Sports Business Notes And Rule Changes

As they say at the end of Election Night TV coverage, the numbers are in.  Well, sports and elections are completely different because when “the numbers are in” applies to the sports world, it means we know how many people tuned in to see a certain event.  So let me look first at this year’s CFP Championship game between Ohio St. and Notre Dame:

• The game was on ESPN, and it attracted 22.2 million viewers.

There is good news and bad news in that result.  The good news is that on a network that is only available in about 50% of US households, the game drew a sizeable audience.  The bad news is that ESPN penetration into US households has been dropping for the last decade or so due to “cord cutting”; so, growing that audience is going to be a tough assignment for the CFP mavens and for ESPN.

Let me put that number in perspective here; 22.2 million viewers compare:

• FAVORABLY to the 15.8 million people who made up the average TV audience for the 2024 MLB World Series.
• FAVORABLY to the 11.8 million viewers who made up the average TV audience for the 2024 NBA Finals
• UNFAVORABLY to any NFL Playoff audience and/or to plenty of ordinary regular season games in the NFL.

Having cited the NFL playoff audience size above, let me expand a bit.  Last weekend there were two NFL Conference Championship Games.  One was wildly “more popular” than the other, but both swamped the CFP Championship game in viewership:

1. Eagles/Commanders:  This was the “less popular game” in the late afternoon time slot on the East Coast.  It drew an average audience of 44.2 million.  Believe it or not, that is a double-digit percentage drop from last year’s Conference Championship Game in the late afternoon time slot on the East Coast.  Nonetheless to a first approximation, the Eagles/Commanders game drew an audience twice the size of the Ohio St./Notre Dame CFP Championship Game.
2. Chiefs/ Bills:  This was the game in the “Prime Time slot” on the East Coast.  It drew an average audience of 57.4 million.  That is a 1% increase over last year’s Conference Championship Game in the “Prime Time slot” on the East Coast.

Other than the very obvious conclusion that the NFL is more popular than the other major US sports, there ought to be consideration given to the network presentation of championship events.  The CFP and the NBA Finals are cable TV events; the World Series and the NFL Playoffs are on far more widely available TV networks.  Maybe there is a message there?

Moving on – – but sticking to NFL and the TV business …  There was a report on ProFootballTalk.com that FOX – – which will do the Super Bowl this year – – uses a variable pricing model for the various commercial time slots during the game.  That would only be a surprise if FOX did not do something like that but there was a note there that made me stop and reread the sentence.  According to the report, FOX says it has sold 10 of the elite time slots for ads at “more than $8M”.  Do the math; five minutes of advertising time in the Super Bowl will bring in $80M for FOX.

Switching gears …  Now that the NFL regular season is over, I have had a full season to observe the new kickoff rules in the NFL.  Here is my assessment for what it is worth:

• I like the fact that the league says that injuries are down.  Of course, the league instituted the rule with the intent of doing that; so, I would like for that simple statement to be audited in some way by an “outside source”.
• I like the fact that more kicks were returned this year.  I have no quantitative data here; it is a qualitative assessment but not one that is not nearly on the margins in my opinion.
• I do not like that the new rule eliminates the “surprise” onside kick completely from the game.  Even though it happened infrequently, it was always something that had to be considered.

That rule change was instituted for one-year only; it was a “trial balloon”.  When the owners meet to consider other rule changes presented by the Competition Committee, they will also vote on whether the new kickoff rule should be made permanent.  It will take a vote of 75% of the owners to retain the new rule; if it does not have that level of support, the NFL will revert back to the longstanding way to administer kickoffs.

And speaking of rule changes …  MLB will have two rule changes for 2025 that are characterized as “tweaks” and not major changes:

1. One rule change allows the replay official some discretion on plays where runners intentionally overrun a potential force play at second base perhaps to allow a run to score from third base on the play.  That seems like a minor thing to me, but it will require some mind-reading on the part of the replay official who must determine when/if a runner has “abandoned the baseline” seeking such a potential advantage.
2. The other rule “tweak” seems to be more than a “tweak”.  MLB is tightening the screws on players who violate the new “shift rule” which prohibits more than two infielders on either side of second base on a play.  Currently, if a defender violates the rule, the penalty is for the team at bat to take the result of the play where the infraction happened or for the batter to be awarded a ball.  Here is what the new rule will do.

• • • • Batter is awarded first base.
      • Baserunners move up.
      • The player violating the rule is charged with an error.

Finally, having mentioned MLB today, let me close with this observation from Bob Ryan – – “the quintessential sportswriter according to Tony Kornheiser”:

“Whoever did not vote for Ichiro Suzuki in the Baseball Hall of Fame election should have his or her voting rights revoked and should be placed under House Arrest because clearly that person is unhinged and a clear danger to Society.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………