Football Friday 1/5/24

At this point in the Earth’s journey around the sun, lots of folks are wont to say:

“New year … new me.”

Such is not the case here in Curmudgeon Central; naturally, I recognize the reality of a new year; nonetheless, this is the same old me.  And on Fridays, the same old me turns out a Football Friday.  So, let me begin as I always do with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College:  1-0-0   =>   Season:  20-9-0
• NFL:  1-2-0   =>   Season:  20-23-0
• Parlays:  1-1   Profit:  $103   =>   Season:  10-15   Profit $15

 

College Football Commentary:

 

With the college football bowl season in the rear-view mirror, let me offer some comments on the 3 worst and the 6 best bowl games that I saw at least a quarter of.  Believe me, there were plenty of bowl games that I did not see even a nanosecond of.

Three Bad Games:

• Georgia 63  Florida St. 3:  Given the Seminoles’ injuries and optouts, this is a game that should not have been played.  They should have sent Florida St. home and substituted a random team from the MAC.  That could not have been much worse.
• USF 45  Syracuse 0:  Another mismatch due to injuries and opt-outs PLUS a coaching disconnect for Syracuse.
• Western Kentucky 38  Old Dominion 35 (OT):  How can an OT game be awful?  ODU led 28-0 in the first half and coughed up this game in an epic display of ineptitude throughout the second half.

Six Good/Interesting Games:

• Oregon 45  Liberty 6:  The game on the field stunk but the game was a good one because it demonstrated the importance of “strength of schedule”.  Liberty was 13-0 and was clearly in way over their heads here.
• Missouri 14  Ohio St. 3:  The Buckeyes’ first string QB went through the transfer portal and the second-stringer suffered a foot/ankle injury; so, the Ohio St. offense was pretty much non-existent.  But the defense kept this a close game into the mid-4^th quarter.
• Ga Tech 30  UCF 17:  I tuned in to see UCF leading 14-0 in the first quarter.  I was going to change the channel; but something came up – – don’t recall what – – and I stuck with the game.  Tech then proceeded to dominate the game on offense and on defense.  Now, I wonder how UCF got that 14-point lead in the first place.
• Ole Miss 38  Penn St. 25:  This game was not as close as the score looks; the Nittany Lions scored a late and totally meaningless TD.  The best part of this game was seeing underclassmen at Ole Miss who will presumably be back for the Rebels next year to play solid football.  Ole Miss could be an SEC sleeper team in 2024.
• Washington 37  Texas 31:  Both teams played well enough to win this game; there was ebb and flow.  Completely entertaining time spent here.
• Michigan 27  Alabama 20 (OT):  I know what the seedings for the CFP say but I thought these were the two best teams in the tournament and the game certainly did not disappoint.

Anyone who has been reading these rants for any period of time knows that I think there are far too many college football bowl games.  If I were the Dictator of the Universe – – not to worry, no one has offered me that position – – I would probably allow a dozen or so bowl games to exist and put the kibosh on all the rest.  I mention that as a way for you to evaluate what comes next here.

Some commentators are rightfully lamenting the large number of players who choose to opt out of many of the meaningless bowl games.  In the case of Florida State this year, 23 players did not play in the game against Georgia due to injury or opting out to prepare for the NFL Combine or to go through the transfer portal.  The result is that the game on the field was supposed to pair two very good college football teams but only one showed up.

All the above is factual.  However, none of the above matters.  One of the consequences of NIL money going to players these days is that they no longer need “exposure” in nationally telecast bowl games because they now have their own options.  Until and unless bowl games once again become meaningful, this situation will continue to obtain.  Bowl Committees will invite teams like Georgia and Florida State to play in their games because both teams were certainly among the 5 or 8 best teams in the country based on play in the Fall, but as happened this year one or both teams will have significant “defections” such that the teams on the field do not resemble the teams anyone saw in the Fall.

Moreover, the expansion of the College Football Playoff from 4 teams to 12 teams portends a situation that is worse in the future than it is now.  With 12 teams in the CFP, that means it will take 11 games – – bowl games if you will – – to crown a champion.  The media attention – – and fan attention – – will be focused on those 11 games and that will take minor bowl games and render them meaningless and even less interesting than they are now.  Some of this year’s matchups were:

• Myrtle Beach Bowl:  Ohio vs. Ga Southern
• New Mexico Bowl:  Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St.
• Frisco Bowl:  Texas-San Antonio vs. Marshall

You get the idea …

Those bowl games were nothing but afterthoughts with only three CFP games on the docket; how much less important will events like that become with attention diverted to 11 CFP games?  There is an obvious and unpalatable solution here:

• Players in bowl games need to be paid to participate with players on winning teams getting more payment than players on losing teams.

Several staffers at NCAA HQs just got a sharp pain in their necks as I finished typing out that last sentence.  My solution would be the absolute last option for NCAA folks; it would deny the concept of the amateur scholar-athlete that the NCAA has tried to will into existence for the last 75 years.

And one last observation about the upcoming expanded CFP.

• College teams now play 12 regular season games and the two best teams in each conference play a 13^th game in the conference championship game.
• Teams seeded between 5 and 12 in the CFP would need to play 3 more games to make it to the Final Game.
• By playing in that Final Game, a team seeded 5 through 12 in the CFP would have to play 17 games in a season.
• Excuse me …  Didn’t more than a handful of NFL players say it was dangerous to play a 17-game schedule?

 

CFP Final Game This Week:

 

Washington vs. Michigan – 4.5 (56.5):  This should be an interesting pairing; it is the first final championship game in the “playoff era” without an SEC participant since 2015.  The Huskies have not played a team with an offensive and defensive line as “bullying” as Michigan’s.  The Wolverines’ secondary has not faced a QB and a cadre of receivers as good as Washington.  Michigan has the nation’s #1 defense; Washington has the nation’s #1 passing offense.  As Flounder said in Animal House:

“Oh boy, this is great!”

[Aside:  FYI, due to conference realignment starting in 2024, Michigan and Washington will both be in the Big-10 next year and will play each other as a regularly scheduled game in October.]  The spread and Total Line have been rock-solid all week long telling me that the money bet on all sides of the wagers is approximately even.  Because I think the game will stay close, I like Washington plus the points and because I think both defenses will be primed for the game, I like the Total to stay UNDER; put both of those in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

As the NFL heads into its final week of the regular season, several games will resemble college bowl games where star players will not be performing:

• Lamar Jackson will be a cheerleader in support of Tyler Huntley.
• Patrick Mahomes will watch Blaine Gabbert run the Chiefs’ offense.
• Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald get the day off.
• Brock Purdy will give way to Sam Darnold – and maybe Brandon Allen? – this week.
• Joe Flacco gets a game off; Jeff Driskell will take his place.

That is the “news” emerging from top teams whose final game has no effect on their playoff status for the season.  At the other end of the NFL spectrum the “news” just might be focused on which coach is about to get fired sometime next week.  So, what I want to do here is to project which teams will be looking for a new coach very soon and then which of those projected jobs are good ones and which ones are not.

In no particular order, here are the jobs I think will be open very soon:

• Panthers – – no reason to retain the interim-coach in Carolina.
• Raiders – – think they will go for a bigger splash than retaining Antonio Pierce
• Chargers – – could you pick Giff Smith (interim coach) out of a lineup with the Smurfs?
• Pats – – surprising development, but I suspect that it is coming.
• Titans – – lots of reporting saying that Vrabel wants out of Tennessee.
• Commanders – – a new broom sweeps clean?
• Bears – – I am on the fence about the opening happening here.
• “NFC South” – – in addition to the Panthers, at least one other NFC South coach will fall this season.

Let me clarify that “NFC South” entry above.  I believe the coach of the division winner will keep his job.  The teams that finish second and third in the division might or might not retain their coaches and for the sake of argument here I will put them in my rankings for the most and least desirable jobs available.

• Chargers:  This is the best job on the board.  No team on my list has a QB that is remotely as competent as Justin Herbert.  The challenge is to build up the defense and to exorcize the injury demons that have haunted this team for at least the last three seasons.  The downside is that the Chargers are now and seem destined forever to be the #2 team in LA.
• Commanders:  The roster needs to be rebuilt; it is the roster that is deficient not the coaching staff.  Josh Harris has shown patience with his other sports franchises so there will be no pressure to make it to the Super Bowl in two years or any other delusional scenarios.  The fanboys will not be patient, but so long as the owner is, who cares?  Having a Top 3 or 4 pick in the next draft is very attractive for a new coach so long as he has faith in his GM.
• Bears:  Maybe this is even better than the Commanders’ job?  If you believe Justin Fields is your QB of the future, you can use the overall #1 pick to take Marvin Harrison, Jr.  If you are not convinced about Justin Fields, you can find a market for him, amass some more draft capital, take a QB with overall #1 pick and add to your roster with the overall #10 pick.  [Aside:  I would opt to keep Justin Fields.]
• Raiders:  They need a QB, and they need to upgrade the OL but there are going to be some interesting free agent QBs available very soon.  I am not impressed by the owner’s ability to hire GMs or coaches.
• Pats:  It is never a good idea to be the first guy to follow a legend in a job.  Who succeeded Lombardi in Green Bay?  Who succeeded Bryant at Alabama?    Moreover, the team needs a significant upgrade just about everywhere on the offense.
• Titans:  If reports are accurate the incumbent coach wants out because of “friction” with the GM and/or the owners.  Add that less-than-attractive element to a team that needs to develop players for the OL and at the pass-catching positions and this would be a hard pass for me.
• Panthers:  Here is an equation that describes this job opening:
  • • A roster that needs restructuring + a QB who may or not make it + a meddlesome/impetuous owner = NOT a good opportunity.

Here is some unsolicited advice for job seekers being interviewed for the Panthers’ opening:

• Make sure your agent gets you as big a compensation guarantee in your contract as possible because this job is only attractive as a cash-grab.

Let me assess the “NFC South” situation as a separate section.  The team that wins the division and gets to host a playoff game will probably keep its coach unless that team plays its home playoff game and gets blown out by 5-6 TDs.  The Bucs, Saints and Falcons can all win the division based on this weekend’s results.  Since I cannot be certain as to the outcome of this weekend’s games, let me offer an opinion on all three jobs.

• Bucs:  Who will be the QB going forward?  Baker Mayfield has had a career year and is a free agent to be.  When he is good, he is very good; when he is bad, he is awful.  [Hat Tip to Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.]  How much longer will Mike Evans be a dominant WR?  The Bucs’ defense ranks 25^th in the NFL in yards allowed per game; how much fixing does that need?
• Falcons:  They desperately need an upgrade at QB and an upgrade at WR but not nearly so desperately.  The defense is solid, ranking 11^th in the league in yards allowed per game.  Ownership seems to be “hands-off” for the most part; that is a plus.
• Saints:  They thought they had solved the QB issue by obtaining Derek Carr last year but that is not working out as expected.  The roster is aging; and according to reports by people who know more about the NFL salary cap shenanigans than I do, the Saints have little to no cap room available without releasing players.  Presumably, the ownership situation there has calmed down; at one point there were lawsuits filed by children of the former owner against the current owner regarding the mental competency of the then-owner, Tom Benson.

I think there will be three good job openings this year – – Chargers, Commanders and Bears – – along with two potentially good openings – – Raiders and Pats.  I don’t think any of the others listed here are particularly attractive.

And speaking of NFL coaching, coaches and coaching positions, let me present my thinking as to the Coach of the Year Award.  I think it comes down to two people:

• DeMeco Ryans:  His Texans enter Week 18 with a 9-7 record and what looks to me to be a 50/50 shot at making the AFC playoffs.  Considering that the Texans were 3-13-1 last year, I think he deserves serious consideration.
• Kevin Stefanski:  The Browns are 11-5 and have secured a playoff slot.  They achieved that status despite having to have started four different QBs this year.  ‘Nuff said …

Now, let me review last week’s games:

Cards 35  Eagles 31:  The Eagles – – particularly the defense – – are a team in free fall.  They will be in the playoffs but will need a major reversal of form to make it out of the first round.  The Eagles led this game 21-6 at halftime and gave up 29 points in the second half.

• Cards’ Total Offense = 449 yards
• Eagles’ Total Offense = 275 yards

Bears 37  Falcons 17:  It seems counter-intuitive but both teams have records of 7-9 and the Bears just handled the Falcons.  Yet, the Bears are eliminated from the NFC playoffs while the Falcons are still alive for a playoff slot.  The Bears started strong and finished strong and outgained the Falcons by 125 yards for the day.

Rams 26  Giants 25:  The Rams clinched a playoff slot with this win; it was the third win in a row for the Rams.  The scoreboard was close, and the stat sheet was just as close:

• Rams’ Total Offense = 391 yards   Giants’ Total Offense = 389 yards
• Rams’ Rushing Offense = 105 yards   Giants’ Rushing Offense = 105 yards

A missed PAT in the third quarter by the Giants’ Mason Crosby proved to be the difference in the game.

Jags 26  Panthers 0:  With Trevor Lawrence unable to play, the Jags’ defense took control of the game holding the Panthers’ offense to only 124 yards in the game and 7 first downs.  The Jags had lost 4 games in a row coming into this one, but they simply dominated from start to finish here.

Colts 23  Raiders 20:  This result keeps the Colts alive for the AFC playoffs and mathematically eliminates the Raiders from those same playoffs.  The margin of victory was a second-chance field goal attempt by the Colts.  The first try was no good, but the Raiders were offsides and gave the Colts another try which was good.  That attempt produced the 23^rd point for the Colts in the game.

Bills 27  Pats 21:  The Bills were all but dead and buried in November, but this was their fourth straight win, and they can win the AFC East if they beat the Dolphins – – in Miami – – this weekend.  The Pats outgained the Bills in the game and the Pats’ defense held Josh Allen to a meager 167 yards passing.  The big difference in the game is right here:

• Bills’ Turnovers = 1 (INT)
• Pats’ Turnovers = 4 (3 INTs including a Pick-Six)

Ravens 56  Dolphins 19:  The Dolphins led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, but at halftime the Dolphins trailed 28-13.  Then things got significantly worse for the Dolphins in the second half.  The AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Baltimore MD.

Niners 27  Commanders 10:  The game was close at halftime with the Niners only leading 13-10.  However, the Commanders were shut out in the second half and the game was well in hand for the Niners all during the 4^th quarter.  This win gives the Niners the overall #1 seed in the NFC playoffs; the NFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Santa Clara, CA.  The Niners outgained the Commanders 408 yards to 225 yards in the game and controlled the ball for more than 38 minutes.

Saints 23  Bucs 13:  The NFC South race will go down to the final game of the season and if the Bucs and the Saints both lose this week, the NFC South champion will enter the NFC playoffs with an 8-9 record.  A late meaningless TD by the Bucs made this game seem more in doubt than it was; the Saints actually led 20-0 as the fourth quarter began.  Four turnovers by the Bucs sealed their fate here.

Texans 26  Titans 3:  The Titans only managed to gain 187 yards in the game and the Titans running game only produced 53 yards on 21 rushing attempts.  The Texans’ record is 9-7 and they are still potential AFC South division champions.  Remember that the Texans’ record last year was a miserable 3-13-1.

Chiefs 25  Bengals 17:  The Chiefs trailed 17-16 at the start of the 4^th quarter and it was the Chiefs’ defense late in the game that earned this victory.  Here are the Bengals’ possessions in the 4^th quarter of the game:

• 3 plays – – 2 yards – – 1:02 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-14 yards – – 1:45 time of possession – – PUNT
• 9 plays – – 13 yards – – 1:52 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

So, in the fourth quarter the Bengals’ offense ran 15 plays for a net gain of 1 yard over a time span of 4 minutes and 39 seconds.  The Chiefs are the AFC West champs.

Steelers 30  Seahawks 23:  This win assures that Mike Tomlin will not suffer his first losing season as the coach of the Steelers.  It also keeps the Steelers’ playoff hopes alive – – albeit not an easy path for the team.  Speaking of “not easy” the stat sheet says the Steelers should have won this game more comfortably than they did:

• The Steelers gained 468 yards in the game – – 99 more yards than the Seahawks.
• The Steelers time of possession was 37:33.
• The Steelers converted 6 of 13 third-down tries and 2 of 3 fourth-down tries.
• The Steelers ran 71 plays, and the Seahawks ran 49 plays.
• The Steelers did not turn the ball over in the game; the Seahawks lost a fumble.

Why so close?  Well, the Steelers got into the Red Zone seven times in the game and came out with a TD only three times.

Broncos 16  Chargers 9:  Jarrett Stidham was the QB for the Broncos here and this is his first win as a starting QB in the NFL.  Other than that, not much else of any import happened in this game.

Packers 33  Vikes 10:  This was a rout; no way to sugar-coat it.  Check these stats:

• Packers’ Total Offense = 470 yards   Vikes’ Total Offense = 211 yards
• Packers’ Time of Possession = 37:32  Vikes’ Time of Possession = 22:28
• Packers’ First Downs = 28  Vikes’ First Downs = 13
• Packers’ 3^rd down conversion = 9 of 14   Vikes 3^rd down conversion = 3 of 10

Both teams are alive in the NFC playoff race – – but the Vikes’ chances are on life-support in the ICU…

Cowboys 20  Lions 19:  To say the end of this game was “controversial” is like saying that Hemmingway was a decent writer.  Both teams are in the playoffs and just might meet again in a loser-leaves-town match.

Browns 37  Jets 20:  The Joe Flacco Express rolls on.  The surprise is that the Jets’ offense rolled up 360 yards of offense on the Browns’ defense here.  Notwithstanding that accomplishment, this game was never really in doubt after the first quarter when the Browns led 20-7.  The Browns are in the AFC playoffs with their 11-5 record to date; this was their 4^th win in a row.

 

This Week’s Games:

 

There are a lot of lines this week that look odd given teams’ records in the 2023 regular season.  Some of the games here resemble minor bowl games for college teams; you cannot be sure of the level of motivation by either the players or the coaching staffs.  For those of you out there who really like to “have a little something down” on games you will be watching, be careful this week.  The NFL is difficult enough to bet on in the middle of the season; betting in Week 18 is more like buying a lottery ticket.

The other interesting feature for this week’s game is that all 16 games are division games.  Obviously, that was done with “malice aforethought” by the NFL schedule makers; it was not an accident.

Also, there has been lots of line movement this week as news dribbled out about who would be playing and who would not be playing for various teams (see above for a partial listing).

 

(Sat Late PM) Steelers – 4 at Ravens (35):  The spread opened with the Ravens as a 3-point favorite with a Total Line of 43 points.  With Tyler Huntley replacing Lamar Jackson at QB for the Ravens the line moved a full TD and the Total Line shrunk by 8 points.  The Steelers have an outside chance at the playoffs, but that chance demands a win in this game.  This game will have all the grace and artistic flavor of a boxing match in a telephone booth.  Mason Rudolph has jump started the Steelers’ offense in recent weeks by throwing the ball down the field occasionally.  That may not be a great strategy against the Ravens’ defense.  And Tyler Huntley may not be the equivalent of Lamar Jackson, but I don’t think he is significantly worse than Mason Rudolph.  This may be the last chance to get the Ravens plus points this season; so, I’ll take that opportunity here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat Nite) Texans – 1 at Colts (47):  I gave this game some consideration as the Game of the Week. The game opened with the Colts as 3-point favorites, but the line has moved steadily toward the Texans as the week went on.  Unlike many games this weekend, both teams need a win in this one; both teams are 9-7 in the AFC South and both teams trail the Jags in terms of tiebreakers.  That seems to be a lot of pressure for rookie CJ Stroud as the Texans’ QB, but do not consider Colts’ QB, Gardner Minshew, a grizzled vet in these circumstances either.

Cowboys – 14 at Commanders (46):  The Total Line opened at 50 points; the shrinkage may reflect the idea that the Cowboys might take their foot off the gas in the later stages of the game?  The Cowboys have not yet clinched the NFC East, but a win here would nail that down.  The Cowboys are only 3-5 on the road this year and this game is in Washington.  But the idea that the Commanders will win outright is a bit much to swallow.  The Commanders might play to show their new coach what they can do on tape next month – – or – – they might lie down and get themselves ready for a family vacation in the sun somewhere.  One temptation here is to take the points and hope the Cowboys rest some players in the second half allowing a back-door cover by the Commanders – – but I shall resist that temptation.  Another temptation is to take the game to go OVER on the thinking that if the Cowboys get on a roll, they might cover the 46 points all by themselves.  I will resist that temptation also.  I am behaving here contrary to Oscar Wilde who said:

“I can resist anything except temptation.”

Rams at Niners – 4 (41):  Neither team needs this game; they are both in the playoffs and they know where they stand.  See above for all the players who will not participate this week in preparation for the playoffs.  I thought about this game as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because it will essentially be a junior varsity contest, but I settled on another one for that label.  The QB pairing here will be Carson Wentz (Rams) versus Sam Darnold (Niners).  Does that give you a tingly feeling?

(Sun Nite) Bills – 3 at Dolphins (49):  This is the Game of the Week. The spread opened with the Dolphins at 1.5-point favorites, but the line shifted quickly in favor of the Bills.  The Dolphins are assured of a playoff slot; the Bills will be the AFC East champs with what would be their fifth straight win; the Bills are not assured a playoff slot with a loss.

Falcons at Saints – 3 (42):  Here is another game where both teams need to win, and it will be all hands on deck.  If the Panthers rise up and beat the Bucs in Carolina on Sunday, the Saints can claim the division title with a win.  I believe that the Falcons would also win that division with a Bucs’ loss and their win over the Saints via division record as the tiebreaker.  This is an important game – – but I doubt it will be entertaining.

Eagles – 5 at Giants (42):  This line opened with the Eagles as 7-point favorites and with the Total Line at 47 points.  Why there has been such a large movement in the spread and the Total Line is not obvious to me.  Neither team needs this game; the Eagles might harbor some fantasy of winning the NFC East if they win here and the Commanders beat the Cowboys.  [Aside:  The Money Line on the Commanders this morning sits at +600.  Just saying …]  Meanwhile the Giants have been playing out the string for several weeks now.  The Eagles’ secondary has been porous for the last 6 weeks or so; maybe someone should whisper in the offensive coordinator’s ear that running the ball and taking some time to move down the field will take some of the pressure off that defensive secondary.  Got that?

Browns at Bengals – 7.5 (37):  This line opened with the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites, and it jumped to this level once it was announced that Joe Flacco would be sitting this one out.  At the same time, the Total Line dropped from 41.5 points to this level very quickly.  This is another game where neither team needs the game because their playoff fates are already decided.  This line is fat; even with Flacco on the sidelines, do I want to lay a full TD with a hook on Jake Browning’s version of the Bengals’ offense against the Browns defense?  No, I’ll take the Browns even without heavy motivation other than a rivalry game plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bears at Packers – 3.5 (45):  I believe this is a “win-and-you’re-in” game for the Packers.  It is clearly going to be a pressure game for Jordan Love as the Packers QB in front of their home fans this week.  Do not sleep on the Bears; they have won 5 of their last 7 games and they are scoring about 25 points per game over that time period.  I think the Bears will play the game seriously because it is a rivalry game; give me the Bears plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Seahawks – 3 at Cards (48):  The Seahawks can still make the playoffs, but it requires a loss by the Packers and a win here over the Cards.  The Cards are 4-12 for the season but two of those four wins have come over teams with an 11-5 record this week (Cowboys and Eagles).  One interesting aspect of the game is that the Cards are vulnerable to a passing game and the Seahawks are vulnerable to a running game.  So, which offensive “strength” will carry the day?  Purely a hunch, but I’ll take the Cards with the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Jets at Pats – 2 (30.5):  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  When the game kicks off, the combined records of the two teams will be 10-22; both teams have been playoff after-thoughts for about a month; neither team is viable at the QB position.  The Jets rank dead last in the AFC in Total Offense; the Pats are 14^th out of 16 teams in the AFC in that category.  This game could wind up as a 10-10.  If so, it would be a fitting end to the season for both teams.

Jags – 3.5 at Titans (39.5):  The Jags are in the playoffs with a win; the Titans have been eliminated for a couple of weeks now.  The Jags have played much better on the road this year than they have at home.  They are 5-2 on the road and only 4-5 at home.  The Titans have a more “normal” home and away record this year; they are 4-4 at home and 1-7 on the road.  Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder injury has him listed as “Questionable” which makes this a non-wagering proposition.

Broncos at Raiders – 3 (38):  This spread has a lot of variation this morning.  You can find it as low as 1-point and as high as 3.5 points at various sportsbooks.  No, I have no explanation for this.  The Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham at QB again; cynics might say that they do so to cement in their minds that they need to acquire a real QB for the 2024 season.  The Raiders will play Aiden O’Connell at QB – – probably having already decided that he is not their “QB of the future”.

Vikes at Lions – 3.5 (46):  For the Vikes to make the playoffs, I believe they must win here and then have the Packers, the Bucs and the Seahawks all to lose this week.  I am not sure why the Lions have not announced that they will be resting some starters, but that is the status as of this morning.

Bucs – 4 at Panthers (37.5):  The Bucs have a simple task at hand; win and you’re in the playoffs.  The Panthers have won only twice this year – – but both of those wins came at home.  I saw a report that Baker Mayfield can earn a significant bonus in his contract if the Bucs win the NFC South division; he can also enhance his value as a free agent QB with a playoff appearance.

Chiefs at Chargers – 3.5 (35):  Yet one more game where one team is in the playoffs as a division winner and another team that is on the outside looking in.  The QB confrontation here will be Blaine Gabbert (Chiefs) versus Easton Stick (Chargers).  Curb your enthusiasm …

So, let me review this week’s 6-element “Betting Bundle”:

• Washington + 4.5 against Michigan
• Washington/Michigan UNDER 56.5
• Browns +7.5 against Bengals
• Bears +3.5 against Packers
• Ravens +4 against Steelers
• Cards +3 against Seahawks

            And here is a Money Line parlay for fun:

• Bears @ +145
• Bucs @ minus-240   $100 wager to win $247.

Finally, I’ll close here with these words from Bear Bryant about an important aspect of college football:

“It’s kind of hard to rally around a math class.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………