Football Friday 9/4/26

            This week will be a truncated version of Football Fridays to come, but it needs doing for continuity if nothing else.  First, let me look back at the miserable performance of  the Six Pack suggestions and the Money Line Parlays from last week.  I always start out a football season in a hole and spend weeks digging out to get back to even; this year was no exception:

  • Spreads/Totals:         0-2-0    Year to date:   0-2-0
  • M/L Parlays :              0-2       Minus $200     YTD:             minus-$200

2026 could not have started out any worse given that I limited my selections to only a few games.  Undaunted, I march on …

The Linfield University Wildcats begin their pursuit of another winning record in football this weekend traveling east to face the Titans of the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh.  The Titans were 5-5 in 2025 and lost the opener last year to Linfield in McMinnville, OR by 17 points.  Remember, the reason I track this is because Linfield has had a winning season in football every year since 1956.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2026 is the Florida Gators and they begin their campaign with a home game this weekend against Florida Atlantic.  The Gators are 26-point favorites in that game; if they lose outright, my “sleeper team” might just become my “comatose team” for 2026.

Long-term readers know that I like to find unusual players’ names.  I think there will be a sufficient number that I run across to post one every week.  This week it will be

  • Princewill Umanmielen  DE  LSU

 

College Football Commentary:

 

During the telecast of the UNC/TCU game from Dublin last week, I thought I heard the announcers say that UNC QB, Billy Edwards, was in his 7th  year of college football.  That is not unheard of, but it is still unusual enough to send me checking.  Indeed, he has been involved in “collegiate” athletics for 6 years prior to the 2026 season.  It is way too much work to go and check every player on every roster of the 138 teams in Division 1-A football to see if there are other “Seventh Year Players”.  However, if there are others I would like to suggest that we name them immediately to:

  • The 2026 All-Blutarsky Team

UNC beat TCU straight up in Dublin last week as an 8.5-point underdog.  Lots of people have pointed to an energized Tar Heels’ offense under Bobby Petrino in their first game.  I think there was another angle to the game that mattered; Bill Belichick called the defensive signals for the game.  TCU scored on its first two possessions and then – – Nada.  Say what you want about Belichick and how “the game may have passed him by”; his defense seemed always to be in the right place at the right time for the final three quarters of that game.

One of the early things I do in setting up these Football Friday presentations is to look over the schedule for the week.  One of the things I saw quickly is the Washington and Washington St. will play on Sunday afternoon.  Say what?  That match-up used to be the Apple Bowl game; it was the last game of the season and a humongous rivalry in the PAC-8 and the PAC-10 and the PAC-12 before the conference imploded.  Now, is the first out of the gate for both schools?  What’s next in the demolition of traditional rivalries – – Army/Navy on Halloween Weekend?

UNLV had hopes of being the “Group of Six” invitee to the CFP this year and I bought into that hype picking the Rebels last week.  Well, those hopes just took a sharp stick in the butt losing to Memphis who now also has that goal in sight.  Marshall has a new coach, Charles Huff; his teams at Marshall and at Southern Mississippi have made it to bowl games every season with Huff on the sidelines.  Back in 2024, he led Marshall to a 10-3 record but somehow the school could not get a contract extension done; so, he went to Southern Miss and posted a winning record there.  I don’t want this to be a humongous overreaction, but Huff’s record and his opening win in his first game at Memphis might mean that team needs to be watched.

Memphis will play Boise St. in Week 2 this year; Boise St also has its eye on an invitation to the CFP.  That could be an interesting match-up…

Sacramento State played its first ever Division 1-A game last week.  They have stepped up to Division 1-A and joined the MAC, which makes exactly no geographic sense at all.  Sac St. lost to Eastern Michigan 28-17, and it was about as one-sided as that score might indicate; remember, those players ventured more than 2000 miles from “home” to play that game and will repeat that odyssey multiple times in 2026.  E. Michigan is a middling team in the MAC so this result does not bode well for Sacramento State.

And speaking of the MAC and not-so-good teams there, UMass did not win a single game in 2025, and they were 30-point underdogs to Rutgers yesterday.  The final score was UMass 37 and Rutgers 21.  The Minutemen held Rutgers to a total of 30 yards rushing in the game.  This result cannot make the folks in Big-10 HQS happy…

UVa put a beating on NC State last week winning by a score of 34-8.  It wasn’t that close.  The Cavs led 24-8 early in the second half and then put on a dominant drive that sealed the game long before the final whistle:

  • The drive consisted of 23 plays.
  • It covered 75 yards; that is 3.3  yards per play; Woody Hayes nods in approval
  • It lasted 12 minutes and 15 seconds
  • It culminated in a 1-yard TD run by RB. Xay Davis.

Florida St ultimately prevailed over New Mexico St. 34-17, but the Aggies only trailed by 10 points early in the 4th quarter.  The Seminoles got the win, but somehow I think Mike Norvell’s hot seat just got hotter…

 

Games This Week:

 

I know this is Week 1 of college football, and this is not a week where you expect to find a lot of short spreads, but this week has few short spreads in an ocean of lopsided ones.  I counted 59 games this weekend listed with double-digit spreads.  I might not be able to find a Six Pack – – or even a Two Pack – – this week.

Liberty at James Madison – 6 (50):  These schools are almost next-door neighbors.   Liberty represents C-USA and James Madison is part of the Sun Belt Conference.

Marshall at Penn St. – 24 (52):  The new coach at Penn St. used to be at Iowa St.  The Cyclones did not enjoy losing football games, but Matt Campbell has never been in an environment like Penn St. after an early season loss.

Ball St. at Ohio St – 49.5 (56):  Ball St. starting QB, Keldric Luster is listed at 5’ 10” and 250 lbs.  That is not exactly the physical profile of a typical college football QB.  That looks to me to be a shorter version of Jared Lorenzen, the former QB at Kentucky who carried the moniker – The Hefty Lefty.

UCLA – 1 at Cal (53):  This game has a reasonable spread – – but I have no handle on either team, so I have to pass.

Boise St. at Oregon – 24.5 (51.5):  As noted above, Boise St. would love to be the Group of Six participant in the CFP in December.  They can be forgiven for losing this game; Oregon is a Top Ten team, but Boise St. cannot be embarrassed here.

Clemson at LSU – 10 (51):  This is the College Game of the Week almost by default.  There is some heat between the two coaches and for that reason, I suspect that LSU coach Lane Kiffin will not take his foot off the gas once he gets a solid lead.  I like the LSU Tigers to beat the Clemson Tigers in this one and I think they will cover; put that in the Six Pack.

Norfolk St. at Old Dominion – 41 (52.5):  I said above the Liberty and JMU were almost next-door neighbors; these two schools are about 5 miles apart in the Tidewater area of Virginia.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            Former Dallas Cowboys RB and Hall of Fame inductee, Emmitt Smith, has been named in a lawsuit filed by an entity that places investments for Native American Cherokee tribes alleging that Smith and another partner were running a Ponzi Scheme.  As with any allegation of a Ponzi Scheme, it isn’t easy to summarize the allegations – – let alone the rebuttal claims – – in short order.  So, if  you want the details of this lawsuit, here is a link for you.

Aaron Donald is back with the Rams; indeed, he unretired to join the team in pursuit of a Super Bowl ring this season.  Let me channel my inner Captain Louis Renault here:

  • I am SHOCKED that Donald waited until the exhibition games and Training Camp were concluded before making his announcement…

I mentioned earlier this week that Packers RB, Josh Jacobs, is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List while the league investigates and the legal authorities decide what to make of allegations that he committed battery against a woman back in May.  Unless there is the plaintiff recanting her story, this matter does not bode well for the Green Bay Packers.  If the league intends to wait until the matter is settled in court, that could take a while because Jacobs’ court date is not until November.  That is the half-way point in the NFL season.

Before the games start for real next week, let me do what curmudgeons always do.  I want to list the NFL teams that most people consider playoff contenders and point out one bad thing about each team on the list that could spoil their ambitions.  I will list the teams alphabetically lest anyone try to ascribe priority here:

  • Bills:  Has the defense improved to the point that it can hold a lead when the team has one in the fourth quarter?
  • Chargers:  Have they improved a poor pass defense from last year?  Remember, the Defensive Coordinator from last year is no longer there to hide that weakness under a ton of blitzing.
  • Chiefs:  Is Mahomes fully healed and is there any gas left in the tank for Travis Kelce?
  • Cowboys:  Can the defense stop anyone?  Can the secondary cover a corpse?
  • Eagles:  What kind of passing offense will they present with the absence of AJ Brown?  Remember it wasn’t all that good with Brown in 2025.
  • Packers:  When will Micah Parsons return to the team and can he play at his previous level?  Oh yeah, do they have a fill-in for Josh Jacobs?
  • Pats:  Can they overcome the Super Bowl Loser’s jinx?
  • Rams:  This is simple; the roster is old and older.
  • Ravens:  They do not face a playoff team from last year until November 1st; they must not lose more than one game in their first seven.
  • Seahawks:  They lost Kenneth Walker III to free agency and Zach Charbonneau to knee surgery; can they still run the football?
  • Texans:  Is CJ Stroud for real or will the defense have to carry the day again in 2026?

            There are no NFL games this week; action starts next Wednesday with the game from Australia between the Niners and the Rams.  However, one fundamental difference between the early lines on NFL games as compared to this week’s college offerings is that there were 59 college games with double digit spreads and as of now, only 1 NFL game for next week has a 10-point spread (Chargers/Cards).  In fact, eleven of the sixteen games in the NFL next week are carrying spreads of a field goal or less.  The oddsmakers are really leaning in to parity for Week 1 of the NFL.

So let me summarize this week’s Six-Pack – – which should not be difficult since there is only one game in there.  This seems like the remnant of a six pack that Norm from Cheers might have brought home:

  • LSU – 10 over Clemson
  • Sorry no Money Line Parlays on the card this week

Finally, let’s hear from Phyllis Diller today:

“The reason women don’t play football is because eleven of them would never wear the same outfit in public.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Don’t Do The Crime If You Can’t Do The Time

To set the tone for today’s rant, let me begin with this from St. Augustine of Hippo who lived in the late 4th Century:

“Punishment is justice for the  unjust.”

Punishment was handed down by the NBA in the long-festering case of Kawhi Leonard/The LA Clippers/Circumvention of the NBA Salary Cap.  I am not going into the details of what was alleged to have happened by Pablo Torre on his podcast; if you need/want to refresh your memory on all that, Google “Pablo Torre Kawhi Leonard Clippers” and you will have your choice of links to that stuff.

After almost a year of investigation by an outside law firm, Adam Silver brought the hammer down on the Clippers and its management team – – and this was the Hammer of Thor and not the little hammer bone in your middle ear.

  1. Owner Steve Ballmer and team president, Lawrence Frank are suspended for 1 year
  2. The Clippers as a team is fined $30M – – AND – –
  3. The Clippers will forfeit 5 first round draft picks.

The first two punishments above can be shrugged off; yes, $30M is a steep fine but the Clippers’ owner is reportedly worth somewhere around $145-155B;  so, I think he can pay this fine and still avoid frequenting soup kitchens for his meals.

It’s that third punishment that is stunning.  Without first round picks for at least 5 years – – and possibly more if the Clippers have already traded away one of their future picks – – the franchise is hobbled in terms of a “level playing field”.  One of the supposed justifications for that harsh measure is that the Clippers are “repeat offenders” in the area of salary cap circumvention with DeAndre Jordan’s contract back in 2015.  Assuming that to be the case, a harsh penalty is appropriate.

The interesting thing here is that Kawhi Leonard seemingly skates on the matter.  Leonard will be fined $700K.  Before you react to that number and say that it is a huge fine, consider that Spotrac.com reports his career earnings at $375,772,011 and that his salary for the upcoming NBA season will be $50,300,000.  That means the $700K fine is just a smidge over a drop in the bucket.

The Clippers have vowed to challenge this ruling; I presume that means challenge it in court since I don’t now of any “Court of Appeals” within the NBA that might overturn or reduce this punishment suite.  Somehow, I don’t think we have heard nearly the last word on the matter.

Now compare this situation with one that is facing the NFL Commish, Roger Goodell.

  • The NBA had an owner who seems to have broken a league rule and has been hammered.
  • The NFL has an owner who plead nolo contendere to charges of engaging in prostitution (a minor criminal offense) who has yet to be “punished” by the league.
  • The NFL has a player – Josh Jacobs – who is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List because he faces charges of battery and “criminal damage to property.”  In the eyes of the law, Jacobs remains innocent.

I think Commish Goodell recognizes that he is in a delicate situation here.  Let me suppose that the NFL determines that whatever Jacobs did or did not do violates the league’s Personal Conduct Policy which is not congruent with criminal law.  If that turns out to be the case, the standard punishment for Jacobs would be a suspension of some number of games; there are many precedents for that punishment.

When a player is suspended …

  • He cannot be in team facilities or team meetings or team practices for the suspension period – AND – he forfeits his pay for that time too.
  • If he were suspended for 5 games, he would miss 5 game checks or 29.4% of his yearly salary.

So, why hasn’t Jed York been suspended yet?  Seeking sex for pay in a trailer park has to fall under the umbrella of the Personal Conduct Policy and the Commish knows that happened based on the court pleading and the fact that York served 2 days in jail as part of his sentence,  [Aside: York was also fined about $1000 in the case; I am confident that the check to pay that fine easily cleared and that the funds are now in the coffers of East Palestine, OH.]

But suspending an owner is not like suspending a player:

  • He can’t be in team facilities or in contact with team officials or players during the term of the suspension.  Big deal …
  • He can’t be in his luxury box for games during the term of the suspension.  So sad …
  • He does not lose his “salary” because he does not draw a salary from the team.

So, a player suffers “banishment” and loss of salary while an owner suffers “banishment” only.  And that is the dilemma that I think is staring Commissioner Goodell in the face about now; if he suspends Jed York, his punishment will shine a spotlight on the fundamentally different levels of pain disbursed to owners and players who run afoul of the dreaded Personal Conduct Policy.

Finally, I began today with words from St. Augustine of Hippo; let me close with this from psychiatrist, Thomas Szasz:

“Punishment is now unfashionable… because it creates moral distinctions among men, which, to the democratic mind, are odious. We prefer a meaningless collective guilt to a meaningful individual responsibility.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Reinventing College Football – Redux

I rarely do this, but I would like you to follow this link and read one of my rants from January 9th, 2017.  When you finish, I’ll be ready to expand on that idea today.

Nine years ago, I did not think that reorganizing college football so extensively was in the realm of the possible; now in 2026, one of the provisions of the “Save College Football Act” awaiting a vote in the US Senate is to prevent today’s conferences from breaking up because the top teams want to create a college football “Super League”.

Unlike 2017 when there were exactly 128 schools in Division 1-A football, there have been additions there.  This year there are 138 Division 1-A teams and that makes the math tricky so let me start by telling you that there will not be mathematical symmetry here and there will need to be some juggling and force-fitting of teams  into divisions to make this work.

I want to take the “Top 64 college football teams” and put them in the newly established College Football Champions League.  I want to take the remaining 74 teams that are playing Division 1-A football and organize them into the College Football Aspirants League.  Please note that I am trying to be kind and gentle with my labeling here; back in 2017, I called the first level categorization the Big Boys and the Little Boys.

Focus first on the Champions League.  Divide those 64 teams into 8 Divisions of 8 teams each.  The schedule for any team would follow a scripted pattern; 7 games against their Division opponents and 4 games against one-half of one other Division; the out-or-division games would rotate from year to year but all 11 games for all 64 teams in the Champions League would be against other teams in the Champions League; there are no “bunny games”.

The mavens who love the idea of an expanded CFP can use this scheduling chart to pick a field of 16 teams:

  • Selection Method #1:  The first place and second place teams in each of the 8 Divisions are in the CFP.  The Committee will simply need to seed those teams and get out of the way.
  • Selection Method #2:  The 8 Division winners are automatically in, and the Committee will then rank and seed the best 8 teams to fill out the CFP field on whatever basis the Committee might concoct.

            I prefer Selection Method #2 ever so slightly because it is easy for me to imagine that the third-place finisher in Division #1 might be significantly stronger than some of the other second place finishers in Divisions #2-8.  But I can live with either way …

But wait there’s more …  And there is a very contentious element here.

For the Aspirants League there is only room for 72 teams and there are 74 current teams that should get a seat at the table here.  There is no kind and gentle solution here; I know it is draconian, but two schools are going to be dropped down to Division 1-AA.  However, that decision will certainly be challenged in court; so, the real winner there is “Billable Hours”.

With 72 teams in the Aspirants League, there will be 9 Divisions of 8 teams each.  The scheduling there would be the same as in the Champions League; there are no “bunny games” and there are no games outside the commonly perceived level of competency.  There could be an Aspirants League playoff too and the games could fill up some of the minor Bowl Games.  However, the important thing for the Aspirants League is to identify its Top 8 teams because they will get promoted to the Champions League while 8 Champions League teams get demoted/relegated.

Here is how I would do the promotion/relegation:

  • For relegation, the 8 teams that finish last in their Division in the Champions League get “sent down”.  There will need to be tie-breaker rules established ahead of time because there could well be identical records for two teams at the bottom of any Division.
  • For promotion, the 8 teams that finish first in their Divisions get to “move up” – – but only if they elect to do so.  If a team is content to stay in the Aspirants League, then it can certainly do so and there would need to be a selection process for a team or teams that did not finish first in their Division to “move up”.

Promotion to the Champions League is potentially a curse and a blessing.  The blessing is that there will be more money coming in to the Athletic Department based on shared revenues for media deals with the Champions League.  The curse is that promotion may be ephemeral and there may be demotion one year hence; so, is that additional revenue worth the disruption.  For some schools the answer will surely be “yes”, but I would not want to mandate it as the only answer; promotion should be an invitation and not a requirement.

And now for the icing on the cake …  What to do with the teams that finish at the bottom of their Divisions in the Aspirants League?  Remember that two schools were “kicked out” of Division 1-A football to get the numbers right for the Aspirants League; those two schools would certainly want back in.

In addition, there may be other schools in Division 1-AA who might want to “graduate” and try their hand at a higher level of competition.  At the start of every season, there would be a time for schools outside Division 1-A to declare their intention/willingness to “move up” and here is how that would play out:

  • If there are exactly 9 outside teams declaring for promotion to the Aspirants League, then those 9 teams would simply replace the 9 teams that finished last in their Division.
  • If more than 9 teams declare, a Committee would have to decide which 9 are most deserving.  I would suggest that “surplus teams” have a playoff for those open slots, but others might prefer a simple Committee ruling.
  • If fewer than 9 teams declare then fewer than 9 teams from the Aspirants League need demotion.  In this scenario, a version of my longstanding mythical SHOE Tournament would work.  Let’s say only 5 teams declare for promotion.  There are 8 last-place finishers.  A Committee would decide that two of those last place finishers will certainly go down but the other six teams would draw lots and play an elimination game where the loser goes down and the winner stays in the Aspirants League.

Meanwhile, at the top of the Champions League there will always be at least a couple of big-time games every week for TV presentations.  Focus on teams in the lower levels of the Divisions will increase because of the relegation provisions; the same goes for plenty of Aspirants League games because of promotion potential and relegation to Division 1-AA potential.

And somehow, all this increased focus on College Football is to be blunted by legislation pending in the US Senate.  Don’t ask why; just recognize this is the work of the US Congress – the place where good ideas go to die.  In my mind the only real question is this:

  • Should we implement this in 2027 or in 2028?

Finally, I feel the need to close today with this from President Calvin Coolidge:

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘Press On!’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

As MLB Enters The Home Stretch …

The arrival of September means that the MLB regular season is in the home stretch; this is an opportune time to check in and see how the races are shaping up; which teams have surprised and which have disappointed.  Back in March, I made some season predictions so let me peek and see how they look on September 1st.

  • Yankees to win AL East:  The Yanks are in second place trailing the Rays by 4.5 games this morning.  That is not an impossible hurdle for them to overcome but given that the Rays have more wins than any other AL team, the Rays may be hard to catch.
  • Tigers to win the AL Central:  That is simply not happening.  The Tigers are 11 games under .500, and they gave up the ghost at the trading deadline by trading away their two best pitchers.
  • Mariners to win the AL West:  As of today, the Mariners are in third place 6 games behind the division leading Astros with the Rangers in second place.  This gap may actually be easier to overcome because the Astros are only 2 games over .500 and the Rangers are 2 games  under .500.  A ten-game hot streak by the Mariners could put them in charge.  We shall see …
  • Phillies to win the NL East:  They are 4 games behind the Braves this morning and that could be a tough climb, but they look comfortably in the playoff picture.  The Braves have survived the injury bug this year very effectively.
  • Cubs to win the NL Central:  The Cubs trail the Brewers by 7 games, and the Brewers have the best record in all of MLB.  The Cubbies will have to settle for a playoff spot this year.
  • Dodgers to win the NL West:  Duh!  The Dodgers have a 9-game pad over the Padres in the division.

I also mentioned in March some teams that might be dark horses this year.

  • Red Sox:  They started horribly and then had an incredible hot streak.  But that was not enough to dig them out of the hole they fashioned for themselves.  They should make the AL playoffs though.
  • Royals:  Fuhgeddaboudit!    The Royals are 14 games below .500
  • Giants:  They are in even worse shape than the Royals; as of this morning they are 25.5 games behind the Dodgers and there are not enough games left on the schedule for them to catch the Dodgers.
  • D-Backs:  They are not going to catch the Dodgers, but the D-Backs are 7 games over .500 as of this morning.

I suggested 5 season long win total wagers back in March:

  • Orioles UNDER 86.5 wins:  Looks good for now; the O’s project to have 81 wins.
  • Tigers OVER 85.wins:  Not happening; the Tigers would have to go 23-2 in their remaining games to make this work.
  • Mets UNDER 90.5 wins:  This is a lock; the Mets cannot get to that win total even if they win every one of their remaining 24 games.
  • Reds UNDER 81.5 wins:  The Reds are 8 games under .500 this morning with 24 games to play.  To go over the total, they would have to post a record in September of 17-7.  Could happen – – but not likely.
  • D-Backs OVER 79.5 wins:  This looks solid; the team projection as of today is for 85 wins.
  • Not bad … only one certified clunker in that set of predictions.

As the September games unfold, keep an eye on the Astros’ box scores to track the stats of Yordan Alvarez.  Here’s why:

  • He leads the AL in batting average, HRs and RBIs.  The last player to win the Triple Crown in the AL was Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and before him it was Carl Yazstemski in 1966.
  • AND … He has a longshot at having the highest batting average and the most home runs and the most RBIs in all of MLB.  Mickey Mantle did that in 1956; before that Ty Cobb did it in 1909.

Another thing to watch is the performance of the Chicago White Sox.  They had lost more than 100 games in each of the last 3 seasons including losing 121 games in 2024.  Right now, the White Sox lead the AL Central by 3 games over the Guardians.  They look awfully solid as a playoff team either as the division winner or as a wild card team.

Finally, I’ll close today with some thoughts from famous baseball people:

“Confidence is how you go about your business. Cocky is when you have to explain it to somebody.”   [Ken Griffey Jr.]

And …

“Pressure is a word that is misused in our vocabulary. When you start thinking of pressure, it’s because you’ve started to think of failure.”  [Tommy Lasorda]

And …

“The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers.”  [Earl Weaver]

            But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Starting QB For The Cleveland Browns = ?

The Cleveland Browns made it to the headlines again late last week and – as usual – the story was not totally positive.  The team announced that Deshaun Watson would be he starting QB in Week 1 after a “QB competition” in Training Camp that did not leave the fans in Cleveland ecstatic with the selection.  In addition to the fans going berserk over this choice, lots of commentators piled on as well.

I am not a Cleveland Browns fanboy; and I don’t pretend to have any inside information about how or why the team made it to their conclusion.  So, let me try to evaluate that situation with a minimal expenditure of reaction by my adrenal glands.  And to set the tone for this evaluation let me say:

  • There is no clear cut “right answer” here.

Let me start with Deshaun Watson.  Among the fanbase, he is as close to a pariah as possible.  There was a mixed reaction to his acquisition in the first place; at the time, he was seen as having potential to be a franchise QB, but in addition to the baggage he carried from off-field ‘incidents” to the cost of 3 first round picks to get him in a trade plus that monster fully guaranteed contract given to him by the Browns, he never lived up to his on-field potential.

  • From 2022-2024, he was available for 19 games as a starter.
  • The Browns’ record in those games was 9-10-0.
  • Then, he missed all of 2025 with an injury.

In an exhibition game this year, he had a poor showing and the fans booed him loudly; he said he didn’t care which inflamed a lot of those fans even more.  So, the choice of Watson as the starter in Cleveland strikes many as picking an injury-prone guy who did not light it up when he was healthy and whose baggage with the fanbase is approaching critical mass.  So, why pick him?

The Browns cannot just cut Watson without incurring a humongous dead money hit on their cap AND they would still have to pay him the balance of the contract that is due to him because it is fully guaranteed.  So, if the team must have him on the payroll, maybe it makes sense to find out if there is anything he might contribute to a team that is surely not going to the Super Bowl this season.  Some have opined that the owner dictated this selection of the starting QB so he could “get something for his money”.  Who knows?  Remember, in Watson’s first 4 years with the Texans he was selected for the Pro Bowl 3 times and made the All-Pro team once; is there any juice left in that lemon?

The fan favorite is Shedeur Sanders; backup QBs are often the most popular guy in town on teams that are not playoff teams.  The Browns got a decent look at Sanders last year when he started 7 games for the team; the results were a mixed bag:

  • The team record in those 7 games was 3-4-0.  Not bad for a 5-win team.
  • He threw 7 TDs and 10 INTs in 2025.  Not good.
  • He was sacked on 9.7% of his pass attempts; that means he held the ball far too long.  Also, not good.

Perhaps the Browns saw enough last year to conclude that Shedeur Sanders is a career backup and what the Browns need to do is to find a franchise QB.  If they decided that Sanders is never going to achieve that status, then there is no reason to start him this year.  The counter to that argument is that Sanders is only 24 years old while Watson is 30 years old.  So, experimenting to find the “QB of the Future” for the team should favor testing out younger talent.

And there is another horse in this race; Dillon Gabriel is also on the roster, and the Browns drafted Gabriel ahead of Sanders in the same Draft class in 2024.  Gabriel started 6 games for the Browns last year with less-than-positive results:

  • The team record in those games was 1-5-0.  Not good.
  • He threw 7 TDs and 2 INTs.  Not great – but better than Sanders’ stats there
  • He was sacked on 9.3% of his pass attempts; Not good.

[Aside: Since both Sanders and Gabriel were sacked on almost 10% of their drop backs, maybe it was a faulty OL that was to blame for those stats?]

Gabriel clouded the waters in the final exhibition game this season with these stats in that game:

  • 12 of 15 for 186 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs (Passer rating = 157.9)

As I said above, there is no clear-cut answer to the puzzle here so let me now say how I think this will all play out.  The Browns open the season with two road games (at Jax and at Tampa); that means the team will not hear the ire of the local fanbase until September 27th when the Panthers come to Cleveland.  If Watson and the Browns could win either of those road games, perhaps a portion of the Watson haters would hold some of their hatred in abeyance; so, look at those first two games as a no-cost option for the team.  The acid test will come for the Browns in Game 5 on the road against the Jets.  If the Browns are 0-4-0 entering that game and lose to a lowly Jets’ squad, you can be sure that Shedeur Sanders will be the starter in Game 6.

Assuming that Sanders and/or Gabriel perform similarly to how they performed last season – yes, I know QBs tend to progress in year 2 in the NFL – the Browns will go shopping for a franchise QB once again in the 2027 Draft. I think the Front Office there started to plan for that contingency when they traded Myles Garrett to the Rams in June.  That means the team has two first round picks and a total of eleven Draft picks in 2027.  That might be enough for the team to maneuver to a spot where they “get their guy” in what is touted to be a “loaded QB Draft”.

Here is  my prognosis:

  • Watson starts 5 games
  • Sanders starts 10 games
  • Gabriel starts 2 games
  • Browns record is 5-12-0
  • Browns have a Top 5 pick in the 2027 Draft, and they pick a QB there.

That is an easy conclusion for me to project; I am not a Cleveland Browns fanboy who has suffered with the team ever since it re-entered the NFL in 1999.  Their suffering is real and it will not abate in 2026; the QB taken in Round 1 of 2027 will be a conquering hero for at least the first half-dozen games in 2027.  After that, we’ll see …

Finally, Browns’ fans have had more than their share of frustration, so here is a positive thought for them from Sumner Redstone:

“Success is not built on success. It’s built on failure. It’s built on frustration. Sometimes it’s built on catastrophe.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 8/28/26

For new arrivals on this meandering vehicle, let me put out the first Football Friday of the upcoming football season.  Please do not take “Friday” literally; there will be weeks when it happens on Thursday; there will be weeks when external events do not allow for one of these at all.  And please note that both Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall on Fridays this season; so, who knows when/if there will be Football Fridays then.

Over the years, these offerings have come to have a loose format, and I’ll use today to explain what that format is.  Each week, I will offer up a “Six Pack” of suggested wagers.  Do not take “six” literally; some weeks there will be more and some weeks there will be fewer.  And each week, I will offer up some “Money Line Parlays” as long as I find a couple that catch my eye.  And in the week after offering up those suggestions, I will begin with a review of how they turned out and what the cumulative record for the season happens to be.

I will also report on what happened to my “Sleeper Team” in the previous week; for this season, I have picked the Florida Gators, and I hope that once again I predicted a team good enough to get to a bowl game.

Then comes a brief look at the season for the Division III Linfield Wildcats in McMinnville, OR.  I have no ties to the school at all, but their football program is on a roll; they have had a winning season every year since 1956 – save of course for 2020 when COVID eliminated Division III football.

After that comes “College Football Commentary” – just random stuff related to college football that I find interesting.  I have a few things on my plate even now as the season is about to get started so let put those comments in the typical format.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Normally at this point in the season, the dominant narrative relates to projections as to conference champions and candidates for the CFP.  Coaches are all optimistic; it is generally upbeat.  This year, that usual narrative is distracted no little bit by things happening in courtrooms around the country.  Players are suing the NCAA for extra eligibility; players are being cut from NFL teams and seeking to go back and play college football.  As of today, the biggest winner in college football is “Billable Hours”.

Could anyone have imagined ten years ago that a player who signed with an NFL team and went to their training camp could turn around and play more college football when he did not make the NFL team?  Surely, no one in the NCAA who drank the Kool Aid and believed in the amateur scholar-athlete could have done so.  However, the seeds for the current situation in football were planted by the NCAA when they saw fit to allow European basketball players to come to US colleges after playing in pro leagues in their home countries.

The NCAA is an anachronism when it comes to the so-called “revenue sports”;  the NCAA and its guiding principles might have traction in Division II or Division III athletics in 2026, but that is about all.  What a mess…

There is an interesting irony here.  A little over 20 years ago, Maurice Clarett wanted to join the NFL draft and was prevented from doing so because he was not three years removed from his high school graduation; the court ruled that the NFL could do so because that criterion had been negotiated into the existing CBA between the NFL and the certified union of its players.  However, since Clarett had signed with an agent; he was not allowed to return to Ohio State – or any other school for that matter – by existing NCAA rules related to “amateur status”.  If I were the producer for a sports talk radio show, I would try to get Maurice Clarett as a guest to see what his perspective is on the evolution of college football from his time in the sport until today.

Meanwhile, some conferences and schools are issuing rules saying that players who signed with NFL teams may be allowed to play college football but not in those conferences or at those schools.  I am not aware of any legal challenges to such declarations by schools or conferences but somehow those “bans” seem different than a blanket NCAA dictum on the matter.

 

After “College Football Commentary” there will be a look back at some interesting games from last weekend.  Obviously, there are no such games to deal with today; so, I will move quickly to the next segment on a typical Football Friday;  I look at the schedule for this week and pick out interesting games and look at the betting lines for those games.  The menu for this week is thin, but let me take a look at a few games in the so-called “Week Zero” for college football:

 

College Football Games This Week:

 

UNC vs. TCU – 8 (47) [Game played in Dublin, Ireland]: The spread opened at 6.5 points and has been climbing to the point that three sportsbooks have it as high as 9 points this morning.  Also, the Total Line opened at 51 points and has been dropping steadily all week.  I think UNC might gel later in the season as it gets in step with the new Bobby Petrino offense there, but I don’t see that happening from the start of the season.  Give me TCU to win and cover; put it in the Six Pack.

New Mexico St. at Florida St. – 32 (54):  This game is of interest to one specific reader of these rants.  He attended both New Mexico St. and Florida St. in his college and grad school days.

Sacramento St. at E. Michigan – 9 (54):  Sacramento St. was 9-5 last year in the big sky Conference at the Division I-AA level; E. Michigan is in the MAC and went 4-8 in that bottom-dwelling conference.

Hawaii at Stanford – 4 (48.5):  Hawaii beat Stanford by 3 points last year, but before you label this as a revenge game for The Cardinal, recognize that there is a completely new coaching staff there this year and significant turnover in personnel.  Hawaii should be one of the better teams outside the Power 4 and Stanford is one of the weaker teams in the Power 4.  This could be an interesting game to watch.

Memphis at UNLV – 4 (56):  Memphis is a solid Group of Six football program, but it has a new coach and a heavy turnover of personnel for this season.   UNLV won 10 games last year and has aspirations for the CFP this year as the Group of Six selectee.  Just a hunch, but I like the Rebels to win and cover here; put that in the Six Pack.

NC St. at UVa – 4 (51.5):  This is a conference game right out of the box.  The Wolfpack QB is CJ Bailey; keep an eye on him as the season progresses; he looked awfully good to me last year.  This game was supposed to have been played in Brazil but the organizer/promoter for the game had to back out because it could not secure all the assets needed to put on the game nor could it generate sufficient interest to make a “break-even situation” possible.  So, instead of Rio de Janeiro, these guys get to play in Charlottesville, VA.  Bummer…

Jax St. at N. Dakota St – 7 (47):  Jax St has been in Division 1-A since 2023; this is the first season at that level for N. Dakota St.  Jax St was 9-5 last year including a bowl game; N, Dakota St. was 12-1 in Division 1-AA last year.  This could be the most interesting game of the weekend.

 

And with college football out of the way, the rest of Football Friday will focus on the NFL starting with overall commentary and then a look at the games from last week and finally a look at all the games on the card for the weekend.

Finally, I wrap up with a review of the Six Pack:

  • TCU – 8 over UNC
  • UNLV – 4 over Memphis

Here are two money line parlays:

  • TCU @-340
  • UNLV @ -185              $100 wager to win $99

And …

  • TCU @-340
  • NC State @ +165       $100 wager to win $243

 

That’s the overview for “Fridays” from now until Feb 12, 2027 – – just before the Super Bowl game in SoFi Stadium in LA.

I’ll close today with this from Bear Bryant:

“Winning isn’t everything, but it sure beats anything that comes in second.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………

 

 

No More Pro Bowl Games

The news today brings to mind the movie, Weekend at Bernies.  In that flick, two young execs need to pretend that their boss who had been murdered by the mob was indeed alive for a weekend party at the boss’ place.  Some call it a “dark comedy”; I would call it a farce.  And having used the word farce, that brings me to the news of the day:

  • The NFL is getting rid of any and all activities related to the Pro Bowl.

Can I get a Hallelujah?

The Pro Bowl game became a sham contest where no one hit anyone else and so the league tried to foist off the “Pro Bowl Games” on its fans ever since 2023.  Finally, and mercifully, the NFL has come to the realization that the time has come to put the whole thing to rest.

Requiescat in pace, Pro Bowl.

The league will still name 88 players who have earned Pro Bowl honors, and the league will invite those 88 players to LA for a “celebration” in February in place of a game of any sort.  Here is a statement from an NFL official:

“The Pro Bowl has always been about recognizing the players who distinguish themselves as the very best in the NFL.  A Pro Bowl selection will return to its original purpose, honoring the best of the best. We want that distinction to carry even greater meaning for the players, their families, their clubs and our fans.”

Moving on, but staying with the NFL …  The NFL has had some restrictions on Tom Brady’s access to coaches and players in preparation for broadcasting duties on FOX.  Even if there were no conflicts of interest, Brady’s partial ownership of the Raiders would create an appearance of a conflict of interest and in the Internet age that “appearance” would be all that the conspiracy advocates would need to go berserk.  And so far – – so good.

The league has a new challenge in 2026 regarding a broadcaster.  Troy Aikman will still call Monday Night games alongside Joe Buck and in his abundant spare time he will also serve as an “informal consultant and strategic sounding board” for the Miami Dolphins.  Basically, the NFL will take the restrictions applied to Tom Brady and apply them equally to Troy Aikman; if it has worked so far, why change anything?

Aikman’s first involvement with the Dolphins was as an advisor to the owners in the hiring of a new GM and a new head coach in the last offseason.  Once that was accomplished, he stayed on as an advisor to “top decision makers” for the team.  I cannot find any specific reference to this specific point, but I wonder if Aikman was in on the decision process to release Tua Tagovailoa and eat the $100M dead cap money hanging over the head of the franchise this year.

In general, here are the restrictions on Brady and Aikman:

  • They may attend production meetings virtually, but they cannot have access to practice facilities or practices.
  • They may conduct interviews with coaches or players of the GM in places other than team facilities.
  • They may broadcast games involving the clubs that “employ” them or that they have partial ownership in.

Frankly, those restrictions make sense to me.  If they are not allowed inside team facilities, that negates any sort of sideways glances involving “espionage”.  And in the interviews with coaches/players, if those people share “inside information”, that is on the one doing the sharing not the one doing the listening.  A former colleague used to say:

  • There are no indiscreet questions; there are only indiscreet answers.

I doubt that I will detect a significant drop off in performance from Troy Aikman in the 2026 season based on these restrictions for his access.  The NFL’s schedule for MNF games is set save for a Saturday doubleheader on January 9, 2027; those matchups will be announced later.  So far, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman are not slated to broadcast a game involving the Dolphins.

Finally, this from Troy Aikman:

“Just remember that nothing is as bad as it seems and nothing is as good as it sometimes appears.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Marty Schottenheimer Belongs In The Hall Of Fame

I have mentioned this in passing before; so, today I plan to step up on an imaginary soap box to convince you that there is a wrong to be corrected related to professional football.  I will avoid doing this in any way related to how I think either Stephen A. Smith or Pat McAfee might make this case; I will try to maintain the focus and decorum one might expect from Sergeant Joe Friday – – just the facts, ma’am.

Here is the simple statement:

  • Marty Schottenheimer is not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a coach, and he should have been enshrined by now.

The key number that supports my assertion is “200”.  Marty Schottenheimer’s teams won 200 regular season games between 1984 and 2006.  There are only eight coaches in the history of the NFL who have won 200 or more games and they are:

  1. Don Shula                  347 wins                      Hall of Fame
  2. Bill Belichick               333 wins                      Soon to be in Hall of Fame
  3. George Halas             324 wins                      Hall of Fame
  4. Andy Reid                   284 wins                      When he retires …
  5. Tom Landry                 270 wins                      Hall of Fame
  6. Curley Lambeau         229 wins                       Hall of Fame
  7. Paul Brown                 213 wins                       Hall of Fame
  8. Marty Schottenheimer 200 wins                      Not in the Hall of Fame

As they say in those infomercials that run at 3:00AM on obscure cable channels, “But wait; there’s more …”

There are 23 more coaches already inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame whose teams won fewer than 200 games.  They are:

  1. Chuck Noll                  193 wins
  2. Bill Parcells                 172 wins
  3. Bud Grant                   158 wins
  4. Joe Gibbs                   154 wins
  5. Steve Owen                153 wins
  6. Bill Cowher                  149 wins
  7. Marv Levy                   143 wins
  8. Tony Dungy               139 wins
  9. Hank Stram               131 wins
  10. Weeb Ewbank           130 wins
  11. Sid Gillman                 122 wins
  12. Dick Vermeil                120  wins
  13. George Allen              116 wins
  14. Don Coryell                 111 wins
  15. John Madden              103 wins
  16. Tom Flores                    97 wins
  17. Vince Lombardi             96 wins
  18. Bill Walsh                      92 wins
  19. Jimmy Conzelman        87 wins
  20. Ray Flaherty                  80 wins
  21. Jimmy Johnson             80 wins
  22. Greasy Neale                63 wins
  23. Guy Chamberlin            58 wins

The knock on Marty Schottenheimer has been that his teams underperformed in the playoffs and I am not going to gloss over that or try to deny it.  His playoff record over his career is a less than gaudy 5-13.  However, in 22 seasons of NFL coaching, his teams made it to the playoffs in 13 seasons which seems pretty good to me.  Moreover, in at least two of those playoff losses, Marty Schottenheimer was tormented by situations that were so iconic that they have names of their own:

  1. The Drive – – Thank you to John Elway in 1987
  2. The Fumble – – No thanks to Earnest Byner in 1988

Underperformance in playoff games has not been held against other coaches already in the Hall of Fame.

  • Marv Levy lost 4 Super bowl games in 4 consecutive seasons, and he is deservedly in the Hall of Fame
  • Bud Grant had a team in the Super Bowl 4 times and lost every time, and he is deservedly in the Hall of Fame.

And let me make one last point to commend Marty Schottenheimer for the Hall of Fame.  In the ignominious years when Daniel Snyder owned the Washington franchise, he employed 10 head coaches for his teams.  All but one of those 10 coaches – – including Joe Gibbs 2.0 after Gibbs was inducted into the Hall of Fame – – left with records below .500.  That one exception was Marty Schottenheimer who coached Washington for 1 season.  After losing the first five games of that season, he rallied that club to finish at 8-8; he broke even under Daniel Snyder and no one else could.

Thank you for your attention to this matter; Marty Schottenheimer’s absence from the Pro Football Hall of Fame is a wrong that needs to be made right.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Time-Travel And A Prostitution Sting …

When I am out and about in my car, I usually listen to sports radio; the late summer is often a time when the standard hosts are “on hiatus” and they have “rookies” filling in for them.  Such was the case late last week when a stand-in host came up with an imaginative way to fill a couple of 10–15-minute segments.  Here was the question for callers to answer:

  • If you had the superpower of time-travel, what great moment in the history of sports would you go back and witness in person?

That is a mindless and harmless set-up for a call-in show and the host was taking calls in rapid fire.  Don Larsen’s perfect game in the World Series; Bill Mazeroski’s walk-off home run in the World Series; NC State’s upset over “Phi Slamma Jamma” in March Madness were among the early suggestions from callers.  One caller suggested the 1940 NFL championship game where the Bears defeated the Redskins by a score of 73-0; that did not find favor with the host here in the DC area; he didn’t call that suggestion blasphemous, but you got the idea he would like to have done so.

After a few more, someone said he would want to go back and see Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game against the Knicks in the early 1960s.  And that mention triggered a memory of a game I actually saw in person that did not have  a singular attachment to sports history but was probably the best total basketball performance I ever saw in person.  It took me several days to track down the box score for that game because my memory had me looking in the wrong month and the wrong year.  But I eventually found it and want to share today what I was lucky enough to see.

The date was December 8, 1961; I was a freshman at the University of Pennsylvania and a friend’s father had two tickets to a game between the LA Lakers and the Philadelphia Warriors.  At the last minute, the friend’s father could not make the game, so my friend asked me if I wanted to go with him.  That is how I got there.

Elgin Baylor and Wilt Chamberlain put on a show that night; here are the data:

  • Baylor had 63 points and 31 rebounds in the game.
  • Chamberlain had 78 points and 43 rebounds in the game.
  • The Lakers won the game in Triple OT and Wilt played all 63 minutes that night.

I was in the right place at the right time and got to see that spectacle.

However, one evolving story today is an example of being in the wrong place at the wrong time for the wrong reason.  Jed York is the CEO of the San Francisco 49ers; he was arrested over the weekend and  plead no contest to misdemeanor charges that stem from a prostitution sting in East Palestine, OH.  According to reports, York responded to an online ad for “carnal services” to cost $140; he was arrested, booked, charged and with his plea he got to spend a day or two in jail and paid a fine around $1000.

Cue the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy here …  If a player or coach or referee behaved like this, you can be sure that the league would suspend and fine the individual and maybe even fire the offender if it were one of the officials.  It will be interesting to see how the league will apply the policy to an owner because suspending an owner doesn’t mean much and the chances that the league could levy a fine that was meaningful to Jed York are pretty slim.

Before anyone jumps to remind me that Robert Kraft did something very similar here and was not punished for his actions, there is a significant difference between the two incidents.

  • Jed York plead no contest and was punished by the court for his actions.
  • Robert Kraft was never tried; the charges were dropped when the prosectors stood down.

Jed York spent two days in jail; Robert Kraft did not.  As trivial as that “sentence” from the court may be, I suspect The Commish will need to consider it when he renders his decision.

The Niners obviously want this matter to be over and done with posthaste.  Here is the official statement by the team about this “situation” as per Adam Schefter:

“As this is a legal matter, which has been resolved, we will not be providing any further comment at this time.”

Translation:

  • Can’t wait for the regular season to start so that people will be focused on the games and not this “legal matter”.

Finally, this statement from Benjamin Franklin seems a good way to close today’s rant:

“Remember not only to say the right thing in the right place, but far more difficult still, to leave unsaid the wrong thing at the tempting moment.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

NFL PreSeason Analysis – 2026

It is that time of the year again – – the time where I demonstrate how indifferent I am to personal embarrassment.  I have already opined on NFL coaches on a hot seat for this year and have penned a synoptic view of the NFL as of this preseason; those expositions provide some room for me to be shown up publicly, but they pale by comparison by what is to follow here.  All I am going to try to do today is to predict the final regular season record for each and every NFL team.

  • What could possibly go wrong?

In case anyone thinks the errors of my prognostications here will be buried in the passage of time, I will revisit each of the predications in January or February of 2027 and give myself academic grades for accuracy.  Those post-mortem exercises are sobering and no laughing matter.

There used to be a guy on sports radio in the DC area many years ago named Ken Beatrice.  His mantra was that he would give you his opinion and the data that informed his opinion.  He would then say that is the best that he could do because he did not have a crystal ball.  Ken Beatrice is off in the cosmos somewhere, but I mention him here because his mantra is completely appropriate for this undertaking.  Onward …

I too lack a crystal ball; in fact, even if I had one, it would probably be filled with fog.  So, let me begin with the most global prediction for the day:

  • The NFC will have a total of 141 wins in 2026.
  • The AFC will have a total of 131 wins in 2026.

Let me start with the AFC East where I predict a cumulative record of 29-39-0.

  • Bills – 11-6-0:  The Bills will win the Division this year with a new coach and presumably an improved defense – – not a really good defense, but one that can hold a lead provided by Josh Allen and company.  Just mentioning the name Josh Allen prompts me to say that he is THE engine of any Bills’ success in 2026; he is now 30 years old, and this should be one of his peak performance seasons.
  • Pats – 10-7-0:  The Pats are the only team in the Division that can challenge the Bills.  I think the Pats will fall short this year for several reasons:
    • They will have to deal with Super Bowl hangover.
    • They have a much more difficult schedule this year compared to 2025.
    • The Pats will not “sneak up” on anyone in 2026.
  • Nevertheless, the Pats did add an important weapon in the offseason when they acquired AJ Brown from the Eagles and don’t sleep on the addition of Romeo Doubs as another improvement for the passing game. They may not win their Division, but I expect to see the Pats in the playoffs and to see them acquit themselves well there.
  • Jets – 5-12-0:  Yes, I have the Jets finishing out of the basement in the AFC East this year.  The team traded away their two best defensive players at the trading deadline last year and “stocked up” on draft picks.  I anticipate that Aaron Glenn and his staff recognize that they are coaching for their jobs in 2026 and will have those “young studs” motivated to play hard.  Yes, I know; the Jets also cast their lot with Geno Smith at QB and that he has been an interception machine recently.  So, I think the Jets will be “better” this year which is no high hurdle for them since they finished 2025 with a record of 3-14-0.
  • Dolphins – 3-14-0:  This team is under reconstruction and by releasing Tua Tagovailoa in the Spring, they will compete in 2026 with almost $100M in “dead money” on their cap calculations.   The team has a new coach and presumably a new vector heading, but the roster seems a bit thin.  De’Von Achane is a quality RB; but the QB depth chart is Malik Willis, Quinn Ewers, Cam Miller and Mark Gronkowski – – pending final cutdowns.  It will be a long season in Miami.

Let me move now to the AFC North where I predict a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

  • Ravens – 11-6-0:  I see the Ravens winning the Division with Lamar Jackson shrugging off a 2025 season that was mediocre by his standards.  The Ravens have a new coach, and Jesse Minter arrives with a defensive pedigree which is the part of the game where the Ravens stumbled most in 2025.  In addition to a defensive focus on the coaching staff, the Ravens acquired Trey Hendrickson in the offseason which should help with on-field performance.  One cautionary note here; the Ravens have only two dependable WRs on the depth chart as of this morning (Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman).  The team cannot afford longstanding injuries in that department.
  • Bengals – 10-7-0:  It has been a while since the Bengals invested significant resources in their defense; that showed clearly in 2025 as the Bengals gave up 28.9 points per game.  In this offseason, the Bengals acquired the services of Dexter Lawrence for the DL and Boye Mafe as an edge rusher to replace Trey Hendrickson who is with the Ravens now.  In recent  years, the Bengals have started very slowly and then had to work to dig out of the hole they put themselves in.  Hopefully, the coaching staff has figured out what they need to do to avoid such a start in 2026.
  • Steelers – 8-9-0:  That’s right; for the first time in 18 seasons, the Steelers will have a record below .500.  The Steelers are not just an experienced/veteran team; the Steelers are an old team.  There is plenty of talent there but much of that talent is reputation built in previous seasons.  Mike McCarthy is a good coach – much better than the reputation he carries around – but he will need to pull multiple rabbits out of multiple hats along the way in 2026 to get the Steelers over .500 once again.
  • Browns – 5-12-0:  This is the same record the Browns posted in 2025, and I have no reason to think that the team will be significantly better or worse in 2026.  Todd Monken is the new coach, and he will be the one who gets to figure out if Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders gives the team the best chance to win games.  The defense will still be good even with the removal of Myles Garrett who cannot be replaced by anyone else on that roster.  Browns’ fans should start looking forward to a nice high draft pick starting around Halloween.

Next up will be the AFC South where I predict a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

  • Texans – 11-6-0:  The Texans have an elite defense – one that is good enough to get them to the Super Bowl; that defense only gave up 17.3 points per game in 2025.  What the Texans also have is an unreliable offense that sometimes sputters to the point where is struggles to make double digits on the scoreboard.  The biggest weakness on offense was not CJ Stroud – even though he did regress in his performance in 2025.  The biggest weakness was the OL which had Stroud scrambling for his life too many times.
  • Jags – 10-7-0:  Losing LB, Devin Lloyd, who had an All-Pro season in 2025 is going to cost the Jags’ defense.  The same goes for the loss of two DBs (Andrew Wingard and Greg Newsome).  Yes, Trevor Lawrence and the offense came to life under Liam Coen last year, but I don’t think the offense can account for all those losses on defense and hence, the record shows 3 fewer wins in 2026.
  • Colts – 9-8-0:  The importance of Daniel Jones to the team was clearly on display in 2025; before he was injured, the Colts were flirting with the best record in the league; then they stumbled home with an 8-9-0 record losing their last 7 games in a row.  So, is Daniel Jones fully recovered such that he can pick up where he left off in mid-season last  year?  That is the biggest question surrounding the Colts as of now, but another puzzler is the defense up front; I am not convinced that is a stalwart unit.
  • Titans – 4-13-0:  This is a team that could surprise on the upside; Cam Ward has Brian Daboll as the Offensive Coordinator and Daboll is good in that role.  So, this will be an interesting test to see if Ward really has the makings of a “franchise QB”.  If Ward disappoints, there is not much success behind him in the QB room (Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis and Herndon Hooker).  I also expect that the Titans’ defense will be better this year than last year with Robert Saleh settling in on the sidelines; last year the Titans gave up 28.1 points per game, and the offense simply could not keep up.

Now, on to the AFC West where I predict a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

  • Chargers – 10-7-0:  I think the acquisition of Mike McDonald as Offensive Coordinator will be a big deal for the Chargers.  He may have washed out as the head coach in Miami, but he has a solid résumé and an OC.  And he has a talented QB to work with in Justin Herbert this year. The “concern” this year is the same as the one last year – – the OL.  Injuries to both offensive tackles were impossible to overcome; can both guys be back and hold up in 2026?  The Chargers acquired center, Tyler Biadasz, in free agency this year and he will spend 2026 on Injured reserve.  Ladd McConkey is a solid WR; it would be very nice for another player on the roster at that position to assert themselves in 2026.
  • Chiefs – 10-7-0:  They lose the Division on a tiebreaker with the Chargers but will make the playoffs.  Obviously, the key question here is the degree to which Patrick Mahomes has recovered/rehabbed from his surgery late last season.  Adding RB, Kenneth Walker III, from the Seahawks is a big plus for the team; losing Trent McDuffie in a trade that brought back draft picks will be a negative for the team in 2026.  One other question mark for the Chiefs is the production they can get from Travis Kelce; last year was far from his peak productivity so can that be reversed in 2026?
  • Broncos – 9-8-0:  I realize that I am in the minority here, but I am not sold on Bo Nix.  I recognize that Sean Payton is orchestrating that offense and that he has had plenty of success with QBs whose skill sets were limited, and I know that the Broncos defense is very good.  But when I look at the schedule, I don’t see the Broncos being much better than .500.  [Aside: Be prepared to laugh at me when the Broncos go 14-3-0 and have home field advantage in the AFC playoffs …]
  • Raiders – 5-12-0:  This is an improvement over 2025 of two full wins.  The team is undergoing major reconstruction, so this is the price the fans have to pay.  There is lots of hope around Fernando Mendoza and his potential upside, but the best thing that could happen to the Raiders is to play Kirk Cousins through Thanksgiving and then let Mendoza finish out the season after the team’s BYE Week in December; that would be 5 starts for the rookie after his sideline tutorial in September, October and November.  Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach, and he comes with impressive offensive cred.

 So, here is my prediction for the AFC Playoffs:

  • Seed #1:  Ravens
  • Seed #2:  Bills
  • Seed #3:  Texans
  • Seed #4:  Chargers
  • Seed #5:  Chiefs
  • Seed #6:  Pats
  • Seed #7:  Bengals

And with that as the prelude, let me turn to the NFC and start with the NFC West where I predict a cumulative record of 35-33-0.

  • Rams – 12-5-0:  In 2025, the Rams scored 30 points per game and gave up 20 points per game.  The offense is pretty much the same and they added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to the defense.  The reason why I don’t think their record will improve over last season’s is that they have a very difficult schedule and have 4 guaranteed difficult contests against the Seahawks and the Niners.  Last year, Matthew Stafford was questionable with a back injury; that did not debilitate him in 2025 and there seems to be no focus on that again in 2026.  Will Aaron Donald return from retirement this year to join in the fun and games?
  • Seahawks – 11-6-0:  The reigning Super Bowl champs are not going to win their Division this year but are going to be a force majeure in the playoffs.  Why the 3-win dropoff for 2026?
    • Every team on their schedule will be gunning to prove that they are equally as capable as the Super Bowl champs.
    • It is unlikely that they can match last year’s points per game allowance – – 17.1 points per game.
    • The “Super Bowl Hangover” is a real thing.  Most reigning champs do not repeat.
  • Losing OC, Klint Kubiak, to the Raiders as the head coach there, is unlikely to help Sam Darnold continue his miraculous in-career renaissance; if reports I have read are correct, Kubiak’s replacement, Brian Fleury has never had a season’s worth of play calling responsibility.
  • Niners – 10-7-0:  I recognize that Kyle Shanahan has always found ways to plug in behind injured players and come up with winning records.  In fact, that is why I have them with a winning record here; injuries always haunt the Niners, and this season does not look as if it will buck the trend.  Can Nick Bosa and Fred Warner stay available on defense in 2026?  If so, this win estimate may be a bit low.  Injury reports out of training camp are always gut-punches to fans; Niners’ fans have become inured to injury reports.
  • Cards – 2-15-0:  Yup.  This is the team that needs its college scouting department to do an outstanding job because I think the Cards will have the lead-off pick in the important Draft rounds in 2027.  The Cards finally reached an agreement with Jacoby Brisset to play QB for them in 2026.  Brisset is not a franchise QB; Brisset is a competent game-starter.  His performance is not the reason the Cards went 3-14-0 in 2025 – – but he is also not the reason the Cards are going to win a bunch of games in 2026.  Running back, Jeremiyah Love, is used to running behind dominant offensive lines at Notre Dame; he Is in for a shock with the group in front of him this year.
    • Memo for Cards’ fans:  Watch lots of college football games to convince yourselves that salvation for the Cards is just a couple of proper picks away.

Off we go to the NFC South where I have the cumulative division record at 32-36-0.

  • Bucs – 9-8-0:  I have the Bucs returning to the top of this division after posting a losing record (8-9-0) in 2025 and losing the tiebreaker to the Panthers for the Division title.  I know that Baker Mayfield is the Bucs’ QB; even so, I still believe the Bucs have the best starting QB in that Division.  Here is a “franchise-level question”:
    • IF Todd Bowles and his team win the Division with a 9-8-0 record for the fourth time in five years and then go “one-and-done” in the playoffs, will that be enough to keep the team together through the next offseason?
  • Saints – 8-9-0:  The Saints rallied from a horrendous start to the season to finish at 6-11-0 last year.  I don’t see them as a threat to any of the top contenders in the conference, but they could well post an improved record in 2026.  Losing their first-round pick to an injury in Training Camp was not positive news for a franchise seeking to elevate.
  • Panthers – 8-9-0:  I vacillated on this one a lot; in one of my record considerations, I had the Panthers at 4-13-0 with the franchise undergoing a catastrophic collapse under a mercurial owner.  8-9-0 is the same record the Panthers achieved in 2025 when they won the Division and went to the playoffs for a cameo appearance.  Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan can provide some offensive firepower, but will it be enough?  The  Panthers were in the playoffs in 2025 even though they gave up 69 points more than they scored in the regular season.  I don’t see that happening again…
  • Falcons – 7-10-0:  Harnessing your team to either Michael Penix, Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa is pretty much like choosing between Scylla and Charybdis – – if you will allow me a reference to The Odyssey here.
    • Penix is often injured and not overly accurate when he is in the game.
    • Tagovailoa is often injured and “erratic at best” from game to game.
  • The Falcons have an elite RB and a couple of top-shelf pass catchers, but until and unless someone asserts himself at QB, they will be wandering in the wilderness.  If the Falcons were in a more dominant division, I would not have them anywhere near 7 wins for the season.

Next up is the NFC North – – the strongest division in the NFL for this year – – where I predict the cumulative record to be 40-28-0.

  • Lions – 11-6-0:  I have the Lions winning the Division.  The offense will be top-shelf, and I think the defense can show better than in 2025 when injuries played a big part in the season results.  FYI, the Lions finished last in the Division last season and by finishing last in the División they draw an easier schedule this year than their Division rivals.  Check this out:
    • Lions – Division Losers in 2025 – play the Cards, Giants and Titans as their differentiated schedule from the rest of the Division.
    • Bears – Division Winners in 2025 – play the Eagles, Jags and Seahawks as their differentiated schedule from the rest of the Division.
  • Losing David Montgomery to the Texans is a big deal, but the Lions hope to share snaps at RB between Jahmyr Gibbs and Isiah Pacheco this year.
  • Bears – 10-7-0:  The Bears surprised just about everyone last year posting a record of 11-6-0 and winning the Division by a game-and-a-half.  There is no element of “surprise” left for the Bears and the schedule is not an easy one by any means (see above).  I believe that Ben Johnson’s offense will give major amounts of agita to defensive coordinators around the league and it would not be a huge surprise to see the defense improve just a bit.
  • Packers – 10-7-0:  Put the Packers in third place in the Division based on tiebreakers.  The major question overhanging the Packers this season is really two questions:
    • How long until Micah Parsons can return to action?
    •  How long until Micah Parsons can return to action and play like Micah Parsons 1.0?
  • Vikes – 9-8-0:  This prognostication could easily be off by 4 wins in either direction.  Kevin O’Connell might just resurrect the career of Kyler Murray the way he did for Sam Darnold, and the Vikes just might win 13 or 14 games.  On the other hand, Murray may be a certified mediocrity at QB and JJ McCarthy is no better and the Vikes in this tough division might finish with only about 5 wins.  The only prediction I feel comfortable about related to the Vikes is that Brian Flores’ defense will be efficient and effective and they will blitz a lot.

Last but not least, here is the NFC East where I see a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

  • Eagles – 10-7-0:  Yes, I have the Eagles wining the Division again in 2026, but rest assured that this is the most tenuous division winner in this entire set of predictions.  I will defer to many reporters who say that Sean Mannion is the next offensive wunderkind in the NFL even though he has never had the responsibility for calling plays.  I will assume that Jalen Hurts can adapt to yet one more new OC this season.  I will assume the OL will open more holes for Saquon Barkley this year than they did against stacked defenses in 2025.  And most of all, I will assume that with Devonta Smith taking over “WR #1 duties” that someone else on the roster will become a better-than-average “WR #2”.  Other than those minor worries, I have the Eagles winning the Division and making the playoffs in 2026.
  • Cowboys – 9-8-0:  Here is another tricky one.  The Cowboys’ offense is elite and should be able to score even more than the 27.7 points per game from last  year.  So, can the defense hold up its end of the bargain?  In 2025, the Cowboys’ defense was embarrassing; they don’t need to be “historically great” in 2026 to make the Cowboys serious opponents week to week, but they have to be better than they were last season when they gave up 30 points per game.
  • Commanders – 8-9-0:  Jayden Daniels’ multiple injuries derailed the Commanders’ season in 2025 leading to this year’s question:
    • Is Daniels back to his 2024 form or has the elapsed time allowed defensive coordinators to devise ways to make him less explosive?
    • Of course, the secondary question there is can Daniels avoid more injuries this year; he was of injury concern coming out of college and has had a full year of injury history in his young NFL career.
  • The Commanders revamped their defense entirely over this offseason and that is a good thing because that defense stunk in spades last season.  One interesting thing to watch on defense is that a rookie – – Sonny Styles – – is being called on as the play-caller on defense in his first year.  He is replacing future Hall of Famer, Bobby Wagner, in that role and even though Wagner had lost a step or two in 2025, he was always near the ball if not on the ball.  Can Sonny Styles equal that as a rookie?
  • Giants – 7-10-0:  The biggest positive change for the Giants in 2026 is that with John Harbaugh on the sidelines, the team is under adult supervision.  The last time I could confidently say that was in 2015 when Tom Coughlin was the Giants’ head coach.  I like Jaxon Dart; I like the Giants’ front seven on defense; I like the Giants’ OL.  This is a team on the rise with more than a handful of very good young players.

So, here is my playoff seeding in the NFC:

  • Seed #1:  Rams
  • Seed #2:  Lions
  • Seed #3:  Eagles
  • Seed #4:  Bucs
  • Seed #5:  Seahawks
  • Seed #6:  Bears
  • Seed #7:  Niners

And before I sign off today, here are my thoughts on which team will go “worst to first” in their divisions this year:

  • Cards:  Last in 2025 and will be last again in 2026
  • *Saints:  Last in 2025 but could win a bleak division here in 2026
  • *Lions:  Last in 2025 and I have picked them to win the NFC North this year
  • Giants:  Last in 2025; they will be better in 2026 but not that much better
  • Jets:  Last in 2025; they will improve in 2026 but nowhere near the division champs.
  • Browns:  Last in 2025 and last again in 2026
  • Titans:  Last in 2025; they should improve a little but not nearly enough in 2026
  • Raiders:  Last in 2025 and last again in 2026.

And one last thing to look for this year is a team that won their division in 2025 who might finish last in that division in 2026 – – the “first to worst” horror show:

  • Seahawks:  No way they finish below the Cards
  • *Panthers:  Prime candidates for this ignominy
  • *Bears:  The Division is so tough that this could happen
  • Eagles:  They may take a step back in 2026 but not so far as to trail the Giants
  • Pats:  They are safe given the presence of the Jets and Dolphins in the Division
  • Steelers:  Could take a step back but enough to finish below the Browns?
  • Jags:  Not happening in 2026 with the Titans in the same Division
  • Broncos:  Will not finish below the Raiders.

            Finally, since embarrassing myself is such a large part of this offering, let me close with a few notes on embarrassment:

“For my first show at ‘SNL’, I wrote a Bill Clinton sketch, and during our read-through, it wasn’t getting any laughs. This weight of embarrassment came over me, and I felt like I was sweating from my spine out. But I realized, ‘Okay, that happened, and I did not die.’ You’ve got to experience failure to understand that you can survive it.”  [Tina Fey]

And …

“Embarrassment is where growth happens.”  [Jaylen Brown]

And …

“The rate at which a person can mature is directly proportional to the embarrassment he can tolerate.” [Douglas Engelbart]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………