Mythical Picks – NCAA – Weekend of 11/14/15

Last week’s Mythical Picks were a marvelous model of mediocrity. The record for the week was 9-10-1 bringing the season record to 76-77-5. If I post a “great week” (say something like 13-5-0) in the next two weeks, I will be well over .500 at the end of the year because it seems as if all I do in the normal weeks is flirt around the level of breaking even. On the other hand, if I have a “disastrous week” …

The “Best Pick” last week was taking Utah + 2 points and having Utah win the game by 11 points.

The “Worst Pick” last week was taking Clemson – 10.5 points and seeing them win by only 10 points. Arggghhh…

No one should use anything herein as the basis for making an actual wager on an actual college football game this weekend where actual money is involved in the wager. Anyone doing that would be this stupid:

You would be frustrated that you could not cheer up a blue whale.

General comments:

The Linfield College Wildcats destroyed the University of Puget Sound last week. Their opponent arrived with a 4-1 record in conference and a stingy defense. None of that mattered; Linfield won the game 72-3 elevating the Wildcats to 8-0 for the season. The record only tells part of the story about Linfield’s dominance this year.

The offense has only scored less than 40 points in one game.

The cumulative score the year is:

Linfield:

Opponents:

This week, the Wildcats finish their “regular season” with a trip to Puyallup, WA to face Pacific Lutheran. The Lutes bring a 2-6 record to the game. A win for the Wildcats would give them an undefeated season, a conference championship and a certain invitation to participate in the NCAA Division III national football playoff. Go Wildcats!

Frank Beamer announced last week that he will step down as the head coach at VA Tech where he has built that program from virtual obscurity to a program that gained a bit of national recognition. Naturally, the speculation about his successor began about 30 nanoseconds after the announcement of his retirement and not a lot of that speculation even rises to the level of interesting. Bob Molinaro had a cogent observation in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot on the subject:

“FUTUREWATCH: Frank Beamer’s replacement will be taking over a good job, not a great one. The Hokies, after all, are 26-22 the last four years. But among other things that make this a manageable rebuilding project is Tech’s position in the Coastal Division, the easier division in the Power 5’s weakest conference. Not having to compete against Clemson and Florida State each year is incentive for even the best candidate.”

Last week was not kind to several previously undefeated teams. Michigan State should probably feel the worst of all the teams tasting defeat for the first time because they were totally hosed by yet another atrocious call by game officials. I heard the explanation by the officials for the call; I saw the replay; here is my only conclusion:

Ray Charles must have beamed down from the spirit world and took over that official’s body for about 5 critical seconds. How he did not see what happened on the play when it was in plain sight is difficult to explain any other way.

Indeed, Michigan State got hosed. Nonetheless, Michigan State deserves a small measure of opprobrium here. Nebraska is not a good team and if Michigan State were truly a very good team, they would not have had Nebraska within striking distance at the end of the game. The Michigan State defense gave up the game-winning TD on the blown call; however it had also given up another TD in the final 2 minutes of the game. That game was a giant goat rodeo…

That bad call along with Michigan State’s allowing Nebraska to be within shouting distance at the end of the game took a lot of the luster off the upcoming Ohio State/Michigan State game. It may still be a good game and an interesting contest; however, it would have been a much bigger deal if both teams were undefeated at the kickoff.

LSU had been undefeated and lost to Alabama. This was not a fluke; Alabama simply was the better team on the field for just about the entire game.

[Aside: The Selection Committee looks pretty smart about now after they put Alabama at #4 last week ahead of a bunch of undefeated teams. All ‘Bama did was beat the team they had put at #2.]

Alabama had 434 yards of offense; LSU only managed 182. Leonard Fournette – who is the best RB I have seen play this year and who often gains more than 182 yards in a game by himself – carried the ball 19 times for a total of 31 yards. The Alabama Front 7 on defense is REALLY good. Derrick Henry carried the ball 38 times for Alabama and gained 210 yards. I mention that here because I want to say that I think Henry is an excellent RB who will play well for an NFL team very soon and that I still think Fournette is the better RB.

TCU lost to Oklahoma State; there had to be an undefeated team that lost for the first time here and the reason it was TCU is that their star QB, Trevone Boykin, had a really bad day. He threw 4 INTs. Rather than focus on TCU’s loss, perhaps the message here should be that Oklahoma State may be a really good team and might be the class of the Big 12. Consider:

Last week, they held TCU to only 29 points; two weeks ago, they scored 70 points against Texas Tech. Both offense and defense seem capable of big games.

Having said that, before I proclaim that Oklahoma State is the team that has been overlooked by all the commentators and that they will carry the banner of the Big 12 to the College Football Championship tournament, let me say that the schedule from here on out for the Cowboys is not easy:

Vs Baylor: Baylor is undefeated at the moment; this game should be a shoot-out.

Vs Oklahoma: OU has only 1 loss; they play Baylor this week; rivalry game.

I agree that Oklahoma State has not gotten the publicity that other teams with similar records have gotten. Therefore, let me give you some stats for the Cowboys:

They rank 7th in the country in scoring; they average 44.6 points per game

They rank 59th in the country in total defense; they give up 391 yards per game

They rank 48th in the country in scoring defense; they allow 23.8 points per game

Another undefeated team that took gas last week was Memphis. They lost to Navy 45-20 and they gave up 374 yards rushing to the Middies. In case you had not noticed, Navy is now 7-1 for the season and their only loss was to Notre Dame in South Bend. Navy has 4 games left and they should be favored in 3 of them. Navy should get a nice bowl invitation this year.

Toledo also entered last week with an unblemished record hosting a Northern Illinois team that had already lost 3 games this year. Toledo led after 3 quarters by a score of 24-19 but Northern Illinois dominated the 4th quarter to win the game 32-27.

UNC rolled over Duke 66-31 last week. You may not have noticed but UNC now carries an 8-1 record and that loss looks more astonishing as every week goes by. UNC lost the opening game of the season to South Carolina and I think it is fair to say that South Carolina is not a particularly good team this year. Marquise Williams threw for 404 yards and 3 TDs against Duke – – and he did that in the first half. Unless something catastrophic happens, the ACC Championship Game will be UNC versus Clemson.

Clemson looks like the Atlantic Division winner after beating Florida State 23-13 last week. The game was tied at 13 after 3 quarters and Clemson pulled away to win in the 4th quarter. The game was not really as close as the score might indicate:

Clemson 7-17 on 3rd down; Florida State 2-12 on 3rd down.

Clemson 3 penalties for 32 yards; Florida State 9 penalties for 65 yards.

Florida beat Vandy 9-7 last week and that makes Florida the SEC East Champion and one of the participants in the SEC Championship Game; at the moment, it looks as if they will play Alabama for the conference championship. The Gators trailed 7-6 at the end of the 3rd quarter against Vandy and won the game without scoring a TD. Florida is 8-1 for the season; the only loss was to LSU in Baton Rouge; there is no shame in losing to LSU there. The Florida defense is really good. Florida has held 5 SEC opponents to 10 points or less in games this year. In fact, Florida is 4th in the country in scoring defense allowing only 14.6 points per game this year.

Baylor has remained undefeated despite losing its starting QB to neck surgery earlier this year. Freshman Jarrett Stidham played very well last week against Kansas State throwing for 419 yards and 3 TDs. Looking ahead, Stidham and the rest of the Baylor squad is going to have to maintain their focus in the final games of the year. Here is what Baylor is looking at on the schedule:

As of this morning, only Texas has lost more than one game this year…

The Old Dominion Monarchs have some interesting player names on the roster this year:

Rashaad Coward

Blake LaRussa

Fellonte Misher

Mufu Talwo

Oshane Ximines

The Ponderosas:

Last week, we had 6 Ponderosa Games and the favorites covered in 4 of those games.

La Tech, Michigan, Oklahoma and Texas covered.

Ohio State and W. Kentucky did not cover.

The cumulative record for favorites covering in Ponderosa Games now stands at 32-38-1.

This week, we have 6 Ponderosa Games:

Clemson – 28 at Syracuse (57.5): This is a conference game not some form of pitty-pat scheduling. Nonetheless, it should be a rout.

Kansas at TCU – 45 (72): I could only find one Money Line posted for this game:

Wake Forest at Notre Dame – 26.5 (52): This spread opened at 28 points and dropped to this level almost immediately and then stayed at this level. If I were going to bet on this game – which I am not and I am not even making this a Mythical Pick – I would take the game to stay UNDER.

N. Texas at Tennessee – 41.5 (66.5): This win will make Tennessee bowl-eligible. It should make their fans very proud…

New Mexico at Boise St – 30.5 (57): A Mountain West Conference mismatch.

Wyoming at San Diego St. – 24.5 (51): Another Mountain West Conference mismatch.

The SHOE Teams:

Three of the underdogs in this week’s Ponderosa Games are under serious consideration for the SHOE Tournament this year. There is still time for teams to demonstrate significant ineptitude; therefore, it is only possible to identify the candidates for the 8 slots in that season-ending tournament. There is too much football left to play – games in which a team can lose by 8 TDS while giving up 600 yards – to say anyone is immune from inclusion. In alphabetical order:

Army:

E. Michigan:

Kansas:

La-Monroe:

Miami (Oh):

N. Texas:

SMU:

Tulane:

UCF:

UMass:

UT-San Antonio:

Wyoming:

By the way, Army and Tulane play each other this week and UMass takes on E. Michigan. If the SHOE Tournament were a real thing, those games might be meaningful…

Games of Interest:

UMass – 7 at E. Michigan (70): To give you an idea of how bad folks think E. Michigan is, UMass is a team with one win; they are on the road and they are a full TD favorite. Avert your eyes…

Michigan – 13.5 at Indiana (55.5): Purely a hunch here… Indiana needs to win 2 games to be bowl-eligible. That will not give them sufficient juice to beat Michigan but it might give them sufficient juice to keep it closer than 2 TDs. I’ll take Indiana plus the points.

Memphis at Houston – 7 (70.5): Memphis averages 547 yards per game on offense and Houston averages 525. Memphis gives up 437 yards per game while Houston only allows 368. I think offense dominates here so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

Ohio State – 16 at Illinois (55): Ohio State is a very good team but they are not blowing people out this year; they have been a Ponderosa favorite 5 times and have yet to cover. However, I think Illinois is simply outclassed here and Ohio State might just use this as the tune up for the rest of its schedule which will be Michigan State and Michigan. I’ll take Ohio State here to win and cover.

Tulane at Army – 2.5 (44): Another game in which you need to avert your eyes…

Temple – 2.5 at USF (44.5): Yes, Temple scored 60 points in a game last week but that was against SMU and if you look above you will see SMU on the SHOE list. These teams feature defense and not offense. I like this game to stay UNDER.

K-State at Texas Tech – 6 (71.5): Tech gives up 560 yards per game; only Kansas gives up more. On the other hand Tech gains 581 yards per game. Kansas State is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but against the matador defense that Tech puts on the field, State should surpass its average scoring for the season (27 points). I like this game to go OVER.

Kentucky at Vandy – 3.5 (40.5): Vandy averages 15 points per game. Kentucky averages 22. Both teams rely on defense. I like this game to stay UNDER.

Washington St. at UCLA – 10.5 (65.5): The spread opened at 7.5 and expanded to this number rather quickly. Both teams give up about 400 yards per game; UCLA is 20 yards per game better on defense here. Both teams gain about 500 yards per game; State is about 8 yards per game better on offense here. That is too evenly matched to justify a spread like this. I’ll take Washington State plus the points.

Texas at West Virginia – 9 (53): Texas has three games left and they need 2 wins to be bowl eligible. One of those remaining games is against Baylor and even Bevo the Longhorn is not counting on that game as a winner for Texas. Ergo… I’ll take Texas plus the points here just because I think they will be motivated here.

Alabama – 7.5 at Mississippi St. (51.5): Alabama impressed the Selection Committee last week beating LSU and they moved up to #2 in the CFP seeding this week. However, Alabama has a loss this year and there are teams not ranked in the Top 4 this week who are undefeated; Alabama has to continue to impress the Selection Committee. With a 7-2 record, State is a very good team but I think Alabama’s defense is good enough to dominate here. I like this game to stay UNDER.

SMU at Navy – 21 (61): SMU allows 259.6 rushing yards per game. Navy would prefer to run the ball on every play – and they might be able to do that here. Navy averages 326.5 yards per game rushing – 3rd in the country. SMU is a SHOE candidate and they are on the road and their defensive weakness goes against the opponent’s offensive strength. I’ll take Navy and lay the points.

Oklahoma State – 14 at Iowa State (61): Not to put too fine a point on it, I like this game to go OVER.

Arkansas at LSU – 7.5 (54): The question here is how LSU will react to getting thumped by Alabama last week. I think they will react positively. They have a good chance to be 10-1 on the season; if Alabama were to lose a game, LSU could slide into the SEC Championship Game. I like LSU at home to win and cover here.

Oklahoma at Baylor – 3 (76): The spread opened at 5 points and has been gradually declining during the week; it might go even lower by kickoff. If Baylor wins, the Selection Committee for the CFP will have to take notice. If Oklahoma wins, that will set up their game against Oklahoma State as one of the biggest games of the year. Baylor’s freshman QB looked good against K-State last week (see above) but his efforts only produced a 7 point win. Oklahoma is better than K-State; it is as simple as that. I like Oklahoma plus the points here.

Georgia Southern – 6 at Troy (56.5): How can this possibly be a “Game of Interest”? Georgia Southern leads the nation in rushing yards per game – 385.6 yards per game to be exact. Troy gives up 190.7 yards per game on the ground. This is a game of interest just because I want to see the rushing stats for the game!

Oregon at Stanford – 10 (69): If Stanford loses, the PAC-12 will not have a team in the CFP. If you are a conspiracy theory guy, you will be examining every call made by the officials (PAC-12 employees) in this game. That sort of thing does not interest me and I do not really care if the zebras affect the outcome here because I like the game to go OVER.

Minnesota at Iowa – 11.5 (45.5): Iowa fans have been playing the “disrespect card” all week long. Iowa is a good team but until they go and win the Big 10 Championship Game, I will continue to think of them as a “good team” but not one that belongs among the “best teams”. This is going to be a low-scoring game dominated by the two defenses (as the Total Line indicates) and that makes the line look awfully fat. I’ll take Minnesota plus the points.

Finally, here is a comment from Brad Dickson in the Omaha World-Herald regarding the Kansas football team:

“There has been a sudden spike in earthquakes in Kansas. Officials know there’s another earthquake every time the Kansas Jayhawks football offense actually moves forward.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………