Michigan And the Big-10

Yesterday afternoon, I got an email from a friend; he is a graduate of the University of Michigan and the recipient of a graduate degree there.  I lead off this rant with that information because it is important to recognize that he is an intelligent person.  At the same time, he is a huge fan of Michigan Wolverine sports – – and this being early November, Michigan football is his passion.

The email had a lengthy exposition about how the Big 10 and the NCAA and the Illuminati and the Elders of Zion and the United Nations were all in cahoots to “take down Michigan football and Jim Harbaugh specifically”.  That was the easy stuff to deal with.  After about 250 words on that topic, the email veered into orbit.  He said that he had been reading on some Michigan fanboy sites the idea that Michigan should resign from the Big-10 and join the Big-12 where it would dominate even more than it now dominates in the Big 10.  My response to him was that I would use that idea as the topic for today’s rant – – so here goes …

There have been bad decisions made in human history:

  • Napoleon invading Russia with winter impending
  • Shelly Long leaving Cheers to take her career into other venues
  • The Raiders drafting JaMarcus Russell with the overall #1 pick.

I think the idea of Michigan bolting from the Big-10 would be a decision that would be a worthy addition to the list above.  Let me explain.

First, there must be some sort of agreement among all the schools in the Big-10 which creates the conference in the first place, and which spells out things like how a new school might be admitted to the conference and what the penalty would be for a team to leave the conference.  I am not privy to such a document, but it must exist – – AND – – it cannot allow any school to leave the conference simply by saying “three, six, nine, I resign.”  A quick Google search did not give me an answer to the Big-10 exit fee, but it did tell me that the exit fee from the SEC is $45M.

That being the case, I would assume the Big-10 exit fee is of similar magnitude – – meaning that Michigan would have to pay that money to leave the conference with no guarantee that the Big-12 – – or any other conference – – would admit them immediately.  Michigan’s endowment is in the neighborhood of $18B, so it can afford the exit fee almost out of “petty cash” but in addition Michigan would be giving away its share of more than $1B annually in broadcast rights for football alone.

Moreover, I happen to think that college football in general and Big-10 football in specific are going to increase in value significantly over the next 5-10 years:

  • First, the CFP will expand from 4 teams to 12 teams.  The rights fees for those additional 8 playoff games will be huge.  Plus, that addition will increase interest in games played in the regular season because teams with two and possibly three losses could still be in the running for a slot in the CFP.  So, that expansion will provide a new pool of media money to divide up as well as adding interest in the regular season games which would imply a bigger deal next time they all go to the negotiating table with the networks.
  • And on top of that …  The Big-10 expansion puts them in a unique position.  The conference has teams from coast to coast – – as does the Big-12 – – and the Big-10 footprint is squarely in the biggest TV markets in its time zones.  The Big-10 will have a team in or near, NY, Philly, DC, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago, LA, Seattle and Portland.  That list is 10 of the 23 largest TV markets in the US.  Big-10 football has loads of room to grow its brand and its value.

So, even if I were to believe that this sign-stealing affair is being used as a wedge to get Jim Harbaugh out of Ann Arbor – – and for the record, I do not believe that at all – – it would be in Michigan’s financial interest to stay in the Big-10 and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune while continuing to enjoy the conferences’ financial fruits.

There is an ad campaign ongoing for Capital One bank where the spokesthing says that deciding to open an account at Capital One is the easiest decision in the history of decisions.  In my opinion, any decision by Michigan to resign from the Big-10 would merit consideration as the dumbest decision in the history of decisions.  But that’s just me.

Finally, today’s rant centers on the stupidity of one overreaction to the ongoing situation involving Michigan football and Jim Harbaugh.  So, let me close with this remark from satirist, Karl Kraus:

“Stupidity is an elemental force for which no earthquake is a match.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Avert Your Eyes … ?

In case you had not noticed, the NBA regular season is about 10-games old; at the moment the Sixers, Celtics, Nuggets and Mavs have the best records with 8 wins; the Grizzlies, Pistons and Wizards have the worst records with only two wins.  The inaugural NBA Cup – – the in-season tournament concept the league is trying out to give some meaning to these early season games – – is also underway and the 10 games on the NBA calendar for tonight are “Tournament Games”.

I have said here for years that it is difficult to get excited about early season NBA basketball games simply because the players do not exude excitement about those games.  If you watch NBA playoff games, you can see and feel the intensity of the game and the energy expended by the players in those games.  Those elements are missing from most NBA games in November and the absence makes the November games less compelling.

It is easy to tell when you are watching an in-season tournament game this year – – but not because there has been an injection of intensity and energy.  Those elements remain the same.  It is easy to tell a tournament game because someone had the dumb idea to play the games on “specially designed courts”.  Here is the translation for “specially designed courts”:

  • Bold/loud color schemes painted onto the court so that none of the traditional wood grain is showing.
  • A large swath of color runs lengthwise on the court from baseline to baseline and at the center jump circle, there is an image of the NBA Cup which will be presented to the tournament winner.
  • It is as if the league wasn’t sure viewers would know they were watching a tournament game, so they effected an assault on viewers’ optic nerves.

Two other items related to the NBA regular season so far in 2023:

  1. Victor Wembnyama has been “as advertised”.  With all the focus on Wemby, there may not have been sufficient attention paid to Chet Holmgren’ s play so far.  Like Wemby, he is “long and lean” and in the Thunder’s 10 games to date, Holmgren has shot 55% from the field, 50% from e-point range and 90% from the free throw line.
  2. Ever since James Harden whined his way out of Philly and into LA, the Clippers have played 5 games and lost every one of them.

Moving on …  Here in Pennsylvania, lots of folks are getting ready for deer hunting season; the season is set by law (it starts the Saturday after Thanksgiving) and people plan significant portions of their life around it.  Much more subtlely, there is another “hunting season” that starts in November – – but it has no fixed starting date, and it happens – – because it happens.  I refer here to football teams hunting for new head coaches.  The season is open at the NFL level with one coach having been already fired and it is now open at the major college level with the firing of Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M) and Zach Arnett (Mississippi St.).

There are too many college coaches who are on a short leash at this point in the season to enumerate/analyze, but in the NFL, there is a much smaller universe to consider.  So, here are two NFL head coaches who might need to be concerned about their job security – – in addition to the ones I mentioned back in early September as predictions for the NFL 2023 season:

  1. Brian Daboll (Giants):  Yes, the Giants have been hammered by injuries – – particularly at QB – – but the team has been non-competitive too many times so far this season.  And yes, I do recall that Daboll was Coach of the Year just last year.  I still think he needs to find a way to change the vector heading the team seems to be on.
  2. Arthur Smith (Falcons):  The Falcons are a mediocre team at best no matter who the coach is.  But I think there is reason for Smith to be wary when CBSSports.com has an article today with a headline that says, “Falcons not firing Arthur Smith anytime soon.”

Switching gears …  There seems to be a lot of sniping and complaining on the Internet about Al Michaels’ performance doing play-by-play for Thursday Night Football.  Some fans say he is low energy and that he is just mailing it in to collect his “fee” for doing the games and that he no longer cares about broadcasting.  I would accuse those folks of “mind reading without a license”.  I will not pretend to be able to know what is going on in Al Michaels’ head, but I can tell you what I observe when I listen to him and Kirk Herbstreit call a game on Thursday night.

  • I hear the two of them present the game on the field without hysteria.  And frankly, that is a positive turn of events from my perspective.  Far too many other play-by-play guys turn up the volume for anything more than a four-yard gain in the first quarter.
  • From my perspective, the Michaels/Herbstreit duo seem to have defined their combined role as presenting the game in a measured environment rather than a hyperventilated environment.

Finally, John Simon was the drama critic for New York Magazine where he earned the moniker “the Vicar of Vitriol”.  He often presented scathing descriptions of actresses in his reviews; here is one about Barbra Streisand:

“Miss Streisand looks like a cross between an aardvark and an albino rat surmounted by a platinum-colored horse bun.  Though she has good eyes and a nice complexion, the rest of her is a veritable anthology of disaster areas.  Her speaking voice seems to have graduated from the Brooklyn Conservatory of Yentaism and her acting consists entirely of fishily thrusting out her lips, sounding like a cabbie bellyaching at breakneck speed, and throwing her weight around.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Tale Of Two Coaches …

In last week’s Football Friday, I had this to say about the Texas A&M/Mississippi St. game:

“The Aggies need one more win for bowl eligibility.  If they lose this game at home in front of already disgruntled alums, I would suggest that Jimbo Fisher hire a food taster… “

Well, the situation in College Station was even worse than I thought.  The Aggies won the game handily by a score of 51-10; nonetheless, Jimbo Fisher was fired the next day.  According to ESPN.com, the school will buy out Fisher’s contract to the tune of $76M.

“According to the terms of the contract, Texas A&M will owe Fisher $19.2 million within 60 days and then pay him $7.2 annually through 2031. There is no offset or mitigation on those payments, and the annual payments start 120 days after termination.”

So, Fisher will get a lump sum payment by January and then get $7.2M annually for 8 years in exchange for not coaching football at Texas A&M.  This turn of events should be informative for anyone on the list of coaches to take the job at Texas A&M:

  • The administrators and the alums have VERY deep pockets.
  • The administrators and the alums want championships not just wins.
  • The next coach should expect to be paid very well – – and to fail to live up to expectations.

Let me move on to another topic involving a highly visible college football coach – – Jim Harbaugh.  Michigan beat Penn St. on Saturday to remain unbeaten in 2023 and is likely to remain in the Top-4 when the CFP Selection Committee announces its rankings later this week.  The team did this without Harbaugh prowling the sidelines because he has been suspended for 3 games related to an investigation of sign stealing by a person related to Michigan football.  I am conflicted on this matter; let me try to explain.

I have read about the allegations and read a compilation of evidence gathered to date.  From that reading, I am fully convinced that sign-stealing was ongoing and that it was planned and intentional.  Nowhere in my reading have I come across evidence that Jim Harbaugh was deeply involved.  It seems to me that he is being punished/suspended on the basis that the head coach is always responsible for improper activities that go on in the program.

I recognize that sort of “job jeopardy” exists in football, but it certainly is not commonplace in jurisprudence.  If a police officer commits a crime and is convicted of that crime, the city mayor is not thrown out of office because one of the people who “worked for him” ran afoul of the law.  So, I would prefer to know the depth of Jim Harbaugh’s involvement in this endeavor before punishing him.

It seems to me there are four levels of involvement here – – sort of like the circles of Hell in Dante’s Inferno.  Let me start with the worst and go to the least bad:

  • Level 1:  This was all Harbaugh’s idea; he assigned this as a task to one of his underlings.  If that is shown to be the case, throw the book at him; suspend him from coaching college football for a long enough time that he goes and gets an NFL job and ceases to pollute the sport of college football.  And Michigan should fire him for cause and not buy out his contract because he brought shame to the University of Michigan as an institution.
  • Level 2:  Harbaugh knew this was going on; and because he and the team benefited from it, he accepted the information and in doing so, he condoned what is a rules violation.  If that is shown to be the case, Michigan need not fire him, but he should be suspended for a significant period of time – – say 6 months – – and the team should lose a significant number of scholarships that it can issue for several years.
  • Level 3Harbaugh – and his assistant coaches – welcomed the input from the “sign stealers” because it was valuable, but they did not know how the “sign stealers” got so smart.  Maybe the “sign stealers” had developed their own AI algorithms to scope out opposition tendencies and choices.  Whatever …  At this level, Harbaugh, the assistant coaches and the players are passive beneficiaries of someone else’s transgressions.
  • Level 4:  Jim Harbaugh knew nothing of this sign stealing activity until stories about it broke in the newspapers and on ESPN.

Many people say that the idea of denying Michigan a spot in the CFP and or an invitation to a bowl game this year punishes the players who pretty clearly had nothing to do with the rule violation.  So, that seems less than fair.  At the same time, lots of people think it is OK to punish Jim Harbaugh before it is clearly shown where he belongs on the spectrum I outlined above.  The important words in that previous sentence are “clearly shown”.  It is easy to come up with logic chains about what must have been the case, but that is not sufficient.  There needs to be evidence to place Jim Harbaugh – – and maybe some of his assistants? – – on that spectrum so that innocent folks are protected, and guilty folks are punished.

One more important thing to keep in mind as this matter continues to evolve.  We all need to be aware of – and resist as best we can – the condition of “confirmation bias” wherein we selectively pick out nuggets of information that align with our previously held thoughts and conclusions and ignore information that contradicts those beliefs.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 11/10/23

The German philosopher, G.W.F. Hegel, said:

“Napoleon was twice defeated, and the Bourbons twice expelled.  By repetition that which at first appeared merely a matter of chance and contingency, becomes a real and ratified existence.”

And even in these times of technological change, there are things we should rely on based on repetitive experience.

  • The sun rises – – and then it sets.
  • The tide comes in – – and then it goes out.
  • Adam Sandler makes a movie – – and then he does not get an Oscar.

Around here, when Friday rolls around in November, it is time for Football Friday.  Deal with it…

Let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

College:  3-0-0  =>  Season:  14-6-0

NFL:  1-1-0  =>  Season:  11-9-0

Parlays: 1-1  => “Profit” = $25  =>  Season:  7-8  =>  “Season Profit” = $253

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats are now 8-0 for the season after beating Pacific Lutheran last weekend by a score of 42-19.  Similarly, the Pirates of Whitworth University are 8-0 this year having beaten George Fox University last weekend 24-13.  Obviously, both schools are undefeated in conference games and the two teams will meet this weekend in McMinnville, OR to determine the Northwest Conference Champion and a probable invitation to the Division 3 football playoff tournament.  To give you an idea of the way these two teams have dominated conference opponents in 2023, here are the cumulative scores for both teams against the other teams in the Northwest Conference:

  • Whitworth:  293 – 95
  • Linfield:  307 – 92

Go Wildcats!

People reacted to last week’s meeting between Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. as the end of “Bedlam” – as the game is known – because Oklahoma is moving from the Big-12 to the SEC next season.  Frankly, I don’t think that conference switch needs to be definitive regarding the two teams playing each other in football.  Here is why I do not consider this an insurmountable obstacle:

  • Florida and Florida St. are in different conferences and play each other annually.
  • Kentucky and Louisville are in different conferences and play each other annually.
  • Clemson and South Carolina are in different conferences and …
  • Georgia and Georgia Tech are in different conferences …
  • Notre Dame and USC are …
  • Army/Navy/AirForce …

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. want to continue the tradition of “Bedlam” it can be arranged…

In 1920, Warren G. Harding ran successfully for the US Presidency promising the country a “return to normalcy”.  Well, it would appear that the SEC has “returned to normalcy” after last weekend’s results:

  • Alabama is in the driver’s seat in the SEC West after beating LSU by 2 TDs last week.  If Alabama wins either of its remaining conference games (Kentucky or Auburn). The Tide will play in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
  • Georgia beat a good Missouri team last week 30-21 securing their spot in the SEC Championship Game.
  • Both Alabama and Georgia gave their fans some anxieties earlier in this season, but it appears as if “normalcy” has prevailed.

The PAC-12 race still has potential drama.  Washington leads the parade for now with an overall 9 -0 record and a 6-0 conference record.  Oregon’s only conference loss was to Washington.  Four teams are mathematically alive as of this morning with 2 conference losses.

  • Washington:  Has to play Utah, Oregon St. and Washington St.  The Oregon St. game is a road game.
  • Oregon:  Has to play USC, Arizona St. and Oregon St.  The Arizona St. game is on the road.

Both the Huskies and the Ducks should be solid favorites to win out even granting that each team finishes the season against a traditional rival.  If it were to happen that the teams finish one-two in the conference, they would meet again for the PAC-12 Championship…

If you are looking for a large – – and surprising – – turnaround of football fortunes in 2023, check out UNLV.  Since the turn of the century, UNLV has had two winning seasons and six different head coaches.  Their last winning season was in 2013; in the five years leading up to 2023, the Rebels’ combined record was 15-39.

To date in 2023, UNLV’s record is 7-2.  One loss was to Michigan so we can accept the fact that UNLV is still not part of the top echelon of college football.  But the Rebels are bowl-eligible with three games to play in the season.  That is a large and a surprising turnaround of football fortunes…

Here are some comments about games from last week starting in the SEC:

Arkansas 39  Florida 36 (OT):  The Gators still need a win for bowl-eligibility.  Where will that win come from?  In their final 3 games of the season, Florida will be an underdog to LSU (on the road), Missouri (on the road) and Florida St. (at home).  Arkansas was 2-6 coming into the game and has struggled on offense for most if not all of 2023.  Last week, the Razorbacks outgained the Gators by more than 100 yards.  If the Gators lose their last 3 games – – a serious possibility – – that would mean three years in a row for Florida with an overall losing record two of those losing records coming in Billy Napier’s tenure as head coach.  For the record, Florida replaced its last three head coaches with only one losing season on their tab.

Ole Miss 38  Texas A&M 35:  These two teams combined to produce 975 yards and a total of 56 first downs in the game.  The Aggies have now lost 9 consecutive road games and the Aggies are now 5-4.  Finding that sixth win to go to a bowl game should not be difficult since the remaining three opponents are Mississippi St. (at home), Abilene Christian (at home) and LSU (on the road).  Meanwhile, Ole Miss is now 8-1 and has a huge game coming up this weekend at Georgia.

Georgia 30  Missouri 21:  This was a very close game on the stat sheet.  The biggest disparity was in turnovers; Missouri threw 2 INTs in the game and Georgia did not turn the ball over at all.

Kentucky 24  Mississippi St. 3:  The Wildcats are now bowl eligible.

Alabama 42  LSU 28:  The rumors of Alabama’s demise are a bit exaggerated.  The score was tied at halftime; but here are the results of LSU’s possessions in the second half:

  • 9 plays – – 75 yards – – TD
  • 6 plays – – 10 yards – – PUNT
  • 2 plays – – 2 yards – – INT
  • 3 plays – – 9 yards – – PUNT
  • 7 plays – – 48 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

Shifting to ACC games …

UNC 59  Campbell 7:  What better cure for a two-game losing streak than a cupcake opponent?    The Tar Heels amassed 594 yards on offense.

Clemson 31  Notre Dame 23:  That is the third loss for the Irish; if they make a New Year’s Day Bowl Game with 3 losses it will be solely on account of their ability to draw TV ratings.  Clemson improved to 5-4 with this win.

Ga Tech 45  Viriginia 17:  Tech improved its record to 5-4; can it make it to a bowl game?  It won’t be a trivial undertaking; here is the remaining schedule for Tech:

  • At Clemson (and the Tigers need a win for bowl eligibility too)
  • Vs. Syracuse
  • At Georgia

Florida St. 24  Pitt 7:  The Seminoles remain unbeaten in 2023; Pitt falls to 2-7 this year.  Florida St. outgained Pitt by 168 yards in the game; usually, that results in a bigger margin of victory.  Pitt was 0 for 11 on third down conversions here.

Louisville 34  Va Tech 3:  Louisville is alone in second place in the ACC standings behind only Florida St. with this dominating win.

NC State 20  Miami 6:  State became bowl-eligible with this win.  The Wolfpack defense pitched a shutout in the second half of the game to seal the win even though Miami outgained State for the game.  A big problem for the Hurricanes was turning the ball over 4 times in the game.

Duke 24  Wake Forest 21:  The Blue Devils are now bowl eligible.  They won this game despite being outgained on offense by 133 yards.  The margin of victory was a 26-yard field goal as time expired.

And for some Big-12 contests …

Texas 33  K-State 30 (OT):  Texas led 17-0 early in the second period and 27-7 late in the third period, but K-Stata forced OT with a serious comeback.   The Big-12 standings underwent big changes last week; Texas now shares the lead in the conference with a record of 5-1 in conference games.

Oklahoma St. 27  Oklahoma 24:  Oklahoma St. lost at home to South Alabama 33-7 on September 16th.  Since then, the Cowboys are 5-1.  This makes two losses in a row for the Sooners – – both in conference games.  Oklahoma led 21-17 at the start of the 4th quarter.  Here are the OU possessions in the 4th quarter:

  • 4 plays – – 16 yards – – PUNT
  • 1 play – – minus-1 yard – – FUMBLE
  • 6 plays – – 57 yards – – FIELD GOAL
  • 5 plays – – 21 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

With this win, Oklahoma St. joins Texas as the only teams in the Big-12 with only one conference loss.

Kansas 28  Iowa St. 21:  This was a significant loss for Iowa St with regard to Big-12 race.  It was their second conference loss putting them in a mélange of 5 teams with two such losses.

And now for Big-10 action …

Michigan St. 20  Nebraska 17:  The Big 10 West race is inscrutable.  Last week, there were four teams there with 2 conference losses; three of those four teams lost last week; Nebraska was one of them.  Neither team managed to generate 300 yards on offense here.  Nebraska turned the ball over 3 times in the game.

Ohio St. 35  Rutgers 16:  Rutgers led 9-7 at halftime; then Ohio St. woke up.  A Pick-Six early in the third quarter seems to have been the Buckeyes’ wake-up call.  Rutgers outgained Ohio St. for the game on the strength of 232 yards rushing on 44 attempts.

Indiana 20  Wisconsin 14:  Does anyone want to win the Big-10 West?  Wisconsin was more than a TD favorite here and lost outright to a team that had only 2 wins at kickoff time.  For the record, those two victories for Indiana were over Division 1-AA Indiana St. and SHOE Tournament probable, Akron.  Wisconsin won the stat sheet but turned the ball over twice in the game.  The Badgers have lost three of their last four games.

Illinois 27  Minnesota 26:  Illinois lost the turnover battle 3-1 and still won the game.  Minnesota is another Big-10 West team that lost its third conference battle last week.

Iowa 10  Northwestern 7:  This was a rock fight game:

  • Iowa Total Offense = 169 yards
  • Northwestern Total Offense 170 yards

And …

  • Iowa average gain per play = 3.0 yards
  • Northwestern average gain per play = 2.8 yards.

Iowa now leads the Big-10 West because the three teams previously tied with them in that division lost last Saturday.

And out west in the PAC-12 …

Utah 55  Arizona St. 3:  Conference games are not often this lopsided – – especially with teams like Utah that win games with their defense.  Check these stats:

  • Utah Total Offense = 522 yards
  • Arizona St. Total Offense = 83 yards

And …

  • Utah third down conversions = 10 of 17
  • Arizona St. third down conversions = 2 of 15

Oregon 63  Cal 19:  Oregon continues to try to impress the CFP selectors of its worthiness even with a loss on its record.

Washington 52  USC 42:  That makes three losses for the Trojans in 2023 meaning their hopes for a prime bowl game invitation are dwindling.   As usual the USC defense was miserable; the Huskies ran the ball for 316 yards on 40 attempts.  Huskies’ running back, Dillon Johnson, ran for 256 yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries.

Stanford 10  Washington St. 7:  Stanford kicked a chip shot field goal late in the 4th quarter here to avoid OT.  That had to be a blessing for the folks in attendance….

Oregon St. 26  Colorado 19:  Colorado needs to win two out of three of its remaining games to be bowl-eligible; that will be a tall task:  The next three games for the Buffaloes are Arizona (at home), Washington St. (on the road) and Utah (on the road).   The Beavers outgained the Buffaloes here 418 yards to 238 yards.

Arizona 27  UCLA 10:  Two weeks in a row, I have taken Arizona with points in the “Betting Bundle” and both times Arizona has won outright.  With this win, they are bowl eligible.  UCLA’s defense is sound; and yet, Arizona produced 415 yards of offense in the game.

And finally, in random games of interest …

Temple 32  Navy 18:  This is win #3 for Temple – – probably taking them off the SHOE Tournament watch list.

Army 23  Air Force 3: A shocking result here!  Air Force was 7-0 coming to the game and was a serious contender for a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  With this win, Army is now 3-6 for the season’ the win snapped a 5-game losing streak for the Cadets.  Air Force turned the ball over 6 times in this game.

UAB 45  FAU 42:  I mention this only because the teams combined for 1098 yards on offense.  Just so you know, that is just about five-eighths of a mile…

Memphis 59  USF 50:  I mention this only because the teams combined for 1163 yards on offense.  Just so you know, that is almost two-thirds of a mile…

Tulane 13  E. Carolina 10:  Tulane is 8-1 and is widely touted to be the most likely Group of 5 conference winner to make a New Yar’s Day Bowl Game.  However, two weeks ago they beat Rice by only 2 points and last weekend they squeaked out a 3-point win over a team on the SHOE Tournament watch list.  Tulane needs a signature win to maintain their status as the media favorite for a New Year’s Day slot.  Here is the remaining schedule for Tulane and I don’t see any opponents that make me sit up and take notice:

  • Vs. Tulsa
  • At Florida Atlantic
  • Vs. Texas – San Antonio

Meh!

Liberty 56  La-Tech 30:  Liberty remains undefeated at 9-0.  Here is their remaining schedule:

  • Vs. Old Dominion
  • Vs. UMass
  • At UTEP

Meh-squared!!

Here are the teams on my SHOE Tournament watch list this week.  Call it the “Dirty Dozen”:

  1. Akron (2-7)
  2. Arizona St. (2-7)
  3. Ball St. (2-7)
  4. Cincy (2-7)
  5. East Carolina (1-8)
  6. Kent St. (1-8)
  7. La-Monroe (2-7)
  8. Nevada (2-7)
  9. Southern Mississippi (2-7)
  10. UConn (1-8)
  11. Vandy (2-8)
  12. Virginia (2-7)

And a quick update on the contenders for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award:

  • USF gives up 37.0 points per game.
  • UMass gives up 37.4 points per game.
  • UAB gives up 38.1 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Alabama – 11 at Kentucky (47):  A win for Alabama in this game puts them in the SEC Championship Game in December.

Miami at Florida St. – 14.5 (50.5):  The Seminoles are an integral part of the CFP conversation but will drop out with a loss here.  Miami is just erratic enough in its performances to give pause regarding this game.

Duke at UNC – 14.5 (51.5):  That is a large spread for such an intense rivalry game…

Va Tech – 1 at BC (49):  Very quietly, BC has won 5 games in a row and is bowl-eligible in 2023.  Tech still needs two wins to make it to a bowl game…

Ga Tech at Clemson – 14 (55.5):  This is not where the Ramblin’ Wreck finds its sixth win for the season …

Oklahoma St. – 2 at UCF (65):  This is potentially a BIG letdown game for the Cowboys after beating Oklahoma last week.  On the other hand, a win here for the Cowboys assures that they will maintain a piece of the Big-12 conference lead.  UCF is 1-5 in conference games, and I think they are over-matched here.  I’ll take Oklahoma St. to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ole Miss at Georgia – 10,5 (58):  There are two College Games of the Week this week and this game is one of them.  The teams arrive at the kickoff with a combined record of 17-1.  If you are a trend watcher, consider this:

  • Ole Miss is 5-2-1 against the spread playing Division 1-A opponents.
  • Georgia is 2-5-1 against the spread playing Division 1-A opponents.

Minnesota at Purdue – 1 (47):  More than likely, this game will be lost and not won.

Michigan – 4 at Penn St. (45):  This is the other College Game of the Week.  Michigan leads the nation in scoring defense allowing only 6.7 points per game.  Penn St. is no slouch when it comes to scoring defense either; the Nittany Lions are third in the country allowing only 11.8 points per game.  This will be Michigan’s first game against an opponent that belongs on the same field as the Wolverines.  I trust the Penn St. defense to make Michigan sweat a bit, but I am not sanguine about the Penn St. offense doing much business against the Michigan defense.  I am tempted to play the UNDER here – – but will resist that temptation.

Northwestern at Wisconsin – 10 (41.5):  First team to 20 points wins …  I am so tempted to take the UNDER but will not.

Rutgers at Iowa – 1 (28.5):  I cannot remember ever seeing a Total Line as low as 28.5 points in a college football game.  The Total Line opened at 32 points and has been dropping all week long.  That would indicate that the sportsbooks are finding it difficult to attract bettors to the OVER side of this wager.

Arizona – 10 at Colorado (54.5):  I rode Arizona to two wins in the last two “Betting Bundles” – – but not this week laying 10 points on the road…

Utah at Washington – 9 (50):  An upset win by the Utes would make the rest of the PAC-12 schedule even more interesting than it shapes up to be.

USC at Oregon – 15 (74):  The Total Line opened at 81 points, dropped quickly to 76 points, and has slowly eroded to this level.  Losing a full TD from an opening Total Line is not a common occurrence.

Indiana at Illinois – 6 (44):  This is a “border war” game.  Do you think anyone in either state thinks of this game in that way?

Tennessee – 2.5 at Missouri (58):  Mizzou spent a lot of emotional capital getting up to play Georgia.  Is this a letdown game for the Tigers?  Both teams are 7-2 on the season and the winner here should get very serious consideration for a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.

Florida at LSU – 14 (64):  This looks like the third loss in a row for the Gators.  However, LSU’s QB, Jayden Daniels, spent the week in concussion protocol so there is some ambiguity as to his availability and his abilities this week.

Mississippi St. at Texas A&M – 19 (42.5):  The Aggies need one more win for bowl eligibility.  If they lose this game at home in front of already disgruntled alums, I would suggest that Jimbo Fisher hire a food taster…  I know that Mississippi St. is not a good offensive team (104th in the country in Total Offense per game) but the Aggies are not an offensive juggernaut either.  I think that line is fat, so I’ll take the Bulldogs on the road plus all those points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Maryland – 2 at Nebraska (44):  The Huskers lost last week in a game they needed to win and should have won; the Terps have lost 4 games in a row.  Race to the bottom here …?

Michigan St. at Ohio St. – 31 (45):  The spread here is interesting because Ohio St. only averages 32.8 points per game in 2023.

Air Force – 19 at Hawaii (47):  Despite last week’s loss to Army, Air Force remains unbeaten in Mountain West Conference games.  They aim to maintain the status quo here.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

There is a standard joke when a bad team has a BYE Week to say that the bad team did not lose to the BYE Week.  Well, there might be a variant on that from last week.  The Niners are a good team.  They had their BYE Week last week.  I assert that the Niners won their BYE Week because:

  • The Seahawks – also in the NFC West – scored 3 points and lost to the Ravens.
  • The Rams – also in the NFC West – scored 3 points and lost to the Packers.
  • The Cards – also in the NFC West – scored 0 points and lost to the Browns.
  • The Niners did not lose last week; hence they won their BYE Week.

Antonio Pierce won his first game as the interim head coach of the Raiders.  Before the euphoria carries Raider Nation away, might I remind them to take a deep breath and recall that Jeff Saturday stepped in to take over the Colt’s job last year and won his first outing – – and then proceeded to lose the rest of the games on the schedule.  There are similarities between Saturday and Pierce:

  • Both had long careers as players in the NFL.
  • Both had zero experience as head coaches anywhere.
  • Both won their first games on the job with their new charges.

Raider fans can look more fondly at another comparison between Antonio Pierce and Rich Bisaccia.  Like Pierce, Bisaccia had no head coaching experience when he was inserted into the Raiders’ season as an interim head coach a couple years ago.  Like Pierce, he won his first game with the big headset on.  And then Bisaccia took the team on a run to the playoffs – – but was not retained by Mark Davis who decided that Josh McDaniels was the guy he wanted as head man with the Raiders.

So, let me suggest that Raider Nation hopes to see Pierce emulate Rich Bisaccia and not Jeff Saturday for the balance of the 2023 season.  And then, Raider Nation needs to hope that Mark Davis makes a far better choice for his next head football coach out there in the desert…

The Atlanta Falcons have a QB controversy but not the usual kind.  They are currently in a situation where they need to choose the least worst of their options, not the best choice.

  • Memo to Arthur Blank and the Falcons’ Braintrust:  Neither Taylor Heinicke nor Desmond Ridder is the future” face of that franchise”.

The Houston Texans just might wiggle their way into the 7th playoff spot in the AFC.  CJ Stroud is playing excellently and the Texans’ defense – – under DeMeco Ryans – – is playing well too.

The LA Rams are on their BYE Week this week.  They need to send Matthew Stafford to Lourdes to heal his thumb because Brett Rypien is not the answer to any pertinent football question.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ record this morning is 5-3.  In those 8 games, the Steelers have been outgained by their opponents every time and even with that winning percentage of .652, the Steelers have a minus-30 point differential for 2023.  That is not a recipe for playoff success.

The NY Giants are just awful.  Their two wins this year are over the Commanders and the Cards.  Other than a home game against the similarly miserable Pats on November 26th, the Giants will be underdogs – – and significant underdogs most of the time – – from now through early January.

Amazon is paying the NFL $1B a year for the rights to Thursday Night Football.  This week, the NFL has saddled Amazon with the Panthers at the Bears.  It would be difficult for the Bears to lose here since they own the Panthers’ first round pick next year.

  • Bears win => Panthers’ pick gets more valuable
  • Panthers win => Bears’ pick gets more valuable

So, who is psyched to tune into this game?

Just to keep you updated on three running items:

  1. The Pats sacked Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell twice last week bringing his sack total to 43 for the season.  That projects to 81 sacks for the full season which would set an all-time NFL record.
  2. The Steelers gained 326 yards last week meaning they have gone over 300 yards of offense twice in their eight games in 2023.
  3. The Steelers have now gone 43 consecutive games with Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator where the offense failed to gain 400 yards or more.

Some comments on last week’s games …

Chiefs 21  Dolphins 14:  When you hold Patrick Mahomes to 174 yards passing and the Chiefs to 267 yards on offense, you are supposed to win the game.  The Dolphins were only 3 of 12 on third-down conversions and that did not aid them in such an endeavor.

Browns 27  Cards 0:  The Cards were an embarrassment to pro football here:

  • Total offense for the day = 58 yards
  • Net passing yards = 17 yards
  • Third-down conversions = 1 of 12
  • Average gain per play = 1.2 yards
  • Turnovers = 3
  • Punts = 9
  • Deepest penetration = Browns 40 yardline
  • Sacks allowed = 7

Vikes 31  Falcons 28:  You must have heard about Josh Dobbs and his miraculous debut for the Vikes.  Having arrived two days before the game, he threw for 2 TDs – one being on a game winning drive – – and ran for another.  All that came AFTER he lost two fumbles and was sacked for a safety.  That was a Hollywood screenplay performance.  Taylor Heinicke played QB for the Falcons in place of Desmond Ridder and did what Heinicke often does – – plays just well enough to keep the game on edge to the end so the other guys can find a way to win at the end.

Saints 24  Bears 17:  The Bears – led by Tyson Bagent – actually outgained the Saints in the game 368 yards to 301 yards.  The problem is that Bagent threw 3 INTs; he also lost a fumble; and the Bears turned the ball over a total of 5 times in the game.  Nevertheless, the score was tied at 17 each at the start of the 4th quarter; but here are the Bears’ possessions in the 4th quarter:

  • 2 plays – – 0 yards – – INT (leads to Saint’s winning TD)
  • 6 plays – – 12 yads – – INT
  • 3 plays – – 6 yards – – PUNT
  • 2 plays – – minus-14 yards – – FUMBLE

Packers 20  Rams 3:  Jordan Love had a decent game, but it was more than the Packers needed here because the Rams’ backup QB, Brett Rypien, had a miserable game:

  • 13 of 28 for 130 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Ravens 37  Seahawks 3:  This was another total domination effort by the Ravens.

  • Ravens Total Offense = 515 yards
  • Seahawks Total Offense = 151 yards

There are plenty of other disastrous stat comparisons I could make here, but I think you get the idea …

Colts 27  Panthers 13:  The Colts never turned the ball over in this game – – kudos to Gardner Minshew on that.  The Panthers turned the ball over 4 times in this game including two Pick-Sixes in the game.

Texans 39  Bucs 37:  This was CJ Stroud’s coming out party.  The Texans’ QB produced this tat line:

  • 30 of 42 for 490 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs

The Bucs scored a go-ahead TD with 46 seconds left to go in the game.  Stroud led the Texans back on 6 plays covering 75 yards to score the winning TD with 6 seconds left on the clock.  The Bucs have now lost 4 in a row after starting the season 3-1; the Texans’ record stands at 4-4.

Commanders 20  Pats 17:  This makes two games in a row where Sam Howell has played excellently. Here is his stat line:

  • 29 of 45 for 325 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

The Pats had 107 yards rushing which seems good until you recognize that 64 yards came on one TD run in the first half.  For the rest of the day, the Pats gained 43 yards rushing on 18 carries.  Bleah!

Eagles 28  Cowboys 23:  The Cowboys outgained the Eagles 406 yards to 292 yards – – and lost the game.  In the fourth quarter alone, the Cowboys outgained the Eagles 163 yards to 14 yards – – and the Cowboys lost the game.  With the Cowboys trailing by 5 points, they got the ball on their own 14 yardline with 46 seconds left in the game and no timeouts.  No problem, the Eagles gifted the Cowboys 55 yards in penalties – – that stop the clock – – to set up a sack by Josh Sweat and a failed Hail Mary pass as time expired.

Raiders 30  Giants 6:  Daniel Jones returned from a neck injury that had kept him out of the last 2 games; he lasted until the second quarter when he injured his knee – – and it was later shown to be a torn ACL meaning he is out for the rest of the year.  The Giants were going nowhere with Jones; they are cooked without him.  This was a big win for the Raiders under interim head coach Antonio Pierce (see above).  The Raiders’ defense recorded 8 sacks in the game.

Bengals 24  Bills 18:  Joe Burrow’s calf is healed; he is back to being Joe Burrow.  This was a seriously entertaining game to watch between two of the better teams in the league.

Chargers 27  Jets 6:  The Chargers recorded 8 sacks in the game; the Jets’ OL was like an unhinged swinging gate.  The Jets dominated the stat sheet:

  • Jets’ Time of Possession = 34:27
  • Jets outgained Chargers 270 yards to 191 yards

The difference in the game was a punt return for a TD by the Chargers and three lost fumbles by the Jets.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams have their BYE Week now:

  • Chiefs:  It had to have been a LONG flight home from Germany to KC – – but at least they won the game in Germany.
  • Dolphins:  Their flight home from Germany was even longer than the Chiefs’ flight – – and they lost the game in Germany.
  • Eagles:  They get a breather before embarking on a very difficult stretch of 5 games:
          1. At Chiefs
          2. Vs. Bills
          3. Vs. Niners
          4. At Cowboys
          5. At Seahawks
  • Rams:  The Rams are 3-6 to this point in the season and really need a week off to let some key players get healthy – – Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua to name a pair.

One other note before getting to the slate of games.  I will be identifying a Dog-Breath Game of the Week from the list of games on Sunday and Monday, notwithstanding that none of those games look nearly as unattractive as last night’s Panthers/Bears clash of the Titans.

And speaking of last night’s game …

Bears 16  Panthers 13:  There are two ways in which an NFL game can end with neither team able to generate 300 yards of offense:

  • Two really good defenses stifling two competent offenses.
  • Two offenses slogging through mud facing two competent defenses.

If you watched last night, you saw Option 2.  The two teams combined to face third-down situations a total of 30 times; the longest running play in the game was a 16-yard jet sweep; the longest pass completion for the victorious Bears was also 16 yards.  Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit tried to keep the game interesting for viewers; it was a Herculean task.

And now for the rest of this week’s NFL action …

(Sun Morning) Colts at Pats – 2 (43) Game is in Germany:  The spread opened with the Pats as 1-point favorites but that did not last long.  The Pats’ season is virtually over already; the Colts’ season is merely in the ICU taking intravenous nourishment.  Even with that comment, this game was never part of my consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week; I really don’t care much about this game.

Browns at Ravens – 6.5 (38):  The Total Line opened at 41 points and obviously attracted a lot of “UNDER” action; these are two excellent defensive teams.  This is my Game of the Week.  A win by the Browns will put them only a half-game behind the Ravens in the AFC North race.  The Ravens have the best point differential in the league to date at +115 points in 9 games.  Just as a point of reference the second-best point differential belongs to the Bills at +80 in 9 games.  Six weeks ago, the Ravens went to Cleveland and torched the Browns 28-3; there could be an element of “revenge” at work here.

Texans at Bengals – 6.5 (37):  The spread opened with the Bengals as 9-point favorites, but the line has been moving down slowly all week.  I like the Texans (see comments above), but it may be asking a bit much for them to matchup against the Bengals in Cincy.

Niners – 3 at Jags (45):  This was my runner-up choice for the Game of the Week.  The Jags have an inverted record so far this year:

  • Jags’ record at home = 2-2
  • Jags’ record on the road = 4-0

The Niners have lost three in a row and that has dropped them into a tie for first place in the NFC West with the Seahawks.  Niners’ fans surely hope last week’s time off gave the team and the coaches the opportunity to get their act back together.  Another factor here is that this is a so called “body-clock game” for the Niners.  They are traveling east over 3 time zones and kickoff is at 1:00 PM – – which for their body clocks is 10:00 AM.  Purely a hunch but I’ll take the Jags at home plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Saints – 3 at Vikes (41):  One more performance from Josh Dobbs akin to last week’s showing (see above) and he will be cast as Jack Armstrong – – All-American Boy – – in a movie rendition of that radio program from about 75 years ago.

Packers at Steelers – 3 (39):  The Steelers win with defense and their defense should be able to confound Jordan Love.  But it is tough to back the Steelers giving away points because of their blasé offense.  I like the Steelers to win and cover at home – – even though I might hyperventilate watching the Steelers’ offense try to move the ball; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans at Bucs – 1 (39.5): This is my runner-up game as the Dog-Breath Game of the week.  Both teams sport 3-5 records; neither team is particularly good at any specific area of the game.  The reason it did not achieve “Dog-Breath status” is that it might be interesting to watch Will Levis play QB for the Titans in his second start.

Falcons – 2 at Cards (42):  This here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Falcons ae 4-5 meaning they are still “a potential division winner” in the marginally acceptable NFC South.  The Cards are a semi-pro level team until and unless Kyler Murray returns to action and plays like Kyler Murray can play when he is interested.  Murray is slated to start this game “if he suffers no setbacks” in the late week practices; maybe that makes the game worth following – – but not watching.

Lions – 3 at Chargers (48.5):  The spread opened with the Chargers favored by a point.  That did not last long at all.  This was my runner-up for Game of the Week.  The Lions had their BYE last week; the Chargers played on Monday night in NY and then had a cross country flight home making it a short week for the Chargers.  I am tempted to take the Chargers at home – – but will not.

Giants at Cowboys – 17 (39):  The spread opened at 10 points and the Total Line opened at 41.5 points.  Both numbers have moved around during the week.  Earlier this year, the Cards beat the Cowboys in a game where the Cowboys clearly just mailed it in.  If that happens here to the point that the woebegone Giants win this game, Jerry Jones just might pop a cerebral aneurism as his blood pressure goes to something like 375/255.  Just so you know:

  • Money Line odds on Giants = +1040
  • Money Line odds on Cowboys = minus-1700

Therefore, a $100 wager on the Cowboys on the Money Line would result in a profit of $5.88 if the Cowboys were to win the game.

Commanders at Seahawks – 6.5 (44.5):  I will not be in the DC area for the Sunday games this week.  If I were going to be here, this game would be the one telecast in the late afternoon slot meaning there is no chance I would be burdened by seeing the Giants/Cowboys game in that time slot.  I shall have to take my chances with the television gods in the Central Pennsylvania viewing area.

(Sun Nite) Jets at Raiders “pick ‘em” (37):  The spread for this game is all over the place.  I can find Jets – 1 and I can find Raiders – 1.5 and I can find “pick ’em”.  What I cannot find is any reason to believe that this game will be an offensive shoot-out.

(Mon Nite) Broncos at Bills – 7.5 (46.5):  The spread opened the week with the Bills as 9-point favorites, but the number has slowly shrunk to this level during the week.  The Bills need this game more than the Broncos do.  The Bills are a game behind the Dolphins in the AFC East; a loss here would put them two-games down in the loss column.  The Broncos have won two games in a row raising their record to 3-5.  Clearly that shows improvement but for perspective they are looking up at the chiefs in the AFC West and the Chiefs are 7-2.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle” – sparse as it is this week:

  • Oklahoma St. – 2 over UCF
  • Mississippi St. +19 against Texas A&M
  • Steelers – 3 over Packers
  • Jags +3 against Niners

And here is a two-element Money Line Parlay for this week:

  • Steelers @ minus-170
  • Bills @ minus-330     $100 wager to win $107.

Finally, here are words of wisdom from Rutgers head football coach, Greg Schiano:

“There are two things every man in America thinks he can do: work a grill and coach football.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Michigan Football Acquires Another Supporter

Lots of people have reacted negatively to the revelations of sign stealing by Connor Stallions on behalf of University of Michigan football.  A few folks – – like Coach Prime – – have minimized what happened; Sanders said even if you know what play is coming, you have to stop it.  Now another “prominent voice” has been added to the “minimizing choir”; OJ Simpson said:

“All the talk of stealing of signs at Michigan. You know, I looked at Michigan play. They’re so good they don’t really need to steal signs,”

Well, there you have it.  Case closed.  Move along … nothing to see here.

For those other folks who might still think there is more investigating to do, let me suggest that the remedy to this sort of nefarious activity can be summarized in two words:

  • Wearable technology.

If coaches used transmitters and players wore receivers, play calling on offense and defense could be accomplished without the need for any overt signaling.  Even a minor level of encryption on the signals would make the process secure.  The equipment need not be nearly as sophisticated as an Apple watch; it does not need Internet connectivity or picture taking capabilities; all it must do is receive a transmission and alert the player who receives the signal as to his assignment on the next play.

Moving on …  I read yesterday that ten different rookie QBs have started games in the NFL so far in 2023 and that is an all-time record.  The first thing that came to mind was:

  • This stat probably contributes to the decline in offense around the league in 2023 both in scoring and yardage gained categories.

Then as I let my mind wander around the league thinking about QBs and rookie QBs, it settled on 5 teams whose QB situation seems dire to me.  So, let me explain:

  • Bears:  The Bears have had a “QB situation” for about the last 70 years – – save for those years when Jay Cutler was the QB and fans in Chicago shifted their focus to wondering how a player with such talent could be as ineffective as he was.  This was to be the year the team learned if Justin Fields was “the guy”; we are halfway through the 2023 season and the Bears have no more of an inkling as to the answer there than they did back in August.  The kneejerk solution according to fans is to “Draft another QB in April”.  Well, the Bears have done that 4 times in the last 25 years and come up with this quartet of QBs:
        • Cade McNown
        • Rex Grossman
        • Mitchell Trubisky’
        • Justin Fields
  • Sometimes the answer is not so simple…
  • Cards:  The team needs to know the answer to two questions.  First, is Kyler Murray’s knee “good”?  He should be back on the field soon for live action assessment.  Second, Is Kyler Murray as committed to winning NFL games as he is to winning computer games?  During his year of rehab, has he been studying game film or playing Madden football?
  • Giants:  The team overpaid Daniel Jones.  He is signed through the end of the 2026 season with a buyout clause that could kick in at the end of 2024.  However, exercising that clause would cost the Giants over $22M in “dead cap money”.  The current backup is Tyrod Taylor and his contract “voids” three days after the Super Bowl next February.  So far, undrafted rookie, Tommy DeVito, has been unspectacular at best.
  • Pats:  Mac Jones signed a standard rookie contract in 2021; the Pats have him signed through 2024 with an option for a fifth year in 2025.  With two-and-a-half years of evidence gained through observation on the field, Mac Jones could have a long career ahead of him as a perennial backup QB in various venues around the league.  It does not seem to me that he has the potential to be a “franchise QB”.  Behind Jones on the Pats’ depth chart today are Bailey Zappe and Will Grier.  The Pats need a significant upgrade at the position.
  • Raiders:  Simply put, is Aidan O’Connell for real?  Because at age 32, it is not likely that Jimmy G. is the main man going forward for the team; and certainly, at age 38, Brian Hoyer is not the “QB of the future”.

Lots of people – – me included – – think that this year’s Draft has a handful of very interesting prospects at the QB position.  I suspect that at least four of these five teams will be in the market for a QB next year and there are surely other teams who might consider “adding a QB” as an element of their long-range planning.  It could be a very interesting Draft coming up next April …

Finally, here is an observation by my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Suicide is belated acquiescence in the opinion of one’s wife’s relatives.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Clarifications And Updates Today …

I want to circle back to a couple of my previous comments to provide an update.  Earlier this week, I mentioned that the Prosper, TX Independent School Distract had a referendum item on the ballot yesterday.  Folks there sought voter approval to issue about $104M worth of bonds and to use $94M of that total to build a new football stadium for the high school team there.  Well, the people of Prosper, TX have spoken; there were four bond items on the ballot and the stadium proposal was “Proposition C”:

  • Proposition C was voted down yesterday – – 5,533 voted NO and 4,767 voted YES.
  • The other three propositions all passed handily – – to upgrade school technology, to build new school buildings and to build a performing arts center.

It seems that sanity prevailed yesterday in Prosper, TX …

Next, I said recently in one of my Football Friday rants that James Madison University was not eligible to play in a bowl game this year for reasons that I did not understand at the time.  Well, as of this morning, there are seven Division 1-A teams that are undefeated in 2023.  Five of those seven are the ones ranked in various orders between #1 and #5 in the various national polls we all glance at.  The other two are:

  • Liberty (9-0)
  • James Madison (9-0)

I think it is a bit snobbish – – yet understandable – – for the college football overlords to declare that neither of these two schools has played a sufficiently vigorous schedule to grant them access to a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.

  •  Liberty has dominated Conference-USA which has 9 teams – – four of which have lost 7 or more games so far in 2023.  Liberty’s out of conference games have mainly been MAC teams.  Liberty is clearly the best of that lot and should earn Liberty a bowl bid outside the major games on New Year’s Day.
  • James Madison is dominating the Sun Belt Conference which is not nearly a Power-5 conference but seems to me to be a step up from Conference-USA in “difficulty”.  JMU is not bowl-eligible in 2023 because of an obscure NCAA rule.

Supposedly as a deterrent to schools seeking to move up from Division 1-AA to Division 1-A (tougher competition and bigger revenues), the NCAA has in its massive rulebook that any team that “moves up” shall be ineligible for bowl games in its first two years at the Division 1-A level.  In most cases, that rule never needs to be invoked because as results for this year demonstrate, teams that step up in the first year or two never come close to winning 6 games to make themselves bowl eligible.  This year, the only school “stepping up” so to speak is Sam Houston St. as of this morning Sam Houston St. has a record of 1-8 playing in Conference-USA.

James Madison left Division 1-AA and joined Division 1-A last year in 2022.  In its first year of tougher competition, JMU finished with a record of 8-3 and sat out the bowl game season while other teams with records of 6-6 played on.  So, it would seem to me as if JMU has already paid some penance for exhibiting the audacity of trying to compete with the “big boys”.  And now in 2023, they need to do more penance?  To what end?

This inequity seems so simple to resolve; the new NCAA president, Charlie Baker, could simply declare that he was issuing a one-time waiver for that rule and that he declares JMU eligible for bowl invitations from any bowl that might want them to participate.  I am not a consumer of minor bowl games on TV – – but I would find a way to watch JMU play one of the “middle-of-the-pack Power-5 teams” just to see how good these upstarts are with their 9-0 record.  How about:

  • JMU (9-0) versus West Virginia (6-3) in the Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit. MI) on Dec. 26th.
  • The two schools are less than 200 miles apart.
  • Fans of both teams can get to Detroit on short-hop flights.

So let it be written … so let it be done!

One last circle-back today …  I mentioned that Michigan St. basketball got off to an unexpectedly rocky start earlier this week losing to James Madison in OT.  Well, just to assure you that much of the rest of the early-season college basketball world is functioning normally, consider this result from out west:

  • St. Mary’s CA  107
  • Stanislaw St.  28

St Mary’s made the NCAA Tournament last March, won its first-round game and was eliminated in the second round by the eventual National Champion UConn Huskies.

Stanislaw St. – – more fully, California State University – Stanislaw – – is a Division 2 basketball team that plays in the CCAA – – more fully, the California Collegiate Athletic Association.  Stanislaw St. has a schedule with entries such as:

  • Cal State – Dominguez Hills
  • Sonoma State
  • Chico State
  • Cal Poly – Humboldt

In that 79-point debacle against St. Mary’s, Stanislaw St. shot 9 for 58 from the field (that is 15.5% in case your calculator is not handy) and were outrebounded by St. Mary’s 58-16.  Why was this “game” allowed to happen?

Finally, the JMU situation as described here is an injustice as was that basketball game on the St. Mary’s schedule; so, let me close today with the definition if “injustice” from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

Injustice:  A wrong characterized by a lack of fairness or equity.  For example, the fact that a person named Kevin Federline was ever famous for one single day is an injustice of the highest order.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

College Basketball Season Has Begun

The college basketball season has begun, and fans will not have to wait a moment longer to see the first upset of a Pre-Season Top Ten team.  Tom Izzo and Michigan State were ranked #4 in the pre-season polls; they invited James Madison to come to East Lansing for an early season contest.  Sparty was favored by 16.5 points with Money Line odds of minus-1600 but JMU took the game to OT and won outright 79-76.  Yes, this was an upset that had to surprise Michigan St. fans and those who backed them at the betting window.  But I remembered that JMU was a good team last year, so I went to check the record:

  • Last year was the first year that James Madison played Sun Belt Conference basketball.
  • Their record in conference was 12-6 and their overall record was 22-11.
  • The Sun Belt Conference is not the Big-10 but a team that wins 22 games is pretty good no matter what conference they are in.

Here are three telling stats that reveal how Michigan St. managed to lose this game:

  • The five starters for the Spartans shot 0 for 17 from three-point range.
  • Overall, Michigan St. shot 1 for 20 from three-point range and only 26 for 72 from the field (36.1%).
  • From the foul line, Michigan St. was a measly 23 of 37 (62.2%).

Moving on …  Another sporting event began last weekend.  The first round of the Canadian Football League (CFL) playoffs took place.  In this first round, the results were pure chalk:

  • In the East, Montreal (12-6 in regular season games) hosted Hamilton (8-10).  The Alouettes were 4.5-point favorites and easily won and covered by a score of 27-12.
  • In the West, BC (12-6) was an 8-point favorite to beat Calgary (6-12) and managed to cover with a score of 41-30.
  • Two teams had a BYE for the first round.  Those teams were Toronto in the East and Winnipeg in the West.

On Saturday afternoon, November 11th, the Montreal Alouettes will visit the Toronto Argonauts to determine the Eastern Division representative in the Gray Cup game to be held in Hamilton on Sunday November 19th.  Here are a couple things to know about this matchup:

  • Toronto’s regular season home record this year was 9-0.  The Argonauts were 16-2 overall.
  • These two teams have played 3 times in 2023 and Toronto has won all three games by a cumulative score of 97-57.
  • Toronto is a 9.5-point favorite here with a Total Line at 50.5 points.

Later in the evening on November 11th, the BC Lions will travel to Winnipeg to take on the Blue Bombers; the winner will be the Western Division representative in the Gray Cup game.  Hers are a couple things to know about this game:

  • Winnipeg’s regular season home record this year was 8-1.  The Blue Bombers were 14-4 overall.
  • Winnipeg is the highest scoring team in the CFL averaging 33 points per game.
  • These teams met twice in 2023 and Winnipeg won both games by a combined score of 84-40.
  • The Blue Bombers are a 4.5-point favorite in the game with a Total Line set at 49.5 points.

Switching gears …  Bayern Munich is a team in the German Bundesliga – – the top level of soccer in Germany.  As of this morning, they are in second place in that league only two points behind the current leader, Leverkusen.  I mention this because I ran across a report that said that Bayern Munich chose not to renew a “sleeve sponsorship deal” with Qatar Airways.

  • [Aside:  The first thing I had to do was to find out what a “sleeve sponsorship deal” was.  Turns out that Qatar Airways pays Bayern Munich 20-million euros a year for the right to have the name “Qatar Airways” printed on the tops of the sleeves of the players’ jerseys.]

The next thing that caught my attention in the report of this decision – – after I got past the idea that such a sponsorship could possibly be worth that much cash to the sponsor – – was that the report said this was a “victory for the fans”.  It did not make sense to me that fans would want the team to have less money to throw around on players and facilities, so I kept reading.  This decision by the club was in response to protests by fans who are also activists for international human rights and those fan-activists do not appreciate Qatar’s record along that dimension.

When/if I ever find a Bayern Munich game on TV, I will try to remember to look for the blank spot on the sleeves of the players’ jerseys – – or to look for what new sponsor the team acquired for that now-available real estate.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close here with two views of the opera:

“The opera … is to music what a bawdy house is to a cathedral.”  [H. L. Mencken}

And …

“People are wrong when they say that opera isn’t what it used to be.  It is what it used to be.  That’s what’s wrong with it.”  [Noel Coward]

            But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Miscellany …

I usually save a bunch of football comments for Football Friday; but I have several on my mind this morning so let ‘er rip.

First, I want to comment on the unfolding sign-stealing scandal in college football involving Michigan and some of its opponents.  The investigation must continue because a critical element is the involvement of various coaches in the chain of command there.  What was done – – and there has been sufficient evidence reported for me to believe that “sign spying” happened – – is a violation of NCAA rules.  It is not illegal; it is a rule violation.  Even if I think the rule is “wrong”, it is a rule and it has been violated.  So, it is not incumbent on the NCAA super-sleuths to figure out who did the violating and who initiated the violating and who knew about the violating without putting an end to it.

Those activities are aimed at sanctioning individuals.  There is – – in my mind at least – – already sufficient information to levy a sanction against “Michigan Football” as an institution.  If the NCAA honestly believes that this rule is important to the fabric of college football, it needs to come down hard on “Michigan Football “right now such that “Michigan Football” is not a beneficiary of breaking that rule the NCAA considers important.  Here is my suggestion:

  • As of this moment, “Michigan Football” is under a two-year post-season ban.  No CFP invitations and no bowl game invitations.
  • AND … the NCAA proclaims that any other school or football program that engages in anything like this will face a five-year ban in the future.

The next issue is also related to college football.  Last week, the first of the 2023 CFP
rankings were released by the Selection Committee.  Here are the Top Seven:

  1. Ohio St.
  2. Georgia
  3. Michigan
  4. Florida St.
  5. Washington
  6. Oregon
  7. Texas

I have been saying for several weeks in my Football Friday commentaries that Florida St. deserves consideration for a CFP bid.  No one should seriously consider me a “Seminole-hater”.  However, if you look at the Florida St. schedule to date, they have played one significant opponent (LSU) and two (better than average opponents (Duke and Clemson).  The problem with the Seminole’s schedule is that their conference opponents in the ACC just aren’t all that good in 2023.

Notwithstanding my suggestion above that Michigan be banned from any and all post-season action this year – – and next – – the Wolverines have played no one of consequence to date.  Looking at their schedule, is it possible that the best team Michigan has played – and beaten – in 2023 is UNLV?

So, my questions now are simple:

  1. Why does the Selection Committee place such a low value on “strength of schedule”? 
  2. Wouldn’t college football as a whole and the CFP more specifically, benefit from having top schools schedule other top schools instead of cupcakes? 

Conference schedules cannot be regulated; this year the ACC is a week-sister conference in the Power-5: and this year, Michigan’s rotating Big-10 schedule has presented them with no serious opponents to date.  However, the CFP selectors have it in their power to make teams schedule much stronger out of conference teams by rewarding the schools that do so.  It seems to me there is a basic psychological principle at work here:

  • You get the behavior that you reward; you change the behavior that you sanction.

The last football item for today involves a high school program in Texas.  Tomorrow is election day, and the Prosper Independent School district has a bond referendum on the ballot for voter approval or rejection.

  • Prosper Independent School district wants to issue bonds (borrow money) for four projects.
  • The total amount of the bond issue is $102,425,000.
  • Of that amount, $94M would go toward the construction of a new stadium for the Prosper Independent School District high school football team.

I do not support public money being used to build stadiums for billionaire football owners.  Neither would I support spending $94M of public money to build a high school football stadium.

Finally, I’ll close today with these words of wisdom from former Notre Dame football coach, Lou Holtz:

“Motivation is simple. You eliminate those who are not motivated.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 11/3/23

Shakespeare told us that the quality of mercy “droppeth like the gentle rain from Heaven.”

Football Friday droppeth from the sky like a lead brick simply because it is Friday.  So, let me get things cooking here with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

College:  2-0-0  =>    Season:  11-6-0

NFL:  0-3-0  =>   Season:  10-8-0

Parlays:  0-2  =>  Loss =  $200   ==>  Season:  6-7   Profit = $213

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats beat Pacific University 42-27 last weekend extending their record to 7-0 this year.  The Wildcats have won the Northwest Conference Championship in 12 of the last 13 seasons and the final game of this year is at home against Whitworth.  Assuming both Linfield and Whitworth win their games this weekend, they will arrive at the field undefeated in conference games making it a winner-take-all game.

To set that up, Linfield must beat Pacific Lutheran this week; the Lutes are 4-4 to this point in the season.  And Whitworth will need to prevail over George Fox University; the Bruins record this morning stands at 3-5.

Go Wildcats!

There are still 8 Division 1-A football teams who are undefeated in 2023:

  1. Air Force
  2. Florida St.
  3. Georgia
  4. James Madison
  5. Liberty
  6. Michigan
  7. Ohio St.
  8. Washington

For reasons that are not clear to me, James Madison may or may not be bowl-eligible due to the timing of their “graduation” to Division 1-A from Division 1-AA.  Seven of these eight teams are currently ranked in the Top-25; Liberty University is 8-0 and is in the lead in C-USA but is unranked.

Clemson was the pre-season favorite to win the ACC; with their loss last week, the Tigers are 4-4 on the season.  The last time Clemson had four regular-season losses was in 2010.  In 2023, Clemson has been eliminated from the ACC Championship race.

Big things were considered for SMU entering the season after a mediocre 7-6 campaign in 2022. SMU lost to two Big 12 opponents early on this year but have reeled off four straight wins in AAC play. In those four games, SMU has outscored its conference opponents by a combined 189-36.

There were two really surprising upsets last week:

  1. UNC lost 46-42 to Georgia Tech – – a team that entered Saturday with a 3-4 record. It was the Tar Heels’ second-straight conference loss to a team with a losing record – – they fell to Virginia two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, UNC was undefeated and was a longshot to make the CFP; today, they need help just to make it to the ACC Championship Game.
  2. The bigger of the two upsets last week was Kansas beating Oklahoma.  This was the Sooners’ first loss to Kansas since 1997. The Big-12 title race is now open to all conference teams with one conference loss and the results of this game guarantee that the Big-12 champion will not present an undefeated record to the CFP Selection Committee.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma needed a late rally to beat UCF – – an opponent that can only be called “mediocre”.

Speaking of the Big-12, the conference moved aggressively compensate for the imminent loss of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC.  Four new teams accepted invitations to join the Big-12 – – bringing the conference membership to 14 schools but who’s counting?  The four new members are not exactly “lighting it up” this year:

  • BYU is 5-3 overall and 2-3 in conference games.
  • Cincinnati is 2-6 overall and 0-5 in conference games.
  • Houston is 3-5 overall and 1-4 in conference games.
  • UCF is 3-5 overall and 0-5 in conference games.

These four newcomers have some growing-up/catching-up to do as compared to their conference comrades.  As of today, the cumulative conference record for these newcomers is a shabby 3-17.

One of the slots in the New Year’s Day Bowl Games is set aside for a conference winner outside the Power-5.  Even though Liberty is undefeated and leading its conference, it gets rather little attention as a contender for that slot.  The two teams that get mentioned more often are:

  1. Air Force (8-0).  They lead the Mountain West Conference and have games with Army, Hawaii, UNLV and Boise St. remaining.  The Falcons should be favored in all four of those games.
  2. Tulane (7-1).  They are tied atop the American Athletic Conference with no losses in conference games.  Their only loss was to Ole Miss back in Week 2; it is not a huge embarrassment for an AAC team to lose to an SEC team.  Every other team in the AAC already has 2 or more losses on the books; so from the AAC it would have to be Tulane or bust.  The rest of the schedule for the Green Wave is E. Carolina, Tulsa, Florida Atlantic and UT-San Antonio.

Some games from last week in the ACC:

Florida St. 41  Wake Forest 16:  The Seminoles remain unbeaten and in the hunt for a CFP invitation.  This game was never in doubt:

  • Florida St. Total Offense = 508 yards
  • Wake Forest Total Offense = 210 yards

NC State 24  Clemson 17:  As noted above, Clemson is only 4-4 this season and all four losses have been to ACC opponents.  Here is the rest of the Clemson schedule:

  • Vs. Notre Dame
  • At Georgia Tech
  • Vs. UNC
  • At South Carolina

Louisville 23  Duke 0:  Louisville has only 1 conference loss and is a contender for the ACC Championship Game; this was Duke’s second conference loss.  Duke’s offense was a no-show for the game gaining only 51 yards rushing and 202 yards of total offense.  The Blue Devils were forced to punt 10 times in the game.

Notre Dame 58  Pitt 7:  With 2 losses, Notre Dame is not in the CFP mix, but this was a statement win by the Irish telling the New Year’s Day Bowl Committees to remember the Fighting Irish.

Miami 29  UVa 26 (OT):  The Hurricanes were 18.5-point favorites in the game. UVa won the stat sheet handily:

  • Virginia Total Offense = 377 yards
  • Miami Total Offense – 276 yards

And …

  • Virginia 23 first downs
  • Miami 16 first downs

Virginia had a double-digit lead in the game and coughed it up.

Ga Tech 46  UNC 42:  This makes it two losses in a row for UNC and the Heels are the second “big dog” in the ACC to fall to Georgia Tech this year.  Tech outscored UNC 22-7 in the 4th quarter to come away with the win.  The two teams combined for 1212 yards of offense in the game.

Va Tech 38  Syracuse 10.  Tech is 4-4 on the season but they only have 1 loss against ACC opponents.  If Tech wins out and either Louisville or Florida State stumbles, the Hokies might end up in the ACC Championship Game despite four losses for the year.

In Big-12 action:

K-State 41  Houston 0:  The Cougars put a scare into Texas two weeks ago but none of that sort of play carried over here.  Five teams in the Big-12 have only one conference loss and K-State is on that list.

Kansas 38  Oklahoma 33:  The stat sheet was as even as the scoreboard:

  • Kansas Total Offense = 443 yards
  • Oklahoma Total Offense = 436 yards

Kansas trailed 33-32 in the game which was decided in the final minute when Devin Neal ran nine yards for a TD.  (A two-point conversion try failed.)  That TD broke an 18-game losing streak to Oklahoma for the Jayhawks.  It was Homecoming Weekend for Kansas; the alums got a special treat here.  With this win, Kansas is now bowl-eligible; Oklahoma – – even if it wins the Big-12 Championship Game – – is probably out of CFP consideration with this loss to a previously unranked team.

Texas 35  BYU 6:  Mallik Murphy filled in for injured Texas QB Quinn Ewers and played an excellent game:

  • 16 of 25 for 170 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

Texas is another of the “one-loss teams” in the Big-12 as of this morning.

Iowa St. 30  Baylor 18:  The Cyclones are in the middle of the Big 12 race now that Oklahoma has a conference loss.

Oklahoma St.  45  Cincy 13:  This game was simply a beatdown.  There is no other way to describe it.

Moving on to games in the Big-10:

Penn St. 33  Indiana 24:  Penn St. was a 32-point favorite here and had to scratch and scramble to win the game; covering was never in question.  Perhaps, this was a letdown game for the Nittany Lions after losing a week ago to Ohio St.?  If that were the case, the team had better not take this week’s opponent lightly as it looks ahead to a game at home against Michigan.

Northwestern 33  Maryland 27:  That evens up Northwestern’s record for the year at 4-4 and pretty much eliminates them from a SHOE Tournament invitation.

Nebraska 31  Purdue 14:  After some early-season missteps, Nebraska is only 1 win away from being bowl eligible.  It looks like Coach Rhule has this program headed in a positive direction.  Four teams in the Big-10 West have conference records of 3-2; Nebraska is one of the four.

Ohio St.  24  Wisconsin 10:  Wisconsin is another of the Big-10 West teams with a 3-2 conference record.   The Buckeyes dominated the stat sheet but turned the ball over 3 times in the game keeping it relatively close.

Here are a few SEC games from last week:

Texas A&M 30  South Carolina 17:  The Aggies’ defense held S Carolina’s running game to 33 yards on 28 carries in the game.  Wow!

Auburn 27  Mississippi St. 13:  Both teams need two more wins for bowl eligibility.  That is the ceiling for both squads this season.

Georgia 43  Florida 20:  Last week, I wondered aloud here how the Georgia offense might perform without Brock Bowers in the lineup. In case any doubt remains, Georgia outgained Florida by 176 yards in this game.  Florida scored a TD in the first 4 minutes of the game and also scored a TD in the final 2 minutes.  In between, it was all Georgia…

Tennessee 33  Kentucky 27:  Neither team has a realistic shot at the SEC Championship Game, but this win does make Tennessee bowl-eligible and leaves Kentucky needing one more win to achieve that status.  Here is the rest of the Kentucky schedule:

  • At Mississippi St.
  • Vs. Alabama
  • At South Carolina
  • At Louisville

Out west in the PAC-12 …

Oregon 35  Utah 6:  Here is the telling stat from this game:

  • Oregon averaged 6.7 yards per offensive play.
  • Utah averaged 3.7 yards per offensive play.

This was a “statement game” for Oregon.  They needed a good showing to make the case that they too belong in the CFP discussion despite losing to Washington earlier this season.  It is very possible that the Ducks and the Huskies will meet again in the PAC-12 Championship Game and Oregon wants to have a tidy résumé to put before the Selection Committee if it can win that game.

USC 50  Cal 49:  The two teams combined for 1024 yards of offense; it was a “Tackling Optional Game”.    USC trailed by 11 points at halftime and needed a 21-point outburst in the 4th quarter to secure this victory.  Cal may not be the worst team in the PAC-12, but they are hardly a powerhouse.

Washington 42  Stanford 33:  The Huskies remain unbeaten and are properly part of the CFP discussion as of today.

UCLA 28  Colorado 16:  The Bruins are now bowl eligible; the Buffaloes still need to find two wins to make it to a bowl game Here is the rest of Colorado’s schedule; it is not an easy one:

  • Vs. Oregon St.
  • Vs. Arizona
  • At Washington St.
  • At Utah

UCLA recorded 7 sacks in this game; the Colorado OL needs a lot of help from the transfer portal in the off-season if Coach Prime hopes to make Colorado relevant on the gridiron once again.

Arizona St. 38  Washington St 27:  This is only the second win of the year for Arizona St.   Wash St. needs two more wins for bowl eligibility

Arizona 27  Oregon St. 24:  Arizona struggled earlier this year but seems to have gotten things together.  One more win and they go to a bowl game…

In miscellaneous games:

SMU 69  Tulsa 10:  Two weeks ago, SMU scored 55 points on Temple.  Now they put a beat down on Tulsa.  Do the Mustangs have some sort of vendetta against school names that begin with the letter “T”?  The Sesame Street characters want to know …

BC 21  UConn 14:  SHOE Tournament implications here…

UMass 21  Army 14:  SHOE Tournament implications here …

Appalachian St. 48   So Miss 38:  SHOE Tournament implications here …

Tulane 30  Rice 28:  As noted above, Tulane is 7-1 and would like to be the Group of 5 team that gets invited to a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  A 2-point win over Rice is not much of a calling card …

Liberty 42  W. Kentucky 29:  Liberty is one of the undefeated teams in the country.  They may not play the world’s toughest schedule, but they only can beat the team that takes the field against them…

The possibilities for the SHOE Tournament field are beginning to crystallize.  Here are a dozen teams on my watch list:

  1. Akron  (1-7)
  2. Army  (2-6)
  3. Ball St.  (2-6)
  4. Cincinnati  (2-6)
  5. East Carolina (1-7)
  6. Kent St.  (1-7)
  7. La-Monroe  (2-6)
  8. Michigan St.  (2-6)
  9. Southern Mississippi  (1-7)
  10. Stanford  (2-6)
  11. Temple (2-6)
  12. UConn  (1-7)

And just a brief update on the teams in contention for the Brothel Defense Award for 2023:

  • Southern Mississippi gives up 39.4 points per game.
  • UMass gives up 39.2 points per game.
  • Temple gives up 38.0 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

I don’t care if you get tired of hearing from and about SEC teams.  For this weekend, much of the focus for folks who like and follow college football will be on two SEC games:

  • LSU at Alabama – – and – –
  • Missouri at Georgia.

I don’t say this to minimize the rest of the games on the schedule for this weekend.  In fact, neither of those two games is my College Game of the Week.  But in terms of real and potential impact on the college football season, this is “where the action is” this weekend.

Miami – 6 at NC St. (44):  The spread opened the week at 3.5 points and has climbed steadily during the week; one sportsbook has it at 7 points this morning.  No, I don’t know why …

Wisconsin – 9 at Indiana (45):  The Badgers are tied for the lead with 3 other teams in the Big-10 West; they need this game.  Indiana is playing because that is what the schedule tells them they are supposed to do.

UCF – 4 at Cincy (59.5):  Two of the new teams in the Big-12 who have not impressed so far this year.  Maybe the rallying cry for this game should be:

  • Conference bottom-feeders – – Unite!!!

Ohio St. – 19 at Rutgers (42):  Ohio St. has not been blowing opponents away this year the way they have in the past.  Is this the game where the offense clicks and hangs something like 70 points on Rutgers?

Florida St. – 21 at Pitt (50.5):  This looks like a big mismatch to me …

Penn St. – 8 at Maryland (51):  The spread opened at 10 points and has been dropping slowly all week long.  The Lions did not impress last week, and they could easily be looking past the Terps toward their meeting with Michigan next week.

Tulane – 17 over E. Carolina (47):  Tulane wants and needs to impress the New Year’s Day Bowl mavens; they got a shot at a big bowl game last year and won the game; they would like to do that again.  E. Carolina is on the SHOE Tournament watch list…

Nebraska – 3 at Michigan St. (35):  The Huskers will get a bowl game with a win here.  The Spartans’ football program is in disarray.

Va Tech at Louisville – 9.5 (49):  Both teams have only 1 conference loss and they are looking up at Florida St. in the standings.  The winner here is in a good place.

Navy – 6.5 at Temple (46):  Temple gives up 38 points per game all by themselves.  The Total Line here reflects the fact that Navy will predominantly run the football and keep the clock running thereby limiting the number of possessions and the number of scoring opportunities.

Iowa – 5 at Northwestern (30.5):  Iowa is one of four teams tied atop the Big-10 West; they need a win more than does Northwestern.  Absent defensive scores or special teams’ scores, the first offense to put 15 points up should win this game.

Illinois at Minnesota – 2 (43):  Minnesota is in that mix atop the Big-10 West race.  Illinois is not…

Kentucky – 3 at Mississippi St. (46):  Kentucky has lost three games in a row – – but those losses have come at the hands of Georgia, Mizzou and Tennessee.  Those are top teams in the SEC and Mississippi St. is definitively not a top team in the SEC.  Yes, Mississippi St. is much tougher at home than on the road, but I think Kentucky is the significantly better team here; I like Kentucky to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Oregon St. – 13.5 at Colorado (63):  I suspect that Colorado’s quest for bowl-eligibility will take a big hit in this one…

Army at Air Force – 19 (31.5):  Wow, that is a huge spread for a game between two service academies.  Air Force is undefeated and is eyeing a possible New Year’s Day Bowl Game; Army is on the SHOE Tournament watch list.

Cal at Oregon – 24.5 (59):  Cal scored 49 points on USC last week; they won’t do that again here.  Oregon has plenty of incentive to keep its foot on the gas in this one; it could get very ugly.

UCLA – 3.5 at Arizona (51.5):  Arizona would become bowl eligible with a win here.  Last week, I liked Arizona as a home underdog with the better defense.  Arizona won that game outright.  I think the same situation obtains here PLUS UCLA arrives with a seemingly gaudy 6-2 record, but the Bruins have not beaten anyone of note all season long.  I’ll take Arizona plus the points again this week; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Washington – 3 at USC (76):  This is my College Game of the Week.  Washington needs the game to remain unbeaten knowing that one of the teams ranked ahead of them today must lose when Michigan and Ohio St. play later.  It also features two serious Heisman candidates in Caleb Willliams and Michael Penix Jr.

Kansas at Iowa St. – 3 (53):  Iowa St. is one of 5 conference teams with only 1 conference loss; Kansas already has 2 conference losses; the game means more to Iowa St.  However, the same was true last week when Kansas rose up and beat Oklahoma (see above).  Can the Jayhawks replicate that kind of game?

LSU at Alabama – 3 (60): This was my runner-up for the College Game of the Week.  Alabama leads the SEC West with a 5-0 record; LSU – – along with Ole Miss – – is in second place at 4-1.  If LSU wins the game, the SEC West will become highly interesting because Alabama has beaten Ole Miss and Ole Miss has beaten LSU and now …  The LSU defense has played well the last two weeks, but it will be missing two starters in this game; can the Tigers make up for those absences?  Alabama’s defensive prowess is not in question, but Alabama’s offense has been a bit of “hit-or-miss” in 2023.  I think the Alabama offense can get well against the “spotty” LSU defense AND I think the LSU offense is plenty good enough to challenge the ‘Bama defense.  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  This is the Saturday night game in Prime Time for Eastern Time Zone viewers.  I’ll be watching…

Oklahoma – 6 at Oklahoma St. (60.5):  The Total Line opened the week at 70 points and has plummeted more than 9 points during the week.  Both teams bring 4-1 conference records to the field; the loser could be eliminated from contention for the Big-12 Championship.

Missouri at Georgia – 15 (56):  Georgia is undefeated in 2023; Missouri is the only SEC East team with only 1 loss.  An upset for Mizzou here could easily vault them into the SEC Championship Game because they would own a tiebreaker over Georgia and the teams could each finish with 1 loss.  Missouri QB, Brady Cook, has thrown for 300+ yards in Mizzou’s last 4 games; can he do that to the Georgia defense?  Georgia QB, Carson Beck, has had three straight games with 300+ yards passing; can he keep that up in this game?  This is a great game to watch because Georgia could win by more than 4 TDs – – OR – – Mizzou could win outright at Money Line odds of +520.

  • I am not making a pick in this game, but I suspect that Georgia has put the pieces together for the season as shown in last week’s demolition of Florida.  If I am right, they will cover 15 points with ease, but I only suspect that to be the case …

Texas A&M at Ole Miss -3 (54):  Mississippi needs a win to remain part of the conversation in the SEC East should LSU prevail this weekend.

K-State at Texas – 4 (49):  Both teams have only one conference loss in Big-12 play.  This is virtually an elimination game for the loser.

Hawaii at Nevada – 3.5 (50.5):   SHOE Tournament implications here…

Notre Dame – 3 at Clemson (44):  The Irish will not be part of the CFP but would love to get a New Year’s Day Bowl bid…

 

NFL Commentary

 

Let me begin this section with an “update issue”:

  • The Eagles only sacked Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell, once in last week’s game.  That means Howell has been sacked 41 times in 8 games putting him on pace to be sacked 87 times for the season.  The NFL record is 76 sacks in a season.

That update could possibly indicate that the Commanders have figured out how to protect Sam Howell more effectively.  However, I wonder if the team is “protecting” him properly in a larger sense.  Consider:

  • The Commanders ran 69 offensive plays against the Eagles last week and 53 of those plays were passes or attempted passes.
  • The score was tied, or the Commanders were in the lead until the final 7 minutes of the game; it is not as if the Commanders had to play “catch-up” until then.

Remember when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon in Week 1 and there was such an outcry about the evils of artificial turf?  Well, there really was such a weeping and gnashing of teeth; go check it out for yourself.  The NFLPA even got to the point where it “demanded” that all NFL stadiums convert to natural grass.  [Aside:  Growing and maintaining natural grass in a domed stadium is tricky business…]

Well, last week on the natural grass of Lambeau Field, Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon.  Did you hear any outcry about the playing surface?  Did you hear any apologies from the shriekers who accused the turf of harming Aaron Rodgers?  I didn’t …

Jaren Hall, a rookie from BYU, replaced Cousins last week.  At the time, the QBs on the Vikes’ roster were Hall, Sean Mannion and Nick Mullens.  The Vikes are 4-4 and have to decide on how to proceed for the rest of 2023; they are in the hunt for a playoff slot; or they could bag the season and try to figure out what to do at QB for next year – – because Cousins is an unrestricted free agent come next March.  I think what the Vikes did was to kick the can down the road.  They traded with the Cards to acquire Josh Dobbs to play QB – – for now.

The Vikes’ schedule is relatively soft for the next few weeks; they could build up some wins in that stretch to enhance their playoff possibilities:

  • At Falcons
  • Vs. Saints
  • At Broncos
  • Vs. Bears
  • BYE WEEK
  • At Raiders

After that soft spot in the schedule with winnable games stacked one upon another, the sledding gets a bit more difficult for the Vikes down the home stretch:

  • At Bengals
  • Vs. Lions
  • Vs. Packers
  • At Lions

And for the record, that trade means the Cards will go with rookie, Clayton “Name That” Tune as their QB until Kyler Murray is ready to take over those duties.  Murray practiced with the team last week and is expected back before Thanksgiving.

From the games last weekend …

Seahawks 24  Browns 20:  The Seahawks ran off to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but the Browns’ defense kept the score in check such that the Browns had the lead 20-17 as the 4th quarter began.  The Seahawks took possession at their own 43 yardline with 1:20 left to play in the game and drove 57 yards in 5 plays to score the winning TD.  PJ Walker committed 3 turnovers in the game (2 INTs and a lost fumble) and that was more than the Browns’ defense could cover for.

Broncos 24  Chiefs 9:  The Broncos hadn’t beaten the Chiefs since 2015, and they had never beaten Patrick Mahomes.  They say that Patrick Mahomes had the flu all week and was not fully recovered for the game.  That might explain his zero TDs and 2 INTs in the game.  That does not explain how:

  • The Chiefs’ running game amassed only 62 yards in the game – – or – –
  • The Chiefs’ defense held Russel Wilson to 86 yards passing but allowed 3 TD passes in the game.

I chalk this result up to the adage, “On any given Sunday…”

Ravens 31  Cards 24:  The Cards slightly outgained the Ravens in the game; the Cards had one more first down than the Ravens.  That is the good news for the Cards.  The bad news is that the Cards turned the ball over twice and the Ravens never turned the ball over.  Those two Cards’ turnovers were INTs, and both led to TDs by the Ravens

Bengals 31  Niners 17:  That is 3 losses in a row for the Niners dropping them a half-game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West standings. In each of those 3 losses, the niners’ offense only produced 17 points.  The Niners moved the ball well producing 460 yards on offense but that only translated into 17 points.  Brock Purdy had a good day throwing for 365 yards in the game – – but he also threw 2 INTs that were harmful; I believe that makes 6 turnovers for Purdy in the last 3 games.  Christian McCaffrey broke Lenny Moore’s record for touchdowns in consecutive games (17), set in 1963-64.  With the win, the Bengals kept pace behind the Ravens who also won last week.  Every team in the AFC North is above .500 this week.

Titans 28  Falcons 23:  This was the first start for Titans’ rookie QB, Will Levis and it was most impressive:

  • 19 of 29 for 238 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs

DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those four touchdown passes.  That stat line suggests to me that Levis should be the starter going forward even if Ryan Tannehill is fully recovered for this weekend.  Meanwhile, the Falcons benched Desmond Ridder at halftime; the Falcons offense in the first half totaled only 89 yards and Ridder had taken 5 sacks.  He was replaced by Taylor Heinicke who rallied the team in the second half but still fell short.

Bills 24  Bucs 18:  The Bills are in second place in the AFC East – – one game behind the Dolphins.  The Bucs’ loss drops their record to 3-4 and puts them a game behind both the Saints and the Falcons in the NFC South. The Bills outgained the Bucs by 125 yards in the game and yet only won by 6 points.  It is very difficult to anticipate how either of these teams will play from game to game.

Chargers 30  Bears 13:  Tyler Bagent started his first NFL game and played the whole way.  Frankly, he played better than several other “backup QBs” played last week and he did not look confused or intimidated by the experience at all.  The difference here is that the Chargers played a complete game with solid execution in all phases of the game.  That was too much for the Bears last week – – and it would have been no matter who was playing QB for the Bears last week.

Panthers 15  Texans 13:  This gets the Panthers off the schneid; now, there are no winless teams in the NFL in 2023.  It was a defensive game:

  • Panthers’ Total Offense = 224 yards
  • Texans’ Total Offense = 229 yards

The Panthers won on a 23-yard field goal with 3 seconds left in the game.

Jags 20  Steelers 10:  The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett to a rib injury at the end of the first half and turned to Mitchell Trubisky for the second half.  That didn’t work well; Trubisky did throw a TD pass, but he also threw 2 INTs in the second half.  The Jags committed 3 turnovers in the game which is usually a formula for losing – – but not with the Steelers’ offense in sputtering mode here.

Cowboys 43  Rams 20:  This game was out of hand by the middle of the second quarter; the Cowboys led at halftime 33-9.  Making things even worse for the Rams, Matthew Stafford had to sit out the 4th quarter with a thumb injury on his throwing hand; Brett Rypien was his ineffective replacement.  The Cowboys’ offense, defense and special teams were firing on all cylinders in the game:

  • Offense produced 387 yards total offense
  • Defense produced a Pick-Six
  • Special teams blocked a punt resulting in a safety

The Rams need Stafford to be able to throw effectively ASAP if they hope to remain relevant in the NFC playoff conversation.  The Rams are 3-5 and have a winnable game coming up against the Packers – – if Stafford can play near his normal level of competence.

Vikes 24  Packers 10:  This may have been a Pyrrhic victory; Kirk Cousins had to leave the game on a cart with a torn Achilles tendon which means “out for the season”.  The backup QB was Jaren Hall – – a rookie QB out of BYU taken in the fifth round in last April’s Draft.  The Vikes led 10-3 at the half but broke it open with 2 TDs in the first 9 minutes of the third quarter.   The Packers had the ball in the Red Zone twice in the 4th quarter and scored 0 points on both incursions.

Dolphins 31  Pats 17:  After a competent showing two weeks ago against the Bills, the Pats’ offense reverted to its more customary stature – – plodding incompetence.  The Pats’ defense is good, but it needs some production from the offense to be competitive:

  • Pats’ Total Offense = 218 yards
  • Pats’ Time of Possession = 24:05
  • Pats had 3 “drives” of “three-and-out” and another “drive” of “four-and-out.”

Meanwhile, Tua had a big day producing this stat line:

  • 30 of 45 for 324 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

Saints 38  Colts 27:  Until this game, the Saints’ offense had been mundane in 2023; it sprang to life in this game generating 511 yards total offense.  In the 7 games leading up to this one, the Saints had only scored more than 20 points twice this season.  Derek Carr threw for 350 yards and 2 TDs in the game.  The Colts kept it close for half the game; the Saints only led 21-20 at halftime.  The Colts’ defense is problematic; this is the third game in a row that it has given up 37 or more points.

Jets 13  Giants 10 (OT):  This game was like watching a mudslide slowly advancing and, in the process, demolishing a housing community.  You don’t see it often – – and you are glad that is the case.

  • There were 23 points scored in this contest.  There were 24 punts in the game.  You don’t see that sort of thing very often.
  • The Giants’ passing offense was minus-9 yards for the game.  You don’t see that sort of thing very often.
  • The teams combined to go 4 of 34 on third-down conversions.  You don’t see that sort of thing very often.

Tyrod Taylor started the game in place of Daniel Jones at QB for the Giants.  Taylor had to leave the game in the first half with a rib injury that sent him to the hospital at least overnight.  His replacement was Tommy DeVito a rookie from Syracuse who scored a running TD in the second half but whose passing stats were:

  • 2 of 7 for minus-1 yard with 0 TDs and 0 INTs.

Eagles 38  Commanders 31:  I said last week, this was a “sandwich game” for the Eagles and they played that way for 3 quarters of the game.  The score was tied 17-17 starting the 4th quarter.  AJ Brown had another monster game with 8 receptions for 130 yards and 2 TDs.  He set an all-time NFL record by having more than 125 yards receiving in 6 consecutive games.  If you are discussing who is the best WR in the league in 2023, Brown must be in the discussion.  The Commanders actually outgained the Eagles for the day by almost 100 yards and the Eagles turned the ball over twice inside the Commanders’ 5 yardline.  And still the Eagles won the game…

Lions 26  Raiders 14:  Looking at the score, you might think the outcome of this game was in doubt for more than the first 10 minutes or so.  Not so; the Lions completely dominated the play.  The Lions outgained Raiders by 389 yards in the game and registered 6 sacks. Consider:

  • Lion’s time of possession = 39:33
  • Lions’ first downs = 29   Raiders’ first downs = 12
  • Lions’ total offense = 486 yards   Raiders’ total offense = 157 yards.
  • [Aside:  The Lions’ offense was more than triple the Raiders’ offense here.]
  • And for good measure, the Raiders turned the ball over 3 times in the game.  Lions’ rookie RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, made it look easy while logging these stats:
  • 26 carries for 152 yards and 1 TD
  • 5 pass receptions for 37 yards

The Lions are 6-2; they lead the NFC North by 2 games over the Vikes who must navigate the rest of the year with Josh Dobbs at QB in place of Kirk Cousins.  Absent injury woes of their own, the Lions’ path to the NFC North title seems like a smooth one.

 

Games This Week:

 

“BYE Weeks” took a BYE Week last weekend; all 16 teams were in action.  Not so this week, four teams have the week off:

  1. Broncos:  They have an extra week to enjoy their upset of the Chiefs and to celebrate the first time the Broncos have ever beaten Patrick Mahomes.
  2. Jags:  The Jags are 6-2 and both losses were at home.  They get an extra week to figure out why that is the case.
  3. Lions:  They are also 6-2 and can use the week off to heal injuries and figure out ways to keep this momentum going.
  4. Niners:  They have lost 3 in a row.  Other than getting Deebo Samuel back from injury, what do they need to do to get back to winning ways?

            In last night’s game, the Steelers beat the Titans 20-16.  In case there was any ambiguity how and why the Steelers advance their record to 5-3, let me offer up some facts for our consideration:

  1. In their 3 losses, the Steelers have scored 7 points, 6 points and 10 points.  It’s hard to win in the NFL when one’s offense plays like that.
  2. In their 5 wins, the Steelers have scored an average of 20 points per game.  It takes an awfully stingy defense to live on the edge like that.

The Steelers’ offense generated 326 yards on offense meaning they have been above the 300-yard mark for only the second time in 2023.  At the same time, this was the 42nd consecutive week for the Steelers’ offense to fail to gain 400 yards in a game.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs – 2 (51) Game is in Germany:  For its first-ever regular season game in Germany, the NFL provides fans with two teams leading their divisions.  This is a yardstick game for the Dolphins; their record is 6-2 but none of the 6 teams they beat has a winning record in 2023.  They have played two teams with winning records (Bills and Eagles) and have lost both of those games badly.  The Chiefs are a good team with a winning record; the Dolphins’ credibility is on the line here.  This game is good enough to set an alarm to assure you are up and ready to watch, starting at 9:30 AM on Sunday.  You like trends for NFL games?  Here’s one:

  • Patrick Mahomes has won his last 8 starts after a loss.
  • The Chiefs lost last week.

Vikes at Falcons – 4 (37):  It looks as if Jaren Hall will be the Vikes’ QB as the team gives Josh Dobbs a week to “learn the system”.  The Falcons may or may not start Desmond Ridder; if not, they will go with Taylor Heinicke who will either light up the Vikes or find a way to lose a turnover at the most critical moment of the game.  This game was a contender for Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Don’t watch it; don’t wager on it.

Seahawks at Ravens – 6 (44):  Both teams lead their division; both teams are good.  I think the Ravens are the better team but not by much.  Lamar Jackson is 17-1 against NFC opponents in his career; he even won last week against the Cards when he only offered up his “C+ game”.

Cards at Browns – 7 (37):  The spread for this game is all over the place this morning.  I found it as low as 6.5-points and as high as 9 points at one sportsbook today.  Who will be the Browns’ QB?  That is a “game-time decision”.  Deshaun Watson is “Questionable” – – in just about every sense of the word – – with PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the wings.  The Cards will start rookie Clayton Tune.  And some folks will actually bet cash money on this game…  Amazing.

Rams at Packers – 3 (38):  The spread opened the week with the Rams as 2-point favorites.  The Rams were dominated by the Cowboys last week and Matthew Stafford may or may not be over his thumb injury.  If he can’t go, Brett Rypien will be the Rams’ QB in a game the Rams need to win to maintain relevance.  The spread movement tells me that most folks do not anticipate Matthew Stafford in the game.  Meanwhile, the Packers stunk out the joint last week also.  A loss for the Packers here would put them four full games behind the Lions in the NFC North.  This is a game that one team will lose and the other will win by default.

Bucs at Texans – 3 (40):  The Bucs are on a three-game losing streak; the Texans lost last week to the previously winless Panthers.  Neither team is riding a wave coming into this one.  This is not nearly the worst game of the weekend, but it is one to avoid if possible.

Commanders at Pats – 3 (41):  The Commanders defense has given up 228 points so far this year (28.5 points per game); that is the worst in the NFC and second in the NFL only to the Colts who have given up 229 points so far this year.  On the other side of the ball, the Pats’ offense only produces 14.8 points per game.  The Commanders’ defensive backfield has been regularly torched this season; the Pats’ WRs are substandard at best.  I will have to watch this game because of my geolocation on Sunday; if you have other choices, exercise those choices.

Bears at Saints – 9 (41):  The Saints have a good defense; sometimes they have a decent offense too.  The Bears will still start Tyson Bagent in the game, and I don’t think he is up to going toe-to-toe with the Saints’ defensive unit.  But do I trust Derek Carr to have two big games in a row?

Colts – 2 at Panthers (44):  Both teams are in the cellar in their division.  Both teams might realistically aspire to mediocrity this year.  I am a bit surprised at the Total Line being as low as it is.  The Colts give up points galore; if Colts’ QB Gardner Minshew has one of his “magical games” this total could be near 60 points.

Giants at Raiders – 1.5 (37):  These are two bad teams; this is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Raiders’ defense was torched for almost 500 yards last week (see above).  The Giants’ offense only averages 11.9 points per game.  The Raiders come to the game with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator and a new QBs coach and they plan to start rookie Aiden O’Connell at QB.  Those sorts of changes can produce great highs or mass confusion.  The constant in this equation is the Giants; they will play solid if not spectacular defense and will be miserable on offense.

Cowboys at Eagles – 3 (47):  This is my Game of the Week.  This is a big game for both teams.  The Eagles lead the NFC East by 1.5 games; if they win here, that becomes a commanding lead equivalent to 3 games given they would hold the tiebreaker at least until the rematch in Dallas later this year.  The last three times Dak Prescott has faced the Eagles, the Cowboys have won all 3 games.  I have seen the Eagles play 3 times this year and I believe that Jalen Hurts is not at “full strength”.  I like the Cowboys plus the points in this game – – even on the road in Philly; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Bills at Bengals – 2 (49.5):  The spread opened the week with the Bills as a 1-point favorite but that did not last long.  Josh Allen versus Joe Burrow will be most entertaining to watch, and the Bengals seem to have steadied the ship in recent weeks.  When things go right for the Bills, they can beat anyone; but they have had too many games in 2023 where everything seems to be a half-note off key.  I like the Bengals at home in this game laying less than a field goal; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Chargers – 3 at Jets (40):  The Chargers beat the Bears handily last week; does that mean they have found the keys to success?  The Jets will field a much better defense than did the Bears last week and it’s a long trip from LA to the Meadowlands for the Chargers.  I am tempted to take the points here – – but I will resist.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

  • Kentucky – 3 over Mississippi St.
  • LSU/Alabama OVER 60
  • Arizona +3 against UCLA
  • Cowboys +3 against Eagles
  • Bengals – 2 over Bills

And here are two Money Line Parlays – – one college and one NFL – – just for fun:

  • Browns @ minus-350
  • Saints @ minus-380
  • Ravens @ minus-260   $100 wager to win $125.

And …

  • Wisconsin @ minus-340
  • Oregon St. @ minus-460
  • SMU @ minus-400     $100 wager to win $97.

Finally, let me close with these words from Alabama head coach, Nick Saban:

“Mediocre people don’t like high achievers, and high achievers don’t like mediocre people.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Rest In Peace, Bob Knight

Bob Knight died yesterday at the age of 83.  He was the coach of three Indiana basketball teams that won the National Championship, and he was a member of the Ohio State basketball team that won the National Championship in 1960 with a win over Cal in the final game.  Two of his teammates on that Ohio State team were Jerry Lucas and John Havlicek.

To say that Coach Knight was controversial in his demands of his players would be like saying Michaelangelo was good at painting ceilings.  He demanded effort and specific technique from his players; and when they did not deliver either, Coach Knight did not react in a warm and fuzzy manner.  Here is a quote from Coach Knight that might illustrate his thinking on player motivation:

“The greatest motivator in the world is your ass on the bench. Ass meets bench, bench retains ass, ass transmits signals to the brain, brain transmits signals to the body, body gets ass off bench and plays better. It’s a hell of a sequence.”

Knight began his coaching career at Army where one of his point guards was a kid named Mike Krzyzewski – – who went on to have a pretty good coaching career himself.  In fact, Knight was instrumental in getting Krzyzewski the job at Duke because when the job became open, the AD at Duke sought a recommendation from Knight who was at Indiana at the time and Knight suggested Krzyzewski for the job.

For all his less-than-polished edges and his famous tantrums, Bob Knight’s players generally went on in their lives as good citizens and productive members of society.  Maybe it was an admiration within the “Curmudgeon Community” that fostered it, but I was always an admirer of Robert Montgomery Knight.

Rest in peace, Coach Knight.

Since Bob Knight was a pillar in the edifice of college basketball, let me stay with that sport for a while.  There were reports late last week that the National Invitation Tournament (NIT) declared that they were going to change the way they managed and offered up “invitations” to their event.

Starting at the end of this college basketball season in March 2024, the NIT will no longer offer automatic invitations to teams that were regular-season conference champions but who did not win their conference tournament and who did not get a slot in the NCAA Tournament.  Rather, the folks who run the NIT said:

  1. The NIT will guarantee two teams from each of six conferences (ACC, Big East, Big-10, Big-12, Pac-12, and SEC).
  2. The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of win-loss record, will be selected. Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT.

[Aside: “NET rankings” are mathematical constructs that replaced the wildly unpopular Ratings Power Index.  Both exercises purport to be able to identify an ordinal ranking of teams even if they have never played one another or comparable stables of opponents.]

I have no problem with Item #1 above.  The NIT is in existence to generate revenue for its owner who just happens to be the NCAA.  The fact of the matter is that second tier schools from the major conferences will attract greater attention than teams from minor conferences whose champs are in the ”Big Dance” mostly as cannon fodder for the dozen or so teams who have a real shot at winning it all.  Think about it:

  • If Princeton wins the Ivy League and goes to the NCAA Tournament, how much interest will be generated by inviting Brown to the NIT?
  • If Texas A&M-Corpus Christi wins the Southland conference and goes to the NCAA Tournament, how much interest will be generated by inviting McNeese State?
  • Ditto for the Horizon Conference and the Summit Conference etc.

At the same time, one can argue that such a move by the NIT to put 12 automatic teams from the “Big Conferences” regardless of won-lost records means that when the NCAA Tournament mavens invite 5 teams from one conference (say the ACC), that means the NIT will guarantee an invitation to -at best- the sixth and seventh best teams in the conference even with losing records for the season.  So, how appealing is that?

I have suggested this format in the past and I offer it up once again as a way to populate the NCAA Tournament and the NIT:

  1. The NCAA Selection Committee should choose 96 teams and seed them as best it can from #1 to #96.  There will surely be errors and misjudgments in those seedings, but such errors can be corrected on the court.
  2. The Top-32 teams would get a BYE.  Teams 64 seeded #33 through #96 would engage in a play-in tournament round.
  3. The 32 winners of the play-in round would be part of the NCAA Tournament and seeded there in the order they were seeded prior to the play-in round.
  4. The 32 losers of the play-in round would make up the field for the NIT.

If the Selection Committee is actually doing the job that it was constituted to do, it will be able to recognize an outstanding team from a minor conference that might be overshadowed for a 68-team tournament field and place that team in a seeding between #68 and #96.  If the Committee is not up to that task, then I submit that it is equally not up to the task of selecting and seeding the top 68 teams to make up the NCAA Tournament field.

And of course, congratulations to the Texas Rangers – – winners of the 2023 World Series in 5 games.  This is the first World Series title in franchise history for the Rangers.  Corey Seager was voted the MVP of the Series in what had to be the most obvious selection process of the year.  This marks the second time Seager has been the MVPO of a World Series; only three other players have repeated as Series MVPs:

  • Bob Gibson
  • Reggie Jackson
  • Sandy Koufax

Not a bad list to add one’s name to …

Finally, Bob Knight was an avid fly fisherman and enjoyed fishing trips with one of his childhood heroes, Ted Williams.  So, let me close today with this view of fishing by the American humorist, Don Marquis:

“Fishing is a delusion entirely surrounded by liars in old clothes.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………