The baseball season is upon us; in fact, there have already been two regular season games played in Japan. And so, it is time for some predictions about how all of this will turn out come the end of September 2025. Let me begin in the American League:
- AL East: The loss of Gerrit Cole for the Yankees’ rotation is a huge blow; I think it will cost the Yankees the division title. Added to the loss of Cole is the loss of Juan Soto to free agency and the loss of Giancarlo Stanton to nagging injuries for at least the start of the season. The Orioles and the Red Sox are poised to pass the Yankees here; it is almost a coin flip for me, so I’ll take the Red Sox to win the division with the Orioles finishing second. The Blue Jays are not going to contend for the division for long this season, but the Jays might hold the wild card for another team to win the World Series this year if they decide to trade Vlad Guererro Jr. after failing to get him signed to a long-term deal.
- AL Central: This is the most difficult division to unwrap. Other than picking the White Sox to finish last, I can talk myself into just about any order you want to propose for the four teams above the White Sox. So, let me stare into my cloudy crystal ball to foresee this outcome:
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- Tigers
- Twins
- Guardians
- Royals
- White Sox
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- AL West: I like the Mariners and the Rangers to fight it out in the AL West; I think the Astros’ hegemony in the division is waning significantly. The Astros will not finish last because the Angels and the A’s will outstrip the Astros in the race to the bottom. Give me the Rangers to win the division…
- AL Wildcard Teams: I like the Orioles, the Mariners and the Astros to fill out the AL Playoff slots.
Crossing over to the National League:
- NL East: The Mets made the biggest splash in this offseason acquiring the services of Juan Soto for a significant fraction of a billion dollars. Nevertheless, I don’t think that is enough to make the Mets the best team in the division because I think both the Braves and the Phillies are better. If the adage that “good pitching will stifle good hitting” holds true this year, the Phillies should win the division so long as their bullpen does not implode. The Braves and Phillies should take this down to the wire and I’ll take the Phillies to win the division. The Nationals will probably finish fourth even though they may be the most improved team in the division simply because it is crowded in the top three slots. Remember the name, James Wood; he may not be an All-Star this year, but he is going to be the foundation piece of the Nats starting very soon. The Marlins will be last in the division.
- NL Central: The Cubs and the Brewers are the best teams here. It has been a while since the Cubs won the division, so let me pick the Cubs here by a nose over the Brewers. When that comes to pass, credit the Cubbies’ braintrust for acquiring Kyle Tucker in the offseason as the basis for their division win. The Pirates will be interesting every five days or so when Paul Skenes gets the start. On the other four days, the Pirates will be less than interesting. What to make of the Reds and the Cardinals? Good question; I can see both teams finishing third in the division and I can see both teams finishing last. You make the call…
- NL West: My most confident pick for the season is for the White Sox to finish last in the AL Central; only a hair’s width behind that prediction in terms of confidence is that the Dodgers will win the NL West, and the Rockies will finish last in the NL West. The D-Backs addition of Corbin Burnes gives them the edge for finishing second in the division. Toss a coin between the Giants and the Padres for third place here.
- NL Wildcard Teams: Give me the Braves, the D-Backs and the Mets as the rest of the NL Playoffs this year.
In terms of betting win totals for MLB this year, here are five selections:
- Red Sox OVER 86.5 wins
- Yankees UNDER 90.5 wins
- Mariners OVER 84.5 wins
- Cubs OVER 85.5 wins
- Rangers OVER 85.5 wins
And here is an odd line that looks as if it is set to lure folks in.
- White Sox win total = 53.5 wins
To play this as an UNDER bet, you are saying that the White Sox will finish 2025 with a record of 53-109 – – or worse. Your first glance says that is a horrendous record; how likely is it for a team to lose that many games? Then, you take a look at the 2024 final standings and note that the White Sox lost 121 games meaning that the putative record of 53-109 would represent an improvement of 12 wins year-over-year. That is a big difference for a team that projects to be slightly better than putrid for 2025. My suggestion is to take note of this win total wager and track it for the season – – but keep your money in your pocket.
Finally, this from Henry Aaron:
“It took me seventeen years to get three thousand hits in baseball. I did it in one afternoon on the golf course.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………