Football Friday – – On Thursday 11/23/23

A Happy Thanksgiving to one and all …

Let me begin today with a description of Thanksgiving Day by Johnny Carson:

“Thanksgiving is an emotional holiday. People travel thousands of miles to be with people they only see once a year. And then discover once a year is way too much.”

And now down to business …

In a deviation from the norm, Football Friday will take place on Thursday this week.  The reason I am doing that is because I have the time to get the stuff together and put this on the street before today’s football and food orgy and tomorrow’s semi-comatose condition.  So, I shall begin with the usual review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  2-0-0  =>  Season  =  16-8-0
• NFL  =  2-1-0  =>  Season  = 14-11-0
• No Parlays Last Week  =>  Season  = 7-9  =>  Profit = $153

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Syracuse fired Dino Babers as head football coach.  He had one great year winning 10 games but overall has a losing record (41-55) and a losing record in conference games.  Long ago, Syracuse produced players like Jim Brown, Larry Czonka and Ernie Davis.  Over the last 30 years or so, Syracuse is just not a “football school”.  I doubt that is going to change with a new coach there.

Last week, New Mexico State got paid to come to Auburn for an ass-kicking in front of alums there; one report said the payment was $1.8M.  Well NM State was a rude houseguest; the Aggies dominated the game and won 31-10.  Auburn was a 25-point favorite in the game; the Money Line posted for New Mexico St. closed at +1450.  I said the Aggies dominated; here is what I mean:

• NM St Total Offense = 414 yards
• Auburn Total Offense = 209 yards

The Aggies will play Liberty for the C-USA championship next week.

Rumors swirled last week that Chip Kelly was on a hot seat that was approaching solar levels of heat.  Well, last week, the Bruins beat archrival USC 38-20 which may have given pause to those rumors.  We shall see…   That makes 5 losses in the last 6 games for USC and the idea that USC QB, Caleb Williams was the one and only possibility for the Heisman Trophy has gathered a lot of dust.  Question:

• If Kelly was on a hot seat shouldn’t Lincoln Riley be on one now?

The AAC has an interesting situation.  Three teams have conference records of 7-0 – – Texas -San Antonio, Tulane and SMU.  UTSA plays Tulane on Friday; SMU plays Navy on Saturday.  Assuming an SMU victory – – the Mustangs are an 18-point favorite – -, the conference championship will be SMU versus the winner of the UTSA/Tulane game.

The CFP will expand from 4 teams to 12 teams next year.  I am afraid that there could be some very lopsided results from the first-round games in such an expanded tournament, but the revenue that will be generated from the extra 8 games will assure the survival of such an expansion. This year’s four-team field is currently overcrowded with 6 undefeated teams (remember, Liberty has not lost a game yet) trying to squeeze into a four-team field.  One of those unbeaten teams will go down this week in the Ohio St./Michigan game probably clearing the way for the Selection Committee to gather itself before making its final decision on the 2023 participants.

But allow me a flight of fancy for a moment here.  Suppose the football gods sent down a lightening bolt to the earthly football mavens directing them to do a 12-team tournament this year and not to wait until 2024.  What might a 12-team field look like?   Here are nine teams I think would be consensus picks:

1. Alabama
2. Florida St.
3. Georgia
4. Michigan
5. Missouri
6. Ohio St.
7. Oregon
8. Texas
9. Washington

If the football gods demand a team from outside the Power-5 conferences, the Selection Committee can take its pick between:

• AAC champion (could be SMU, Tulane or UTSA) – – or – –
• Liberty – – or – –
• UNLV

And now reality sets in.  One of the things that proponents of an expanded field have said was that more slots would avoid arguments about which team got left out of the short field.  Well, if my field this year now has 10 teams in it, I have to pick two more from a list that has more than two teams on it with a claim to one of the remaining slots.  Pick two from here:

• K-State
• Louisville
• LSU
• Oklahoma
• Oklahoma St.
• Oregon St.
• Penn St.

In a 12-team field, I would expect the Top 8 teams to be rather obvious and sometimes the Top 10.  But the representative from outside the Power-5 and the final team or two in the field will always be controversial.  And no, expanding to 16 teams will not solve the problem; all that will do is push the controversy down the line a bit.

Let me do a review of the important games from last week differently here:

James Madison lost its first game of the year last week in OT to App State.  JMU cannot play for the conference championship for the same dumb reason it cannot be in a bowl game for 2 years after jumping up from Division 1-AA.  However, it can still get a bowl game IF and only IF there are not enough 6-win teams in the country to fill the 82 bowl slots out there.

Louisville beat Miami 38-31and that result guarantees that the ACC Championship Game will be Louisville versus Florida State.

Florida State remained unbeaten last week beating a cupcake in North Alabama by 45 points – – but the Seminoles saw their starting QB, Jordan Travis, carted off the field with a leg injury.  Travis’ season is over; his collegiate career may also be over if he declares for the NFL Draft next spring.

Texas beat Iowa State 26-16 taking one step more toward clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins the Big-12 championship, that gives the Big-12 a shot at being in the CFP as a Power-5 conference champion with only one loss.  No other Big-12 team could do that.

Northwestern became bowl eligible by beating Purdue 23-15.  Given all the turmoil surrounding that program, that is quite an accomplishment.

Iowa beat Illinois and guaranteed the Hawkeyes will be in the Big-10 Championship Game as the West Division representative.  Only once this season has Iowa allowed an opponent to score more than 16 points in a game.  In their last 7 games, the Hawkeyes have yielded a total of only 68 points.

Navy pitched a shutout last week.  That is the third shutout of the season for the Navy defense.  Iowa has ridden its stout defense to the Big-10 West Championship; Navy – – on the other hand – – now has a record of 5-5 and will not be part of the AAC championship picture (see above).     The Army/Navy game could be even more interesting than usual in two weeks.  Army is currently 5-6; Navy is 5-5 and should lose this weekend.  Therefore, when Army and Navy meet:

• It could mean a bowl eligibility for the winner – – PLUS – –
• The Commander in Chief Trophy for Army if it wins the game.

UNLV beat Air Force 31-27 to take possession of the MWC lead.  The Rebels play at home this week against San Jose St who sit one game behind UNLV in the Mountain West standings.

Shedeur Sanders was sacked four times in Colorado’s first 10 plays and was eventually forced out of the game against Washington State.  Things then came apart quickly and Washington State dominated by a score of 56-14.  Colorado is now 4-7 on the season; all 7 losses are conference losses.  If the Buffaloes are going to be “rejuvenated” next year under Coach Prime, they are going to have to bring in some quality talent on both the offensive line and the defensive line.  Colorado’s team speed at the skill positions is impressive – – but games are won and lost in the trenches and Colorado is deficient there.

Arizona beat Utah in a rout and kept alive the possibility of facing Washington in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  Arizona built a 28-0 lead early in the second quarter and put it on cruise control for the rest of the day.

Washington guaranteed itself a place in the PAC-12 Championship game by beating Oregon St.  Next week is the Apple Bowl game for the Huskies against Washington St.  The PAC-12 Championship Game will be Washington versus either Oregon or Arizona.

Here are the teams on my watchlist for the SHOE Tournament as of this morning:

1. Akron  2-9
2. Arizona St.  3-8
3. Baylor  3-8
4. East Carolina  2-9
5. Indiana  3-8
6. Kent St.  1-10
7. La-Monroe  2-9
8. Nevada  2-9
9. Stanford  3-8
10. UConn  2-9
11. UMass  3-8  [Aside:  UMass and UConn play this week.  Oh joy!]
12. Vandy  2-9

One last item of business here is to present the contenders for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award:

• UMass gives up 38.5 points per game.
• USF gives up 36.8 points per game.
• North Texas gives up 36.6 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Four quick points before listing the games:

1. I totally missed an important game last week – – Washington/Oregon St.  It was a boneheaded error on my part; I shall seek not to repeat such behavior.
2. There are loads of rivalry games this week.
3. These are early week lines which will probably change – – sometimes significantly – – before game time.
4. There are too many longstanding and heated rivalry games this week to pick one of them as the College Game of the Week – – so I won’t try to do that.

(Fri afternoon) Iowa at Nebraska – 2.5 (26):  I know what you are thinking; that must be a typo for the Total Line; surely it must be higher than 26 points.  Nope.  The Total Line opened at 27.5 points and has been bet down to this level.  Nebraska ranks 121^st in the country in scoring offense; there is no way against the Iowa defense that I could take the Huskers and give points away; but I can take Iowa plus points and so I will; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri afternoon) TCU at Oklahoma – 10 (63):  The Sooners still have a shot at the Big-12 Championship Game.

(Fri afternoon) Missouri – 7.5 at Arkansas (55):  Missouri has its eye on a New Year’s Day Bowl invitation, and it is the better team.  Even on the road, I like the Tigers to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri afternoon) Air Force at Boise St. – 6.5 (46):  Air Force started the year 8-0, but they have lost their last 3 games in a row.

(Fri Nite) Oregon St. at Oregon – 14 (62):  Huge rivalry game known as “The Civil War”.

(Fri Nite) UTSA at Tulane – 3 (52):  The winner will play for the AAC Championship.

Ohio St. at Michigan – 3.5 (45):  Huge rivalry game here …  The winner plays for the Big-10 Championship and should be invited to the CFP.

Georgia – 24 at Georgia Tech (60):  This will be the 115^th meeting between the schools.  Georgia leads the series 70-39 with 5 tie games.  The Bulldogs are clearly the better team, but Tech has upset better teams twice this year.  That line just looks ripe for a meaningless late TD to produce a backdoor cover.

Kentucky at Louisville – 7 (50):  The Governor’s Cup is awarded to the winner of this game.  Kentucky has won the last four meetings.

UMass at UConn – 2.5 (50.5):  The loser of this game is definitely in the SHOE Tournament.  The winner might be there too…

Florida St. – 6.5 at Florida (49.5):  Huge rivalry game here …  Both teams will play minus their starting QB.  Florida becomes bowl eligible with a win here.

Va Tech – 2.5 at Virginia (51):  Huge rivalry game here …  Neither team is particularly good this year, but the game will be played with vigor.

Clemson – 7 at South Carolina (51.5):  Huge rivalry game here…  The Gamecocks have won three in a row and are 5-1 at home this year.

UNC – 2.5 at NC State (55):  Both teams bring records of 8-3 to the kickoff.  State has won four games in a row.

Vandy at Tennessee – 27 (56):  This is a rivalry game even though the two teams are rarely of similar caliber.  The first game in the series was in 1892; Tennessee leads the series 77-33 with 5 tie games.

Arizona – `10.5 at Arizona St. (49.5):  Since October 1^st, Arizona is 5-1 and has scored more than 30 points in a game 4 times.  Arizona St. has a 3-8 record this year and was demolished by Oregon last week.

San Jose St. at UNLV – 2.5 (59.5):  The winner plays for the Mountain West championship.

Notre Dame – 25 at Stanford (51.5):  Stanford won this rivalry game last year in South Bend, but Notre Dame leads in the series 21-14.

Washington St. at Washington – 16 (66.5):  Huge rivalry game here …  They call it “The Apple Bowl”.  Since the Huskies are guaranteed to be in the PAC-12 Championship Game, there may be an element of “looking ahead” here.  Washington St. can salvage its season with an upset here…

Alabama – 14.5 at Auburn (48):  Huge rivalry game here…  They call this “The Iron Bowl”.  Alabama leads this series 49-37 with 1 tie game.  Was Auburn “looking ahead” to this game when it lost badly to New Mexico St. last week?  Maybe so – – but it won’t really matter; Alabama is the better team.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers did something unusual this week.  They fired one of their coaches in the middle of the season.  The fan outcry added onto the lack of offensive production for the team over the past couple of seasons convinced Mike Tomlin to jettison offensive coordinator, Matt Canada.  He had been the OC in Pittsburgh for more than 2 seasons and the Steelers’ offense had never produced a 400-yard game in that time.  This year, the Steelers were under 300 yards seven times in ten games.

One of the bloggers who focuses on the Steelers has floated Ben Roethlisberger’s name as a potential replacement next season.  As for the rest of the season, Tomlin chose to name one of his assistants as the new offensive coordinator and another of his assistants as the play-caller.  Interesting …

Having seen a lot of the Steelers so far this year, let me offer – – free of charge of course – – two pieces of advice to the new offensive coordinator and the new play-caller:

1. The featured running back should be Jaylen Warren and not Najee Harris.
2. Teams are “stacking the box” against the Steelers; the offense must attack downfield just to get the linebackers and safeties to back off a bit.

The Colts released Shaq Leonard after their BYE Week.  Leonard was the NFL defensive rookie of the year in 2018 and is hardly a retread even if he is not in the conversation for any significant defensive award in 2023.  Yes, he had a back injury that required surgery, but unless that surgery has been a failure, he still has abilities that NFL teams can use.  I suspect that something is going on behind the scenes here – – especially if no one picks him up quickly.

The Jets announced a change at QB for next week. This is their second change of the season; the first one was involuntary when Aaron Rodgers was injured in Game 1.  Now Zach Wilson will go to the bench after a disappointing season for the Jets.  Wilson was pulled from the game against the Bills last week and replaced there by Tim Boyle whose performance in relief was hardly inspiring.  Here was Boyle’s stat line:

• 7 of 14 for 33 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Nonetheless, coach Robert Saleh is making the change possibly because the Jets under Wilson have only scored 9 offensive TDs in 10 games.  If you are not familiar with the career exploits of Tim Boyle, here is a thumbnail sketch:

• Boyle is 29 years old; he played college football at UConn and E. Kentucky.
• Boyle was an undrafted free agent originally signed by the Packers in 2018.
• Boyle has appeared in 18 games and started 3 times (for the Lions) since 2019.
• For his career he has thrown 3 TDs and 9 INTs.
• He has averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt and 8.2 yards per completion.

I am going to practice mind-reading here – – something I have admitted many times I am incapable of doing.  Nevertheless, when I see Zach Wilson sitting on the bench after throwing an INT or failing to convert a third-down try, I see someone who is not passionate about the game.  What I see is a guy sitting by himself on the bench staring off into the crowd; what I don’t see is a guy huddled with his coach going over images on the laptop computers on the sidelines that led to whatever failure put Wilson on the bench.  He makes me conclude that he really does not give much of a damn about the game in front of him.   Remember, this is mind-reading on my part, and I cannot read minds.  But that is the vibe I get…

The Bengals have lost Joe Burrow to wrist surgery for the rest of the year.  The Bengals are 5-5 and are in last place in the AFC North.  I think the Bengals are toast without Burrow because in addition to losing a star QB, the Bengals’ schedule is daunting indeed:

• Vs. Steelers – – current record is 6-4
• At Jags – – current record is 7-3
• Vs. Colts – – current record is 5-5
• Vs. Vikes – – current record is 6-5
• At Steelers – – current record is 6-5
• At Chiefs – – current record is 7-3
• Vs. Browns – – current record is 7-3.

The Bengals will not face a team that has a losing record as of this morning.  As a matter of fact, their opponents’ combined record as of today is 44 – 28 or a winning percentage of .611.

Just an update on Sam Howell and his sack rate.  The Giants got him 4 times last week, so he has now been sacked 50 times in 11 games.  That projects to 77 sacks for the season which keeps him on track to set a new NFL record.

So, here are comments on last week’s games:

Eagles 21  Chiefs 17:  The Chiefs dominated the stat sheet in many ways:

• Chiefs’ offense = 336 yards   Eagles’ offense = 238 yards
• Chiefs’ third down conversions = 8 of 17    Eagles’ conversions = 3 of 11
• Chiefs ran 74 plays   Eagles ran 54 plays

Add to those disparities the fact that the Chiefs held AJ Brown to 1 catch for 8 yards in the game and it is amazing that the Eagles kept the game close let alone came out with a win.  The Chiefs were shut out in the second half; here are their possessions in the second half:

• 4 plays – – 22 yards – – 2:36 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 3 yards – – 2:01 time of possession – – PUNT
• 12 plays – – 65 yards – – 5:50 time of possession – – FUMBLE
• 6 plays – – 24 yards – – 2:02 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-2 yards – – 0:52 time of possession – – PUNT
• 9 plays – – 25 yards – – 1:21 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

Texans 21  Cards 16:  The Cards’ defense pitched a shutout in the second half, but the Cards’ offense only managed 6 points in the second half, so the Texans held on for the win.  As of this morning, the Texans’ 6-4 record would have them in the AFC Playoffs as the seventh seed.  Remember, this team won only 3 games last year.  CJ Stroud has been incredible all season but had problems in the red zone last week. The Texans were only 1 of 4 in the red zone, and two of those failed drives were interceptions thrown by Stroud. He threw three interceptions in the game, and all came inside the Arizona 30-yard line.

Lions 31  Bears 26:  The Bears led this game 26-14 with only 4:15 left in the game.  Not to worry, the Lions scored a TD in a little over a minute cutting the lead to 26-21.  The Bears went three-and-out taking only 26 seconds off the clock leaving the Lions time to drive 73 yards in 11 plays to get a winning TD with less than 30 seconds left.  The Bears held the ball for more than 40 minutes in the game and still lost.  Giving a game like that away at the end is something the Lions have been famous for over the years …

Packers 23  Chargers 20:  The Chargers have five losses by three or fewer points this season.  Jordan Love out-played Justin Herbert here.

• 27 of 40 for 322 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs (Love)
• 21 of 36 for 260 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs (Herbert)

Dolphins 20  Raiders 13:  The Dolphins do not use “defense” as their calling card, but in this game the Miami defense held the Raiders scoreless in the second half.  The Dolphins’ offense outgained the Raiders by 124 yards in the game; Tyreek Hill caught 10 passes for 146 yards and 1 TD.  Nonetheless, the Raiders hung with the Dolphins until Jalen Ramsey intercepted a pass in the end zone to seal the deal for the Dolphins.  Josh Jacobs had begun to look and play like the defending NFL rushing champ in the previous couple of weeks; not so here; he carried the ball 14 times for only 39 yards.

Cowboys 33  Panthers 10:  This is a typical Cowboys’ performance against a bad team; the Cowboys punish those sorts of teams.  The Cowboys’ defense held the Panthers and Bryce Young to 77 net yards passing for the game.  The Panthers turned the ball over twice and they also gifted the Cowboys 5 first downs on penalties for the day.  This outcome was never in doubt.   The Panthers had minus-3 yards in the fourth quarter on 10 plays.

Giants 31  Commanders 19:  I said last week that the Commanders have a propensity to play down to the level of bad teams.  Well, the Giants were – – and still are – – a bad team; so’ how did the Commanders manage to lose this game?  Let me count the ways:

1. Giants came to the game averaging 11.8 points per game; the Commanders allowed 31 points.
2. Giants came to the game giving up 26.6 points per game on average; the Commanders scored only 17 points.
3. Giants allowed 9 sacks in the game and still won the game.
4. Giants defense gave up 403 yards and still won the game.
5. Commanders ran 77 plays; Giants ran 54 plays; Giants still won the game.
6. Commanders committed 6 turnovers in the game.
7. Commanders had almost 36 minutes time of possession – – and lost.
8. Commanders averaged 6.2 yards per rush attempt – – and lost.

Oh, did I mention that the Giants played their third string QB – – Tommy DeVito – – who had looked overwhelmed in his previous game appearances but who threw 3 TD passes in this game and zero INTs?  This game by the Commanders is the leader in the clubhouse for The NFL Bedwetting of the Year!

Browns 13  Steelers 10:  Totally a defense dominated game on both sides.  The teams combined to go 7 for 31 on third-down conversions.  There were 17 punts in the game.  The Browns only averaged 3.7 yards per pass which is awful until you notice that the Steelers only averaged 2.5 yards per pass attempt.  As noted above, the Steelers fired OC Matt Canada after this game was over.

Jags 34  Titans 14:  The Jags led 27-0 when the Titans finally got on the scoreboard with 5 seconds left to play in the third quarter.  Trevor Lawrence threw 2 TD passes and ran for 2 more TDs in the game.  The Titans are toast.

Niners 27  Bucs 14:  During the Niners’ 3-game losing streak, Brock Purdy played poorly.  Not so here against a good Bucs’ defense:

• 21 of 25 for 333 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

Brandon Aiyuk had a spectacular game catching 5 passes for 156 yards and 1 TD.  This win puts the Niners back in control in the NFC West.

Bills 32  Jets 6:  This game was not as close as the score looks; it was a game where the Bills could do just about anything they wanted to do.

• Bills’ offense = 393 yards
• Jets’ offense = 155 yards

This is the first game the Bills have played with their new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, who got the job when the Bills fired Ken Dorsey about a week ago.

Broncos 21  Vikes 20:  Last year the Vikes were 11-0 in one-score games; this year they have already lost 5 one-score games.   The football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away.  The fact that the Vikes turned the ball over 3 times in the game did not help their cause even a little bit.  The Broncos’ problems in the red zone continued to be on display here; they got to the red zone 5 times and scored only 1 TD.  Nevertheless, the Broncos have now won 4 in a row with is the longest winning streak in the league as of this morning.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are no teams on a BYE Week; from Thursday through Monday, there will be a full slate of 16 NFL games.

Be sure to notice the Total Lines for games this week.  There are four games this week where the Total Line is less than 36.5 points and none of the games is above 48.5 points.

(Thurs early PM) Packers at Lions – 7.5 (46.5):  The Lions have a strong running attack and the Packers’ run defense is not very good.  I like the Lions to win the game, but I do not trust them enough to lay a full TD plus the half-point hook.  A Packers’ loss here would put them 5 games behind the Lions in the NFC North race with only 6 games left to play which translates to “out of it”.

(Thurs late PM) Commanders at Cowboys – 12.5 (48):  The spread opened with the Cowboys only a 9.5-point favorite, but the line has been climbing quickly early in the week.  One Internet sportsbook has the line at 13.5 points indicating to me that there is not a lot of “Commanders money” coming in.  This game will go one of two ways:

1. The Commanders are not good and the Cowboys feast on bad teams and punish them.  The Cowboys have been routing teams at home this year; they are 4-0 at Jerry-world and have won all 4 of those games by 20 points or more.  Outcome #1 would be a Cowboys’ victory by about 30 points.
2. The Commanders play better against good teams than bad teams and the Cowboys are a good team.  The Commanders’ coaches and players have been savaged for a week about the loss to the Giants last week and could come out of the locker room “on a mission”.  Outcome #2 would be a game decided by a field goal by either team as time expires.

You make the call …

(Thurs Nite) Niners – 6.5 at Seahawks (43.5):  This spread opened at 3.5 points.  Geno Smith took a shot to his throwing arm in last week’s game against the Rams; that jump in the spread makes me think the result of that blow is more than a bruise.  If Smith is ineffective or cannot go at all, the Seahawks will trot out Drew Lock for this game.  Good luck with that.  I like the Niners here on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri afternoon) Dolphins – 9 at Jets (41):  The spread opened at 6 points and jumped as soon as Tim Boyle was named as the Jets’ starting QB.  One sportsbook already has the line at 10.5 points meaning that number is much more likely to go up than down.  There is no way I would make a real wager on a team like Jets in the condition they are in, but before you pile on the Dolphins remember that the Jets’ defense is very good, and they were embarrassed last week by the Bills.  Moreover, the Dolphins are much better at home than they are on the road.  This is a game to avoid at the betting window.

Jags – 1 at Texans (47.5):  The Texans beat the Jags in Jax earlier this year; a season sweep would assure the Texans of any tiebreaker that might come into play regarding the playoffs.  Moreover, a Texans’ win here would put them in first place thanks to that tiebreaker in the AFC South Division.  In terms of trends, Trevor Lawrence is only 1-4 against the Texans in his career.

Bucs at Colts – 2.5 (43.5):  The Colts had a BYE Week last week and this is a second straight road game for the Bucs.  Both teams need this game to keep pace in their Division races.

Pats – 3 at Giants (34):  This game was my runner-up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The teams arrive at the kickoff with a combined record of 5-16.  Neither team scores points; the Pats average 14.1 points per game; the Giants – – despite their outburst last week against the Commanders – – average 13.5 points per game.  No wonder the Total Line is 34 points,

Panthers at Titans – 3.5 (36.5):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Panthers are awful; the Titans are not quite as bad.  Here is how bad the Titans’ OL is this year:

• Derrick Henry is only averaging 66.3 yards per game rushing.
• Last year was considered a ‘down-year” for Henry when he averaged 96.1 yards per game.

Give thanks if you are in a part of the country where this game will not be shown in your viewing area.

Steelers – 1 at Bengals (34.5):  The Bengals were 3-point favorites until the news that Joe Burrow is done for the year hit the streets.  At the moment, you can find this line anywhere from “pick ‘em” to Steelers minus-2.5.  The Bengals will play a question mark at QB; the Steelers will have question marks at offensive coordinator and at play-caller (see above).  You think I am going to make a pick in a game like that?

Saints at Falcons “pick ‘em” (42): Hard to believe, but this game actually is an important one because the Saints lead the NFC South with a 5-5 record and the Falcons are only 1 game back.  That being said, I am really not that interested in seeing these two teams go at it…

Rams at Cards – 1 (44.5):  The spread started out at Rams minus-2 points but shifted to this number early in the week.  Kyler Murray has played well in his two starts after injury rehab and the Rams’ defense is not what it was a couple of years ago.  I am tempted to take the Cards but will resist …

Browns at Broncos – 1.5 (35):  The spread opened with the Browns as 2-point favorites, but money flows have changed the favorite.  Dorian Thompson-Robinson played very well last week in his first start; this will be his first road start and Denver is not an easy place for a rookie QB to play.  Buti think the Browns’ defense will be the deciding factor here and it will be motivated because as of now the Browns would be in the playoffs – – and that is something they want to have continue to be the case.  I expect a low scoring game but rather than take the game to stay UNDER, I will take the Browns plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bills at Eagles – 3 (48.5):  This is clearly the Game of the Week.  The Bills are only 1-3 on the road this year and the Eagles are 4-0 at home.  Clearly, that favors the Eagles in this game.  By the same token, the Eagles could be in for a significant letdown after beating the Chiefs last week and then looking ahead to games against the Niners and Cowboys in the next two weeks.  This is a must-win for the Bills because a loss here would be their 6^th loss of the season already with the next two games on the schedule being the Chiefs and Cowboys.

Chiefs – 9 at Raiders (42):  The Chiefs need to figure out how to get their offense back on track; the Raiders have played better since their coaching change.

(Sun Nite) Ravens – 3.5 at Chargers (48):  I know the Chargers keep games close (see above), but I think they are overmatched here against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ defense.  I like the Ravens to win comfortably here; I’ll take them and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Bears at Vikes – 3 (43):  The Vikes need this game to keep their playoff march in stride.  The Bears are basically playing out the string to see what sort of draft pick they will get come April.  The Vikes are clearly the better team top-to-bottom – – but I am not quite fully on-board the Josh Dobbs bandwagon…

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Missouri – 7.5 over Arkansas
• Iowa +2.5 against Nebraska
• Niners – 6.5 over Seahawks
• Browns +1.5 against Broncos
• Ravens – 3.5 over Chargers.

            And for fun, here is a Money Line Parlay:

• Lions @ moinus-300
• Niners @ minus-310
• Dolphins @ minus-420   $100 wager to win $118.

Finally, some words from Erk Russell – – former head football coach at Georgia Southern:

“At Georgia Southern, we don’t cheat.  That costs money, and we don’t have any.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………