Surprises Today …

Where to start today …?  Contrary to normal behavior, Scott Boras had his premier free agent sign before Christmas this year making a big news splash but keeping the “drama” to a minimum length.  Juan Soto will be a Met for 15 years and a reported $765M.  There is an opt out clause in there and there are supposedly incentives that could kick up the total value so take that $765M figure with a grain of salt.  Soto is only 26 years old; he has been in the major leagues since he was 19 and his batting stats have been prodigious.

• At the age of 21, he led the National League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging.
• At the age of 21 he led MLB in OPS posting a figure of 1.185.
• Normalized to a 162-game schedule, he projects to have an OPS of .953 with 32 HRs and 102 RBIs.

Two things about this signing stand out for me:

1. Soto was a Yankee last year and will be a Met next year – – and the year after that and …  I have trouble imagining that sort of situation obtaining during the George Steinbrenner Era; I doubt he would have been outbid for someone like Soto and I doubly doubt that he would have been outbid by the Mets.
2. This signing is another indicator that MLB would be well served by a salary cap and salary floor.  By that I do not mean that the Mets are now prohibitive favorites to win the World Series a half-dozen times in the next decade; what I mean is that this signing demonstrates why a bunch of teams either in “smaller markets” or with owners whose pockets are not nearly as deep as the Mets’ owner’s are have little to no chance to win even one World Series.

The NFL’s mantra about “On any given Sunday …” is more than a marketing slogan.  The NFL system allows for well-managed teams to win championships even if they are not in New York or Los Angeles or Chicago.  In fact, only two of the last sixteen Super Bowl winners came from those three population centers.

Moving on – – but staying with baseball …  The Baseball Hall of Fame Eras Committee voted to induct Dick Allen and Dave Parker into the Hall of Fame righting a wrong that has existed for about 30 years.  Allen and Parker were hitters that demanded attention every time they came to the plate because both players hit more than a couple of moonshots than may have taken a day or two to come down out of the sky.  Allen died in 2020 so he never got to see his plaque in the Hall of Fame; Parker is still alive and will experience that joy.

Next up …  The field for the first of the expanded CFPs has been set; the Selection Committee has spoken.  Remember, I said that the Committee was not charged with identifying the 12 best teams in the country; they were given parameters regarding conference champions and seeding rules that they had to follow.  And, in fact, I do not believe that they came up with the 12 best teams for the CFP field.

I do NOT think any team was “snubbed” nor do I think that there were any backroom shenanigans that shaped the field.  In my opinion, the Committee had to minimize the problems created by those constraints, but they also made a mistake or two.

• Looking at the four teams receiving BYEs for the first round of the tournament, I have no problem with either Oregon or Georgia on that list.  I do have a problem with both Boise St. and Arizona St. when I try to square “best teams” with “first-round BYEs”.
• I do not think that both Clemson and SMU belong in the field.  Clemson is the conference champ – – having beaten SMU in the Championship Game – – so they must be in the field by rule.
• Now, even if the Committee wants to have both Clemson and SMU in the field, how can they rank SMU ahead of Clemson when Clemson beat SMU about 24 hours before the CFP field was announced?

My opinions here have nothing to do with stats; I am applying strength of schedule and “the eyeball test” to form my rankings and using those two metrics, I believe:

• Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina are more worthy of being in the CFP than SMU or Indiana.
• Based on my “eyeball test”, I do not think either SMU or Indiana could have posted the records that they did had they played the same rigorous schedule that the three SEC teams did.

This expanded CFP will play its first game on December 20^th when Notre Dame and Indiana square off.  The final game will be on January 20, 2025.  The good news is that the National Champion will be decided on the field.

Finally, since today was about mistakes (by the CFP Selection Committee) and correcting a longstanding mistake (Dick Allen and Dave Parker getting into the Hall of Fame), let me close with these words from Cicero:

“Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………