Football Friday 11/22/24

I will take the opportunity of a somewhat normal week here in Curmudgeon Central – – only one travel day to navigate around – – to do a real Football Friday today since I will not be able to do one next week with the intervention of Thanksgiving.  And so, I shall begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

  • Spreads/Total Wagers went 2-2.  Meh!
  • Money Line Parlays went 2-1 for a “Profit” of $201.  Good show!

I told you earlier this week that Linfield won their game last weekend giving the Wildcats the Northwest Conference Championship and a seeded slot in the division III football playoffs.  They have this weekend off and will play Pacific Lutheran on Saturday November 30th.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2024, the Nebraska Cornhuskers, seem to have become somnambulant in recent weeks.  After starting the season with 5 wins in their first 6 games, the Huskers have now lost 4 games in a row.  They need a win over Wisconsin this week at home and/or a win over Iowa on the road for the remainder of the season to make it to a bowl game.  Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

More than 50 years ago there was a wonderful comedy film, A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum.  Last week, a funny thing happened in the world of college football.  In what appeared to be a meaningless game between the Temple Owls and the Florida Atlantic Owls – – a game won by Temple in OT extending the suffering of any/all fans who stayed to watch.  Between last Saturday and today, Florida Atlantic fired losing coach, Tom Herman; I guess you can chalk that up to the Athletic Director suffering from the ignominy of losing to another miserable opponent.

But wait, there’s more.  Temple also fired its coach – – the guy who just won a game last weekend.  Stan Drayton was shown the door after being on the Temple sidelines for the last three seasons where his teams won a total of 9 games.  When coaches get fired in mid-season, it is usually after a loss or just before a BYE week so that the interim coach can try to install something new for the team to try to execute.  I cannot recall a situation where both the winning coach and the losing coach in a game were both fired within about 48 hours of the final whistle.

I went down a rabbit hole looking for coaches who have been fired in mid-season this year in Division 1-A college football.  I am sure I have not gotten all of them but there is something interesting about the listing that I did come up with.  In alphabetical order:

  • Ball St.
  • Florida Atlantic
  • Kennesaw St.
  • Rice
  • Southern Mississippi
  • Temple
  • UMass – – and – –
  • Utah St. all fired their head coaches this year.

All eight of these schools have either been in my SHOE Tournament in the past or are on the SHOE Watchlist this year.  Schools like Temple, UMass and Ball St. qualify on both counts.  Maybe the message here is that there are programs that just are not going perform up to a level of mediocrity on a consistent basis and coaches who think that they are the chosen ones to effect such a transition of fortunes are living in a delusion.

It was not so long ago that football commentators were pushing for expansion of the CFP.  One of the prevailing narratives was that a field of only 4 teams left out worthy contenders and that expansion of the field to either a field of 8 or a field of 16 would assure that all the worthy teams got a chance for glory.  Some proponents went so far as to say that expansion of the field would end all the weeping and gnashing of teeth among the fanbases of the teams who were “snubbed”.

The CFP has been expanded to 12 teams.  That is better than 4 teams to be sure.  Is twelve the ideal number?  Check back in 2034 after I have ceased to produce these expositions for the answer to that query.  However, we can already discern that one part of the previous narrative was either wishful thinking or unadulterated bullsh*t.  The debates over which teams were “snubbed” in the selection process has simply moved down the ladder slightly.

  • In the 4-team CFP Era, teams ranked 5 and 6 experienced fanbase weeping and gnashing of teeth.
  • In the 12-team CFP Era, teams ranked 13th and 14th – – and maybe even 15th – – will experience fanbase weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The latest CFP rankings from this week make the points above.  In the Top 10 for this week, there are only two “debates”:

  1. Should Indiana be as high as it is because its undefeated record has come against a weak slate of opponents, and it is hardly a traditional football powerhouse?
  2. Should Alabama with 2 losses be ranked above three 1-loss teams, Miami, SMU and BYU?

However, lots of ammunition is being accumulated among fans of SMU, BYU, Texas A&M and Colorado should they remain as the 13th through 16th ranked teams on the list; they would be left out of this year’s CFP, and no one is going to like that even a little bit.

This latest ranking definitely shows the pecking order for the so called “Power 4” Conferences:

  • Big-10:  Four of the Top-5 teams this week are from the Big-10.
  • SEC:  Five of the Top-12 teams this week are from the SEC
  • ACC:  One of the Top-12 teams this week is from the ACC
  • Big-12:  None of the Top-12 teams this week is from the Big-12

At least for this season, perhaps we should not refer to the “Power-4” and focus on the “Power-2”.    Just a thought …

Before I leave the subject of the CFP and the rankings, let me make sure that everyone understands something fundamental about the CFP structure.

  • The CFP Selection Committee is NOT seeking to identify and invite the 12 best football teams in college football this year or in any future year.
  • The CFP Selection Committee will try to put the best field together for the tournament within the constraints placed on it.
  • The Committee MUST invite 5 conference champions – – ACC, Big-10, Big-12, SEC – – plus the “highest rated conference champion” of the other 5 football conferences in Division 1-A football.

Looking at this week’s rankings – – and assuming they do not change drastically in the next several weeks – – the Big-12 champion, and the “highest rated other champion” will be in the field no matter where they stand in the Top-25 rankings by the Committee.

  • It appears that the ACC champion will be determined by a game between SMU and Miami; that winner will get an automatic invitation.  Should the loser also get an invitation?
  • The highest rated teams from the Big-12 are BYU (14th) Colorado (16th) Arizona St. (21st) and Iowa St. (22nd).   BYU and Colorado have only 1 loss in conference and appear to be the teams to play for the Big-12 Championship and a guaranteed invitation to the CFP.
  • Boise St. is the “highest rated conference leader among the other conferences” and is ranked this week at 12th.  Boise St. is undefeated in the Mountain West conference – – but so is Colorado St. who is nowhere to be found in the Selection Committee’s Top-25.

Here are some brief comments regarding games from last weekend.

Florida 27  LSU 16:  It was not a good night for Brian Kelly or his LSU team.  Two weeks ago, they were the victims of a serious beatdown at home at the hands of Alabama.  Three weeks ago, the Tigers dropped one against Texas A&M.  This was supposed to be a “get-well game” against a middling SEC squad.  This loss leaves the Tigers with a 3-3 record in conference and a 6-4 record overall.  Remember when Kelly resigned at Notre Dame to take over the LSU program, he said that he did that because he could win a national championship at LSU but not at Notre Dame.  Don’t look now, but Notre Dame is ranked 6th this week by the CFP Selection Committee and LSU is not even on the Committee’s long-range radar.

Rutgers 31  Maryland 17:  Rutgers will be in a bowl game this year.

Boise St. 42  San José St.  21:  I suggested last week that you tune in to this game if you could in order to watch RB, Ashton Jeanty.  Here is his stat line:

  • 32 carries for 159 yards and 3 TDs

Georgia 31  Tennessee 17:   The Bulldogs had lost their last game to Ole Miss and that had them outside the CFP playoff window.  This win moved them up, but not far enough as of this week to be sure of a CFP invitation.  However, they have finished their SEC schedule grind and will close out the season with a home game against UMass (cupcake game) and the big rivalry game against Georgia Tech; two wins there could get Georgia into the field where they will have a chance to defend their national champion status from last year.  Tennessee had not allowed more than 19 points all season, but they were dominated last week; Georgia gained 453 yards on offense and converted 8 of 13 third-down situations.

Texas 20  Arkansas 10:  The Longhorns have only 1 conference loss in the SEC as of today as do the Aggies of Texas A&M.  Those teams were bitter rivals back in the days of the old Southwestern Conference and then in the Big-12 until the Aggies “defected” to the SEC.  The two teams will play each other on Nov 30th which might be very interesting because these two teams may be considered the best teams in the conference after that game meaning they would meet again in the SEC Championship Game a week later.  Stranger things have happened.

Texas A&M 38  New Mexico St. 3:  This was a tune-up game for the Aggies.

Colorado 49  Utah 24:  The Buffaloes probably need to win the Big-12 Championship to get into the CFP because they have two losses on their record – – one of them coming at the hands of my “sleeper team for 2024”, the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Utah St. 55  Hawaii 10:  Utah St. was on the SHOE Watchlist last week; Hawaii had won 4 games this year.  This was a rout from the start; the halftime score was 24-3; the score at the end of the 3rd quarter was 45-3.  Ouch!

SMU 38  BC 28:  The Mustangs are 9-1 this year and should play for the ACC Championship barring a stumble against Virginia this week and/or a loss to Cal next week.

Penn St. 49  Purdue 10:  Purdue is a bad football team this year.  I don’t know whether to call them Pur-don’t or Pur-can’t.  You make the call…

Texas St. 58  So. Mississippi 3:  Another rout of a SHOE Team.

Oregon 16  Wisconsin 13:  When the 4th quarter started, Wisconsin led 13-6 but the Ducks managed to eke this one out to remain undefeated for 2024.

Memphis 53  UAB 18:  Sorry, but UAB is not a good football team in 2024…

Kansas 17  BYU 13:  First loss of the year for BYU.  That makes this week’s game between BYU and Arizona St. very important for the Big-12 standings.

Miami (OH) 34  Kent St. 7:  Kent St. remains as the only winless team in Division 1-A college football for 2024.  In this game, Kent St. scored first with 13:40 left on the clock in the first quarter.  After that came the deluge:

  • Miami Total Offense = 479 yards
  • Kent St. Total Offense = 183 yards  [Hat Tip to Louis XV of France]

As the college regular season comes close to its end, the focus on the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award becomes clearer.

  • Utah St. gives up 39.1 points per game.  They only gave up 10 points last week
  • Ball St. gives up 40.1 points per game.  They gave up 51 points last week.
  • Kent St. gives up 44.2 points per game.  They gave up 34 points last week.

And here is one more SHOE Tournament Watchlist with 12 entries in alphabetical order:

  1. Akron:  The Zips are 2-8 and play Kent. St. this week
  2. Ball St.  Second for the Brothel Defense Award, they give up 289.1 ypg passing
  3. FAU:  They are 2-8; when you lose to a SHOE Watchlist team, you replace it
  4. Florida St.  They are an embarrassingly bad 1-9
  5. Kennesaw St.  They are 1-9 and have already fired their coach
  6. Kent St. Leader for the Brothel Defense Award and an 0-10 record
  7. Purdue:  They are 1-9 and have not been competitive in many of the losses
  8. So. Mississippi:  They are 1-9 and 8 of the losses were by 16+ points.
  9. Tulsa:  They are 3-7 and give up 309.1 ypg passing – – worst in the country
  10. UAB:  They are 2-8 and that is just a bad football team.
  11. UMass:  They are 2-8; they fired their coach; they play Georgia this week.
  12. UTEP:  They are 2-8; they have scheduled Tennessee this week.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

Colorado – 2.5 at Kansas (60) Game is in Kansas City:  Colorado needs this game to stay in contention for the Big-12 Championship Game; Kansas can only be a spoiler here.  I am not a fan of Deion Sanders’ antics that draw attention to himself, but he has shown me that he can coach college football players.  I like the Buffaloes to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ole Miss – 10 at Florida (55):  The Gators need another win to become bowl-eligible and the Gators need another win to avoid a third consecutive losing season. Ole Miss is a longshot to make the CFP, but another loss would extinguish that tiny flame of hope.

Wisconsin at Nebraska – 2 (42.5):    My “sleeper team” needs this one badly…

Penn St. – 11 at Minnesota (45):  The Nittany Lions cannot afford to stumble here.

Indiana at Ohio St. – 13 (51):  The oddsmakers are rather convinced that Indiana’s bubble will burst this weekend.  A blowout loss to Ohio St. could drop the Hoosiers from the Top 12; a close game with the Buckeyes could solidify Indiana’s place in the CFP field.  This is the College Game of the Week.

UMass at Georgia – 42.5 (55.5):  A SHOE candidate takes on a CFP hopeful.  Who scheduled this one … ?

UTEP at Tennessee – 41.5 (52.5): A SHOE candidate takes on a CFP hopeful.  Who scheduled this one …?

Iowa St. – 7 at Utah (42.5):  The Cyclones can still make it to the Big-12 Championship Game but cannot afford to stumble.

BYU at Arizona St. – 3 (48.5):  BYU lost for the first time last week and cannot afford another loss if they want to be sure of a place in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Stanford at Cal – 14 (55.5):  Huge rivalry game here …  Keep the bands in the stands!

Texas A&M – 2.5 at Auburn (46.5):  The Aggies need this game to remain in the standings as a 1-loss team in the SEC and therefore a slot in the SEC Championship.

USC – 5 at UCLA (51.5):  Another huge rivalry game …

Army at Notre Dame – 14.5 (44.5) Game is in NY:  Remember, Army is undefeated in 2024; this is a crucial test for the Cadets; I think they are overmatched here.

Washington St. – 11.5 at Oregon St. (57):  The winner here is the champion of the “PAC-12 remnants” …

Alabama – 13 at Oklahoma (47):  The Crimson Tide cannot afford another loss if they are to remain CFP relevant.

Colorado St. at Fresno St. – 3 (47):  Colorado St. opened the week as a 2-point favorite but that spread has flipped.  Remember, Colorado St. is undefeated in Mountain West Conference games as of this week…

Missouri – 7 at Mississippi St. (57):  Mizzou has been disappointing for the last month or so, but they could have some fun here against a Mississippi St. defense that allows more than 460 yards per game.  I’ll take the Tigers on the road to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Earlier this week, I discussed the NY Jets firing of their head coach and then their GM.  Filling either or both of those positions with a top-shelf candidate should require some fundamental answers from ownership.

  1. Yes, or no, is Aaron Rodgers going to be on the roster next year?  The new GM candidates need to know that to develop anything resembling a reasonable roster restructuring plan.  The new coaching candidates need to know if they want to try to live out a year with Rodgers and then face a QB search which could mean starting from scratch.
  2. Is ownership willing to pay Rodgers his guaranteed money if the coach and the GM say they do not want him on the team?  I am not a capologist and do not pretend to understand the nuances of lots of NFL contracts, but my calculation is that Rodgers would need to be paid a little over $20M to go away and that he would cost almost $25M against the Jets’ cap in 2025.

I am sure there are plenty of nuanced scenarios within the framework of those questions, but the only reason someone might take either of the open jobs without some clarity on those questions is because the financial terms are very lucrative or because the candidate is a retread who really wants to be an NFL coach again but cannot get his foot back in the door.

Meanwhile, across town in NYC, the NY Football Giants also made news this week.  The Giants will bench Daniel Jones and start Tommy DeVito (“Tommy Cutlets”) this week and potentially for the rest of 2024.  Speculation has been that both of those decisions are financially driven according to this “logic”:

  • The Giants’ braintrust has given up on Jones even though he still has 2 years to go on his contract.  In 2025, Jones will bring a cap hit of $41M to the Giants and that could be higher if he is injured this year.  He has a $23M “injury guarantee” in his contract for 2025.  Hence, the “logic” goes that the Giants are benching him to prevent an injury that will cost them more money in 2025 for a guy they don’t want.
  • There is too much mind-reading in that explanation for my taste – – but there is another financial aspect here.  Last year, the Giants signed Drew Lock to a 1-year contract for $5M to be the backup.  Lock is still there and is not injured – – but he is not going to be the starter going forward.  According to Spotrac.com, there are incentive clauses in Lock’s contract that might trigger if he were to play in the final 7 games of the season.  Tommy DeVito’s contract has no incentive clauses in it so there is no possibility of a trigger.

That second “situation” makes me wonder…

I don’t want to give anyone the impression that I am picking on the NFL teams from NY simply because they are from NY.  I prefer to think of myself as an equal-opportunity curmudgeon who can spot dysfunctionality wherever it exists and that in 2024 dysfunctionality has manifest itself gloriously in the two NY franchises.  So, which one is in the worse shape?  That is akin to deciding who your favorite Menendez brother might be.

Overall, I like the Jets’ roster better than the Giants’ roster even accounting for the fact that Aaron Rodgers is going to be 42 years old next year and now plays with the hopes of achieving mid-tier status as an NFL QB.  If the Giants have indeed soured on Daniel Jones and are experimenting with Tommy Devito and/or Drew Lock as their QB for now and maybe next year, that tandem is not up to snuff in a competitive NFL.

I ran across a report on CBSSports.com earlier this week that said Andy Reid can join a very exclusive club with his next win as coach of the Chiefs.  According to that report, only Bill Belichick and Don Shula have more double-digit wins in a season as compared to Andy Reid.  Those two guys both achieved that record 20 times in their coaching careers; Andy Reid has done it 19 times and he has 9 wins on the books already for 2024.  Make room for “Big Red” to join Belichick and Shula in that exclusive club.

I said here last week that I think the Cowboys should be playing Trey Lance for the resto of this season.  Lance is still a mystery.

  • Can he be a starter in the NFL?
  • Can he be a reliable backup in the NFL?
  • Is he a bust who should be out of the league entirely?

If the answer to Question 3 above is in the affirmative, then the Cowboys need to move on from him but the answer there cannot be known with any confidence unless Lance gets a chance to play with the rest of the Cowboys’ starters under real game conditions.  If the answer to Question 3 above is in the negative – – or even in the “doubtful range” – – it would be important for the Cowboys to assess his performance ceiling.  The reason is that if Lance shows he can be a solid backup and the Cowboys remain steadfastly behind Cooper Rush as their backup, then Trey Lance becomes a valuable trade asset for the team.  No other team will pay top-dollar for a guy who was taken #3 overall in the draft who has yet to be able to see the field regularly on Sundays in the NFL.  But if Lance shows that he is capable at the NFL level, then the Cowboys can do some wheeling and dealing to accumulate more players via the Draft.

None of this can be accomplished with Cooper Rush as the Cowboys’ QB simply because the league pretty much knows what Cooper Rush is and what he can do.  And if the Cowboys continue to put Lance “behind” Rush in terms of game time, that is not an inducement for other teams’ GMs to make big-time offers for Lance.  Unfortunately for Cowboys’ fans, owner/GM Jerry Jones sees the world differently from the logic-based position I have taken here:

“We have thought it was just too important for us to have [Lance] at quarterback in these last two ballgames because we need to win to that degree and give ourselves every chance we can.  We hadn’t gotten to the point that we were looking to evaluate Trey Lance more, at all.”

After reading that, I should be able to convince you that the current mantra in the Cowboys’ Front Office is:

“Hope springs eternal…”  [Hat tip to Alexander Pope.]

Before I get to comments on a few of last week’s games, I want to take a peek at the NFC South standings.  As of this morning, the Falcons lead the division at 6-5-0 and the Bucs trail them by a game-and-a-half at 4-6-0.  But it is worse than it looks:

  • The Falcons beat the Bucs twice in October so the Falcons permanently own any tiebreaker that might come into play due to overall record.
  • That might be important when you look at the remainder of the Bucs’ schedule which is relatively soft:
      • At Giants – – Giants are currently 2-8
      • At Panthers – – Panthers are currently 3-7
      • Vs. Raiders – – Raiders are currently 2-8
      • At Chargers – – Chargers are currently 7-3, could be a tough game
      • At Cowboys – – Cowboys are currently 3-7
      • Vs. Panthers – – A second time against this 3-7 team
      • Vs. Saints – – Saints are currently 4-7
  • Folks, that remaining schedule is pillow-soft.  But the Bucs cannot claim any tiebreaker with the Falcons and cannot inflict a loss on the Falcons for the rest of this regular season.  Nevertheless, do not be surprised if the Bucs wind up the year at 9-8 or 10-7.

Here are some comments about some of the games from last weekend:

Steelers 18  Ravens 16: The Ravens biggest problem right now might be Justin Tucker; he has been the most accurate kicker in the NFL, but 2024 is just not Tucker’s year. He missed two field goals against the Steelers and that was the difference in the game.  This game showed me that the Steelers must be considered as Super Bowl contenders. They have an excellent defense as always plus solid special teams and an offense that has the ability to make big plays.

Chargers 37  Bengals 27:  The Bengals were in the game to the end and then they found a way to lose. Joe Burrow threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns; Tee Higgins returned to the lineup and caught 9 passes for 148 yards and 1 TD in the game.  The defense was not great, but it played well enough to keep the Bengals from being squashed.  So, it was the special teams that came up with a way to lose the game; the biggest problem was kicker, Evan McPherson, who missed two field goals in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now lost 6 one-score games in the 2024 regular season.

Packers 20  Bears 19:   The Bears’ decision to fire offensive coordinator Shane Waldron looked awfully good last week.  The Bears’ offense produced  391 yards; Caleb Williams threw for 231 yards and he added 70 yards on the ground. Williams also directed a final drive by to set up Cairo Santos’ game-winning field goal attempt, but it amounted to nothing, because the Packers blocked the field goal attempt.

Seahawks 20  Niners 17:  The Seahawks, Niners and Rams are all 5-5-0 this year and all of them trail the Cards (6-4-0) in the NFC West race.  The Seahawks’ defense had been letting the team down for the last month or so, but they showed up for real against the Niners.  Geno Smith led the winning drive in the final minutes of the game and scored on a 13-yard QB scramble to seal the deal.

Eagles 26  Commanders 18:  The Eagles’ defense finally made Jayden Daniels have a bad game; he only threw for 191 yards and only added 18 yards on the ground. The Commanders’ defense was similarly mediocre in the second half where the Eagles ran for 141 yards.  Saquon Barkley took over the second half; he rushed for 76 yards and two touchdowns.  The Eagles didn’t play anything near a “perfect” game, but they won comfortably.

Colts 28  Jets 27:  The Colts’ gave the starting QB job back to Anthony Richardson and it paid off last week. Richardson had a fine showing in the game.   He threw for 272 yards, and he engineered a game-winning TD drive where he scored what was the game-winning TD with 46 seconds left on the clock.

Dolphins 34  Raiders 19:  The Dolphins still have a shot at the playoffs but they may need to win-out; the Raiders – – not so much.  In the first half, the Raiders got inside the Dolphins’ 10-yard line twice and did not get a TD on either occasion.  The Raiders’ defense was similarly inept allowing the Dolphins to convert 8 or 12 third-down tries. The Raiders’ record this morning is 2-8; the Raiders’ season is kaput.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are six teams with BYE Weeks this weekend:

  1. Bengals:  I am not quite ready to consign the Bengals to the dustbin of history in 2024 – – but I have a broom in hand.
  2. Bills:  They are the class of the AFC East; they have already beaten the Chiefs.  Are they actually better than the Chiefs or the Ravens or the Steelers?  Time will tell…
  3. Falcons:  They lead the NFC South over the Bucs (see above), but they have a much more challenging schedule ahead with games against the Chargers, Vikes and Commanders still on tap.
  4. Jags:  They are playing out the string and the coach there, Doug Pederson, seems to be a dead man walking…
  5. Jets:  The word “Jets” is an anagram for the word “Jest”.  Does that help you understand what that team is all about?
  6. Saints:  They are not “out of it” – – yet…

Last night the Browns beat the Steelers in what would be called a blizzard in many parts of the US.  I enjoy watching one or two “snow games” a season; I now have one under my belt.  An interesting outcome here is the play of the Steelers’ special teams.  Those teams have been a strength for the Steelers for years including this season.  Last night the Steelers’ special teams came up short.

  • The Steelers missed a field goal that would have changed the strategy of the game significantly.
  • In the final 5 minutes, the Steelers punter shanked one and gave the Browns the ball around midfield allowing the Browns to put the game away.

Lions – 7.5 at Colts (50.5):  Can Anthony Richardson work some magic for a second weekend in a row here?  The Colts have to hope so, because the Lions are not going to roll over and take a nap here.

Chiefs – 11 at Panthers (43):  The Panthers come to the kickoff with a two-game winning streak and the Chiefs arrive with a one-game losing streak.  If you want to play into that “trend”, the Panthers are +470 on the Money Line.

Vikes – 3 at Bears (39):  The spread opened the week at 5.5 points and has eroded down to this number as the week progressed.  This is the third road game in a row for the Vikes.

Cowboys at Commanders – 10 (45):  The Commanders have had 10 days to ruminate on a bad loss to the Eagles while the Cowboys are simply a hot mess.   Cooper Rush and/or Trey Lance versus Jayden Daniels – – who ya got?  I think this is the biggest blowout of the day and the only interesting aspect is the degree to which Jerry Jones will devolve in explaining this latest humiliation.  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Bucs – 6 at Giants (41):  Sorry, but I am not buying that Daniel Jones was the source of all the frustration surrounding the Giants in 2924 and that a QB switch will cure everything.  “Tommy Cutlets” will make a few plays that will get the fans in a frenzy, but Baker Mayfield will do the same – – and more – – when the Bucs have the ball.

Pats at Dolphins – 7.5 (46.5):  Even when the Pats were dominant, they were not a lock to win in Miami.  This Pats team is hardly dominant, and the Dolphins are still “playoff-relevant”.  Those facts prevent this from being the Dog-Breath Game of the week.

Titans at Texans – 7.5 (39.5):  The Texans looked good in beating the Cowboys last week – – but the Cowboys have a way of making just about any opponent look good.

  • [Aside:  The games above are the 1:00 PM ET games for this weekend; there’s not a lot of tension and drama generated there, and the card is not much of an enticement to tune in …]

Broncos – 6.5 at Raiders (41): The Broncos looked good beating the Falcons last week and played the Chiefs tough the week before that.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are having trouble with the basics of football such as blocking and tackling.  I agree with the oddsmakers that this will be a low-scoring game, and I like to take points in such games if the underdog seems to be viable.  I think the Raiders’ defense can play well enough to confuse Bo Nix sufficiently to keep this within a TD; I’ll take the Raiders plus the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Cards at Seahawks pick ‘em (47.5):  This is not the Game of the Week in terms of the teams and matchup, but it is probably as important a game relative to the standings as anything on the card for the weekend,

Niners at Packers – 3 (47):  This game looked a lot more enticing as a “must-see event” back in early September.

(Sun Nite) Eagles – 3 at Rams (49):   I think this is the Game of the Week in terms of team capabilities and relevance in the standings.  The Rams need this game to stay relevant in the NFC West; the Eagles need the game because they will see the Commanders/Cowboys result before they kick off here.

(Mon Nite) Ravens – 3 at Chargers (51):  If Eagles/Rams is not the Game of the Week, then this one is.  How many crowd shots of Mama and Papa Harbaugh will happen here?  I’ll set the Over/Under at 6.5…  The Ravens can make up ground on the Steelers with a win here; the Chargers need to win to stay in their comfy wildcard slot.  I like the Chargers at home plus points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

  • Missouri – 7 over Mississippi St.
  • Colorado – 2.5 over Kansas
  • Raiders +6.5 against Broncos
  • Chargers +3 against Ravens.

And just for fun, here are five Money Line Parlays:

  • Lions @ minus-360
  • Chiefs @ minus-570
  • Commanders @ minus-520
  • Texans @ minus-380     $100 wager to win $126

And …

  • Lions @ minus-360
  • Chiefs @ minus-570
  • Chargers @ +130     $100 wager to win $245

And …

  • Commanders @ minus-520
  • Lions @ minus-360
  • Vikes @ minus-180   $100 wager to win $137

And …

  • SMU @ minus-320
  • Colorado @ minus-130   $100 wager to win $132

And …

  • Penn St. @ minus-365
  • Iowa @ minus-220
  • Missouri @ minus-300     $100 wager to win $147

Finally, we hear from Vince Lombardi:

“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

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