This is the time of the year when the football season – – which began in August with Georgia Tech beating Florida St. in Dublin, Ireland – – sheds all the baggage and has the best teams stepping forward for action. In terms of quantity and quality together, this is the best football weekend of the season. Counting last night’s CFP game, in a 96-hour timespan, there schedule holds two excellent college football matchups, and 6 NFL playoff games scheduled such that no two games overlap in time – – pending the need to reschedule the game in LA due to wildfires. It is an orgy of football.
Ergo this is not merely a Football Friday; consider this an orgiastic version of Football Friday. Don’t just let the good times roll; kick it up a notch [Hat tip to Emeril Lagasse] and revel in the pure football hedonism this weekend represents.
Having said that, I must begin this week on a down note. There was no “Betting Bundle” last week but I did propose a four-legged Money Line Parlay then. That wager bit the dust when the Atlanta Falcons lost by giving up 44 points to the Carolina Panthers. But enough negativity …
College Football Commentary:
Over the last several years of conference realignments, there have been some big geographic swings as the major conferences have acquired larger and larger footprints. Every time I see Stanford or Cal playing in an Atlantic Coast Conference game a shiver goes down my spine. Well, it appears as if that contagion has spread to the minor collegiate conferences now. Earlier this week came the announcement that the Huskies of Northern Illinois will not be playing MAC football beyond next season; instead, Northern Illinois will join the Mountain West Conference for football competition.
Ever since Michigan upset Ohio St. right after Thanksgiving, there have been reports saying that there is unhappiness among the supporters of Buckeyes’ football about Ryan Day as the leader of the program. Ryan Day’s record at Ohio St. is 68-10; yes, Ohio St. always schedules a couple of cupcake games, but in his 6 years on the job in Columbus, Ryan Day has beaten 87% of the opponents presented to him and his team. Yes, he has lost 4 consecutive games to Michigan; no, it is unreasonable to label him as “sufficiently deficient” and thereby justify firing him.
I know this will not happen, but I can still wish for it to happen. As of this moment, I am rooting for Ohio St. to win the CFP and be crowned as the National Champion. And when they hand the trophy to Ryan Day and put a microphone in front of him, I would love for him to tell everyone in Columbus to take a hike because he has had enough of their negativity, and he is going to go and find a coaching job elsewhere. If done in a quiet and measured tone of voice, he need not amplify his message with an extended middle finger in the face of those who think he is less than satisfactory.
Before we get to the games this weekend, I want to comment on two events related to the college football coaches’ game of musical chairs that takes place every December/January. I know that Bill Belichick going to UNC is the biggest element in that saga, but there are two other events that have coaches “going home”:
- Scott Frost is returning to UCF next year. He was the coach there in 2016 and 2017; he went to bowl games both years and UCF posted a 13-0 record in 2017. Frost played QB for Nebraska, and that undefeated season at UCF got him the job leading the Cornhuskers starting in 2018. That simply did not work out at all; he was fired in the middle of his fifth season at Nebraska and had a record of 16-31 there. Now he is going back to Orlando to resume his coaching career at UCF. He will find one big difference when he gets there. Back in 2016 and 2017, UCF played against American Athletic Conference opponents; in 2025, UCF will play against Big-12 Conference opponents.
- Rich Rodriguez is returning to West Virginia; those country roads have taken him home. Rodriguez coached the Mountaineers for 7 years about 20 years ago posting a cumulative record of 61-26 there and winning the Big East Conference championship 4 times. He left West Virginia to take the job at Michigan and his departure sparked lawsuits and rancor; his three years at Michigan were unproductive with an overall record of 15-22. After that he spent 6 years at Arizona with middling success. Then after a 5-year hiatus, he went to Division 1-AA Jax St. where his teams went 27-10 and won their conference twice. As in Scott Frost’s case, Rodriguez will not find a “Big East Schedule” in front of him in 2025; West Virginia is now in the Big 12.
And, as luck would have it, UCF and West Virginia will play each other in Orlando next year. It’s like a Hollywood screenplay…
There was one situation where a coach was not fired when I expected him to be fired. Trent Dilfer has been the coach at UAB for two seasons; the cumulative record there is 7-17 and in 2024 there were some truly ugly losses such as:
- La-Monroe 32 UAB 6
- Navy 41 UAB 18
- Tulane 71 UAB 20
- Army 44 UAB 10
- Memphis 53 UAB 18
The decision at UAB is to run it back at least one more time with Trent Dilfer on the sidelines. I suspect the results next year will have to be a tad more competitive when the team loses…
CFP Games
Last night, Notre Dame advanced to the CFP Final Game beating Penn St. 27-24. A few observations:
- For about the first 25 minutes, Penn St. was in charge. For about the next 25 minutes, Notre Dame was in charge. The game was tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter.
- Notre Dame was clearly the better team in the 4th quarter.
- If you like Micah Parsons as an edge rusher in the NFL, you ought to like Penn St. DE, Abdul Carter too.
- Some commentators have suggested that the Lions’ QB, Drew Allar, should reconsider his decision to come back to college football next year; he should declare for the Draft in a thin QB class for 2025. I think that would be a huge mistake for Allar; his accuracy, his arm strength and his “decision-making” last night would probably have made him a third-day pick come April.
- The Notre Dame defense has no “stars”, but it does have about 15 players who are all well above average in terms of competence – – and they play team defense very well.
Ohio St. – 6 vs Texas (50.5): I think the oddsmakers have this game pegged wrong; I think this game will be an offensive display. Yes, I know that both defenses are ranked in the Top 3 in Total Defense this year, but I also know that Quinn Ewers and Will Howard are two QBs who are both on a roll. I think the difference in the game will be Ohio St. freshman WR, Jeremiah Smith who is already a certified monster on the field. I like Ohio St. to win and cover AND I like the game to go OVER – – and – – I’ll put those two bets in on a same-game parlay; put all of that in the “Betting Bundle”.
NFL Commentary:
Dan Orlovsky was one of the color analysts for the Steelers/Bengals game last week. While I do not mind him at all in his “studio persona”, he was maximally annoying on that broadcast. He would not/did not ever shut up and he raved about plays and happenings in the game that were pretty pedestrian. ESPN should never have allowed that to go on for a full game; ESPN must not allow that to happen in any future games. I am a full-fledged supporter of the First Amendment guaranteeing free speech – – but I think Orlovsky’s performance was a violation of that right.
Sam Darnold has clearly had the best year of his football life this season. Darnold was the overall #3 draft pick (by the Jets) in 2018. Going into this season, his record as a starter was a less-than-stellar 21-35-0; in 2024, his record as a starter is 14-3-0. So, is that an indication of his natural talent maturing and emerging – – or is it a mirage?
In the last offseason, Darnold signed a 1-year contract for a guaranteed $8.75M with the Vikes. He will be an unrestricted free agent on March 10 when the NFL’s open signing period begins – – unless the Vikes sign him before then or unless they put a franchise tag on him. The fact that the Vikes’ coaches have that period of “exclusivity” to deal with Darnold may provide a good answer to the question above. If they think this was a mirage, they will probably let him walk without a serious attempt to sign him and cast their lot with JJ McCarthy who they drafted in the first round last April. If they think 2024 was a serious indication of Darnold becoming a certified franchise QB, that changes things a lot …
Do not be too hasty in judging Darnold based on his first several years in the NFL. Please recall Jim Plunkett who started out on a very mediocre career trajectory but who was a “late-bloomer” and managed to get two Super Bowl rings and one Super Bowl MVP award once “the blossom” had emerged.
The Titans fired their GM, Ran Carthon this week; he had been the Titans’ GM since January 2023. Here is part of the statement from Titans’ owner Amy Adams Strunk regarding that decision:
“I’ve loved the time I’ve spent with Ran. He’s a talented football mind, a great man, and friend to everyone along his path.
“It’s impossible to ignore that our football team hasn’t improved over the past two years. I am deeply disappointed in our poor win-loss record during this period, of course, but my decision also speaks to my concern about our long-term future should we stay the course.
“I love this team more than you can imagine. To our fans: we know this level of performance isn’t acceptable. We’re humbled by your support as we continue to work towards building the team you expect and deserve.”
She made the “firing announcement” about her. Really? That got me to thinking about her other actions as a team owner and then it hit me:
- Last year – – when Ran Carthon and then head coach Mike Vrabel could not play in the same playpen – – she fired Vrabel and kept Carthon.
- Now, she shifts blame to the Front Office.
- Meanwhile, she asserts her love for the team and her humility.
It seems to me that with Danny Boy Snyder out of the picture, there needs to be some consensus built around who is now the worst NFL owner. While he was among those in the inner circle of the NFL, the trophy was retired permanently in the Washington DC area. Not so in 2025 … So here are my four candidates for worst owner currently in the NFL in alphabetical order:
- Mark Davis (Raiders): If he has made a good hiring decision in the last decade, it surely does not come to mind quickly.
- Jimmy Haslett (Browns): The trade for Deshaun Watson and then the contract handed to Watson guarantee Haslett a spot on this list.
- Woody Johnson (Jets): Since 2000, he has had 7 head coaches and none of them finished with a winning record for the Jets; since 2000 he has had 6 different GMs providing rosters to those 7 head coaches who left with losing records.
- Amy Adams Strunk: See above …
If I were to create a “Dishonorable Mention” list to accompany the list above, I would include the McCaskeys (Bears), Jim Irsay (Colts) and David Tepper (Panthers).
Looking at the seven owners on my combined list there, notice that two of the seven are in the AFC South Division. That division seems always to be an afterthought when it comes to fan focus outside the local areas of the individual teams. Moreover, it has been a while since a significant playoff threat has emerged from that division; maybe you have to go all the way back to the days of Peyton Manning with the Colts to encounter such a situation.
The AFC South has always seemed to me to be the NFL’s version of the “junk drawer” that we have in our kitchen. If something does not “fit” with anything else logically, then stick it in the “junk drawer” and we can find it there if we ever go looking for it. [Aside: My long-suffering wife objects to my “junk drawer” label; she prefers to call it “The Drawer of Many Things.” Po-TAY-toe … Po-TAH-toe.]
Let me break down the AFC South here for a moment:
- Colts: In what delusional state must one reside to consider Indianapolis as part of “The South”?
- Jags: At least, they are geographically in “The South” but they are also irrelevant more seasons than not.
- Titans: For a team that has made the playoffs 10 times in 25 seasons, it has an amazingly small national following.
- Texans: An expansion team that has made the playoffs 8 times but never made it to the Conference Championship Game. Meh!
Here are a few comments on games from last week – – many of which were meaningless:
Commanders 23 Cowboys 19: Jayden Daniels got the second half off but backup QB, Marcus Mariota led a late fourth quarter drive to produce the winning TD putting the Commanders in the playoffs as the 6th seed in the NFC.
Broncos 39 Chiefs Junior Varsity 0: Ask a random sample of people on the street to name 3 players on the Chiefs’ roster this year and make a list. Any name on that list did not appear in this game. Some folks assert that the Chiefs “threw the game” to assure that the red-hot Bengals could not be in the playoffs.
“Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?
“The Shadow knows…”
Panthers 44 Falcons 38: The Falcons needed to win this and to have the Bucs lose. Neither event happened.
Bucs 29 Saints 19: The Bucs did what they needed to do to win the division and make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.
Seahawks 30 Rams Junior Varsity 25: The Rams had clinched a playoff spot, so they rested Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. However, no conspiracy theories have emerged here…
Bears 24 Packers 22: The important outcome from this game is that Packers WR, Christian Watson tore his ACL and is out for the balance of the playoffs. QB Jordan Love injured his elbow also, but he is expected to play this week.
Pats 23 Bills 16: Two weeks ago, the Giants pulled off an upset that relinquished the overall #1 pick in the Draft to the Pats; last week, the Pats emulated that generosity with this win handing the overall #1 pick in April to the Titans.
Games This Week:
Just for the record, there are no Dog-Breath Games on the card this week.
(Sat. 4:30PM ET) Chargers – 2 at Texans (42.5) : The Chargers lead the NFL in scoring defense; if “defense wins championships”, the results of these playoffs would seem to be a foregone conclusion. The Texans won their division, but they have not looked nearly as good this year as they did last year. Injuries to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs tanked the offense; the Texans played teams with winning records six times this year and won only one of those encounters. The Chargers have a history of coughing up a hairball at a critical time in do-or-die games; Jim Harbaugh is there to change that history – – if the football gods will permit. Justin Herbert has never won a playoff game; that is another historical element that could be changed here – – if the football gods will permit. I like the Chargers to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sat. 8:00PM ET) Steelers at Ravens – 10.5 (43.5): When you go looking for this game on TV, it will be streaming on Amazon Prime Video even though it is not a Thursday Night game. The Steelers are in a tailspin; they have not looked good for the last month; in their last 4 games (all losses), the Steelers have averaged just a smidgen over 14 points per game. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been on a tear late in the season. However, it must be noted that Lamar Jackson has been in 6 playoff game situations and has only won twice. Basically, this is a third meeting between these AFC North teams, and they have split the first two. I have a personal policy which requires that I refrain from selections in NFL games with double-digit spreads. I will just sit back and watch these two teams slug it out on each other.
(Sun. 1:00PM ET) Broncos at Bills – 8.5 (47): The weather forecast for Sunday in Buffalo is for “snow showers” (whatever that means in Buffalo NY) and temps around freezing. Often teams traveling to Buffalo in December/January need to play in conditions that are unfamiliar; in this case, the Broncos have an idea what snow and cold weather are all about. The Bills were 8-0 at home this year; the Broncos were 4-5 on the road. This is the first NFL playoff game for Bo Nix, but it is hardly a novelty for Josh Allen. I think the fundamental challenge in this game is for the Broncos’ defense; can they keep the game from turning into a track meet? The oddsmakers think it can according to that Total Line. I think the Bills are going to win the game, but I like the Broncos’ defense to keep it close and keep it near that modest Total Line; so, give me the Broncos plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sun. 4:30PM ET) Packers at Eagles – 4.5 (45): This is a rematch from the first game of this year’s NFL season when these two teams met in Sao Paulo, Brazil; the Eagles won that game 34-29. The Packers got to the playoffs this year despite losing 5 of their 6 division games. The absence of Christian Watson will affect the Packers’ aerial game, and I assume that Jordan Love sat out the second half of last week’s game simply as a precaution and not due to a serious elbow injury. The Eagles will have Jalen Hurts back at QB after he spent two weeks in the concussion protocol; has any “rust” accumulated during that absence? I think this will be a close game; I do not think there will be anywhere near the 63 points scored by these two teams against each other as back in September; I’ll take the Packers plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sun. 8:00PM ET) Commanders at Bucs – 3 (50): This is the Game of the Week. The Commanders averaged 27 points per game this year; the Bucs averaged 28 points per game this year. The Commanders will score points; the question mark for them is the defense. The Bucs beat the Lions and the Eagles this year; the Bucs also lost to the Cowboys and the Falcons (twice) this year. Assuming the “good Bucs” show up here, I think this game will challenge the scoreboard operator to keep up; so, I’ll take the game to go OVER, and I’ll take the Commanders plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Mon. 8 :00PM ET) Vikes – 1 at Rams (48): Sam Darnold had a bad outing last week against the Lions; there is no way to sugarcoat that fact. The question here is:
- Was that a one-off or was that too big a moment for him?
We know what to expect from the Rams and we pretty much know what to expect from the Vikes’ pressure defense. What is up in the air here is the Vikes’ offense and how well Sam Darnold can make it operate. I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- Ohio St. – 6 over Texas
- Ohio St./Texas OVER 50.5
- Same Game Parlay of those two bets above to win $264.
- Chargers – 2 over Texans
- Broncos + 8.5 against Bills
- Packers + 4.5 against Eagles
- Commanders +3 against Bucs
- Commanders/Bucs OVER 50
- Vikes/Rams OVER 48
With a nine-element “Betting Bundle”, I don’t think I need any Money Line Parlays this week…
Finally, words of wisdom from Vince Lombardi:
“If you can accept losing, you can’t win.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………