Speculation …

A while back, I noted here that the KC Chiefs have had a handful of players who have had unintended interactions with officers of the law during this off-season.  One of those players was DT, Isaiah Buggs who was then cited for animal cruelty.  That matter is still pending; and now over this weekend, Buggs has been arrested on new charges:

• Domestic violence – – and – –
• Burglary.

Buggs has been in the NFL for five seasons – -three with the Steelers and the last two with the Lions.  The Chiefs signed him after the Lions released him back in January when the Lions released him.  His contract with the Chiefs is for 1 year at a salary of $1.29M with a $100K signing bonus and $350K guaranteed.

Moving on …  The Jags signed QB Trevor Lawrence to a contract extension last week; the deal is for 5 years at $275M with $200M guaranteed.  Lawrence is now signed through 2030 and could hit the free agent market once again at the age of 31.  His signing bonus in the deal was reported to be $37.5M.  Lawrence and Joe Burrow both have contracts providing them with annual average salaries of $55M which is manageable under a projected increasing salary cap for NFL teams year over year.  Nevertheless, given the current cap and the terms of Lawrence’s deal, he will account for about 6% of the Jags’ total salary cap figure.

As of this morning, 10 QBs in the NFL are going to make average annual salaries of $45M or more.  Here they are alphabetically:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Kirk Cousins
3. Jared Goff
4. Justin Herbert
5. Jalen Hurts
6. Lamar Jackson
7. Trevor Lawrence
8. Patrick Mahomes
9. Kyler Murray
10. Deshaun Watson.

As you take in that list, please note that only one QB there has ever won a Super Bowl and that more than half the QBs on the list have never played in a Super Bowl.  Moreover, one QB on that list has never played in a playoff game let alone a Super Bowl.  Lots of speculation on display there.

The Jags have opened the wallet so to speak in this offseason.  In addition to the $275M they have just committed to Trevor Lawrence, please remember that the Jags signed LB Josh Allen for 5 years at $141M back in April.  And having mentioned LB, Josh Allen, please look at that list above one more time and notice that QB Josh Allen – – the one who plays in Buffalo – – is not on that list; he makes a paltry $43M per year in average annual salary based on his current contract which expires at the end of the 2028 season.

There are four QBs who will be coming up on negotiations for a new contract or a contract extension very soon:

1. Jordan Love:  His contract has voidable years after this one meaning that he will either sign an extension with the Packers or become an unrestricted free agent – – assuming no franchise tag.  His current contract totals $13.5M for this season.
2. Dak Prescott:  His contract has four void years after this one; he will either sign an extension with the Cowboys or become an unrestricted free agent.  He will make $29M in 2024.
3. Aaron Rodgers:  His contract ends after the 2025 season.  The wrinkle in his case is that the Jets will take a huge dead money hit in 2026 if they do not sign him to an extension or work out a contract modification prior to the end of 2025.  Rodgers will make only $3.6M in 2024, but he did get a $70M signing bonus with the Jets back before the start of the 2023 season.
4. Tua Tagovailoa:  His contract ends after this season and will be an unrestricted free agent then.  He is scheduled to make $23.1M in 2024.

Finally, since I suggested that QB salaries in the NFL have a degree of speculation built into them, let me close with this observation by Brian Acton – – one of the co-founders of WhatsApp:

“There’s a certain degree of speculation that goes into valuations. In so far as the market supports a valuation, everyone who gets a great one deserves it, but they should also be cautious because that speculation is temporary. I saw Yahoo go from $100 billion to $10 billion. It’s not a long-term measure.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………