Serious college football goes on hiatus at this time of year – – save for the Army/Navy game this weekend – – but that does not mean that “football” takes a break. And for that reason, Football Friday will not take a break. So, I shall begin where all these rants begin – – a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- College = 1-1-0 => Season = 19-9-0
- NFL = 1-2-0 => Season = 17-14-0
- Parlay = 0-1 Loss = $100 => Season = 7-11 Loss = $47
College Football Commentary:
I am not going to comment on every single college football bowl game because some of them are of less interest than a treatise on athlete’s foot fungus prevalence in woodpeckers. But I do think that sixteen of the minor bowl games deserve comment:
- Famous Toastery Bowl featuring W. Kentucky versus Old Dominion. Unless you have a relative playing in this game or if you have a confidence pool where you had to pick a winner here, there is NO good reason for anyone else to give a rat’s ass about this matchup.
- Fenway Bowl featuring BC against SMU. Without BC in this game, they would be lucky to have a live audience of more than 10,000. If the weather is beastly, they may only draw 7500 to the stands for this one…
- Potato Bowl featuring Ga St. versus Utah St. With a high degree of confidence, I predict that “State” will win this game.
- Pop Tarts Bowl will match NC State against K-State. With a high degree of confidence, I predict that “State” will win this game. There’s an echo in here …
- Las Vegas Bowl featuring Utah and Northwestern. Only pay attention to this game if you love defensive football. The Total Line opened at 43 points and has been eroding to the current number at 41.5 points. The game will not kick off until Dec 23rd, so there is ample opportunity for that line to go lower.
- 68 Ventures Bowl matches two directional schools – – South Alabama and E. Michigan. The first of the “68 Ventures” here would be for give a rat’s ass about this game.
- Texas Bowl features Texas A&M and Oklahoma St.: Both fanbases expect the moon and the stars from their stalwarts. One will be ecstatic after this game and the other will be despondent beyond rational measure.
- Pinstripe Bowl played in Yankee Stadium pits Rutgers against Miami (FL). Other than demonstrating that Rutgers does not move the needle regarding TV ratings in the NYC area and that Rutgers’ alums will not pack Yankee Stadium to the gills, what is the point of this game?
- Fiesta Bowl pairs Oregon and undefeated Liberty. Big game for both teams – – even if it is of no import regarding national rankings.
- Gator Bowl has two teams whose seasons are mirror images. Kentucky started the season at 5-0 and finished 7-5. Clemson lost plenty of early games and finished the season with 4 straight wins including over UNC and Notre Dame.
- LA Bowl has an interesting story in one of the teams, Boise St. They fired the head coach in mid-season and still won the MWC championship and this bowl game invitation. That is an atypical season to say the least …
- Cure Bowl matches Appalachian St. and Miami (OH). It is not clear to me what malady might be cured with that pairing…
- Hawaii Bowl has Coastal Carolina versus San Jose St. There will be a ton of frequent flier miles accumulated by the Chanticleers on this trip.
- Citrus Bowl this year should be labeled as the Yin/Yang Bowl. Tennessee wins by outscoring opponents; they average over 31 points per game. Iowa never comes close to scoring 31 points in a game and yet Iowa has a 10-3 record.
- Sun Bowl might be the best of the minor bowl games this year with Notre Dame playing Oregon St. These are two very good football teams.
- Armed Forces Bowl is where James Madison University landed once it was eligible for a bowl bid when there were not enough 6-win teams in the country to fill all the slots. This game will happen on Dec 23rd in the late afternoon time slot and should be a fun game to watch.
Here is a review of some action from last weekend:
Texas 49 Oklahoma St. 21: This was no contest. Check out just a few stats from the game:
- Texas Total Offense = 662 yards OK St. Total Offense = 281 yards
- OK St. Rushing Offense = 31 yards on 16 attempts (1.9 yards per carry)
- Texas third-down conversions = 10 of 16
Boise St. 44 UNLV 20: Another game of domination… Boise St, gained 527 yards and UNLV only gained 298. Boise St rushing offense was 301 yards – – just a tad more than UNLV’s total offense. Both teams have gotten bowl bids; this will be the first bowl game appearance for UNLV in a decade.\
SMU 26 Tulane 14: SMU smothered Tulane’s ground game yielding only 31 net yards rushing in the game and Tulane was only able to convert 2 of 15 third-down situations. SMU survived a game where it turned the ball over 3 times. Tulane led 7-0 after a turnover with 14:50 left in the first quarter. From that point until halfway through the third quarter, Tulane was shut out.
Alabama 27 Georgia 24: Georgia’s 29-game winning streak is no more. The game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard. Two weeks ago, Alabama could not stop Auburn’s run game; in this game, Alabama only gave up 78 yards rushing.
Florida St. 16 Louisville 6: Check these stats:
- Florida St. Total Offense = 219 yards Louisville Total Offense = 188 yards
- Florida St. First Downs = 12 Louisville First Downs = 10
- Two teams combined on third-down situations to go 5 of 33
Was this a “Defensive Battle for the Ages” or “Two Incompetent Offenses”? The answer – to me – is a qualified “Yes” to both questions. The Seminoles’ defense was smothering; the Seminoles’ offense was marginal at best.
Michigan 26 Iowa 0: Iowa managed to gain a total of 149 yards in the game on 56 offensive plays (2.7 yards per offensive snap). That meager output generated all of 7 first downs in the game.
Liberty 49 New Mexico St. 35: Liberty finishes the season undefeated at 13-0. This was a game where both defenses never got off the team bus:
- Liberty Total Offense = 711 yards
- NM St. Total Offense = 499 yards
- Combined Total Offense = 1210 yards
- Teams combined to achieve 60 first downs.
- NM St. averaged 7.9 yards per offensive play – – and LOST the game.
- Liberty averaged 10.2 yards per offensive play.
Liberty QB, Kaidon Salter produced these stats in the game:
- 20 of 25 for 319 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs – – Plus – –
- 12 rushes for 165 yards and 1 TD.
Washington 34 Oregon 31: The Huskies won the stat sheet more convincingly than they won the game on the scoreboard. They outgained the Ducks by 119 yards which usually produces a win by more than a field goal. Washington RB, Dillon Johnson produced these stats:
- 28 carries for 152 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and 2 TDs – – Plus – –
- 2 of 2 passing for 5 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs.
Games this Week:
Army – 3 vs. Navy (29.5): The spread opened with Army as a 1-point favorite, but that line has been climbing steadily all week; one Internet sportsbook has it at 3.5 points. The total Lime opened at 31 points and has been dropping all week. A different Internet sportsbook has the Total Line as low as 27.5 points this morning. Games between the service academies are always worth watching. The players give max effort on every play; there is no showboating even after great individual plays; the celebrations are organic and not of the “Hey, Look At Me” variety. I am tempted to take this game to stay UNDER even that extremely low Total Line; remember that the Navy defense has shut out three opponents this year. But I will resist that temptation.
I believe it was last year – – it may have been a couple of years ago – – one of the Navy fans in attendance had a sign that was put on the air in a crowd shot.
- Why doesn’t Army Football have its own website?
- They can’t string three “W” s together!
NFL Commentary:
One of the important positions that has come to the fore recently in the NFL is the “Backup QB”. Fifty-three different players have been the starting QB for NFL teams so far in 2023 and Trevor Lawrence is questionable for this weekend. When GMs are in “roster building mode” they need to spend some time – – and maybe a bit of their salary cap money too – – acquiring a competent backup QB. Even with the enhanced restrictions on defensive players teeing off on opposing QBs, it is about an even bet that a team will need its backup QB at some point in the season.
- [Aside: The Giants, the Jets and the Vikes have all started 3 different QBs this season and the Browns have started 4 different QBs.]
Speaking of the Jets and their three different starting QBs, the team released Tim Boyle this week. To complete that move, the Jets signed Brett Rypien. Maybe Rypien is an upgrade over Tim Boyle – – that is not a given – – but here are some data to indicate that he might not be a permanent solution to the Jets’ QB situation:
- In January 2023, Rypien was part of the Denver Broncos.
- In May 2023, he signed with the Rams and presumably moved to the LA area.
- In November 2023, he signed with the Seahawks and presumably moved to the Seattle area.
- In December 2023, he signed with the Jets and presumably moved to the NYC area.
Those data tell me two things:
- He shows few if any flashes of brilliance in training/practice sessions.
- He is more likely to be named ‘Man of the Year” by United Van Lines than he is by any NFL fanbase.
Lots of coverage and commentary this year has centered on CJ Stroud and his leadership/performance as the rookie QB for the Texans. To some extent, Stoud’s excellent rookie season has detracted from the attention that should be paid to the performance of his rookie teammate – – and also high draft pick – – LB Will Anderson. He is also an “impact player”, one that offensive coaches need to plan around as they put together their play-calling sheets.
I have begun to create a hypothesis about “evolutionary trends” that have shaped the current state of NFL football. In today’s game, the running game has been de-emphasized and running backs as a position group have been “devalued”. For a while now, I have simply ascribed that to the fact that rule changes have all been in the direction of making the passing game in the NFL easier on and more rewarding to offensive units. Ergo, pass the ball more than run it …
But I wonder if there is another factor at work here. College football shows a similar – and maybe even a greater – disdain for the running game. In many college games, you will see offenses lining up with 4 WRs and an empty backfield at least five times as frequently as you will see them with two RBs in the offensive set. Most college teams do not run the ball nearly as often as they used to.
And that leads to the “graduation” of college offensive linemen for whom any sort of run blocking more complicated than the simple “down-block” represents the need for a learning curve. In 2023:
- 24 teams (75% of the NFL) have thrown the ball on first down 75% of the time.
I am beginning to think that teams are eschewing run plays as much because they do not have enough competent run-blocking offensive linemen as they are avoiding them for higher productivity passing plays. It is only a hypothesis; I will hope to refine it over time …
Just to keep you up to date, Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell was sacked 4 times last week bringing his season total to 58 sacks in 13 games. That projects to 75.8 sacks for a 17-game season. The NFL record for sacks in a season is 76. Tension mounts …
Let me review last week’s NFL action:
Bengals 34 Jags 31 (OT): Jake Browning is the story of this game having shown not much more than mediocrity the week before. Here is his stat line:
- 32 of 37 for 354 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
- 2 rushing attempts for 22 yards and 1 TD.
The longer-term issue from this game is Jags’ QB, Trevor Lawrence, suffering a “high ankle sprain”. How long might that affect the level of his play – – assuming he can play at all for the next couple of games? That is an important question for a team with only a one-game lead in the AFC South and a backup QB – – CJ Beathard – – who is also listed as “questionable”.
Cards 24 Steelers 10: This game was much closer on the stat sheet than it was on the scoreboard. The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett to an ankle injury meaning that three of the four teams in the AFC North have had injuries to their starting QBs this season. James Connor was the workhorse for the Cards carrying the ball 25 times for 105 yards and 2 TDs.
Falcons 13 Jets 8: No, the Jets did not score a TD plus a 2-point conversion; their 8 points came on two field goals and a safety. The Jets went to QB #3 on the roster, Trevor Siemian, and the results were not significantly different from what they got from either Zack Wilson or Tim Boyle. The Jets’ defense should sue the offense for non-support. In this game, the Falcons only got 194 yards of Total Offense and the Falcons won the game. Last week, I said that Desmond Ridder would be “the best QB on the field”. Well, I was correct despite this stat line for Ridder:
- 12 of 27 for 121 yards with 1 TD.
Texans 22 Broncos 17: The Texans played well, but in reality, the Broncos lost the game more than the Texans won it. Consider:
- Broncos’ Turnovers = 3 Texans’ Turnovers = 0
- Broncos third-down conversions = 0 for 11
- Broncos = 5.7 yards per pass attempt Texans = 8.1 yards per pass attempt
The Broncos’ 5-game winning streak was snapped with this loss, but the AFC West got more interesting because the Chiefs also lost. That means the Broncos did not lose any ground with their loss and since the Chargers won last week, they gained on everyone else in the division. (The Raiders were on a BYE Week.) The Texans remain in excellent position for a playoff slot; this morning they are tied with the Colts – – only one game behind the Jags in the AFC South. The Broncos have come around to being a good football team; this win for the Texans is a significant one.
Niners 42 Eagles 19: The Eagles had also won 5 in a row coming into this game as had the Broncos – – and both streaks came to an end last week. This was not a fluke; the Niners were the better team on the field from start to finish outgaining the Eagles by 123 yards on the day. It may be time for the Eagles’ fans to start worrying about the Eagles’ defense. This is the fourth game this year that the Eagles have given up more than 30 points.
Lions 33 Saints 28: This game was dead-even on the stat sheet save for 2 turnovers by the Saints and no turnovers by the Lions. The Lions maintain a 3-game lead in the NGFC North while the Saints fall a game behind the Falcons – – and a tiebreaker behind the Bucs – – in the NFC South. For the record, the last time the Lions were 9-3, was in 1962; to put some perspective on that, here are some of the personnel from the 1962 Detroit Lions:
- Defensive Tackle – – Alex Karras
- Defensive Tackle – – Roger Brown
- Linebacker – – Joe Schnidt
- DB – – Night Train Lane
- DB – – Dick LeBeau
- Defensive Coordinator – – Don Shula
Colts 31 Titans 28 (OT): Gardner Minshew had a big day here with this stat line:
- 26 of 42 for 312 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs
The Colts have now won 4 games in a row tied with the Niners and Cowboys for the longest current win streak in the NFL. Derrick Henry ran for two TDs for the Titans before having to leave the game as part of the concussion protocol.
Chargers 6 Pats 0: The Pats are the first team in the NFL since 1938 to hold opponents to 10 points or fewer in three consecutive games and to lose all three games. The Pats actually outgained the Chargers in the game 257 yards to 241 yards. Both “scoring drives” by the Chargers that resulted in field goals began in the Pats half of the field. Other than those events, this game was an offensive snoozer. The teams were a combined 9 for 29 on third-down conversions and the teams combined to punt 15 times.
Dolphins 45 Commanders 15: Well, the firing of the Commanders’ defensive coordinator and their defensive backs coach seems to have fixed – – not a whole lot. Not only did the Commanders give up 45 points, but they also gave up some prodigious passing stats:
- Tua Tagovailoa was 18 of 24 for 280 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs
- Tyreek Hill caught 5 passes for 157 yards and 2 TDs
- Dolphins averaged 11.1 yards per pass attempt.
This is the third game in a row that Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell, threw a Pick-Six. That was Howell’s 14th INT for the season which leads the league. That puts a damper on the stat that shows the Commanders at second in the NFL in passing yardage for the season.
Bucs 21 Panthers 18: The Panthers led the game 10-7 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter but then gave up 2 TDs in the next 8 minutes to give the Bucs a 21-10 lead that would hold up. Bucs’ WR, Mike Evans, caught 7 passes for 162 yards and 1 TD in the game.
Rams 36 Browns 19: Matthew Stafford threw 3 TD passes in the game and the Rams amassed 399 yards of offense against a very good defensive unit. The Rams are now 6-6; are they seriously in the playoff mix? Joe Flacco played well for the Browns as a stopgap QB with this stat line:
- 23 of 44 for 254 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT
The Browns now have two losses in a row. Myles Garret played in this game – – sort of. He had no sacks, no hits on the QAB and no tackles in the game. But he was there and made the Rams “account for him”.
Packers 27 Chiefs 19: The only thing wrong with this game was the officiating in the final minutes of the game where there were several calls made or not made that were simply incorrect. Jordan Love played an excellent game throwing for 267 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs. The Packers are now 6-6 and have won 3 games in a row; Jordan Love has shown growth in all those games. Keep a close eye on the Packers in the playoff race from here forward because none of their remaining 5 opponents would be in the playoffs if the playoffs began this weekend. The Packers might be 11-6 come playoff time …
NFL Games This Week:
This week marks the end of BYE Weeks for NFL teams. There are two teams that have yet to get a week off until now:
- Cardinals: With their current 3-10 record, very few NFL fans will miss their presence this weekend
- Commanders: With their current 4-9 record, very few NFL fans will miss their presence this weekend.
Is there an echo in here …?
In last night’s game, the Pats beat the Steelers 21-18 in Pittsburgh. The Steelers were 5.5-point favorites and the Total Line which opened at 35 points. had been bet down to 30.5 points at the kickoff. Here are some of the reactions I recorded as I watched the game:
- Both teams scored on their first possessions? Are the football gods going to prank us tonight?
- Score is 21-10 at the half – – so the game is already OVER with 30 minutes to play.
- Did the Pats’ offensive staff take some Quaaludes at halftime? Where is the “attack element”?
- Do the Steelers’ offensive gurus even know that Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are on the field?
Steelers’ fans have taken two gut-punches in the last 5 days:
- Last weekend, the Steelers hosted the “2-win Cardinals” and lost straight up.
- Last night, the Steelers hosted the “2-win Pats” and lost straight up.
Ten days ago, the Steelers were 7-4 with two home games against two dog-assed opponents – – and the Steelers lost at home to both of them. This is more than just a big deal for the Steelers’ season. Oh, by the way, the Pats snapped a 5-game losing streak with this win.
Jags at Browns – 3 (32): With the Steelers/Pats game out of the way, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week even though both teams have winning records and are in contention for their division titles. If you “follow the money”, you have to believe that Trevor Lawrence will not be the QB for the Jags in this game. The spread opened with the Jags as 3-point favorites and the Total Line was at 39. The Jags’ offense is probably going to be stuck in second gear here – – but should anyone expect an offensive explosion from the Browns and Joe Flacco?
Rams at Ravens – 7 (38.5): The Rams have won 3 games in a row to put themselves in the picture for an NFC wildcard slot, but this could be a tall order for them. Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua are dealing with injuries and the Rams’ defense will have to deal with Lamar Jackson who is a major problem for teams that have not faced him in the recent past because it is difficult to simulate him with one’s scout team. The Ravens had BYE last week; the Rams will play an early start game coming from 3 times zones away. I like the Ravens at home; I’ll lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Lions – 3 at Bears (43): The Lions opened as 5-point favorites last Sunday night, but the spread has slowly dropped to this level. The Lions are comfortably in first place in the NFC North; the Bears are comfortably in last place in the NFC North.
Panthers at Saints – 5 (38): The Saints have a choice to make this week. Derek Carr was in concussion protocol last week and has had “shoulder issues” for the past couple of weeks. Jameis Winston is healthy – – but he is Jameis Winston meaning that there is no way the Saints’ coaching staff can anticipate what kind of game he will put out there.
Bucs at Falcons – 1 (41): This is an important game. The Falcons lead the NFC South at 6-6; the Bucs – – and the Saints – – are one game behind at 5-7. A road win for the Bucs here plus a Saints win over the hapless Panthers would create a three-way tie for the division lead and would confer a degree of “importance” to subsequent NFC South games. At least that gives me something to root for…
Colts at Bengals – 2 (44): Here is another game where the favorite has changed during the week; the spread opened with the Colts as 2-point favorites. Should you ride with Jake Browning to have another day passing for 350+ yards? Are you ready for another roll of the dice in “Gardner Minshew Land”? If the Jags stumble this week, the Colts can be tied for the lead in the AFC South with a win. No thanks …
Texans – 3.5 at Jets (32): I think this is a significant coaching challenge for DeMeco Ryans. He has a very young team that is right in the thick of the playoff race going on the road to play a Jets’ team that seemingly cannot do anything right. Ryans needs to be sure his guys don’t mail this game in because the Jets defense is for real.
Seahawks at Niners – 10.5 (47): The spread opened with the Niners as 12.5-point favorites, but it dropped to this level very quickly and then held as the week went on. The Seahawks have lost 3 games in a row and have not looked particularly good in any of them. The Niners are on a roll.
Vikes – 3 at Raiders (40): Both teams had BYE Weeks last week so no advantage there. The Vikes must choose which of their QBs to start here. Joshua Dobbs had a bad game two weeks ago; the other two guys are Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall. The Vikes are alive for the NFC playoffs and a loss here would hurt those chances a lot; the Raiders would probably need to win out to be in the discussion for a low seed in the AFC.
Broncos at Chargers – 3 (44): The Chargers’ season is on the line here; that’s all there is to it.
Bills at Chiefs – 1.5 (48): This spread is all over the map. It opened with the Chiefs as 3-point favorites. This morning, you can find it at one sportsbook as a “pick ‘em” game and at another sportsbook with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites – – and just about everywhere in between. This was my runner-up for Game of the Week. This is a huge game for both teams:
- The Bills are 6-6. It could easily take 10 wins to make the AFC playoffs so a loss for the Bills could put them in a situation where they need to win out.
- The Chiefs are 8-4. If they acquire a 5th loss here, they are probably not going to get the first round BYE and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Bills were on their BYE Week last week which could be a slight advantage for them; the game is in KC which is a significant advantage for the Chiefs. I see this as an offense-dominant game; I like it to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sun Nite) Eagles at Cowboys – 3.5 (52): The Cowboys have played 6 home games in 2023 with these results:
- Cowboys are 6-0
- Cowboys point differential in those 6 games = +151
This is the Game of the Week. A Cowboys’ win would create a tie atop the NFC East and a tie for the best record in the NFC – – with the Niners and Lions lurking just a game behind. An Eagles’ win would put them 2 games clear of the Cowboys with only 4 games left to play.
(Mon Nite) Titans at Dolphins – 13.5 (46): The Dolphins were 12-point favorites at the opening, but the line jumped to this level rather quickly. If you like trends, here is one for you:
- Dolphins are 5-0 at home in 2023.
- Titans are 0-6 on the road in 2023.
- Dolphins are at home here; Titans are on the road…
(Mon Nite) Packers – 6.5 at Giants (36): The Packers were only 4.5-point favorites earlier this week, but this line just climbed steadily as time went on. The Packers have won three in a row and Jordan Love seems to improve from game to game. I was impressed by the Packers and by Love last week in the win over the Chiefs. I think the Packers are on a roll and will make the NFC playoffs come January. Nothing remotely similar to those statements apply to the Giants. Even on the road, I’ll take the Packers to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:
- Ravens – 7 over Rams
- Bills/Chiefs OVER 48
- Packers – 6.5 over Giants.
And here is a Money Line Parlay too:
- Packers @ minus-280
- Ravens @ minus-320
- Dolphins @ minus-700 $100 wager to win $104.
I’ll close this week with these words of wisdom from former Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz:
“The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely to be the one who dropped it.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………