Worst To First … And Vice-Versa

One of the logical consequences of the NFL’s aspiration to parity is that teams that finish last in their division in one season can turn around and win that same division in the subsequent season.  The shorthand for this is “Worst to first”; and of course, here in Curmudgeon Central where symmetry is appreciated, I like to look at “First to worst” too.  So, let me start down that path this morning.

Last year in the AFC West, the Chiefs finished first and the Chargers finished last.

• Chiefs:  It would take an inordinate number of injuries to consign the Chiefs to last place in the AFC West this year.
• Chargers:  New coach, new system.  However, the question mark surrounding Justin Herbert, and his plantar fasciitis makes me doubt they can vault three division rivals in one season.  Call this one a 20% chance…

Last year in the AFC South, the Texans finished first and the Titans finished last.

• Texans:  They got better when they acquired Stefon Diggs.  CJ Stroud would have to suffer a monumental sophomore slump for the Texans to drop to last place this year.
• Titans:  If Will Levis is the “real deal” and can stay healthy, the Titans might escape the AFC South cellar, but I don’t see them winning the division.

Last year in the AFC North, the Ravens finished first and the Bengals finished last.

• Ravens:  They are vulnerable at the top of the division because the other three teams in the division are good teams; the six division games will be wars.  A few bad bounces of the ball could drop the Ravens out of the top spot; a few bad bounces of the ball plus some injuries could put them at the bottom of the division this year.  Call this one a 30% chance.
• Bengals:  The Bengals finished 9-8 last year despite having Joe Burrow at QB for only 10 games.  In the AFC, I think the Bengals have the best shot at “Worst to first”; this has a 40% chance.

Last year in the AFC East, the Bills finished first and the Pats finished last.

• Bills:  With the improvement expected from the Jets, the Bills are in a tougher division this year as compared to last year – – but they are not going to finish behind the Pats.
• Pats:  They won 4 games last year; if they win 6 games this year, they will be fortunate.  No way they win the AFC East…

Last year in the NFC West, the Niners finished first and the Cards finished last.

• Niners:  They will need to overcome the “Super Bowl Loser’s Hangover” this year and may not win 12 games as they did last year, but I don’t see them finishing significantly below .500 which is how they would finish in last place this year.
• Cards:  It would not be shocking to see the Cards win more than 4 games in 2024 but the three teams above them in the standings from last year are not all going to fall apart in 2024.  No chance for “Worst to first” here.

Last year in the NFC South, the Bucs finished first and the Panthers finished last.

• Bucs:  They won the division with a 9-8 record and then won a playoff game, but they are vulnerable at the top of the division in 2024.  But I don’t see them finishing last this year.
• Panthers:  This is why I cannot see the Bucs finishing last.  The Panthers were 2-15 last year and might not have been as good as that record might indicate.  No way the Panthers win the NFC South in 2024.

Last year in the NFC North, the Lions finished first and the Bears finished last.

• Lions:  Will they be the NFC rep in the Super Bowl this year?  Will they even win the NFC North which has strong teams in it?  I think the Lions season hinges on injuries to their players and the availability of important players to their rivals.  Give the Lions a 30% chance of “First to worst”.
• Bears:  The Bears finished 7-10 with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent as their starting QBs.  Caleb Williams should be an upgrade at that critical position.  This division is up for grabs; I give the Bears a 30% chance for “Worst to first”.

Last year in the NFC East, the Cowboys finished first and the Commanders finished last.

• Cowboys:  The Cowboys are vulnerable; they need CeeDee Lamb signed and happy; they need to find help at RB for Ezekiel Elliott; they need help in the defensive secondary and at LB.  The Cowboys have the highest likelihood of going “First to worst” in the NFL; I give this a 40% chance.
• Commanders:  New coach, new system and new QB who even as a rookie must be an upgrade over any of the team’s starting QBs since Alex Smith in 2018.  If the defensive secondary can be competent – – it was not in 2023 – – the Commanders could be a big surprise and win the NFC East.  I give that proposition a 30% chance.

Finally, I will close today with these words from Dorothy Parker; they might be illuminating with regard to the ranting above:

“It was written without fear and without research.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………