Football Friday 1/24/25

There is no need for dancing around it; this is the next-to-last Football Friday for a while.  So, here are the far less than positive results from last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Against the spread =  2-1-2  It doesn’t get better than this
• OVER/UNDERs  =  0-2-0   It can’t get worse than this.
• Parlays  =  0-2  It can be just as bad but not worse.

Enough with the past; now to the present …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

We have our National Champion for the season and the outcome has been determined on the field among a selected group of 12 teams who had good seasons in 2024.  No more pollster derived “national champ”; this time it was head-to-head.  So, obviously, all is well in college football.  As Dandy Don Meredith might say in the obverse:

“All those ifs and buts are candy and nuts

So, what a great Christmas there’ll be.”

And at this point, we have an interjection from Lee Corso:

“Not so fast, my friend …”

What this first expanded field CFP did was to give us 11 football games to focus attention on.  The first four games were not even marginally interesting; the last four games were very interesting; the three in the middle were “good enough”.  The situation in college football today as it regards determining a national champion reminds me of the lyrics of a song by Della Reese from about 50 years ago:

“You came a long way from Saint Louie

But Baby, this is New York city

And you still got a long way to go …”

Having attended a rodeo once in the past, this is not my first one; so, I realize that the powers-that-be in college football recognize that an 11-game tournament generated a bazillion dollars of revenue and that those powers-that-be have already figured out that a 15-game tournament will generate more than a bazillion dollars.  When it comes to dollars, more is always better than less.  Ergo, at some point the CFP will expand again to 16 teams.

Just because I think this is inevitable does not mean that I have to like it.  Adding more teams will open the door to more of the games in the “marginally interesting” category.  Sure, occasionally, the team seeded 16^th will upset the team seeded 1^st; we have seen that in March Madness; it will happen here too every once in a while.  But most of those games will be yawners.  If the world were to make the huge mistake of making me the College Football Czar, I would contract the CFP to 8 teams and put up with the cries and wails from a handful of schools every year who will claim to have been snubbed by the selectors.

Now that I have “settled” the concept of the ideal CFP going forward, let me ask a question and ponder the future for a moment here:

• None of the four teams that played in the semi-finals of the CFP this year won their conference; in fact, two of them lost their conference championship game.  So, has the CFP diminished the value of those conference championship games and even the concept of being a “conference champion”?
• With all the added revenue flowing into college football via the CFP, the fundamental nature of college football has changed to make it minor league professional football.  [Aside:  A friend calls it “Triple-A Football”; he is not wrong.]  Is that an unalloyed benefit?

For the minor conferences, the championships matter to the teams and their followers.  In August when the college football season starts, there may be a few delusional fans in places like the Sun Belt Conference or the Mountain West Conference or the MAC who ponder that their school will emerge as national champion.  That is a Hollywood script and not rationality.  In those conferences and for those schools, winning the conference championship is a big deal and will likely continue to be a big deal.  In the MAC this year, Ohio won the regular season and the championship game and then a minor bowl game to finish the season at 11-3 overall.  My guess is that fans of the Bobcats felt very good about that outcome even though no one gave a second thought to the team as a national champion contender.

In the major conferences, there might be a different story.  Winning the regular season title and/or the conference championship game is normally going to be a steppingstone to an invitation to the CFP.  A poor showing in the CFP will definitely take some of the luster off that conference championship.  As an example, consider Oregon this year; the Ducks were undefeated in Big-10 games and then won the conference championship game; Oregon got a BYE in the CFP and then had their doors blown off by Ohio State.  I doubt that Oregon fans are despondent about the season; I also doubt they are euphoric.

Regarding the changes that may accrue to college football from the massive influx of revenue, I wonder if some fans will be turned off by the evolution of “college football” into “Triple-A football”.  And the evolution has already started and will likely accelerate over the next several years.  Players are now mercenaries more often than not; they are signed to NIL contracts that contain provisions for them to play football at Whatsamatta U and they are generally free agents every couple of months when the Transfer Portal opens, and they can – – subject to the terms of their NIL contracts – – change teams.

In essence, Triple-A football identifies teams with schools and not with municipalities; is that going to be OK with fans?  More importantly, will that be OK with the people who tune in to watch games because that is where the big money is?  My guess is that fans will adjust to the change and accept it sufficiently to remain loyal fans – – but that is a guess and nothing more.

And the explosion of revenue that has been the driver for turning college football into Triple-A football brings me back to a position that I have held for more than 35 years:

• Collegiate Athletic Departments are sports franchises attached to universities, and they pay no taxes on those revenues because they are “school affiliated”. 

That sleight of hand may have worked in the days of the NCAA fantasy regarding “student athletes” who are in college pursuing a degree and who find time in their busy academic life to participate in athletics as an extra-curricular activity.  Somehow, that doesn’t work today when there are reports of some athletes getting 7-figure NIL deals to change teams – – er, schools.  Here is my position:

• Athletic Departments need to incorporate on their own. 
• They can choose to be attached to schools or not. 
• They need to be taxed on their revenues minus expenses as audited by competent auditors. 
• Donations to Athletic Departments by boosters or alums cannot be deducted from the tax returns of the donors because the Athletic Department is not an educational institution.

Were that to happen, the evolution of college football into Triple-A football would be completed.  And at that point another question arises.  At that point, the NFL would have an extensive network of “minor-league football teams” in every state in the union.  The NFL would also enjoy the existence of that minor league football league that plays in the Spring as another player developmental entity for which the NFL would need to play nothing.  So, if all that were to come to pass:

• Is ”college football” really Triple-A football or is the United Football League the higher-level minor league?
• Is college football morphing into Triple-A football or Double-A football?

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            Going into last week’s playoff games, the Washington Commanders were the NFC team who had been left out of the NFC Championship Game for the longest time; they had not been there since 1991.  With the Commanders’ win over the Lions, that absentee streak will be broken on Sunday.  Now the NFC team who had been absent from the NFC championship game will be:

• “America’s Team” – – the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys last appearance in the NFC Championship game was in 1996 when they beat the Packers.  To give you an idea of how long ago that was, the two opposing QBs that day were Troy Aikman and Brett Favre.

The finalists for various NFL Awards have been announced.  Here are some of them with my selection:

For MVP:

• Josh Allen – – my pick
• Saquon Barkley
• Joe Burrow
• Jared Goff
• Lamar Jackson

For Offensive Player of the Year:

• Saquon Barkley – – my pick
• Joe Burrow
• Ja’Mar Chase
• Derrick Henry
• Lamar Jackson

For Defensive Player of the Year:

• Zach Baun
• Myles Garrett – – my pick
• Trey Hendrickson
• Patrick Surtain II
• TJ Watt

For Offensive Rookie of the Year

• Brock Bowers
• Jayden Daniels – – my pick
• Malik Nabors
• Bo Nix
• Brian Thomas, Jr.

For Defensive Rookie of the Year:

• Cooper DeJean
• Braden Fiske
• Quinyon Mitchell
• Chop Robinson
• Jared Verse – – my pick

For Coach of the Year:

• Dan Campbell
• Kevin O’Connell
• Sean Payton
• Dan Quinn
• Andy Reid – – my pick, but I cannot argue against any of these candidates

For Comeback Player of the Year

• Joe Burrow – – my pick
• Sam Darnold
• JK Dobbins
• Christian Gonzales
• Damar Hamlin

 

Games This Week:

 

Commanders at Eagles – 6 (48):  The Washington Commanders are the embodiment of a line from the movie, The Blues Brothers.  They can claim with credibility that they are “on a mission from God” for this season.  Every bounce of the ball and every “50/50” play seems to have gone in their favor ever since the Hail Mary win over the Bears back in October.  I said it before:

• It is better to be lucky than proficient.
• It is even better to be lucky AND proficient.
• The Commanders are both…

Jalen Hurts tweaked his knee/leg/ankle in last week’s win over the Rams; he was limping noticeably at the end of the game.  Was it a bump; was it something serious that will limit his mobility this week?  The spread of 6 points – – up from an opening level of 5 points – – indicates that it will not be a significant part of this game.  Both Hurts and Eagles DB, Quinyon Mitchell had “full practices” this week indicating they are ready to play.  I have come to believe that the football gods are fully behind the Commanders this season as their way of thumbing their nose at departed owner Danny Boy Snyder who will only be able to watch the “new kid on the block” have his team in the Super Bowl.  I like the Commanders plus the points AND I like the Commanders on the Money Line at +240; put those in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

Bills at Chiefs – 2 (48):  Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe we have seen these two teams meet under playoff circumstances in the past.  The Bills beat the Chiefs earlier this year in Buffalo; this game is in KC.  Here is a stat I ran across that is stunning:

• For the 2024 season to date, the Bills have turned the ball over only 8 times.

I think it is time for “Josh Allen & Co.” to beat “Mahomes Ltd” who have won the last 3 playoff meetings between the teams.  Give me the Bills plus the points and give me the Bills on the Money Line at +115; put those in the “Betting Bundle”.

Obviously, since I like both underdogs to win outright, I must like a parlay of those two “plus-money” wagers:

• Commanders @ +240
• Bills @ +115     $100 wager to win $631.

Also, there is one player proposition bet I like this week:

• Josh Allen to score a TD in the game at minus-115     $100 wager to win $90.

            Finally, words from Vince Lombardi:

“Some people try to find things in this game that don’t exist but football is only two things – blocking and tackling.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………