I have officially recovered from my food-induced coma from last week and I am ready to try a good old-fashioned Football Friday for this week. This one will present the Brothel Defense Award for 2024, and it will set up the imaginary SHOE Tournament that would identify this year’s worst college football team. So, buckle up while I get a couple of standard items out of the way.
Last weekend, the Linfield University Wildcats won their first game in the Division III college football tournament beating Texas Lutheran 65-3. This week, the Wildcats stay home and play host to Mary Hardin-Baylor who will be making a trek of about 2000 miles from Belton, TX for the game. The Crusaders bring an 8-3 record to the kickoff. Go Wildcats!
My pre-season selection as a “sleeper team” for 2024 was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers managed to make themselves bowl eligible by winning 6 games which is an improvement over the last 5 seasons – – but in truth, I thought they might win as many as 8 games. No matter: Nebraska fans will get to travel to wherever their team gets to play one more game this year. Go Huskers!
College Football Commentary:
As we come down to the weekend that will determine conference champions in college football, I want to start by identifying teams with laudatory records:
- Undefeated in 2024:
- Oregon. That’s the list
- One Loss in 2024:
- Army
- Boise St.
- Indiana
- Notre Dame
- Penn St.
- SMU
- Texas
Barring something really weird going down this weekend, I cannot see any scenario where both Boise St. and Army make the CFP. I can envision ways that neither one makes the playoffs, but not any way for them both to get in. Here is a link to an ESPN.com article that will give you the latest CFP Rankings by the Selection Committee so you can see how the committee sees the college football landscape prior to this championship weekend.
Two teams ranked very highly – – Penn St. at #3 and Notre Dame at #4 – – are question marks in my mind. Neither team played a difficult schedule and both teams looked good-but-not-more-than-that too often for me to think they are as good as those rankings indicate. But I need not worry about that now because the CFP will determine the national champion – – and sort of give us a better perspective on the rankings via the eyeball test – – on the field and on TV.
For me, the much more interesting aspect of the CFP is down at the cut line for invitations. Based on the rankings alone Miami would be in the playoffs while Ole Miss and South Carolina would be out. Having seen all three of those teams this year, I think Miami is the weakest of the bunch – – but that is just me and I don’t have a vote.
Let me look at a few of the key game results from last weekend.
Michigan 13 Ohio St. 10: The Buckeyes were 21-point favorites in this game and – to use a horseracing term – – spit the bit. Michigan will go to a minor bowl game with the win; Ohio St. will sit out the Big-10 Championship Game as a result of the loss. There are some in Columbus who want Ryan Day to leave town and for the Buckeyes to get a new coach. Day’s overall record at Ohio St is 66-10 which is fine – – except – – his record against Michigan is only 1-4.
S Carolina 17 Clemson 14: Both teams are now 9-3. That loss would certainly have left Clemson out of consideration for the CFP – – except Miami lost as well last weekend and that puts Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A win there gives them a guaranteed slot; a loss will send them to a minor bowl game. Do not sleep on South Carolina: they have three losses in 2024 but two of the losses were to Alabama (by 2 points) and to LSU (by 3 points). The Gamecocks played a difficult schedule and played it well.
Syracuse 42 Miami 38: Speaking of the ACC Championship Game, this loss to Syracuse took Miami out of that picture. Two weeks ago, Miami was ranked as the #6 team by the CFP Committee; this week they dropped to #12 which is the lowest slot admissible. Miami led 21-0 at one point in this game and still managed to lose in the end.
Notre Dame 49 USC 35: Note the margin of victory here is 2 TDs. The Irish got two Pick-Six scores in the 4th quarter of the game. One was for 100 yards and the other was for 99 yards – – in the same quarter of the same game. USC is not a great team despite its history in college football and that is what it took for Notre Dame to win the game. As I said, the Irish are good this year; but I am not ready to label them as dominant or fearsome or anything like that. Here are the “best teams” Notre Dame has beaten this season:
- Texas A&M – – above average team
- Georgia Tech – – above average team
- USC – – average team.
Texas 17, Texas A&M 7: The Longhorns are now 11-1 and will take on Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That one loss for Texas came at the hands of Georgia back in mid-October; the game was in Austin and Georgia won by 15 points. It should be a great rematch. In the game against Texas A&M, the Longhorns dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Aggies by just over 200 yards for the day. Normally, such a disparity in offense leads to a much bigger margin of victory than 10 points. Texas took a 17-0 lead with about 6 minutes to play in the second quarter. After that score, here are the Texas possessions for the rest of the game:
- 6 plays 28 yards Missed Field Goal
- 5 plays 32 yards PUNT
- 11 plays 78 yards INT
- 12 plays 64 yards LOST FUMBLE
- 5 plays 27 yards BLOCKED PUNT
- 6 plays 21 yards PUNT
- 3 plays minus-3 yards End of Game
Indiana 66 Purdue 0: Indiana made sure that they did not disappear from the sight of the CFP Committee with this dominant performance. Make no mistake, Purdue is a bad football team [Foreshadowing here: you will see them in the SHOE Tournament field.] but what Indiana did to them last week is embarrassing.
- Purdue Total Offense = 67 yards
- Indiana Total Offense = 582 yards
- Purdue was 0 for 11 in third-down situations
- Purdue averaged only 1.5 yards per offensive play.
BC 34 Pitt 23: I put this here because Pitt started out the season winning its first 7 games. This loss was the fifth loss in a row for the Panthers. Odd …
Colorado 52 Oklahoma St. 0: In preseason polls, Oklahoma St. was projected to be at the top of the Big-12 standings and a participant in the conference championship game. Not quite … The Cowboys’ overall record for 2024 was 3-9 and their conference record was 0-9.
Georgia 44 Georgia Tech 42: It took 8 overtime periods to settle this one. Tech dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Bulldogs by149 yards, but Georgia came out on top in this big rivalry game.
FAU 63 Tulsa 16: Both teams are 3-9 for the season; this was not a game of importance. The score at halftime was 42-9. Tulsa’s “defense” gave up 362 yards rushing (13.4 yards per carry) and 656 yards of Total Offense – – to a team that had only won 2 games at kickoff time and was on the SHOE Watchlist.
And now the time has come to identify the college football Brothel Defense Award for 2024. This “Award” celebrates the team defense that allowed the most scoring for the season; it was easy to score on just as it is easy to score in a brothel. And the “winner” of this “award” is:
- Kent State University which gave up 44.1 points per game.
Before getting to the college games this weekend, let me identify the 8 teams that I would put in the SHOE Tournament for this year should such a tournament actually exist.
- Seed #1 Kent State: They are the only winless team in Division 1- A college football this year and they are the winner of the Brothel Defense Award. ‘Nuff said.
- Seed #2 Purdue: Their record is 1-11; that win was back in August over Division 1-AA Indiana St.
- Seed #3 Southern Mississippi: Their record is 1-11; that win was in September over Division 1-AA SE Louisiana. And … all eleven losses were by double-digits.
- Seed #4 UMass: Their record is 2-10 which sounds better than 1-11 except that both of those wins were over Division 1-AA schools.
- Seed #5 Tulsa: Their record is 3-9 but just take a look at the egg they laid last weekend against FAU (see above) for why they belong here.
- Seed #6 Florida St.: Their record is 2-10 but the Seminoles may not have been that good. One win was over Division 1-AA Charleston Southern which finished 1-11 against Division 1-AA competition. Yikes!
- Seed #7 Temple: Their record is 3-9 but they have been outplayed too often to be considered clear of this potential ignominy.
- Seed #8 Oklahoma St.: Their record is 3-9 but their underperformance of expectations needs to be recognized by their placement here.
[Aside: If you expected to see Kennesaw St. on this list with their 2-10 record, I left them out because this is their first year in Division 1-A and so they get a pass … just once.]
This Week’s Games:
(Fri Nite) Tulane – 4.5 vs, Army (45.5): This is the American Conference Championship Game. Army’s only loss was to Notre Dame; Tulane has lost 3 times – – to Kansas St., Oklahoma and Memphis. When Tulane played Navy, the Green Wave won 35-0.
(Fri Nite) UNLV vs. Boise St. (58.5): This is the Mountain West Championship Game. If Boise St. wins here they are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the CFP; if they lose, things could get exciting. This is a rematch from late October; back then, Boise St, went to Las Vegas and beat the Rebels 29-24. UNLV has not lost since that game. This game will be on the “Smurf Turf” in Boise and fortunately the weather will merely be “cold” and not “unfit for human habitation” as could be the case in early December. Nevertheless, I think the weather will not be conducive to explosive offensive football, so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER; put that in the Betting Bundle.
Iowa St. vs. Arizona St. – 2 (50): This is the Big-12 Championship Game. Both teams are 10-2 for the season; they did not meet earlier in this season. I have exactly no sense how this game will unfold; neither team has grabbed my attention so far in 2024.
Ohio vs Miami (OH) – 2 (43): This is the MAC Championship Game. In terms of timing, this game is on at the same time as the Iowa St./Arizona St. game. Not exactly a compelling reason to be in front of my TV early in the afternoon on Saturday…
Georgia vs Texas – 3 (50): This is the SEC Championship Game, and it is my College Football Game of the Week. Texas lost once this year – – at home by 15 points to Georgia. This is a big-time rematch. I don’t know why the oddsmakers have Texas favored here because I think this is a “pick ’em game” so I’ll take those 3 points along with the Bulldogs; put that in the Betting Bundle.
Marshall vs. La-Lafayette – 5.5 (58): This is the Sun Belt Championship Game. Marshall is 9-3 this year and has won 6 games in a row; La-Lafayette is 10-2 this year. I have now exhausted my insight into this contest…
Clemson vs, SMU – 3 (55.5): This is the ACC Championship Game. The winner gets into the CFP and the loser does not. Clemson lost a close game to bitter rival South Carolina last week by a field goal; SMU is 11-1 on the season but they never played a team nearly as good as South Carolina. Again, I think this is a “pick ‘em game”; and so once again, I will take the Tigers plus the points; put that in the Betting Bundle.
Penn St. vs. Oregon – 3.5 (50.5): This is the Big-10 Championship Game; I thought about labeling this as the College Game of the Week for more than a couple of minutes. I can see this game going down to the final possession and being decided by a play or two in the final three or four minutes. I can also see this game as an Oregon blow-out. What I cannot see is Penn St. running Oregon out of the building. I’ll just sit back and watch this one and look for players who might be interesting draft picks for the NFL next Spring.
NFL Commentary:
The NFL regular season race has hit the quarter pole and teams in the running for playoff slots need to kick it up a notch [Hat Tip to Emeril Lagasse] in the final month of the regular season. So let me look at the playoff picture as it stands now. In the American Conference:
- The Bills have clinched the AFC East, and the Chiefs have clinched a playoff spot – – but not their division title as of now.
- The “last team in” for the AFC playoffs might get in with a 9-8 record but a 10-7 record is much more likely to work for a team. So, the Steelers, Texans, Chargers and Ravens all appear to be in good position. The Steelers are 9-3 today; the other three teams have 8 wins apiece.
- If that situation continues to hold, that means there is one playoff slot left for the rest of the conference. AND according to NFL.com, only the Raiders, the Pats and the Jags have been mathematically eliminated.
- My pick as of today for that last playoff spot would be the Broncos with the Colts being the team chasing the Broncos.
Meanwhile, over in the National Conference:
- Lots of stuff is up in the air this morning; four teams are in a grouping that stands out from the rest of the conference. The Lions have 12 wins; the Eagles and Vikes each have 10 wins, and the Packers have 9 wins as of today. The Lions have not clinched their division as of today, but last night’s win over the Packers guarantees that the Lions will take part in the NFC playoffs. The Eagles showed us last year that a December Melt-Down is a real thing; nonetheless, it would take some sort of cataclysmic collapse on the part of those 4 teams to miss the playoffs this year. Count all three of the other teams here in …
- In the NFC West, two games separate the top team – – Seahawks – – from the last place team – – Niners. The division winner gets in of course but it might be difficult to find a way to get more than one team from the NFC West into the playoffs. I doubt the Niners can rally to win the division this year; (see below) having said that, I really have no idea which of the other three teams will come out on top in this division.
- In the NFC South, the Bucs and the Falcons are tied at the top of the division with 6-6 records. Again, the division winner will get in, but it is not clear how another team sneaks in from that division. The remaining schedule for the Bucs is awfully soft so I guess I like the Bucs to win that division again this year.
- So, with the four teams identified at the top here plus the two division winners in those tight divisional races, that leaves one playoff slot in the NFC up for grabs. Only the Giants in the NFC have been mathematically eliminated and so the race is on. My pick is the Commanders to fill that slot.
Here are some comments on games from last weekend:
Broncos 41 Browns 32: This game was a perfect example of what I call:
- The Jameis Winston Experience
Winston threw for 475 yards and the Browns racked up 552 yards on offense. Winston threw for 4 TDs and racked up fantasy points galore. How great is that? Winston also threw 3 INTs in the game including 2 Pick-Sixes – – one of them coming with 2 minutes left in the game and the Browns trailing by only 2 points.
Eagles 24 Ravens 19: It would be simplistic to try to pin this loss on Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker who missed two field goas and an extra point in the game decided by only 5 points. Rather, the game was won by the Eagles’ defense which held Derrick Henry to only 82 yards rushing and which sacked Lamar Jackson 3 times. Oh, by the way, having Saquon Barkley rush for 107 yards and a TD did not hurt either.
Commanders 42 Titans 18: Forget the stats; this game was as lopsided as the score indicates. The Titans were outplayed at all positions and for the entirety of the game. In addition, the Titans committed 11 penalties in the first half of the game – – in the first half! That may have been the best showing by the Commanders so far in 2024.
Vikes 23 Cards 22: The Vikes pulled another rabbit out of a hat and scored with about a minute and a half left in the game to beat a Cards’ team that outgained the Vikes by more than 130 yards for the game.
Steelers 44 Bengals 38: When you think of AFC North games, you usually picture a game where defense and field position are key strategic elements and getting the total score up around 50 points is not commonplace. And then there is this game …Russell Wilson continued his march toward “Comeback Player of the Year” throwing for 414 yards and 3 TDs. The Steelers‘ defense does not give up 30+ points very often, but the Bengals made the Steelers sweat a bit on the way to this win. Here is a stat I ran across:
- Joe Burrow has thrown for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in each of his last 3 games.
- The Bengals have lost all three of those games.
Seahawks 26 Jets 21: It did not happen at the end of the game, but the margin of victory here was provided by Seahawks’ DT Leonard Williams – – late of the Jets – – who intercepted an Aaron Rodgers pass and went “rumblin’ and stumblin’ all the way” for a Pick Six event. [Hat tip to Chris Berman there.]
Bucs 26 Panthers 23 (OT): It took some last-minute heroics from Baker Mayfield to send the game to OT allowing the Bucs to win their 6th game of the year which ties them with the Falcons atop the NFC South.
Chargers 17 Falcons 13: The Falcons sacked Justin Herbert 5 times in the game and lost; that usually does not happen. However, Falcons’ QB, Kirk Cousins threw 4 INTs in the game; usually when that happens the team loses – – as it did here.
Bills 38 Niners 10: December in Buffalo in an outdoor stadium; the weather made the game fun in the sense that you don’t get to see many games like that in a season. My takeaway from the game is that the Niners are a team in trouble; they have too many injuries to too many of their best players.
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Nick Bosa
- Dre Greenlaw
- Jordan Mason
- Christian McCaffrey
- Trent Williams
Everyone will remember this game for the “hook and ladder play” with Amari Cooper and Josh Allen, but I think the status of the Niners’ roster revealing itself so vividly is the most important thing to take away from the game.
Games This Week:
Six teams will get to rest this weekend as NFL BYE Weeks come to a close:
- Broncos: I doubt that Bo Nix will win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I do think he is the biggest surprise of the 2024 Draft Class. I think he is definitely a keeper.
- Colts: If my guess is correct that it will take 10 wins to make the playoffs in the AFC, then the Colts need to win out from here.
- Commanders: They are in a good place; they are a young team; they need to avoid reading the kudos being sent their way and especially to avoid believing that they are as good as their fanboys make them out to be.
- Pats: They are 3-10; they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs; there is a lot of rebuilding left to be done with that squad
- Ravens: As this team does some self-analysis, they really need to figure out how a team as talented as they are can have lost 5 games this season.
- Texans: CJ Stroud is suffering a mild sophomore slump; nonetheless, the Texans have a two-game lead in the AFC South division, and they need to maintain their focus down the stretch.
The Lions took care of business last night beating the Packers 34-31 on a last-second field goal. There was an unusual stat produced in the game; the Lions converted 4 of 5 fourth-down situations. That is unusual in two ways:
- It is unusual for a team to try for a first down on 4th down 5 times in a game.
- It is unusual for the team doing so to win the game. Normally, that sort of stat would indicate the team was grasping at straws to stay in a game.
Do not misinterpret; the Lions did not win this game by a fluke. The Lions outgained the Packers by about 100 yards and held the ball for 36 minutes in the game.
Falcons at Vikes – 5.5 (45.5): I guess you can call this a “Homecoming Game” for Kirk Cousins after all his time wearing purple jerseys. He must play better than he did last week; four INTs this week against the Vikes would be a disaster.
Saints – 4.5 at Giants (41): At first glance, I thought this would be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week but not quite. The Giants are awful no matter who they trot out at QB and the Saints are only a little better. The Giants do have one distinctive feature about them as of today:
- They are the only team in the NFL to be winless at home.
- They are 0-6-0 in front of their home fans.
Do your best to ignore this game.
Jags at Titans – 3.5 (39.5): This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. These are two miserable teams where the game will likely come down to which team makes the last bad play. Speaking of making bad plays, the Jags are the only team in the league that allows 400+ yards per game to the opponent. Ugh! The acronym for this game is “AYE” – – Avert Your Eyes.
Raiders at Bucs – 7 (46): This is the second road game in a row for the Raiders; that is never an easy thing for a team and especially not for a less-than-mediocre team. Nevertheless, the Bucs tend to play to the level of their opponent and this game could be closer than you might expect. I admit I was tempted to take the Raiders with the points here, but I just don’t trust Aiden O’ Connell against a blitz-happy Bucs’ defense.
Browns at Steelers – 7 (43.5): Both teams played high-scoring games last week (see above). I doubt that is going to happen again. However, a final score of 24-20 would put this game OVER and I do not think that is an outrageous expectation; I like the OVER here; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Panthers at Eagles – 13 (46): This is a Sandwich Game for the Eagles. Be very afraid… The Eagles had a big win over the Ravens last week; next week they have the Steelers coming to pay a visit; between those tough games come the “lowly Panthers”. Bryce Young has been playing well and the Panthers have not been the patsies they had been for the first half of the year.
Jets at Dolphins – 5.5 (44.5): Neither team is “eliminated” from the playoffs yet, but neither one is likely to be playing beyond the first weekend in January. The Dolphins have looked a lot better since Tua came back to the lineup, but even that is not enough to make it a fearsome opponent. The Jets need to find a latter-day Moses to lead them out of the desert. Here is my simple-minded assessment of this game:
- The Dolphins play poorly in cold-weather games; this game is in Miami; it will not be cold.
- The Jets play poorly in cold-weather, hot-weather or lovely-weather games.
Based on that meteorological analysis, I like the Dolphins at home to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Seahawks at Cards – 2.5 (44): This is an important NFC West division game so that makes it the Game of the Week. The Seahawks beat the Cards in Seattle putting them atop the division standings; the Cards need this one to avoid falling two games behind the Seahawks – – and losing the tiebreaker there – – with only four games to go after this week.
Bills – 3 at Rams (49): You might expect a small letdown by the Bills after clinching the AFC East last weekend. However, they are a game behind the Chiefs in the race for the BYE Week and homefield throughout the playoffs. That should keep the team motivated.
Bears at Niners – 4 (44): The Niners are a M*A*S*H unit (see above); the Bears’ most common trait is to invent a way to lose a game at the very end. Who knows which malady will prevail here?
(Sun Nite) Chargers at Chiefs – 4 (43): This is my runner-up for Game of the Week because it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can continue to win games by a razor thin margin with miraculous endings. The Chargers need this game more than the Chiefs need it – – although the Chiefs do want to stay ahead of the Bills for that BYE Week in the playoffs.
(Mon Nite) Bengals – 5.5 at Cowboys (49): Here we have two bad defenses [I am trying to be ever so polite here] and two competent offenses. So, why is the Total Line at 49 and not at 55? Another point: I think that line is fat. So, give me the Cowboys plus the points AND give me the game to go OVER; put both in the “Betting Bundle”.
Let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- UNLV/Boise St. UNDER 58.5
- Georgia +3 against Texas
- Clemson +3 against SMU
- Browns/Steelers OVER 43.5
- Dolphins – 5.5 over Jets
- Cowboys +5.5 against Bengals
- Cowboys/Bengals OVER 49
[Aside: With seven entries, this is more like a “Speculative Sack” than a mere “Betting Bundle”.]
But wait; there’s more. Here are four Money Line Parlays just for fun:
- Boise St. @ minus-200
- Oregon @ minus-170 $100 wager to win $139
And …
- Boise St @ minus-200
- Oregon @ minus-170
- Georgia @ +125 $100 wager to win $436
And …
- Cowboys @ +205
- Dolphins @ – 240 $100 wager to win $332
And …
- Saints @ minus-200
- Bills @ minus-180
- Bears @ +165 $100 wager to win $518
Finally, today’s “last words” come from Vince Lombardi:
“If you aren’t fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………