Four QBs In This Offseason

During last year’s NFL offseason, both Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson were free agents whose reputations were “tarnished” at best.  Darnold was seen as a classical underachiever who had been taken in the Top-5 of his draft class and who never played as if he was worth that status.  Wilson was thought to be on the downward arc of his career – – if not washed up.  Both QBs proved the skeptics wrong.

Sam Darnold has led the Vikes to a 12-2-0 record equaling the Lions’ record for the lead in the NFC North Division.  The Vikes average 26.4 points per game this year; in 14 games to date in 2024, Darnold has already thrown for 500 more yards than he has ever posted in a full season previously.  Darnold is 27 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent once again at the end of this season.

Russell Wilson did not start the season at QB for the Steelers due to injury, but he has been the starter for the last 8 Steelers’ games and the team has gone 6-2-0 under his leadership.  So far in 2024, Wilson has thrown 13 TD passes and only 3 INTs.  Wilson is 36 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent once again at the end of this season.

One might think that the Vikes and Steelers would be scurrying around already making overtures to the agents for those two QBs, but each team has a wrinkle to iron out:

• The Vikes drafted JJ McCarthy in the first round of the Draft last April.  McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury at the end of training camp which led to Sam Darnold becoming the starter in Minnesota.  All indications are that McCarthy will be fully recovered for next year – – so what will the Vikes commit themselves to in signing Darnold once again?
• The Steelers’ situation is even more intriguing.  In addition to Wilson’s expiring contract this year, the Steelers acquired Justin Fields last Spring and like Wilson and Darnold, Justin Fields will be an unrestricted free agent once this NFL season comes to a close.  Fields started the season for the Steelers while Wilson was on the shelf and the Steelers were 4-2-0 with Fields under center.  So, what might the Steelers be doing with their two quarterbacking possibilities?

It seems to me that the Vikes can try to resign Darnold fairly aggressively since McCarthy is on a rookie contract allowing the team to have two players at the position without overloading the cap at the QB position.  McCarthy is not eligible to shop around and find himself a “better deal” so the Vikes can negotiate with Darnold knowing what their “other guy” is going to cost them in 2025 and beyond.

The Steelers are not nearly in such a position of certainty because both QBs will be able to have their agents “shop around” in an attempt to create a marketplace for the QB talents and maybe even a “bidding war”.  If it appears that both QBs are looking at getting contracts where the sum of the two is too rich for the Steelers’ cap space, the team will have to make an early decision regarding which QB to cast their lot with.

At least one of these three QBs is likely to be playing elsewhere next year – – and potentially all three of them.  Given the success all three of them had in 2024 – – far beyond what had been projected for them in 2024 – – some other teams in the league may be very interested acquiring their services for 2025 and beyond.

And just in case you think those three QBs will monopolize the spotlight in the NFL offseason, do not forget that Brock Purdy’s rookie contract is over at the end of this season too.  Purdy has been far more successful early in his career than either Darnold or Fields.  He is young (25 years old) with a record of 23-11-0 as a starting QB.  Nonetheless, there are some who call him a “system QB” – – a guy who is successful because of the offensive system he plays in rather than a guy who can be successful because of his talents in just about any competent system.  How do the Niners see Purdy as a QB going forward?  The answer to that question will become more apparent once the Niners’ season is over.

There are plenty of QB-needy teams in the NFL – – I count six of them – – and if the Steelers were to lose out on signing both Wilson and Fields in this offseason, the Steelers would quickly join that QB-needy list.  Last year’s draft class had lots of hot QB prospects; frankly, I think this year’s draft class is very thin at the QB position and if the majority of NFL scouts hold the same view, this year’s competition might be for the four QBs discussed here based on 2024 performance.

This offseason might be entertaining indeed.

Moving on – – but sticking with NFL QBs …  The Falcons announced that Michael Penix, Jr. will start this week against the woebegone NY Giants and Kirk Cousins will watch from the sidelines.  We could debate that move and wonder about its implications, but rather than that I think there is an interesting side light to that move:

• When it was assumed that Cousins would still be the QB for the Falcons, the line for the game was Atlanta – 9.
• Now that Penix is known to be the QB for the Falcons, the line for the game is Atlanta – 9.
• The oddsmakers and the betting public have not moved the line at all.  Will that stability last until game time?
• What about the Total Line?  Before the announcement of the change, the Total Line was 41.5 points; now about 48 hours after the announcement of the change, the Total Line is 40.5 points.  Not much of a movement there either.

Finally, a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Precious:  Code word meaning ‘intolerable’.  Used when referring to such things as a small child’s attempt at ballet or any human-interest story airing on National Public Radio.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………