Just as the wheels on the bus go round and round, the days of the week go round and round as well. Here we are at Friday again meaning it is time for a Football Friday. And so, to begin the festivities this morning, I shall look back at last week’s “Betting Bundle”.
- Picks against the spread were 2-2. Meh!
- Money Line Parlays were 2-1 for a “profit” of $410. Yea!
The Linfield University Wildcats extended their season record to 8-1 last week (and 6-0 in Northwest Conference games) beating Pacific Lutheran 38-10. This week is showdown week in the Northwest Conference as Linfield travels to Spokane to play Whitworth. Here is the “Tale of the Tape”:
- Linfield is 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference games
- Whitworth is 9-0 overall and 6-0 in conference games.
- Linfield cumulative score for the season is 421-101.
- Whitworth cumulative score for the season is 348-142.
- The winner gets an automatic invitation to the Division III football playoffs.
- I do not know if there are “at-large slots” in that tournament.
- Go Wildcats!
My “sleeper team” for the season was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers lost last week to UCLA by a score of 27-20 leaving them with a record of 5-4 overall and 2-4 in Big-10 games. Nebraska needs to find one more win to become bowl-eligible this season.
College Football Commentary:
With Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech last weekend, there are four teams remaining without a loss in 2024:
- Indiana 10-0 and 7-0 in the Big 10
- Oregon 10-0 and 7-0 in the Big 10
- Army 9-0 and 7-0 in the American Conference
- BYU 9-0 and 6-0 in the Big-12
Army faces a tough test this week against Notre Dame. Indiana and Oregon could well meet in the Big-10 Championship Game and BYU hosts an up-and-down Kansas team this week. Good times …
This is the time in the college football season where one poll ranking is important. This week we can see the second iteration of the CFP Selection Committee rankings as the season starts to wind down. All the other polls are sources of debate; that CFP poll is meaningful because it – – and it alone – – will determine the field in the College Football Playoffs starting next month. You can find the full rankings of the Top 25 teams in a jillion places online so I will not tabulate them here but to summarize:
- There are 4 teams from the Big-10 in the rankings (Oregon, Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State). In fact, those 4 teams are all in the Top 5.
- There are 8 teams from the SEC in the rankings with 4 teams in the Top 12 positions.
- The ACC has only 1 team in the Top 12 (Miami) and with their loss last week, they should drop out. [Aside: If you count Notre Dame as being sort of in the ACC for football, then there is another ACC entry in the Top 12 of the poll.]
- Boise St. remains the highest-ranking team outside of the “power conferences”.
Enough about all these good and glorious teams. This is coming to you straight from Curmudgeon Central where the custom is to look for failures and not just successes. As noted above – – twice in fact – – Miami lost to Georgia Tech last week in a big surprise. Miami was minus-400 on the Money Line at the kickoff and was an 11-point favorite; nevertheless, they lost outright. I got to see most of the game in a sportsbook and offer this observation:
- Miami QB, Cam Ward, has been touted as Heisman Trophy leading candidate. His performance last week was a true stinker no matter what the stats might say; that game should end his potential to be named the best college football player in the nation for 2024.
Florida State continues its death spiral of a season; last week they went to South Bend to play Notre Dame and lost by a score of 52-3. Don’t even think about looking up the stats for that game, it was as big a rout as you would imagine from the score. The Seminoles are 1-9 overall and are dead last in the ACC standings. Coach Mike Norvell used the opportunity of that loss to clean house, and he fired his offensive coordinator and his wide receivers coach and his defensive coordinator. Florida State has this week off; it has two weeks under “new management” to prepare for a home game against – – hold your breath here – – Charleston Southern.
In case you are not up to speed regarding the Buccaneers of Charleston Southern, it is a Division 1-AA program. Their record in 2024 is the same as Florida State’s record in 2024; both teams are 1-9. The difference is that Charleston Southern has been losing to the likes of Gardner Webb, Lindenwood and Tennessee-Martin. If the Seminoles lose that home game, the fans might resort to using real tomahawks for their “tomahawk chop” as they parade through the streets of Tallahassee.
The immense underachievement by Florida State served to provide cover for another program that has struggled in 2024. Normally, Oklahoma State is a sold team and lots of folks projected the Cowboys to win the Big-12 this year. Let me be polite and say nothing could have been less accurate than such projections. As of this morning, Oklahoma State is 3 – 7 overall and 0 – 7 in Big 12 games and has lost their last 7 games in a row.
I also got to see more of Purdue than I wanted to see last week. The Boilermakers were shut out by Ohio State and the outcome was never in doubt. Purdue opened the season in August with a 49-0 rout of Division 1-AA Indiana State. Since then, Purdue has only been within one score of a rival twice, since then they have lost by a cumulative score of 340 – 113. I need not search in a Thesaurus for a descriptor here; I’ll just use UGLY. Things do not get much better for the Boilermakers for the rest of the season:
- This week at home against Penn State
- Next week at Michigan State
- Two weeks from now at Indiana.
I wonder if the movers and shakers surrounding the USC football program are getting antsy about Lincoln Riley as the head coach there. Riley’s record at USC is 23-13 which is certainly not bad, but Lincoln Riley was supposed to be a “trophy hire” that was going to propel USC back to the top echelon of college football programs – – and that simply has not happened even with Caleb Williams as the USC QB for more than a season.
Back in 2022, USC signed Riley to a 10-year contract worth $110M; that is what I mean by him being a “trophy hire”. Because USC is a private school, it does not have to reveal salaries of people employed by the school, so all I can do is take what has been reported as factual. Now if you project that Riley’s deal is for $11M per year every year of the contract, then at the end of 2024 USC would have to buy him out to the tune of $77M. Before you say that is way too much for the school to take on, remember that Texas A&M bought out Jimbo Fisher for about the same amount in 2023…
I saved the most depressing commentary for last this week. Kennesaw State played UTEP last week; the two teams combined to bring a record of 2-15 to the kickoff. The game was played in El Paso; according to the Conference USA website, the attendance for the game was 14,728 folks with nothing better to do on the weekend. Assuming they all hung in there because the game was close, those hearty souls got to endure double overtime before being paroled to the parking lot to search for their transportation home. In the end, the home team – – the UTEP Miners – – prevailed 43-35 in a game that only has meaning here because both teams are probably going to the SHOE Tournament, and this will affect their seeding there.
Before getting to my SHOE watch list for this week, let me quickly remind everyone of the race to earn the Brothel Defense Award for 2024 – – given to the team that allows the most points per game meaning that it was easy to score on that defense:
- Ball State gives up 40.1 points per game
- Utah State gives up 42.3 points per game
- Kent State gives up 44.8 points per game
Here are a dozen teams that I have on my watch list for the end-of-season SHOE Tournament to determine the worst team in the country for 2024. Only 8 teams will “make the cut” and there are still games to be played – – but here is my thinking as of this morning:
- Akron – – they are 2-7 for the season and they play Kent State next Tuesday
- Florida St. – – see above
- Kennesaw State – – lost to UTEP last week
- Kent State – – the only winless team in the country with a Brothel Defense candidate
- New Mexico St. – – they are 2-7 but will get slaughtered by Texas A&M this week
- Purdue – – see above
- Southern Miss – – they not only lose, but they also lose BIG.
- Temple – – their mediocre defense has collapsed recently
- UAB – – not much to recommend this squad
- Utah St. – – that Brothel Defense candidate has them on the list
- UTEP – – needing double OT to beat Kennesaw St. does not get you off the list
- Wyoming – – they are 2-7 for the season and have several blowouts on the record
NCAA Games of Interest This Week:
Florida Atlantic at Temple – 2.5 (50): Hard to see Temple favored in a game; the loser here will solidify their image as a SHOE Team.
Tulane – 7.5 at Navy (51): Tulane got some love from the CFP Selection Committee last week, but the Middies can be tough at home.
Clemson – 12 at Pitt (52): Both teams are 7-2 but the Panthers have lost their last two in a row.
Penn St. – 29.5 at Purdue (50.5): Penn State needs to continue to impress the Selection Committee and Purdue should give them plenty of opportunity to do so.
Washington St. – 11 at New Mexico (72): Washington St. – – abandoned by the PAC-12 schools – – has posted a record of 8-1 so far this year.
Kansas at BYU – 2.5 (56.5): BYU is undefeated and is the only Big 12 school currently in the Top 12 of the CFP. Kansas is 3-6 overall but can put up plenty of points. This is an important conference game.
Boston College at SMU – 19 (54): Perhaps, SMU is the best team in the ACC this year? You do realize that SMU is part of the ACC, don’t you?
Tennessee at Georgia – 9.5 (47): This is the college Game of the Week. A loss for Georgia will eliminate them from the SEC Championship and will probably knock them out of the at large invitation list for the CFP. The Vols have only 1 conference loss as to Texas and Texas A&M, so they too need this game to keep pace. Latest word is that Georgia RB, Trevor Etienne, will not play this week. Tennessee QB, Nico Iamaleava has been in concussion protocol this week and is questionable. Proceed at your own risk…
Cincy at Iowa St. – 7.5 (53): Both teams threw in clunkers last week; this could be a game where the team that makes the last mistake loses the game.
Utah at Colorado – 10 (44.5): Watch out for the Buffaloes; they are 7-2 with only one loss in the conference. Utah is injury-riddled and lost a heartbreaker last week to its huge rival, BYU. I think the Utes will have a hangover here, so I’ll take Colorado to win and cover at home; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
LSU – 4 at Florida (54): LSU got spanked at home last week by Alabama. It will be interesting to see how they react to that. I do not understand the total Line here at all. Both teams have solid offenses (Florida reportedly will get its QB back in action this week) and neither defense is “lights out”. I think this game goes OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Nebraska at USC – 7.5 (51.5): Time is running out for my “sleeper team” to make it to a bowl game this year.
NFL Commentary
Here is a stat I ran across after the Eagles/Cowboys game last weekend. The Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to trail by 20 or more points in five consecutive home games.
- The Cowboys were down by 32 to the Packers in last year’s wild-card playoff game
- This year they trailed by 25 to the Saints; they trailed by 22 to the Ravens; they trailed by 38 to the Lions; and they trailed by 28 to the Eagles last week.
- ‘Murica’s team …
With the NFL season turning the corner and heading home, I want to suggest a few outstanding awards – – positive and negative to be sure – – for the first half of the NFL season. The first one is for Coach Of the Year:
- Dan Quinn – – Commanders: He and the GM have totally made over last year’s roster and the team is both competitive and fun to watch
- Mike Tomlin – – Steelers: With all the questions surrounding the QB situation there, Tomlin hassled the team to the lead in the AFC North at the halfway point.
- Jonathan Gannon – – Cards: He has the team in the lead in the NGFC West and the Cards have not lost in division games yet; everyone else has at least 1 division loss.
And of course, we should think about the Not-so-good Coach of the Year ignoring those coaches who have already been fired:
- Matt Eberflus – – Bears: The Bears are 4-5 which looks good until you see that they are winless on the road, and they have yet to play against any of their strong division opponents. This season could go south quickly…
- Brian Daboll – – Giants: the Giants are 2-8 and the only “energy” on the sidelines comes from Daboll when he is cursing out an official over a call he disagrees with.
- Antonio Pierce – – Raiders: He was supposed to be a players’ coach who had the guys ready to walk through fire for him. Let’s just say that seems not to be the case.
- Doug Pederson – – Jags: He was supposed to be the guy to make Trevor Lawrence into a super-star. ‘Nuff said…
Now consider the teams that have Most Over-Performed expectations:
- Washington Commanders: They were a disorganized and dispirited bunch last year and this year they are probably going to make the playoffs – – and have a shot to win their division.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: I put them as a distant second here because even with the QB questions facing the team, no one really expected to see the Steelers at the bottom rung in their division. They have overachieved to be sure, but not by as much as the Commanders.
So, which teams have Most-Under-Performed expectations:
- Dallas Cowboys: Remember, they were all-in for the Super Bowl in 2024. Yeah, right…
- NY Jets: With a healthy Aaron Rodgers (stay tuned) they were supposed to present a serious challenge to the Bills in the AFC East. At 3-7, the Jets are 5 full games behind the Bills and have already lost 2 division games.
- Cincy Bengals: The record is 4-6 but it is a miserable 1-4 at home. Yuck.
Consider the players who have Most Exceeded Expectations so far in 2024:
- Jayden Daniels: Yes, he was the overall #2 pick in last year’s Draft, but did anyone expect him to be this good this quickly?
- Russell Wilson: He was portrayed as “washed up” after the Broncos released him and people wondered why the Steelers brought him in.
- Sam Darnold: He has led the Vikes to a 7-2 record; he is completing 69% of his passes and has thrown for 238 yards per game this season.
And of course, the players who have Most Failed to Meet Expectations:
- Aaron Rodgers: The Jets average only 17.7 points per game with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The Jets’ record is 3-7; at this point last hear, the Jets had 4 wins with Zack Wilson and his band of merry men playing QB.
- Patrick Mahomes: There is a surprise. Yes, the Chiefs are undefeated at 9-0 but Mahomes has only averaged 245 yards per game passing which is not that much better than Sam Darnold (see above). Also, like Darnold, Mahomes completes 69% of his passes. Would you have believed me if I had forecast that back in August?
Some comments on games from last week:
Saints 20 Falcons 17: If you look at the stats, you will be sure the Falcons won the game. They outgained the Saints by 103 yards and held the ball for just over 35 minutes in the game. They ran 73 plays to the Saints 52 plays. How did this happen? The Falcons missed 3 field goals in the game including one in the last 5 minutes that would have tied the game.
Niners 23 Bucs 20: Speaking of missed field goals, the Niners missed 3 field goals in the first 55 minutes of the game and then made one to take the lead with 40 seconds left. There had to be some sweaty palms on the Niners’ sideline as the team lined up for that one.
Chiefs 16 Broncos 14: And how did this game end? The Broncos set up for a chip shot field goal that would give the Chiefs their first loss in 2024. Except, the Chiefs blocked the try and came away with another win.
Cards 31 Jets 6: Yes, it was as bad as it looks; the Jets were shut out in the second half and the offense only gained 207 yards in the game. However, the defense was also a no-show for the Jets; here is Kyler Murray’s stat line:
- 22 of 24 for 266 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs
Eagles 34 Cowboys 6: The Eagles offense made a rout of the game in the second half, but it was the Eagles’ defense that caught my attention. The cowboys’ total Offense for the game was 146 yards and only 49 yards passing. Moreover, the defense created 5 turnovers.
Games This Week:
Four teams have BYE Weeks this time around:
- Bucs: When you lose both of your top WRs for lengthy periods of time, things get pretty bleak. The Bucs can use some time off.
- Cards: They have won 4 in a row and lead the NFC West. This should be an upbeat time in Arizona.
- Giants: I am not sure much of anything is going to right the ship there; fans should start paying close attention to college football and thinking about Draft position.
- Panthers: The team is on a two-game winning streak and has already won more games in 2024 than it did in 2023. Hoo-ray!
Last night the Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18. Just to carry forward the kicking woes evident last year, Eagles’ kicker Jake Elliott missed two field goals and missed an extra point in the game. It did not matter in the end because Saquon Barkley ran for 146 yards and 2 TDs in the game and the Eagles converted 9 of 16 third-down situations.
Packers – 5.5 at Bears (40.5): The Total Line opened at 44 points, so this represents a significant drop during the week. The Packers need this game to stay in the running for the division title. I suspect this could be the start of a tailspin for the Bears.
Browns – 1 at Saints (44): Woof! This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. These are two teams going nowhere in a meaningless inter-conference contest. The only marginally interesting angle here is that it is a “revenge game” for Jameis Winston as he returns to play the Saints. Feel free to ignore this one.
Rams – 5 at Pats (43,5): The Rams are still relevant in the NFC West but that is a long journey for them to play an early time slot game. Drake Maye has been showing some positive potential recently for the Pats.
Ravens – 3 at Steelers (48): This is my runner-up for the Game of the Week. The winner here will be in first place in the AFC North on Sunday night. The Steelers have a good defense, but the Ravens can score on anyone. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense is only one step away from being a serious liability. I think this is a scoring-fest; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Raiders at Dolphins – 7 (44): This game has Dog-Breath potential; the teams combine to bring a record of 5-13 to the field. However, the Dolphins might have some breath left in them now that they have most of their starters back from injury. Check out this game in the Money Line Parlays below.
Jags at Lions – 14 (47) The Total Line opened here at 51 points, so this is another significant line move during the week. The Jags just lost two in a row at home and now must go and play one of the top teams in the NFC on the road. I do not bet double-digit spreads in the NFL, but this one smells like a disaster for the Jags.
Vikes – 6 at Titans (39.5): this is an important game for the Vikes as they are a game behind the Lions in the NFC North; for the Titans it is just another game on the schedule.
Seahawks at Niners – 6.5 (48): This is a division game where the current division leader is only a game-and-a-half ahead of the last place team in the division. The Niners are getting people back off IR and the Seahawks’ defense is very porous.
Falcons at Broncos – 2 (44): The spread opened with the falcons favored by 2 points but the line has reversed as the week went on. The Broncos have the better defense, and the Falcons have the better offense here. Po-TAY-toe and Po-TAH-toe…
Chiefs at Bills – 2 (46): This is the Game of the Week matching up two division leaders and a combined record of 17-2. Just sit back with some tasty snacks and watch this game because it will be a good one.
Colts at Jets – 4 (43): This one also got some consideration as a Dog-Breath game. The Jets lost last week, and the Colts have lost three in a row. See above for why the Jets have been “disappointing this year” and then recognize that the Colts will be starting Anthony Richardson at QB. If you think about betting on this game, consider a lottery ticket as an alternative gambling strategy.
(Sun Nite) Bengals at Chargers – 1 (47): The Chargers trail the Chiefs by 3 games and will know the result of the Chiefs/Bills game at kickoff time. The Bengals have already lost 6 games this year and may have to win out to make the playoffs in the AFC. I smell another offensive explosion game here; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Mon Nite) Texans – 7 at Cowboys (42): Can the Cowboys find a way to trail by 20 or more points again in this home game? (See above) The Texans have lost two games in a row but still lead their division by 2 full games; the Cowboys have lost 4 in a row and have looked overmatched in all of them.
So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:
- Colorado – 10 over Utah
- LSU/Florida OVER 54
- Bengals/Chargers OVER 47
- Ravens/Steelers OVER 48
And some Money Line parlays just for fun:
- Dolphins @ minus-340
- Niners @ minus-280
- Packers @ minus-240 $100 wager to win $149
And …
- Vikes @ minus-250
- Broncos @ minus 125 $100 wager to win $152
And …
- Colorado @ minus-400
- Memphis @ minus-700
- Washington St. @ minus-420
- Clemson @ minis -440 $100 wager to win $117
Finally, words of wisdom from Vince Lombardi:
“Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all the time thing. You don’t win once in a while… you don’t do things right once in a while… you do them right all the time. Winning is habit.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………