Football Friday 1/12/24

In his tragedy, Macbeth, William Shakespeare wrote:

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in creeps in this petty pace from day to day …”

Forget the pettiness of the pace; after seven “tomorrows”, it is once again time to produce a Football Friday and so – as is the custom in these parts – I shall begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  1-1-0   =>   Final Season Total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  1-3-0   =>   Season  =  21-26-0
• Parlays = 0-1  Loss = $100   =>  Season  =   10-16  Loss  =  $85

[Aside:  My NFL selections have been rancid at best since Thanksgiving.  Back then, my NFL selections in the “Betting Bundle” were 14-11-0.  Since Thanksgiving, my NFL selections have gone 7-15-0.  Yuck!]

Notwithstanding that trend over the last 6 weeks or so, I will be making a selection in each of the six games this weekend – – even if some of the selections are not much more than a coin-flip in my mind.  There have been books written and songs titled:

• Devil Take the Hindmost

Let that be the focus of what shows up today as the “Betting Bundle”.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Michigan won the CFP Championship Game handily; they did not do any sign stealing last Monday night; all they did was to run the ball down Washington’s throat for more than 300 yards on the ground.  I think the bigger story relates to the popularity of the CFP itself.

Go back to the Michigan/Alabama game on New Year’s Eve.  The TV audience for that game was reported to be 27.2 million people.  That audience is only drawn by NFL games or truly unique events.  The CFP Championship game had an audience of 25.2 million folks.  The important thing here is not just the size of the audience but the reason for the size of the audience.

First, American football is the most popular sport in the US and whatever claims to be second is far behind.  If you are a “football hater”, that is perfectly OK; but it cannot cloud your thinking to the point that you think something like tennis or baseball or golf is similarly popular.  It just is not so.

So, it would be easy to conclude that more than 25 million folks tuned into either or both of those games simply because it was football played at a high level of competence.  And maybe that simple explanation is all that is needed … but maybe there is something else at work here.  Consider:

• The CFP as configured today combines two elements – – high level college football PLUS scarcity.  There are only 3 games in the whole of the CFP.
• So, is either of those elements the primary reason for the large audiences or do they just work in harmony with one another?

That is an interesting question because starting next year, there will be 11 CFP games.  The “scarcity element” will have been significantly diluted; it will be interesting to see how large the first and second round games’ audiences are, and it will be interesting to see if in the semi-finals and final round the audiences remain in the mid-20 million range.

My prediction is that the first-round games and the second-round games will not get anywhere near the audience size we saw this year.  The important question for me is how the “Football Final Four” games draw.  If the matchup next year is between two of the “Football Bluebloods”, the audience will be huge; if one or two teams in the semi-finals are “Upstarts”, I think the audience will be significantly smaller.  We shall see…

I wrote yesterday about Nick Saban’s announced retirement.  With 24 hours to ruminate on that announcement, I would offer these comments:

1. I believe Nick Saban surpassed Bear Bryant in terms of “Alabama Football” – – and I never thought I would come to such a conclusion.
2. I believe Nick Saban’s coaching accomplishments can be considered the football-equivalent of John Wooden’s coaching accomplishments in basketball.
3. I believe he would make a fantastic studio analyst for college football if he wanted to stay connected to the game.  His press conferences show him as a natural behind a microphone.
4. I believe the coach who replaces Nick Saban will last less than 4 years at Alabama.

Here is something I fervently hope is not in play:

• Some legendary coaches retired and then died soon after retirement.  Bear Bryant, Joe Paterno, Vince Lombardi and Pat Summitt are examples of top-shelf coaches who did not enjoy a long-term retirement.
• I would prefer not to add Nick Saban to that listing.

Michigan 34  Washington 13:  I mentioned above the dominance of the Michigan running game here.  In addition, let me present some other stats from the game to explain why – even though the score was still close in the second half – I felt as if the outcome was decided by the end of the second quarter:

• Michigan:  47 offensive plays  – –  7.8 yards per play
• Washington:  71 plays  – –  4.2 yards per play

And, here are the results of the Huskies’ possessions in the second half of the game:

• 1 play – – 0 yards – – 0:05 Time of Possession – – INTERCEPTION
• 7 plays – – 47 yards – – 2:57 Time of Possession – – FIELD GOAL
• 5 plays – – 11 yards – – 1:47 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 18 yards – – 2:10 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 1 yard – – 2:08 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 45 yards – – 2:40 Time of possession – – INTERCEPTION
• 8 plays – – 14 yards – – 1:48 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

So, in the second half of the game here is the summary of the Washington offensive output:

• 35 plays – – 136 yards – – 13:35 Time of Possession
• 1 Field Goal, 3 Punts, 2 Interceptions and 1 Turnover on Downs.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Let me go back to the topic of TV audience size for a moment here to put some perspective on the NFL’s popularity.  The good folks at Nielsen have been estimating TV audience sizes since I was a kid just a mankind exited the Bronze Age.  I have no idea how they do it, but lots of folks give significant credence to their numbers.  So, Neilsen published the list of the 100 most watched TV programs for the calendar year 2023.  Take a deep breath as you check out these numbers:

• 93 of the Top-100 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games.
• 24 of the Top-25 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games [Aside:  That “other program” in the Top-25 was the Michigan/Alabama game mentioned above.]
• 47 of the Top-50 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games.  The “other programs” in the Top 50 list were the Michigan/Alabama game, the State of the Union Address and Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

As a punctuation mark here, the importance of things like Neilsen ratings and audience size are captured in these two quotations:

“The biases the media has are much bigger than conservative or liberal.  They’re about getting ratings, about making money, about doing stories that are easy to cover.”  Senator Al Franken (D-MN)

And …

“The democratic system is challenged by the failure in television because our evening news programs have gone for an attempt to entertain as much as to inform in the desperate fight for ratings.”  Walter Cronkite

Last week, the Browns had a playoff slot locked in; so, they wisely chose to give 38-year-old Joe Flacco a week off.  That meant the Browns started Jeff Driskell at QB and he was the 5^th starting QB for the Browns in the 2023 regular season:

1. Deshaun Watson
2. PJ Walker
3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson
4. Joe Flacco
5. Jeff Driskell

Even with that Keystone Kops situation at QB, the Browns made the playoffs with the best record of any of the wildcard teams in the AFC.  I doubt that anything like that has happened in the past.

Speaking of starting QBs, there will be 12 players filling that role this weekend and 5 of the 12 will have come from the Big-12 conference.  So, does that make the Big-12 the “Cradle of Playoff QBs”?  If you think I have counted incorrectly, here is my list:

1. Jalen Hurts – – Oklahoma
2. Patrick Mahomes – – Texas Tech
3. Baker Mayfield – – Oklahoma
4. Brock Purdy – – Iowa St.
5. Mason Rudolph – – Oklahoma St.

In the last couple of days, we have seen Mike Vrabel, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick lose their jobs.  It is not commonplace to see coaches in playoff games whose jobs might be “in the balance” but if Vrabel, Carroll and Belichick were “eighty-sixed” recently, we may be going through a Bizarro World space warp.  So, just in case we are going though such a space warp let me throw some stuff on the wall to see if any of it sticks:

• Cowboys:  IF the Cowboys get blown out by the Packers – – say by 3 TDs or more – – the notoriously impatient and hair-triggered owner of the Cowboys might do something rash.  5% chance of this happening…
• Chiefs:  There are Internet rumors that Andy Reid may hang it up after this year is done.  5% chance of this happening.
• Steelers:  There are even louder Internet rumors that Mike Tomlin might just be “stepping away” from his days in Pittsburgh.
• Eagles:  The team has collapsed from a 10-1 start finding ways to lose five of their last six games.  Complete harmony is not in existence in the locker room and on the coaching staff.  The team is virtually certain to be looking to replace both the offensive and defensive coordinators – – both of whom were hired by Nick Sirianni just last year.  If the Eagles lose big to the Bucs, there is a good chance that Sirianni will join the Eagles’ coordinators out there looking for jobs.

Since so many of last week’s games were moot, I am not going to go through a comment on each game.  Rather this week, I would prefer to take a brief look at some of the storylines for this week’s first round playoff matchups:

• Browns/Texans:  The irony here is that these two teams meet in the AFC playoffs and Deshaun Watson will not be the QB for either team.
• Dolphins/Chiefs:  Tyreek Hill returns to Arrowhead Stadium where he did lots of damage for the Chiefs; now he seeks to inflict damage on the Chiefs.
• Steelers/Bills:  Steelers’ coach, Mike Tomlin, and Bills’ coach, Sean McDermott, were teammates in college at William and Mary.
• Packers/Cowboys:  Cowboys’ coach, Mike McCarthy won a Super Bowl as the coach of the Packers.
• Rams/Lions:  Current Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford was traded for current Lions’ QB, Jared Goff.  Both were overall #1 picks in the NFL Draft in their year.
• Eagles/Bucs:  This will be the 6^th playoff meeting between these two teams.  The Eagles were the Bucs’ opponent in the Bucs’ first-ever playoff appearance in 1979.  In college, Eagles’ QB, Jalen Hurts, succeeded Bucs’ QB, Baker Mayfield, as the QB for the Oklahoma Sooners.

In NFL playoff games, experienced QBs have an edge on QBs in their first-ever playoff games.  I read a stat that said since the 2002 playoffs “Experienced QBs” lead “First time QBs” 36-17.  Of the six games this week, that sort of confrontation will happen four times:

1. Texans’ CJ Stroud versus Browns’ Joe Flacco
2. Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa versus Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes
3. Steelers’ Mason Rudolph versus Bills’ Josh Allen
4. Packers’ Jordan Love versus Cowboys’ Dak Prescott.

The Dolphins/Chiefs game will only be available on Peacock – – the streaming platform.  If you do not have Peacock, think carefully about signing up for it to see this game.  If streaming services see large sign-ups when they bid for individual games, that means they can offer top dollar to the NFL for that programming and the NFL is not one to turn down top-dollar.  The potential endgame here is that the NFL could put all of the playoffs on streaming services because those services will bid more for the product.  So, think about the long-term as well as the immediate term.  I do not have Peacock; I have no interest in signing up for Peacock; I will have to miss a live telecast of this game.

Let the games begin …

 

Super Wildcard Weekend Games:

 

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Browns – 2 at Texans (44.5):  These teams played each other on Christmas Eve in Houston and the Browns prevailed then by a score of 36-22.  CJ Stroud did not play in that game for the Texans; Davis Mills was the QB then as Stroud was in concussion protocol.  Amari Cooper had a monster game that day with 11 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs.  I suspect that Messr. Cooper has been a focal point for the defensive unit and the defensive coaches during this week of preparation.  Here is a stat that I ran across that surprised me:

• The Browns’ defense is great at home but not on the road.  In road games this season the Browns’ defense ranks dead last in points per game given up (29.6 points per game.
• This game is in Houston…

I don’t know how he did it, but Joe Flacco turned 9 months of isolated workouts and weekends watching NFL games on TV into performing as one of the top QBs in the NFL.  If he has a “secret sauce” that facilitates this – – and it’s a legal substance – – he could market it for a fortune.  I love CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans for the long haul but for tomorrow, I like the Browns – – with the better defense – – and the Browns – – with the QB on a mystical roll – – to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Sat 8:15 PM ET) Dolphins at Chiefs – 4.5 (44.5):  These two teams faced each other in early November in Germany.  The Chiefs won that game 21-14 with the winning TD coming on a “Scoop and Score” by the Chiefs defense.  The Dolphins arrive at the kickoff having lost their last two games which knocked them out of the #2 seed and dropped them to the #6 seed.  The Weather forecast for this game calls for temperatures to be around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with gusting winds.  Perhaps, this is the latter day “Ice Bowl”?  The Chiefs have the better QB who is more experienced in playoff venues; the Chiefs have the better defense in this game.  The biggest unknowns are very simple:

• Can the Chiefs’ WRs get open? And …
• Can they catch the damned ball if Patrick Mahomes delivers it such that they get both hands on the ball?

I will believe the meteorologists here – – dangerous, I know – – and believe that really adverse weather conditions will keep the scoring down below what would be normal on a warn sunny day in October.  I’ll take the game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

[Aside:  I make that selection fully realizing that the adverse weather could also result in a large number of turnovers with very short fields wherein the total score could easily be in the mid-60s.  Whatever …]

(Sun 1:00 PM ET) Steelers at Bills – 10 (35.5):  There have been tremendous line movements in this game.  The spread opened with the Bills as 7.5-point favorites which expanded quickly to this level.  Meanwhile the Total Line opened at 44.5 points and has dropped by 9 points during the week.  At one point this season, the bills were 6-6 and looked like roadkill; they then proceeded to win 5 games in a row to get to the playoffs as the #2 seed in the AFC.  Back in mid-December, the Steelers were similarly on the outside looking in for a playoff berth, but Mason Rudolph has led the team to 3 straight wins and the last playoff slot in the AFC.  If you like trends, consider this:

• Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 7 teams from each conference back in 2020, no 7^th seed has ever beaten a 2^nd seed.

Anyone who has been a reader here for any length of time and has been paying even a modicum of attention knows that I try to avoid any selections in NFL games with double-digit spreads. However, the mission this week is to make a pick in every game so here goes:

• I think the Bills have the better offense and the better QB here; I think both defenses are formidable; neither team will be disadvantaged by winter weather in the Northeast US; give me the Bills to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 4:30 PM ET) Packers at Cowboys – 7.5 (50):  Here is another case where a 7^th seed goes to play a 2^nd seed.  Let me add to the trend cited above:

• There have been 6 games involving 7^th seeds and 2^nd seeds.  The overall record is 6-0 for 2^nd seeds and the cumulative scores for those 6 games is 196-123.
• The average margin of victory for the 2^nd seeds is 12.2 points.

The Cowboys are far more formidable at home than they are on the road; they are undefeated (8-0) at home and only 4-5 on the road.  The Packers needed to win their last 3 games of the season to secure that final 7^th seed in the NFC playoffs, The Packers are playing with “house money”.  They might win the game outright by 2 TDs, or they might be blown out by 4 TDs; if you were to be able to read Packers’ QB Jordan Love’s mind, I doubt he has considered either or both of those possibilities.  This is a hunch only, but I’ll take the Packers with a full TD plus a hook; put that in the ”Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 8:15 PM ET) Rams at Lions – 3 (51.5):  Can Lions’ TE, Sam LaPorta play up to his normal level in this game?  He injured his knee last week against the Vikes.  More importantly, can the Lions’ defensive secondary break out of a terrible slump in this game.  Here are some numbers from the Lions’ last 3 games:

• Lions allowed 411 passing yards to Vikes in Minnesota yet won the game 30-24
• Lions allowed 345 passing yards to Cowboys in Dallas and lost 20-19
• Lions allowed 396 passing yards to Vikes in Detroit yet won the game 30-20.

If the Lions are going to advance, they will have to do better than they have been doing by a lot.  I love the Lions’ offense and I love the Lions’ “grit”, but that Lions’ secondary is ripe for the picking by Matthew Stafford throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  I think the wrong team is favored here; I’ll take the Rams plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon 8:15 PM ET) Eagles – 3 at Bucs (43.5):  The Bucs arrive here with a modest 9-8 record BUT the Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games.  That stands as a mirror image to the Eagles’ record in their last 6 games where they have lost 5 of the 6.  The Eagles pass defense has been awful over the losing stretch and the Bucs have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for those defensive backs to deal with.  The Eagles’ offense has injuries to deal with:

• QB Jalen Hurts has a finger injury on his throwing hand.  He was ‘limited” in practice this week.
• WR AJ Brown hurt his knee last week and did not practice this week; he is listed as “questionable” and will be a “game-time decision”.
• WR Devonta Smith did not play last week but was a “full participant” in practice this week.

Having said all that, it is the Eagles’ defense that has collapsed over the last 6 games.  They have not stopped the run well; they have not been good on third down and the secondary has been torched.  While the Eagles are the more talented team from the top of the roster to the bottom, my sense is that this team is ready to fly apart at the seams.  Once again, I think the wrong team is favored so I’ll take the Bucs plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Browns – 2 over Texans
• Chiefs/Dolphins UNDER 44.5
• Bills – 10 over Steelers
• Packers + 7.5 against Cowboys
• Rams +3 against Lions
• Bucs +3 against Eagles

            Just for fun, here are two Money Line Parlays:

• Bucs @ +140
• Bills @ minus-460   $100 wager to win $193.

And …

• Rams @ +145
• Browns @ minus-130   $100 Wager to win $333.

Finally, at the start of the NFL playoffs, it is appropriate to close here with a remark by Tom Landry whose Cowboys teams went to the playoffs 18 times between 1966 and 1985:

“Setting a goal is not the main thing.  It is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………