Football Friday 12/20/24

Don Rickles said:

“I like to think I’m like the guy who goes to the office Christmas party Friday night, insults some people, but still has his job Monday morning.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to think I am the guy who produces Football Fridays and still has a readership left on Monday morning.  It’s tough job [not really] and someone has to do it [again, not really].  So, on with the show …

Here is a quick review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spread and Total wagers were 2-2-0 – – Meh!
• Money Line Parlays were 1-2 for a “Loss” of $57 – – Not good!

Undaunted, I press on…

 

College Football Commentary

 

            The Heisman Award went to Travis Hunter this year.  I am glad it did not go to one of the QBs on the ballot because I think both Hunter and Ashton Jeanty were better college football players in 2024 than any of the college QBs in this year’s crop.  Congratulations to Travis Hunter – – and I wonder where the NFL team that drafts him will choose to play him on Sunday afternoons.

I don’t know whether to be happy or outraged by the news that Marshall University chose to pull out of its bowl game against Army because more than two dozen of its players chose to enter the transfer portal and would not have played in that bowl game to avoid injury.

• On one hand, it has been clear for many years that there are too many minor bowl games and perhaps this is a signal to call some of them off – – permanently.
• On another hand, this entire scheduling fiasco is an unintended consequence of unregulated NIL money along with the universal presence of the transfer portal.

None of the advocates for “pay the college athletes” and/or “free movement for college athletes” envisioned this as one of the outcomes.  Those advocates thought they had “the answers”; where are they now with more “answers”?

Speaking of college football bowl games, there has been a shift in bowl names over the years.  Long ago, bowl games were named after plants – – or plant products – – grown in warm weather such as:

• Cactus Bowl
• Camillia Bowl
• Citrus Bowl
• Cotton Bowl
• Orange Bowl
• Peach Bowl
• Poinsettia Bowl
• Rose Bowl
• Sugar Bowl

Currently, the trend seems to be to name bowl games after people in uniform or the objectives of people in uniform:

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
• Go Bowling Military Bowl
• Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
• Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
• Salute to Veterans Bowl
• ServPro First Responder Bowl
• Valero Alamo Bowl

One of the lyrics in the old Bob Dylan song goes like this:

“Come mothers and fathers throughout the land
And don’t criticize what you can’t understand.
Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly agin’.  Please get out of the new one
If you can’t lend your hand for the times, they are a-changin’ “

Another college football example of changing times happened last week.  Starting in 2025, the Ivy League will take part in the Division 1-AA football playoffs.  The Ivy League has been in existence for 70 years now and has over that time period refused any sort of participation in bowl games or playoff structures when it comes to football.  The Ivies do participate in other collegiate championships – – March Madness being the most obvious example – – but football outside of the regular season was never seriously considered “proper”.

One of the consequences of this decision to participate in next year’s football championship tournament is that the league will need to develop tie-breakers for the league.  For the last 70 years, if two or more teams had the same record against Ivy League opponents, the League simply named them as co-champions.  This year, there was a three-way tie at the top of the league:

• Dartmouth was 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games
• Harvard was 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games
• Columbia was 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games

 

CFP Games This Week

 

Think about the old saying, “Defense wins championships,” while you ponder this stat for the 2024 college football regular season.

• There are twelve teams in the field.
• Seven of the twelve teams are ranked in the Top Ten in Total Defense for the year.
  • • Ohio St. – – ranked #1
    • Indiana – – ranked #2
    • Texas – – ranked #3
    • Tennessee – – ranked #4
    • Penn St. – – ranked #6
    • Notre Dame – – ranked #9
    • Oregon – – ranked #10

Interestingly, Georgia is a team known for its defensive prowess under Kriby Smart ranks down at #35 in the country in Total Defense.  By comparison, the Bulldogs give up 95 more yards per game than top-ranked Ohio St.  Now you know …

(Fri Nite) Indiana at Notre Dame – 7 (52.5):  The in-state distance between these two schools is only about 200 miles but they have not met on a football field for the last 33 years; the last time Indiana beat Notre Dame in football was all the way back in the 1950 season.  This year, Indiana ranked first in the nation in scoring differential (28.7 points per game) and Notre Dame ranked second in the nation in scoring differential (26.1 points per game).  Neither team played a difficult schedule so this game could play out in a myriad of ways.  One thing is for sure; Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman will be back as the head coach of the Irish next year; he just signed a long-term extension.  The Irish have lost their last 10 bowl games in a row; the oddsmakers have them installed as a solid favorite here at minus-290 on the Money Line.  People have questioned Indiana’s “worthiness” for CFP participation because of their soft schedule; here is a chance for the Hoosiers to demonstrate their “worthiness”.  I like the game to stay UNDER because I think the two highly regarded defenses in the game will dominate the play; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

SMU at Penn St. – 8 (54):  Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions exploded for more than 500 yards of offense against Oregon in the Big-10 Championship Game; Oregon has a Top-Ten defense and SMU does not.  Where SMU has is an edge is in team speed.  I think the Penn St. defense can keep SMU from running wild, so I’ll take the Nittany Lions at home to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Clemson at Texas – 12.5 (51.5):  I think Clemson is overmatched here; simply put, playing an ACC schedule in 2024 is not the same thing as playing an SEC schedule in 2024 even when you consider that Texas did not have to face the top SEC teams week after week.  Having said that, I think that line is fat; give me Clemson plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  Now for those Clemson fans who think I am being harsh in calling the Tigers “overmatched”, let me refer you to the Money Line this morning where Clemson can be had at odds of +360.

Tennessee at Ohio St. – 7.5 (46):  I think this is the best game of the first round in the CFP this year.  Presumably, the Vols’ defensive coaches and players took notes while watching what Michigan’s defense did to the Buckeyes.  Tennessee has plenty of defensive talent and should keep this game close all day long.  I think the key to the game is Tennessee RB, Dylan Simpson; if he can grind out offense and keep the clock moving, this could go down to the wire.  The Vols are at +240 on the Money Line which is tempting, but I shall resist.  I will take Tennessee plus the points in the game, however; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

I have said here before that I will not be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers drag out his “decision” regarding his “play or retire” decision for 2025 along with any “decision” related to his remaining with the NY Jets in 2025.  The latest pronouncement from Rodgers is that he is “open to everything”.  I think that story has gotten sufficient attention and so I want to pose a rhetorical question here:

• Regardless of Rodgers’ decision to play or not play for the Jets next year, the Jets will need to acquire another QB in the near future to lead the team.
• At the same time, the Jets also need to hire a new GM and a new head coach because both positions have been vacated in the middle of the 2024 season.
• So, which is the more important hiring decision – – a new GM or a new QB?

I pose that question fully recognizing that the QB is the pivotal figure for most NFL teams.  Not meaning to contradict that logic, the Jets as a franchise have been ”at sea” (to be polite) for at least a decade now primarily because of poor roster construction.  To make that point, since the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jets have had 7 first round picks:

• Zack Wilson, QB
• Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG
• Sauce Gardner, DB
• Garrett Wilson, WR
• Jermaine Johnson, DE
• Will McDonald IV, DE
• Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT

By my eyeball test, there are two bona fide “anywhere in the NFL starters” on that list; two out of seven is less than 30%; when your first round pick “success rate” is less than 30%, perhaps there is a problem beyond the lack of a star QB.

Along similar lines, one of the narratives for this NFL season has been the confluence of the Dallas Cowboys underachieving expectations along with the fact that coach Mike McCarthy’s contract is up at the end of this season.  Lots of commentators have simply assumed that McCarthy will not be back on the sidelines for the Cowboys next year.  But let me ask if you think he deserves to be fired.  The Cowboys’ failures seem to me to rest on three pillars:

1. Their starting QB suffered a season-ending injury; the backup QB has played “uninspiringly”.
2. Their defense gives up over 27 points per game because it gets pushed around.
3. Their running game is anemic; it ranks 27^th in the league as of today.

I submit that the Cowboys’ underachievement is partly based on unrealistically high expectations in the first place and on poor roster construction once again.  The issue for Cowboys’ fans is that the “roster constructor” is the team owner and the team owner has not even hinted that he might relinquish any of those roster construction duties to someone else.

The Lions have a record of 12-2-0 as of this morning.  The Lions lead the NFL in points scored (459 points in 14 games = 32.8 points per game).  The Lions’ defense was very stingy early in the season but not so much recently.  In their last 3 games, the Lions have given up 99 points (33 points per game).  The reason is pretty simple – – injuries to starters on defense.  Every team has injuries, but it seems as if Lions’ defenders have been targeted by the football gods.  Here is a partial list of quality defenders on IR for the Lions:

• Alex Anzalone  LB
• Carlton Davis  DB
• Khalil Dorsey  DB
• Aiden Hutchinson  DE
• Alim McNeil  DT
• Malcom Rodriguez  LB

The Tampa Bay Bucs have quietly asserted themselves with a 4-game winning streak that allowed them to overtake the Falcons for the lead in the NFC South and the Bucs have done it with offense.  Baker Mayfield and company have scored 124 points in those 4 consecutive wins (31 points per game).  The Bucs have a one-game lead in the division and the remaining schedule is not a killer; none of the final three opponents has even a .500 record in 2024:

• Cowboys are 6-8-0
• Panthers are 3-11-0
• Saints are 5-9-0

Winning the division – – and thereby making the playoffs – – is totally in the hands of the Bucs; if they take care of business against those three teams with losing records, they will be in the playoffs.

Now before you shrug your shoulders and wave the Bucs off as a stepping stone for some other NFC team on the way to the Super Bowl, please consider this:

• The Bucs have beaten both the Eagles and the Lions this year.  They beat the Eagles by 17 points and the Lions by 4 points back in September.
• The Bucs lost to the Chiefs – – but took the Chiefs to OT in early November.
• Do not sleep on the Bucs.

The Browns announced this week that they will bench Jameis Winston at QB and replace him with Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  This may look like “tanking”, but I will try to suggest here that this move makes sense for the Browns’ franchise.  It begins with this mastery of the obvious statement:

• The Browns’ record of 3-11-0 guarantees that the players and coaches will taking Caribbean cruises with their families in January in lieu of prepping for a playoff game.

The Browns have a “QB Situation” that has defied resolution for some time now:

• They have an injured Deshaun Watson who is signed through the end of the 2026 season.
• They have Jameis Winston who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season – – and they pretty much know what they have in Winston.  This is his 9^th season in the NFL; there aren’t a lot of mysteries associated with Jameis Winston.
• They have Dorian Thompson-Robinson on a rookie contract that runs through the end of the 2026 season.

I will go out on a limb here and say that the Browns are not going to extend Deshaun Watson’s contract and that they would like to know how Thompson-Robinson has progressed in this his second season in the NFL.  That assessment could clarify for the Browns’ brass how aggressively they attack the QB market in the offseason and/or in the 2025 NFL draft.  Watching Thompson-Robinson in practice is one thing but it does not replace seeing him play against real NFL defenders going at full speed.  The last three games for the Browns are against the Bengals, Dolphins and Ravens; maybe the Ravens will have “something to play for” in Week 18 but the other two games are meaningless contests.  So, taking advantage of misfortune seems to make sense here; find out if the kid can play or not.

Here are some comments on some of last week’s games.

Commanders 20  Saints 19:   Jayden Daniels was sacked 8 times by Saints and the Commanders still won the game.  That does not happen often   Jake Haener quickly proved he wasn’t the answer for the Saints at quarterback, but the Saints scrambled back with Spencer Rattler at the helm.

Chiefs 21  Browns 7:  The Browns turned the ball over six times and did not snap the ball at all in the red zone.  Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury x-rays were negative; the official pronouncement was a high ankle sprain.  He practiced on Wednesday of this week and is listed as “Questionable” for this week’s game.

Texans 20  Dolphins 12:    The Texans did not gain 200 yards on offense but won the game because the Dolphins turned the ball over 4 times – – three of which were INTs thrown by Tua Tagovailoa.

Eagles 27  Steelers 13: This game was not nearly as close as the score indicates.  The Eagles outgained the Steelers by 238 yards and racked up 26 first downs to the Steelers’ 10.

Bucs 40  Chargers 17:  The Chargers led this game 17-10 at one point; then the Bucs scored the last 30 points in a row. Baker Mayfield was 22 for 27 with four TDs.   The Chargers’ record is now 8-6-0 and this loss makes them the seventh seed in the projected AFC playoffs. The most surprising stat to me is that a Jim Harbaugh coached team was outgained on the ground here 223 yards to 32 yards.

Ravens 35  Giants 14:   The Giant’s defense could not get off the field efficiently in the game; the Ravens converted 9 of 11 third down situations.   By comparison, the Giants converted only 2 of 12 third down opportunities.  The Giants have lost 9 in a row; that ties a franchise record for a franchise that dates back to1925.  Tommy DeVito started for the Giants, Tim Boyle finished up when DeVito suffered a concussion.

Falcons 15  Raiders 9:   The Raiders’ special teams got two punts blocked, an extra point blocked, and fair caught a punt at the 3-yard line – – all in one game.  Raiders’ coach, Antonio Pierce was not pleased; asked about his team’s special teams miscues after the game, Pierce acknowledged they were “ugly”.

 

Games This week:

 

Last night’s game between the Chargers and the Broncos was a tale of two halves.  In the first half, the Broncos dominated the stat sheet, the eyeball test and the scoreboard; the halftime score had the Broncos up by 8 points, but no one would have believed the score was that close.  Then things changed on a dime; the second half was dominated by the Chargers who took the lead and never relinquished it running away with a 34-27 win.

Both teams are still in good position to make the playoffs in the AFC.  For either team to miss this year’s playoffs, they would have to lose their two remaining games and one or more of the Dolphins, Bengals or Colts would have to win out.  Strange things happen every week in the NFL but the scenarios I just described go beyond “strange”.

(Sat Early PM) Texans at Chiefs – 3.5 (42):  With two division leaders going at it, this game got serious consideration as the Game of the Week. Can Patrick Mahomes play this week?  Not knowing if he can makes this game a pass for me.  The line seems to indicate to me that most folks think he will sit it out and let Carson Wentz take the field.  Andy Reid says Mahomes “will most likely end up playing.”

(Sat Late PM) Steelers at Ravens – 6.5 (44.5):  If the Ravens win, they will tie the Steelers at 10-5-0 on top of the AFC North; if the Steelers win, they will be assured of the division championship because they will own the tiebreaker with the Ravens.  Other than that, just an ordinary game on the schedule.  The status of TJ Watt’s availability for the Steelers is important here and the spread seems to suggest that he will not play – – or not play at nearly full strength.  Watt says he is “hopeful” that he can play.

Browns at Bengals – 9 (47):  The spread opened the week at 6 points; the jump up to this level seems related to the announcement that Dorian Thompson-Robinson would be the Browns QB this week (see above).  The Bengals are still alive mathematically for the playoffs but will be eliminated with a loss here.  The Bengals are winning because their offense has been scoring points recently; the Bengals’ defense is a sieve – – and maybe that is another reason why the Browns picked this game to see what Thompson-Robinson can do…?

Lions – 6.5 at Bears (48): The Bears have lost 8 games in a row ever since giving up the Hail Mary TD to the Commanders a couple of months ago.  That losing streak has gone under the radar because of the Giants’ losing streak at franchise record levels and the Raiders’ record of 10 losses in a row.  As noted above, the Lions are forced to play their JV on defense here.  This will be only the second “outdoor game” for the Lions this year and the weather in Chicago is forecast to be about 30 degrees with winds at 14 mph.  The Bears are only at +235 on the Money Line which is a surprise given the records of the two teams.

Cards – 4 at Panthers (47.5):  This line for the spread is all over the place.  I found it as low as 3 points and as high as 5 points; if you like this game, be advised to shop around for the line.  The Total Line is far more consistent, varying by only a half point at all the books I check.  I think this is going to be a defensive game; neither offense seems scary to me.  So, I’ll take the game to stay UNDER the total here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Pats at Bills – 14 (47):  This is a squash game; the Bills are hitting on all cylinders and the Pats are not playing well at all.  Here is how the oddsmakers view the outcome of this game:

• Pats on the Money Line = +700
• Bills on the Money Line = minus-1100

For reasons I do not understand, the local CBS affiliate chose this game as the one to air in the late Sunday afternoon time slot.  I guess that means they could not get the rights to a couple of reruns from My Mother the Car.

Eagles – 3.5 at Commanders (45.5):  This too got a passing thought as the Game of the Week.  The Total Line for this game opened at 48 points and has been dropping during the week.  No, I don’t know why.  If the Eagles win, they are NFC East champs; if the Commanders win, they can still win the division theoretically.  A loss for the Commanders (that would be their sixth) would bring the Rams and/or the Seahawks into contention for what is now the Commanders’ playoff position.  I am tempted to take the Commanders plus the points here but will resist.

• Get thee behind me, Satan.

Giants at Falcons – 8.5 (41.5):  The Falcons beat the Raiders last week and they get the Giants this week.  What’s next, a game against the JV team from an Ivy League also-ran?  The Falcons can still make the playoffs but really need to win out.  I think they will dominate here; I think Michael Penix will show very well against that defense; give me the Falcons to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans at Colts – 3.5 (42.5):  Even at 6-8-0, the Colts can still make the playoffs; not so for the Titans.  For now, the Colts, Bengals and Dolphins have the same record; I believe a loss for any of them eliminates them from any hope of sneaking in.

Rams – 3 at Jets (46):  The Rams have looked really good the last several weeks; the Jets have played better in their last two games.  The Rams need the game; they are tied with the Seahawks at the top of the NFC West and the two teams still have a head-to-head matchup on the schedule.  The Jets are going nowhere so this is a “pride game” for them.  At the same time, this is a “body clock game” for the Rams playing in the early afternoon time slot 3 time zones east of home.

Vikes – 3 at Seahawks (42.5):  I anoint this as the Game of the Week because of its playoff implications and the questions surrounding the game.  The Vikes are 12-2-0 – – the same record as the Lions and the Eagles in the NFC.  The Seahawks are tied with the Rams for the lead in the NFC West.  The five games involving those five teams this week are all pivotal, but this one could see the Vikes slip into the lead for the NFC playoff BYE Week.  And with all that stuff to consider here is something else;

• Geno Smith has a sprained ankle.
• Can he play at all?  If so, how limited might he be?
• If he can’t go, can backup Sam Howell deal with the swarming Vikes’ defense?

I think the Vikes are primed for a big game here even on the road and I don’t like the Seahawks’ chances with either a hobbled Smith or a healthy Howell; I’ll take the Vikes and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Niners at Dolphins – 1 (45):  Both teams have underachieved expectations for 2024; neither team is playing particularly well now.  Betting on this game is akin to buying a scratch-off lottery ticket.

Jags at Raiders – 2 (40):  I called this the Dog-Breath Game of the Week last week.  I neither know who will win this game nor do I care; these teams are awful.  Their combined record as of the kickoff is 5-23-0.  Oh joy …!

(Sun Nite) Bucs – 4 at Cowboys (48):  The Cowboys record at home this year is 1-6-0; that lone win was over the Giants so maybe it shouldn’t even count.  The Cowboys defense looked good last week against the Panthers but as noted above the Bucs’ offense has been en fuego recently.

(Mon Nite) Saints at Packers – 14 (42):  This is another squash game.  The Saints are playing hard under interim head coach, Darren Rizzi, but that will not be nearly enough to stay with the Packers.  Hopefully, the Saints saw enough of Jake Haener last week; and hopefully, they will not need to turn to him save for garbage time minutes this week.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle” for this week:

• Indiana/Notre Dame UNDER 52.5
• Penn St. – 8 over SMU
• Clemson +12.5 against Texas
• Tennessee + 7.5 against Ohio St.
• Cards/Panthers UNDER 47.5
• Vikes – 3 over Seahawks
• Falcons – 8.5 over Giants

And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays for this week:

• Falcons @ minis-430
• Vikes @ minus-150
• Bucs @ minus-200     $100 wager to win $208

And …

• Bengals @ minus-420
• Falcons @-430
• Vikes @ minus-150     $100 wager to win $154

And …

• Commanders @ +165
• Bucs @ minus-200     $100 wager to win $298

Finally, words from Vince Lombardi:

“Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………