Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 11/6/16

Last week was a mythically profitable week for NFL Mythical Picks. I made 13 selections and the record for the week was 7-5-1. The season record remains solidly in the mythically profitable zone at 75-44-3.

The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol did precisely what you would expect from a coin flip. There were two games delegated to the coin and the coin’s record was 1-1-0. For the year, the coin’s record stands at 8-7-0.

The Best Picks from last week were:

The Worst Picks from last week were:

Here is an important reminder. No one should mistake anything written here as authoritative or insightful when it comes to wagering on NFL games this weekend or any other weekend. Notwithstanding successful results for the first 8 weeks of this NFL season, you would have to be very dumb to allow any information here be part of any decision you might make regarding any real wager on a real NFL game involving real money. Here is how dumb you would have to be:

You probably think a waxing moon has something to do with hair removal.

General Comments:

I mentioned in a rant earlier this week that Terrell Owens declared himself “available” to the Philly Eagles as an answer to their shortcomings at the WR position. As if on cue, the Eagles’ WR corps took a hit about 36 hours after Owens’ declaration when Josh Huff was pulled over for speeding on the Walt Whitman Bridge heading to New Jersey. That traffic stop escalated quickly as officers arrested Huff on charges of:

Huff is more of a returner for the Eagles than a WR but when pressed into action on offense that is where he plays. Earlier this year during the Eagles’ BYE Week a linebacker was arrested for carrying a loaded gun in Miami Airport causing defensive coordinator to say that if you do enough dumbass things people will label you a dumbass.

As I look at the list of charges above – and recognizing the presumption of innocence – I lean toward the conclusion that Josh Huff is a dumbass. He is not a sufficiently big dumbass nor a sufficiently important cog in the Eagles’ offensive machinery for them to consider “The T.O. Option” for even a millisecond. But I really suspect that Josh Huff is a dumbass…

In mid-week, Norv Turner resigned as the offensive coordinator of the Vikes. He said this was his decision alone; head coach Mike Zimmer said that he did not know about this until someone informed him of the move. The story is that Turner was not fired; my skepticism gene tells me that the story here does not ring true, but I will go along with it for now.

The Vikings’ offense has not been good all year long; the loss of starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater the week before the season started and the loss of RB Adrian Peterson meant that the offense was going to have some rough patches through the year. The inept play of the Vikes’ OL was probably not expected but it has been on display for much of the season to date. Let me say this clearly:

None of those circumstances/shortcomings are the fault of Norv Turner or any other coach on the Vikes’ staff.

The offense was supposed to have Adrian Peterson as the centerpiece of an offense that would make defenses play the run thereby setting up a series of gambits in the passing game for the team to exploit. The plainly evident fact for the Vikes is that handing the ball off to a healthy Adrian Peterson is significantly different from handing the ball off to a healthy Matt Asiata. Defensive coaches on opposing teams get paid to notice that difference – and they have.

The Vikings’ running game – supposedly a foundation piece for the Vikings’ offense – has produced only 71.9 yards per game for the first 7 games. That is next-to-last in the NFL; only the Giants’ run game is less productive at 70.3 yards per game. With no serious run threat, teams have come after QB Sam Bradford. The OL – as mentioned above – has been sub-standard to be polite and Bradford is certainly not an escape artist at the QB position. That is why the Vikes have scored only 10 points in each of their last 2 games. Only defenses that are truly great – like the Steel Curtain defenses or the Ravens’ defenses in the early part of this millennium – can win games by holding opponents to single digits on a regular basis.

The Vikes’ fortunes for this year will be determined by the ability of the OL to elevate its performance level. Norv Turner was not holding the OL back nor was he in a position to make it better.

Last week, the Vikes lost on MNF to the Bears 20-10. As was the case the week before when the Vikes lost to the Eagles 21-10, a late and meaningless TD made the score look better than it really was. In this game, the lack of offensive production might cause folks to overlook the fact that the defense did not play all that well either. The Bears gained 402 yards on offense for the game including 158 yards rushing and a 50% conversion rate on third-down situations.

The Vikings have 5 wins so far. Looking at their schedule, there are plenty of winnable games ahead of them; they have a path to the playoffs if they can find a way to run the ball a bit so that they can protect Sam Bradford. That – and a solid defense – is the key to their future success.

Don’t look now but the best record in the NFC belongs to the Dallas Cowboys at 6-1. The Cowboys beat the Eagles in OT last Sunday night in a game that was worth staying up to watch. I watched the World Series game live and then went to see this game on DVR – sans commercial interruptions – until the wee hours of Monday morning. Before the game and to a small extent during the game, there mentions that Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz were establishing a rivalry that could potentially be the successor to the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning rivalry games. Let me say this about that:

These two rookies are playing VERY well and both teams should be ecstatic about their performances. Nonetheless, we are only talking about half a season here. If such a rivalry develops, it will be very obvious. If such a rivalry is manufactured, that too will be very obvious.

The week began with a Thursday night game between the Titans and the Jags. The game was a blowout and it featured two teams that aspire to mediocrity. Some people went out of their way to criticize the NFL schedule mavens for putting this game on a national telecast and linked that “scheduling blunder” to the declining ratings for NFL games this year. Ignoring the obvious logical flaw that putting this game on national TV in Week 8 was related in any way to declining ratings in Weeks 1-7, please consider that the NFL scheduling mavens did a very smart thing putting this game where they did.

National telecasts include Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night and late Sunday afternoon games.

Even if the Jags and the Titans were good teams – which they are not – they would not command a large national following.

Ergo, having the Titans/Jags play one another on a national telecast means that the TV scheduling obligation is satisfied in one game instead of two games where these teams will compete with two other opponents.

The Titans led this game 27-0 at halftime and that score reflected the state of play in the game. On his way to the locker room at halftime, Jags’ coach, Gus Bradley, said that the team needed to make adjustments and to correct mistakes. I am sure glad the sideline reporter got that information for me; I would never have guessed. In actuality, here is what the Jags needed to do at halftime:

Or … would that violate the NFL’s restrictions on PEDs? Hmmm…

Dwight Perry had this comment in the Seattle Times about the Titans/Jags game being available only on NFL Network:

“This is an outrage, said absolutely nobody.”

The Bengals and the Skins played to a 27-27 tie in London last week. I said that the NFL owed the fans in the UK a decent game given the two stinkers that preceded this one for the 2016 season. The fans did get a good game here. Lots of folks in the US complained about the tie game and – since there was a tie game the week before last – some took that opportunity to cry for a change of the rules. There is a three-legged stool that needs to be adjusted here; for those who want the rule changed, I want to hear a proposal that does ALL THREE of these things while assuring a winner in every game:

2. Do not change the rules and determine a winner by something other than “football”. Soccer and hockey determine winners with penalty kicks/shots which are rare occurrences in real games. Do not turn an NFL game tied at the end of regulation time into a 50-yard field goal contest. That is the stuff of Punt, Pass and Kick not an NFL game. [Aside: That is a shortcoming of the college OT rules. In college, the kickoff and the punt are removed from the game in OT.]

3. Be sure each team gets the ball at least once so that a coin toss does not have an inordinate weight in the outcome of the game.

I have yet to hear an idea that encompasses all three of those principles. I am sure there is such a proposal out there and when I hear it, I may then support it as a potential agenda item for the NFL Rules Committee. Until then, the current rules are just fine and tie games are not the end of Western Civilization as we know it.

I do have to comment about the final play in the Bengals/Skins game. The Skins had the ball with only a couple of seconds on the clock and only a Hail Mary pass would do anything for them; a winning field goal was out of the question unless there is a little-known provision in the rules that would have allowed a football-shooting cannon on the field. The Skins executed a sacrilegious Hail Mary pass; every Catholic praying the rosary at the time felt a twinge in the shoulder as that pass was in the air. It had two major deficiencies:

2. It was 3 yards out of bounds when it got to the 15-yardline.

The Raiders beat the Bucs 30-24 in a third OT game last week. David Carr threw for 513 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs in the game. Looking at those stats one might wonder how the Raiders only managed to score 30 points and keep the game close. Here is the answer:

Actually, the Raiders committed 27 penalties in the game but three were declined and the fourth was an “offsetting penalties” situation.

Let me put that record of 23 penalties in perspective here. Three times in NFL history, a team has committed 22 penalties in a game. One was a Niners/Bills game in 1998. The other two games both took place in 1944 (Brooklyn/Green Bay in September 1944 and Chicago/Philly in October 1944). That record has been there for a LONG time.

Also, consider:

Granted, these were both “only” 12-game seasons but the 1937 Detroit Lions only committed 19 penalties in those 12 games and the 1935 Boston Skins only committed 21 penalties in 12 games.

The Panthers beat the Cards 30-20. On the Cards’ first possession, the officials ruled that Carson Palmer fumbled a ball that was picked up by the Panthers and returned for a TD. Looking at the replay, it sure looked to me as if that was an incomplete pass but the officials let the call stand. At that moment, the air went out of the Cards’ balloon; they trailed 24-0 in the second half; they tried to rally but it was way too little and way too late. Carson Palmer was sacked 8 times in the game.

The Saints beat the Seahawks 25-20. The Seahawks ran for only 74 yards in this game and the Saints had been giving up 117 yards per game at kick off time. The Seahawks share a “problem” with the Vikes as mentioned above. Both offensive lines are playing poorly and it shows. Like the Vikes’ the Seahawks have an excellent defense and rely on it to win games. Last week Drew Brees sliced and diced the Seahawks’ defense and the Saints scored on 6 consecutive possessions.

The Texans beat the Lions 20-13. The Lions held the Texans to only 269 yards on offense and that usually indicates that the Lions should win the game. However, last week, the Lions’ offense slept through the alarm and never got the hotel wake-up call. Brock Osweiler led the Texans to a win with a ho-hum stat line – – 20 for 29 for 186 yards and 1 TD. The Texans are 5-0 at home and 0-3 on the road so far this year.

The Chiefs beat the Colts 30-14. When Alex Smith had to leave the game with what may or may not have been a concussion, the Chiefs turned to Nick Foles. By the way, Chiefs’ RB, Spencer Ware, also left the game with a concussion. The Colts’ less-than-mediocre defense proved no problem for the backup QB; Foles threw for 223 yards and 2 TDs while completing 73% of his passes. Colts’ QB, Andrew Luck, was sacked 6 times in the game and spent a lot of time on other plays running for his life. Luck has been sacked 31 times in 8 games this year.

The Pats beat the Bills 41-25. Once again a late and meaningless TD made this game appear closer than it was. Tom Brady had a ho-hum game – – for Tom Brady that is. He threw for 315 yards and 4 TDs; just another day at the office. The Bills played without LeSean McCoy and that hampered their run game significantly. However, that problem does not explain the simple fact that the Bills’ DBs could not cover the Pats’ WRs all day long. In terms of offensive efficiency, consider this:

I did not say Tom Brady has not thrown an INT; I said that the team – they have played 3 QBs this year – has not thrown an INT so far.

At one point in the game, a fan threw a dildo onto the field. The camera immediately focused elsewhere as the “offending member” was removed from view. LeGarrette Blount explained the removal process after the game:

“They got that thing kicked off the field quick. Nobody was touching that. You don’t know where that’s been.”

I have a question about this incident. The NFL has a search policy and requires fans to have things in clear plastic bags for a thorough inspection as fans enter the stadium. So, how did this “foreign object” get past the eagle-eyes on inspection watch? Perhaps LeGarrette Blount was correct in his assessment that you don’t know where it had been …

The Jets beat the Browns 31-28 and looking at the Browns’ schedule from here on out it may be time to consider that the Browns may not win a game this year. The Browns led in the second half but allowed the Jets to score on their first 3 possessions of the second half to seal the defeat. Compare these two halves of play for Ryan Fitzpatrick:

1st half:

2nd half: 13 for 20 for 198 yards

I mentioned the Browns’ schedule for the rest of the year; here it is:

The Browns will be underdogs in all of these games; if they win a game it will be an upset.

The Falcons beat the Packers 33-32. The Packers played without Clay Matthews on defense and without enough players on offense to play a basketball game. To give you an idea of the Packers’ offensive problems, Aaron Rodgers was the leading rusher for the team in this game. The fact that the Packers could score 32 points here is an indictment of the Falcons’ defense. Matt Ryan had a great day – 28 for 35 for 288 yards and 3 TDs.

The Broncos beat the Chargers 27-19. Melvyn Gordon had a solid game (111 yards on 23 carries) but in the 4th quarter when the Chargers had the ball on the Broncos’ 2-yardline trailing 27-19, the Chargers did not give him the ball even one time and turned the ball over on downs. I am sure there is a reason for that but I doubt it is a good reason. The stat sheet says that Philip Rivers threw 3 INTs; in fact, two of the three were tipped by Chargers receivers into the hands of a defender.

The Games:

There are six teams on a Bye Week:

Chicago can bask in the glory of its win over Minnesota last week.

Cincy can readjust it body clock to Eastern Time after a London visit.

Houston will still lead the AFC South next week.

New England can get some R&R with a comfortable lead in the AFC East

Washington will figure out what to do without Trent Williams for 4 games.

(Thurs Nite) Atlanta – 3.5 at Tampa (51): In the game against the Packers last week, All-World WR, Julio Jones suffered an ankle injury. I understand the “next man up” mentality of NFL teams, but the Falcons do not have anyone who will stand up and even offer a reasonable facsimile of Julio Jones if he cannot play at anything close to his normal level. The Bucs are 0-3 at home this year and 3-1 on the road this year. I like the Falcons here to win and cover.

Jax at KC – 7 (44): I was ever so wrong about the Jags prospects coming into this season. I have seen parts of their games this year and then saw them stink out the joint against the Titans last week. That team is a mess and will have trouble against a solid KC defense. The Chiefs are undefeated at home this year. Here are a couple of trends that are headed in opposite directions:

This is Week 9 and this game is on grass.

I’ll take the Chiefs at home and lay the points.

Detroit at Minnesota – 6 (41): The Lions have the 12th ranked defense in the NFC; it is not a great unit despite its showing last week (see above). However, the Vikes’ offense is sputtering for the reasons outlined above; in the NFC, only the Niners put up less total offense per game than the Vikes. Matthew Stafford and his Lions’ offensive buddies laid a giant egg last week and ought to do better this week even though they are up against a better defense here. The Vikes have shown that their new home field provides them a nice home-field advantage and the Lions are generally not a great road team. However, purely on a hunch, I’ll take the Lions with the points here.

Philly at Giants – 2.5 (43): Very simple here … I think this will be a low scoring game and I prefer to take points in low scoring games. Ergo, I’ll take the Eagles plus the points here.

Dallas – 7 at Cleveland (48.5): The Cowboys have the best record in the NFC and have won 6 games in a row – the longest extant win streak in the NFL. I do not believe the Browns can keep the Cowboys’ running game in check and that makes the Cowboys’ passing attack all the better. I like the Cowboys to win and cover even on the road. There are two trends that give me a warm feeling about that Mythical Pick:

This game is on grass.

Jets at Miami – 4 (44): This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. If the Jets’ defense can keep Jay Ajayi from running wild this week, that will force the Dolphins to put the ball in Ryan Tannehill’s hands. That would be a successful outcome for the Jets’ defense. On the other side of the ball, the Jets had a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance on offense last week against the Browns. If the offense plays as poorly as it played for half the game last week, the Jets are toast; if the offense plays as efficiently as did for half the game last week, the Jets will be OK. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol game and the coin says to take the Jets plus the points. Why not? Remember, these are mythical picks …

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – 2.5 (43.5): The Ravens had last week off. Presumably they sent out a search party to try and find a running game. The Steelers also had last week off. What they need most to find is a way for Ben Roethlisberger’s knee to heal very quickly in order to minimize the number of games they have to play with Landry Jones at QB. The Ravens have lost 4 games in a row’ but with a win here, they will be tied for first in the AFC North. The Ravens and Steelers usually play close games; the Ravens have only played close games this season with every one being decided by a margin of a single score. I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Steelers plus the points.

New Orleans – 3.5 at SF (52): The Niners had last week off but somehow I doubt they were able to teach either Blaine Gabbert of Colin Kaepernick how to play QB in that period of time. The Saints have won 2 of their last 3 games against the Panthers, Chiefs and Seahawks. This is a much softer opponent. These are the two worst defensive units in the NFC. However, the main separation is on the offensive side of the ball. The Saints gain 415 yards per game; the Niners gain 290 yards per game. The Saints are not a good road team or a good outdoors team but they have the advantage here. I’ll take the Saints and lay the points. History is on my side here over the last decade or so:

Carolina – 3 at LA (45.5): I see this game as a defensive/field position game. The Panthers have not own on the road yet this year but the Rams are a meager 1-2 at home. I like this game to stay UNDER.

Indy at Green Bay – 7.5 (54): The Packers need a decent RB desperately. Two weeks ago, they traded to acquire Knile Davis from the Chiefs. After a week, the Packers cut Davis.

[Aside: The Jets, who also need a RB, then signed Davis this week and reportedly cut him only hours after the signing. Strange business here …]

Somehow, the Packers scored 32 points last week with the offense resembling a M*A*S*H unit. If they do that again, they will win this game easily. I like the Packers to win and cover at home.

Tennessee at San Diego – 4 (47): This will be an interesting matchup. The Titans live to run the ball with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Meanwhile the Chargers defense only allows 86 yards per game rushing – one of only 4 teams in the AFC to allow fewer than 100 yards per game. Tennessee also has a stout run defense so this game will probably be decided in the passing game. That being the case, I have to side with Philip Rivers over Marcus Mariota. I’ll take the Chargers and lay the points.

(Sun Nite) Denver at Oakland “pick ‘em” (44): The spread opened the week with the Broncos as a 2.5-point favorite but has been at this level for the last couple of days. This is probably the Game of the Week; the winner will be in first place in the AFC West by a game and will hold – for now – the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Raiders spent 10 days in Florida choosing not to fly there on consecutive weeks to play the Jags and the Bucs. The Raiders are back home – – but that is where both of their losses for the year happened. I think the Broncos’ offense gets well against a not-good-at-all Raiders’ defense this week. I’ll take the Broncos to win this game.

(Mon Nite) Buffalo at Seattle – 7 (44): The schedule mavens did the Bills no favors here. Last week they had to fact the Pats in a “revenge game” for the Pats. This week, they take a long flight to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that needs this game to maintain some distance atop the NFC West after a loss to the Saints last week. The Bills list LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee as “questionable” for this game; it neither can go, that leaves the running game up to Reggie Bush and Jonathan Williams. That won’t cut it against a Seahawks defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards allowed per game and has allowed on 109 points in 7 games this year. I’ll take the Seahawks at home and lay the points.

Finally, I know that it is early to do Christmas shopping but Dwight Perry ran across this item and wrote about it in the Seattle Times. Just in case you are looking for shopping ideas …

“Stumped to find a holiday gift for that hard-to-please football fanatic?

“Neiman Marcus is offering a one-day QB clinic for four with 49ers Hall of Famer Joe Montana. They’ll even throw in an autographed football and have your picture taken with him.

“And it’s all yours — for just $65,000.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………