The Sports Curmudgeon

This is the next-to-last Football Friday for the season; my long-suffering wife suggested that I would be happy to see all of that “deadline pressure” finished until late next summer.  She doesn’t understand the rhythm and the focus that Football Friday brings to the table.  I will actually miss doing these after next week.

As usual, I shall begin here with the results from last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads and Totals:              2-0-0
• Season to Date:                     42-43-2

And …

• Money Line Parlays:             0-1                   Loss = $100
• Season to Date:                     17-26               Profit = $357

  

College Football Commentary:

The TV numbers are in for the CFP Championship Game between Indiana and Miami, and the numbers are most impressive.  I have no idea how the Nielsen folks make their determinations of audience size, but here are the data:

• Average viewing audience = 30.1million viewers
• Peak viewing audience = 33.2 million viewers

Even if those numbers are inflated somehow by 25%, that is still a huge TV audience for a game involving one team that is the antitheses of a “college football blueblood.”  According to one report I read, this was the largest TV audience for something other than an NFL telecast since Game 7 of the 2016 MLB World Series.  In case you don’t immediately recall that watershed event, it was the Chicago Cubs that won that Game 7 over the Cleveland Guardians giving the Cubbies their first World Championship since 1908  Oh, by the way, that baseball game went into “OT” or extra innings as they call it in baseball.

NFL Commentary: 

The Baltimore Ravens hired Jesse Minter to be the successor to John Harbaugh in “Charm City”.  I am not going to pretend to know a lot about Jesse Minter other than to say that he was the Defensive Coordinator for the Chargers in the 2024 and 2025 seasons.  It would be difficult to suggest that he was a failure in that role.  One thing is certain in that hiring decision; the Ravens’ coach should bring a much younger perspective to the job than did John Hartbaugh:

• John Harbaugh will be 64 years old in September 2026
• Jesse Minter will be 43 years old in May 2026

Meanwhile, the Steelers hired Mike McCarthy as their new head coach.  That decision represents two major deviations for the Steelers franchise:

1. Steelers’ coaches have been on the job for 15 years or more since the late 1960s.  Mike McCarthy will be 63 years old in November 2026; I would not be penciling him in as the Steelers’ head coach come 2040.
2. Mike McCarthy is basically an “offensive guy”.  The last two Steelers’ coaches – – Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher – – have been “defensive guys” who have set up the image and the narrative of Steelers’ teams since 1992.

The Cleveland Browns hired Todd Monken as their head coach.  His calling card is as an offensive coordinator; some if not all of his recent success in Baltimore has to be attributed to Lamar Jackson playing the QB position.  I am not a Shedeur Sanders’ hater, but I cannot bring myself to think that Monken will have the same talent level at QB in Cleveland that he did in Baltimore for the last few years.  Then again, Monken is 60 years old and this is his first NFL head coaching gig; it’s not like he is looking at this job as a stepping stone leading to another 25 years in the league.

The Buffalo Bills promoted from within and have hired Joe Brady as their new head coach; Brady has been the offensive coordinator in Buffalo for the last two years.  His ascension to the top job can be seen as organizational stability if that is what you want to see.  However, something about that decision makes little sense to me:

• In explaining why ownership fired Sean McDermott, one of the major points made was that the owner sensed a hugely negative vibe in the losing locker room after the Bills lost to the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the playoffs this year.
• Let me assume that the owner(s) indeed sensed all that and that the owner(s) concluded that something had to change and then decided that it was the coach that had to change and not the players or the GM or any other factotum in the organization.
• OK, so riddle me this…?  Joe Brady was part of the coaching staff in Buffalo in a variety of roles since 2022.  How does he represent an organizational reset to change the vibe in the locker room?

Unless I missed something recently, there are still two open jobs as the head coaches of NFL teams.  The Cards and the Raiders are still prowling about looking for a new leader.  Those are two BAD jobs.

• Neither team has a bona fide QB.  I think the Kyler Murray Era in Arizona is over and even if the Raiders draft Fernando Mendoza, it will be a while until he possibly leads them to respectability as measured these days by a 9-8-0 record.
• The Cards spent a lot of money on their defense in the last offseason and it led to nothing formidable on the field.
• The Raiders have – in my opinion – 4 players on their roster who could be considered “difference makers” if they were not the only players on the roster who were competent pro players.
• Any coach taking either of those jobs needs to be sure that his agent has an iron-clad clause in there to assure full payment of the deal when – not if – this new coach gets shown the door.

Just for fun, please consider these two coaching records:

• Coach A:  Nine years with the same team; five times in the playoffs; regular season record = 82-67-0; playoff record = 9-5.
• Coach B:  Nine years with the same team; eight times in the playoffs; regular season record = 98-50-0; playoff record = 8-8.

            Those two résumés are comparable.

• Coach B is Sean McDermott who was just fired after losing a playoff game by a field goal.
• Coach A is Kyle Shanahan whose team was clocked in this year’s playoffs by 5 TDs.
• Hmmm …

The Pro Bowl Games will happen this weekend and I will miss every moment of the “action”.  However, there is a comment that needs to be made here:

• It is finally time to apply euthanasia to the Pro Bowl and any of its variants such as a flag football game.
• Shedeur Sanders was just “elevated” to Pro Bowl status because Drake Maye is otherwise occupied by preparing for a Super Bowl game.
• Shedeur Sanders threw 7 TDs this year and 10 INTs.
• Shedeur Sanders is in the Pro Bowl over the likes of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and/or Trevor Lawrence.  Don’t bother comparing those QB stats with Sanders’ stats.  Oh, and if some NFL “official” says that the likes of Burrow, Jackson and Lawrence were invited to be in the pro Bowl but declined, consider that those players are sending the same message to the league that I will send here – – only in not nearly so subtle terms:
  • • If such is the honor of “Pro Bowl Status” as of February 2026, the time has come to – – as George Burns used to say – – “say goodnight Gracie”.

Last week’s Games:

Pats 10  Broncos 7:  I said it at the time and I will say it again here; the game changed completely when the Broncos led 7-0 and had the ball 4^th and 1 at about the Pats’ 10-yardline – – and they went for it and failed instead of taking the chip shot field goal.  I don’t know what the analytics say in that situation and I don’t care what the analytics say in that situation, failing to take a two-score lead at that point in the game was a blunder.  For the last decade, the narrative has been that Sean Payton is an offensive genius and a play-caller extraordinaire.  Well not last week…

The Pats’ defense gave up one long completion to Jarrett Stidham in the first quarter and it led to the only score for the Broncos with 10:19 left in the first quarter.  From that point on, the Pats’ defense looked almost like the Steel Curtain Defense; the Broncos gained 59 yards on that early TD drive; for the game the Broncos gained a total of only 181 yards for the day.   Or maybe it was just that Jarrett Stidham demonstrated on a national stage just why he has been a career backup QB since coming to the league in 2019.

Having said all that, let me be clear that the Pats’ offense was not exactly humming along; the Pats Total Offense was a measly 206 yards in the game; that unit will need to do a lot better than that next week.

If you like punts and punt returns, this was a game for you; the teams combined to punt the ball 14 times.

 

Seahawks 31  Rams 27:  There was another play-calling blunder in this game too.  With about 5 minutes left in the game, the Rams had the ball at the Seahawks 6 yardline with a fourth-and-four trailing by 4 points.  Instead of taking the field goal and making it a ”field-goal game” as opposed to a “touchdown game”, the Rams went for it and failed.  [Anyone else see any parallelism here?].

Sam Darnold put to rest the critics for his stinker of a game in the playoffs last year with the Vikes; consider these stats:

• Darnold: 25 of 36 for 346 yards with 3 TDs and a passer rating of  127.8
• Stafford: 22 of 35 for 374 yards with 3 TDs and a passer rating of 127.6

Matthew Stafford might just be the league’s MVP this season and Sam Darnold was his equal on this day.  Moreover, in clutch situations, Darnold outplayed Stafford:

• Seahawks converted 7 of 13 third-down situations
• Rams converted 1 of 8 third-down situations.

There are no games this week.  Ergo, there is no “Betting Bundle” and the look-ahead to the Super Bowl – – nine days from now – – will have to wait until next Friday.

So let me close this next-to-last Football Friday with these words of wisdom from Bill Parcells:

“I think confrontation is healthy, because it clears the air very quickly.”

And …

“I can’t live my life worrying about something that might never happen.”

And …

“There are two things in New York, euphoria and disaster.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

The new inductees to the Pro Football Hall of Fame will not be officially announced until February 5^th; however, there are reports all over the Internet saying that the voters did not elect Bill Belichick in his first year of eligibility.  The backlash to that news – – I am assuming that it is correct – – has been wide-ranging from sports commentators (Ryan Clark) to Hall of Fame football players (JJ Watt/Tom Brady) to NBA stars (LeBron James).  I have not seen any mention of a US Senator taking the floor to speak on this matter yet; but do not rule it out.

I am of two minds on this:

1. Clearly, Bill Belichick’s coaching record is Hall of Fame worthy; if his record is deemed to be insufficient, then most coaches inducted into the Hall to date need to be expelled.  If this “omission” is corrected in the next year or two, then the voters who “blocked” his election this year can claim to have made a point regarding some of the scandals that tracked his career in New England.  And at that point, all will be well.
2. Alternatively, if this turns out to be nothing but pettiness on the part of media folks who covered the Pats during Belichick’s time there and who were “offended” by his conduct and demeanor in those required press conferences, then it is they who should be sanctioned or shunned.  Maybe – – I said maybe – – there is a case to be made for considering “scandals” in the voting process for the Hall of Fame but there is not room for pettiness or score-settling.

Moving on …  The Commissioners of five major professional sports were supposed to meet with President Trump earlier this week, but the meeting was postponed by the snow and ice event that crippled the DC area.  The agenda for the meeting was reported to be about sports events related to the celebration of the 250^th “birthday” of the United States in 2026.  We already know about two planned events:

1. There will be a UFC program held on the White House lawn on Flag Day.  The weigh-in for the fights will take place at the Lincoln Memorial [Please do not ask me to explain the reason for that.] and the fighters will make their way to the ring from the Oval Office [Why not?].
2. There will be a four-day event called “Patriot Games” featuring one boy and one girl from every state.  I have not seen any details as to what sort of competition(s) will happen at the Patriot Games so far.

Presumably, the President and the Commissioners will discuss any celebrations or festivities related to “America’s Birthday” that the leagues or the teams have planned.  The NFL has already announced some plans to have an “America 250” logo emblazoned on sidelines and coins for tossing and things of that nature.  I assume the other commissioners will arrive with ideas and pledges to do commemorative things during their seasons and at their high-profile events.

Switching gears …  Late last week, there were reports that the FBI had opened an investigation into the death of Indy Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay.  According to reports in the Washington Post, the investigation may also include Dr. Harry Haroutinian, an addiction specialist in California, who may have prescribed meds for Irsay prior to his passing.  No autopsy was done after Irsay’s death; that circumstance could lead investigators to seek an exhumation and a chemical analysis.  When Jim Irsay died, I said that he should rest in peace; an exhumation would interrupt that peace.

Finally, since I opened today with news about Bill Belichick, let me close with this from Coach Belichick:

“It’s not all about talent. It’s about dependability, consistency, and being able to improve. If you work hard and you’re coachable, and you understand what you need to do, you can improve.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Bum Phillips was the head coach of the Houston Oilers and in addition to coaching success, he was known for his quick wit and his responses to questions.  He always took his wife with him on road trips and when a reporter asked him why he did that, Bum Phillips said, “She’s too ugly to kiss goodbye.”  I mention that not to demean that attractiveness of Phillips’ wife but to present an omen of “ugly” today.  The plan is for me to go back to August 2025 and dig up my predictions for what was then the upcoming NFL season and present them for examination.  I fear it will be as ugly as a pimple on prom night.

Back in August, I broke my NFL predictions into 3 parts.

• Part One was “Coaches on a Hot Seat”.  Here is a link to that rant.
• Part Two was a synoptic view of the NFL upcoming season.  Here is a link to that rant.
• Part Three predicted the regular season records for all 32 NFL teams.  Here is a link to that rant.

Instead of simply naming six of seven coaches that I thought might get fired during or after the 2025 NFL season, I divided the 32 coaches up into 4 general categories.  Here is the aftermath:

• I had 10 coaches on a list I labeled “No Way They Get Fired”.  Well, two of them got fired – – John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott.  I am still surprised that those actions were taken.
• I had 7 coaches on a list I labeled “First Year on the Job” coaches and I figured all of them would be in safe jobs.  Pete Carroll’s job was one-and-done with the Raiders.  For the record, here is what I said about Carroll in Las Vegas:
  • • “Even Mark Davis is not dumb enough to fire someone of Carroll’s stature after one season on the job.  The Raiders were a significantly flawed roster last year; if Carroll can make the team into a “break-even proposition” this year he would be a first-class hero.”
• I had 7 coaches on a list I labeled “Don’t Expect Vulnerability Here But I Would Not Be Shocked Either”.   Raheem Morris was on that list; I thought he would be safe unless the Falcons record cratered; it did not and he did not survive.  Mike Tomlin was on that list too.  Here is what I said about Tomlin back then:
  • • “No, I have not ingested any hallucinogens today.  Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ organization are bedrock stability in the NFL structure and Mike Tomlin’s teams have never had a losing season over the last 18 seasons.  Looking at that record of success, one is probably surprised to learn that the Steelers last won a playoff game in 2016 and that the Steelers are 3-9 in the playoffs since the year they won the Super Bowl.”
• I had 8 coaches on a list I labeled “Coaches On A Hot Seat”.  Out of the eight coaches on the list, six were fired and the two that survived – – Shane Steichen and Zac Taylor are highly likely to be carried over to the same sort of list next August.

The firings of John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott were huge misses for me; even if I were rewriting that rant today, I might miss that sort of “postdiction”.  Regarding the Raiders and Pete Carroll, all I can say is that I probably underestimated the stupidity of Mark Davis.  And technically, Mike Tomlin was not fired by the Steelers; he “stepped down”.  I will not try to hide behind that labeling to claim I was correct back in August, but I did sense the issues that caused some in the Steelers’ fanbase to push for Tomlin’s departure.

In the synoptic view of the upcoming NFL season, the predictions were not as black-and-white as were predictions for coaches who would be fired or for the final records of all 32 teams.  Some of the comments therein, however, can be viewed as judgments as to how the season should unfold.

• I said 2025 would be an acid test for the Giants.  It was; their coach did not make it to Thanksgiving.  Moreover, I wondered:
  • • “Now imagine if you will the agita that would prevail in the Giants’ fanbase if Daniel Jones shows up in Indy and produces a Pro Bowl season that leads the Colts to the playoffs.  There might not be enough Pepto Bismol east of the Mississippi to cure that burning sensation…”
• I thought the Dolphins’ signing of Tua Tagovailoa to a nine-figure deal was risky.  It was and still is.
• I thought the Bills, Lions and Bengals were being overrated by pundits back in August. Many had the Bills as the favorites for the AFC Super Bowl slot; same for the Lions in the NFC.
• I thought the Cowboys and the Chargers were being underrated.  The Cowboys were not; the Chargers performed as well in 2025 as they had in 2024.
• I did not foresee the Pats going worst-to-first in their division last year.  Same goes for the Bears and the Panthers.  In my defense, I did call the Pats and the Bears to be significantly improved in 2025 and here is what I said about the Panthers:
  • • “The Panthers could be an interesting “Worst-To First” candidate if they find a way to shore up their defense which gave up 31.4 points per game in 2024.”
• I said that no team would go “first-to-worst” in 2025 – – and that was the case.  I said that the Chiefs, Eagles and Lions would regress in 2025 but not to the bottom of their divisions.

The synoptic view “predictions” were OK; looking back I could not find any monumental insights that I can point to positively nor can I find glaring omissions.  It was a fun way to think about the league and the upcoming season.  Last year was the first time I did anything like that; I will probably do it again in August – – Lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

And then of course, I exposed myself to significant ridicule by trying to predict the exact regular season record for every team in the NFL.  You think I would have learned by now to avoid such future embarrassment, but I seem to be addicted to that undertaking.  There are certainly worse addictions; the only damage done to me by these predictions is to my self-esteem.

I’ll start in the AFC West.  I said the Composite Division Record would be 40-28-0.  It was only 34-34-0.

• Chargers 12-5-0.  They finished 11-6-0.  I had them winning the division and they finished second.
• Chiefs 11-6-0.  I said they would regress and suffer “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome”.  They were 15-2-0 in 2024 and did indeed regress all the way down to 6-11-0.  I had the Chiefs in the playoffs; they were not there.
• Broncos 10-7-0:  They finished 14-3-0 and won the division.
• Raiders 7-10-0.  They finished 3-14-0 and looked every bit as bad as that record might indicate.

            For the AFC South, I said the Composite Division Record would be a meager 31-37-0. It was 36-32-0.

• Texans 9-8-0.  They finished 12-5-0 and they won their last 9 games in a row.
• Colts 8-9-0.  They finished exactly 8-9-0 but did so in a most unusual way by losing their last 7 games in a row after Daniel Jones was injured.
• Jags 8-9-0.  They finished 13-4-0, won the division and made the playoffs.  And they achieved their playoff status by winning their last 8 games in a row.
• Titans 6-11-0.  They finished 3-14-0.  I said there the Titans needed to start well of they might have a coaching change in their BYE Week in Week 10.  That coaching change came earlier than that.

            In the AFC North, I had the Composite Division Record set at 34-34-0.  It was 29-39-0.

• Ravens 11-6-0.  They finished 8-9-0 and missed the playoffs.  Lamar Jackson’s injury status contributed to that “underachievement” but so did the Ravens’ miserable defense that gave up 23.5 points per game.
• Bengals 10-7-0.  They finished 6-11-0.  Joe Burrow could only play in 8 games in 2025; that did not benefit the Bengals’ fortunes even a little bit.
• Steelers 8-9-0.  They finished 10-7-0 and won the division on the final day of the season.
• Browns 5-12-0.  They finished exactly 5-12-0.

And in the AFC East, I had the Composite Division record set at 32-36-0.  It was 36-32-0.

• Bills 11-6-0.  They finished 12-5-0, which was not good enough to win the division.
• Dolphins 8-9-0.  They finished 7-10-0.
• Pats 7-10-0.  They finished 14-3-0 – – won the division and will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  I said they would improve and I said “…I expect Mike Vrabel to field a different sort of team in New England from what fans saw last season.”  However, I did not expect the “difference” and the “improvement” to be that dramatic.
• Jets 6-11-0.  They finished 3-14-0.  In mid-season they traded away their two best defenders to set up for a major restocking of the roster with draft picks come April; the Jets draft #2 overall and have lots of picks stored away.

            In the NFC, I’ll start with the NFC West where I had the Composite Division Record at 36-32-0.  It was 41-27-0.  [Aside: Get set for some belly-laughs when you see these predictions.]

• Cards 10-7-0.  They finished 3-14-0.  Yes, I actually thought they would win the division …
• Rams 9-8-0.  They finished 12-5-0.  I “marked them down” because in August it was not clear if Matthew Stafford’s back would allow him to play much in 2025.  And then he played at an “MVP-level”.
• Niners 9-8-0.  They finished 12-5-0.  They made the playoffs and won a first-round game there.
• Seahawks 8-9-0.  They finished 14-3-0; they won their last 7 games in a row and will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

            Next up is the NFC South.  I set the Composite Division Record there at 27-41-0.  It was 30-38-0.

• Bucs 10-7-0.  They finished 8-9-0 and missed the playoffs on tiebreakers.
• Falcons 8-9-0.  They finished exactly 8-9-0 but it took a final four-game winning streak to achieve that level of mediocrity.
• Panthers 6-11-0.  They finished 8-9-0.  That got them into the playoffs as the division champs despite that losing record.
• Saints 3-14-0.  They finished 6-11-0.

In the NFC North, I thought the Composite Division Record would be 35-33-0.  It was 38-29-1.

• Packers 10-7-0.  They finished 9-7-1.  I thought that would give the Packers the division title; it did not.
• Lions 10-7-0.  They finished 9-8-0.  I had the Lions in the playoffs as a wildcard team; they did not make the playoffs.
• Vikes 8-9-0.  They finished 9-8-0.
• Bears 7-10-0.  They finished 11-6-0; they won the division; they made the playoffs and they went “worst-to-first” in the division.

Last, in the NFC East, I had the Composite Division Record as 36-32-0.  It was 27-30-1.

• Eagles 12-5-0. They finished 11-6-0.  That was good enough for them to win the division.
• Commanders 10-7-0.  They finished 5-12-0.  I predicted a regression from 2024, but I did not count on Jayden Daniels missing 9 games for the season.
• Cowboys 8-9-0.  They finished 7-9-1.
• Giants 4-13-0.  They finished exactly at 4-13-0.

            Looking at this overall, the categorization of the coaches was good; the two major misses were not things that many others would have predicted in August 2025.  I would give that set of predictions an “A-minus”.

For the synoptic view of the 2025 season, I would call it more of a success than a failure.  From an academic standpoint, let me give myself a “B”.

            About the prediction of exact records for the 32 NFL teams, let me go easy on myself and not rate those as a complete and abject failure.  I’ll give myself a “D-minus” which is a passing grade meaning I can move on to the next level which will be similar predictions of exact records next August.  Why not?

Finally, I am not really masochistic at heart, but I have always liked this line about masochists from Steven Wright:

“When an evil masochist dies, does he go to Hell, or would Heaven be a better punishment?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Back in August, I did my annual “look-ahead” to the upcoming football season for college football and the NFL.  Lots of other folks do that; the difference between me and most others is that when January/February rolls around, I go back and review my foresight and present it to the world in the same fashion as the original “look-ahead”.  Today, I’ll deal with the college football preview; here is the link should you want to verify my evaluation.

I identified 6 coaches on a hot seat:

1. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin:  He survived despite a 4-8 overall record.
2. Hugh Freeze – Auburn:  He was fired in mid-November.
3. Mike Gundy – Oklahoma St.:  He was fired after only 3 games in the 2025 season.
4. Brian Kelly – LSU:  He was fired in October.
5. Mike Norvell – Florida St.:  He survived despite a 5-7 record (2-6 in conference).
6. Brent Venables – Oklahoma:  The Sooners were 10-3 last year; Venables easily survived.

            I am not ashamed of that list; three entries there did not make it to the end of the season, and two others had losing seasons but avoided the executioner.  On the other hand, I was nowhere near foreseeing the departure of James Franklin from Penn State.

I did highlight two other “coaching questions” in August:

• Rich Rogriguez:  He returned to West Virginia where he had success from 2000 to 2007; I asked if he could “go home again”.  Well, the Mountaineers’ record in 2025 was only 4-8 (2-7 in conference) which is not going to warrant a parade in Morgantown, WV, but he will be back to coach again next season.
• Sherrone Moore:  I wondered if there would be “another shoe to drop” regarding the Michigan sign-stealing incidents.  Well, a bunch of shoes dropped on Coach Moore that got him fired including an arrest and a court appearance for things much worse than sign-stealing.

            I said I would be interested to see how UNC did in its first year with Bill Belichick on the sideline.  The Tar Heels were 6-7 before Belichick arrived; last year they went 4-8; let me be polite and say it was an inauspicious season in Chapel Hill, NC.

I wondered how Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes would do in the wake of Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders leaving for the NFL.  In 2024, Colorado was 9-4 for the season and 7-2 in Big 12 Conference games.  As is to be expected, the loss of two talented players like Hunter and Sanders had a significant negative effect on team success; in 2025, Colorado was 3-9 overall and 1-8 in Big 12 Conference games.

            My sleeper team for the season was Georgia Tech; they finished with a record of 9-4 (6-2 in conference) and got themselves a bowl bid.  I would say that I hit on that one.

I made 8 predictions on OVER/UNDER total wins for the season:

1. BC UNDER 6 wins – – BD won 2 games in 2025.  Win!
2. Ga Tech OVER 7 wins – – Tech won 9 games in 2025.  Win!
3. Purdue UNDER 3.5 wins – – Purdue won 2 games in 2025.  Win!
4. Stanford UNDER 4 wins – – Stanford won exactly 4 games in 2025.  Push!
5. Texas OVER 9.5 wins – – Texas won 10 games in 2025.  Win!
6. Texas Tech OVER 8.5 wins – – Tech won 12 games in 2025.  Win!
7. UMass UNDER 3.5 wins – – UMass won ZERO games in 2025.  Win!
8. UNLV OVER 8.5 wins – – UNLV won 10 games in 2025.  Win!

Let me take a bow here; those predictions came out 7 wins, no losses and one push; I would be happy to take that record to the bank every season!

This is not a normal “performance review” for one of my football “look-ahead” rants; in fact, it might be the best one ever for me.  So, I’ll bask in the glory of this one and grit my teeth as I look forward to tomorrow and the NFL predictions.  I have not peeked, but I doubt that tomorrow’s review will be nearly as positive.

Finally, let me close with this question posed by Will Rogers:

“If Stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

One famous line from George Orwell’s novel, Animal Farm, has to do with the animals’ status once the revolution got rid of Mr. Jones, the cruel farmer who exploited the animals:

“All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”

Even though I have nothing on my mind this morning related to farming or farm animals, I see a parallel here to the election of Carlos Beltran to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  It seems that there are offenses to the rules of baseball, but some are more forgivable than others.

Recall that Beltran was a central figure in the investigation into the Houston Astros “trashcan banging” scheme that tipped off hitters to upcoming pitches.  Sign stealing is not notorious; using the electronic feed in the home field exclusively for the home team is notorious.  As I recall, based on the MLB investigation, Carlos Beltran was either the mastermind for the scheme or was the guy who figured out the implementation mechanism.  Notwithstanding that stature as a “convicted rulebreaker”. The voters from the BBWAA – – Baseball Writers Association of America – – elevated Carlos Beltran to Hall of Fame status.

On the outside looking in are a couple of handfuls of players with better statistical qualifications than Carlos Beltran but who are obviously less desirable on the rule breaking dimension than he.  I refer to all the steroid users – – real and supposed – – who retired in the “aughts” and whose 10-year presence on the Hall of Fame ballot has now expired.  Just a few of those names here:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Rafel Palmiero
• A-Rod

I have not come across any dissertation from any of the BBWAA members explaining to those of us unencumbered with sufficient knowledge to have a vote on that Hall of Fame Ballot just how all that makes perfect sense and that the universe is still in perfect order.  Here in Curmudgeon Central, the prevailing thought is:

• “All of these players are rulebreakers but some rulebreakers are more odious than others.”

And for the record, note that I did not include Pete Rose on that list of players above because the BBWAA never failed to vote him in or out of the Hall of Fame because MLB prevented such a vote/debate.

My position on all this has been pretty much unchanged over the years.  I view that Hall of Fame as a recognition that there are elite baseball players whose performance against other MLB players sets them apart.  I would admit steroid users and ne’er-do-wells if the career stats say that he should be considered one of the elites.  I would ALSO include a statement on their plaque in the Hall of Fame – – or maybe even a separate plaque under the standard one – – stating what the rulebreaker did and how it was an affront to the game.

Whatever …

The Washington Nationals traded their best starting pitcher – – MacKenzie Gore – – to the Texas Rangers for “five prospects”.  The interesting thing about the decision by the Nationals to move him on is that Gore was one of “five prospects” that the Nationals received from the Padres in exchange for Juan Soto back in 2022.  Three of the “five prospects” from the Padres – – Gore, James Wood and CJ Abrams – – have made it to the Nats on a regular basis to the point where one of them is now bringing in five more potential regulars for the big club.

Gore will be 26 years old next month; he was the overall #3 pick in the MLB Draft back in 2017.  For his career, his ERA is 4.19 and his WHIP is 1.40.  He is a strikeout pitcher averaging just over a strikeout per inning over his three-and-a-half seasons in the major leagues.

What this trade says to me is that the Rangers are assembling a formidable starting pitching staff for 2026 and that the Nationals will – – once again – – field a young and inexpensive roster that will contend for next-to-last place in the NL East.  Last year, the Nationals finished last in the division and were 10 full games behind the fourth-place team there.

Finally, given where this started today, it seems appropriate to close with some thoughts from George Orwell”

“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”

And …

“In our age there is no such thing as ‘keeping out of politics.’ All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred and schizophrenia.”

And …

“I sometimes think that the price of liberty is not so much eternal vigilance as eternal dirt.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I have been waiting since 1959 to use this word; it was on one of my vocabulary lists that I was given  as I was about to take the PSAT exams as a junior in high school.  My English teacher that year – – Miss Reed – – explained that any literate individual would be able to converse naturally using any of the words on her list.

The word for today is “antepenultimate”.

“Penultimate” means “next-to-last”; “antepenultimate” means the thing on a list that is just before the next-to last entry or “next-to-next-to-last”.

And so – – with deference to Miss Reed wherever she may be in the cosmos now in 2026 – – today is the antepenultimate version of Football Friday for this football season.  Can I get a “Hallelujah!” for that?  It only took my 67 years to find the need to use that word…

Normally, I just begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”; but as I went looking, I realized that this had been an up-and-down year with the “Betting Bundle”.  Notwithstanding the losing record to date, I thought I had been on a winning surge recently.  Here are the results as of this morning counting last week’s entries:

Spreads and Totals:              3-2-0

Season to Date:                     40-43-2

And …

Money Line Parlays:             0-1                   Loss= $100

Season to Date:                     17-25               Profit = $457

            When I went back to look at how things stood in the past, I found th entry from 21 November 2025, I realized that my sense of a winning surge was correct.  Here is how things stood as of 11/21/25:

Spreads and Totals:              17-34-2

Money Line Parlays:             10-16               Loss = $31

            The “Season to Date” results are not something to crow about, but I think I have salvaged a modicum of respect for the last 9 weeks of “Betting Bundling”.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

In the aftermath of Indiana’s climb to the top of the college football world in 2025, some folks were motivated to claim this Hoosier team as the best college football team ever.  There is no way on this planet – – or any other planet around any other star in the known universe – – that I would choose to engage in that debate.  However, I will offer up this data for your consideration; it would suggest that the 2025 Indiana schedule was a stiff one.

• There was a 12-team playoff roster this year.  Nominally, that list of teams would be considered “tough competition” over the course of the season.
• Indiana played 5 games – – out of its 16 games overall – – against teams that were invited to the 12-team CFP in 2025.  Those games were:
  • • Oregon (twice)
    • Ohio State
    • Alabama
    • Miami
• Indiana won all five of those games with a cumulative score of 165-76.

No matter how you come down on the theoretical argument of “best college football team/season ever”, you have to recognize that Indiana’s 16-0 record was not accumulated against a bunch of patsies.  In fact, one of the “out-of-conference patsies” that Indiana had scheduled last season was Kennesaw St. – – the team that was the C-USA champion in 2025.

A former colleague sent me a note after Indiana had won the CFP Championship Game:

“Cigneti (sic) set himself up for ridicule with his initial press conference and then he jammed his words up everybody’s [terminal end of the alimentary canal].  What would it take to beat that performance?”

Well, maybe if Joe Flabeetz who had never coached above the high school level, took over the football program at Rutgers and in his second year he went undefeated and won the CFP Championship, it would be comparable.  Other than something like that …

I read that Fernando Mendoza’s younger brother, Alberto, is going to transfer from Indiana to Georgia Tech next year; Alberto Medoza was a freshman QB on the Indiana roster in 2025/26.  Let me say this unequivocally:

• Alberto Medoza is a sharp young man.

If he were to stay in Bloomington, IN for the rest of his college career, he could never equal – – let alone surpass – – his older brother’s legacy there.  Alberto was part of a national championship team; that can never be taken away from him; now the best thing for him is to go and find somewhere else to play QB for a college football team.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Jordan Addison – – WR for the Vikes – – was arrested last week on charges of trespassing.  Addison was allegedly in the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Tampa and had been asked several times to leave the premises by hotel security personnel.  Addison did not comply and the gendarmes were summoned to the scene.  Supposedly, Addison was not cooperative with police as he was escorted from the facility, and the result was an arrest for trespassing after he was repeatedly told to leave the premises.  That’s all that was in the report; no weapons involved; no fisticuffs; this sounded like a situation that started with a misunderstanding and inflated itself into something out of nothing, possibly with the help of a few adult beverages.  But a little bell rang in the far recesses of my brain that sent me to Google.

Jordan Addison is a good WR; he could play for just about any team in the NFL.  Jordan Addison is also not a very good “citizen”; he has more “rule-breaking issues” at the age of 23 than one might wish for:

• He was cited and arrested for driving 140 mph on a Minnesota highway.  He plead guilty to a misdemeanor speeding charge and reckless driving charges were dropped.
• He was suspended by the NFL for 3 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
• When the Vikes played their “London Game” last year, he was held out of the first half of that game as a “coach’s decision”.  No further explanation ever came forward.

I said that Jordan Addison was a good WR who could play for anyone – – but he is not irreplaceable.  I think he really needs someone to sit him down and force feed him about 10 years of maturity in the next 6 months lest he develop a reputation of “not worth the trouble”.

Jeff Hafley’s hiring by the Dolphins continues a long tradition in Miami.  In the offseason between the 1999 and the 2000 NFL seasons, the team hired Dave Wanstedt as its head coach.  He lasted until the middle of the 2004 season.

• Since that hiring decision in 2000, the Miami Dolphins have had 10 head coaches (counting interims) and NONE OF THEM had ever been a head coach at the professional level before.
• Welcome to Miami, Jeff Hafley.

Here are some comments/observations from last week’s Divisional Round Games:

Pats 28  Texans 16:  The Texans’ defense did its job; it held the Pats to 248 yards of Total Offense for the day.  The Texans’ exit from the playoffs rests squarely on the shoulders of the Texans’ offense AND on the résumé of the play-caller last weekend.  The Texans could not run the football; not counting two frenetic scrambles by CJ Stroud, the Texans ran 20 times for 37 yards.  The problem was that the Texans adapted to that lack of a running game by going to another mode of attack that was equally inept; they kept dropping Stroud back looking for “chunk plays” that were not happening.  The last eleven offensive plays called for the Texans were drop back passes by CJ Stroud; there were no mysteries for the Pats’ defenders to worry about.  If you add in the sacks and the “frenetic scrambles” by CJ Stroud, the play caller for the Texans had him dropping back to pass more than 50 times in the game.

Rams 20  Bears 17 (OT):  Tell the truth; when the Bears tied the game and sent it to OT with that TD pass that had less chance of completion than a random “Hail Mary”,  you figured that the Bears were going to pull another win out of their collective [rhymes with ‘glass bowls”].  I admit that I could not see how the Rams might survive that deflating incident.  But they did.  The Rams were outgained 417 yards to 340 yards for the day; the Bears were 9 for 19 on third-down tries and 3 for 6 on fourth-down tries.  The Rams won because they also registered 3 INTs in the game that kept the game tight from start to finish; it was a one-score game all the way to the end.

Broncos 33  Bills 30 (OT):  The Bills dominated the stat sheet; they outgained the Broncos by 100 yards; they had an eleven-minute advantage in time of possession; they converted 10 of 15 third-down tries.  And they lost the game.  Five turnovers will do that to you.  Given the Bills’ dominance here and the absence of players like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow from the playoffs this year, the Bills and their fans must wonder what it might take to have the Bills play in the Super Bowl – – let alone win it.  Somehow, I doubt that firing their head coach – – as they did earlier this week – – is the move that will put the team over the top.

Seahawks 41  Niners 6:  If you are a Niners’ fan, you might console yourself by thinking that the major injuries to top-shelf players on both sides of the ball finally caught up with the team and even the unmitigated genius of Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling could not withstand the onslaught of the barbaric Seahawks.  If that makes the fanbase feel better, so be it.  However, there are some realities that need to be confronted:

• On Jan 3, 2026, the Seahawks beat the Niners 13-3.
• On Jan 17, 2026, the Seahawks beat the Niners 41-6.
• In eight quarters of football over a two-week stretch, the Niners scored zero TDs and only 9 points.
• That is 1.2 points per quarter of football and that won’t feed the bulldog.
• To make matters worse, the Niners never made it to the Red Zone let alone the End Zone last week.

The Niners end their season with a 12-5-0 regular season record despite multiple devastating injuries; that accomplishment alone is noteworthy.  At the same time, one has to wonder if that sort of thing is “sustainable” when you look at the roster:

• Brock Purdy is about to become “expensive” from a salary cap standpoint making personnel decisions a tad more difficult.
• Christian McCaffrey is 30 years old and has been used a whole lot in his career.
• Brandon Ayuk is not likely to be back with the team next year and Jauan Jennings is not exactly a “happy camper” with the team, so the WR position is not outstanding.
• George Kittle is 32 years old and will need to rehab from a torn Achillies tendon in this offseason.
• Trent Williams is still a stud at left tackle – – and Trent Willams is 38 years old …
• The Niners’ defense was rocked with injuries and held together with spit and bailing wire by defensive coordinator, Robert Saleh – – who is now on his way to Tennessee to take over that franchise.

The Bottom Line here is that the Niners were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend and the franchise has a lot of work to do in this offseason if it hopes to get back to the playoffs next year.

 

Games This Week:

 

Pats – 5 at Broncos (43.5):  I doubt that the Pats would be the betting favorite in this game if Bo Nix has not broken his ankle on a meaningless kneel-down play last week.  Sean Payton says he has complete faith in his backup QB, Jarrett Stidham – – but what else would you expect him to say.  So far in this NFL season, Stidham has taken one snap; ironically, it was a kneel-down play.  Stidham is no stars-in-the-eyes rookie; he has been in the NFL since 2019.  He has always been a backup in his meanderings around the league starting only four games in seven seasons, but he has been around big games in the past.  I think the Broncos will try to take the air out of the ball – figuratively of course – and feature their running game as much as possible to keep the game close and give the Broncos’ defense a chance to make a big play.  While Drake Maye has played excellently all year, he has been known to “put the ball on the ground” (8 times this year) and to “throw it to the wrong color jerseys” (also 8 times this year).  I look for the game to be a defensive game with limited possessions.  That being the case, I will take the Broncos plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Rams at Seahawks – 2.5 (46.5):  These teams met twice in the regular season and split those two games; this one is “winner-take-all”.  In mid-November, the Rams won in LA by a score of 21-19; in mid-December, the Seahawks won in Seattle in OT by a score of 38-37.   There is not a lot to glean from that data.  Everyone seems to focus on the Seahawks’ defense which is understandable because that defensive unit is as good as any in the league.  However, the Seahawks offense is not a slacker; the Seahawks scored 482 points in the regular season and only the Rams and the Paats scored more.  The big unknown here is Sam Darnold.  If he plays as he did most of the time in the last two regular seasons, Seahawks’ fans will be thrilled and Vikes’ fans will be muttering “unprintables” for the next several weeks.  If he plays as he did in last year’s game against the Rams and throws multiple INTs, this game will turn ugly.  I am sorely tempted to take the UNDER here but will resist that temptation.  I think Sam Darnold controls the ball and moves his team just enough to win by a field goal which is also just enough to win and cover; give me the Seahawks and lay the points; put it in the ‘Betting Bundle.”

And of course, there must be one last Money Line Parlay for the season:

• Broncos @ +210
• Seahawks @ minus-140                   $100 wager to win $431

Finally, here is a perspective on the importance of these two games this weekend from Marv Levy:

“This game is not a ‘must win’; World War II was a ‘must win’

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The number of NFL head coaching vacancies is dwindling.  I think a couple of the latest fillings are interesting because they are not what I would have predicted two weeks ago.  Let me explain:

The Titans hired Robert Saleh.  I am squarely in the camp that says Saleh has the credentials to be a good head coach; I think he was in an impossible situation with the Jets and was always impressed that his outmanned team played hard for him.  Having said that, I am surprised at this marriage for two reasons:

1. Generally, coaches get two shots at a head coaching position before they acquire the label of “great coordinator but not head coaching material”.  Saleh has had that one shot with the Jets; I would have expected him to aim for one of the more stocked rosters available this year.  Also, he saw what can happen to a team and a coach under “less than ideal ownership” in NY; and yet, he took a job with the Titans.  Oh well; at least he avoided the organizational dumpster fire that persists with the Raiders…
2. I thought the Titans would look for a “offensive guy” which is not Saleh’s pedigree.

The Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley.  The timing of the Dolphins’ firing of Mike McDaniel almost immediately after the Ravens ditched John Harbaugh led to more than a few reports that the Dolphins wanted Harbaugh and that made some sense.  The narrative there was that the locker room in Miami was undisciplined/disorganized and that Harbaugh would bring needed stability and order to the fore.  Then John Harbaugh signed with the Giants without taking a serious interview with the Dolphins who did a major pivot to Hafley who has never been a head coach at the pro level.  As defensive coordinator for the Packers, his teams have played well and the decline in performance late last season was in part due to the season-ending injury to Micah Parsons.  This may or may not be a great personnel move by the Dolphins; time will tell.  But the dramatic shift in the reported direction of the franchise from “old-line stability guy” to “first time head coach” and from “offensive genius” to “defensive guy” makes this one to watch.

The remaining opening that intrigues me the most is the Buffalo Bills.  When the Bills failed to make it to the Super Bowl despite being in the playoffs for the last seven seasons, the Bills fired the coach and promoted the GM.  My reading of the situation there is that the Bills’ roster was deficient and that deficiency should have had negative implications for the GM as well as the coach.

The Bills have a QB who is likely to be in the Hall of Fame one of these days; they also have a running back who has been in the league for 4 years and been to the Pro Bowl in 3 of those years.  What has been lacking in Buffalo for about 5 years now is a top-shelf defense and above-average talent at the WR position.  The organizational transformation announced by the Bills would lay the lion’s share of the blame on the now-absent coach.  So, what might that mean for the next incumbent?

Switching gears …  The Baseball Hall of Fame will induct three new members this summer.  Previously, the folks evaluating players who did not make it to the Hall in the normal time frame decided that Jeff Kent belonged there.  Earlier this week the baseball writers elected Carlos Beltran and Andru Jones to the Hall of Fame.  And my reaction to that trio can be summed up in a single syllable:

• Meh!

I don’t dislike any of the three players who will be honored this summer; I just don’t think of them in the same way I think of many other Hall of Fame members.  Moreover, the list of players who did not get elected this year – – the up-and-comers for the next few years if you will – – are unimpressive.

Only one of the players on the ballot for the first time received 5% of the votes meaning all the other “first timers” will not be on the ballot next season.  The one player who crossed the 5% line was Cole Hamels who received just under 25% of the votes.

The player who got closest to the needed 75% of the votes for induction was Chase Utley; he got about 60% of the votes.

Here is a link to the entire voting for this year all the way down to several first-year aspirants who got no votes at all from the 425 ballots that were cast in the election.  Look over that list if you will.  I could be talked into three of the fourteen players who got enough votes this year to be carried over into next year’s voting, but the pickings are slim.

Finally, here’s a thought from Ricky Gervais:

“There’s no difference between fame and infamy now. There’s a new school of professional famous people that don’t do anything. They don’t create anything.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Knowing how I like to have fun with people’s names, one might conclude that the football gods have thrown me a bone this season.  Look at the coaching matchups for this year’s Conference Championship Games:

• Sean Payton versus Mike Vrabel
• Sean McVey versus Mike Macdonald

            Coincidence?  Or a portent of things to come …?

Moving on …  The crowning of Indiana as the College Football National Champion has not generated any controversy, which I think is a good thing.  The Hoosiers played 16 opponents and beat them all on the field and not in some sort of computer simulation or in some mental construct that relies on obscure statistical manipulations.  And yet, there are folks who want to change the system that worked so well for this season.

For contractual reasons, the CFP poohbahs need to inform ESPN by Friday of this week exactly how many teams will be in the CFP next December/January.  I have no idea how or why that deadline came to be; however, I have read reports in several different places alluding to the existence of that deadline.  There is a sentiment to expand the number of teams from 12 participants as has been the case for the past two seasons for a very simple reason:

• More games to put on TV = More revenue generated = Duh!

Also, according to multiple reports, there is a sticking point.  Having a 12-team tournament is awkward; it demands BYE Weeks and all sorts of real and imagined advantages in the system.  From a simplistic view, the number of teams invited to participate should always be a power of two – – 2 teams or 4 teams or 8 teams or 16 teams … you get the idea.

Looking at those numbers that produce symmetrical brackets, you can eliminate from consideration any possibility less than 12 teams.  There is nothing that will convince the college football folks that fewer games are better than more games.  Ergo, expansion is the answer, and it would seem painfully obvious that a 16-team tournament field satisfies the dual objective of “more games” and “no BYE Weeks”.

• So, why hasn’t ESPN been notified already about the expanded field?

According to reports, the sticking point is a different formula for the selection of teams in the expanded field.  The Big Ten supposedly wants a formula where it and the SEC get a fixed number of participants “off the top” and then the Selection Committee can fill out the field.  The SEC wants the Committee to pick the 16 best teams and ignore any quota system.  Personally, I prefer the SEC position in that argument; but if I were a potential beneficiary of the added TV revenue from four extra games, I would not choose to die on that hill.

The latest report – based on unnamed sources who were not authorized to speak on the matter – is that the Big 10 is willing to go along with expansion to 16 teams without their preferred quota system in exchange for a commitment to expand the CFP further to 24 teams by the end of the 2028 season.  Let me channel President Ronald Reagan here:

• “There you go again…”

A college football tournament with 24 teams will require BYE Weeks and it will also add games that are not likely to be nearly as entertaining as ones involving the very best teams.  Expansion to 24 teams – – with the certainty that someone will notice that 32 teams bring back “bracket symmetry” – – is akin to pissing in the soup.  It will increase the quantity of the soup, but it will not improve the quality of the soup.

Hopefully, the Friday deadline with ESPN will come and go with no change for next year giving the conference mavens and the CFP poohbahs another year to come to their senses and decide on how college football will determine its national champion going forward.  My preference would be an 8-team field which is never going to happen.  I am resigned to the fact that there will soon be a 16-team field.  I really object to any expansion beyond that number.

Switching gears …  With Indiana posting a 16-0 record last season, there were references to only one other college football season with the same record.  It happened in 1894 at Yale.  However, upon further review …

• Indeed, Yale played 16 games that season and won them all.  In fact, 13 of the 16 victories were shutouts.
• However, 5 of Yale’s wins that season were not over other college teams.  Five games were against an “Athletic Club” or an “Athletic Association”.
• I am guessing that these Clubs/Associations were “inferior competition” since none of the five opponents scored a single point in any of the games and the cumulative score for the five game was 147-0.

Now you know …

Finally, this from Teddy Roosevelt:

“When you play, play hard; when you work, don’t play at all.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Congratulations to the Indiana Hoosiers as the CFP Champions for the 2025/2026 college football season.  At his introductory press event, Coach Cignetti said he came to Indiana with the intention of winning championships; last night, he fulfilled that intent.  If there were still any doubt about Fernando Mendoza’s worthiness as the Heisman Trophy winner, I suspect that last night’s performance would have erased any such doubts.

Moving on …  Yesterday, I wrote about the 10 NFL head coaching openings; there is always turnover in those jobs, but this year seems to be a hyperactive marketplace.  That could be a chance event; low probability events happen all the time; or perhaps there is a reason for so many firings/hirings this year.

Recency is a powerful element of one’s memory; sometimes we say that one had an experience or an event “fresh in mind” when offering a basis for a decision or an action.  Perhaps the NFL owners as a collective mind looked at last year’s “hiring season” and saw some dramatically improved results:

• Liam Coen – Jags:  He took over a team that had gone 4-13-0 in 2024 and posted a 13-4-0 record in 2025.  The last time the Jags had a season with double-digit wins was back in 2017 and the team had suffered through a miserable 2020 season with a 1-15-0 record.
• Ben Johnson – Bears:  He took over a team that had gone 5-12-0 in 2024 and posted an 11-6-0 record in 2025.  The last time the Bears had a winning record at the end of a regular season was in 2018 when they made the playoffs as the NFC North champions.  Everyone will remember how that season ended for the Bears in the playoffs when I use the words, “Double Doink”.
• Mike Vrabel – Pats:  He took over a team that had gone 4-13-0 in 2024 and posted a 13-4-0 record in 2025.  The Pats were living off the legacy of the “Brady/Belichick Era” in recent years when the facts say that the team had been a sub-.500 performer in each of the last three seasons.

            If the collective mind of “NFL Ownership” is focused on those dramatic turnarounds and concludes that such success is the new normal, I suggest that would be an erroneous conclusion.  There are three other common elements involved in those three turnarounds:

1. All three teams have young talented QBs.  Granted that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye went through some painful learning experiences in 2024, but both along with Trevor Lawrence possess natural QB talents.
2. All three teams have a balanced offense that does not place an inordinate burden on that young talented QB.  They can run the ball more than just once in a while particularly if they need to “bleed the clock” a bit.
3. All three teams have solid defenses; they need not score 35 points every week to post a winning record.

If you look at the list of job openings this year, notice that the first two hires were by teams with a young/promising QB in place – – Jaxson Dart and Michael Penix, Jr. (assuming he can stay healthy).  Coaches looking for work see that element as critical to their success, and they jump at the chance to work there.  Of the eight job openings extant, there are two with obvious QB talent – – the Bills and the Ravens.  Maybe Cam Ward in Tennessee will pan out; maybe the Raiders will have a talent at the position after they draft Fernando Mendoza; or maybe not.  Coaches taking jobs at any of the current openings other than the Bills or the Ravens are gambling their reputations as NFL head coaches on QB positions that are up in the air.

Moreover, look at the teams with job openings this morning.  How many of them would you say have a balanced offense or a dominant defense?  I would say few to none of them.  So, if my assessment of the value of the talent in place at six of the teams with a job opening this morning is correct and if indeed the owners are expecting results like those posted by Coen/Johnson/Vrabel in 2026, I fear there will be dashed hopes.  And when NFL owners’ hopes are dashed, there are new job openings.

Finally, maybe these words from Sigmund Freud apply here:

“Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The news this morning is that the Buffalo Bills have fired head coach, Sean McDermott, demonstrating as clear as glass that the operative environment in the NFL these days is,

• “What have you done for me lately?”

Sean McDermott came to the Bills in 2017; when he arrived, the Bills had not been to a playoff game since 1999.  McDermott has been the head coach of the Bills for 9 seasons, and the Bills have been in the playoffs in 8 of those 9 seasons.  Quite the improvement …

In the regular seasons since 2017, the Bills’ record has been 98-50; in round numbers, the team under Sean McDermott has won two out of three regular season games.  Quite the improvement again …  In the 9 seasons prior to McDermott’s arrival, the Bills cumulative regular season record under 6 different head coaches was 59-85.  Not enough improvement there …

There appears to be a virus spreading among NFL owners causing some awfully successful head coaches to be fired in this offseason.  And another “successful head coach” chose to step down from his position according to him.  That means there will be 10 new head coaches in 2026; almost one-third of the coaches in place back in August will have been replaced when Training Camp opens in July.

Eight of those ten job openings remain unfilled this morning; only the Giants and Falcons have hired replacements so far.  The Giants reportedly will pay John Harbaugh $20M per year for 5 years to make the Giants relevant again; the Falcons reportedly will pay Kevin Stefanski $14.5M per year for 5 years to coach the Falcons.  Eight jobs are still open – – and given the rate at which coaches are falling this year, there could be more.

Moving on …  There were reports late last week about gamblers and athletes conspiring to fix college basketball games.  Reports called the investigation “wide-ranging” which would seem to be appropriate since part of the allegation is that the conspiracy began by manipulating a game or games in the Chinese Basketball Association.  [Aside: I make no representation here as an authority on gambling, but I have never encountered betting lines on the Chinese Basketball Association anywhere.]

The alleged fixers followed what would seem to be a well paved path, according to the AP:

“The scheme generally revolved around gamblers who placed bets and recruited players with the promise of a big payment in exchange for purposefully underperforming during a game.  Those fixers would then bet against the players’ teams in those games, defrauding sportsbooks and other bettors, authorities said.”

According to charges filed in Philadelphia, the criminal enterprise began by fixing two games in the Chinese Basketball Association in 2023 and then expanded its market by manipulating men’s college basketball games as early as January 2025.  Since then, 29 games have been “fixed” involving 39 players and gamblers.

What I find amazing is that the investigators say the players were paid between $10K and $30K per game to “arrange the outcome”.  For that to be “sustainable” – to use a current business buzz word – the gamblers must have been betting much larger sums so that they could make those payoffs and still show a net profit for their “efforts”.

Again, from the AP:

“Prosecutors named more than 40 schools involved in games that were targeted by the scheme. Those included Tulane University and DePaul University.

“Rigged games included major conferences and some playoffs, including the first round of the Horizon League championship and the second round of the Southland Conference championship, prosecutors said.”

Indulge me with some math here …  If I am a fixer and I have targeted a game in the Horizon League – – let’s make this up and imagine it was a game between Robert Morris and Cleveland State – – and I have recruited two players on the Cleveland State team to make sure Cleveland State does not cover whatever the spread might be.  For their trouble, the two players will receive a total of $50K from me – – $25K per player per game.

Most spread bets on college basketball games carry odds of minus-110 meaning I would need to bet $55,000 on Cleveland State just to cover the cost of manipulating the outcome.  Obviously, I would not stop there; if I am in the game-fixing business, I am not out to enrich players; I am out to enrich me.  So over and above the $55K I would wager on the game to play off the players, I would bet at least that same amount so that I can show a tidy profit.

So, now I am wagering more than $100K – – and maybe a lot more than $100K – – on a Robert Morris/Cleveland State game.  And somehow, that sort of action was allowed to happen in as many as 29 different games without an alert being sounded?  Wow!

Here is a link to the AP report on this matter; it is worth a glance.

Finally, Benjamin Franklin may have summed up the Sean McDermott firing with these words:

“Most people return small favors, acknowledge medium ones and repay greater ones – with ingratitude.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………