Football Friday 12/27/24

One Holiday down – – one Holiday to go.  In between, there comes a Friday and that suggests a Football Friday.  Let’s start with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Bets on spreads and totals:  3 wins, 3 losses, 1 push.  Meh!
• Money Line Parlays:  1 win, 2 losses.  “Net Loss” = $46  Not good.

 

College Football Commentary

 

            I am not going to go through the four first round games of the CFP from last weekend because I want to focus on the CFP itself today.  There is going to be negativity in some of the commentary; so, I want to be sure to begin by saying this is NOT going to be a nostalgia piece shining glory on “the way it used to be”.  I have no fondness at all for the days when a “college football national champion” was determined by polls where many of the voters never saw the top teams play.

The BCS used computer rankings and stat analysis to pair two teams in a single championship game.  That was better than polling; it was controversial to say the least and at least one team every year got to play the “we were snubbed” card.   So, the answer was to create the CFP with four teams in a simple bracket.  Better still – – but maybe not perfect.

Fortunately – – or unfortunately depending on how you look at it – – the three-game CFP drew sizeable TV audiences and sizeable TV audiences can be monetized pretty easily.  Expansion was “the answer” because “expansion” also meant “cash flow”.  That was not the explanation given when expansion was being formulated; rather, the narrative was that an expanded CFP would assure that all worthy aspirants to the national championship would get the chance to show their stuff on the field.  Oh, and as a sidelight, fans would get more football entertainment.  What could possibly go wrong?

Some folks who comment on sports wondered why the expansion had to go from 4 teams to 12 teams because in all the years that I have followed college football, there has never been a time when 12 teams could make a legitimate case for themselves as national champion.  Usually, four teams battling it out on the field would be sufficient; maybe occasionally a fifth or sixth team could “enter the chat”, but never 12 teams.  I said that the potential for first-round blowouts was a real potential downside; so, I was part of that “12-team skepticism” and the results from Round One of the first 12-team CFP have not alleviated that skepticism.

The “closest game” in the first round was Notre Dame/Indiana where the Irish won by 10 points.  But that is terribly misleading because with 2 minutes left in the game, the score was Notre Dame 27 and Indiana 3.  That “closest game” was a blowout that was never in doubt in the second half.  The first-round games fell far short of “entertaining”.

I still believe that having a field of 12 contenders for the national championship is too large but when you add to that bloated field restrictions as to who “must be invited” and how the seedings must be done, you wind up in a situation where the Selection Committee is painted into a corner.  And it certainly seems as if this year’s Selection Committee failed to account for a very important aspect of the selection process:

• Strength Of Schedule

We saw last year what can happen when an undefeated team from Conference-USA (Liberty) was matched with Oregon in a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  The final score was 45-6; the only positive thing you might say about the game was that Liberty actually led 6-3 at the end of the first quarter.  The “problem” here is that while Liberty was 13-0 entering the game, they had not played anyone close to the caliber of Oregon and several of Oregon’s opponents.  There is more to assessing a team’s strength than their win-loss record; you must consider to whom the team lost and over whom the team was victorious.

In 2024, the Selection Committee – – with all the constraints handed to it – – made it worse in my opinion.  Please do not take the following as put downs for teams in this year’s CFP; what I intend is to suggest that strength of schedule should have been given more weight in selecting the field.

Let me start with Indiana and let me say up front that the Hoosiers can only play the teams on their schedule; they have no flexibility.  Having said that please look at their 11-1 record as they arrive at the CFP:

• Out of Conference Games:  Florida International, Western Illinois, Charlotte.  FIU won 4 games playing a C-USA schedule, Western Illinois is Division 1-AA and Charlotte won 5 games playing an American Conference schedule.
• Big-10 Games:  Indiana did NOT play Oregon, Penn St., Illinois or Iowa – – four of the six best records in the conference.  When they did play Ohio St., Indiana lost by 23 points.
• Indiana’s record in front of the Committee was 11-1 and it was built on a cupcake schedule.

Next consider SMU.  They presented a record of 11-2 to the Selection Committee and one of the losses was in the ACC Championship Game.  Sounds good until you look at the opponents.  From my perspective, SMU’s two “signature wins” were over Louisville by 7 points and Duke by 1 point.  Now, if those are “signature wins” let me assert that the “signature” was not nearly as bold and outstanding as was John Hancock’s on the Declaration of Independence.  Once again it was a laudable record compiled at the expense of mediocre opponents.

I am not trying to pick on the ACC today, but the other team from that conference – – Clemson – – was the Conference Champion and it was overmatched in Round One of the CFP.  The Committee had no choice but to include that conference champion even with 3 losses on its record.  The fact is that this was a “down year” for football in the ACC; Round One of the CFP this year convinced me that none of the ACC teams should have been included.

I will get back to the teams invited to participate in a moment but let me take on another issue with the CFP as presented this year.  Playing the first-round games on the home fields of the higher seeded teams is piling on.  The Committee in its wisdom has declared the four teams that are “superior” to their first-round opponents via the seeding process.  So, now you give those teams the added advantage of a home game?

Some commentators think that one more expansion of the CFP will resolve the issues because if you expand the field to 16 teams, you need not give out any BYE Weeks thereby making the seedings less constrained.  To that suggestion, I say, “Buncombe”.  [Hat Tip to H. L. Mencken there.]

• There are already too many teams in the CFP.
• Why would this year’s CFP be better with four more teams all of whom the Selection Committee deems to be inferior to Indiana, SMU and/or Clemson?

I know that the CFP will eventually go to 16 games simply because of the TV dollars that will be made available.  When that happens, the semi-finals and the final game will probably be entertaining TV fare and once in a while there will be a significant showing by a Cinderella Team in the early rounds, but I suspect that many games will be like the first-round games this year – – blowouts.

Moving on …  I was channel surfing and ran across the Myrtle Beach Bowl between UTSA and Coastal Carolina.  I did not stay long because the score was 21-0 and I have no particular attraction to either team.  However, I was surprised at how full the stadium was for what must be considered a “Minor” Bowl Game.  Wikipedia was helpful here.

• The venue for the game was Brooks Stadium with a capacity of 21,000.
• The attendance for this year’s bowl game was 8,164.
• Seeing a minor bowl game with 40% of the stadium filled was surprising.

 

Interesting Bowl Games This Week:

 

(Fri Afternoon) Ga Tech – 2.5 vs Vandy (51.5):  Two teams that surprised pundits this year.  Tech beat Miami and lost to Georgia by 2 points in overtime; Vandy beat Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn while losing to Texas by a field goal.

(Fri Nite Late)  Texas A&M – 4 vs USC (52):  Middle of the pack in the SEC versus middle of the pack in the Big-10.

(Sat Morning)  UConn vs UNC – 2 (53):  If this were a college basketball game, it would be “Must-See TV”.

(Sat Afternoon)  Iowa St. vs Miami – 4 (55.5):  Both teams ended the regular season on low notes.  One of them will go out on an even lower note …

(Sat Nite)  BYU vs Colorado – 4 (54.5):  Two teams from the Big-12 both of whom posted 7-2 records in conference but never faced each other.

(Tues Noon) Alabama – 12 vs Michigan (45):  In recent times, this pairing could well have been for the national championship itself.

(Tues Afternoon) South Carolina – 10 vs Illinois (47.5):  A good SEC team against a good Big-10 team.

 

CFP Games Next Week

 

(Tues Nite)  Penn St. – 11.5 vs Boise St. (51.5):  Boise St. will want to run the ball with Ashton Jeanty; Penn St. ranks #7 in the nation in rushing defense allowing 100.4 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry.  Before you jump on the Nittany Lions train because of that defense, consider that when Jeanty went up against Oregon’s defense he ran for 192 yards and 3 TDs.  I think that line is fat, so I’ll take Boise St plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Wed Afternoon)  Texas – 13.5 vs Arizona St. (51.5):  Defense matters, and Texas’ defense ranks #3 in the nation in Total Defense yielding only 261.1 yards per game.  The Arizona St. defense allows 336.9 yards per game.  Arizona St. RB, Cam Skattebo is the second-best RB I’ve seen this year, and he will test that Texas defensive line in this game.  I don’t have a good feel for this game, but I am hoping for more competitive games in this round of the CFP; so, I’ll take Arizona St. plus the points here and hope for a close game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Wed Afternoon Late)  Ohio St. – 2.5 vs Oregon (54.5):  Traditionalists will see this with a measure of nostalgia because this is the Rose Bowl, and it pits a Big-10 team against a team that used to be in the PAC-8 – – or PAC-10 or PAC-12 depending on your age.  This is also a rematch; these teams met in October in Oregon where the Ducks won by a single point.  Ohio St. had more than 450 yards on offense in that game as did Oregon.  This is the CFP Game of the Week.  I see this game as a high scoring affair; so, I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Wed Nite)  Notre Dame vs Georgia – 2.5 (44):  It appears that Gunner Stockton will make his first career start at QB for Georgia in this game.  He has played well in “relief roles” but the big unknown is his readiness for “prime time”.  Notre Dame is a running team (222 yards per game); Georgia’s run defense is only ranked #36 in the country giving up 128 yards per game.  How Georgia defends the run is the key to this one.  [Aside:  How in Hell did Notre Dame lose at home to Northern Illinois this year?]  This looks to me to be a coin flip game.  There is a standard protocol here in Curmudgeon Central for coin flip games and that protocol says to take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

Now that we know that the Chiefs will have the BYE Week in the playoffs – – and home field advantage throughout those playoffs – – the value of that BYE Week comes into focus.  The Chiefs have the option to sit Patrick Mahomes let his ankle “heal” along with other players who are “nicked”.  The game next weekend against the Broncos has no bearing on playoffs for the Chiefs and that means the next meaningful game for the Chiefs will be on the weekend of January 18 or 19.  That is more than 3 weeks of “healing time” for players with minor injuries and that is significant.

I want to say something about the Commanders/Eagles game last weekend.  That was the most poorly officiated NFL game that I have seen this year.  The officials were not biased; they missed calls and made ticky-tack calls for and against both teams from start to finish.  To give an example of what I mean, on the play that scored the winning TD for the Commanders with about 10 seconds left in the game, the right tackle for the Commanders was obviously in motion before the snap.  Even the broadcasters looking at the replay said the officials missed the call; I called for a flag in my living room before the QB released the ball.  And that was not nearly the worst call of the day.  Santa needs to have left lumps of coal in the stockings for those officials.

Often in these rants I discuss coaches on hot seats in danger of losing their jobs.  Today I want to focus on three men who – – I think – – deserve to get one of the vacant jobs come January 2025.

• Ben Johnson:  He is currently the Offensive Coordinator for the Lions and has held that position for three seasons.  He was a coveted candidate in last year’s head coaching sweepstakes but took his name out of the running choosing to return to the Lions this year.  So far, the Lions lead the NFL in scoring (493 points) and are tied with the Vikes for most offensive plays gaining 20+ yards and most offensive plays gaining 40+ yards.  Johnson is only 38 years old, and he majored in math and computer science as an undergrad; he is young, and he is smart.
• Mike Vrabel:  He was the head coach of the Titans from 2018 until he was surprisingly fired from that job last year.  He had a winning record in Tennessee in 4 of his 6 seasons there and he made the playoffs 3 times.  In the 2021 season, he was named Coach of the Year in the NFL.  He has spent this year as a consultant to the Cleveland Browns; so, if he wants another head coaching position, he can say in his interviews that he is “rested and ready”.

I suspect that anyone reading those two names above is thinking, “Nothing newsworthy about those nominees; everyone knows they will get plenty of interest”.  Well, my third head coaching candidate might surprise some:

• Brian Flores:  He is currently the Defensive Coordinator for the Vikes and in his two years at that job, he has significantly revitalized that unit.  So far in 2024, the Vikes have given up the fewest points in the NFC and are second in the NFL in scoring defense.  Moreover, he has head coaching experience with the Dolphins for 3 seasons where he took over a miserable team and managed to squeeze out two winning seasons in his three years there.  And therein lies the problem.  As a result of that firing, Flores filed a class-action lawsuit against the NFL and several teams specifically; that case is almost 3 years old now and it can easily get in the way during any interview Flores may get in this offseason.  If a team owner or GM can get beyond the allegations in that lawsuit, they should find a highly qualified candidate for their vacancy.

Now for some comments on some of last week’s games

Packers 34  Saints 0:  That is the first shutout of the year in the NFL, and it was never seriously in danger of falling since the Saints only crossed the 50 yardline twice in the game.

Bengals 24  Browns 6:  The Bengals have a dim light at the end of the tunnel that leads to the playoffs, but it remains illuminated with this win.  The Bengals’ defense has been porous all season long until last weekend; so, the question here is:

• Did the Bengals finally “figure it out” – – or – –
• Was the opposing QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, what the defense needed to succeed?

Falcons 34  Giants 7:  The Falcons recorded two Pick Sixes in the game.   The win keeps the Falcons relevant in the NFC South race.

Rams 19  Jets 9:  All of a sudden, the Rams are beating teams by shutting them down instead of outscoring them.  The Jets turned the ball over on downs twice in the game and the Rams got 10 points off those two failed fourth-down tries.  Look at the difference in the game score …

Vikes 27  Seahawks 24:  Above, I mentioned that Brian Flores has been successful in building the Vikes’ defense.  Well, last week they held the Seahawks to 2 of 10 conversions on third-down and they recorded 2 INTs.  The Vikes can still win the NFC North with this win; the Seahawks fell a full game behind the Rams in the NFC West race.

Raiders 19  Jags 14:  One of these teams had to win this stinker of a game …

Cowboys 26  Bucs 24:  The Bucs’ normally swarming defense did not show up for this one; Cooper Rush and Company moved the ball at will.  The loss leaves the Bucs tied with the Falcons in the NFC South.

 

Games This Week:

 

When the Seahawks/Bears game went to halftime last night, I did what I normally do for night games.

• I visited the facilities – – and – –
• I set a timer for 10 minutes to come back for the second half after checking my emails and texts.

The difference last night was that the first half of that game was so dreary that I thought about bagging the second half for about half a minute before I returned to my perch aside the TV.  Boy, was that ever a mistake!  Above, I said that last week got me to see the worst officiated game of the season.  Last night was the least interesting game that I saw all season.

If you are given the opportunity on some streaming service to go back and check out the action in the Seahawks 6-3 win over the Bears, politely decline that offer.  The good folks at NFL Films should find a way to quarantine – – permanently – – any visual record of that sh*tshow.

I did draw two conclusions from the game:

1. The Bears’ interim head coach is over his head in that role.  If he gets even a single interview in this offseason of coach shuffling, it will not be based on anything he has done with his time “at the helm” in Chicago this year.
2. Jayden Daniels is going to be a better NFL QB than Caleb Williams when all is said and done.

The schedule maker looks awfully prescient this week. He foresaw some late season matchups that have serious playoff implications, and he also managed to come up with two games that will pit four bad teams one upon another so that the schedule pollution is somewhat contained.

 

(Sat Early PM)  Chargers – 4 at Pats (43):  The Chargers get to leave balmy SoCal and fly about 3000 miles to play this game in Foxboro where the temperature will be in the 40s and there is a 50% chance of rain.  Not exactly ideal conditions for a team that needs to win to stay relevant in the AFC Playoffs.  The Chargers are the better team; they have the better QB; they have the better coach.  Notwithstanding all of that, the Pats gave the Bills all the Bills could handle just last week.  This game is definitely worth watching tomorrow.

(Sat Late PM)  Broncos at Bengals – 3 (49):  Here is the situation in a nutshell:

• As of today, the Broncos own the 7^th playoff slot in the AFC at 9-6-0
• The Bengals are still alive for that slot and must win out while the Broncos lose out.
• It’s an elimination game for the Bengals.

It’s another game clearly worth your attention this weekend.  I think offense dominates this game; the Broncos’ offense wins because the Bengals’ defense stinks and the Bengals’ offense wins because they have Joe Burrow and a bunch of really good pass catchers.  Give me the OVER in this game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat Nite)  Cards at Rams – 7 (48):  The spread for this game opened at 3.5 points and has exploded to this level.  The Cards were eliminated from playoff contention last week, but the Rams have their playoff aspirations in the palms of their hands.  If you decide that you need to miss one of the Saturday Games this week, make it this one.

Colts – 7.5 at Giants (40.5):  The Colts are still mathematically alive for the AFC playoffs, but I suspect that even members of Jim Irsay’s nuclear family are starting to plan for a January vacation to somewhere warm and sunny.  The Giants’ highest aspiration for this game is not to be totally embarrassed to the point where their blunders make it to Facebook Reels.

Falcons at Commanders – 4 (47.5):  I gave this game serious consideration as the Game of the week for several reasons

• Both teams are alive in the NFC playoff race
• Both teams will start a rookie QB
• Both teams have first-year head coaches who turned things around this year

A Falcons’ victory here would set up two very interesting and important games for Week 18; this game should be played with great energy by both squads.  Jayden Daniels is going to outplay Michael Penix, Jr. at the QB position and that will give the Commanders a comfortable win; give me the Commanders to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Raiders – 1 at Saints (38):  This game came ever so close to being the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because the Saints will be playing without their QB, RB and Swiss Army Knife and that has led the oddsmaker to make the woebegone Raiders a road favorite.

Titans at Jags – 1 (39):  And as miserable as the Raiders/Saints game should be, this one looks to be worse.  It is a division game between two teams who bring 3-12-0 records to the kickoff.  The QB showdown pairs two backups – – Mason Rudolph versus Mac Jones.  If that doesn’t get your juices flowing, that would make you a normal human being.  The late Pete Axthelm had a great description for this sort of a game; he called it a Smashed Windshield Game because:

• If you parked your car to go shopping and left two tickets to this game on the dashboard of your car, you would find – – upon your return – – a smashed windshield and two additional tickets to the game on your dashboard.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me present to you the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Jets at Bills – 9 (46.5):  The Bills have no motivation here; they clinched the AFC East weeks ago and they cannot get the overall #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs.  The Jets have been out of any playoff thinking for about a month now, but Aaron Rodgers has some motivation to show that he is not totally washed up such that he cannot get an NFL QB job next season.  Believe it or not, in late December in Buffalo, the weather is forecast to be in the mid-50s but with an 80% chance of rain.  Given the circumstances, would you play Josh Allen if you were the Bills’ coach?

Panthers at Bucs – 9 (49):  After spitting the bit last week against the Cowboys, the Bucs need this one to stay in the running for the NFC South title and a playoff slot.  The Panthers have shown a lot of improvement in the last month, but I don’t know that they are quite yet ready to give a motivated Bucs’ team a scare.

Packers at Vikes “pick ‘em” (49):  Here we have the Game of the Week.  The combined record for these two teams is a stunning 24-6-0.  If the Vikes win here and then win again next week over the Lions, the Vikes will win the NFC North.  However, winning this one – – even at home – – is no walk in the park for the Vikes; the Packers’ offense is hitting on all cylinders and the Packers’ defense has been smothering since early November.

Cowboys at Eagles – 7 (39):  This spread opened at 11.5 points and the Total Line opened at 44.5 points; clearly the availability of Jalen Hurts is a key element to betting on this game.  Kenny Pickett is a competent backup, but his lack of a deep passing game allows defenses to put 9 or even 10 men “in the box” making a running game nigh onto impossible.  Beyond Pickett, the Eagles will have to dig very deep should they need to depend on either Tanner McKee or recently signed off the streets Ian Book.  Adding to the cloudiness surrounding this game, the Cowboys announced last night that they will shut down CeeDee Lamb for the rest of the year.

Dolphins – 7 at Browns (40):  The Dolphins are still mathematically alive for the playoffs; the Browns have been out of it for at least a month and probably more like two months.  It is a must win game for the Dolphins and it is happening in the north in December where and when the Dolphins are historically inept.  Then again, these are the Browns as the opponents…

(Sun Nite)  Lions – 3.5 at Niners (51):  The Niners season is kaput; the Lions are guaranteed to be in the NFC Playoffs but their position in those playoffs is not secure yet.  The Niners are offensively challenged with injuries and the Lions are defensively challenged with injuries.  This game comes down to which M*A*S*H unit plays better than its opponent.  The Lions are a good team playing with a motivation factor; the Niners are merely a good team playing for “pride”.  I like the team with some positive motivation here so give me the Lions on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let’s review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Boise St. + 11.5 against Penn St.
• Arizona St. + 13.5 against Texas
• Ohio St./Oregon OVER 54.5
• Notre Dame/Georgia OVER 44
• Broncos/Bengals OVER 49
• Commanders – 4 over Falcons
• Lions – 3.5 over Niners

And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays:

• Commanders @ minus-200
• Lions @ minus-185    $100 wager to win $131

And …

• Chargers @ minus-225
• Oregon @ +125     $100 wager to win $225

And – – to end 2024 on a patriotic note …

• Army @ minus-675
• Navy @ +120   $100 wager to win $153.

Finally, closing words from Vince Lombardi:

“There is no room for second place. There is only one place in my game and that is first place. I have finished second twice in my time at Green Bay and I never want to finish second again.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………