Football Friday 1/4/19

Today is the first Friday of the New Year and I shall acknowledge that fact with the first Football Friday of the New Year.  And so, without further ado…

College Football Commentary:

Bob Molinaro made an important – and interesting – observation in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot this week

“Bottom line: Secondary market ticket prices for Monday’s title game in Santa Clara, Calif., are plummeting. There may even be a few empty seats at Levi’s Stadium when Alabama and Clemson take the field. With two Southern teams playing out West, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. Many partisans just can’t afford the trek. The relative lack of interest in tickets among the general public is a reminder that college football passions burn hottest in the South. Alabama and Clemson meeting for the fourth year in a row sends the same signal.”

The important part of that comment is the phrase “… college football passions burn hottest in the South.”  That is not a knock on the sport; it is simply a recognition of reality.  If the Alabama/Clemson game were to be played in Atlanta or Charlotte or New Orleans – or even Miami – there would not be an empty seat in the stadium and there would be as many standing room tickets sold as the local fire marshal would allow.

College Football Championship Game:

(Mon. Nite) Clemson vs Alabama – 5 (59.5) Game is in Santa Clara, CA:  The spread opened at 7 points and the Total Line opened at 62.5 points.  Early money went to Clemson and the UNDER but the line has been steady for about the last 48 hours.  If Alabama wins here, it would be the 6^th national championship for that team under the tutelage of Nick Saban.  Bear Bryant also won 6 national championships at Alabama and Bryant is still a revered figure in that part of the world 35 years after his death.  [Aside:  If Alabama wins, it will be Nick Saban’s 7^th overall national championship; he also won one at LSU about 15 years ago.]  Both teams will face the best defense they have seen all year.  I expect a close game, so I’ll take Clemson plus the points.  I would prefer not to pick the Total Line here.  I am confident that this will not be a “Big-12 kind of game” where the loser might score in the high-forties.  Other than that…

NFL Commentary:

There has been a line of thinking out there for the past several years that football is a sport on the wane and that the NFL lost a lot of popularity from the way it treated Colin Kaepernick.  I have no interest in worrying about that narrative because I have thought that most of the rhetoric was overblown to begin with.  Now there is some interesting data for the “football nay-sayers” to explain.

Sportsmediawatch.com had a report this week containing the following information:

1. Regarding television audiences in the US, 80% of the top-rated sports programs in 2018 were NFL games.  [Remember, 2018 also had the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup.]
2. The Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl game had fewer viewers in 2018 than in 2017 but it still drew 103.4 million viewers.  The next highest sports program – also an NFL playoff game – had only 44.1 million viewers.
3. The top 7 TV audiences were for NFL games; the program in 8^th place was the Alabama/Georgia CFP Championship Game.
4. Overall, NFL ratings were up 5% in 2018 as compared to 2017.  Football is not dead.

If you want to browse through the data to find out where a specific event may have been on the TV ratings list, here is a link to the report:

NFL Games:

There are 4 games this weekend as the top two seeds in both conferences get a BYE Week to rest up and prepare to host games next weekend.

(Sat 4:30PM EST) Indy at Houston – 1 (48): Way back at the start of this season, I said that the Colts’ fortunes would depend on the health of Andrew Luck’s shoulder.  Indeed they have, and his shoulder is just fine.  I would imagine that Andrew Luck and JJ Watt would be the top contenders for Comeback Player of the Year and they will be going at one another in this game.  These two teams are about as evenly matched as that 1-point spread would indicate.  Consider:

• Texans are 11-5 – – Colts are 10-6.
• Both teams were 6-2 at home
• Both teams were 4-2 in the AFC South Division
• Texans point differential is +86 – – Colts’ point differential is +89.
• Texans’ defense is ranked 12^th in the NFL – – Colts’ defense is ranked 11^th in the NFL
• Texans are 11-2 in their last 13 games – – Colts are 10-1 in their last 11 games.

Call this a Two Peas In A Pod Game…

The biggest difference here is the way the teams protect the QB.  The Colts’ OL has been very good this year; Andrew Luck has not been beaten within an inch of his life.  On the other hand, the Texans’ OL has given up 62 sacks and Deshaun Watson has avoided plenty of other sacks just by running for his life.  Another interesting thing to watch for in this game is how much help DeAndre Hopkins gets from the rest of the Texans’ WR corps that has seen two good wideouts go down to injury this season.  If one of the Texans’ ‘new guys” does not make the Colts’ secondary acknowledge the presence, Hopkins will be double-teamed all day.  Purely a venue call here; I’ll take the Texans and lay the point.

Here is a trend that I will be going against with that pick:

• Road team is 7-1-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

(Sat 8:15PM EST) Seattle at Dallas – 2.5 (43):  The spread opened the week at 1-point and has risen slowly but steadily all week long.  Both teams win using the same formula.  When they run the ball successfully and play solid defense, they win.  The Cowboys have the better running back in Ezekiel Elliott; the Seahawks have the better QB in Russell Wilson.  The Seahawks beat the Cowboys earlier this year but that was before the Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper and presented something more than a token passing threat.  Just a hunch, but I like the Seahawks plus the points here – – even though the Cowboys are very good at home (7-1 this year) and the Seahawks are mediocre on the road (4-4 this year).

Here are two conflicting trends at work for the Cowboys:

• Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games.
• Cowboys are 3-11 against the spread in their last 11 playoff games.

(Sun 1:00 PM EST) Chargers at Baltimore – 3 (41.5):  The early start to this game is not optimal for the Chargers coming almost 3000 miles across 3 time zones to the kickoff.  On the other side of that balance however is the fact that the Chargers have been a better road team than a home team this year (7-1 on the road versus 5-3 at home).  These teams met two weeks ago in LA and the Ravens won that game holding Philip Rivers under 200 yards passing and intercepting him twice.  On offense, the Ravens used a power running game to control the clock and the tempo; I presume the Chargers’ coaches will have the team ready to counter that sort of offense.  The Ravens have the advantage on special teams.  I like the Ravens to win and cover here; I also like the game to stay UNDER.

Here are trends at work for this game:

• Chargers have gone UNDER in 20 of their last 28 games against AFC teams.
• Ravens are 6-1-1 to go UNDER in their last 8 playoff games.
• Ravens are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in January.

(Sun 4:30 PM EST) Philly at Chicago – 6.5 (41) The spread here opened at 4.5 points and has been slowly increasing as the week progressed.  The Eagles are the only team returning to the playoffs from last year who are playing in this wild-card weekend; all four of the teams with BYE Weeks were in the playoffs last year and they get a week off here.  I wrote the Eagles off earlier this year; I was wrong about that.  I did not think they could sweep the Rams, Texans and Skins in their final 3 games – – but they did.  The Bears’ defense leads the league in points allowed – only 17.7 points per game – and the Bears have not allowed more than 17 points in their last 4 games.  The Eagles’ defense has played well for the last month; they will need to contain the Bears’ run game and then try to force Mitchell Trubisky to beat them through the air.  If the Bears can run the ball, the Bears will win the game comfortably.  The Eagles have covered in 4 of their last 5 games and there is always the possibility of some more “Nick Foles Magic”.  I’ll take the Eagles plus the points.

Here are opposing trends for this game:

• Eagles are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 playoff games on the road
• Bears are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the favorite.

Finally, here is a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Fruitcake:  A gift given to you last Christmas by people who shrewdly anticipated your needing a doorstop this Christmas.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………