Let me use today to do a College Football Pre-Season analysis. The season will start in a couple of weeks, and I’ll be traveling in southern Africa then; so, today is a good time to get this rolling. I’ll begin with six coaches on hot seats. Let me be clear, though; I have not considered all 134 coaches in Division 1-A of college football; these are possible hot seats in highly visible programs:
- Mario Cristobal – Miami: His overall record in two seasons is 12-13 which is nowhere near good enough for a guy portrayed as the “Prodigal Son Returning Home”. Double-digit wins will secure his place as the coach at Miami next year; I don’t know if 9-4 would be good enough.
- Ryan Day – Ohio State: Yes, he has a gaudy record at Ohio State, but he has not beaten Michigan in the last three years and has not been a key element of the CFP for its entire existence. He wins 11 or more games a year – -but is that good enough in Columbus, OH?
- Brian Kelly – LSU: Same situation as Ryan Day at Ohio State … Kelly has gone 20-7 in his two seasons at LSU with an SEC West championship on his record. But like Day, the expectation is that he would have LSU contending for the CFP and not merely a conference championship.
- Billy Napier – Florida: His record in his first two seasons at Florida is 11-13 and that is not nearly acceptable to the denizens of The Swamp.
- Lincoln Riley – USC: Two seasons ago, the Trojans were very good but lost to Utah twice. Last year with wunderkind Caleb Williams under center, the Trojans limped home with a 7-5 record. The schedule is difficult this year with USC in the Big-10, and I am not sure that another 7-5 season will be acceptable.
- Dabo Sweeney – Clemson: He could be another victim of lofty expectations on the part of the alums. Clemson dominated the ACC for about 5 years; they have been good the last 3 years but nowhere near dominant. With Florida State seemingly on the upswing, Sweeney needs to kick it up a notch. [Hat Tip to Emeril Lagasse.]
With the tectonic realignment of teams and conferences over the past 9 months or so, a lot of schools needed to shuffle their schedules significantly. I wondered how many – – if any – – would jettison scheduled games with Division 1-AA opponents that really only serve the purpose of padding records to make teams bowl eligible thereby possibly allowing coaches to keep their jobs for one more season. This is NOT an exhaustive list, but here are seven schools in major conferences that I believe had purged their schedules of Division 1-AA “patsy games” for 2024:
- Arizona State
- Michigan
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Texas
- USC
I am sure there are others who have also purged their schedules, and I would like to commend all of them for doing so.
A major rule change for 2024 is the introduction of “helmet communications” between coaches and players on the field. The NFL has used these sorts of devices for more than 25 years and they seem to work at that level; the college mavens now hope that coach/player radio communications will cut down – hopefully eliminate – sign stealing that precipitated a scandal last year at Michigan.
Here is my view. Sign stealing is not “illegal” or even “improper”; using video technology to do the analysis of data to make sign stealing effective is “against the rules”. If one bothered to focus on the various signals being flashed from the sidelines to players in games, I honestly believe that a lot of fans could start to see patterns and figure out a couple of the signals in use for that game. And if that fan happened to be Joe Flabeetz sitting in the upper deck at the 40-yardline and all he was doing was calling out plays for the folks seated around him, one could label Joe Flabeetz as an annoying presence in the stands but not as some sort of malignant element that ruins the game.
Will helmet communications eliminate the “problem”? No. Even with helmet communications in place, the system shuts down with 15 seconds left on the play clock so there will need to be signals used in that later period where teams react to the opponent’s formations. Having said that, helmet communications will reduce the amount of sign stealing and therefore it is a step in the right direction. For people who say that there needs to be a system in place to prevent the sign stealing completely, let me refer to advice given by Voltaire:
“Perfect is the enemy of the good.”
The CFP will expand to 12 teams this year with the top 4 teams getting a first round bye. Clearly, this move is done with the intent to provide more ”inventory” to TV networks thereby raising revenues significantly. Please do not try to defend any proposition that any other motivation is primary here. Here is my worry:
- We saw what happens when the best team from a “lowly conference” takes on a top team from a “big-boy conference” last year when Liberty played Oregon. I fear that some of those first round games in the CFP might resemble that game and not be attractive properties for TV networks.
- I hope I am wrong there…
Historically, people who follow coaching legends in jobs do not fare particularly well. Nick Saban is not the coach at Alabama anymore; Kalen DeBoer has that job now and has those shoes to fill. Just for fun, consider this quiz question:
- Another legendary Alabama football coach, Bear Bryant retired in the 1980s.
- Who replaced him?
Not only did the replacement fail to make Bama fans forget the glory days under Bryant, the replacement coach is reduced to a trivia question. For the record the replacement was Ray Perkins whose record in four seasons at Alabama was 32-15-1 which looks pretty good but was not nearly good enough to follow in “The Bear’s” footsteps.
Bonne chance, Kalen DeBoer.
Jim Harbaugh certainly made his mark at Michigan even if he may not have the same place on the coaching pedestal as Nick Saban. Harbaugh will be replaced this year by someone who has been on the Michigan staff under Harbaugh; Sherrone Moore takes over the Wolverines in 2024 with a good roster and stratospheric expectations in Ann Arbor.
Bonne chance, Sherrone Moore.
Naturally, there will be a huge focus on Colorado and Deion Sanders – – because if there is not a huge focus on the program, Coach Sanders will do something outrageous to get the attention back on the program. Last year started well and ended in a heap. The Buffaloes will play in the Big-12 this year; stay tuned…
Here is my “sleeper team” for 2024:
- Nebraska: Matt Rhule’s teams tend to improve dramatically in their second and third seasons; this is year #2 for Rhule in Lincoln. The Huskers won 5 games last year and their win-total number for 2024 is either 7 or 7.5 depending on the sportsbook you use. I like the OVER.
Since I mentioned win-totals, let me offer three more win-total predictions here:
- Boise State: I like the Broncos to go OVER 9 wins in 2024. Boise State seems to be the consensus favorite to be the “outsider team” who gets invited to the CFP this year so that would suggest to me at least 10 or 11 wins.
- Florida State: I like the Seminoles to go OVER 9.5 wins in 2024. I think Florida State is the best team in the ACC and could win 11 games comfortably this year.
- Oklahoma: I think the Sooners will go UNDER 7.5 wins simply based on the schedule for 2024. If they do not have 8 wins in their first 10 games, they will need to finish the season with wins over Alabama and/or LSU in their final 2 games. Ouch …
The season is about to begin …
Finally, since I mentioned Nick Saban above, let me close with these words from Coach Saban:
“I always ask myself the question, do you like to win, or do you hate to lose?”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………