Football Friday 1/3/25

Happy New Year, everyone.  I get to kick off ranting in 2025 – – so to speak – – with the first Football Friday of the year on the first Friday of the year.  As the first order of business, I will review last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads and Totals went 4-2-0.  I’ll take that percentage every week.
• Money Line Parlays went 2-1; “Profit = $181.  Muy Bueno!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The College Football Playoff needs structural repair.  The four first round games produced four blowout results that were less than entertaining.  Please do not tell me that the Notre Dame/Indiana game had only a 10-point differential and that is not a blowout.  With 2 minutes to play in the game, the score was 27-3; that game was indeed a blowout.

Then came Round 2 – – where the top seeds would enter the fray.  That is where and when the drama would reach a crescendo.  Not so.  Penn St. and Ohio St. dominated their opponents.  At least Texas/Arizona St. and Notre Dame/Georgia produced some moments of uncertainty for fans watching at home without a direct rooting interest in the outcomes.  Two “good games” out of “eight games played to date” is not compelling TV – – and it is only for the capture of TV money that this 12-team playoff exists.

The top four seeds by the Selection Committee – – albeit with some seeding rules handed to them without any escape clauses – – all took gas this week.  Boise St. did not belong in the field; it was there to avoid shutting out the “minor conferences”; the CFP will always have one such participant.  The derogatory term for this in the business world is that Boise St. was a “quota hire” to fill a vacancy that they were not fully prepared to function in prosperously.  The same label could be applied to Clemson, Indiana and SMU which I discussed last week; without those four teams, the field could have been 8 teams, and no one would have gotten a BYE Week over the Holidays.

There is a simple mathematical truth to consider here.  To have a balanced and symmetrical field for a single elimination playoff/tournament, one must have:

• An even number of teams – – AND – –
• That “even number” must represent a integer power of the number 2.

[Aside:  2¹ = 2  2² = 4  2³ = 8  2⁴ = 16  2⁵ = 32  2⁶ = 64 …]

The 12-team field in this year’s CFP fulfills the first condition above but not the second.  What should happen is that the CFP field should shrink to 8 teams; what is going to happen is that the field will expand to 16 teams.  The cash flow from the added games will not allow for the number of games to be televised to decrease.  However, I want you to think about something here; pretend for a moment that this year’s field was 16 and not 12.  What that would mean is that four teams that the Selection Committee evaluated to be inferior to Boise St., Clemson, Indiana and SMU would have been in the field.  Do not ask me to lead the charge for something like that to happen because I think that is moving in the wrong direction.

I also have a problem with the Selection Committee itself that probably cannot be solved.  Currently there are 13 members on that Committee

• Six of the thirteen are Athletic Directors at Division 1-A schools
• One of the thirteen is an Assistant Professor at a university
• One of the thirteen is fully employed by NFL Legends.
• Five of the thirteen are long-time college football coaches who are now fully retired.

The five football coaches could – – if they chose to do so – – spend 40 hours a week reviewing game film from the top 25 or so teams in the country and by the end of November they would have an expertise-based focus on the selection and seeding of the best teams.  I don’t know if those coaches actually do anything of the sort – – but they might choose to do so and I would totally defer to their judgment if they did.

The other 8 members of the Selection Committee have full-time jobs, many of which demand a minimum of 40 hours a week.  I suggest that those members cannot – – even if they really wanted to do so – – spend another 40 hours in a film room reviewing play on the field.  Let me put this in personal terms:

• I watch a lot of college football on TV.
• I watch You Tube highlights of notorious plays and highlights from special games
• I read stat sheets and observations from folks covering lots of games.
• None of this makes me competent to be on the Selection Committee!
• And if that is what those other 8 members of the Committee can bring to the table, then they too are not in the right position as “Selectors”.

I know that sounds like a giant “Hot Take” that I hope to get picked up on some other website that might make it go viral; that is NOT the case.  I have been thinking along these lines for a couple of years now, but this year’s performance by the selected teams and the seeded teams gives me the opportunity to bring my thinking out into the open.

Let me be clear about one thing here.  I AM NOT saying that unless you played the game of college football, your opinions and evaluations are unworthy.  What I AM SAYING is that if  you are going to contribute meaningfully and positively to a discussion about the best twelve or sixteen football teams in the country, you need to have seen all of them play more than a few highlight plays and you need to have seen a few other teams that just might be on the fringe of being in that Top-Twelve or Top-Sixteen.  And if one has a full-time job, I do not think there are enough hours in a week for that person to do the work necessary to be a fully informed “selector”.

I realize I can be proven wrong; I submit that this year’s CFP field and CFP seedings do not come close to proving me wrong.

I also want to comment on something that has come into clear focus for me in the 8 CFP games to date:

• There are way too many “plays under review” … AND …
• Far too many of the reviews that take two minutes to “adjudicate” are clear and obvious calls once one looks at one or two of the replays.  Maybe they could consume 20-30 seconds of delay.
• It is almost as if – – not really but it sure seems like it – – the officials “upstairs” have a quota of reviews to suggest in order to get commercial breaks in for the networks.

Here are some comments on last week’s CFP games:

Notre Dame 23  Georgia 10:  If you like defense, this was a game for you.  Neither team gained 300 yards of Total Offense in the game; Notre Dame won the game averaging only 4.0 yards per offensive play.  The Bulldogs outgained the Irish by 50 yards and the Bulldogs were penalized by 42 fewer yards than the Irish.  Nonetheless, Notre Dame won on the strength of forcing two turnovers and returning the second half kickoff for a TD.  Last week, Notre Dame simply dominated Indiana; they did not dominate Georgia in this game but won handily based on hustle and focus.

Texas 39  Arizona St. 31 (2OT):  It looked as if Texas would run Arizona St. out of town in the first quarter and then it looked as if Texas settled down to an attitude of a cat playing with captured prey – – and it almost cost them the game.  The Sun Devils were the Rocky Balboas of the tournament; they got pounded and pounded – – but they never gave up and they came back to deliver punishing blows of their own sending the game to OT.  Like the fictional Rocky Balboa, the Sun Devils went the distance with Texas…

Ohio St. 41  Oregon 21:  Ladies and gentlemen, Ohio St. WR, Jeremiah Smith, is a freshman; he just turned 19 years old, and his stats for the day were 7 receptions for 187 yards and 2 TDs.  Oregon was undefeated coming into the game but were run out of town on a rail in this one.  With 3 minutes left in the first half, the Buckeyes led 34-0.  For the game, Ohio St. outgained Oregon 500 yards to 297 yards.

Penn St. 31  Boise St. 14:  The Nittany Lions defensive thrust for the game was to make sure Ashton Jeanty did not run wild and beat them; if the Broncos’ QB, Maddux Madsen, could produce a game capable of victory without Jeanty dominating, then so be it.  The Penn St. defensive philosophy worked quite well earlier this week.  Penn St. TE, Tyler Warren, has been on my NFL Draft watch list prior to this game but I now think he could easily be a Top Ten pick next April.

One note I read yesterday is that Alabama QB, Jalen Milroe has declared for the NFL Draft this year.  He certainly has had good coaching and has had experience playing at the top level of college football, but color me skeptical that he is ready for a prominent role at the NFL level just yet.  Now, in his favor, this is a very thin cadre of QBs coming out this year and perhaps his thinking is that he will compare favorably to the top QBs in the draft this year more readily than perhaps next year.  Even so …

Another college QB made some unusual news last week.  Dillon Gabriel is the QB for Oregon and based on this statement made to a TV station in Portland, he is not into “old school football”:

“We love the Rose Bowl.  We love warm weather.  I think we should play more games on nice grass instead of artificial stuff. The more sun the better.

“Why do we do it to ourselves? Do fans want to sit in the snow and the rain?

Let’s make arenas. Let’s make domes. More grass. Let’s do more fireworks at games. Yeah, let’s do that.”

Ignoring for just a moment the difficulties of growing natural grass in domed arenas, let me just say that it would be a great irony if Gabriel were to be drafted by a team like the Jets or the Giants or the Browns or even the Steelers (who need QBs).  In case you did not know, Dillon Gabriel is from Hawaii – – so perhaps his aversion to snow and freezing weather is forgivable.

 

The CFP Semi-Finals:

 

Both games will happen before the next weekend, so the lines and the totals here are VERY early ones that could change dramatically in the next 6 or 7 days.

(Thurs, Jan 9^th)  Notre Dame – 2 vs Penn St. (46):  The injury status for Penn St. DE, Abdul Carter is very important here; he is as good an edge rusher/DE as I have seen in college football this year.  If he can play – – injury is healed – – I like the game to stay UNDER; if he cannot play or cannot play at nearly his normal level, I like Notre Dame to win and cover.

(Fri Jan 10^th) Ohio St. – 6 vs Texas (52):  Here are the pertinent questions for this game:

• Was Ohio St. super-excited to steamroller Oregon because they lost to Oregon earlier this year?  Ohio St. never lost to Texas earlier this year.
• Did Texas take Arizona St. lightly and lose their edge once they went up by 2 scores early in the game?  If they “lose their edge” against Ohio St. it will be fatal.

I love the Texas defense, and I love the Ohio St. offense.  I have no interest in making a pick in this game thereby forcing me to root for a predetermined outcome.  I just want to watch this one intently and focused.  If you care which way I am leaning in this game, I would take Ohio St. on the Money Line.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            I think it is pretty clear that the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year will be Jayden Daniels and having seen him in about 12 of his 16 games so far, he would be my choice for that honor.  Having said that, let me present some stats for another offensive rookie who seems to have done his business well outside the focus of the spotlight.  Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders – – a team that has been irrelevant to the NFL in 2024 save for their role as an “opposing team” to other squads in the league.

Last year, when talking about the Heisman Trophy and the NFL Draft, I said that the Trophy would go to a QB and that I thought Jayden Daniels deserved that award.  I also said that I thought the “best football player” I waw for the year was Brock Bowers.  So, fast forward to today and let’s take a look at Bowers‘ stats as a rookie TE for the Raiders:

• In 16 games, Bowers had been targeted 144 times and caught 108 passes.  That is a 75% success rate.
• Bowers has 1144 yards receiving or 10.6 yards per reception.
• Bowers has 4 TDs and 58 receptions resulting in a first down.
• Oh, by the way, he is also a very competent blocker as a tight end …

Seen in isolation, you can consider these stats overly optimistic or not much more than hum-drum; so let me give you some comparisons:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-shelf WR.  He has 109 receptions and 1186 yards receiving; that is one more catch and 42 more yards than Bowers who is a TE.
• CeeDee Lamb is a top-shelf WR.  He has 101 catches and 1194 yards receiving; that is 7 fewer catches and 50 more yards than Bowers who is a TE.
• Garrett Wilson is a top-shelf WR.  He has 97 catches and 1053 yards receiving which is11 fewer receptions and 91 fewer yards than Bowers who is a TE.

So, where are Bowers’ stats compared to other tight ends?

• Travis Kelce – – you’ve heard of him – – has 97 receptions for 823 yards; that is 11 fewer catches for 321 fewer yards.
• George Kittle – – you’ve heard of him – – has 76 receptions for 1079 yards; that is 32 fewer catches for 65 fewer yards.

I think you get the idea here.  Brock Bowers is a damned good football player and can make up for the fact that the people throwing the ball in his direction have been Gardner Minshew, Aiden O’Connell and Desmond Ridder.  Let me just say that none of those three passers will ever be confused with Patrick Mahomes at any point in the present tense or the future tense.

Brock Bowers is an outstanding football player; recognize it.  He has already broken Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end and if he snags 9 balls in his final game this week, he will eclipse Zach Ertz’ record for most catches by a tight end in a season.

Soon, the NFL Coach of the Year will be identified.  There are only 32 possible candidates for the award and so I will take the liberty to identify – – alphabetically – – my Top-25% of the candidates for this season.  You can add or subtract from this list as you please:

1. Dan Campbell:  His team is 14-2; you may think he is raving yahoo, but he has his team winning games with significant folks on IR.
2. Jim Harbaugh:  The Chargers have been an underachieving bunch of stuff for years now; Harbaugh has the Chargers at 10-6 with a guaranteed playoff slot in his first year there.
3. Sean McDermott:  The Bills are 13-3 so far and continue to dominate the AFC East.
4. Sean McVay:  The Rams are 10-6; they have clinched the NFC West title despite starting the season at 1-4 including a loss to the Bears and a blowout loss to the Cards.
5. Kevin O’Connell:  His team is 14-2; it may seem as if they are doing it with smoke and mirrors, but it has been sustained for an awfully long time now.
6. Sean Payton:  Coming off a disastrous season last year and with a rookie QB, the Broncos are 9-7 and still have a realistic shot to make the playoffs this year.
7. Dan Quinn:  His Commanders are relevant in January which is a major vector heading deviation from recent years.
8. Andy Reid:  If you need something tangible to accept this nomination, consider the record is 15-1 which is better than anyone else’s.

Tons of attention has been paid to Saquon Barkley and the single-season rushing record; the decision is that the Eagles will not play Barkley against the Giants this week so that record will stand.  However, there is another record by an NFL “All-Timer” that could be matched this week, and it has gotten only passing mention by comparison:

• Mike Evans needs 85 yards receiving this week to reach 1,000 yards.  If he does so, that will be the 10^th consecutive season with that receiving total in his first 10 seasons in the NFL.  The only other player to do that is Jerry Rice.

Here are comments on some of the games from last weekend.

Lions 40  Niners 28:  I think the most important thing about this game was the Brock Purdy threw for 377 yards and 3 TDs in the game and kept it sufficiently interesting until the middle of the second half.  The Niners season has imploded on them; the Lions will go to the playoffs hoping their defense does not implode any further.

Giants 45  Colts 33:  The Giants had lost 10 games in a row when they kicked off here and then Drew Lock did his John Unitas imitation.  Lock was 17 of 23 for 309 yards with 4 TDs and zero INTs.  Oh yeah, he also ran for a TD.  This offensive explosion dropped the Giants draft order from overall #1 to overall #4.  If the Colts are not feeling humiliated by this performance, they should.

Eagles 41  Cowboys 7:  No Jalen Hurts?  No problem.  No Kenny Pickett?  No problem.  Welcome Tanner McKee, a late round pick from Stanford who entered the game in the second half and went 3 of 4 for 54 yards and 2 TDs.  The score was tied 7-7 at the end of the first quarter; after that the outcome was not seriously in doubt.

Raiders 25  Saints 10:  Another example of a bad team winning a game and hurting their draft position next April.  The game was meaningless to 2024 standings and action, so the only way to look at it is through the perspective of next year’s draft.

Jags 20  Titans 13:  I guess one of these bottom-feeders had to win this one …

Vikes 27  Packers 25:  This game was not quite as close as the score might lead you to believe; the Vikes led 27-10 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  Sam Darnold was the star of the game throwing for 377 yards and 3 TDs for the night.

Bengals 30  Broncos 24 (OT):  The Bengals kept their slim playoff hopes alive with this win.  Joe Burrow threw 3 TD passes and amassed 411 yards passing in the game; Tee Higgins had 11 catches for 131 yards and hauled in all 3 of Burrow’s TD passes.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are some outrageously surprising lines this week reflecting which teams will be playing their starters and which teams have something immediate to motivate top performance in this last week of the NFL regular season.  The field for the NFC playoffs is pretty much set; three things remain in doubt:

• The Packers and Commanders will be the #6 and #7 seeds, but that order will depend on game results this weekend.
• Either the Lions or the Vikes will be the #1 seed and get the playoff BYE Week based on the winner this week; the loser will be the #5 seed.
• Either the Bucs or the Falcons will win the NFC South, and that division winner will be in the playoffs and the other team will be out.

Over in the AFC:

• The Bengals, Dolphins and Broncos can all make the final playoff slot in the Conference depending on what happens this week.  The Broncos control their position; if they win, they’re in.

Because of all the uncertainty this week, I am not going to offer up a “Betting Bundle” because the NFL slate is closer to a week of Exhibition Games than anything else and the college lines are too early to be reliable.  In cases where I have a “leaning” I’ll indicate it.

(Sat 4:30PM ET) Browns at Ravens – 20 (41):  The spread for this game opened at 17.5 points and has expanded from that lofty level.  The Ravens clinch the division with a victory here and the Browns are a sorry sack of s*it at this point in the season.  Nevertheless, anyone who wagers on any NFL game with a 20-point spread is clearly addicted and needs an intervention.  The Browns’ offense has gone AWOL over the last month; consider:

• Steelers 27 Browns 14 (This is the “good game” on this list!)
• Chiefs 21 Browns 7
• Bengals 24 Browns 6
• Dolphins 20 Browns 3

Meanwhile, the Ravens average 30 points per game.  This game is on national TV; I wonder if it can hold its initial audience for very long.

(Sat 8:00 PM ET) Bengals – 2 at Steelers (48):  If the Browns were to win outright, the Steelers would be division champs with a win.  The Bengals can still snuggle their way into the final playoff slot but the only way to do that is for them to win here.  Hence the spread for the game and the unusually high Total Line for a Steelers’ game.  If you absolutely must have some action on games this weekend, consider taking the Bengals to win and cover.  If you absolutely must have some action on games this weekend, consider your situation in the much larger context of your life.

Saints at Bucs – 14 (44):  The Bucs are in the same situation as the Ravens; if they win, they’re in.  The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games to put themselves in that position; the Saints are 5-11 and have looked awful in their last two losses.  With Mike Evans needing 85 yards to tie an NFL record (see above), my guess is that he is targeted early and often in this game.

Bills – 2.5 at Pats (38):  The spread here opened at 5.5 points; then came reports that the Bills would start Josh Allen to keep a streak alive, but that Allen would be subbed out of the game; naturally, the line adjusted to that news.  Despite their 3-11-0 record, the Pats played the Bills very close just two weeks ago in Buffalo; was that an omen or just a happenstance?

Bears at Packers – 10 (41):  The Packers and the Commanders are both in the playoffs; the Packers are in the 7^th slot but could move up to the 6^th slot with a win here and a Commanders’ loss to the Cowboys.  The Bears are a stone cold mess; they have lost 10 games in a row ever since losing to the Commanders on a Hail Mary pass in October.  So, the Packers have some motivation unless they check the scoreboard and see the Commanders up big on the Cowboys.

Dolphins – 1.5 at Jets (39):  Even if this were not Week 18, there is no way I would bet this game.  The Dolphins need several things to fall their way to get into the playoffs; the Jets have been eliminated from that possibility for about a month.  Tua will not play for the Dolphins this week and the game is in NYC where the warm-weather Dolphins have not shown well in late season games in the past.  So, my choice here would be to take the dog-assed Jets [Hat Tip to Dan Jenkins] or a Dolphins team without their starting QB in a venue not suited to their game.  No thanks; I’ll pass.

Chiefs at Broncos – 10.5 (40):  If the Broncos win, they are in the playoffs and both the Bengals and the Dolphins are out.  The Chiefs will get next week off no matter what happens here, and they have already announced that they will play Carson Wentz in place of Patrick Mahomes and sit other starters.  I think that provides an interesting angle to the game.  Wentz has had his career arc aimed downward for about 5 years now, but he showed some talent in his first couple of years in the league.  So, how might he produce in an “Andy Reid system” with a full season of study as a backup?  That angle is more interesting to me than the game outcome.

Chargers – 4.5 at Raiders (41.5):  The good news here is that the Raiders have a two-game winning streak; the bad news is that those two wins have dropped the Raiders out of the Top-5 for the Draft next April.  Both coaches are reputed to be great motivators; both coaches will need that capability to get this game played at full speed; it really doesn’t mean much of anything.

Jags at Colts – 5 (44):  With apologies to Elizabeth Barret Browning …  How meaningless is this game?  Let me count the ways:

• It is inconsequential, insignificant, pointless, unimportant, useless and worthless.
• That pretty much sums things up.

The Colts simply wet the bed last week giving up 45 points to the Giants; the Jags are just miserable.

Panthers at Falcons – 9 (48):  The Falcons can win the NFC South with a win here and a loss by the Bucs.  The Falcons have shown well in the last couple of weeks but that may not be enough to get in the playoffs because the Bucs should prevail over the Saints this week.  The Panthers have looked better late this season than they did at the start – – but there is still plenty of room for improvement.

Commanders – 6 at Cowboys (44.5):  The Commanders are in the playoffs and the Cowboys are not; the Commanders will keep their #6 seed in the playoffs with a win.  The Cowboys won the first meeting between these two teams back in late November giving the Commanders another smidgen of motivation to play well here.

Seahawks – 6.5 at Rams (39):  The spread here opened at Rams – 2.5 and has swung by 9 points toward the Seahawks.  It appears that the Rams will be resting starters and announced Jimmy Garoppolo will play QB in the game.  The Seahawks looked disinterested and discombobulated last week even though they beat the Bears 6-3.

Niners at Cards – 5 (43):  Here is the motivation factor for this game:

• If the Niners win, they will not finish dead last in the NFC West.

What more can you ask for?

Texans at Titans – 1 (37):  The Texans are in the playoffs as division champs and the Titans are 3-13-0 and have lost their last 5 games in a row.  Nevertheless, the Titans are favored here giving you an idea how the oddsmakers view the import of this game…

Giants at Eagles – 3 (37.5):  The Giants held the top pick in the Draft for next April – – until they beat the Colts last week.  If they win here, I believe they could drop all the way to #8 in the upcoming Draft which would put an exclamation point on a miserable season for the club which included a 10-game losing streak.  The fact that the Eagles will rest starters and are still favored in the game says a lot about the way the oddsmakers view the Giant’s roster.

(Sun Nite) Vikes at Lions – 2.5 (54.5):  The Total Line for this game opened at 51.5 points and has been climbing slowly but steadily all week.  This is clearly the Game of the Week; both teams show up with records of 14-2-0; the winner gets the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs and the loser gets the #5 seed meaning the loser has to play a road game in Round 1 of the playoffs.  There is plenty at stake here.  Why is the Total Line high – – and getting higher?

• The Lions give up 250.4 yards per game passing; only the Jags are worse.
• The Vikes give up 243.6 yards per game which ranks them 28^th in the league.
• The Lions have given up 18 TD passes, and the Vikes have given up 23 TD passes.

So, which passing offense is going to have the better day?  The one led by Jared Goff who has been in games of this magnitude before or the one led by Sam Darnold whose career rose from the ashes this year when JJ McCarthy was injured in Training Camp?  If I were going to pick this game, I would play it to go OVER the Total Line.

There is no “Betting Bundle” to review this week, but let me throw out – – just for giggles – – a four-team Money Line Parlay:

• Bengals @ minus-130
• Bucs @ minus-820
• Falcons @ minus-400
• Commanders @ minus- 200     $100 wager to win $272

Finally, let me close with this from Vince Lombardi:

“Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………