Football Friday – – On Thursday 9/19/24

Since tomorrow (Friday) is another travel day for me, I will once again attempt a truncated Football Friday for this week.  As usual, I will begin with a look at last week’s game for the Linfield Wildcats.  Playing on the road, the Wildcats lost to Wisconsin-Oshkosh by a score of 28-21 giving Linfield a 1-1 record with one more out-of-conference game on the schedule this week.  The Wildcats will host the University of the Redlands on Saturday; the Bulldogs arrive with a record of 0-1 having lost to George Fox University two weeks ago.  Go Wildcats!

Also, I want to track the progress of my previously identified “sleeper team” for 2024 – – the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Last week, Nebraska extended its record to 3-0 with a win over Northern Iowa by a score of 34-3.  This week, the Huskers will take on Illinois.  Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Last week, I referred to an email from a reader pointing out that Temple had 1 TD in two games and 9 turnovers.  The reader asked if any team could match that.  Shortly after the rant was posted I got an email from “the reader in Houston” addressing the “match that” question:

“East Carolina leads the nation with 10 turnovers in two games, but they have scored 8 TDs in those two games, going 2-0.

“They had 6 turnovers (3 fumbles and 3 INTs) vs. Norfolk State, but won 42-3.

“In their second game, QB Jake Garcia threw 4 more INTs, but ECU prevailed over ODU, 20-14.

“The bad news is that Jake leads the country with 7 INTs (FYI – three more than Temple’s Forrest Brock), but the good news is that Jake is averaging 295.5 yards passing per game.

“In addition to his seven INTs, he has fumbled twice, therefore his nine TOs equals that of the entire Temple team after two games.”

When it comes to taking a deep dive into sports stats or sports history, “the reader in Houston” is a National Treasure…

One of the traditions of Football Friday is the end-of-season identification of The SHOE Tournament field.  It is a fanciful way to imagine determining the worst team in the country with play on the field.  I select 8 BAD teams and seed them in brackets.  The loser in each game would have to play on until there is one ultimate loser – – The SHOE Team.  “SHOE” is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.

It is far too early to consider what teams might be labeled as bad enough for consideration in the imaginary tournament.  But it is not too early for the SHOE Selection Committee – – namely me – – to make a few casual observations after 3 weeks of college football.

Here are four teams that have significantly underperformed expectations for 2024.  These teams may not be among the worst in the country when Thanksgiving rolls around, but they are hugely disappointing at this point in the season:

1. Florida State:  I know that pre-season rankings are flimsy at best, but the Seminoles were ranked #10 in the country and their record today is 0-3.  Again, pre-season rankings are not probative, but none of the three losses came against teams ranked in the Top 25.
2. Florida:  Is there something in the water in Northern Florida that is infecting college football players?  Last week, the Gators hosted Texas A&M and lost 33-20.  But the game was not that close; the Aggies outgained the Gators by 187 yards and the Gators surrendered 310 yards on the ground.  Florida’s record is 1-2, but that win was over Division 1-AA Samford and the two losses have been bad ones.
3. Mississippi State:  I doubt anyone outside the nuclear families of the coaches and players there expected the Bulldogs to be in the CFP come December.  However, they paid Toledo – – a MAC team – – more than $1M to visit Starkville for a cupcake game and that backfired badly.  Toledo not only won the game, they won the game by 24 points.
4. Notre Dame:  When you lose at home to a MAC team it is bad enough.  When you are Notre Dame, and you lose at home to a MAC team it is cataclysmic.

Those four teams have disappointed their fans because there was some expectation of competency when the season began.  Here are three teams that have just plain stunk so far in 2024:

1. Kent State:  The record is 0-3 but that does not begin to tell the tale.  They lost the opener to Pitt by 31 points; then, they lost at home to Division 1-AA St. Francis (PA); last week, they lost to Tennessee 71-0.  The cumulative score in the three losses is Opponents 149  Kent State 41.
2. Temple:  The record is 0-3 and the defense is lacking.  Granted, they have not lost to a Division 1-AA school but they have given up 134 points in those 3 games; their “best” defensive showing was against Navy where they gave up “only” 38 points.
3. Wyoming:  The record is 0-3 and the losses have been embarrassing.  Arizona State and BYU dominated the Cowboys; in between those shellackings, Wyoming lost at home to Division 1-AA Idaho.  These are not fun times in Laramie …

As colleges move to find ways to pay players and remain competitive, here is an unanticipated consequence of the move to do so.  For the record, I am not opposed to players sharing in the revenues generated by the collegiate revenue sports; but I don’t think too many folks envisioned this headline to a report at CBSSports.com:

• “Tennessee set to add 10% ‘talent fee’ to tickets to fund plan for revenue sharing with players”

The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again…

Texas QB, Quinn Ewers had to leave the game last week with an injury and he will not be available this week against La-Monroe making way for Arch Manning to get his first start as a Longhorn.  Absent that situation, this is not particularly a game of interest but with “Manning 3.0” playing QB, you can be sure that lots of eyeballs will be on the game and the score.

College football – unfortunately – stages some mismatched games.  Last week Tennessee was a 49.5-point favorite over Kent State and covered easily after the score at halftime was 65-0.  This week we have some monstrous spreads too:

• Marshall at Ohio State – 40 (52)
• Kent State at Penn State – 48.5 (55.5)
• Akron at S. Carolina – 29 (45)
• Charlotte at Indiana – 29 (45)
• Ga Southern at Ole Miss – 35 (66.5)
• La-Monroe at Texas – 44.5 (53)

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

(Fri Nite) Illinois at Nebraska – 8 (43):  My “sleeper team” is favored to start the season at 4-0…

Kansas at W. Virginia – 2.5 (56):  Kansas was ranked in the Top 25 pre-season but has come out of the gate with a 1-2 record including a home loss to UNLV.

Cal at Florida State – 3 (44):  I read last week that Mike Norvell’s buyout at Florida State was $65M.  If the Seminoles lose here and start out at 0-4, the boosters just might try to pony up that amount.

TCU – 3 at SMU (59):  These schools are less than 50 miles apart; big rivalry game…

Tennessee – 7 at Oklahoma (57):  The Sooners are 3-0 and ranked 15^th in the country but they have not beaten anyone of note.  Tennessee is ranked 6^th in the country, and they too have yet to beat anyone of note.   Call this the College Game of the Week.

USC – 5 at Michigan (46):  Both teams are ranked as of this week.  If Michigan loses again at home, they will likely drop out of the rankings…

Florida – 6 at Mississippi State (56):  These were two of the four “disappointing teams” above…

Miami (OH) at Notre Dame – 28 (44):  If the Irish lose another home game to a MAC team this year, Touchdown Jesus will indeed weep …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

For what it’s worth, the Bears wore bright orange jerseys last week in their game against the Texans.  When I tuned in, I thought I was watching a rehearsal for a scene in The Longest Yard.

The Carolina Panthers were the worst team in the NFL last year; in their first two games this year, the Panthers scored a total of 13 points.  They have decided to bench Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton at QB and the one thing to consider here is that the bar is awfully low for Dalton to appear to be an improvement.  Last week Bryce Young threw 26 passes and gained 84 yards.  Panthers’ head coach Dave Canales might begin to worry about his job; owner David Tepper has fired 3 head coaches in his tenure as Panthers’ owner and all have come during the season…

The Ravens and the Bengals are both in the AFC North and both teams figured to be fighting for the top spot in that division.  Both stumbled at the start of the season; both the Ravens and Bengals are 0-2.  Maybe you can forgive one loss to each team since they both lost to the reigning Super Bowl champs – – KC.  Neither team wanted to start 0-2 but they can take some solace in the fact that the Steelers lead the division at this point with a 2-0 record having scored a total of one TD in those two victories.  In addition, the schedule for the Bengals sets up well with the next four games being:

• Vs. Commanders
• At Panthers
• Vs. Ravens
• At Giants

That looks to me to be a 3-3 or a 4-2 start for the Bengals.

The schedule for the Ravens sets up as:

• At Cowboys
• Vs. Bills
• At Bengals
• Vs. Commanders

That is not a “Murderer’s Row” schedule for the Ravens coming up, but it is a tad more difficult than the one facing the Bengals.

The Broncos have also started off 0-2; they generated some pre-season hype with the narrative being that Sean Payton was going to mold Bo Nix into “Drew Brees 2.0”.  Well, the molding clay still needs a ton of work.  Let me quote some stats for you:

• Bo Nix is 11-of-36 for 212 and 4 picks on passes more than five (!) yards downfield. His 30.6% completion rate on such passes is the lowest in the league by six percent AND the worst figure in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years.
• [Nix is] averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt and has completed only five passes of more than 10 air yards.
• The Broncos have turned the ball over five times in the first two games.

Here is the Broncos’ upcoming schedule:

• At Bucs
• At Jets
• Vs. Raiders
• Vs. Chargers

Maybe the Broncos will be favored at home against the Raiders – – we’ll see – – but they will definitely be underdogs in the other three games coming up.

One more team that has started the season 0-2 who also has a daunting schedule coming up is the Jax Jags.  The offense has been hardly offensive so far in 2024 and here is the upcoming schedule:

• At Bills
• At Texans
• Vs. Colts
• At Bears

The Jags need to win that home game and at least one other road game or the season will be off the rails…

In games last week:

Saints 44  Cowboys 19:  The Saints scored at will in the game; the Cowboys could not contain either the run game or the passing game and the Cowboys’ tackling was horrendous.  Making things worse, the Cowboys got to the Red Zone 3 times and scored zero TDs on those possessions.

Bucs 20  Lions 16:  According to NFL.com:

“During their win over the Lions, the Bucs got outgained by 247 yards and the Lions had five more sacks than Tampa Bay. That makes the Bucs just the second team since 1970 to win a game where they were outgained by at least 200 yards while also having five fewer sacks than the other team. The only other time that’s happened came in 1987 when the Oilers beat the Bengals.”

• Now you know…

The Bucs’ defense scored two interceptions off Jared Goff and made two fourth-down stops in the final two minutes of the game.  The Lions just couldn’t score in the Red Zone; They got there 7 times, and they were only able to score 1 touchdown. In the final 3 minutes of the game, the Lions ran 15 offensive plays in Tampa Bay territory and got nothing to show for it.

Jets 24  Titans 17:  The Titans seem destined to make big mistakes this year. In Week 1, they had a blocked punt and an inexplicable turnover by QB Will Levis – – and then, both those things happened again against the Jets in Week 2. The blocked punt led to a Jets field goal while the bizarre fumble by Levis happened inside the Jets’ 10-yard line. Wow !

Vikes 23  Niners 17:  Lots of pundits had the Vikes as their “Upset Pick of the Week” and it happened.  With the 49ers trailing in the second half, Brock Purdy turned the ball over on two consecutive possessions – – a lost fumble followed by an interception. That INT led to a 10-yard touchdown drive that iced the win for Minnesota. Although Purdy put up impressive numbers — he threw for 319 yards – he was also sacked six times. Justin Jefferson caught a 97-yard TD pass from Sam Darnold and the Vikes also blocked a punt in the game. Seems to me that the Vikes’ offensive system and coaching (Kevin O’Connell) must be doing something right because Sam Darnold is looking like a bona fide starting QB at the NFL level.   In his first 6 years in the NFL, Darnold was 21-35-0 as a starter and never looked as if he belonged as a starter at the NFL level; so far this year, he has been just fine.  Darnold wound up 17 for 26 for 268 yards against the Niners.

Seahawks 23  Pats 20 (OT):  Geno Smith threw the ball 44 times in this game  Hey, if it is working, why stop it?  Smith threw for 327 yards and WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 12 passes for 117 yards.  The Patriots were able to run the ball — they totaled 185 yards on the ground — and the defense played reasonably well, but they just didn’t get enough help from the passing game.

Packers 16  Colts 10:  Anthony Richardson struggled with accuracy here.  Richardson completed only 50% of his passes (17 of 34), and he threw 3 INTs and 2 of them came on plays in Green Bay territory. Moreover, the Colts’ defense simply could not stop the Packers’ running game; they gave up 261 yards on the ground.  The Colts are now 0-2 and will need to get things straight on both offense and defense.  With Jordan Love sidelined, the Packers turned to Josh Jacobs to carry the offense, and Jacobs gashed the Colts for 151 yards in the game. Malik Willis took over for Love at QB and probably played as well or better than Packers’ fans anticipated going 12 of 14 for 122 yards and a TD.

Chargers 26  Panthers 3:  I said last week that the Chargers were going to run the ball and then run it some more against the Panthers.  For the second straight week, the Chargers rushing attack steamrolled its opponent, and for the second straight week, it led to a Los Angeles win. The Chargers totaled 219 yards on the ground, and most of that came from JK Dobbins who carried the ball 17 times for 131 yards.   The Chargers ran the ball 44 times for 219 yards. The game was a mess from start to finish on both offense and defense for the Panthers. The offense didn’t get a first down until there were only four minutes left in the half and the offense did not convert any third-down attempts in the entire game.  The Panthers may be worse than last year; in two games they have scored one touchdown, and they’ve converted only 2 of 22 third-down tries. Bryce Young’s longest completion on Sunday went 12 yards.

Browns 18 Jags 13:    The Browns beat up Trevor Lawrence; they sacked him four times, and only allowed him to complete less than 50% of his passes.  The Jags seemed to forget how to play offense every time they got to the Red Zone with just one touchdown on four trips there.  The Jags had two different drives where they got down to the Browns’ two-yard line and both drives ended with a field goal.

Commanders 21 Giants 18 Here is more info courtesy of NFL.com:

“In their 21-18 loss to the Commanders, the Giants became the first team in NFL history to lose a game in regulation after scoring three touchdowns and holding their opponent to zero touchdowns.”

The pathetic Giants’ kicking game threw shade on an impressive performance by the Giants’ WR, Malik Nabers, who had 10 catches for 127 yards and a TD. For the Commanders, Brian Robinson, Jr. ran for 133 yards on 17 carries. The Commanders’ ability to run the ball was a big reason why they were able to score on every possession they had in the game with the exception of a kneel down before halftime.

Cards 41 Rams 10:   The Rams were missing two starters on the offensive line this week and it showed. The O-Line was dominated by the Cardinals’ defense which sacked Matthew Stafford 5 times. The Cards’ offense was hitting on all cylinders too; the Rams were down 21-0 before they got their first first-down. The big news for Arizona is that Marvin Harrison Jr. notched his first catch of the season. The rookie receiver had 4 receptions for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Cardinals also rushed for 231 yards in the game

Steelers 13 Broncos 6:  The Broncos had 11 possessions and seven of those ended with a three-and-out or an interception.  Denver’s running backs combined for just 39 yards on 15 carries, which left things up to Bo Nix to win this game and that’s not what you want when you have a rookie QB facing the Steelers defense. The Steelers had six punts and a field goal in their seven second-half possessions and still won the game…

Raiders 26 Ravens 23:   In a big fourth quarter comeback here Gardner Minshew clearly outplayed Lamar Jackson; Minshew was en fuego in the fourth quarter. He threw for 126 yards and a TD during the final frame The Raiders defense also came up big at the end of the game by holding the Ravens scoreless on their final three offensive possessions of the game.   On defense, the Raiders’ Maxx Crosby and Robert Spillane were monsters.  And watching the game a significant question came to mind for which I have no answer:

• How the Hell did Brock Bowers last until the thirteenth pick in last year’s Draft?

Chiefs 26 Bengals 25:   Joe Burrow threw for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also lost a fumble that the Chiefs returned for a score in the fourth quarter. The Bengals defense played well until S, Daijahn Anthony bailed the Chiefs out on fourth-and-16 by getting called for pass interference late in the 4^th quarter. Bengals’ kicker, Evan McPherson, had a big game with four field goals, but he also missed an extra point in the second half that was the difference in the score.

Texans 19  Bears 13:  Caleb Williams was under significant pressure nearly every time he dropped back to pass, and that pressure led to 2 INTs and resulted in 7 sacks. Despite the offensive problems, the Bears were able to stay in this game thanks to a strong showing by the Bears’ defense that held the Texans to a field goal in the second half.

Bills 31  Dolphins 10:   Tua Tagovailoa threw three INTs and JaMarcus Ingram turned one of them into a Pick-Six in the second half.  In addition to the turnovers, the Dolphins offense also failed on 4 fourth-down conversions, and they only got 1 TD out of 4 visits to the Red Zone.  The Dolphins defense held the Bills to under 250 yards, it was not enough.

 

Games This Week:

 

(Thurs Nite) Pats at Jets – 6 (38):  Pats will have to be lots better on offense this week – – unless the Jets’ defense does not show up as happened on Week 1…

Chargers – 2.5 at Steelers (36):  I agree this should be a low-scoring defensive struggle, but I think the Chargers are the better team here.  I expect this line will shrink later in the week.

Bears at Colts – 1 (43):  The Colts need this game to avoid an 0-3 start.  I expect the Bears’ defense to cause Anthony Richardson significant agita on Sunday.  This is the runner-up for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week

Texans – 2 at Vikes (46):  Both teams are undefeated, and both have looked very good so far in 2024.  Call this one the Game of the Week.

Giants at Browns – 6.5 (38.5):  The Giants looked offensively competent last week against the Commanders; let’s see if they can do anything similar against the Cleveland defense…

Eagles at Saints – 2 (49.5):  If the Eagles braintrust comes up with brain cramps this week similar to the ones encountered last week, they will lose by 3 TDs.

Broncos at Bucs – 6.5 (40):  Looks like another tough defense to confront the Broncos and rookie QB, Bo Nix…

Packers at Titans – 2 (37):  Malik Willis versus Will Levis at QB.  Not an appetizing choice…  I’ll call this the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Panthers at Raiders – 5 (40):  Unless the Raiders are over-confident after taking down the Ravens in Baltimore last week, they should win easily here.

Dolphins at Seahawks – 5 (41):  In terms of distance, this is the longest road trip in the NFL just under 2750 miles.

Lions – 2.5 at Cards (52):  I gave this one serious consideration as the Game of the Week.

Ravens at Cowboys – 1 (48):  Both teams lost last week.  The Ravens loss was disheartening; the Cowboys’ loss was humiliating.

Niners – 7 at Rams (44.5):  The Rams are victims of an injury plague; the Niners defense should feast on them here.

(Sun Nite) Chiefs -3.5 at Falcons (46.5):  The Chiefs have won two nail-biters to start the 2024 season.  The Falcons will need to play better here than they have shown in Games 1 & 2.

(Mon Nite Early Game) Jags at Bills – 5 (45):  I know it is early in the season, but this feels like an important game for the Jags.

(Mon Nite Late Game) Commanders at Bengals – 7.5 (47):  The Commanders’ O-Line might have serious problems with the Bengals’ defense – – and this is a must-win for the Bengals.

Finally, words from Vince Lombardi:

“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………