Looking Back On Previous NFL Drafts

Earlier this week, people in the US celebrated the birthday of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.  and used that day to contemplate a better world for tomorrow.  Today is the birthday of another great American – – Benjamin Franklin.  To honor Benjamin Franklin, if anyone annoys you today, tell that person to:

• Go fly a kite!

I have seen several “Mock Drafts” and various reporting that indicates the possibility of QBs being taken in the overall #1, #2 and #3 slots this April.  If that were to happen, it would be the 25^th anniversary of the only time I can recall that such a sequence of draft picks took place.  And looking back at that previous happenstance might be a cautionary tale for NFL GMs this time around.

Let’s use Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine and set the date for 1999.  Based on the standings for the 1998 regular season, the Eagles should have had the overall #1 pick via tiebreakers; the Eagles were 3-13 in 1998.  However, that was the year that the NFL added “Cleveland Browns 2.0” to the league and part of the deal for that new franchise was that it would get the overall #1 pick in the draft in its first year of existence.  So, the top three draft slots in April 1999 went to:

1. “Cleveland Browns 2.0”
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Cincinnati Bengals

So, what did those teams do with their coveted high picks and how did it all turn out?

• Browns took Tim Couch (Kentucky).  He played in the NFL for 5 seasons and had an unremarkable career.
• Eagles took Donovan McNabb (Syracuse).  He played in the league for 13 seasons and made the Pro Bowl 6 times.  He was the QB for an Eagles’ team that made it to the Super Bowl but lost that game.  His was not a “Hall of Fame career” but the pick turned out to be quite productive.
• Bengals took Akili Smith (Oregon):  He appeared in 22 games over a 4 year career; in those 22 games he threw 5 TDs and 13 INTs.  Basically, that pick was a wasted asset.

I am not saying that the various QBs who may be selected at the top of this year’s NFL Draft will turn out to be analogous to the ones from 25 years ago, but in the euphoria that will accompany the high picks this year, perhaps fans and GMs should take a moment to exhale.

And since I am on the subject of QBs taken in the first round of the Draft, let me jump ahead in time to look at some more recent selections from the 2021 NFL Draft…

Trevor Lawrence was the overall #1 pick in 2021; he has been in the league for 3 years.  In a sense, his first year was “wasted” in that the Jaguars as a team were experiencing the futility of Urban Meyer’s mercifully brief NFL coaching career.  Lawrence made the Pro Bowl and led the Jags to a winning record and even a playoff win in his second year – – and then he may have regressed in 2023.  I say he “may have regressed” because it is not clear to me that he was completely healthy for the last month of the 2023 season but next year will be his fourth year on his “rookie contract” and the Jags will have an option for a fifth year.  I have no doubt that the team will exercise that option, but if his performance is as it was in 2023, I wonder what might be Trevor Lawrence’s contractual situation at the end of the 2025 season.

Mac Jones went in the middle of the first round of the same draft class that produced Trevor Lawrence.  In his rookie year, Jones made the Pro Bowl and led the Pats to a 10-7 record starting all 17 games in the regular season.  In year two, he only started 14 games and the Pats were 6-8 in those games; this year he started 11 games; the Pats were 2-9 in those games, and he was ultimately replaced by Bailey Zappe.  We can debate from not until next year the cause(s) of that regression in performance, but the fact of the regression is axiomatic.  Like Lawrence, Mac Jones will be in his fourth year on his “rookie contract” in 2024.  I am not sure that the Pats will exercise their fifth year option based on Jones’ career arc to date.

Justin Fields was another product of the 2021 NFL Draft as a first-round QB selection.  He has generated lots of content and commentary over his three years in the NFL; some folks say he is a bust; others think he may be the best QB the Bears have had since Sid Luckman in the 1940s.  As is usually the case, both extremes on that spectrum are just that – – extremes.  Fields is not a bust; and at the same time, Fields does not project to be a Hall of Fame QB as was Luckman.  We will learn in the coming months what various “football people” think about Justin Fields.  The Bears own the overall #1 pick in this year’s draft so:

• If the Bears are convinced that he is their long-term answer at QB, they could use that #1 pick to “add pieces around” Fields and go forward – – or the Bears could trade that pick for multiple assets in the future.
• If the Bears are not convinced that he is their long-term answer at QB, they can seek to trade Fields to another team.  And at that point, we might learn what assessment other teams have made about Justin Fields by assessing the trade offers that they put in front of the Bears’ braintrust.

The lesson to be learned from the NFL Draft 25 years ago and the one from 3 years ago is simple:

• Scouting college football players and projecting their performance in the NFL is not a science.

Finally, consider these definitions from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Science:  The study and investigation of phenomena based on rigorous study and experiment, conducted solely for the purpose of pissing off those who think God did it all.”

And …

“Scientist:  A person in a lab coat who appears at the beginning of science fiction films to explain how the collision of certain isotopes can result in a half-man-half-lemur.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………