Author: Jack

Today we have an example of the adage:

“What goes around, comes around.”

The Earth has rotated on its axis 7 times and that means it is once again time for a Football Friday.  Much as I would prefer not to have to review the selections in last week’s Six-Pack, that is the way these things always begin.  So, here is the sorry-assed news:

• College:  0-0-0  (Season is over)
• NFL:  1-5-0  (Ugh!)
• Combined:  1-5-0  (Ugh, again!)

That sorry-assed performance drops the cumulative totals for this season to:

• College:  20-25-1
• NFL:  32-42-2  (Disgusting!)
• Combined:  52-67-3  (Shameful!)

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The University of Louisiana at Monroe (ULM)  suffered through a dismal season in 2020.  The team record was 0-10; only one of the losses was by one-score; cumulatively, the team was outscored 420-163.  Not surprisingly, the school fired coach Matt Viator because of that season and hired Terry Bowden to take over the program.

Bowden has had experience building/rebuilding programs; he was successful at Samford and at Akron.  He also has big-time coaching experience as the head coach at Auburn and most recently as an “offensive analyst” at Clemson in the Dabo Swinney regime.

Obviously, having looked at some of the film from ULM’s season in 2020, Coach Bowden recognized that there was a lot of repair work to be done.  He enticed Rich Rodriguez to get off the patio swing and return to coaching at ULM.  Rodriguez is an established “offense guy” who had success as a head coach but never the success that was anticipated when he took those head coaching jobs.  The arrival of Rodriguez in Monroe, LA is accompanied by his son, Rhett Rodriguez, who has experience as a college QB at Arizona in the PAC-12 and who has 2 years of college eligibility left.

Normally, a vacancy at a Sun Belt school that has just gone 0-10 is filled with an energetic young coach looking to make a splash and move up the coaching food-chain.  Terry Bowden and Rich Rodriguez may be energetic and enthusiastic, but there is no way to portray than as either “young” or “eager to move up the coaching food-chain”; Bowden is 64 years old and Rodriguez is 57.  This could be an interesting situation to watch starting next season…

The University of Hawaii football program faces everyday challenges that are of little consequence to many other college football programs.  Every away game for the Rainbow Warriors is an event; I believe the shortest flight from Honolulu to the Mainland is a 2400-mile jaunt to San Francisco; an in-conference away game at Air Force or Colorado State involves a flight of 3350 miles.  Now, the program faces a challenge for its home games too.

About a month ago, the Aloha Stadium Authority announced that it would not be hosting any “fan-attended operations” at Aloha Stadium for an indefinite period.  You guessed it; Aloha Stadium is the home field for the University of Hawaii.

Basically, Hawaii has to find itself a field to play on for the 2021 season and beyond – – until they get a new stadium built.  The Stadium Authority said that the closing of the facility was based in finances – – an aspect of running the facility that had been devastated by the COVID-19 effects on football games specifically and the economy in general.  Aloha Stadium was scheduled to undergo significant “renovations” but the money for those things just is not there presently.  A local TV station in Honolulu reported that,

“Aloha Stadium has been deemed unsafe to hold crowds of any manner and is facing condemnation.”

Surely, the change in venue for the Pro Bowl – – in years when the NFL actually plays the Pro Bowl – – from Aloha Stadium to other venues on the Mainland did not help the financial situation faced by the Stadium Authority.  The Pro Bowl was played in Aloha Stadium from 1979 to 2015 save for two seasons; those games had to be a major influx of revenue for the facility.

This will not be an easy time for the Hawaii Athletic Department; existing venues in Hawaii for a college football game are far smaller than what is normal and expected; visiting teams share the gate and – obviously – the gate will be smaller with a smaller seating capacity.  Stand by on this one; I have a gut feeling that this story has chapters yet to be written…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I said before that I intended to wait until all the NFL coaching vacancies were filled to comment on them in context.  I still plan to do that, but I want to address something that arose in an email exchange with a reader.  I do not know this person in real life; from context clues in his communications, my guess is that he is in his 30s; if I am way off, I am sure he will let me know about that.  I mention his age because I believe it colors – and maybe even limits – some of his perspective here.

We had several exchanges of emails so let me paraphrase his original comment to me which set the exchange in motion:

• Why is everyone making a big deal about the Jaguars hiring Urban Meyer?  Being  a successful college coach does not translate to being successful in the NFL – even the best college coach, Nick Saban, was not a winner in the NFL.  I think the job of a college coach is totally different from the job of an NFL coach.

Let me take the issues presented there separately:

• The reason the hiring of Urban Meyer is a “big deal” is that Urban Meyer is the most successful college coach out there other than Nick Saban – – and Nick Saban has shown exactly no interest in leaving Alabama to return to the NFL.  [Aside:  In a relaxed moment, I can hear Coach Saban saying that he has the best football job in the country, and it would be foolish for him to leave it because … Mrs. Saban raised no dumb children.]
• Whenever a coach goes from college to the NFL – – and to some degree when a coach leaves the NFL to go to a collegiate job – – there is a natural anticipation regarding how well he might do in that different environment.
• I agree that the two jobs are far more different than they are similar.  The roster assembly is different; there is something in the NFL called the Draft which keeps a coach from even talking to some players he may covet.  College players are still “boys” to a large extent; NFL players are adults.  College players may be rebellious and do stupid things; NFL players generally have plenty of money which opens possibilities for them to do even dumber things…  The jobs are quite different and lots of folks want to see how coaches adapt when they move from one level to the other.
• Most importantly, I tried to convince my interlocutor that not all college coaches flop in the NFL.  Yes, Nick Saban’s record over a 2-years period with the Dolphins was only 15-17.  Even worse, Steve Spurrier was 12-20 over a 2-year period with the Skins.  And Lou Holtz only lasted a single season as the head coach of the Jets finishing at 3-13.  Those are three very accomplished college coaches all of whom won National Championships and they all flopped at the pro game.
• Further back in history, Bud Wilkinson’s Oklahoma teams dominated college football.  In 17 seasons there, Wilkinson’s record was 145-29-4; his teams won the National Championship 3 times.  From 1953 through 1957, his teams won 47 consecutive games – – a record that still stands.  After he left Oklahoma, he entered politics and broadcasting before trying his hand at coaching the St. Louis Cardinals in the NFL.  He lasted only a year and a half; his record there was 9-20.  So, there is another phenomenally successful college coach who did not translate his success to the NFL.
• However, there were some college coaches who went to the NFL and excelled.  Dick Vermeil took over a terrible Eagles’ team and got them to the Super Bowl after 4 seasons; he then went on a long coaching hiatus and came back to win the Super Bowl with the Rams.  Jimmy Johnson and Pete Carroll won Super Bowls after moving up to the NFL from successful college coaching stints.  Moreover, two of the most significant innovators in football history introduced their innovations to the world in the pro game after having had success at the collegiate level.
• The first innovator is Bill Walsh – – the father of the West Coast Offense.  He took the Niners to the Super Bowl 4 times and won 3 of those games.  One of the major accomplishments on his résumé that got him the Niners’ job in the first place was his success at Stanford
• The second innovator is Paul Brown.  His Cleveland Browns dominated the NFL in the 1950s playing in seven NFL Championship games then.  His teams in the 1950s were the dynasty of the NFL akin to Lombardi’s Packers and their dynasty in the 1960s.  Brown’s college experience was at Ohio State – one of the same stops Urban Meyer has made in his coaching odyssey.

Perhaps the fascination with the Urban Meyer hiring boils down to a curiosity on the part of fans to see if he more resembles Bill Walsh in terms of success in the NFL – – or if he is a reincarnation of Lou Holtz at that level.  So, just sit back; relax; enjoy a favorite beverage and watch…

The NFL playoffs are now down to the Final Four – – except the NCAA would get all huffy if the NFL ever chose to label this part of the playoffs as such.  So, how did we winnow the field down from 8 to 4?

Last week, the Chiefs held on to beat the Browns 22-17.  The Chiefs dominated the stat sheet but managed to make it a nail-biter down to the 2-minute mark in the second half.  Of course, you know that Patrick Mahomes had to leave the game with a “concussion” or a “choke out” or a “neck injury” or a whatever.  The Chiefs won the game in the end because they converted a 3^rd and 14 with a 13-yard scramble by Chad Henne followed by a 4^th down pass reception from Henne to Tyreek Hill for a first down.  Baker Mayfield played well, and Nick Chubb was a handful in the run game all day long averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  This was an entertaining game to watch; the better team won the game.  Having said that, the Browns are a team on the rise…

The Bucs beat the Saints 30-20.  The popular storyline was the clash of two QBs in their 40s in this playoff game; the real story of the game was the turnover stats:

• Saints turned it over 4 times – – 3 INTs and 1 lost fumble.
• Bucs turned it over ZERO times.

Three of those 4 turnovers led to TDs by the Bucs on a short field.  The 4^th turnover gave the ball to the Bucs in a position to run out the clock at the end of the game.  The two QBs really spread the ball around in the game; Tom Brady completed passes to 9 receivers; Drew Brees completed passes to 10 receivers in the game.  It was interesting to watch these two QBs who will both be in the Hall of Fame soon after they retire from the game, but it was not nearly as entertaining as the Chiefs/Browns game.

The Packers beat the Rams 32-18.  This game was not as close as the score would indicate; the Packers gained 484 yards on offense while the Rams only managed 244.  The Rams’ defense was hobbled by the limited play of Aaron Donald due to a rib injury suffered two weeks ago.  The score was 25-18 at the start of the 4^th quarter – – but I never had the feeling that the Packers were going to lose the game.

The Bills beat the Ravens 17-3.  The Ravens dominated the stat sheet particularly in the running game; the Ravens gained 150 yards on the ground to only 32 yards gained by the Bills.  The Ravens had the ball for more than 35 minutes and were 7 of 17 on third down conversions.  And still, they scored only 3 points in the game.  This was a one-score game late in the 3^rd quarter with the Ravens threatening to score the tying TD when Bills’ DB, Taron Johnson, intercepted a Lamar Jackson pass in the end zone and returned it 101 yards for a Bills’ TD that put the game on ice.

Lamar Jackson had to leave the game after he slammed his head on the turf scrambling for a ball that was snapped over his head.  The only other active QB for the day was Tyler Huntley who had been elevated from the practice squad earlier in the week.  In about a quarter of play, Huntley was 6 of 13 for 60 yards passing and he gained 32 yards on 3 scrambles.  Not a bad showing for an undrafted rookie QB in a divisional playoff game…

 

NFL Games:

 

Tampa Bay at Green Bay – 3.5 (51):  There was a period in the late 1980s when the Packers were not very good; over a 6-year period, the Packers record was 33-61-1.  [There was a strike-shortened season in 1987; that is why the total number of games is not divisible by 16.]  Over the same period, the Bucs were even worse; their record was 25-70-0.  The two teams were in the same division then and played each other twice a year; those games were not-so-lovingly referred to as “Bay of Pigs Games”.  Not so in 2021; these are two very good teams and the game should be a good one.

The Bucs’ defense made Drew Brees look ordinary last week.  I think the key to this game is the ability of the Bucs’ defense to do something similar to Aaron Rodgers this week.  The Packers have won 7 games in a row and have scored an average of just over 33 points per game in that span; therein lies the challenge for the Bucs’ defense.

The Packers’ defense has its own challenges for the game.  The Bucs’ running attack has been getting better as the season progressed and Ronald Jones plus Leonard Fournette present a formidable pair of running backs.  If the Bucs can present a balanced offense running the ball and using play action, the Packers’ defense could be in for an awfully long day.

The weather forecast is for cold – as should be expected in northern Wisconsin in January.  That would seem to be a factor in favor of the Packers; The Bucs have not been practicing in temperatures nearly so frigid.

I think both offenses here will have success.  I like the game to go OVER and I like the Bucs plus the points; put those selections in this week’s Six-Pack. 

Buffalo at KC – 3 (54):  If the NFC Championship Game is a battle of two sure-fire Hall of Fame QBs who have been entertaining football audiences for next-to-forever, this game is a battle between two young gun QBs.  The weather in KC for Sunday calls for a 40% chance of rain with temps in the 30s and 10 mph winds.  Given the way Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes can throw the football, I would have wished that this game could be played in a Sun Belt locale or a dome, but football is a game where players need to adapt to the elements.

Teams always have difficulty matching up with Tyreek Hill; one key to this game is the ability of TreDavious White to keep Hill from wreaking havoc in the Bills’ secondary.  Another key to the game is the mirror image of this one; how will the Chiefs’ secondary deal with Stefon Diggs to keep him under some semblance of control.

Since Week 9 of the regular season, the Chiefs are 8-1 straight up but only 1-8 against the spread; they have not won a game by two scores since beating the Jets 35-9 on November 1^st.  Meanwhile the Bills have been hot over their last 8 games – – all wins.  Seven of those eight wins were by double-digits and the point differential over that span is +135 points.

The Bills’ defense was outstanding last week; I do not think they will be able to hold the Chiefs to 3 points this week.  The Chiefs’ defense will need to be on top of its game to contain the Bills’ offense – – and they have film from last week and the Ravens as to how that might be possible.  This game is going to be a fun game to watch.

I like this game to stay UNDER and I like the Chiefs to win and cover at home; put those selections in the Six-Pack.

Let me review the four selections in this week’s Six-Pack:

• Bucs +3 against Packers
• Bucs/Packers OVER 51
• Chiefs – 3 over Bills
• Chiefs/Bills UNDER 54.

Finally, having spent some time discussing the general fascination of the Jags hiring Urban Meyer as their coach, let me close with this observation by Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“The Jacksonville Jaguars have hired college-coaching icon Urban Meyer as their new head coach.

“But no, he had to be told, you can’t sign 10 Alabama players to letters of intent.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I begin today on a personal note.  There is a benefit to being an old fart; yesterday afternoon, my number came up and I received my first dose of the Moderna Vaccine.  The selection process is the mirror image of ageism; rather than experiencing an adverse action as a result of my advanced age, I received a benefit based on nothing more than my date of birth.

And … regarding any worries I might have that I was just “microchipped” such that the chip can be interrogated to locate me and track me, I have two simple responses:

1. Why would anyone give a damn [Hat tip to Rhett Butler] regarding my whereabouts?
2. My cell phone already does that.

Earlier this week, I mentioned the firing of Tennessee head football coach, Jeremy Pruitt, and said that it was due to some recruiting violations that had come to light during an internal university investigation.  As is normally the case, the NCAA super-sleuths did not uncover these violations of NCAA rules; someone else did and that is how the NCAA found out about it.  If you are seeking Sherlock Holmes, Hercule Poirot or Miss Jane Marple, do not waste your time looking in Indianapolis, IN – – home of the NCAA.  There you are most apt to find the likes of Inspector Clouseau, Barney Fife and/ or Inspector Gadget.

However, as further reporting brings to light more of the details at Tennessee, there is reason to heap scorn on the incompetence resident in Knoxville.  I will cite in a moment the allegations pending against the outgoing regime there but just to set the stage, let me review a few facts that are not remotely in dispute:

• The University of Tennessee (UT) is now embarked on its fifth search for a head football coach since the end of the 2008 season.  Jeremy Pruitt was preceded in that job by Butch Jones, Derek Dooley and Lane Kiffin.
• [Aside:  In late 2020, UT extended the contract of Coach Pruitt through the end of the 2026 season and gave him a raise.  I suspect that no one in the chain of command there will raise his/her hand today to say it was a good idea back then,]
• The Vols began the 2020 season with two wins over South Carolina and Missouri.  Then they lost 7 of their last 8 tames with the only win coming at the expense of woebegone Vandy in mid-December.
• Kevin Steele was hired as the new Defensive Coordinator about a month ago; he is now the “Acting Head Coach”.   If sanctions and recruitment restrictions are headed in UT’s direction, it would make sense to name him the “Permanent Head Coach” because he will surely work cheap and it will not matter who is the head coach because the team is going to “struggle” for the next several years.

So, what is it that Coach Pruitt is alleged to have overseen as the major domo of the Tennessee football program?

• A source told Dan Patrick and Patrick reported it on his radio program that potential recruits would get McDonald’s bags from assistant coaches that contained cash money instead of a Big Mac and large fries.
• [Aside:  No, I do not give the assistant coaches there “creativity points” for finding new variants on the “hundred-dollar handshake”.]

As I noted a couple of days ago, the reason that Pruitt got the job at UT in the first place was that the coaching search at that time turned up a name that did not sit well with some virtue signalers, social justice warriors and some of the local sports radio yakkers in the local area.  That bit of history gives some context to this observation by Pat Forde at SI.com:

“Good job, Vols. Good effort. You got your program back — whatever that means — and it’s a bigger dumpster fire than ever. You’ve surpassed even Auburn as the Dysfunction Capital of the Southeastern Conference. Maybe leave the radio guy’s opinions out of the coaching search this time.”

Speaking of college football coaches and the SEC, I was interested to see that Doug Marrone – – recently fired as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars – – has decided to put some luster back on his coaching résumé by taking the job of offensive line coach at Alabama under the tutelage of Nick Saban.   Here is Marrone’s performance as a head coach from 2009 to 2020:

• He was 25-25 at Syracuse over a 4-year span
• He was 15-17 with the Buffalo Bills over a 2-year span
• He was 1-1 as the interim coach of the Jags at the end of the 2016 season
• He was 22-42 as the head coach of the Jags over a 4-year span.
• That record pretty well defines, “Meh!”

Doug Marrone is only 56 years old; I would be shocked if he did not aspire to at least one more “head coaching gig” before he hangs up his whistle for good.  And so, he does the football coaches’ equivalent of a pilgrimage to the cleansing waters of Lourdes; he takes a job with Nick Saban to assimilate by osmosis the essences of winning football from “The Guru”.  If you think I am exaggerating, please check this out; it is a compilation of 21 former Nick Saban assistant coaches who went on to get head coaching gigs.  Oh, by the way it was compiled in 2019 so there may be an addition to two to the list…

Finally, in keeping with the college football heading for today’s rant, here is a pertinent comment from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Michigan football center Zach Carpenter has entered the NCAA transfer portal.

“Forget the victors — hail to the first Uber out of town.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NCAA announced some alterations in the standard schedule for March Madness recently.  The first change came several weeks ago when they announced that the entire tournament would be held in Indianapolis – all 67 games.  That announcement made sense; there are enough court facilities in town to provide game venues; it would allow for much less travel and an enhanced – if not perfect – “bubble environment”; and it is about as neutral a site as could be picked ahead of time.  Yesterday, the NCAA announced that the normal pattern of games would be different in the 2021 tournament:

• Normally, the 4 play-in games – – the First Four in NCAA parlance – – would take place on the Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday.  In 2021, all four games will take place on the Thursday after Selection Sunday – – March 18,2021.
• That movement requires a change in the first-round games since the four winners of the play-in games need to take part in the first-round games which normally would begin on the Thursday after Selection Sunday.  This year, the first-round games will be held on Friday and Saturday – – March 19 and March 20, 2021.
• That would push the second-round games to Sunday and Monday – – March 21 and March 22, 2021.
• Sweet Sixteen games will be Saturday and Sunday – – March 27 and 28, 2021 – – this year as opposed to Thursday and Friday as in the past.
• Regional finals will be Monday and Tuesday – – March 29 and March 30, 2021.
• The Final Four games will be Saturday April 3, 2021 with the Championship Game taking place on Monday April 5, 2021.

It will be interesting to see how fans react to the new timing of the games.  There are several positive aspects to it not the least of which is that four of the teams involved in two of the play-in games do not have to do a turn-around from Sunday to Tuesday to play their first tournament game.  That put the winners of the first set of play-in games on a schedule to play Tuesday, Thursday and then Saturday if they won the first two games.  This scheduling spreads out those games.

I will reserve judgement regarding the shifting of the Sweet Sixteen games and the regional finals simply because I can convince myself that it is either a significant change or a trivial one depending on how I look at it.  So, rather than make a pronouncement now, I think I will just experience this different schedule and react to it after the fact.

We have seen that COVID-19 has a way of wreaking havoc on sports schedules for the past year or so.  This scheduling is ambitious particularly considering the number of COVID-19 cases that have been detected among college basketball players and coaches so far in this patchwork season.  CBSSports.com tracks canceled/postponed college basketball games for the season; as of this morning there have already been 125 such cancellations/postponements and according to the website, there are 15 more to add to the list between now and Saturday, January 23,2021.

As I said, this is an ambitious plan and given my enthusiasm for March Madness, I certainly hope it goes off without a hitch.  Now, all I have to do is to tamp down that little voice in the back of my head quoting Robert Burns :

“The best laid schemes o’ Mice and Men, gang aft agley.”

[The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.]

Moving along …  There certainly has been a barrage of Internet ads for the HBO documentary on Tiger Woods.  One of the promotional come-ons was the assertion that in this documentary,

• “The raw truth about Tiger Woods is about to be revealed.”

I am not big on documentaries in the first place simply because too many of them are nothing but video versions of opinion pieces; if you know more than a little bit about the producer of the documentary you pretty much know what it will “reveal” and/or “document”.  They are not all that different from op-ed pieces or magazine essays where you know about the views of the author as you consume the first paragraph.

With that prejudice against documentaries as a category of events that reveal “the raw truth”, you will not be surprised to learn that I missed the first installment and plan to miss any subsequent installments.  However, I find it interesting that the folks at HBO were able to put together this “revelation of raw truth” without anyone asking how such “raw truth” might have escaped the journalistic probing and “seeking of the truth for the benefit of the American public” over all those years.  For way too long, the nominal journalists who cover golf have given a pass to plenty of impolite and/or anti-social behavior by various golfers and then those folks took that “look-the-other-way” school of reporting to an art form with Tiger Woods.

The reason there might even be “raw truth” to reveal about Tiger Woods is because he has had nothing but fawning coverage – bordering on idolatry – for about 20 years.  A major component of the existence of such “raw truth” is the complicity of the toadies who covered golf and Tiger Woods.

Finally, the effect of COVID-19 on the NBA has also been significant this season causing the NBA to add new restrictions to its virus protocols.  One such restriction is a limitation on postgame hugs and handshakes among the players.  Bob Molinaro captured that element of the NBA protocol recently in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“These times: Thunder guard George Hill, on the NBA’s updated COVID protocol: ‘We can sweat 48 minutes a game with (an opponent) next to us, but we can’t talk to them afterwards. It makes no sense.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today, I want to analyze NFL teams that have “QB issues” to deal with in the off-season.  At first glance, one might think that this list would duplicate the list of 6 teams out there looking for a new coach; and indeed, there is plenty of overlap.  However, as one counterexample, the Chargers have Justin Herbert on their roster and their new coach – Brandon Staley – ought not to be kept awake at nights wondering what to do at that position.  I think there are 13 NFL teams with “QB issues” and I want to divide them into 3 categories.

Category 1 are the teams that have a QB issue of their own making.  I put 5 teams in Category 1:

1. Eagles:  The regression of Carson Wentz’ capacity to play QB has been stunning; the reports that he is disgruntled and would prefer to be out of Philly speaks to the way his regression was handled by the former coaching staff.  People say his contract makes him untradeable; the new coach there had better arrive with a plan for team improvement and a bucket of salve for a huge case of the red ass.
2. Jets:  Sam Darnold has been in the NFL for 3 years and has started 38 games – – and the Jets still have no idea if he can be a franchise QB.  He started his career with a defensive-minded coach followed by two years under Adam Gase’s random regime.  The Jets do not know what Darnold can do and I doubt that Darnold knows either.  Should the Jets be done with their upheaval with the hiring of Robert Saleh – – or do they need a new QB in this year’s draft too?
3. Lions:  Someone there allowed a rumor to start saying that the Lions might be looking to move on from Matthew Stafford.  I am not here to suggest that Stafford will be in the HoF someday, but he is a more-then-adequate starting QB who will be 33 next season.  If he leaves – or becomes less enthusiastic based on this rumor floating about, this is a self-inflicted wound by the Lions.  And what else might one expect from the Lions…?
4. Niners:  Reports say that the Niners have an out for Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract this year and that they are considering exercising that out.  Jimmy G. has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons in SF; but when he was healthy for an entire season in 2019, the Niners went to the Super Bowl.  Garoppolo will be 30 years old next season.
5. Texans:  If reports are accurate, the Texans’ owner and Deshaun Watson have found a way to put a gap between themselves.  Assuming that both parties have dispute resolution skills beyond that of third-grade playground adversaries, this is a spitting contest that needs to end immediately.  If the Texans must “move on” from Deshaun Watson over this “feud”, the Texans’ ownership will descend in the NFL rankings down to “Danny Boy Snyder level”.

Might there be a solution to the “QB issue” for two teams here in Category 1?  Carson Wentz and Jimmy G both have big contracts that make them – supposedly – untradeable; might an exchange of one for the other be feasible?  Each player gets a new venue to show his talent.

Category 2 are the teams with a talent deficiency at the position simply because the QB decisions made by the franchise over the past five years or so have not panned out.

1. Bears:  Mitchell Trubisky lights things up occasionally; so do fireflies.  He has been in the league 4 seasons and started 50 games; he is only 26 years old; he has not shown that he is “the guy”.  Nick Foles is a great backup QB but never seems to work out as the “main man”.  The other two QBs on the Bears’ roster today are Tyler Bray and Kyle Sloter.  The Bears are between Scylla and Charybdis.  (Hat Tip to Homer…)  The Bears draft 20^th in April; that does not seem to be the way they are going to resolve their issue.
2. Broncos:  John Elway was one of the great QBs of NFL history; nevertheless, he has been singularly unable to find a competent QB for his Broncos save for the time that Peyton Manning “fell into his lap”.  Since Manning’s retirement 5 years ago, here are the 10 QBs that Elway has given his coach as a potential starter: Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemien, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Philip Lindsey and Drew Lock.  Of that mélange, Driskel, Lock and Rypien are still on the roster.  The Broncos draft 9^th this year; will there be a QB available for them at that position?
3. Jags:  The Jags have had QB issues since the days when Mark Brunell and/or Byron Leftwich were playing; that was about 15 years ago.  The current roster has Mike Glennon, Jake Luton and Gardner Minshew as the team QBs; perhaps you may think of all three as serviceable backups for a week or two but nothing more than that.  The good news here is that the Jags draft first in April in a draft where there are several excellent talents to be had.  We shall see…

Category 3 are the teams where the QB issue was created by – or at least exacerbated by – Father Time.

1. Colts:  The Colts rolled the dice with Philip Rivers last year and made the playoffs.  If Rivers chooses to come back next  year on another 1-year deal, the Colts QB issue devolves to “kicking the can down the road”.  Other than Rivers, the Colts’ QBs are Jacoby Brissett and Jacob Eason.  Brissett has been in the league 5 seasons and has 32 starts under his belt.  Maybe he is a worthy heir apparent to Philip Rivers…  Or not…
2. Saints:  Jay Glazer reports that Drew Brees is retiring now that the Saints’ playoff run in 2021 is over.  Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemien and Jameis Winston are currently on the roster.  None would appear to approach Brees in terms of productivity but – to be clear – the Saints’ QB issue is not nearly as dire a situation as exist for other teams on this list.
3. Steelers:  Yes, I know the Steelers won their first 11 games in 2020 and made the playoffs.  Nevertheless, for the last month or so, Ben Roethlisberger looked like a shell of his HoF self.  If he comes back, the Steelers have a QB issue of one kind – – namely a limited capability starter.  If he retires, the Steelers have a QB issue of a different stripe – namely that neither Mason Rudolph nor Joshua Dobbs has shown a lot of evidence of being or becoming a franchise QB.  Dobbs has been in the NFL for 4 years and Rudolph for 3 years…
4. Patriots:  Cam Newton is a shell of his former self; Brian Hoyer will be 36 years old next year; he has been in the NFL for 12 seasons and has shown that he is a journeyman backup QB over that lengthy period.  To be fair, the Pats; pass-catching corps is also talent deficient to a similar degree; both parts of the offensive unit need serious reconstruction.  However, there is no hiding the fact that the Pats’ need to effect a significant upgrade at QB.
5. WTFs:  Ron Rivera has shown that his system can produce some winning football with Alex Smith at QB, but Alex Smith checks every box imaginable when it comes to “Reasons Why He Is Not The Guy You Build Around”.  In addition to his injury history, Smith will be 37 years old next season.   Taylor Heinicke has appeared in 9 NFL games – starting 2 of them – in  his 3 seasons in the NFL; he played exceptionally well in his playoff start this year – – but is that enough to tell the team that their QB issue is resolved?  Fans in Washington need to hope for Smith’s health to hold up and/or for Heinicke to be a diamond in the rough because the WTFs do not draft until 20^th this year and there will likely not be a gemstone quality QB available then.

These 13 teams with a “QB issue” exemplify how and why it is important for a coach and  a GM to be able to work together constructively.  Bill Belichick could not coach his way to the playoffs with Cam Newton as the QB; Mike Tomlin could not overcome Ben Roethlisberger’s diminished performances at the end of the 2020 season; Ron Rivera squeezed every drop of juice from the lemons he had at the QB position in 2020.  Those are 3 top-shelf football coaches and their outcomes in 2020 demonstrate that a talent ceiling is something that cannot be overcome save for dumb luck.  John Elway as a GM demonstrated over the past several seasons that the ability to find a franchise QB is critically important to watching your coach have success on the sidelines on Sunday afternoons.

This list comprises 40% of the NFL franchises.  All of them need to address this issue directly; some will do so, and others will punt.  Stay tuned…

Finally, fans and coaches and GMs – and maybe even owners – of these teams will approach the offseason with vigor and optimism that these issues may be resolved positively and rapidly.  For that, let me provide this observation by Ambrose Bierce:

“Optimism: The doctrine or belief that everything is beautiful, including that which is ugly.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

When Macbeth learns of Lady Macbeth’s death, he begins a soliloquy with:

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day …”

Well, at the normal petty pace, there have been seven tomorrows since last Friday and that means today it is time for another Football Friday.  As is the custom, I shall begin by reviewing last week’s Six-Pack – knowing full well that getting the season record up to .500 is horribly unlikely:

• College:  1-1-0
• NFL:  3-3-0
• Combined:  4-4-0

That brings the cumulative record to an unimpressive:

• College:  20-25-1
• NFL:  31-37-2
• Combined:  51-62-3

 

College Football Commentary:

 

As is seemingly always the case, there is an undercurrent of consternation at the conclusion of the CFP this year.  It was also the case with the late-but-not-lamented BCS Championship, and the common theme is that the opportunity to become the national champion is not sufficiently open to enough teams.  As soon as that subject comes up, there is a reflexive reaction to recall the Boise State upset of Oklahoma demonstrating that – if given the chance – David can slay Goliath on a football field as he did in the Valley of Elah.

Indeed, that Fiesta Bowl game was a shock; but for just a moment, put that upset into a bit of perspective:

• That game took place on January 1^st, 2007; that was 13 seasons ago.  Since there have been no bowl game upsets of such importance that this game has been allowed to fade into memory, one might begin to conclude that “Davids” do not routinely rise up and slay “Goliaths”.
• The final spread on that game was 7-points in favor of Oklahoma; this was not a  team winning outright when the oddsmakers thought it was a three-touchdown spread.  Teams that are 7-point underdogs only pay about 3-to-1 to win the game outright; that is not much of a longshot.
• At the kickoff, Oklahoma was ranked #7 in the country and Boise State was ranked #9.  Had that game taken place under those conditions in mid-October, I doubt the game would be remembered 13 years after it happened.

All that is a prelude to a simple and direct question for college football fans who paid attention to the games from October through last weekend:

• Did you see – with your own eyes – a college football team that was better week-to-week than Alabama?

I did not and I have no allegiance or rooting interest in any of the teams ranked in the Top 25 as of the end of the season.  I do not mean to imply that this year’s Alabama team was invincible; of course, on any given Saturday …  Nonetheless, that was the best college football team I saw all season long by a comfortable margin.

I am convinced that the CFP will eventually be expanded for reasons having exactly nothing to do with “fairness” or “expansion of opportunity” and having everything to do with increased revenues.  And when that happens – my guess is in the next 5 years or so – it will be equally difficult for teams in minor conferences to get an invitation unless the field is expanded well beyond any logical limit.

Look at this year’s results as you ponder what might have been the field with a 6-team bracket handing BYE Weeks to the two highest ranking teams:

• Texas A&M would almost certainly have been the #5 seed.
• People who want to see “the little guys” get a fair shot would argue that undefeated Cincy should have been #6.  I say, the results point in a different direction.
• Cincy got a shot in a bowl game against Georgia and lost in a close game.  However, Georgia lost straight up to Florida by 16 points.  So, how is it logical – not emotional – to say that Cincy belonged in the CFP instead of Florida?
• By the way, Florida had lost 3 games in the regular season and should never have been part of the CFP consideration – – and then, Florida lost its Cotton Bowl encounter to Oklahoma by 5 TDs.

It makes no sense to argue that the CFP Selection Committee does not put the “right teams” in the CFP and then say that by increasing the number of teams for them to select that they will “get it right”.  The selection process is flawed because the people involved are not “neutral arbiters” and because they do not have the time to study enough to do their rankings efficiently and effectively.  Those folks have full time jobs other than being on that Committee.

This annual emotional outburst at the end of the CFP has gotten tedious.  The tedium is particularly evident this year when – I assert – Alabama was indeed the best college football team from October through January.

In a college coaching move, it appears as if Bill O’Brien will seek the calming and cleansing waters that are available to assistant coaches at Alabama.  O’Brien left the Houston Texans under a cloud and with the team roster in shambles.  His previous reputation took on a lot of mud in the process but now he will be the Offensive Coordinator for Nick Saban and those sorts of positions have a recent history of restoring a gleam to damaged coaching reputations.

Bonne chance, Coach O’Brien…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Urban Meyer has signed up to be the head coach of the Jags.  I will wait until all the NFL coaching openings are filled to think about the scope of all the changes made in that area, but I will say this about Coach Meyer:

• In his 7 years at Ohio State, Meyer’s teams lost a total of 9 games.
• If his first year with the Jags results in the Jags losing fewer than 9 games, he might be the Coach of the Year in the NFL.

The Jets announced that Robert Saleh will be their new head coach; Saleh had been the Defensive Coordinator for the Niners for the past several years.  There had been rumors that the Jets would hire recently fired Eagles’ coach Doug Pederson; those rumors were based on the previous working relationship between Pederson and Jets’ GM, Joe Douglas.  Now that those rumors have been put to rest, let me offer a note of encouragement for Jets’ fans:

• A little more than 25 years ago, the Jets hired a recently fired Eagles’ coach and it did not end well at all.  History does not always repeat itself – – but every once in a while…
• No matter the outcome of the Robert Saleh regime in NYC, he will not have an anvil labeled “Kotite” hanging over his head from Day One.

Before all the other vacancies are filled, I do want to make a comment about one report of a coaching interview.  The Falcons reportedly interviewed Todd Bowles for the job in Atlanta.  Notwithstanding a losing record with the Jets, I thought that Bowles did a good job there with the roster he had.  The Falcons have a significant need for a roster upgrade and Bowles could be the guy to see them through the rebuilding stages.

So, what may we glean from last week’s playoff games?  The Ravens beat the Titans 20-13.  More important than the score is the fact that the Ravens held Derrick Henry to 40 yards rushing on 18 carries.  The game also got the monkey off Lamar Jackson’s back as he won the first playoff game of his career.  The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but dominated the game from that point forward.  The Ravens turned the tables on the Titans; normally, it is the Titans that dominate the running stats for a game; here the Ravens outgained the Titans on the ground 236 yards to 51 yards.

The Saints beat the Bears 21-9.  The Bears’ defense played well; holding the Saints to 21 points is an accomplishment; that matches the lowest output by the Saint’s offense for all of the 2020 season.  The Bears’ offense, however, told a different story:

• The Bears had the ball for only 21 minutes in the game.
• The Bears ran 49 plays, and the Saint ran 75 plays.
• The Bears made only 11 first downs
• The Bears were 1 of 10 on third down conversions.

Added to those woes, the Bears were penalized 9 times in the game and 5 of those penalties gave the Saints a first down.  On a few plays, Mitchell Trubisky made perfect throws; however, for most of the game, he looked mystified as to what he was seeing and what he should do about it.  The Bears’ braintrust needs to do some heavy analysis of their QB situation for the future.  That Bears’ defense is not getting any younger…

The Browns beat the Steelers 48-37.  The Browns ran off to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter; if something could have gone wrong for the Steelers in that opening quarter, it did.  The Steelers dominated the stat sheet – but to no avail:

• Steelers led in time of possession 32:46 to 26:40.
• Steelers had 34 first downs to Browns’ 20.
• Steelers gained 553 yards on offense to the Browns’ 390.
• Steelers were 8 of 15 on third down and 3 of 3 on fourth down conversions.
• Ben Roethlisberger threw for 501 yards and 4 TDs in the game.

So, how could the Steelers have lost by 11 points?  Well, look no further than the five turnovers by the Steelers – 4 INTs and a fumble that was recovered by the Browns for a TD on the first play of the game.  Once again, the Steelers demonstrated the absence of a running game gaining only 52 yards on 15 carries.  Indeed, Roethlisberger threw for 501 yards – – but it took him 68 attempts to get to that mark.  All they could do for most of the night was dink-and-dunk.  And that leads me to wonder:

• Is Ben Roethlisberger finished?  He will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days, but has Father Time come knocking on his door?

The Steelers have not won a playoff game in 4 years; this is not a team that needs a drastic “rebuild” because the defense is very good, and the pass catchers are more than adequate.  The Steelers do need to shore up the OL in the off-season and they may just need to be in the QB market for the first time in an awfully long time.

The Bills beat the Colts 27-24.  Like the Steelers above, the Colts dominated the stat sheet:

• Colts led in time of possession 34:17 to 25:43.
• Colts had 27 first downs to the Bills’ 22.
• Colts were 9 of 17 on third down to the Bills’ 2 of 9.
• Colts were 2 of 4 on fourth down conversions.
• Colts had 472 yards on offense to the Bills’ 397.

The Colts trailed 24-10 with eleven minutes to go in the fourth quarter but rallied to make a game of it.  The Colts had a “Hail Mary” shot at winning the game on the final play.  However, a decision in the middle of the second quarter loomed large at the end of the game.  The Colts had the ball first and goal at the Bills 4 yardline with the Colts leading 10-7.  The first three plays resulted in a net of zero yards; a short pass and a run from a wildcat formation got the ball to the 1 yardline where the Colts lost 3 yards on a running play.  Now it is 4^th and goal at the 4 yardline and the Colts decide to go for it and get nothing from the drive.  Note, that the Colts lost the game by 3 points…

The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-20.  The fact that All-World defensive tackle, Aaron Donald, had to leave the game with a rib injury must mean that this result is not an unalloyed success for the Rams.  The fact that Jared Goff was able to be as effective as he was is a bright spot because he had had surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand – – several pins were inserted – – only 12 days prior to this game.  He was needed once starter John Wolford had to leave the game with an apparent neck injury in the first quarter.

The Seahawks like to run the football, but the Rams outgained the Seahawks on the ground 164 yards to 136 yards and they held the edge in time of possession 33 minutes to 27 minutes.  Neither team was particularly good on third down conversions; the Rams were 3 of 15 in that situation; the Seahawks were 2 of 14.  Ho hum …

The Seahawks turned the ball over twice – – one was a Pick Six – – and those plays certainly did not help their cause.  This was a defensive game from start to finish notwithstanding the total score of 50 points.

The Bucs beat the WTFs 31-23.  You can look at the two QB performances here and see one as “business as usual” and the other as “wow, look at that”.

• “Business as usual” would be Tom Brady.  He was 22 of 40 for 381 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  Just another “day at the office”.
• “Wow, look at that” would be Taylor Heinicke.  He was 26 of 44 for 306 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  Heinicke also led the WTFs in rushing with 46 yards on 6 carries and a rushing TD.

This game was in doubt to the end.  At the start of the 4^th quarter, the Bucs led by a tenuous 18-16 score; they extended the lead to 28-16 with 9 minutes left in the game but the WTFs closed to 28-23 with about 5 minutes to go.  The Bucs added a field goal and then held the WTFs on downs to ice the game.

One of my “takeaways” from this game was that Tom Brady may be even less mobile than he was in the past and Tom Brady may not be able to throw the ball 60 yards downfield more than once a month – – and that does not really matter.  What matters is his accuracy and his ability to hit receivers in stride such that they can gain more yards after they catch the football.  Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees all excel in that phase of quarterbacking – – and that is why all three of them are still going to be on the field this weekend in their “football dotage”.

 

NFL Games:

 

(Sat 4:35 PM EST)  Rams at Green Bay – 6.5 (46.5):  Anytime there is a football game in Green Bay in January, one should check with Weather.com to see if Mother Nature wants to be part of the action.  The forecast for Saturday is for morning snow showers with a high temperature of 35 degrees and a low of 27 degrees; wind out of the NNW at 12 mph.  So, this will not be a game that harkens back to the famous Ice Bowl game in 1967 when the temperature was 13 degrees below zero.  However, if you are a QB with a recently surgically repaired thumb on your throwing hand, my guess is that you might encounter a small degree of difficulty gripping a football.  If history is any guide, Aaron Rodgers will not have difficulty throwing or gripping a cold football so there is an advantage for the Packers there.    The Rams’ defense ranked 1^st in the NFL over the regular season in total yards allowed and it ranked 1^st in pass defense allowing only 190.7 yards per game.  Can Aaron Donald play effectively here?  He is a big part of that defensive prowess.  And in addition to watching the line play involving Donald and/or his substitute, here is the battle that will be interesting and perhaps determinant for the game:

• Davante Adams is one of the best WRs in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target.  Jalen Ramsey is outstanding as a cover corner who routinely draws the opponent’s top receiving threat and usually holds that receiver in check.
• Let the game begin…

The other key to this game should be the ability of the Rams to run the football.   The Packers’ defense ranked 13th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 112.8.  The Rams’ averaged 126 yards per game on the ground; if they can run effectively here – – as they did last week – – they can keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines under a parka and that would be a good thing.

I think the Packers will have difficulty running the football here, but I do not think Aaron Rodgers will be shut down even if Jalen Ramsey dominates Davante Adams; I think the cold weather will limit Jared Goff to some extent so Cam Akers running the ball will be critical.  I like the Packers to win and cover at home in a low-scoring game; I also like the game to stay UNDER; put them in the Six-Pack. 

(Sat 8:15 PM EST)  Baltimore at Buffalo – 2.5 (49):  Frankly, I am looking forward to watching this game more than any of the others this weekend.  Both teams are peaking at the right time; the Ravens won 5 in a row at the end of the regular season and then won again last week; the Bills won 6 in a row at the end of the regular season and then won again last week.  The game will put on display two of the best young QBs in the league.  Now, as good as both young QBs are, I do not think either one is the key to this game:

• The Ravens are a running team.  They can run inside with power and they can run outside with speed.
• The Bills are mediocre defending against the run.  They ranked 17^th in rushing defense over the regular season which sounds workable, but they also ranked 25^th in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.6).
• I have no expectation that the Bills can stop the Ravens’ running attack; the question is if the Bills’ defense can keep it from dominating the game.  Moreover, they will need to devise a way to do that which does not simultaneously allow Lamar Jackson to go off.

I almost do not want to make a selection here because I want to focus on the events of this game without having even as trivial a “rooting interest” as one of these Six-Pack selections.  However, that would violate the spirit of these Football Fridays so, here goes …  It does not look as if the weather in Buffalo will be a factor; I like the Ravens to win the game outright and so I will take them plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack. 

(Sun 3:05 PM EST)  Cleveland at KC – 10.5 (56.5):  Anyone who reads these Football Friday missives knows that I hate picking NFL games with double-digit spreads.  The Browns will certainly try to control the clock here with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt carrying the ball.  The Chiefs will do what the Chiefs always do; they will score points.  If the Browns fall behind, I think it is game over; if the Browns get a lead and can run the ball to milk the clock …  The Browns and Chiefs allowed the same number of yards to opponents this season (actually the Chiefs allowed 2 fewer yards total for the season but let us not pick nits).  However, the Browns’ pass defense was not particularly good ranking 22^nd in the NFL regular season.  If Ben Roethlisberger could score 37 points last week and throw for 501 yards, what might be expected from Patrick Mahomes here?

• [Aside:  Back in their college days, Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) and Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) faced each other one time.  In that game the two combined for 1279 yards passing in only 4 quarters of football.  Baker Mayfield and the Sooners won that game 66-59.  That will not be the outcome here…]

The Browns’ win last week over the Steelers was an emotional victory.  They beat their biggest rival in the team’s first playoff game in next to forever; they did it with their coach in quarantine and on the road.  Just looking at the players on the sidelines at the end of the game, you could see the emotion in their eyes.  So, is the game this week possibly a let-down from that emotional high?

Because I hate double-digit spreads, I will forego a selection against the spread; I do think there will be a lot of scoring here so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack. 

(Sun 6:40 PM EST)  Tampa Bay at New Orleans – 3 (51.5):  The spread here opened the week as a pick ’em game but settled in at this level in mid-week.  This is the third time this year we can watch Tom Brady and Drew Brees ply their trade in the same game; the Saints prevailed in the first two meetings.  The Saints’ defense ranked 4^th in the NFL for the regular season in total defense and 5^th in the NFL in pass defense; they only allowed 217 yards per game in 2020.  In both games this year, the Saints’ offense has been productive scoring 34 points in one game and 38 in the other.  Having pointed out the Saints’ advantages here, let me also say that the Saints in 2020 are not a team designed to be able to come from behind; they normally do not produce lots of big plays in a game; they win by efficiency.  So here is a key question for the Saints if they are to be the winner of this game:

• Can you avoid a sluggish start to the game that puts you behind by two scores early on?

The Bucs’ pass defense ranked 21^st in the NFL this year giving up 246.6 yards per game; that unit can be exploited as was demonstrated by Taylor Heinicke last week ( see above).  TV announcers like to say that it is difficult for a team to beat another team three times in a season.  However, here is a stat that I ran across this week:

• Since 1990, teams that beat an opponent twice in a regular season were 12-5 against that same opponent when they met a third time in the playoffs.

I think Tom Brady is the better QB in this game; I also think the Saints are the better team in this game and football is a team game.  I like the Saints to win and cover at home; and I like the game to go OVER; put those in the Six Pack.

            So, let me recap this week’s Six-Pack – – which conveniently contains six selections:

1. Packers – 6.5 over Rams
2. Packers/Rams UNDER 46.5
3. Ravens + 2.5 against Bills
4. Browns/Chiefs OVER 56.5
5. Saints – 3 over Bucs
6. Saints/Bucs OVER 51.5

            Finally, the Bills will be relying on Stefon Diggs to be a weapon in their game against the Ravens this weekend.  Here is a comment related to Diggs from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Cameras caught wideout Stefon Diggs flossing on the sideline in the Bills’ regular-season finale.

“Forget All-Pro — he’s an ADA first-stringer!”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

James Harden got his wish; the Houston Rockets traded him to the Brooklyn Nets as the headline for a deal that involves 4 teams – Rockets, Nets, Cavaliers and Pacers.  This trade gives the Nets a “Big 3” alignment of Durant, Harden and Irving – – when Irving can get himself focused on basketball and not outside issues.  This trade signals that the Nets are focused on winning a championship now – or very shortly into the future.  Here are the highlights of the trade:

• Rockets get Rodions Kurocs, Dante Exum, Victor Oladipo and four unprotected first-round picks (Brooklyn 2022, 2024 and 2026, Milwaukee 2022), and four unprotected first-round pick swaps (2021, 2023, 2025, 2027).
• Nets get James Harden.

Let me start with the Rockets.  This puts them in an interesting “tear down and rebuild mode”.  Kurocs and Exum are role players; Kurocs is only 22 years old so he has room to “develop” but the odds are that he will bounce around the league as a throw-in for a variety of trades over the years.  Exum is in his mid-20s and is sort of in the same position.  Oladipo is an All-Star when he is healthy – – but he is not always healthy.  If you pair him with John Wall,  you have two players who are All-Stars when healthy – – but neither is always healthy.  Wall and Oladipo should prevent the Rockets from being awful – – but nothing more than that.

The Rockets, however, now have the draft capital for a rebuild.  It may appear at first that those first-round draft swaps are of no value since the Nets look to be very good and drafting at the bottom of the first round.  That is almost certainly true for 2021 and 2023, but as the Nets’ “Big 3” start to age, those swaps in 2025 and 2027 might develop some value.

The Nets are clearly in “Win Now Mode”.  Back in December when the first rumblings of “Harden to the Nets” was the headline story in NBA circles, I said that it would be a risky move for the Nets for two reasons:

1. Harden and Irving both want/need the ball to be as effective as they can be.  Durant does not need the ball as much as the other two, but he is more efficient offensively than the other two in the sense that he scores a lot of points with the ball in his hands for a relatively short time.  There is an unalterable fact about NBA basketball that applies here.  There is only one ball in use on the court at any given time.  We will soon find out if James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant learned their lessons about “sharing with others” in kindergarten.
2. Defense is secondary in the NBA; please do not try to convince me otherwise.  Having said that, two of the Nets’ “Big 3” exhibit nonchalance on defense over and above the typical lack of enthusiasm for that part of the game.  Durant will play defense – and will have to against teams with topflight centers and power forwards – but that will limit his offensive production.  When he is on the bench …  Back in December, I said that the Nets’ opponents might be able to score as if it were a layup line.

[Aside: For anyone who wagers on NBA games – I do not! – let me suggest that you consider betting OVER in Nets’ games for a week or two until the “market adjusts” to the new scoring potential married with the new defensive liabilities of the Nets.]

I think the most important “intangible” in this trade is that James Harden gives the Nets a measure of insurance for those times when Kyrie Irving takes time off for injury and/or personal reasons.  Over the last 3 NBA seasons, Irving has missed 87 games; so far this season, Irving has missed 6 of the 13 games on the Nets’ schedule.

If you believe that talent dominates everything else in the NBA, the Nets now must be the Eastern Conference favorites and – on a talent basis – on the same level as the Lakers out west.  If you believe that offense is only part of the NBA game, you might see a few smudges on the shiny new toy in Brooklyn.

In other NBA happenings, the league is having difficulties with the coronavirus.  Last season, the NBA was immensely successful with its “Orlando Bubble”; it finished off a regular season and ran a full complement of playoff games with only minimal overlap with the virus.  It was an unadulterated success from a scheduling, health and safety standpoint.  However, the main defense against the virus provided by the “Bubble” was the strict control over the people and the products that crossed the isolation boundary of the “Bubble”.  In the current season, that isolation boundary does not exist.

This NBA season began on December 22^nd; the first NBA game that had to be postponed happened on December 23^rd; as of this morning seven games have been postponed and two more games scheduled for tomorrow are going to be postponed.  That will make 9 games in 24 days that had to be scrapped due to the virus.

Obviously, there needed to be some form of tightening up the COVID-19 protocols currently in place if the league is to avoid either a hiatus or a shortened version of its already truncated season.  At the current pace of postponements, there could be a scheduling crisis at the end of the season resembling the Gordian Knot.

Earlier this week, the league and the players have agreed to some new restrictions to try to limit the virus.  They are well-intentioned; they will mitigate the problem if they are followed strictly.  Aye, there’s the rub…

• Players and staff are not to leave their residences when the team is at home except for outside exercise, emergencies, essential services and team activities at the team facility.
• Anyone who visits the residence of a player or staff member on a regular basis – – like a personal chef – – must be tested for COVID-19 twice a week.
• Pre-game meetings in the locker rooms are limited to 10 minutes and everyone must be masked.
• Players cannot arrive at a game venue more than 3 hours in advance of tip-off.
• On an airplane, players can only sit next to a teammate whom they will sit next to on the bench.
• “Extended socializing” with players on opposing teams is “discouraged”.
• Mask wearing rules are extended.
• If a player or staff member tests positive for COVID-19, the league can mandate twice -a-day testing for players and staff in lieu of the standard daily testing set forth in the protocols.

Finally, yesterday I mentioned the contract extension between Jim Harbaugh and the University of Michigan.  Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times had this take on that event:

“Jim Harbaugh has reached an incentive-laced contract extension to coach Michigan football through the 2025 season.

“No truth to the rumor that Ohio State boosters bankrolled the whole thing.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I want to spend today considering “media overreaction”.  There seems to be an inability to take an event and look at it analytically/dispassionately and then report on its meaning and its place in the gestalt of the moment.  Rather than treating many events in that manner, the more likely path for the story to follow is to report it; blow it out of proportion and then move on to the next “breaking news”.

Here in Curmudgeon Central, we deal with sports; therefore, I will refrain today from any remarks about all the “breaking news” that comes to us on those cable channels that try to represent themselves as “news outlets” when, in fact, they spend most of their time creating and pushing a narrative of their own and then reporting on events in a way to fit their chosen narrative. Today I just want to focus on a singular instance of a sports event and its overblown coverage.

The event took place just after the Washington WTFs beat the Eagles in Week 17 of the NFL season and Chase Young “pranced” off the field shouting that he wanted Tom Brady and that he was coming for Tom Brady – – referring to the playoff game that was to take place the following week.  Far too many sports outlets took that event and ran with it – – in a variety of directions.

• Direction #1:  This is a brash young man who does not know what he is getting himself into by calling out “The GOAT”.  Be careful what you wish for, young man…
• Direction #2:  This is a demonstration of his leadership qualities; it is why he was named as a team captain in his first year; we should lump him in with historical figures such as General Patton in terms of leadership qualities…
• Direction #3:  This is what you expect from a great player – – parentheses Chase Young is a great player – – and he is following in the footsteps of great defensive players in the past on his way to glory…

Just maybe, the more accurate “direction” for this story to have taken would have been that this is a 21-year-old young man who is exuberant and who realized in that moment that he and his team had made the playoffs and he knew that he would face the Bucs and Tom Brady the next week.   And what he did on his way to the locker room was not a momentous event; it was the venting of his exuberance – be it rational or irrational exuberance.  (Hat Tip to Alan Greenspan)

Frankly, I think all three of those storyline vectors above are flawed in some way but #3 is either wishful thinking on the part of the commentators or idolatry on their part.  Having seen Chase Young play in most of his NFL games, let me offer a dispassionate assessment of his position in the hierarchy of great NFL defensive players past and present:

• First, it is too early to know if he belongs in the pantheon of great defensive players.  Having said that, he is awfully good, and he gives great effort on every play.  I doubt that there is any team in the league that would not be happy to have him on its roster for 2021 and subsequent years.
• Now, I have heard his name put in the same context and even in the same sentence with Ray Lewis and Reggie White.  And that is where I get off this train.  Perhaps about a decade into the future, Chase Young will have earned his place in that sort of conversation, but to put him there now is premature idolatry on the part of the person(s) making the comparison.

Let us take a quick peek at the stats…

• As a 21-year-old rookie, Chase Young played in 15 regular season games.  He had 7.5 sacks, 32 solo tackles, 12 assisted tackles and 12 QB Hits.
• He also played in that one playoff game he was so exuberant about.  In that game he was much closer to a “non-factor” than he was to an NFL legend; he had 1 solo tackle and 2 assisted tackles and was on the field for 65 defensive plays.
• That’s all there is…

So far, Chase Young is not remotely in the class of the best of the elite defensive players in NFL history such as Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Dick Butkus, Mean Joe Greene and/or Deacon Jones.  Any continuation of this sort of idolatry runs the risk of labeling Young as a “guy who never reached his potential” which would be unfortunate because he did show enough to indicate that he will be a very good NFL defensive player at the very least.

The same thing goes for great leadership skills.  Skipping off the field one time and “calling out Tom Brady” one time does not put him in the same class with Ray Lewis, Sam Mills, London Fletcher or Brian Urlacher.  Give this guy some time and some room to do something that exhibits REAL leadership before anointing him as a great leader.

A former colleague of mine often made this distinction between management and leadership; he said:

“Managers do things right; leaders do the right things.”

I do not think that is a perfect distinction/delineation, but it is part of the essence of leadership along with a dose of an ability to inspire others to perform at maximum level.  Chase Young played well in 2021; as I said, he would be welcome on all 32 NFL rosters.  But other than a lot of hopping around and rah-rah demonstrations and photobombing others, I did not see anything that suggested – –  “Ray Lewis”.

Finally, Albert Einstein – someone who was and still is idolized to some degree by a segment of the population – had this to say about idolatry:

“Everyone should be respected as an individual, but no one idolized.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Tommy Lasorda died over the weekend at the age of 93.  He was originally signed by the Phillies as a minor league player but then released.  The then-Brooklyn Dodgers picked him up in the late 1940s and he spent the rest of his life with the Dodgers’ organization save for one year when he was sold or traded 3 times and wound up back with the Dodgers.  From there he became their coach or manager from 1973 to 1996.  After retiring from baseball, he became a de facto ambassador for the sport itself.

Rest in peace, Tommy Lasorda.

Even though that introductory note is somewhat dispiriting, let me stick to the topic of baseball this morning.  MLB has been on hiatus for two-and-a-half months since the end of the World Series in October.  In “normal times” we would be about a month away from “pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training” and there would have already been a lot of trades and free agent signings on the books by now.  That is not nearly the case in January 2021; there have been two “significant” trades and a free agent signing or two, but much of the expected news from the “Hot Stove League” has been silent.

The “party line” for the 2021 MLB season is that it will start on April 1^st and will run for a full 162 games.  That pronouncement was made last July even before the truncated 2020 season began.  A lot has happened since then and we have – presumably – learned a thing or two about “staging sporting events in a pandemic” since then.  There has been talk of delaying the start of the season until May and playing only 120 – 140 games for the regular season.  Naturally, the players’ union opposes that proposal so there is still some uncertainty as to when the season will begin and how long it will run.

[Aside:  I swear that the MLBPA would oppose a cancer cure if the MLB owners “invented” it and the MLB owners would do the same if the situation were reversed.]

Allow me to toss another coal into the “Hot Stove” here and cite an item from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot recently:

“Waiting game: Major League Baseball is taking its time deciding whether the National League will use the designated hitter this season, making it difficult for teams to know whom to acquire. It’s as if Commissioner Rob Manfred is begging for more bad publicity.”

In that backdrop of uncertainty, there have been two offseason trades labeled as “blockbusters”, one other trade that could be interesting in retrospective and a lot of hemming-and-hawing on the free agent market:

• “Blockbuster” #1:  This move is actually two moves that were made so close in time that they appear to have been part of a grand scheme.  The San Diego Padres acquired Blake Snell from the Rays and Yu Darvish from the Cubs in about 24 hours.  The Padres sent 4 prospects to the Rays for Snell and four more prospects to the Cubs for Darvish.  [Aside:  The Padres also signed a highly sought-after Korean infielder, Ha-Seong Kim.]  It would appear that the Padres are taking aim at the Dodgers’ hegemony in the NL West.  Interestingly, these moves might make it seem as if other teams in the NL West are far off the pace.  If that is the case, might that lead the Rockies to want to trade Nolan Arenado?  Now, that would produce a “blockbuster” swap…
• “Blockbuster” #2:  The Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians for two minor leaguers and two young players who have been OK for the Mets at the major-league level but nothing more than that.  It is hard for me to think that this is much more than a salary dump by the Indians because the talent levels of the players involved are not nearly in balance.
• Potentially interesting trade:  The Nats acquired Josh Bell from the Pirates.  Bell had a disappointing season – to say the least – in 2020 but he made the All-Star team in 2019 and he is only 28 years old.  To acquire Bell, the Nats gave up two minor league pitchers.  Is Bell an “All-Star caliber player” or was 2019 a mirage?  Could be interesting…

There are more than a hundred free agents out there who remain unsigned.  Some of them will fade into oblivion as their careers come to an end, but there are plenty of valuable assets out there on the market – – and we are theoretically only a month away from the start of Spring Training.  I will list here only a dozen that I think should be interesting to more than a few teams:

1. Trevor Bauer – Starting pitcher
2. Jackie Bradly Jr. – Outfielder
3. Alex Colome – Reliever
4. Didi Gregorius – Shortstop
5. DJ LaMehieu – Second baseman
6. Jake Odorizzi – Starting pitcher
7. Marcel Ozuna – Outfielder
8. JT Realmuto – Catcher
9. George Springer – Outfielder
10. Marcus Stroman – Starting pitcher
11. Masahiro Tanaka – Starting Pitcher
12. Justin Turner – Third baseman

We are fast approaching the time when Scott Boras will emerge from wherever he spends his time to announce that the lack of offers in the free agent marketplace – – particularly the lack of offers to his clients – – is proof positive of owner collusion. If history is a guide, he will offer hearsay evidence at best to support his collusion theories and the baseball writers will report them lending various levels of credulity to them.  And then they will evaporate until late next January…

Finally, let me close today with a note from longtime Dodgers’ infielder, Steve Garvey, about Tommy Lasorda:

“Lasorda’s standard reply when some new kid would ask directions to the whirlpool was to tell him to stick his foot in the toilet and flush it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………