Traditionally in August, I do an NFL Preview Rant where I make predictions about the final record for all 32 teams in the NFL along with some other stuff. I did not do that last August because travel scheduling intervened, but I made a few minor sets of predictions.
In any case, now is the time for me to go back and grade my predictions to see if I should be allowed to continue to use my threadbare crystal ball any longer. So, here goes …
In August, I listed 7 coaches who were on a hot seat for 2024. Here is how that turned out:
- Dennis Allen (Saints): Fired in mid-season
- Todd Bowles (Bucs): I said he needed to make the playoffs – – probably meaning winning the division – – to keep his job. And that is exactly what the Bucs did.
- Brian Daboll (Giants): By all reports, he came within a whisker of losing his job earlier this month. Here is foreshadowing:
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- Brian Daboll will be on this list again in 2025
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- Matt Eberflus (Bears): Fired in mid-season
- Mike McCarthy (Cowboys): Fired after season was over
- Nick Siriani (Eagles): I said that for him to keep his job the Eagles “need to make the playoffs as a minimum in 2024.” Well, the Eagles did more than that and he will keep his job.
- Robert Saleh (Jets): Fired in mid-season
- Dave Canales (Panthers): As a first-year coach, I thought his job was safe save for the impetuousness previously shown by the team owner, David Tepper. The Panthers finished 5-12-0 which is an improvement over the 2-15-0 record posted in 2023 – – and Canales has kept his job.
Here is the link to that rant from August 2024 so you can see my full comments if you find that interesting. I completely missed out on Jerrod Mayo and Antonio Pierce as coaches being fired; I thought they would each get more than one season at the helm; they did not. Overall, my only complete miss was Brian Daboll, and I did miss the two “one-and-done coaches” this year. I think that deserves a Grade of B+.
In another rant from August 2024, I looked at the Win Totals futures wagers for the upcoming season and made predictions. There were four “categories” of predictions and here is how they turned out:
- OVERS:
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- Vikes OVER 6.5 wins – – an easy cover; the Vikes were 14-3-0
- Commanders OVER 6.5 wins – – an easy cover; the Commanders were 12-5-0
- Texans OVER 10.5 wins – – ever so close; the Texans were 10-7-0
- Bears OVER 8.5 wins – – forget it; the Bears were 5-12-0
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- Temptation to take the OVER – – but resisted:
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- Broncos OVER 5.5 wins – – an easy cover; the Broncos were 10-7-0
- Jets OVER 9.5 wins – – forget it; the Jets were 5-12-0
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- UNDERS:
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- Cards UNDER 7.5 wins – – ever so close; the Cards were 8-9-0
- Giants UNDER 6.5 wins – – an easy cover; the Giants were 3-14-0
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- Temptation to take the UNDER – – but resisted:
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- Pats UNDER 4.5 wins – – close but it covered; the Pats were 4-13-0
- Titans UNDER 6.5 wins – – an easy cover; the Titans were 3-14-0
- Raiders UNDER 6.5 wins – – an easy cover; the Raiders were 4-13-0
- Bills UNDER 10.5 wins – – forget it; the Bills were 13-4-0
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Here is the link to that rant from August 2024 if you care to see the commentary that went along with those picks. The 6 “Solid Picks” went 3-3 which is no better than a coin flip and which is a loser in Vegas against the vig. The 6 “Temptation Picks” went 4-2 which is a profit even against the vig. If you combine the two categories, the picks were 7-5, which is a betting profit. I think that deserves a Grade of B -minus.
In a third rant in August 2024, I made predictions about teams that might go “Worst-to-First” in their divisions – – and vice versa. Here is how all that played out in the 2024 regular season:
- AFC West: Chiefs – – no way they finish last and they did not by a long shot. Chargers – – 20% chance they finish first. They fished second and made the playoffs but trailed the Chiefs by 4 full games.
- AFC South: Texans – – would take a “monumental sophomore slump” by CJ Stroud to finish last. He regressed a bit, but the Texans still won the division. Titans – – maybe they “escape the cellar” in the division but no way they win it. In fact, they did not even “escape the cellar.
- AFC North: Ravens – – vulnerable because other teams in the division are good. Not to worry, the Ravens won the division once again posting a record of 12-5-0. Bengals – – the return of a healthy Joe Burrow gives them a shot at the top of the division; I thought it was the best chance of all last-place finishers in 2023. The Bengals were 9-8-0 in 2023 and finished 9-8-0 once again in 2024.
- AFC East: Bills – – should expect better competition from Jets in 2024 (yeah, right!) but still too good to finish behind the Pats who were in the cellar in 2023. Pats – – summed it up concisely here; “No way they win the AFC East”.
- NFC West: Niners – – suspected a hangover as “Super Bowl Losers” but not something that would drop them to last in the division. However, that hangover plus a bunch of injuries did just that. The NIners were last in the division at 6-11-0. Cards – – likely to improve on a bad season in 2023, but no way all three other teams in the division crater to get the Cards to the top; no chance here,
- NFC South: Bucs – – may be vulnerable as division champs but will not finish last; they did not; they won the division again and made the playoffs. Panthers – – “No way the Panthers win the NFC South in 2024.”
- NFC North: Lions – – vulnerable because the rest of the division is strong; gave them a 30% chance of first-to-worst. That never came close to happening. Bears – – expected a significant upgrade at QB for a team that won 7 games in 2023; gave them a 30% chance of going “worst-to-first”. That too never came close to happening.
- NFC East: Cowboys – – this was the team I thought was most likely to go “first-to-worst”; the Cowboys finished below .500 which was bad enough to get their coach fired, but the Giants presence in the division made finishing last an impossibility. Commanders – – here is exactly what I said then, “If the defensive secondary can be competent – – it was not in 2023 – – the Commanders could be a big surprise and win the NFC East. I give that proposition a 30% chance.” The secondary was improved but not fully competent; the Commanders finished second in the division at 12-5-0.
Here is the link to those predictions if anyone finds that interesting. My suspicion that the Cowboys and the Niners were vulnerable for a drop this season was a plus along with my call back in August that the Commanders were going to be good in 2024. At the same time, I totally overestimated the Bears, Bengals and Jets. Overall, these predictions deserve a Grade of C -minus.
Also, back in August, I did a rant with the headline:
- College Football Pre-Season Thoughts
These do not necessarily lend themselves to grading as do the NFL Predictions, but I will hit a couple of highlights and lowlights from back then.
I identified 7 college football teams that deserved praise for purging their schedules of division 1-AA opponents. Here are 5 of those 7 teams:
- Arizona St.
- Notre Dame
- Ohio St.
- Penn St.
- Texas
Even after getting rid of any lower-level games on the schedule, those 5 teams all made the CFP field for 2024. Good show gentlemen …
I said the expansion of the CFP to 12 teams could have more first round games that were not “attractive properties for TV networks”. Indeed, the first round of CFP games produced 4 blowout games that were uninteresting.
I wished Kalen DeBoer good luck in his first year at Alabama taking over for legendary Nick Saban. Alabama finished the year with a 9-4 record which would be wonderful in just about anywhere in college football. However, the Crimson Tide has not lost 4 games in a single season since 2007, which was Saban’s first year at Alabama, and they lost 6 games. In Tuscaloosa, I suspect there are a lot of fans who see a 9-4 record as worthy of a D -minus grade…
Nebraska was my “sleeper team” for 2024; the Huskers finished 7-6 and won a minor bowl game.
I also identified three teams to consider playing as Win Totals for the 2024 season. Here is how they turned out:
- Boise St. OVER 9 wins: Boise St. finished 12-2 and made the CFP. This was a comfortable win.
- Florida St. OVER 9.5 wins: This is hugely embarrassing. Here is exactly what I said then, “I like the Seminoles to go OVER 9.5 wins in 2024. I think Florida State is the best team in the ACC and could win 11 games comfortably this year.” What happened is that the Seminoles came apart at the seams and finished 2-10 for the season. Shameful …
- Oklahoma UNDER 7.5 wins: The Sooners finished 6-7 for their first season in the SEC.
Even with the outrageously incorrect assessment of Florida St. those three picks deserve a Grade of B+.
To sum up, I think these predictions were better than average for the 2024 football season despite some horrible miscalculations on my part. It was good enough to convince me to do it again this summer – – Good Lord willing and the creek don’t rise.
Finally, a thought from legendary Notre Dame football coach, Knute Rockne:
“Most men, when they think they are thinking, are merely rearranging their prejudices.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………