Football Friday 11/1/24

It has been an unusual end-of-summer/start-of-autumn here in Curmudgeon Central with travel commitments ranging from Namibia/South Africa to Hawaii to New York to Philly and healthcare situations involving my long-suffering wife making me a “caregiver” – – a role I am not accustomed to at all.  All of that has precluded my having the time to follow football nearly as closely as I have done in previous years; that is the reason for the lack of Football Fridays to date.  Looking at the rest of the football season, there will be one weekend spent at sportsbooks with the “Las Vegas Crowd” and there will be a visit from the Dublin part of the family at Christmas.  I should be able to work around those events at least to some extent meaning:

• Football Fridays are back!

So, let me begin by catching up on the Linfield University Wildcats and their pursuit of another football season with a record above .500; they have done that every season since 1956 save for 2020 when their football season was cancelled due to COVID.  I am happy to announce:

• The Wildcats’ record in 2024 is 6-1 and since they play a 10-game schedule, they have indeed achieved a record above .500 for yet another year.

Linfield plays in the Northwest Conference; the champion of that conference gets an invitation to the Division III playoffs.  Linfield is 4-0 in Northwest conference games and has dominated those 4 opponents to the tune of 230 points to 34 points.  This week the Wildcats are on the road to play Pacific University in Forest Grove, OR.  The Boxers bring a 3-4 record to the contest.  Go Wildcats!

I shall also check on my previously identified “sleeper team” in Division 1-A college football – – the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  As of this morning the Huskers ate 5-3 with two of those losses coming at the hands of perennial powerhouse Ohio State and the team that is probably the biggest surprise in college football, Indiana.  To achieve bowl-eligibility, Nebraska needs to find a win in one of their last four games which are:

• Vs. UCLA
• At USC
• Vs. Wisconsin
• At Iowa.

Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Having mentioned Indiana above, let me say why they are probably the most surprising team in college football this year.  [Aside:  I know Vandy fans will claim this label for their team; their arguments are valid; hence, my label for Indiana as “probably the most surprising” …]  The Hoosiers’ recent role in Big-10 football has been to be a punching bag; the last time Indiana won the Big-10 was in 1967.  So far in 2024:

• Indiana is 8-0
• Indiana has outscored opponents 382 – 113.
• Indiana is second in the country in scoring offense
• Indiana is seventh in the country in scoring defense

The next three weeks will be challenging for Indiana:

• At Michigan State – – Sparty is 3-1 at home this year
• Vs. Michigan
• At Ohio State – – The Buckeyes are 5-0 at home this year.

If I have counted correctly, there are 8 undefeated teams left in Division 1-A:

1. Army – – Ranked 21^st with a 7-0 record
2. BYU – – Ranked 9^th with a record of 8-0
3. Indiana – – Ranked 13^th with a record of 8-0
4. Iowa St. – – Ranked 11^th with a record of 7-0
5. Miami – – Ranked 5^th with a record of 8-0
6. Oregon – – Ranked 1^st with a record of 8-0
7. Penn St. – – Ranked 3^rd with a record of 7-0
8. Pitt – – Ranked 18^th with a record of 7-0

I know that Deion Sanders is a controversy magnet, and I recognize that he is at least part huckster in his dealings with the public.  But you have to give him his due; he has been able to assemble and coach up a competent football team that was embarrassingly bad only two seasons ago.  The Buffaloes are 6-2 this year (bowl-eligible before Halloween) and they are 3-1 on the road.  Colorado has 4 games left and only one opponent (Texas Tech) has a winning record as of today.  It is possible – not likely but possible – that Colorado could finish with a 10-2 record after going 1-11 just two years ago.

When I said Indiana – – or maybe Vandy – – was the biggest surprise team in the country this year, I was focused on “positive surprises”.  Since that is not the norm here in Curmudgeon Central, let me take a moment and identify the biggest negative surprise for 2024 to date:

• The Florida State Seminoles

This is a blueblood program going back to the days of Bobby Bowden.  In the two seasons leading up to this one, the Seminoles’ combined record was 23-4.  As of this morning, Florida State carries a 1-7 record, and the one victory was over Cal by the score of 14-9.

• The Seminoles rank 131^st in the country in Total Offense
• The Seminoles rank 81^st in the country in Total Defense
• The Seminoles rank 112^th in the country in Sacks Allowed
• The Seminoles rank 81^st in the country in Penalties Assessed

Here are the last 4 games of the season for Florida State:

• Vs. UNC – – Tar Heels are 4-4 on the season – – a winnable game?
• At Notre Dame – – Irish are ranked #8 in the country
• Vs. Charleston Southern – – Lose this home game and beware of torches and pitchforks
• Vs. Florida – – Call this one the Underachievement Bowl

Here is an observation by Bobby Bowden that might apply to this year’s Seminoles’ team:

“To have the kind of year you want to have, something has to happen that you can’t explain why it happened. Something has to happen that you can’t coach.”

Let me review some of last week’s games:

Texas A&M 38  LSU 23:  The Aggies rallied in the second half to get this win.  The Aggies are undefeated in SEC games and lead the conference as of today.  They have a clear shot to the SEC Championship Game and a slot in the expanded CFP.  The Aggies’ final game of the season is on Nov 30^th when they host the Texas Longhorns.  Circle that game on your calendar…

Iowa 40  Northwestern 14:  That is the third time this year that Iowa has scored exactly 40 points in a game.  In recent years, it might have taken Iowa 12 quarters of football to amass 40 points.

Ohio St. 21  Nebraska 17:  The Buckeyes had to come from behind to win this one over my “sleeper team” for 2024…

Pitt 41  Syracuse 13:  Undefeated Pitt was a measly 3-9 last year so this is quite the turnaround.  An oddity in this game is that the Panthers had three Pick-Sixes; you don’t see that very often.

Alabama 34  Missouri 0:  This game was never close.  What started out as a promising season for Mizzou came up short last week.  That is their second conference loss putting 5 teams ahead of them in the SEC with fewer losses plus Alabama which owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Texas 27  Vandy 24:  Back in August, this looked almost like a BYE Week for the Longhorns, but they had to fight to win this battle.  I had not seen Vandy QB, Diego Pavia, play before last week; he has an unusual style that is very effective; if you get the chance to see Vandy play, he is worth watching.

Baylor 38  Oklahoma St. 28:  Believe it or not, Oklahoma St, is 0-5 in conference games.  Back in August there were folks who thought they were in the upper echelon of the conference teams.  As of today, the Cowboys are the only team in the Big 12 without a conference win.

Looking at the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award for 2024 – – the college defense that gets scored upon most easily – – here are the “Top 3”:

• Ball State gives up 40.4 points per game
• Utah State gives up 41.5 points per game
• Kent State gives up 46.6 points per game

That list is a sad “State” of affairs…  Sorry!

Next week, I will begin to winnow the list for my imaginary SHOE Tournament which – if ever implemented – would determine the worst team of the year by play on the field.  This week I only have a few preliminary observations:

• Kent State is the nation’s last winless team and is “leading” the pack for the Brothel Defense Award.  They are a heavy favorite to make the Tournament.
• Southern Miss not only loses; they lose big time.  If you only look at games against Division 1-A opponents, they lose by an average of 26 points per game.
• Kennesaw St. won its first game of the year last week beating previously unbeaten Liberty.  But they are still in “Tournament contention”.  That is the first time Kennesaw St. beat a Division 1-A team in school history.

 

NCAA Games of Interest this Week:

 

(Fri Nite) San Diego St at Boise St – 23.5 (57):  Boise St. looks as if it will be the Group of 5 entry into the CFP this year – – but they need to run the table…

Vandy at Auburn – 7 (48):  Let me be sure I understand this.  Vandy beat Alabama on the road and Vandy lost to Texas by a field goal last week.  And now Auburn is a full touchdown favorite this week …

Indiana – 8 at Michigan St (52):  The Hoosier Express keeps on keeping on …

UNC – 2 at Florida St. (48):  With a loss here, the Seminoles will be 1-8 and will be on the watch list for the SHOE Tournament.

Florida vs. Georgia – 16 (52.2):  The Gators need to find two more wins to become bowl-eligible.  This is not one of them.

Pitt at SMU – 7 (58):  The Panthers are undefeated so far in 2024 and are a full touchdown underdog here.

Navy – 11 at Rice (50):  Navy lost its first game of the year last week to Notre Dame.  Rice is 2-6 on the season and just fired their coach.  Hi ho …

UCLA at Nebraska – 6.5 (40):  My “sleeper team” is favored at home.  Go Huskers!

Oregon – 14 at Michigan (46):  The Ducks are ranked #1 in the country.  The Wolverines are 5-1 at home.  I gave this game consideration as the College Game of the Week.

Texas A&M – 3 at South Carolina (44):  A let-down game for the Aggies after beating LSU …?

Ohio St. – 3.5 at Penn St (45):  This is the College Game of the Week.  Ohio St is ranked #4 in the country and Penn St is ranked #3.

Wisconsin at Iowa – 3 (40):  This is not your father’s Iowa football team; Iowa has scored 40 points in three games so far this year (see above).  I have to take this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

As the NFL trade deadline approaches, there is some movement where playoff-hopeful teams try to add a piece or two to their rosters for a final push.  Bottom-dwellers hope to extract draft capital from those top teams in order to rebuild.  And then, there is this trade:

• Ravens get WR Diontae Johnson plus a 6tt round pick from Panthers
• Panthers get a 5^th round pick.

The Panthers are a bad team; their 6^th round pick is going to be at or near the top of Round 6.  Meanwhile, the Ravens are a top team and their 5^th round pick is going to be near the bottom of Round 5.  Just focus on that part of the trade; it is pretty much a “pick swap” that may only be separated by 3-5 picks deep into the third day of the draft.  From that perspective, why did the Panthers also give up their best WR in the deal?

I don’t know who the architect of the roster is in Carolina and who is pulling the strings, but that trade is a total mystery unless Johnson was such a humongous pain in the ass that it will be a benefit to the Panthers to have him reporting to work somewhere else.

The Panthers say they are going to start Bryce Young again this week and they plan to continue to develop him as their QB.  Good for them; I wish them well; Bryce Young seems like a nice person.  But someone must be there to catch the passes he throws and with Adam Thielen still on IR, here are the WRs on the Panthers’ roster:

1. Jalen Coker – – Rookie – – Holy Cross
2. Xavier Legette – – Rookie – – South Carolina
3. Jonathan Mingo – – Second year – – Ole Miss
4. David Moore – – Sixth year – – East Central (OK)

Surely you have seen the miraculous Hail Mary pass that ended the Commanders/Bears game last week.  I have four things to say about that play and that game outcome:

1. The play never should have happened.  The Bears gave away about 15 yards worth of real estate with 6 seconds on the clock on the previous snap allowing the Hail Mary play to be called in the first place.  Instead of guarding the sidelines to keep the clock running, the Bears dropped in coverage.  Bad defensive play calling!
2. The Commanders have had just about everything go right for them this year.  They are a good team and are seemingly in the good graces of the football gods.  Do NOT underestimate the power of such a combination.
3. I believe the Commanders will win the NFC East.
4. If anyone still believes that Jayden Daniels is a “work in progress” they need to rethink that position.

Nick Chubb returned for the Browns and gained 52 yards on 16 carries.  Not eye-popping numbers but given the severity of the knee injury that has kept him off the field for about a year, that was a good showing.  The Ravens lost to the Browns last week and their defensive secondary played terribly.  Far too many Browns’ receivers were running free with 5 yards of separation; in those situations where the defenders were around the ball, they tended to get both hands on it and then drop it.

The Cowboys lost to the Niners.  I think the important message there – – in addition to the fact that the Cowboys’ defense was once again not up to the job – – is that the Cowboys’ offense is almost a singularity.  Dak Prescott targeted CeeCee Lamb 17 times in the game; talk about one-dimensional…

The Eagles’ defense showed up en masse again this week.  In the last three games, the team has given up a total of 36 points and 7 of those came on a Pick Six.  With the loss here, the Bengals are now 3 full games behind the Steelers in the AFC North.

The Packers beat the Jags on a last-second field goal.  The Jags gave up 30 points in the game bringing their season total to 224 points.  Only the Panthers are more generous on defense.

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 27-20.  The game turned in the third quarter when Patrick Mahomes threw an interception that was returned to the Chiefs’ 3-yardline.  The Raiders got nothing – – as in nada – – from that possession.  Later when the Chiefs secured a turnover from Raiders’ QB, Gardner Minshew, they promptly scored a TD.  End of message …

The Falcons beat the Bucs last week.  The two teams had been tied atop the NFC South; now the Falcons are in sole possession of first place there.

The Colts stayed within a field goal of the Texans but in the end, it was the Texans that prevailed.  That outcome gives the Texans a 2-game lead in the Division over the Colts with tiebreaker in hand.  Anthony Richardson suffered 5 sacks in the game.

Tua Tagovailoa returned to action last week after sitting out a month to get over his latest concussion.  With him at the helm, the Dolphins kept it close but lost 28-27 after the Cards held the ball for the last five-and-a-half minutes to set up a chip shot field goal to win as time expired.

The Chargers beat the Saints last week.  That win puts the Chargers above .500 and within striking distance of the Broncos for second place in the AFC West.  That loss – – the sixth in a row for the Saints – – leaves them with a 2-6 record which is only one game better than the woebegone Panthers.

Speaking of the Panthers, they lost to the Broncos by 2 TDs last week and saw their defense get pantsed repeatedly by Bo Nix who just may work out as the Broncos’ starter for a long time to come.

The Pats beat the Jets on a late TD that came on a 4^th and goal situation.  Aaron Rodgers and the Jets got the ball back with less than 30 seconds left in the game and never got close to field goal range on the possession.  Here are two important take-aways from the game:

• Both teams are 2-6.
• Both teams are bad enough that 2-6 is representative of their play in 2024

 

Games this Week:

 

There are two teams with BYE Weeks this week:

1. Niners:  They are in a three-way tie for the lead in the NFC West at 4-4 along with the Cards and the Seahawks.  The best news that the Niners can hope for is that with another week of rehab, Christian McCaffrey might be back and ready to go next week.
2. Steelers:  Mike Tomlin’s charges are a surprising 6-2 at this point in the season; only the most rabid fans would have seen that as a realistic target back around Labor Day.

The Jets beat the Texans last night.  I wondered why the Jets were short favorites at home in the game until I saw/heard that the Texans’ top two WRs were out and two of their offensive linemen were either out or doubtful.  The Jets tried their best to hand the game to the Texans but did not succeed.  The Jets committed a roughing the kicker penalty which is a rare occurrence in the NFL AND committed a roughing the long-snapper penalty on a field goal attempt.  But they won so “Fireman Ed” can strut around and pretend that he had something to do with the victory.

 

Pats at Titans – 3 (38):  When I looked at the slate of games and saw this one at the top of the list, I immediately saw “Dog-Breath potential” in the pairing.  However, that designation will go elsewhere notwithstanding these two bad teams who bring a combined record of 3-12 to the kickoff.  The oddsmakers see a low scoring affair which makes sense since neither team excels on offense and both teams have a respectable defense.  Tune in here if you are a fan of punting; there should be plenty of that.

Chargers at Browns – 1 (42):  Jameis Winston is a better QB than DeShaun Watson in 2024 and somehow it took the Browns’ braintrust 7 games to figure that out.  Oh wait; they didn’t figure that out; Watson suffered a season ending injury forcing them to put Winston on the field.  Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers like to run the football; the Browns’ defense is going to make that difficult.  FYI, the Chargers have only allowed 13 points per game to this point in 2024…

Saints – 7 at Panthers (43.5):  Here you are, ladies and gentlemen; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Check out the “Tale of the Tape”:

• Saints are 2-6 and Panthers are 1-7.
• Saints have lost 6 games in a row and Panthers have lost 5 games in a row.
• Panthers are 29^th in the NFL in Total Offense
• Saints are 32^nd in the NFL in Total Defense

Fans in New Orleans and Charlotte viewing areas will have to see this contest on their local stations.  For everyone else who watches NFL football this Sunday, this is an Avert Your Eyes Game.

Dolphins at Bills – 6 (49):  The Dolphins have their QB back in action, but it may be too little too late in 2024.  The Dolphins – – and the Jets – – trail the Bills by 3.5 games in the AFC East.

Cowboys at the Falcons – 3 (50.5):  If you like offenses that move up and down the field with only minor resistance from defenses, this is the game for you.  The Falcons give up 348 yards per game and the Cowboys give up 372 yards per game.  There could be moments in this game where viewers may think they are watching an NBA game…  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Broncos at Ravens – 8 (46.5):  The Ravens lost to the Browns last week and that game exposed the inability of the Ravens’ defense to limit the so-called “chunk-plays”. Here is a statistical oddity:

• The Ravens rank first in the NFL in Rush Defense today.
• The Ravens rank last in the NFL in Pass Defense today

Overall, the Ravens rank 25^th in the NFL in Total Defense this morning, only one slot ahead of the Cowboys’ defense which is certifiably mediocre-at-best.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 5-3 riding a stingy defense that is 3^rd in the NFL as of now.

Raiders at Bengals – 7 (46):  Yes, I also considered this game as a “Dog-Breath” candidate for a moment or two, but the presence of talent such as Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase along with the comedic stylings of Gardner Minshew keeps this game from such a lowly status.  The Bengals are 3-5 but their point differential for the year is only minus-8.

(Sun Nite) Colts at Vikings – 5 (46.5):  With the Texans’ loss last night, the Colts can narrow the Texans’ lead in the AFC South to a half-game if they win here.  The Vikes have lost two games in a row; they sit third in the NFC North and one of the two teams ahead of them must win this weekend.  Big game for both teams…

Commanders – 4 at Giants (44):  The Commanders are on a roll; the Giants are one step away from being a hot mess.  However, historically over the past three of four decades, the Washington team plays poorly in Met Life Stadium no matter what they are calling the venue at the time of the kickoff.  I think the Commanders will break that jinx this week; I like the Commanders to win this one comfortably; I’ll take the Commanders to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”,

Bears at Cards – 1 (44.5):  The spread here opened the week as “Bears – 2”.  Obviously, there had to be a lot of money on the Cards at that number to flip the favorite.  In fact, there is one Internet sportsbook that has the game with the Cards as 2-point favorites this morning.  The Cards’ record is 4-4 but that has them tied for the lead in the NFC West with the Niners and the Seahawks.  In fact, every team in the NFC West has exactly 4 losses as of today so every game means a lot to all the teams there.

Rams – 1 at Seahawks (48):  Here is another game where the favorite has flipped.  The line opened as “Seahawks – 3” and now the Rams are favored.  Just because this game means a lot to both teams, I thought about it as the Game of the Week for a moment or two but then…

Lions – 3 at Packers (47.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-1; the Packers are right behind them at 6-2.  The winner will lead the division on Monday morning.  Here is a situation that might be interesting if not important:

• Here we are in November, and this will be the first time the Lions have played a game outdoors.

Both defenses here rank in the middle of the pack as of today.  The two offenses rank 5^th and 6^th in the NFL as of today but the Packers’ QB, Jordan Love, has a groin injury that might make the Packers have to play Malik Willis.  Should be a good one; I like the Lions to win and cover here unless there is a “weather event” in Green Bay around game time; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Jags at Eagles – 7.5 (45):  The Eagles trail the Commanders by half a game this morning and I think the Commanders are going to win big on Sunday.  That means the Eagles need to win this game.  The Jags are 2-6 and their defense ranks 29^th in the league in both Total Defense and Scoring Defense.  Jags’ coach, Doug Pederson, led the Eagles to a Super Bowl win over the Pats.  If the Jags get blown out here, the Eagles might be responsible for him becoming unemployed.  As the world turns …

(Mon Nite) Bucs at Chiefs – 9 (46):  The Chiefs are cruising; the Bucs find themselves trailing the Falcons by a game in the NFC South.  For the Chiefs, this is a big game because it continues their 7-game winning streak; no matter the outcome, the Chiefs will still be in first place in the Division on Monday morning.  For the Bucs, this game is a bigger deal because they will know the outcome of the Falcons/Cowboys game on Sunday and this game will either be an opportunity to catch up in the standings or an important game to keep pace with their division rival.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Wisconsin/Iowa OVER 40
• Cowboys Falcons OVER 50.2
• Commanders – 4 over Giants
• Lions – 3 over Packers

And here are three Money Line Parlays just for fun:

• Texas A&M @ minus-145
• Georgia @ minus-600     Bet $100 to win $98.

 

• Nebraska @ minus-250
• Navy @ minus-420
• Indiana @ minus-300     Bet $100 to win $131

 

• Commanders @ minus-200
• Eagles @ minus-300     Bet $100 to win $100

Finally, these words from Vince Lombardi:

“I firmly believe that any man’s finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle – victorious.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………