Month: December 2024

There were two sports-world related deaths last week – – Greg Gumbel and Bill Bergey.  Greg Gumbel was a great broadcaster; he was one of the rare individuals who excelled at doing play-by-play and at being a studio host.  Not many people even try to exist in those two worlds; Greg Gumbel did and he was excellent at both.

Bill Bergey was a great linebacker for the Bengals and the Eagles in the 1960s and 1970s.  He did not get the same level of recognition as some other linebackers of his time because the Eagles’ teams he played for were abysmal.  Nonetheless, Bill Bergey was a force majeure.

Rest in peace, Greg Gumbel and Bill Bergey.

Since I mentioned Bill Bergey, he is not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but I think that he is one of those players who would have gotten into the Hall had he been on more successful teams.  The list of 15 finalists for enshrinement this year has just been released, and I will use this opportunity to present the list and then to give you my selections.

• Eric Allen
• Jared Allen
• Jahri Evans
• Antonio Gates
• Tory Holt
• Luke Kuechly
• Eli Manning
• Steve Smith, Sr.
• Terrell Suggs
• Fred Taylor
• Adam Vinatieri
• Reggie Wayne
• Darren Woodsen
• Marshall Yanda

There is a maximum of 5 members to a new class for the Hall of Fame and a successful aspirant needs to get 80% of the votes cast.  Stipulating that every name on that list is worthy of placement on the list, here would be my five votes – – if I had a vote in the first place:

1. Eric Allen – – A really good player on some really mediocre teams
2. Antonio Gates – – I am surprised that he is not already in the Hall of Fame
3. Tory Holt – – An integral part of the “Greatest Show on Turf”
4. Terrell Suggs – – Simply a great edge rusher
5. Marshall Yanda – – Great in pass protection and a bulldozer on run plays

Moving on …  When Travis Hunter won the Heisman Trophy earlier this month, he created a new “category” of trophy winners because it is difficult to say whether he is a great WR who also plays CB or vice versa.  Since he would obviously be the only player in that new category, I wondered what the distribution among other positions was for Heisman winners.  If I have counted correctly:

• 44 Running Backs – – collapsing fullbacks and halfbacks
• 39 Quarterbacks
• 4 Wide Receivers
• 2 Tight Ends
• 1 Cornerback

Defense may win championships, but offense gets a dominant share of public recognition.

Finally, I’ll close here with these words from coach John Heisman to give you an idea of his focus on football fundamentals”

“Gentlemen, it is better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

One Holiday down – – one Holiday to go.  In between, there comes a Friday and that suggests a Football Friday.  Let’s start with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Bets on spreads and totals:  3 wins, 3 losses, 1 push.  Meh!
• Money Line Parlays:  1 win, 2 losses.  “Net Loss” = $46  Not good.

 

College Football Commentary

 

            I am not going to go through the four first round games of the CFP from last weekend because I want to focus on the CFP itself today.  There is going to be negativity in some of the commentary; so, I want to be sure to begin by saying this is NOT going to be a nostalgia piece shining glory on “the way it used to be”.  I have no fondness at all for the days when a “college football national champion” was determined by polls where many of the voters never saw the top teams play.

The BCS used computer rankings and stat analysis to pair two teams in a single championship game.  That was better than polling; it was controversial to say the least and at least one team every year got to play the “we were snubbed” card.   So, the answer was to create the CFP with four teams in a simple bracket.  Better still – – but maybe not perfect.

Fortunately – – or unfortunately depending on how you look at it – – the three-game CFP drew sizeable TV audiences and sizeable TV audiences can be monetized pretty easily.  Expansion was “the answer” because “expansion” also meant “cash flow”.  That was not the explanation given when expansion was being formulated; rather, the narrative was that an expanded CFP would assure that all worthy aspirants to the national championship would get the chance to show their stuff on the field.  Oh, and as a sidelight, fans would get more football entertainment.  What could possibly go wrong?

Some folks who comment on sports wondered why the expansion had to go from 4 teams to 12 teams because in all the years that I have followed college football, there has never been a time when 12 teams could make a legitimate case for themselves as national champion.  Usually, four teams battling it out on the field would be sufficient; maybe occasionally a fifth or sixth team could “enter the chat”, but never 12 teams.  I said that the potential for first-round blowouts was a real potential downside; so, I was part of that “12-team skepticism” and the results from Round One of the first 12-team CFP have not alleviated that skepticism.

The “closest game” in the first round was Notre Dame/Indiana where the Irish won by 10 points.  But that is terribly misleading because with 2 minutes left in the game, the score was Notre Dame 27 and Indiana 3.  That “closest game” was a blowout that was never in doubt in the second half.  The first-round games fell far short of “entertaining”.

I still believe that having a field of 12 contenders for the national championship is too large but when you add to that bloated field restrictions as to who “must be invited” and how the seedings must be done, you wind up in a situation where the Selection Committee is painted into a corner.  And it certainly seems as if this year’s Selection Committee failed to account for a very important aspect of the selection process:

• Strength Of Schedule

We saw last year what can happen when an undefeated team from Conference-USA (Liberty) was matched with Oregon in a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  The final score was 45-6; the only positive thing you might say about the game was that Liberty actually led 6-3 at the end of the first quarter.  The “problem” here is that while Liberty was 13-0 entering the game, they had not played anyone close to the caliber of Oregon and several of Oregon’s opponents.  There is more to assessing a team’s strength than their win-loss record; you must consider to whom the team lost and over whom the team was victorious.

In 2024, the Selection Committee – – with all the constraints handed to it – – made it worse in my opinion.  Please do not take the following as put downs for teams in this year’s CFP; what I intend is to suggest that strength of schedule should have been given more weight in selecting the field.

Let me start with Indiana and let me say up front that the Hoosiers can only play the teams on their schedule; they have no flexibility.  Having said that please look at their 11-1 record as they arrive at the CFP:

• Out of Conference Games:  Florida International, Western Illinois, Charlotte.  FIU won 4 games playing a C-USA schedule, Western Illinois is Division 1-AA and Charlotte won 5 games playing an American Conference schedule.
• Big-10 Games:  Indiana did NOT play Oregon, Penn St., Illinois or Iowa – – four of the six best records in the conference.  When they did play Ohio St., Indiana lost by 23 points.
• Indiana’s record in front of the Committee was 11-1 and it was built on a cupcake schedule.

Next consider SMU.  They presented a record of 11-2 to the Selection Committee and one of the losses was in the ACC Championship Game.  Sounds good until you look at the opponents.  From my perspective, SMU’s two “signature wins” were over Louisville by 7 points and Duke by 1 point.  Now, if those are “signature wins” let me assert that the “signature” was not nearly as bold and outstanding as was John Hancock’s on the Declaration of Independence.  Once again it was a laudable record compiled at the expense of mediocre opponents.

I am not trying to pick on the ACC today, but the other team from that conference – – Clemson – – was the Conference Champion and it was overmatched in Round One of the CFP.  The Committee had no choice but to include that conference champion even with 3 losses on its record.  The fact is that this was a “down year” for football in the ACC; Round One of the CFP this year convinced me that none of the ACC teams should have been included.

I will get back to the teams invited to participate in a moment but let me take on another issue with the CFP as presented this year.  Playing the first-round games on the home fields of the higher seeded teams is piling on.  The Committee in its wisdom has declared the four teams that are “superior” to their first-round opponents via the seeding process.  So, now you give those teams the added advantage of a home game?

Some commentators think that one more expansion of the CFP will resolve the issues because if you expand the field to 16 teams, you need not give out any BYE Weeks thereby making the seedings less constrained.  To that suggestion, I say, “Buncombe”.  [Hat Tip to H. L. Mencken there.]

• There are already too many teams in the CFP.
• Why would this year’s CFP be better with four more teams all of whom the Selection Committee deems to be inferior to Indiana, SMU and/or Clemson?

I know that the CFP will eventually go to 16 games simply because of the TV dollars that will be made available.  When that happens, the semi-finals and the final game will probably be entertaining TV fare and once in a while there will be a significant showing by a Cinderella Team in the early rounds, but I suspect that many games will be like the first-round games this year – – blowouts.

Moving on …  I was channel surfing and ran across the Myrtle Beach Bowl between UTSA and Coastal Carolina.  I did not stay long because the score was 21-0 and I have no particular attraction to either team.  However, I was surprised at how full the stadium was for what must be considered a “Minor” Bowl Game.  Wikipedia was helpful here.

• The venue for the game was Brooks Stadium with a capacity of 21,000.
• The attendance for this year’s bowl game was 8,164.
• Seeing a minor bowl game with 40% of the stadium filled was surprising.

 

Interesting Bowl Games This Week:

 

(Fri Afternoon) Ga Tech – 2.5 vs Vandy (51.5):  Two teams that surprised pundits this year.  Tech beat Miami and lost to Georgia by 2 points in overtime; Vandy beat Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn while losing to Texas by a field goal.

(Fri Nite Late)  Texas A&M – 4 vs USC (52):  Middle of the pack in the SEC versus middle of the pack in the Big-10.

(Sat Morning)  UConn vs UNC – 2 (53):  If this were a college basketball game, it would be “Must-See TV”.

(Sat Afternoon)  Iowa St. vs Miami – 4 (55.5):  Both teams ended the regular season on low notes.  One of them will go out on an even lower note …

(Sat Nite)  BYU vs Colorado – 4 (54.5):  Two teams from the Big-12 both of whom posted 7-2 records in conference but never faced each other.

(Tues Noon) Alabama – 12 vs Michigan (45):  In recent times, this pairing could well have been for the national championship itself.

(Tues Afternoon) South Carolina – 10 vs Illinois (47.5):  A good SEC team against a good Big-10 team.

 

CFP Games Next Week

 

(Tues Nite)  Penn St. – 11.5 vs Boise St. (51.5):  Boise St. will want to run the ball with Ashton Jeanty; Penn St. ranks #7 in the nation in rushing defense allowing 100.4 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry.  Before you jump on the Nittany Lions train because of that defense, consider that when Jeanty went up against Oregon’s defense he ran for 192 yards and 3 TDs.  I think that line is fat, so I’ll take Boise St plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Wed Afternoon)  Texas – 13.5 vs Arizona St. (51.5):  Defense matters, and Texas’ defense ranks #3 in the nation in Total Defense yielding only 261.1 yards per game.  The Arizona St. defense allows 336.9 yards per game.  Arizona St. RB, Cam Skattebo is the second-best RB I’ve seen this year, and he will test that Texas defensive line in this game.  I don’t have a good feel for this game, but I am hoping for more competitive games in this round of the CFP; so, I’ll take Arizona St. plus the points here and hope for a close game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Wed Afternoon Late)  Ohio St. – 2.5 vs Oregon (54.5):  Traditionalists will see this with a measure of nostalgia because this is the Rose Bowl, and it pits a Big-10 team against a team that used to be in the PAC-8 – – or PAC-10 or PAC-12 depending on your age.  This is also a rematch; these teams met in October in Oregon where the Ducks won by a single point.  Ohio St. had more than 450 yards on offense in that game as did Oregon.  This is the CFP Game of the Week.  I see this game as a high scoring affair; so, I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Wed Nite)  Notre Dame vs Georgia – 2.5 (44):  It appears that Gunner Stockton will make his first career start at QB for Georgia in this game.  He has played well in “relief roles” but the big unknown is his readiness for “prime time”.  Notre Dame is a running team (222 yards per game); Georgia’s run defense is only ranked #36 in the country giving up 128 yards per game.  How Georgia defends the run is the key to this one.  [Aside:  How in Hell did Notre Dame lose at home to Northern Illinois this year?]  This looks to me to be a coin flip game.  There is a standard protocol here in Curmudgeon Central for coin flip games and that protocol says to take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

Now that we know that the Chiefs will have the BYE Week in the playoffs – – and home field advantage throughout those playoffs – – the value of that BYE Week comes into focus.  The Chiefs have the option to sit Patrick Mahomes let his ankle “heal” along with other players who are “nicked”.  The game next weekend against the Broncos has no bearing on playoffs for the Chiefs and that means the next meaningful game for the Chiefs will be on the weekend of January 18 or 19.  That is more than 3 weeks of “healing time” for players with minor injuries and that is significant.

I want to say something about the Commanders/Eagles game last weekend.  That was the most poorly officiated NFL game that I have seen this year.  The officials were not biased; they missed calls and made ticky-tack calls for and against both teams from start to finish.  To give an example of what I mean, on the play that scored the winning TD for the Commanders with about 10 seconds left in the game, the right tackle for the Commanders was obviously in motion before the snap.  Even the broadcasters looking at the replay said the officials missed the call; I called for a flag in my living room before the QB released the ball.  And that was not nearly the worst call of the day.  Santa needs to have left lumps of coal in the stockings for those officials.

Often in these rants I discuss coaches on hot seats in danger of losing their jobs.  Today I want to focus on three men who – – I think – – deserve to get one of the vacant jobs come January 2025.

• Ben Johnson:  He is currently the Offensive Coordinator for the Lions and has held that position for three seasons.  He was a coveted candidate in last year’s head coaching sweepstakes but took his name out of the running choosing to return to the Lions this year.  So far, the Lions lead the NFL in scoring (493 points) and are tied with the Vikes for most offensive plays gaining 20+ yards and most offensive plays gaining 40+ yards.  Johnson is only 38 years old, and he majored in math and computer science as an undergrad; he is young, and he is smart.
• Mike Vrabel:  He was the head coach of the Titans from 2018 until he was surprisingly fired from that job last year.  He had a winning record in Tennessee in 4 of his 6 seasons there and he made the playoffs 3 times.  In the 2021 season, he was named Coach of the Year in the NFL.  He has spent this year as a consultant to the Cleveland Browns; so, if he wants another head coaching position, he can say in his interviews that he is “rested and ready”.

I suspect that anyone reading those two names above is thinking, “Nothing newsworthy about those nominees; everyone knows they will get plenty of interest”.  Well, my third head coaching candidate might surprise some:

• Brian Flores:  He is currently the Defensive Coordinator for the Vikes and in his two years at that job, he has significantly revitalized that unit.  So far in 2024, the Vikes have given up the fewest points in the NFC and are second in the NFL in scoring defense.  Moreover, he has head coaching experience with the Dolphins for 3 seasons where he took over a miserable team and managed to squeeze out two winning seasons in his three years there.  And therein lies the problem.  As a result of that firing, Flores filed a class-action lawsuit against the NFL and several teams specifically; that case is almost 3 years old now and it can easily get in the way during any interview Flores may get in this offseason.  If a team owner or GM can get beyond the allegations in that lawsuit, they should find a highly qualified candidate for their vacancy.

Now for some comments on some of last week’s games

Packers 34  Saints 0:  That is the first shutout of the year in the NFL, and it was never seriously in danger of falling since the Saints only crossed the 50 yardline twice in the game.

Bengals 24  Browns 6:  The Bengals have a dim light at the end of the tunnel that leads to the playoffs, but it remains illuminated with this win.  The Bengals’ defense has been porous all season long until last weekend; so, the question here is:

• Did the Bengals finally “figure it out” – – or – –
• Was the opposing QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, what the defense needed to succeed?

Falcons 34  Giants 7:  The Falcons recorded two Pick Sixes in the game.   The win keeps the Falcons relevant in the NFC South race.

Rams 19  Jets 9:  All of a sudden, the Rams are beating teams by shutting them down instead of outscoring them.  The Jets turned the ball over on downs twice in the game and the Rams got 10 points off those two failed fourth-down tries.  Look at the difference in the game score …

Vikes 27  Seahawks 24:  Above, I mentioned that Brian Flores has been successful in building the Vikes’ defense.  Well, last week they held the Seahawks to 2 of 10 conversions on third-down and they recorded 2 INTs.  The Vikes can still win the NFC North with this win; the Seahawks fell a full game behind the Rams in the NFC West race.

Raiders 19  Jags 14:  One of these teams had to win this stinker of a game …

Cowboys 26  Bucs 24:  The Bucs’ normally swarming defense did not show up for this one; Cooper Rush and Company moved the ball at will.  The loss leaves the Bucs tied with the Falcons in the NFC South.

 

Games This Week:

 

When the Seahawks/Bears game went to halftime last night, I did what I normally do for night games.

• I visited the facilities – – and – –
• I set a timer for 10 minutes to come back for the second half after checking my emails and texts.

The difference last night was that the first half of that game was so dreary that I thought about bagging the second half for about half a minute before I returned to my perch aside the TV.  Boy, was that ever a mistake!  Above, I said that last week got me to see the worst officiated game of the season.  Last night was the least interesting game that I saw all season.

If you are given the opportunity on some streaming service to go back and check out the action in the Seahawks 6-3 win over the Bears, politely decline that offer.  The good folks at NFL Films should find a way to quarantine – – permanently – – any visual record of that sh*tshow.

I did draw two conclusions from the game:

1. The Bears’ interim head coach is over his head in that role.  If he gets even a single interview in this offseason of coach shuffling, it will not be based on anything he has done with his time “at the helm” in Chicago this year.
2. Jayden Daniels is going to be a better NFL QB than Caleb Williams when all is said and done.

The schedule maker looks awfully prescient this week. He foresaw some late season matchups that have serious playoff implications, and he also managed to come up with two games that will pit four bad teams one upon another so that the schedule pollution is somewhat contained.

 

(Sat Early PM)  Chargers – 4 at Pats (43):  The Chargers get to leave balmy SoCal and fly about 3000 miles to play this game in Foxboro where the temperature will be in the 40s and there is a 50% chance of rain.  Not exactly ideal conditions for a team that needs to win to stay relevant in the AFC Playoffs.  The Chargers are the better team; they have the better QB; they have the better coach.  Notwithstanding all of that, the Pats gave the Bills all the Bills could handle just last week.  This game is definitely worth watching tomorrow.

(Sat Late PM)  Broncos at Bengals – 3 (49):  Here is the situation in a nutshell:

• As of today, the Broncos own the 7^th playoff slot in the AFC at 9-6-0
• The Bengals are still alive for that slot and must win out while the Broncos lose out.
• It’s an elimination game for the Bengals.

It’s another game clearly worth your attention this weekend.  I think offense dominates this game; the Broncos’ offense wins because the Bengals’ defense stinks and the Bengals’ offense wins because they have Joe Burrow and a bunch of really good pass catchers.  Give me the OVER in this game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat Nite)  Cards at Rams – 7 (48):  The spread for this game opened at 3.5 points and has exploded to this level.  The Cards were eliminated from playoff contention last week, but the Rams have their playoff aspirations in the palms of their hands.  If you decide that you need to miss one of the Saturday Games this week, make it this one.

Colts – 7.5 at Giants (40.5):  The Colts are still mathematically alive for the AFC playoffs, but I suspect that even members of Jim Irsay’s nuclear family are starting to plan for a January vacation to somewhere warm and sunny.  The Giants’ highest aspiration for this game is not to be totally embarrassed to the point where their blunders make it to Facebook Reels.

Falcons at Commanders – 4 (47.5):  I gave this game serious consideration as the Game of the week for several reasons

• Both teams are alive in the NFC playoff race
• Both teams will start a rookie QB
• Both teams have first-year head coaches who turned things around this year

A Falcons’ victory here would set up two very interesting and important games for Week 18; this game should be played with great energy by both squads.  Jayden Daniels is going to outplay Michael Penix, Jr. at the QB position and that will give the Commanders a comfortable win; give me the Commanders to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Raiders – 1 at Saints (38):  This game came ever so close to being the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because the Saints will be playing without their QB, RB and Swiss Army Knife and that has led the oddsmaker to make the woebegone Raiders a road favorite.

Titans at Jags – 1 (39):  And as miserable as the Raiders/Saints game should be, this one looks to be worse.  It is a division game between two teams who bring 3-12-0 records to the kickoff.  The QB showdown pairs two backups – – Mason Rudolph versus Mac Jones.  If that doesn’t get your juices flowing, that would make you a normal human being.  The late Pete Axthelm had a great description for this sort of a game; he called it a Smashed Windshield Game because:

• If you parked your car to go shopping and left two tickets to this game on the dashboard of your car, you would find – – upon your return – – a smashed windshield and two additional tickets to the game on your dashboard.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me present to you the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Jets at Bills – 9 (46.5):  The Bills have no motivation here; they clinched the AFC East weeks ago and they cannot get the overall #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs.  The Jets have been out of any playoff thinking for about a month now, but Aaron Rodgers has some motivation to show that he is not totally washed up such that he cannot get an NFL QB job next season.  Believe it or not, in late December in Buffalo, the weather is forecast to be in the mid-50s but with an 80% chance of rain.  Given the circumstances, would you play Josh Allen if you were the Bills’ coach?

Panthers at Bucs – 9 (49):  After spitting the bit last week against the Cowboys, the Bucs need this one to stay in the running for the NFC South title and a playoff slot.  The Panthers have shown a lot of improvement in the last month, but I don’t know that they are quite yet ready to give a motivated Bucs’ team a scare.

Packers at Vikes “pick ‘em” (49):  Here we have the Game of the Week.  The combined record for these two teams is a stunning 24-6-0.  If the Vikes win here and then win again next week over the Lions, the Vikes will win the NFC North.  However, winning this one – – even at home – – is no walk in the park for the Vikes; the Packers’ offense is hitting on all cylinders and the Packers’ defense has been smothering since early November.

Cowboys at Eagles – 7 (39):  This spread opened at 11.5 points and the Total Line opened at 44.5 points; clearly the availability of Jalen Hurts is a key element to betting on this game.  Kenny Pickett is a competent backup, but his lack of a deep passing game allows defenses to put 9 or even 10 men “in the box” making a running game nigh onto impossible.  Beyond Pickett, the Eagles will have to dig very deep should they need to depend on either Tanner McKee or recently signed off the streets Ian Book.  Adding to the cloudiness surrounding this game, the Cowboys announced last night that they will shut down CeeDee Lamb for the rest of the year.

Dolphins – 7 at Browns (40):  The Dolphins are still mathematically alive for the playoffs; the Browns have been out of it for at least a month and probably more like two months.  It is a must win game for the Dolphins and it is happening in the north in December where and when the Dolphins are historically inept.  Then again, these are the Browns as the opponents…

(Sun Nite)  Lions – 3.5 at Niners (51):  The Niners season is kaput; the Lions are guaranteed to be in the NFC Playoffs but their position in those playoffs is not secure yet.  The Niners are offensively challenged with injuries and the Lions are defensively challenged with injuries.  This game comes down to which M*A*S*H unit plays better than its opponent.  The Lions are a good team playing with a motivation factor; the Niners are merely a good team playing for “pride”.  I like the team with some positive motivation here so give me the Lions on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let’s review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Boise St. + 11.5 against Penn St.
• Arizona St. + 13.5 against Texas
• Ohio St./Oregon OVER 54.5
• Notre Dame/Georgia OVER 44
• Broncos/Bengals OVER 49
• Commanders – 4 over Falcons
• Lions – 3.5 over Niners

And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays:

• Commanders @ minus-200
• Lions @ minus-185    $100 wager to win $131

And …

• Chargers @ minus-225
• Oregon @ +125     $100 wager to win $225

And – – to end 2024 on a patriotic note …

• Army @ minus-675
• Navy @ +120   $100 wager to win $153.

Finally, closing words from Vince Lombardi:

“There is no room for second place. There is only one place in my game and that is first place. I have finished second twice in my time at Green Bay and I never want to finish second again.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Rickey Henderson died over the weekend.  He was born on Christmas Day in 1958, so he was just shy of 66 years old.  Henderson was in the major leagues for all or part of 25 seasons; he was an MVP and a multi-time All Star.  He has some amazing stats that might be considered “untouchable”.  Consider:

• Henderson is the all-time leader in stolen bases with 1,406.  In second place is Lou Brock with 938.
• Henderson is the all-time leader in runs scored with 2,295.  I believe the active player with the most runs scored is Freddie Freeman at 1298.  I’ll go out on a limb here and say that Freeman is not going to eclipse Rickey Henderson’s total.
• In 1982, Henderson led MLB in stolen bases with 130.  By comparison, in 1982 the player with the second most stolen bases was Damaso Garcia; he stole 54 bases.

In addition to those sorts of mind-boggling numbers Henderson accomplished a seemingly impossible performance in a single game.  In a game he came to the plate 4 times and walked all four times.  So, in that game, he appeared in the box score as “0-for-0” AND he also stole 5 bases in that same game.

Rest in peace, Rickey Henderson…

I mentioned here before that ESPN plans to shut down Around the Horn in 2025 and I am on record that I think the time has come for that to happen.  I read somewhere recently that the suits at ESPN are considering the possibility of filling the time slot currently occupied by Around the Horn with an expansion of Pardon the Interruption.  I am of two minds on that idea:

1. The first is to apply the old adage of “If it ain’t broke …”  Pardon the Interruption has been a great program for about 25 years now.  It found a way to exist in a very tricky environment where the two hosts gave the program a steady and constant feel – – and yet when they needed to substitute for one or both hosts, the program worked just fine.  So, is it a given that the program can expand seamlessly from 30 minutes to an hour?
2. The second is to recognize what ESPN programming has become in the afternoon and early evening.  That programming has devolved into a bunch of studio shows that present either “hot takes” or “Banalities-R-Us”.  If the programming mavens are going to fill that empty time slot with another show of either ilk, then an extra half-hour of “Tony and Mike” has to be a better option.

Moving on …  There is a report on CBSSports.com that says the LA Dodgers now owe a “luxury tax” payment of $103M and that a bunch of other teams have smaller payments due in January.  The total “luxury tax” payments from nine MLB clubs will be $311.3M.

The “luxury tax” is imposed with the intention of penalizing the “big market/high revenue clubs” from spending the “little guys” into non-competitive positions.  Clearly, it does not work; but it is the best system that MLB and the MLBPA have been able to come up with in their collective bargaining sessions.  The “luxury tax” is distributed to the “small market/lower revenue teams” with the idea that those clubs can use luxury tax payments from the “rich guys” as a basis to bid for star players.  Clearly, that is not working either.

If you want to know how the tax is calculated, here is a link to a page at mlb.com that will provide you with more information than you would want to know.

Before signing off today, I don’t know my writing and posting schedule for this Holiday week except that I plan to do a Football Friday at the end of the week.  In case I am not back on the air tomorrow or Wednesday, let me wish everyone a Merry Christmas and thanks for reading and commenting here.  Stay safe and stay well, everyone.

Finally, I’ll close today with these words from Rickey Henderson:

“Once you can accept failure, you can have fun and success.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Don Rickles said:

“I like to think I’m like the guy who goes to the office Christmas party Friday night, insults some people, but still has his job Monday morning.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to think I am the guy who produces Football Fridays and still has a readership left on Monday morning.  It’s tough job [not really] and someone has to do it [again, not really].  So, on with the show …

Here is a quick review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spread and Total wagers were 2-2-0 – – Meh!
• Money Line Parlays were 1-2 for a “Loss” of $57 – – Not good!

Undaunted, I press on…

 

College Football Commentary

 

            The Heisman Award went to Travis Hunter this year.  I am glad it did not go to one of the QBs on the ballot because I think both Hunter and Ashton Jeanty were better college football players in 2024 than any of the college QBs in this year’s crop.  Congratulations to Travis Hunter – – and I wonder where the NFL team that drafts him will choose to play him on Sunday afternoons.

I don’t know whether to be happy or outraged by the news that Marshall University chose to pull out of its bowl game against Army because more than two dozen of its players chose to enter the transfer portal and would not have played in that bowl game to avoid injury.

• On one hand, it has been clear for many years that there are too many minor bowl games and perhaps this is a signal to call some of them off – – permanently.
• On another hand, this entire scheduling fiasco is an unintended consequence of unregulated NIL money along with the universal presence of the transfer portal.

None of the advocates for “pay the college athletes” and/or “free movement for college athletes” envisioned this as one of the outcomes.  Those advocates thought they had “the answers”; where are they now with more “answers”?

Speaking of college football bowl games, there has been a shift in bowl names over the years.  Long ago, bowl games were named after plants – – or plant products – – grown in warm weather such as:

• Cactus Bowl
• Camillia Bowl
• Citrus Bowl
• Cotton Bowl
• Orange Bowl
• Peach Bowl
• Poinsettia Bowl
• Rose Bowl
• Sugar Bowl

Currently, the trend seems to be to name bowl games after people in uniform or the objectives of people in uniform:

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
• Go Bowling Military Bowl
• Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
• Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
• Salute to Veterans Bowl
• ServPro First Responder Bowl
• Valero Alamo Bowl

One of the lyrics in the old Bob Dylan song goes like this:

“Come mothers and fathers throughout the land
And don’t criticize what you can’t understand.
Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly agin’.  Please get out of the new one
If you can’t lend your hand for the times, they are a-changin’ “

Another college football example of changing times happened last week.  Starting in 2025, the Ivy League will take part in the Division 1-AA football playoffs.  The Ivy League has been in existence for 70 years now and has over that time period refused any sort of participation in bowl games or playoff structures when it comes to football.  The Ivies do participate in other collegiate championships – – March Madness being the most obvious example – – but football outside of the regular season was never seriously considered “proper”.

One of the consequences of this decision to participate in next year’s football championship tournament is that the league will need to develop tie-breakers for the league.  For the last 70 years, if two or more teams had the same record against Ivy League opponents, the League simply named them as co-champions.  This year, there was a three-way tie at the top of the league:

• Dartmouth was 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games
• Harvard was 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games
• Columbia was 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games

 

CFP Games This Week

 

Think about the old saying, “Defense wins championships,” while you ponder this stat for the 2024 college football regular season.

• There are twelve teams in the field.
• Seven of the twelve teams are ranked in the Top Ten in Total Defense for the year.
  • • Ohio St. – – ranked #1
    • Indiana – – ranked #2
    • Texas – – ranked #3
    • Tennessee – – ranked #4
    • Penn St. – – ranked #6
    • Notre Dame – – ranked #9
    • Oregon – – ranked #10

Interestingly, Georgia is a team known for its defensive prowess under Kriby Smart ranks down at #35 in the country in Total Defense.  By comparison, the Bulldogs give up 95 more yards per game than top-ranked Ohio St.  Now you know …

(Fri Nite) Indiana at Notre Dame – 7 (52.5):  The in-state distance between these two schools is only about 200 miles but they have not met on a football field for the last 33 years; the last time Indiana beat Notre Dame in football was all the way back in the 1950 season.  This year, Indiana ranked first in the nation in scoring differential (28.7 points per game) and Notre Dame ranked second in the nation in scoring differential (26.1 points per game).  Neither team played a difficult schedule so this game could play out in a myriad of ways.  One thing is for sure; Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman will be back as the head coach of the Irish next year; he just signed a long-term extension.  The Irish have lost their last 10 bowl games in a row; the oddsmakers have them installed as a solid favorite here at minus-290 on the Money Line.  People have questioned Indiana’s “worthiness” for CFP participation because of their soft schedule; here is a chance for the Hoosiers to demonstrate their “worthiness”.  I like the game to stay UNDER because I think the two highly regarded defenses in the game will dominate the play; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

SMU at Penn St. – 8 (54):  Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions exploded for more than 500 yards of offense against Oregon in the Big-10 Championship Game; Oregon has a Top-Ten defense and SMU does not.  Where SMU has is an edge is in team speed.  I think the Penn St. defense can keep SMU from running wild, so I’ll take the Nittany Lions at home to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Clemson at Texas – 12.5 (51.5):  I think Clemson is overmatched here; simply put, playing an ACC schedule in 2024 is not the same thing as playing an SEC schedule in 2024 even when you consider that Texas did not have to face the top SEC teams week after week.  Having said that, I think that line is fat; give me Clemson plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  Now for those Clemson fans who think I am being harsh in calling the Tigers “overmatched”, let me refer you to the Money Line this morning where Clemson can be had at odds of +360.

Tennessee at Ohio St. – 7.5 (46):  I think this is the best game of the first round in the CFP this year.  Presumably, the Vols’ defensive coaches and players took notes while watching what Michigan’s defense did to the Buckeyes.  Tennessee has plenty of defensive talent and should keep this game close all day long.  I think the key to the game is Tennessee RB, Dylan Simpson; if he can grind out offense and keep the clock moving, this could go down to the wire.  The Vols are at +240 on the Money Line which is tempting, but I shall resist.  I will take Tennessee plus the points in the game, however; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

I have said here before that I will not be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers drag out his “decision” regarding his “play or retire” decision for 2025 along with any “decision” related to his remaining with the NY Jets in 2025.  The latest pronouncement from Rodgers is that he is “open to everything”.  I think that story has gotten sufficient attention and so I want to pose a rhetorical question here:

• Regardless of Rodgers’ decision to play or not play for the Jets next year, the Jets will need to acquire another QB in the near future to lead the team.
• At the same time, the Jets also need to hire a new GM and a new head coach because both positions have been vacated in the middle of the 2024 season.
• So, which is the more important hiring decision – – a new GM or a new QB?

I pose that question fully recognizing that the QB is the pivotal figure for most NFL teams.  Not meaning to contradict that logic, the Jets as a franchise have been ”at sea” (to be polite) for at least a decade now primarily because of poor roster construction.  To make that point, since the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jets have had 7 first round picks:

• Zack Wilson, QB
• Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG
• Sauce Gardner, DB
• Garrett Wilson, WR
• Jermaine Johnson, DE
• Will McDonald IV, DE
• Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT

By my eyeball test, there are two bona fide “anywhere in the NFL starters” on that list; two out of seven is less than 30%; when your first round pick “success rate” is less than 30%, perhaps there is a problem beyond the lack of a star QB.

Along similar lines, one of the narratives for this NFL season has been the confluence of the Dallas Cowboys underachieving expectations along with the fact that coach Mike McCarthy’s contract is up at the end of this season.  Lots of commentators have simply assumed that McCarthy will not be back on the sidelines for the Cowboys next year.  But let me ask if you think he deserves to be fired.  The Cowboys’ failures seem to me to rest on three pillars:

1. Their starting QB suffered a season-ending injury; the backup QB has played “uninspiringly”.
2. Their defense gives up over 27 points per game because it gets pushed around.
3. Their running game is anemic; it ranks 27^th in the league as of today.

I submit that the Cowboys’ underachievement is partly based on unrealistically high expectations in the first place and on poor roster construction once again.  The issue for Cowboys’ fans is that the “roster constructor” is the team owner and the team owner has not even hinted that he might relinquish any of those roster construction duties to someone else.

The Lions have a record of 12-2-0 as of this morning.  The Lions lead the NFL in points scored (459 points in 14 games = 32.8 points per game).  The Lions’ defense was very stingy early in the season but not so much recently.  In their last 3 games, the Lions have given up 99 points (33 points per game).  The reason is pretty simple – – injuries to starters on defense.  Every team has injuries, but it seems as if Lions’ defenders have been targeted by the football gods.  Here is a partial list of quality defenders on IR for the Lions:

• Alex Anzalone  LB
• Carlton Davis  DB
• Khalil Dorsey  DB
• Aiden Hutchinson  DE
• Alim McNeil  DT
• Malcom Rodriguez  LB

The Tampa Bay Bucs have quietly asserted themselves with a 4-game winning streak that allowed them to overtake the Falcons for the lead in the NFC South and the Bucs have done it with offense.  Baker Mayfield and company have scored 124 points in those 4 consecutive wins (31 points per game).  The Bucs have a one-game lead in the division and the remaining schedule is not a killer; none of the final three opponents has even a .500 record in 2024:

• Cowboys are 6-8-0
• Panthers are 3-11-0
• Saints are 5-9-0

Winning the division – – and thereby making the playoffs – – is totally in the hands of the Bucs; if they take care of business against those three teams with losing records, they will be in the playoffs.

Now before you shrug your shoulders and wave the Bucs off as a stepping stone for some other NFC team on the way to the Super Bowl, please consider this:

• The Bucs have beaten both the Eagles and the Lions this year.  They beat the Eagles by 17 points and the Lions by 4 points back in September.
• The Bucs lost to the Chiefs – – but took the Chiefs to OT in early November.
• Do not sleep on the Bucs.

The Browns announced this week that they will bench Jameis Winston at QB and replace him with Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  This may look like “tanking”, but I will try to suggest here that this move makes sense for the Browns’ franchise.  It begins with this mastery of the obvious statement:

• The Browns’ record of 3-11-0 guarantees that the players and coaches will taking Caribbean cruises with their families in January in lieu of prepping for a playoff game.

The Browns have a “QB Situation” that has defied resolution for some time now:

• They have an injured Deshaun Watson who is signed through the end of the 2026 season.
• They have Jameis Winston who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season – – and they pretty much know what they have in Winston.  This is his 9^th season in the NFL; there aren’t a lot of mysteries associated with Jameis Winston.
• They have Dorian Thompson-Robinson on a rookie contract that runs through the end of the 2026 season.

I will go out on a limb here and say that the Browns are not going to extend Deshaun Watson’s contract and that they would like to know how Thompson-Robinson has progressed in this his second season in the NFL.  That assessment could clarify for the Browns’ brass how aggressively they attack the QB market in the offseason and/or in the 2025 NFL draft.  Watching Thompson-Robinson in practice is one thing but it does not replace seeing him play against real NFL defenders going at full speed.  The last three games for the Browns are against the Bengals, Dolphins and Ravens; maybe the Ravens will have “something to play for” in Week 18 but the other two games are meaningless contests.  So, taking advantage of misfortune seems to make sense here; find out if the kid can play or not.

Here are some comments on some of last week’s games.

Commanders 20  Saints 19:   Jayden Daniels was sacked 8 times by Saints and the Commanders still won the game.  That does not happen often   Jake Haener quickly proved he wasn’t the answer for the Saints at quarterback, but the Saints scrambled back with Spencer Rattler at the helm.

Chiefs 21  Browns 7:  The Browns turned the ball over six times and did not snap the ball at all in the red zone.  Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury x-rays were negative; the official pronouncement was a high ankle sprain.  He practiced on Wednesday of this week and is listed as “Questionable” for this week’s game.

Texans 20  Dolphins 12:    The Texans did not gain 200 yards on offense but won the game because the Dolphins turned the ball over 4 times – – three of which were INTs thrown by Tua Tagovailoa.

Eagles 27  Steelers 13: This game was not nearly as close as the score indicates.  The Eagles outgained the Steelers by 238 yards and racked up 26 first downs to the Steelers’ 10.

Bucs 40  Chargers 17:  The Chargers led this game 17-10 at one point; then the Bucs scored the last 30 points in a row. Baker Mayfield was 22 for 27 with four TDs.   The Chargers’ record is now 8-6-0 and this loss makes them the seventh seed in the projected AFC playoffs. The most surprising stat to me is that a Jim Harbaugh coached team was outgained on the ground here 223 yards to 32 yards.

Ravens 35  Giants 14:   The Giant’s defense could not get off the field efficiently in the game; the Ravens converted 9 of 11 third down situations.   By comparison, the Giants converted only 2 of 12 third down opportunities.  The Giants have lost 9 in a row; that ties a franchise record for a franchise that dates back to1925.  Tommy DeVito started for the Giants, Tim Boyle finished up when DeVito suffered a concussion.

Falcons 15  Raiders 9:   The Raiders’ special teams got two punts blocked, an extra point blocked, and fair caught a punt at the 3-yard line – – all in one game.  Raiders’ coach, Antonio Pierce was not pleased; asked about his team’s special teams miscues after the game, Pierce acknowledged they were “ugly”.

 

Games This week:

 

Last night’s game between the Chargers and the Broncos was a tale of two halves.  In the first half, the Broncos dominated the stat sheet, the eyeball test and the scoreboard; the halftime score had the Broncos up by 8 points, but no one would have believed the score was that close.  Then things changed on a dime; the second half was dominated by the Chargers who took the lead and never relinquished it running away with a 34-27 win.

Both teams are still in good position to make the playoffs in the AFC.  For either team to miss this year’s playoffs, they would have to lose their two remaining games and one or more of the Dolphins, Bengals or Colts would have to win out.  Strange things happen every week in the NFL but the scenarios I just described go beyond “strange”.

(Sat Early PM) Texans at Chiefs – 3.5 (42):  With two division leaders going at it, this game got serious consideration as the Game of the Week. Can Patrick Mahomes play this week?  Not knowing if he can makes this game a pass for me.  The line seems to indicate to me that most folks think he will sit it out and let Carson Wentz take the field.  Andy Reid says Mahomes “will most likely end up playing.”

(Sat Late PM) Steelers at Ravens – 6.5 (44.5):  If the Ravens win, they will tie the Steelers at 10-5-0 on top of the AFC North; if the Steelers win, they will be assured of the division championship because they will own the tiebreaker with the Ravens.  Other than that, just an ordinary game on the schedule.  The status of TJ Watt’s availability for the Steelers is important here and the spread seems to suggest that he will not play – – or not play at nearly full strength.  Watt says he is “hopeful” that he can play.

Browns at Bengals – 9 (47):  The spread opened the week at 6 points; the jump up to this level seems related to the announcement that Dorian Thompson-Robinson would be the Browns QB this week (see above).  The Bengals are still alive mathematically for the playoffs but will be eliminated with a loss here.  The Bengals are winning because their offense has been scoring points recently; the Bengals’ defense is a sieve – – and maybe that is another reason why the Browns picked this game to see what Thompson-Robinson can do…?

Lions – 6.5 at Bears (48): The Bears have lost 8 games in a row ever since giving up the Hail Mary TD to the Commanders a couple of months ago.  That losing streak has gone under the radar because of the Giants’ losing streak at franchise record levels and the Raiders’ record of 10 losses in a row.  As noted above, the Lions are forced to play their JV on defense here.  This will be only the second “outdoor game” for the Lions this year and the weather in Chicago is forecast to be about 30 degrees with winds at 14 mph.  The Bears are only at +235 on the Money Line which is a surprise given the records of the two teams.

Cards – 4 at Panthers (47.5):  This line for the spread is all over the place.  I found it as low as 3 points and as high as 5 points; if you like this game, be advised to shop around for the line.  The Total Line is far more consistent, varying by only a half point at all the books I check.  I think this is going to be a defensive game; neither offense seems scary to me.  So, I’ll take the game to stay UNDER the total here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Pats at Bills – 14 (47):  This is a squash game; the Bills are hitting on all cylinders and the Pats are not playing well at all.  Here is how the oddsmakers view the outcome of this game:

• Pats on the Money Line = +700
• Bills on the Money Line = minus-1100

For reasons I do not understand, the local CBS affiliate chose this game as the one to air in the late Sunday afternoon time slot.  I guess that means they could not get the rights to a couple of reruns from My Mother the Car.

Eagles – 3.5 at Commanders (45.5):  This too got a passing thought as the Game of the Week.  The Total Line for this game opened at 48 points and has been dropping during the week.  No, I don’t know why.  If the Eagles win, they are NFC East champs; if the Commanders win, they can still win the division theoretically.  A loss for the Commanders (that would be their sixth) would bring the Rams and/or the Seahawks into contention for what is now the Commanders’ playoff position.  I am tempted to take the Commanders plus the points here but will resist.

• Get thee behind me, Satan.

Giants at Falcons – 8.5 (41.5):  The Falcons beat the Raiders last week and they get the Giants this week.  What’s next, a game against the JV team from an Ivy League also-ran?  The Falcons can still make the playoffs but really need to win out.  I think they will dominate here; I think Michael Penix will show very well against that defense; give me the Falcons to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans at Colts – 3.5 (42.5):  Even at 6-8-0, the Colts can still make the playoffs; not so for the Titans.  For now, the Colts, Bengals and Dolphins have the same record; I believe a loss for any of them eliminates them from any hope of sneaking in.

Rams – 3 at Jets (46):  The Rams have looked really good the last several weeks; the Jets have played better in their last two games.  The Rams need the game; they are tied with the Seahawks at the top of the NFC West and the two teams still have a head-to-head matchup on the schedule.  The Jets are going nowhere so this is a “pride game” for them.  At the same time, this is a “body clock game” for the Rams playing in the early afternoon time slot 3 time zones east of home.

Vikes – 3 at Seahawks (42.5):  I anoint this as the Game of the Week because of its playoff implications and the questions surrounding the game.  The Vikes are 12-2-0 – – the same record as the Lions and the Eagles in the NFC.  The Seahawks are tied with the Rams for the lead in the NFC West.  The five games involving those five teams this week are all pivotal, but this one could see the Vikes slip into the lead for the NFC playoff BYE Week.  And with all that stuff to consider here is something else;

• Geno Smith has a sprained ankle.
• Can he play at all?  If so, how limited might he be?
• If he can’t go, can backup Sam Howell deal with the swarming Vikes’ defense?

I think the Vikes are primed for a big game here even on the road and I don’t like the Seahawks’ chances with either a hobbled Smith or a healthy Howell; I’ll take the Vikes and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Niners at Dolphins – 1 (45):  Both teams have underachieved expectations for 2024; neither team is playing particularly well now.  Betting on this game is akin to buying a scratch-off lottery ticket.

Jags at Raiders – 2 (40):  I called this the Dog-Breath Game of the Week last week.  I neither know who will win this game nor do I care; these teams are awful.  Their combined record as of the kickoff is 5-23-0.  Oh joy …!

(Sun Nite) Bucs – 4 at Cowboys (48):  The Cowboys record at home this year is 1-6-0; that lone win was over the Giants so maybe it shouldn’t even count.  The Cowboys defense looked good last week against the Panthers but as noted above the Bucs’ offense has been en fuego recently.

(Mon Nite) Saints at Packers – 14 (42):  This is another squash game.  The Saints are playing hard under interim head coach, Darren Rizzi, but that will not be nearly enough to stay with the Packers.  Hopefully, the Saints saw enough of Jake Haener last week; and hopefully, they will not need to turn to him save for garbage time minutes this week.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle” for this week:

• Indiana/Notre Dame UNDER 52.5
• Penn St. – 8 over SMU
• Clemson +12.5 against Texas
• Tennessee + 7.5 against Ohio St.
• Cards/Panthers UNDER 47.5
• Vikes – 3 over Seahawks
• Falcons – 8.5 over Giants

And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays for this week:

• Falcons @ minis-430
• Vikes @ minus-150
• Bucs @ minus-200     $100 wager to win $208

And …

• Bengals @ minus-420
• Falcons @-430
• Vikes @ minus-150     $100 wager to win $154

And …

• Commanders @ +165
• Bucs @ minus-200     $100 wager to win $298

Finally, words from Vince Lombardi:

“Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

During last year’s NFL offseason, both Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson were free agents whose reputations were “tarnished” at best.  Darnold was seen as a classical underachiever who had been taken in the Top-5 of his draft class and who never played as if he was worth that status.  Wilson was thought to be on the downward arc of his career – – if not washed up.  Both QBs proved the skeptics wrong.

Sam Darnold has led the Vikes to a 12-2-0 record equaling the Lions’ record for the lead in the NFC North Division.  The Vikes average 26.4 points per game this year; in 14 games to date in 2024, Darnold has already thrown for 500 more yards than he has ever posted in a full season previously.  Darnold is 27 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent once again at the end of this season.

Russell Wilson did not start the season at QB for the Steelers due to injury, but he has been the starter for the last 8 Steelers’ games and the team has gone 6-2-0 under his leadership.  So far in 2024, Wilson has thrown 13 TD passes and only 3 INTs.  Wilson is 36 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent once again at the end of this season.

One might think that the Vikes and Steelers would be scurrying around already making overtures to the agents for those two QBs, but each team has a wrinkle to iron out:

• The Vikes drafted JJ McCarthy in the first round of the Draft last April.  McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury at the end of training camp which led to Sam Darnold becoming the starter in Minnesota.  All indications are that McCarthy will be fully recovered for next year – – so what will the Vikes commit themselves to in signing Darnold once again?
• The Steelers’ situation is even more intriguing.  In addition to Wilson’s expiring contract this year, the Steelers acquired Justin Fields last Spring and like Wilson and Darnold, Justin Fields will be an unrestricted free agent once this NFL season comes to a close.  Fields started the season for the Steelers while Wilson was on the shelf and the Steelers were 4-2-0 with Fields under center.  So, what might the Steelers be doing with their two quarterbacking possibilities?

It seems to me that the Vikes can try to resign Darnold fairly aggressively since McCarthy is on a rookie contract allowing the team to have two players at the position without overloading the cap at the QB position.  McCarthy is not eligible to shop around and find himself a “better deal” so the Vikes can negotiate with Darnold knowing what their “other guy” is going to cost them in 2025 and beyond.

The Steelers are not nearly in such a position of certainty because both QBs will be able to have their agents “shop around” in an attempt to create a marketplace for the QB talents and maybe even a “bidding war”.  If it appears that both QBs are looking at getting contracts where the sum of the two is too rich for the Steelers’ cap space, the team will have to make an early decision regarding which QB to cast their lot with.

At least one of these three QBs is likely to be playing elsewhere next year – – and potentially all three of them.  Given the success all three of them had in 2024 – – far beyond what had been projected for them in 2024 – – some other teams in the league may be very interested acquiring their services for 2025 and beyond.

And just in case you think those three QBs will monopolize the spotlight in the NFL offseason, do not forget that Brock Purdy’s rookie contract is over at the end of this season too.  Purdy has been far more successful early in his career than either Darnold or Fields.  He is young (25 years old) with a record of 23-11-0 as a starting QB.  Nonetheless, there are some who call him a “system QB” – – a guy who is successful because of the offensive system he plays in rather than a guy who can be successful because of his talents in just about any competent system.  How do the Niners see Purdy as a QB going forward?  The answer to that question will become more apparent once the Niners’ season is over.

There are plenty of QB-needy teams in the NFL – – I count six of them – – and if the Steelers were to lose out on signing both Wilson and Fields in this offseason, the Steelers would quickly join that QB-needy list.  Last year’s draft class had lots of hot QB prospects; frankly, I think this year’s draft class is very thin at the QB position and if the majority of NFL scouts hold the same view, this year’s competition might be for the four QBs discussed here based on 2024 performance.

This offseason might be entertaining indeed.

Moving on – – but sticking with NFL QBs …  The Falcons announced that Michael Penix, Jr. will start this week against the woebegone NY Giants and Kirk Cousins will watch from the sidelines.  We could debate that move and wonder about its implications, but rather than that I think there is an interesting side light to that move:

• When it was assumed that Cousins would still be the QB for the Falcons, the line for the game was Atlanta – 9.
• Now that Penix is known to be the QB for the Falcons, the line for the game is Atlanta – 9.
• The oddsmakers and the betting public have not moved the line at all.  Will that stability last until game time?
• What about the Total Line?  Before the announcement of the change, the Total Line was 41.5 points; now about 48 hours after the announcement of the change, the Total Line is 40.5 points.  Not much of a movement there either.

Finally, a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Precious:  Code word meaning ‘intolerable’.  Used when referring to such things as a small child’s attempt at ballet or any human-interest story airing on National Public Radio.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NBA in-season tournament for the NBA Cup is in the books.  The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder last night to win the cup; Giannis Antetokounmpo was voted the MVP of the tournament.  And don’t you feel better now that you know that?

And that is not the only inane news from the NBA this morning.  Commissioner Adam Silver announced yet another “new format” for the NBA All-Star Game.  The simple fact that the game has required “reinvention” several times over the past decade or so ought to indicate to any “critical thinker” that the exhibition itself is the problem.  But the Commish continues to tinker around the edges to make the game anything more than “not unpalatable” to a TV audience.

The fundamental problem with the game is simple:

• The players do not care about it; they do not play hard, and it is obvious to anyone watching it.
• The players cannot be “incentivized” to care about it; they are rich enough.

Just to give you an example, here are some stats from last year’s NBA All-Star Game:

• East 211   West 186
• The two teams combined to attempt 168 three-point shots (approximately one attempt per 17 seconds of game time)
• The two teams combined to commit a total of 3 personal fouls in the game.

And now, Adam Silver has another idea to inject interest into this muck and mire.  The solution is to expand the event thereby diluting whatever marginal interest there might be.  Here’s the deal:

• There will be a one-night tournament involving four teams and three games.
• Instead of 48-minute regulation NBA games, these All-Star tournament games will be decided on the basis of which team posts 40 points first.  [Aside:  At least there won’t be another game with 200+ points by one team to endure.]
• Three of the four teams will consist of 8 NBA players selected for the All-Star team.
• The fourth team will be the winning team from the “Rising Stars Game” which will continue to exist, and which will pit NBA rookies against second-year NBA players.

Fans will vote for NBA All-Stars and coaches will fill out the 24-players needed for the three All-Star teams in the tournament.  The individual teams will be selected/drafted by NBA studio analysts, Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith.  Candace Parker will serve as the “GM” of the fourth team of either rookies or second-year players.

You can stand back and assess this new thinking in several ways:

1. This is bold, new thinking about the game demonstrating that the NBA is committed to finding a way to make its All-Star Game into something fans want to see.
2. This is another example of the NBA grasping at straws to save this annual event from further embarrassment.
3. Why is this interesting?  I permanently lost interest in the NBA All-Star Game about 20 years ago.

There are a couple other ways to react to this news which are less polite:

1. You can put lipstick on a pig – – but it is still a pig.
2. You can polish a turd – – but the shine doesn’t last long.

Moving on …  There was another “announcement” recently in the sports world that seems to have flown under the radar.  In 2028, one of the new sports in the Summer Olympics will be Flag Football.  The NFL has used Flag Football for its Pro Bowl Game; the new format is not great, but it is better than what the Pro Bowl had devolved into with little to no contact in the game.  The announcement that drew little attention said that the NFL and the NFLPA and the Olympic organizers are “working on the logistics” to enable NFL players to participate.  Is that a “good thing” or not?

Finally, the fundamental problem with the NBA All-Star Game and the Pro Bowl is the lack of any defense played by the teams.  John Madden had a great observation about defense in football that will serve as today’s closing remark:

“If you see a defense team with dirt and mud on their backs, they’ve had a bad day.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There have been lots of rumblings that the Atlanta Falcons were going to bench Kirk Cousins in favor of Michael Penix, Jr. since the Falcons had lost four games in a row entering last night’s game against the less-than-formidable Raiders.  Not so; Kirk Cousins started the game and finished the game, and the Falcons won a slog of a game by the score of 15-9.  No, this was not a titanic defensive struggle; this game was a demonstration of offensive ineptitude.

However, the Falcons won the game and advanced their record to 7-7-0 positioning them one game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South race and two games behind the Commanders for the final playoff slot in the NFC.  That positioning vis-à-vis the Commanders is important because the Falcons and Commanders will meet in Week 17 of this season.  That game could have significant playoff consequences – – if the Falcons now go on a winning streak.

So, the Falcons’ coaches are highly motivated to put the best squad on the field in order to try to “win out”.  The fact that they went with Cousins last night and stuck with him despite the anemic offensive showing tells me that the Falcons’ coaching staff believes that Cousins is the better QB in December 2024.  Those coaches see both guys every day in practice; those guys get paid in part for their ability to spot talent and then exploit it.  Those guys also know very clearly that their jobs and their reputations depend on the outcomes of their decisions in terms of wins and losses and playoff appearances.  The Falcons’ coaches saw Cousins perform in a significant performance trough for four weeks – – and they still went with him and not Penix.

After the game, Falcons head coach, Raheem Morris was asked what he thought of Cousins’ performance.  His answer was vintage coach-speak; he left each and every path forward open:

“He’s got to play better, and, you know, obviously, you’ve got to go back, you’ve got to be able to look at everything. But, you know, he wants to play better. He’s got to play better. We’ve got to find a way to get him to play better. And, obviously, we’ll get to work tomorrow, and that’s part of our process, right? You go and look at the tape, you review with the people it needs to be reviewed with, you know, we get all the coordinators in the room, we’ll talk with everybody, and we’ve got to play better at the quarterback position.”

If I were a sadistic high school English teacher, I would make you parse that paragraph, but we are not into sadism here in Curmudgeon Central.  So, let me just leave the QB situation in Atlanta with this assessment:

• Cousins was the choice last night and the Falcons won.  Having said that, the commentary from the head coach after the game allows for – – and even invites – – more rumblings and rumors about the QB position going forward.
• By the way, the Falcons game next week is against an opponent even more woebegone than the Raiders – – the NY Giants who are 2-12-0 for the year and who have lost 9 games in a row.

Moving on – – and staying on the subject of which QB should start for a team – – let me say something that will sound outrageous at first until you read why I said it:

• I hope that Patrick Mahomes will be unable to play QB for the Chiefs next week against the Texans.

I am not rooting against the Chiefs or for the Texans with that statement.  I am not hating on Patrick Mahomes.  Here is why I think that would be an interesting happenstance:

• The Chiefs’ backup QB is Carson Wentz.  His career started off on a rocket-like trajectory and has since crumbled not quite to dust but certainly to cinders.
• With most of a season under Andy Reid’s system in KC and now with a week’s worth of practice with the first-string players, I would want to see Wentz perform in something other than “mop-up duty”.
• Can Andy Reid and his “KC-Offense” squeeze competency out of Carson Wentz in 2024?
• The Chiefs are already guaranteed to be in the playoffs so this “side quest” for the team would be interesting to observe.

Switching gears …  The Chiefs are in the AFC playoffs this year but at the other end of the AFC spectrum, you can see the New England Patriots with a 3-11-0 record.  That is pretty miserable; and if you are a Pats’ fan, you might not be thrilled to see the remaining schedule for your heroes:

• 12/22/24:  At the Bills
• 12/29/24:  Vs. the Chargers
• 1/5/25:  Vs. the Bills again

Maybe in that final game of the season, the Bills will be starting Mitchell Trubisky at QB to give Josh Allen a rest?  That is the only bright spot I see …

Finally, here is a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Juice:  Something children won’t drink unless it comes in a square box with its own straw; something adults won’t drink unless it costs as much as their mocha latte and has been repackaged by corporate spin to include pomegranate, spirulina, and antioxidants.  Like anybody knows what antioxidants are anyway.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Jim Tunney died over the weekend at the age of 95.  He was a referee in the NFL from 1960 to 1990; he was an official just as the NFL was beginning to become a top TV attraction.  Tunney officiated three Super Bowl games – – Super Bowl VI, XI and XII.

Rest in peace, Jim Tunney.

I mentioned last week that LB, De’Vondre Campbell had refused to go into a game for the Niners and instead went to the locker room.  A friend sent an email comparing that situation to Antonio Brown who behaved similarly except that Brown made a show of his “retreat to the locker room” by removing his pads and walking slowly off the field without half of his uniform.  My friend’s point was that Brown never got “another chance” with an NFL team and since Brown was more of a standout at his position than Campbell is at his position, it might be very difficult for De’Vondre Campbell to find future NFL employment.

I think my friend is correct; Campbell is 31 years old, and this is his 9^th season as a linebacker in the league.  He was voted as an All-Pro in 2021 but over those 9 seasons he has only recorded 9.5 sacks.  Until last week, he was rather durable for a linebacker playing in 13 or more games in 6 of his 9 seasons.  As a defender you could describe him as “solid” and “productive”, but I doubt if you would climb to the level of “outstanding” or “great”.  And I think a player would have to be considered at least “outstanding” to be considered by another team after what has been described as Campbell’s behavior last Thursday night.

Google is really amazing.  In the recesses of my memory, I thought there had been another player who “retired” at halftime and just rode off into the sunset – – but I could not put a name or a situation to that memory.  So, I entered into Google:

• “NFL player retires halftime”

Indeed, my dim memory was correct; it happened.  In 2018, Vontae Davis was a CB with the Bills; he had signed a 1-year deal with the team in the offseason.  After giving up a TD pass in the first half of a game that season, Davis took himself out of the game, told coach Sean McDermott that he was “done” and then just disappeared from football.  Davis never tried to come back to the NFL and there is no indication that any teams reached out to him about a return.  So, there is another incident where a player left the game in medias res never to see the field again.  I suspect De’Vondre Campbell’s NFL career has come to a conclusion.

Moving on – – but staying on the general topic of “withdrawing” …  The Independence Bowl game was scheduled to be Marshall University versus Army.  The NCAA transfer portal managed to attract at least 25 players from the Marshall roster and those players were not going to play in that minor bowl game and risk injury there which would negatively impact on their attractiveness in that portal.  No problem, all the bowl organizers have to do is to invite another team and stage the game.  Except there is one little glitch; when Marshall recused itself from the game, there were no other “six-win teams” – – i.e. bowl eligible teams – – waiting for an invitation to the game.

So, the NCAA got to dig into its arcane rulebook to identify the team that had won 5 games in the season and among all the “5-win teams” it had the best record of having team members make academic progress toward a degree from the school.  Yes, the fantasy of the “student-athlete” lives on in 2024 alongside all the NIL money and the transfer portal which translates into universal free agency among players.

The replacement for Marshall will be La-Tech which finished the season with a 5-7 record.  It is good to know that the players on that team are making academic progress toward their degrees because the La-Tech schedule from last year is unimpressive at best.

• La Tech finished 4-4 in CUSA games.  The fifth win was against a Division 1-AA opponent.
• La Tech played 5 games against teams that were on my SHOE watch list at some point last season.  Their record in those 5 games was 3-2.
• Unimpressive …

Finally, for no obvious reason, I want to close today with this pronouncement from Sigmund Freud:

“The first human who hurled an insult instead of a stone was the founder of civilization.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Country music performer, Garth Brooks said:

“That smell of freshly cut grass makes me think of Friday night football in high school. The smell of popcorn and cigar smoke reminds me of the stadium.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central all I need is to check the calendar to make me think of Friday and the need to create another Football Friday, and so as Jackie Gleason would say, “And away we go…”

I shall begin with last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College spreads and totals were 3-0 – – Excellent!
• College Money Line Parlays were 2-0 for “Profit” of $575 – – Excellent!
• NFL spreads and totals were 1-1 – – Not good!
• NFL Money Line Parlays were 0-2 for “Loss” of $200 – – Bad!

The Linfield University Wildcats saw their season come to an end last week when they lost their Division III Playoff Game to Mary Hardin-Baylor by a score of 18-13.  Linfield finished the season with a 10-2 record and were undefeated in their Northwest Conference games.  Until next season …

 

College Football Commentary

 

You may recall that when Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to take the head coaching job at LSU, he said that he wanted a chance to win the national championship and that he might get to do that at LSU but not at Notre Dame.  Don’t look now but Notre Dame is in the CFP and LSU will be taking on Baylor on New Year’s Eve in something called the “Kinder’s Texas Bowl”.

And speaking of random bowl games, let me make a couple of comments about some of the minor ones:

• Salute to Veterans Bowl:  W. Michigan plays South Alabama.  Both teams are 6-6 this year meaning one of these bowl participants will end the year with a losing record.  Quite the Salute to Veterans …
• Boca Raton Bowl:  James Madison versus W. Kentucky.  These are both Sun Belt Conference teams [Yawn!] – – but at least they both have winning records…
• Cure Bowl:  Ohio takes on Jacksonville State; it’s the MAC versus CUSA.  Just what is that supposed to “Cure” … ?
• Myrtle Beach Bowl:  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers versus UTSA Roadrunners.  This should be the Avian Bowl, right …?
• Famous Idaho Potato bowl:  Northern Illinois Huskies play the Fresno State Bulldogs.  This should be the Canine Bowl, right … ?
• GameAbove Sports Bowl:  Pitt takes on Toledo from the MAC.  Pitt arrives at the game having lost 5 games in a row.
• First Responder Bowl:  North Texas versus Texas State.   Why isn’t this game being played in Texas?

And here are a couple of the bowl games not involved in the CFP that should be worth the trouble to tune in for:

• Birmingham Bowl 12/27/24:  Vandy versus Georgia Tech.  Both teams were surprisingly good in 2024.
• PopTarts Bowl 12/28/24:  Miami versus Iowa State.  Both teams had realistic shots at the CFP; this could be a very good game.
• Alamo Bowl 12/28/24:  Colorado versus BYU.  Both teams are in the Big 12 and both finished the season with winning records.
• ReliaQuest Bowl 12/31/24:  Michigan versus Alabama.  ‘Nuff said.

A couple of weeks ago, I touted RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.) here and suggested you check him out.  He is a Heisman finalist this year and has a realistic shot at breaking the college record for yards gained rushing in a season held by a guy you have probably heard of – – Barry Sanders.  I stand by my recommendation to watch Jeanty play and by my assessment that he is a significant talent.  Jeanty will next be on TV on New Year’s Eve playing against the winner of the Penn St./SMU CFP game.

With that as a basis, let me also call to your attention another college RB this year – – Cam Skattebo from Arizona St.  This guy is also very good and an exciting runner; against Iowa St. in the Big-12 championship game, he carried the ball 16 times for 170 yards and 2 TDs.  The next time Skattebo will take the field is on New Year’s Day against the winner of the Texas/Clemson CFP game.

UMass joined Division 1-A football competition in 2012; since that “elevation” the Minutemen have never won more than four games in a season and they have gone through four head coaches in those last 12 seasons.  Next up will be Joe Harasymiak who will lead UMass into the MAC starting in 2025. Goodluck to Coach Harasymiak and to the team in MAC competition next year.  I know I can’t wait for a showdown between UMass and Kent State on a random Tuesday night in November of next year …

Another college coaching move involves Dan Mullen whose career arc seems to be inverted:

• Mullen was head coach at Florida; that did not work out well.
• Mullen was head coach at Mississippi St.; that did not work out well.
• Mullen was just hired as head coach at UNLV.
• Connect the dots and the next job for Dan Mullen is …?  UMass?

In college games from last week:

Georgia 22  Texas 19 (OT):  It took Georgia more than the allotted 60 minutes of football to win the SEC Championship Game and they did it with their starting QB on the sidelines for the second half, but the Bulldogs pulled a rabbit out of a hat and won this game.  The Longhorns have lost twice in 2024 and both losses were to Georgia.

Clemson 34  SMU 31:  Clemson led this game 31-14 at the start of the fourth quarter and held off a big rally by SMU to become the ACC Champion for 2024.  SMU outgained Clemson by 125 yards for the game – – to no avail.

Oregon 45  Penn St. 37:  The Nittany Lions outgained Oregon for the game, but two INTs by the Ducks gave them just enough edge to post a victory here as Oregon is the Big-10 champion in its first year of Big-10 competition.

 Boise St. 21  UNLV 7:  Ashton Jeanty carried 32 times and gained 209 yards plus a TD in the game assuring Boise St. a slot in the CFP.  As it turns out, they also got a BYE week out of the deal.  The Boise St. defense was on display in the game; here are the drives by UNLV for the first three quarters of the game:

• 5 plays  11  yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  6 yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  minus-8 yards  PUNT
• 9 plays  50 yards  MISSED FIELD GOAL
• 3 plays  4  yards  PUNT
• 2 plays  0 yards  INT
• 7 plays  12 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  81 yards  TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 3 plays  2 yards  PUNT

Army 35  Tulane 14:  Tulane had – – supposedly – – the high-octane offense here and Army was more of a “ground and pound” sort of team.  Tulane gained 210 yards passing as compared to Army’s 17 yards passing (on 2 for 2 attempts by the way).  But the Cadets also managed to rush the ball for 335 yards in the game and forced 2 turnovers to win the game going away.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Navy vs. Army – 6.5 (39):  The two teams combined to produce a record of 19-4 this season.  I have seen large parts of 3 Navy games this year and 2 Army games this year.  Army is the better team.  Would I lay points in a rivalry game like this? No thank you, but I must admit I am tempted to take the game to stay UNDER.  Nonetheless, I’ll just watch Army/Navy and enjoy the all-out effort by everyone on every play.

 

NFL Commentary

 

The NY Jets have been mathematically eliminated from the AFC Playoffs as a result of their loss to the Dolphins last week.  Given the return to availability of Aaron Rodgers and given the performance of the Jet’s defense in 2023, I did not foresee this state of affairs.  I did not expect the Jets to make a run to the Super Bowl this year, but I also did not expect them to be mathematically eliminated with 4 games left on the schedule and a record of 3-10-0.

Perhaps I should have let recent history be my guide to expectations for the Jets.  The last time the Jets made the AFC playoffs was in 2010.  Here are some milestones from that year to refresh your memory:

• The iPad was first offered to the public.
• The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico happened.
• Rex Ryan was the head coach of the NY Jets
• Instagram launched
• “Arab Spring” was a big thing
• Mark Sanchez was the starting QB for the NY Jets.
• This was two years BEFORE the Butt-Fumble.

It has been a long and frustrating time for Jets’ fans, and it does not look as if there is a bright light ahead in their tunnel.  I expect Aaron Rodgers to play well over the next four games because I do believe he wants to play again in 2025 – – but not for the Jets.  Therefore, he needs to put “good performance” on tape for other offensive coaches to see and evaluate – – and then hopefully lead them to offer him a contract.

My conclusion that Rodgers wants to play in 2025 derives from me practicing psychoanalysis without a license and at a distance – – never really particularly reliable.  In the vernacular, I think Aaron Rodgers is an “attention whore”; I think he derives great satisfaction from being the center of attention whereby he can offer up some of his well-beyond normal viewpoints on everything from vaccine effectiveness to ayahuasca value.  Now because I think that is the case, I think that Aaron Rodgers is smart enough to realize that unless he is a starting NFL QB, his purchase on that outré limb of the social tree is not very secure.  When he is merely “Aaron Rodgers – – Very Wealthy Former Athlete with Weirdo Views”, he is going to have far fewer opportunities to be a center of attention, and I think he does not relish that situation in his future.

So, as of today, the Jets have the 7^th pick in the Draft next year.  I think Rodgers can win the Jets one game and maybe two games in the remaining four games and that will not give the Jets nearly as valuable a Draft pick as they have now.  But Rodgers does not plan or want to be with the Jets in 2025 or beyond, so do not be surprised if he ups his game and “leads” the Jets to at least a 4-13-0 record if not a 5-12-0 record.

Maybe there is something in the water supply in NYC that makes football players prone to ineptitude.  As bad as a 3-10-0 record by the Jets may be, the other NY team – – the Giants – – are worse at 2-11-0 and the Giants do not have a QB on their roster who might – – potentially – – carry the team to a couple of wins.  Aaron Rodgers may be having the worst year of his career, but if you had to pick a NYC QB to win a key game, you would surely take Rodgers over Drew Lock or “Tommy Cutlets”.

I was looking ahead in the NFL schedule to decide what to say about the Jets for the rest of the year and ran across the fact that the Raiders and the Jags will face off in Las Vegas next week in a 4:30 PM time slot.  I want to go on record now without having spent the time and energy to look at the complete NFL card for next weekend and say that the Jags/Raiders game on December 22^nd 2024 will be the pre-emptive Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

One more note from my looking ahead at the rest of the NFL schedule …  The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently 10-3-0 and lead the AFC North.  The Steelers are a very good team, and they are benefiting from the reincarnation of Russell Wilson as their QB.  Having said all that positive stuff, the Steelers’ schedule from here to the end of the regular season is brutal; the schedule maker did the Steelers no favors down the stretch with this parade of opponents:

• 12/15/24  @ Philly   Eagles are 11-2-0 as of today.
• 12/21/24  @ Baltimore  Ravens are 8-5-0 as of today.
• 12/25/24  Vs. KC  Chiefs are 12-1-0 as of today.
• 1/5/25  Vs. Cincy  Bengals are 5-8-0 as of today.
• Combined, the next 4 Steelers’ opponents are 36-16-0.  Wow!

Here is an interesting stat I ran across; it says that the Cards and Kyler Murray are far more formidable early in the season than late in the season.  Make of this what you will:

• Cards are 22-16-1 when Murray starts a game for them in Week 8 or earlier.
• Cards are 12-28-0 when Murray starts a game for them in Week 9 or later.

The Miami Dolphins and Odell Beckham, Jr. have come to a mutual agreement and a parting of the ways; OBJ has been released.  This has not been a good season for the WR; he has appeared in 9 games this year with 9 receptions for 55 yards.

Here is a look at some of last week’s NFL games.

Bengals 27  Cowboys 20:  If you have been an NFL fan for a long enough period of time, you will understand that the Bengals won this game because of a second “Leon Lett Incident” in the late stages of the game.  If that reference does not mean anything to you, Google is your friend.

Vikes 42  Falcons 21:  At one point in this game, the score was tied 21-21.  Kirk Cousins’ “revenge game” did not play out well for the Falcons’ QB.

Jags 10  Titans 6:  The Titans turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Jags’ 10-yardline.  The Jags did not really “win” this game; they merely “avoided losing” this game.

Saints 14  Giants 11: A blocked field goas at the end of the game by the Saints prevented OT.  For those fans who were forced to watch this game as a “local game”, that must have been a blessing; no one would have wanted this game to go on beyond 60 minutes of regulation time.

Seahawks 30  Cards 18:  The Cards had a hot streak in mid-season but that appears to be over and done with.  The Seahawks and Rams look to be the class of the NFC West.

Rams 44  Bills 42:  The score does not indicate it, but both teams played decent defense in this game; the score reflects that both offenses were on fire all night long.  All Bills’ QB Josh Allen did was to throw for 3 TDs and rush for 3 more.  Not a bad day at the office …  And yet, it was not enough.  The Bills scored 6 TDs in the game and did not turn the ball over.  That leads to this statistical oddity:

• Since the NFL/AFL merger, teams scoring 6 TDs and managing never to turn the ball over in a game were 245-0.
• Now they are 245-1 …

Chiefs 19  Chargers 17:  This time, the Chiefs’ miracle ending was a chip shot field goal that “doinked” off the upright and dropped behind the crossbar as time expired.  Why not?

Lions 34  Packers 31:  The Lions were 7 for 15 in third-down conversions and 4 for 5 in fourth down conversions.  One of those fourth down conversions was in the final two minutes that set up the winning field goal in the game.

 

NFL Games This Week

 

            There are no more BYE Weeks in the NFL regular season; there will be a full slate of 16 games each weekend from here to the end of the season.  Many of the games will be in non-traditional time slots, but there will be sixteen of them every weekend.

Interestingly, “home field advantage” seems to have taken a week off in the NFL this week.  Seven of the fifteen remaining games for this weekend have the visiting team favored by 2.5 points (Packers) to 16 points (Ravens).

In last night’s action the Rams beat the Niners 12-6.  Yes, all the scores were field goals; neither endzone lost its virginity for the entirety of the game.  The Total Line for the game closed at 48.5 points; yes, there was bad weather in the first half, but people playing the UNDER were never worried.  The Rams’ hopes for the playoffs – – and even for the division championship of the NFC West – – remain alive.  The Niners are not mathematically eliminated but it would take an intervention by someone’s Fairy Godmother to get the Niners into this year’s playoffs.

According to Niner’s coach, Kyle Shanahan, LB, De’Vondre Campbell refused to into the game in the second half last night.  Instead of going onto the field as instructed, Campbell decided to take his game to the locker room.  According to Spotrac.com, Campbell signed a 1-year contract with the Niners last year; that contract may have reached termination last night.  This will not end well; Campbell also left the Packers with a bit of drama in the past.

Commanders – 7.5 at Saints (43.5):  The spread opened at 3.5 points and the Total Line opened at 47.5.  When folks began to realize that the Saints would be starting either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener at QB for the game, both lines moved significantly.  Some local sports radio shows here have tried to play this up as a “Chase Young Revenge Game” for the Saints’ DE.  Any port in a storm is my reaction there.  The Commanders had their BYE Week last week, so they are “rested” and “ready to go”.  I would greatly prefer to play this game without that hook on top of the full TD spread, but as of this morning such is not the case.  Nonetheless, I’ll take the Commanders to win and cover even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins at Texans – 2.5 (47):  The Texans have a comfy 2-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South; the Dolphins cannot win the AFC East, but they still have a low-probability of being part of the AFC Playoffs.  The motivation edge here is clearly with the Dolphins.

Jets – 3.5 at Jags (40):  This game was ever so close to getting the Dog-Breath label for this week.  This is one of the games the Jets can/should win and when/if they do, it will hurt their Draft position come April 2025.  The Jags are a complete mess.  If QB is “the most important position”, then this game boils down to Aaron Rodgers versus Mac Jones.  Normally, I stay far away from games involving two bad teams, but I really do think the Jets have the edge here; so, I’ll take the Jets on the road and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bengals – 5 at Titans (46):  The Bengals finally found an opponent last week who could make a bigger blunder at a critical time than the Bengals had been doing for the season.  Was that a turning point for the Bengals?  The Titans faced a mediocre defense last week (Jags) and scored the grand total of 6 points; this is another severely flawed defense opposing the Titans’ offense.  Does that Titans’ unit have sufficient pride and sufficient talent to take advantage here?

Ravens – 16 at Giants (42.5): The spread opened at 12.5 points and then it was revealed that Drew Lock was in a “walking boot” and that “Tommy Cutlets” was getting the reps with the starting team during the week.  The Ravens are in a comfortable position with regard to making the playoffs; they still have a chance to win their division if for no other reason than the Steelers (current AFC North leader) has a very difficult schedule between now and January 5^th (see above).  I do not play NFL games with double-digit spreads; so, this one is off the board for me.  But I do think the Ravens will coast to a victory here.  For your information, the Ravens are mnus-1600 on the Money Line.

Chiefs – 4 at Browns (43):  The Chiefs are 12-1-0; the Browns are 3-10-0.  This short-priced spread reflects the reality that the Chiefs are 12-1-0 but they only have a point differential of 56 points.  By comparison, the Lions also are 12-1-0 but the Lions have a point differential of 183 points.  Given the way things have played out this year, expect the Browns’ QB, Jameis Winston to throw for at least 350 yards and also to throw a couple of really hurtful INTs allowing the Chiefs to prevail.  But by more than 4 points … ?  Here is a trend for those of you who follow such things:

• In their last 7 games, the Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread.

Cowboys at Panthers – 2.5 (43):  Can you believe that a team that went 2-15 last year is the favorite over “America’s Team” this week?  In terms of a battle between gigantic owners’ egos, this game has to be monumental.  The Panthers’ record is 3-10-0 but they have played some good teams very tough in the last several weeks.  I think the Panthers extinguish the Cowboys’ playoff hopes with a win in this game; I’ll take the Panthers to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers at Eagles – 5.5 (43):  I read somewhere that the Steelers have not won over the Eagles in Philly since 1965.  The Steelers were not very good in 1965; their record for the year was 2-12-0.  The 2025 iteration of the Steelers is much better than that.  Here is a betting stat to keep in mind for this game:

• The Steelers have been underdogs 5 times this season.
• The Steelers won all 5 of those games outright.

Bills at Lions – 2 (53.5):  This is the Game of the Week; it just might be a Super Bowl preview game.  As important as the Steelers/Eagles game is to both teams, this one is the standout game this week; the two teams combine to bring a record of 22-4-0 to the kickoff.  Both teams aspire to the BYE Week in the playoffs in their conference; for the Lions, it means winning to maintain the lead they have; for the Bills it means win or fall way behind the Chiefs with not a lot of time remaining.  The Total Line for this game opened at 51.5 points and has been inching upward all week long; I think this will be a shootout where two very good offenses exploit two good but not great defenses; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Colts at Broncos – 4 (44):  As of now, the Broncos are a wild card team in the AFC Playoffs and the Colts are chasing them for that final playoff slot.  This game is must-win for the Colts, but I think that the Broncos’ defense is good enough to keep Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson in check.  So, can Colts’ RB, Jonathan Taylor win the day for Indy?  More importantly, can Anthony Richardson avoid doing something that assures a loss for the Colts?

Bucs at Chargers – 3 (45):  The Bucs have clawed their way back to the top of the NFC South and hold a 1-game lead over the Falcons who are road favorites this week.  The Chargers lost a heartbreaker to the Chiefs last week (see above) and really do not want to lose another and get deep into the muck and mire of wildcard playoff tiebreakers.

Pats at Cards – 6 (46.5):  This game – – like the Jets/Jags game got some thought as a Dog-Breath game – – but the Cards are still viable as division champs of the NFC West.  So, let it be sufficient to say that the Cards must win this game and should win it comfortably.  But do I trust Kyler Murray …?  The Pats had last week off to get ready for the season’s “home stretch”; the Cards lost their third game in a row last week.

(Sun Nite) Packers – 2.5 at Seahawks (45.5):  As of this morning, both teams are “in the playoffs”.  The Seahawks’ position is slightly more precarious; as of today, they are a half-game ahead of the Rams in their division; meanwhile, the Packers are comfortably positioned in the wildcard chase.  Motivation edge goes to the Seahawks at home.  Offensive firepower edge goes to the Packers on the road.

(Mon Nite early) Bears at Vikes – 7 (44):  I am sure the ESPN execs were happy to get MNF double headers during the regular season and they paid top-dollar for them.  So in this particular double header, this game is the better of the two by a lot – – even though the Bears have lost 7 games in a row after losing to the Commanders on that Hail Mary Miracle.

(Mon Nite late) Falcons – 4 at Raiders (44.5):  Here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Falcons bring a 4-game losing streak to the game; the Raiders see that losing streak and raise it by an added 5 games.  It’s a shame there is no way for both teams to lose here to maintain the “tradition” they have created for themselves.  If the Falcons fall behind, is this where they turn to Michael Penix, Jr.?  Who will be the Raiders’ QB?  Aiden O’Connell with his bone bruise or Desmond Ridder who would seek to resurrect his career with a win here?

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Commanders – 7.5 over Saints
• Jets – 3.5 over Jags
• Panthers – 2.5 over Cowboys
• Bills/Lions OVER 53.5

And here are three Money Line Parlays

• Army @ minus-200
• Panthers @ minus-150     $100 wager to win $150

And …

• Bengals @ minus-230
• Commanders @ minus-370
• Vikes 2 minus-300     $100 wager to win $143

And a Money Line Parlay with “plus-money” on all three legs …

• Dolphins @ +135
• Steelers @ +200
• Bills @ +125     $100 wager to win $1,486

Finally, let me close with this from Vince Lombardi:

“If it doesn’t matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………