Earlier this week, my long-suffering wife and I had good friends come to our home for dinner. One of the guests said that as a retiree, she thought it wasn’t quite right for her to say TGIF since she had not put in a full work week and every day of the week in retirement is pretty much like every other day. In general, I agree with that position.
However, here in Curmudgeon Central, Friday is a “special day” because Friday manifests itself as Football Friday which identifies that day as different from the other six. Lemony Snicket famously asked:
- “Why Is This Night Different From All Other Nights?”
I will answer for Fridays during the daytime in this part of the world simply by commencing this Football Friday in the usual manner – – reviewing last week’s “Betting Bundle”.
- [Aside: Until the last two weeks, the “Betting Bundle” has not been embarrassing when subjected to review; however, in the last two weeks the combined record is 1-5-0 which is shameful.]
Anyhow …
- College: 0-0-0 => Season: 19-9-0
- NFL: 1-2-0 => Season: 18-19-0
- Parlays: 1-1 Profit: $17 => Season: 8-13 Loss: $130
College Football Commentary:
Yesterday, Florida State announced a “special board of trustees meeting” to be held today. Reports are that the major item on the agenda is the Seminoles’ continued presence in the ACC. That conference represents that it has an “ironclad grant of rights” from all its member schools that cannot be tinkered with until 2036. Naturally, the terms and conditions of that ironclad document have never been challenged in court, the actual level of “ironcladedness” is still to be ascertained.
Seminoles’ fanboys are still hurting by the fact that undefeated Florida State was bumped from the CFP this year by not one but two teams with a loss on their record. More than a few commentators who believe that strength of schedule matters in decisions such as the invitation to the CFP can rightly point to the fact that Florida St. did not play a schedule one might characterize as “Murderers’ Row”. Nevertheless, that is not the motive force behind today’s meeting to consider the collegiate athletics version of “secession”.
As is always the case, the issue is money. In terms of payments to the various schools in the ACC based on TV rights fees and revenues from the ACC Network, the ACC members get as much as $30M per year less than schools in the Big 10. One of the trustees tipped his hand as regards his position on today’s agenda item when he was quoted as saying:
“It’s not a matter of if we leave [the ACC], but how and when we leave.”
So, allow me a flight of fancy here and let me assume that Florida St. finds a way out of its commitment to the ACC. Where might the Seminoles take up new residence – – assuming that another conference might want them?
- SEC: Geographically and regarding rivalries, this makes the most sense. But does Florida want rival Florida St. as a conference foe? And that would give the SEC an odd number of schools which becomes a scheduling headache.
- Big 10: Geographically, this makes almost no sense. Look at the footprint of the Big 10 and ponder these questions:
Is Ohio St. the closest school in the Big 10 to Florida St. or is it Maryland?
How lovely will road trips to Washington and Oregon be?
- Big 12: The simple question here is, how much more money would Florida St. get as a Big 12member compared to staying in the ACC? I do not know the answer to that question, but I would be surprised if it was a huge amount.
- Independent: Florida St. was an independent for much of its football history; it only joined the ACC in 1992 in the middle of Bobby Bowden’s tenure there. There is no pot of gold in terms of TV revenues for an independent team unless the name is Notre Dame. I think this is a non-starter of an option.
News out of Oxford MS is that Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss have reached an agreement for a contract extension for Coach Kiffin. Details of the extension were not announced but state law in Mississippi does not allow state employees – – such as Kiffin – – to get extensions greater than 4 years. This extension – – if it is indeed for 4 years – – would be a career departure for Lane Kiffin.
Lane Kiffin’s coaching career has been peripatetic to say the least.
- He began his head coaching experience with the then Oakland Raiders in 2007.
- In 2009, he was the head coach at Tennessee.
- He took over the USC job in 2010 and remained there through the 2013 season.
- From 2013 through 2016, he was the Offensive Coordinator at Alabama.
- From there through 2019, Kiffin was the head coach at Florida Atlantic.
- In December 2019, he signed on with Ole Miss. If he stays through a 4-year extension, he will have been at Ole Miss for 9 years. Unheard of …
NFL Commentary:
The NFC South is both pathetic and exciting. None of the four teams has a winning record as of this morning (pathetic) but three of the four are within one game of one another (exciting). The Bucs lead the division today with a record of 7-7 (based on tiebreakers) and the Bucs won the division last year with a regular season record of 8-9. Here is what Bucs ‘coach Todd Bowles had to say about the next three weeks of this year’s regular season:
“It’s the playoffs for everybody right now. We’ve got to show up and do the right things we can to win the game. We’re all banged up, we’re all fighting for spots… I don’t really care where we play at, as long as we get in.”
Tom Brady was not generous in his comments on the quality of NFL football on display this season. I did some counting and assuming that I got it right, there have been 244 regular season games to date in 2023. Of those games, 155 of them (69.2%) have been one-score games. [Aside: I define “one-score” as 8 or fewer points.] So, does that large fraction of close games represent league parity or does it mean there are not enough very good teams that can go out and beat up on “the rest of the league” routinely. It would seem as if Tom Brady is on the side of “not enough good teams”. The NFL probably likes the parity angle and sponsors who bought ads in late 4th quarter time slots don’t care about the underlying reason, but they are happy to have reason for fans to stay tuned in to the very end.
The NFL owners held a meeting recently and one announcement coming from that conclave was that there will be a regular season game played in Sao Paolo, Brazil next year. The league played a regular season game in Germany for the first time this year; next year will give the league exposure in Brazil. I once watched a Super Bowl game at a sports bar in Sydney, Australia and I will not be surprised if the NFL puts on a game there and finds an interested audience there.
The NFL’s 17-game schedule sets up conveniently for a way to schedule 8 international games. With an odd number of regular season games for each team, what the league does is to have one conference hold 9 home games one year and then 8 home games in the next year. Well, if the conference with 9 home games were to be scheduled to play 8 of their conference games overseas, that would send every team in the “9 home-game conference” to another country for one game. If Sao Paulo demonstrates interest in next year’s game, the league could begin this way:
- Three of the eight overseas games in London
- Two of the eight overseas games in Germany
- One of the eight overseas games in Mexico City
- One of the eight overseas games in Sao Paulo
- One of the eight overseas games in Australia
So, let it be written; so, let it be done …
The time has come for a look at last week’s NFL games:
Panthers 9 Falcons 7: I told you this was the Dog-Breath Game of the Week last week … The Falcons scored their TD in the second quarter with about 5 minutes left; they led 7-3 at halftime. Here are the Falcons’ possessions in the second half:
- 6 plays – – 27 yards – – 3:16 Time of Possession – – PUNT
- 3 plays – – 1 yard – – 0:44 Time of Possession – – FUMBLE
- 11 plays – – 51 yards – – 5:57 Time of Possession – – INT
That’s it; that’s the list. The Falcons managed about 80 yards of offense and held the ball for about 10 minutes in a full half of a game against a team that was 1-12 at the kickoff. If the football gods believe in “accountability” they will assure that the Falcons do not win their division after this bed-wetting. I am now convinced that Desmond Ridder is not a “project” at QB; Desmond Ridder is a “mirage” at QB.
Browns 20 Bears 17: The Browns are for real; the defense is excellent, and Joe Flacco is playing as if he were a character in a Hollywood movie about a guy who was watching games on his couch until he got an emergency call to come and be the QB of a pro team. Oh wait; that’s the story of Joe Flacco’s year in 2023. Here is Flacco’s stat line for the game:
- 28 of 44 for 374 yards with 2 TDs and 3 INTs.
One of those INTs was a ball that bounded off the intended receiver’s hands and into the hands of a nearby defender. The Browns won this game despite gaining only 29 yards rushing on 18 carries. The Bears led this game by 10 points in the 4th quarter and blew it…
Texans 19 Titans 16 (OT): Case Keenum stepped in for CJ Stroud and won the game for the Texans keeping them in serious contention for a playoff slot. They outgained the Titans 340 yards to 204 yards. The Texans’ defense held Derrick Henry to 9 yards rushing on 16 attempts which is pretty awful in and of itself. But Henry’s long gain for the day was 4 yards meaning he only gained 5 yards on the other 15 carries. The Texans’ defense sacked Will Levis 7 times. The Titans led 13-0 early in the second quarter and then did this for the rest of the game:
- 6 plays – – 9 yards – – PUNT
- 5 plays – – 15 yards – – INT
- 3 plays – – minus-17 yards – – PUNT
- 5 plays – – 26 yards – – PUNT
- 8 plays – – 19 yards – – FIELD GOAL
- 6 plays – – 18 yards – – PUNT
- 3 plays – – 1 yard – – PUNT
- 6 plays – – 13 yards – – PUNT (This was possession #1 in OT)
- 5 plays – – 5 yards – – PUNT (This was possession #2 in OT)
Chiefs 27 Pats 17: This was not a great showing by the Chiefs, but it was good enough to beat a team that is sorely undermanned on offense. Chiefs’ rookie WR, Rashee Rice, had another really good day catching 9 passes for 91 yards and 1 TD.
Saints 24 Giants 6: I said last week that I thought the Giants had “emptied the gun” with Tommy DeVito at QB; the league’s defensive coordinators now have film on him to analyze. It sure seems as if the Saints’ defensive braintrust figured it out in this game; the Saints sacked DeVito 6 times. Total offense for the Giants was only 193 yards. The Giants were also 2 of 16 on third down conversions.
Dolphins 30 Jets 0: The Jets’ OL allowed 6 sacks in the first half of this game; total offense for the Jets was 103 yards and the net passing offense was 80 yards. At halftime, the Jets trailed 24-0 and had generated a net offense of 4 yards. The Jets also turned the ball over 4 times in the game to make this even more of a debacle than it would appear. Playing without Tyreek Hill, the fact that the Dolphins hung 30 points on the Jets’ defense is impressive.
Bucs 34 Packers 20: The Bucs hold onto first place in the NFC South (via tiebreakers) over the Saints with this win. The Packers’ playoff hopes took a major hit with this eighth loss; they cannot win the division and there are five teams in the NFC with only 7 losses. Baker Mayfield lit it up here:
- 22 of 28 for 381 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.
Niners 45 Cards 29: The Cards outgained the Niners 436 yards to 406 yards and lost by 16 points; in the process, the Cards held the ball for more than 34 minutes in the game. Two turnovers – – one of which was a Pick-Six – – did not help the Cards’ cause at all.
Rams 28 Commanders 20: This game was not as close as the score indicates. The Rams lost 2 fumbles inside the Commanders’ 10-yardline after long drives. The Rams are clearly a better team than the Commanders. The Rams gained 445 yards on offense including 196 yards running the ball. At the half, the Rams had 242 yards of offense to the Commanders 82 yards of offense. Jacoby Brisset relieved Sam Howell in the game and led the Commanders to 2 TDs; does that mean the Commanders will give up on Howell? They should not …
Bills 31 Cowboys 10: The shock here is that the Cowboys’ offense was held to 195 yards with only 106 yards passing. Even so, the Cowboys had more passing yards than the Bills who only netted 85 yards through the air. What happened is that the Bills ran the ball down the throat of the Cowboys’ defense gaining 266 yards rushing on 49 attempts. Notwithstanding this loss, based on other happenings last weekend, the Cowboys are now assured of a playoff slot in the NFC. The Cowboys are 7-0 at home and only 3-4 on the road this year. All the talk about Dak Prescott as MVP needs to take a short break here after he posted this rancid stat line:
- 21 of 34 for 134 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT
Ravens 23 Jags 7: The Ravens dominated this game from the beginning and this win assures the Ravens of an AFC playoff slot. This is the third loss in a row for the Jags giving them the same record as the Colts and the Texans, but the Jags remain in the lead in the AFC South via tiebreakers. The Jags continue to confound regarding their home and road records:
- Jags at Home = 3-5
- Jags Away = 5-1
The Jags all but gave the game away in the first half when they got inside the Ravens’ 40-yard line 4 times. For their trouble, the Jags netted exactly zero points. They missed two field goals; Trevor Lawrence lost a fumble; and then they gave away a shot at a chip-shot field goal with some horrible clock management at end the first half.
Bengals 27 Vikes 24 (OT): The Vikes under the direction of Nick Mullens outgained the Bengals by 46 yards in the game; Mullens posted what looks like an impressive stat line until you notice that both INTs were in the Red Zone. Overall, Mullens went:
- 26 of 33 for 303 yards with 2 TDs and those 2 INTs in the Red Zone.
The Bengals trailed 17-3 at the start of the 4th quarter; this was a heroic comeback win. The loss is the 7th this season for the Vikes meaning they are in a scramble with 4 other NFC teams for a playoff slot. The Bengals’ win gives them an 8-6 record and keeps them alive in the AFC playoff picture for now.
Colts 30 Steelers 13: The Colts remain in the playoff picture in the AFC: the Steelers are now only a mathematical possibility. The Steelers’ offense was a no-show again last week generating only 216 yards for the game. With 14 minutes to go in the second quarter, the Steelers led 13-0. After that the offense went into hibernation:
- 3 plays – – 14 yards – – INT
- 6 plays – – 31 yards – – PUNT
- 3 plays – – 9 yards – – HALFTIME
- 1 play – – 2 yards – — FUMBLE
- 3 plays – – minus-2 yards – – PUNT
- 8 plays – – 36 yards – – PUNT
- 7 plays – – 26 yards – – INT
- 4 plays – – minus-8 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
- 2 plays – – 13 yards – – GAME OVER
Lions 42 Broncos 17: So, this week the Lions were the bullies and not the bullied. Here are data to give you a sense of the Lions’ dominance:
- Lions’ Offense = 448 yards Broncos’ Offense = 287 yards.
- Lions’ rushing = 6.6 yards per carry Broncos’ rushing = 3.0 yards per carry
- Lions’ Red Zone = 6 for 6 TDs Broncos’ Red Zone = 2 of 3 for TDs
Here is the offensive output for the Broncos in the first half where they fell behind 21-0:
- 4 plays – – 41 yards – – FUMBLE
- 3 plays – – 1 yard – – PUNT
- 6 plays – – 30 yards – – PUNT
- 3 plays – – minus-12 yards – – PUNT
- 7 plays – – 11 yards – – PUNT
- 1 play – – minus-1 yard – – HALFTIME
Do the math. The Broncos gained 70 yards on 24 plays in 2 quarters of football …
Games This Week:
There has been a lot of talk about how important this week’s games are for the handful of players who are in contention for the 2023 MVP Award. Ordinarily, I prefer to ignore those sorts of speculations until the season is over, but I do want to make one exception. For this year’s Comeback Player of the Year, my vote – – if I had one – – would have been locked in on Monday night November 13th. On that night, Damar Hamlin was active, played in the game and made one tackle. Later in the season, he doubled those stats giving him 2 tackles in 2 games in 2023. And for that, Damar Hamlin is my unquestioned choice as the Comeback Player of the Year. I will listen to no arguments to the contrary!
(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Bengals – 3 at Steelers (38): The spread opened as a “pick ‘em” game and has trended to the Bengals all week long. The two teams have been headed in opposite directions over the past month with the Bengals on a three-game winning streak and the
Steelers losing three in a row. Mitchell Trubisky goes to the bench this week in favor of Mason Rudolph; I have no idea if that is an upgrade, a downgrade or just a lateral arabesque. The Bengals will be without Jamar Chase for the game; that is a downgrade for the Bengals’ offense. Count this as an elimination game for the Steelers. The Bengals need the win to continue their favorable positioning in the AFC wildcard race. AFC North games are always fun to watch and this one should be no exception.
(Sat 8:30 PM ET) Bills – 13 at Chargers (44): This line has flown all over the place this week. It opened with the Bills as 9-point favorites; then it soared to 14 points and even 14.5 points around Tuesday and early Wednesday. Then came a flow of “Chargers money” dropping the line to 11 at which point “Bills’ money” showed up again and settled the line between 12.5 and 13.5 depending on which book you are looking at. The Bills’ offense has been clicking recently and the Chargers’ defense is porous to say the least. I am tempted by the OVER because I think there is a reasonable chance that the Bills will score in the high 30s here, but I will resist that because I fear the football equivalent of what Wall Street calls the “dead cat bounce” – – if you drop a dead cat from high enough, it will bounce a little bit once it lands. Wall St. thinks about that as financially troubled stocks crater in value; I worry about it in the NFL sense when a bad team fires its coach, and the bad team puts it together for a game or two and looks less bad.
Colts at Falcons – 2.5 (44.5): I gave this game a passing thought as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because neither team is fun to watch. However, the game is important to both teams regarding their playoff aspirations this season, so I dropped that thought. The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke in favor of Desmond Ridder here; the Colts will continue to go with “The 2023 Gardner Minshew Experience”. If you think you have a handle on the outcome of this game, teach me how to read the entrails of goats.
Packers – 5 at Panthers (37): Two weeks ago, the Packers looked like a shoo-in for a wild card slot in the NFC playoffs – – and then proceeded to lose 2 games in a row. They remain “in the hunt” but it is not clear to me whether they are predators or prey at this juncture. What I know is that the Panthers’ offense has been putrid all year long and has not scored an offensive TD in the last two games – – coaching change notwithstanding. The key here is for the Packers to stop the Panthers from running the football because the Packers’ defense has been vulnerable to the run all season long.
Browns – 1.5 at Texans (40.5): Here is a stat I ran across earlier this week:
- The Texans are 4-1 against teams who arrive at the kickoff with winning records. Only two teams are better so far this year:
- The Niners are 5-0 and the Ravens are 5-1 against such opponents.
- That is lofty company for the 2023 Houston Texans.
Oh, by the way, the Browns have a winning record as of this morning … This game has serious implications for both teams and their playoff hopes. I love the Texans as a storyline for the 2023 NFL season, but I like the Browns storyline too; I think the Browns’ defense wins this one; I’ll take the Browns to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Seahawks – 3 at Titans (41): The Titans’ QB is a game-time decision. Will Levis hurt his ankle last week after taking 7 sacks against the Texans; the Titans may need to go back to Ryan Tannehill for this game. Geno Smith is set to return for the Seahawks this week. The Titans are eliminated from the playoff chase, but the Seahawks took a big step forward last week with their win at home over the Eagles. Another win puts them in a positive position; a loss would be difficult to overcome.
Commanders at Jets – 3 (37): Here you have it, folks; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. The two teams line up at the kickoff with a combined record of 9-19. In addition, consider all this:
- The Jets are last in the NFL in Total Offense and average only 14.4 points per game.
- The Commanders are last in the NFL in Total Defense and give up 30.2 points per game.
As Frank Sinatra sang:
“Somethin’s gotta give; somethin’s gotta give’ somethin’s gotta give …”
As an added element of putrescence for the game, the Jets will start Trevor Siemian at QB; he will be the fourth Jets’ starting QB of this season. With Zach Wilson questionable due to concussion protocol, Siemian’s backup would be Brett Rypien. I wonder what the OVER/UNDER line for Total Punts in the Game might be…?
Lions – 3 at Vikes (47): The Vikes’ defense under the tutelage of Brian Flores blitzes more often than any other team this year and their success with their blitzes is what fuels the defense, The Lions are second in the NFL in rushing offense and if the Lions can run the ball effectively it will limit the effectiveness of the Vikes’ blitzes and minimize the opportunities for the Vikes to deploy them. The Lions can wrap up the NFC North title with a win here; a loss for the Vikes is not fatal to their playoff chances – – but a loss will hurt. If you like trends:
- The Vikes have covered five games in a row when they were the underdog.
- The Vikes are the underdog here.
Jags at Bucs – 2 (40): The spread opened with the Jags as 3-point favorites; then came reports that Trevor Lawrence was in the concussion protocol and the line shifted almost immediately to this number. The fact that it has remained there tells me that the betting public expects Lawrence to miss the game this week. If so, it will be the first time in his NFL career than he has not been the starting QB for the Jags, This is a big game for both teams; the Bucs have won 3 in a row and lead the NFC South based on tiebreakers but need a win to maintain that position; the Jags have lost 3 games in a row and have squandered their lead in the AFC South such that they now have the same record (8-6) as the Colts and the Texans in that division.
Cowboys at Dolphins – 1 (49.5): The spread opened with the Cowboys as 1-point favorites, and it has bounced around between those two numbers all week. A huge question for this game is the availability of Tyreek Hill for the Dolphins; reports say he was a “full participant” in practice with the team this week. I guess that means he will play… Both teams’ scoring average is more than 30 points per game – – and so I wonder why the Total Line is as low as it is and has been steady around that level all week. The Cowboys’ road-game troubles have been chronicled to death and this is a road-game for the Cowboys against a team with a solid winning record. Can they find a cure for their “road-game aversion”? Maybe the oddsmakers are sucking me in here, but I think this game goes OVER the Total Line comfortably; put that in the “Betting Bundle:”
Cards at Bears – 4 (43.5): This could have been the Dog-Breath Game of the Week; it is little consequence and neither team is a compelling attraction. Both teams have a shot at owning the Overall #1 pick in the draft next year thanks to the Bears’ acquisition of the Panther’s pick. So, losing this game is not much of a setback for either team.
(Sun Nite) Pats at Broncos – 6 (34): The Total Line opened at 36 points and has been eroding all week long; you can find it at 33.5 points at one sportsbook this morning. Frankly, I have no idea how the Pats are going to move the ball effectively against the Broncos’ defense; the Pats’ offense is anemic at best. The weather forecast says there could be snow in Denver this weekend with accumulations up to 5 inches. That should not assist the Pats’ offense even a little bit. The Broncos still have hope for the playoffs and should be motivated beyond the level for the Pats; I’ll take the Broncos at home to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Mon 1:00 PM ET) Raiders at Chiefs – 11 (41): This is a rivalry game that goes back to the origins of the old AFL in the 60s. Since Patrick Mahomes arrived in KC, the Chiefs are 10-1 against the Raiders. The Chiefs will be the AFC West champions if they win here; I believe the Raiders will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with a loss.
(Mon 4 :30 PM ET) Giants at Eagles – 13.5 (42.5): Given the way the Eagles have been playing over the last month, I would be hard pressed to make them a 13.5-point favorite over a USFL team. Last week, the Eagles unveiled a new defensive play caller, and that change produced no new results. The Giants also stunk out the joint last week (see above) gaining less than 200 yards passing and allowing Tommy DeVito to be sacked 7 times. Motivation for this game is both simple and subtle:
- The Eagles are in the playoffs for sure; the Giants are out of the playoffs for sure.
- The Eagles can lead the NFC East with a win and a Cowboys’ loss.
- The Giants can avoid – – for now – – double-digit losses in the season with a win.
(Mon Nite) Ravens at Niners – 5.5 (47): As if you needed any clarification, this is the Game of the Week. In fact, if I were to make a Super Bowl prediction, I would say that this is the pairing we will see come February 2024. The Ravens’ defense leads the NFL in points allowed (16.1 points per game). The Niners’ offense averages 30.4 points per game (3rd in the NFL). The Ravens have won 4 games in a row; the Niners have won 6 games in a row – – and all 6 of those wins were double-digit wins. The Niners have already wrapped up the NFC West title; they have their eye on the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs with all their playoff games coming at home. The Ravens lead the Browns by 2 games in the AFC North this morning with 3 games left to play; that puts them in great shape for a division title, but they too want the #1 seed in their playoff bracket, and they lead the Dolphins by 1 game in that chase. Count this game as appointment viewing …
So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:
- Browns – 1.5 over Texans
- Cowboys/Dolphins OVER 49.5
- Broncos – 6 over Pats.
And just for fun, here are two Money Line Parlays:
- Bengals @ minus-150
- Browns @ minus-145 $100 wager to win $182.
And …
- Jets @ minus-160
- Bears @ minus-205 $100 wager to win $142.
Finally, here is a cathartic comment from former Ohio St. head coach, Woody Hayes:
“There’s nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………