Category: Daily Rants

Yesterday, I mentioned that MLB was considering expanding its playoff participation to 14 of is 30 teams.  I said that was a bad idea and I continue to believe it is a bad idea.  Some folks are trying to make the case that expanding the playoff possibilities will make it less attractive for teams to tank a season or two as a rebuilding step.  That sounds good – – but it is poppycock.  In an expanded playoff situation, the target for slipping in as the 7^th best team in either league would be 85-87 wins.  That is outside the range of possibility for a team that has decided that it needs to rebuild via a bunch of high draft picks over a year or three.

Let’s look at last year; in the AL, the seventh team was the Cleveland Indians and they won an astonishing 93 games and missed the playoffs.  The Royals, Orioles and Tigers won fewer than 60 games; is it reasonable to suggest they would have been focused on that #7 playoff slot any time past May 1^st?

In the National League, things were a bit different.  The seventh team in the playoffs would have been the NY Mets who won 86 games.  That result would have generated some late season interest among fans of the Mets, Cubs and D-Backs who made it to the wire separated by only 2 games – – but the bottom of the NL had 4 teams with 71 or fewer wins.

Rather than try to take this bad idea and try to adorn it with glitter that it does not deserve, please identify this for what it is.

• It is a cash grab – – and there is NOTHING wrong with that.

MLB is a business; it is not a philanthropic entity; it is not a charity; it is not a humanitarian organization.  It is a business, and businesses exist to make a profit.  See; it’s not that difficult to speak truth here.  With that out of the way, you can begin to think about all the other details of this proposal and how they will increase or decrease your interest in the baseball playoffs in September/October.

And by the way, if in fact the suits in the MLB executive suites want to reduce the reflex of bad teams to decide to tank a year or three, let me offer a suggestion that will pucker up a few alimentary canal egresses there:

• There needs to be a salary floor for every team’s opening day roster and a weighted average floor for the team salary throughout the season.

Let me step back and wait for the cries of “WTF?” quiet down in the MLB Front Office.  Now, take a look at the 2019 Opening Day payrolls for the teams.

• The Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees were all between $221M and $229M
• The Marlins, Orioles, Pirates and Rays were all between $64M and $76M.

The Rays shocked the world last year and made the playoffs; those other three teams were never in the running for a break-even season let alone a playoff spot and that was obvious very early on.  [Aside:  The combined payrolls of the Marlins, Orioles and Pirates last year was about the same as that of the Cubs who had the 3^rd highest payroll on Opening Day.]

The way to incentivize teams to give each season an honest effort is to make every team invest a minimum amount of money in the players on their roster.  Looking at numbers for 2020, the projected average for MLB is $129M for Opening Day payroll.  The extremes are almost obscene:

• Yankees $245M
• Dodgers $291M
• Astros $206M
• …
• Pirates $49M
• Marlins $46M
• Orioles $45M

[Aside:  The Orioles will pay Chris Davis $21.1M this year meaning that the other 24 players projected for the Orioles Opening Day roster will make a total of $24M.  If that is not tanking, I don’t know what is.]

I do not mean to pick on the Pirates, Marlins and Orioles here; there are 11 of the 30 MLB clubs with Opening Day payrolls less than $100M for 2020.  As long as there is any form of revenue sharing and it is acceptable via the CBA to allow teams to have that large a disparity in payrolls, tanking is going to happen – and adding another level to the playoffs is not going to stop it.

Tim Cowlishaw is probably most widely known as one of the talking heads on ESPN’s Around the Horn.  In “real life”, Cowlishaw is a columnist for the Dallas Morning News and a good one.  Recently, he had a column devoted to the proposition that the voting process for the Hall of Fame in MLB and in the NFL has gotten out of hand.  He suggests that perhaps having writers be the voters for such honors is not the best system.  I cannot do that column justice with a precis here so let me encourage you to read it in its entirety here.

Buried in the middle of this column is a sentence that shocked me and made me go looking to confirm its validity:

“… if you think there’s an issue with the current voters, who put in the time poring over more numbers than anyone ever imagined would be available, look back into the early days of the Hall of Fame.  Joe DiMaggio made it on his fourth try!”

Keep that in mind the next time you hear someone complain about a player being “snubbed” for any level of honor in any sport.  Joe DiMaggio did not get 75% of the vote until his fourth try; in his first year on the ballot, he only got 44% of the vote.

Finally, here is Tweet from syndicated columnist Norman Chad:

“XFL’s LA Wildcats fired def coordinator Pepper Johnson after one game. Like Jerry Glanville once said, the XFL stands for Not For Long. (Betting Tip: Take the Wildcats next week – they’ve never lost two in a row.)”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is another day filled with sports reports that involve the intersection of sports and money.  Let me start with MLB where the NY Post reports that the execs there are considering expansion of the playoffs from 10 teams to 14 teams.  The playoffs would consist of the three division winners and four wild card teams.  The team with the best overall record would be the one to get a bye in the first round of the league playoffs.

There is money to be made here from increased numbers of playoff games on television.  Having said that, this is a horrible idea.  There are only 30 MLB teams and this plan would put virtually half of them in the playoffs.  There are lulls in the 162-game regular season as it is, but this will drain excitement from those games not add to the significance of many of them.  The “threshold” for a playoff slot could be as low as 85 wins in the regular season; is that what I need to see in any sort of playoff format?

The NFL is also considering a change that will goose their revenues a bit; the league is considering extending flex scheduling to Monday Night Football once they get into negotiations with networks on new broadcast rights deals.  There was a time when the Monday night game was a really big deal; it is now second in terms of “special-ness” to the Sunday night game partly because the NFL has done flex-scheduling with that Sunday night game for late season contests.  That means that NBC and the other partners have some degree of control over what game is played at which time of day as the games take on more and more playoff significance.  The Monday night game has never been part of that discussion.

Giving the holder of the Monday night rights a bit more control over what game it puts on has to increase the potential value of that rights deal to the network.  On a Monday night in early December, a Monday night game between two teams with 4-9 records as they kick off is a ratings dud.  It may have looked like an interesting pairing back in June when the schedule was finalized, but it looks like a giant cow pie in early December and the Monday Night Football folks can’t do anything about it.

That is the upside.  Here is the downside…  Let’s imagine that the game that has been flexed from Sunday to Monday has 65,000 fans who have purchased tix to the game.  It would be annoying – and moderately inconvenient – if those fans thought that their tix were for a game that kicked off at 1:00 PM but had been flexed to Sunday night where kickoff would be 8:30 PM.  For many fans, that would be no big deal; but if a father was planning on taking his 3 kids to that afternoon game, the switch to a late-night scenario might be a problem.  Also, for the person who must be at work early on Monday, that could be a problem.

Now add to the scheduling inconvenience, a change of the day of the game as well as the time of the game.  If only 5% of the fans are inconvenienced sufficiently to be angry over the “flexing” that represents 3250 upset fans.  And among the upset fans would surely be the ones for visiting teams that booked flights and hotels to travel to see their home team play a road game.  That is a loyal fanbase the league ought not seek to disaffect.

On a more positive note, MLS and the MLSPA have reached an agreement for a new CBA that extends over 5 years.  According to reports, the new agreement has several advances for the players:

• Expanded free agency – players eligible at age 24 with 5 years in MLS
• Increased salary levels and salary flexibility for teams.  Minimum salary level will increase by 56% over the 5-year term of this CBA
• More charter flights for away games.  The minimum number of charter flights will quadruple over the period of this CBA.

Here is a link to a report in the Washington Post with more of the details of this new CBA if you are interested.

The last “money issue” I want to talk about today relates back to the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal – with the expectation that time will reveal that they were not the only team to do such a thing.  The folks who run sports entities often resort to rhetorical flourish when they refer to “the integrity of the game”.  MLB has a problem on its hands, and it is not going to be easy to rid itself of that problem with a wave of the hand and a few punishments handed out to managers and execs followed by rhetorical flourish.  Major League Baseball has a history of cheating; it is well known, and it has been explained away in the past as isolated incidents of “gamesmanship”.  Let me hit a couple of highlights all of which come decades after the Black Sox scandal in 1919:

• The movement of the outfield fences by Bill Veeck depending on which visiting team was in town.
• Turning the base path between first base and second base into a sandpit or a watery bog when Maury Wills came to town.
• Pitchers using spitballs, shine balls, scuffed balls and the like over long and storied careers.
• Team owners colluding to frustrate the free agency process – – and getting caught to the tune of about $300M.
• PEDs – – ‘nuff said.
• Electronic sign-stealing and “codebreaking”.

In addition to the common thread of “cheating”/” breaking the rules” here, the other common thread is that the only time a significant punishment was involved was in the “collusion crisis” in the 1980s.  All the rest of these “cheating” incidents were glossed over – – and the current one is about to be glossed over as soon as the Commish announces whatever he found regarding the Red Sox activities were regarding the current crisis.

MLB is right to worry about “the integrity of the game” because it has ignored cheating scandals in the last century to the point where the next “attempt to get an edge” by some player or team is not going to be a big surprise.  There is a ban on betting in baseball; that is why Pete Rose is out of baseball; that is why the owner of the Phillies back on the ‘40s had to sell the team; there is a punishment with teeth in it and even that cannot guarantee compliance.  A slap on the wrist here will not have any deterrence effect at all – and that will be a big problem for MLB.

Finally, here is a Tweet from syndicated columnist Norman Chad:

“HOUSTON ASTROS FEBRUARY SCHEDULE:

Feb. 22: First Grapefruit League game vs. Nationals

Feb. 16: Spring training officially begins

Feb. 11: Pitchers and catchers report

Feb. 10: New sign-stealing tech support staff orientation”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

XFL 2.0 launched over the weekend.  There are some positives and some negatives attached to that statement, and I want to go over some of them.  Of the 4 games on the air, I watched about 9 quarters of the 16 available; here are some observations:

• Plus:  Attendance looked reasonable for two of the games.  The DC/Seattle game played in a stadium that seats 20,000 looked virtually full. [Announced attendance was 17,125.]  The NY/Tampa game played in the Meadowlands had a similar announced attendance, but the crowd looked bigger than that on TV.
• Minus:  The TV commentators need to focus on the games in front of them and maybe an interesting storyline or two.  The constant references to “novelty” and “revolutionary” got very old.
• Plus: The games demonstrated competence for players and coaches.  This was not helter-skelter sandlot football.  At the same time, this is definitely minor-league pro football and not something that is a hair’s breadth away from the NFL product.
• Minus:  There are FAR TOO MANY on-field interviews with players and coaches and just about anyone involved with the game on the sidelines.  And with players mic-ed up, the folks manning the “dump button” need to be far more alert in the future.
• Plus:  PJ Walker is the QB for the Houston Roughnecks.  He was running around out there looking like DeShaun Watson of the Houston Texans.  I suspect he will be a fan favorite there.
• Minus:  A couple of the TV commentators got a bit loose with their language and required the use of the “dump button”.  I am certainly no prude, but that is totally unnecessary.
• Plus:  Some of the innovative rules for XFL 2.0 are good ones.  I like the league’s PAT options; I really like the transparency of the booth reviews; the pace of the game is better than the NFL or college football.

If you are interested, here is a link to a report at CBSSports.com that will explain many of the rule differences between XFL 2.0 and the NFL – or college football.

To some degree, the long-term viability of XFL 2.0 will depend on its acceptance by bettors.  Notwithstanding the impurity brought to the game by low-life gamblers, the fact is that a large measure of the NFL’s dominance of US sports is due to the widespread use of the games as a vehicle for wagering.  I don’t know how bettors will view XFL 2.0, but if it turns out to be a big deal, then the league has an avenue toward “growth” over and above “survival”.

Dwight Perry acknowledged the importance of gambling to the new football league obliquely in the Seattle Times last weekend:

“Sure sign you might have a gambling problem: You missed Super Bowl LIV because you were at your XFL fantasy-league draft.”

Professor Perry is not all that far off.  One of the banner ads on an Internet sports site over the weekend invited me to sign up for Daily Fantasy contests involving XFL 2.0.  Seriously…

Allow me to interrupt this rant with an important notice:

• Memo to Iowa:  The Chiefs beat the Niners in the Super Bowl by a score of 31-20.  Thought you would like to know the final result …

Regarding the MLB sign-stealing scandal, Henry Aaron last week said that everyone involved in the cheating should be banned from baseball for life.  That is a harsh position to take but it is not an outrageous one.  The underlying principle of MLB’s ironclad rule about betting on games is the defense of “the integrity of the game”.  Well, “integrity” also takes a significant blow when teams – or players or managers or whomever – find ways to cheat to affect the outcomes.  The “integrity of the games” need not be tied solely to the winners or losers of wagers; the “integrity of the game” has a fundamental tie to the statistical outcomes of those games.  I am not convinced that Henry Aaron’s call for a lifetime ban from baseball is appropriate here, but I am sure of two things:

1. Even though the Commish promised immunity for players who provided information in MLB’s investigation, there is something fundamentally wrong with the idea that those players who actively participated in the cheating – and benefited from it – are immune from any and all punishment.
2. The person making the call for a lifetime ban is Henry “Bleeping” Aaron.  This man has been in and around baseball for about 70 years; he is an ambassador for the game; his opinion(s) command attention simply because they are his opinion(s).

In terms of stature regarding baseball, I was trying to think of the half-dozen or so people who might be on the same level of “authority” as Henry Aaron.  Here is my list; if these folks also believe that a lifetime ban is appropriate, then I would have to reassess my position.

• Bob Gibson
• Derek Jeter
• Sandy Koufax
• Willie Mays
• Cal Ripken
• Mariano Rivera
• Nolan Ryan
• Carl Yastrzemski

Finally, as I mentioned last week, people will use the storyline related to where Tom Brady will play football next year as filler until such time as he signs a contract for next year.  Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel expressed his opinion for the line of thinking that has Brady playing for the Tampa Bay Bucs in 2020:

“Not to be mean, but putting Tom Brady on the Bucs would be like putting the Mona Lisa in Room 217 of the Red Roof Inn.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

#2 son provided me with the following tidbit.  Kyle Shanahan was on the sidelines for two of the biggest 4^th quarter comebacks in Super Bowl history – – but he was on the “wrong sideline”.  He was the offensive coordinator and play-caller for the Falcons when the Pats rallied from a 28-3 deficit to win the game in OT; this year, he was the head coach for the Niners who led by 10 points in the middle of the 4^th quarter and lost by 10 points in regulation.  Combining those games, here is a stunning statistic:

• In those two Super Bowl contests, from the time when there were 10 minutes left to play in the 4^th quarter until the game was over (the Pats game went to OT), the teams with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays were outscored 46-0.

That is a head-shaker to be sure.  Shanahan deserves plenty of blame for his failure to run the ball and eat up some clock in the Pats game, but I am not so sure his play calling was seriously in question last weekend.  That stat is a serious indictment on the defensive coordinator and the defensive players in those two games.  The Falcons’ defense was simply gassed at the end of their game and the Niners’ defense gave up all of the big plays it would surrender for the day in the final minutes.  Amazing statistic…

Speaking of NFL defenses and defensive coordinators, the Raiders fired their defensive coordinator, Brenston Buckner, and hired Rod Marinelli to take that job.  The basis for that hiring and firing decision is simple; Marinelli was with Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay as the Bucs’ defensive line coach when the Bucs won the Super Bowl there in January 2003.  Putting that aside for just a moment, here is why this move is surprising:

• Marinelli is 70 years old.  I doubt that anyone sees him as any sort of “innovator” on defense.
• Buckner became the Raiders’ defensive coordinator in 2019.  He inherited a defense that was last in the NFL in sacks (13) and put a defense on the field last year that recorded 32 sacks.  That may not be an eye-popping total, but it is a 146% increase year-over-year.
• Marinelli’s most recent stint in the NFL has been as the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys – and no one would point to the Cowboys’ defense over the past two seasons as a model for all other teams to try to emulate.

Buckner was not “at loose ends” for long.  He must be held in some level of esteem around the league because he was hired by the Cardinals to be their defensive line coach in about 24 hours.

Division 1-A college football is a significant step down from the NFL and when you get to the bottom levels of Division 1-A college football one may need a parachute to get from the NFL to that level.  The UConn football program has been a low-level bottom feeder for several years now – and it just might be getting worse. Here is how bad it was in 2018:

• UConn gave up 50.4 points per game and 617.4 yards per game.

In 2019, UConn was 2-10 with those wins coming against Division 1-AA Wagner College and bottom-feeder-supremo, UMass.  Channeling the guy on the infomercials who hawks Oxi-Clean:

But wait!  There’s more…

Now that the NCAA has introduced the “transfer portal” to facilitate the processes by which a student-athlete can move from one school to another, there is an easy way to keep tabs on how many players may or may not be “on the move”.  A recent report at NBCSports.com said that 23 players on the UConn roster had entered the transfer portal.  A look at the 2019 UConn roster yields some interesting information:

• If I counted correctly there were 100 players on the roster for 2019.
• There were only 10 seniors on the team; not a lot of folks hung in there for 4 years of Husky football.
• Now according to the report, 23 other players have entered the transfer portal.  Assuming they successfully find a way out of Storrs, CT, that means 33% of last year’s team will not be there next year.
• If you are a player in the transfer portal who was not a starter or a player who got significant time last year, how might that player be viewed by other Division 1-A schools?  I would not be busting my butt to take on players who were starters from that team let alone bench jockeys.

UConn is leaving the AAC to join the non-football Big East Conference.  So, in addition to having a questionable roster for football, it is going to have to feel its way through the thicket of being an independent football team at the Division 1-A level – – or downgrade to Division 1-AA.  Here are the seven Division 1-A football independents for 2020:

1. Army
2. BYU
3. Liberty
4. New Mexico St.
5. Notre Dame
6. UConn
7. UMass

New Mexico State, UConn and UMass bring no glory at all to that list…

Randy Edsall is the head coach at UConn and is in his second stint there.  He took over in 2017 after a 6-year hiatus from the school.  In those 3 seasons since his return, the Huskies cumulative record has been 6-30.  I would say things are looking bleak inside the football program at UConn.

Finally, Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot this week.  Given the amount of commentary surrounding this topic, I find myself in complete agreement with him:

“Brief rant: I guess something’s wrong with me. Otherwise, I’d have a stronger reaction to the Super Bowl halftime show put on by two middle-aged women. But I don’t. For me, it was neither great nor controversial, perhaps because I was barely paying attention. But so many things media and people find spectacular or objectionable just aren’t. It’s tiresome.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Super Bowl is over; the KC Chiefs have already held their championship parade; the 2019 season is history.  That does not mean, however, that the NFL has entered a dark zone in terms of sports news.  Two issues related to scheduling are simmering this morning demonstrating that the NFL is never “out-of-season”.  The first issue deals with reports that the NFL and the NFLPA are still wrestling with the idea of a 17-game season as part of the new CBA they will have to forge before the end of next season.

Some players – such as Richard Sherman – do not like the 17-game season idea at all and Sherman says it is merely a cover for the league because the owners really want an 18-game schedule but they know they can’t sell that idea in this round of bargaining.  The basis for the players’ objection is fundamental:

• NFL games effect significant wear and tear on the bodies of the participants.

The competing argument is purely monetary:

• An added week of games puts more product on the airwaves meaning an increase in league revenues which are then applied to the salary cap calculation meaning total player compensation goes up.

I think the league is being a tad disingenuous as it tries to frame this issue in this way because I think there is another wrinkle to this scheme that goes beyond “more money in exchange for morel wear and tear on players’ bodies”.  Maybe I am “seeing ghosts” here – as did Sam Darnold earlier this season.  I think the owners see a way to increase the value of their franchises which is a boon to them and of no value to the players.  And it is rooted in the unassailable fact that “17” is an odd number of games.  Hear me out…

There is a home field advantage for teams.  Last year, home teams were 132-123-1; that is not an overwhelming edge, but it is a small edge.  When the season has an even number of games, each team has the same number of home games as they do away games; that cannot happen with an odd number of games.  Therefore, the league had to come up with a way to balance the schedule if they wanted to pursue a 17-game season and here is the solution:

• Each team would play 8 home games and 8 away games and 1 game at a neutral site.

That “neutral site game” is not a plus for the players; in fact, from their perspective, a neutral site game is an away game where they are away from home and family. However, the “neutral site game” has value for the owners:

• Attendance is likely to be strong if only for the novelty of the spectacle.
• Strong attendance MIGHT lead to local efforts to try to acquire a franchise by offering a new stadium at taxpayer expense with an attractive lease offer.
• Creating demand for franchises outside the geographical limits of the current footprint would increase franchise value.

I have exactly no evidence that this sort of thought process is in motion inside those CBA negotiations, but I’d be surprised if none of the billionaires who own the NFL teams hasn’t had that concept float through his/her mind.

Tangentially related to that scheduling issue is a league announcement yesterday that the Jacksonville Jaguars would be playing two home games on consecutive weeks at Wembley stadium in London.  That would be the first time that any NFL team has played two games – of any designation – outside the “lower 48” in a single season.  But it is more than that; these are two of the Jags’ home games that will take place in London.

It is not a secret that the Jags do not draw huge crowds at home; last year, the Jags ranked 22^nd in the league in home attendance.  Now before someone points out that the Jags were not a good team in 2019 and that could explain the relatively poor attendance, consider that three of the top five teams in home attendance had less than sterling records in 2019:

• Jets – – 2^nd in home attendance (78,523 per game) – – record was 7-9
• Broncos – – 4^th in home attendance (75,937 peer game) – – record was 7-9
• Giants – – 5^th in home attendance (74,664 per game) – – record was 4-12
• Jaguars – – 22^nd in home attendance (63,085 per game) – – record was 6-10

The Jags’ owners proclaim loudly that they are committed to keeping the team In Jax and have no intention of moving the team anywhere – – let alone London.  The fact that the Jags’ owner also owns the Fulham Football Club that plays in the English Championship League (one level below the Premier League and currently in position for promotion to the Premier League next year) has to make some fans in Jax “slightly on edge”.  Petitions to protest this scheduling decision have already begun – not that they are going to change any already made-up minds – and I think that poses a danger to the league.  Jax may not have tons of fans or the most passionate fans in the league, but this decision is a slap in the face to the fanbase that the team does enjoy.

Recall what I said above regarding games played on neutral sites – such as London Games.  They are actually “away games” for players on both teams.  In 2020, the Jags will play 6 real home games and 10 real away games including a two-week road trip where the team does not come home for family time during the intervening week.  Does that sound like a great selling point for free agents?

Finally, after Ben Simmons criticized the team as “soft” after a recent loss, this is the headline on the story in The Onion:

“Embarrassed Ben Simmons Retracts Criticism Of Sixers After Remembering He On Team”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

No need to go to the clipboard today to find something to rant about; plenty of stuff went down overnight that commands comment.  At the top of that list must be the apparent decision by the folks who run the Boston Red Sox to bag the 2020 season.  In a trade announced yesterday:

• The Red Sox give up Mookie Betts and David Price – and send an undisclosed but supposedly “significant” amount of cash away with Price to pay a portion of his salary for the next several years.
• The Red Sox get, in return, Alex Verdugo, and Brusdar Graterol.

Mookie Betts is only 27 years old; he was the AL MVP in 2018; he is a 4-time All-Star and has won 4 Gold Gloves.  Let’s just say that Alex Verdugo’s career to date does not quite reach those heights.

David Price is 34 years old; there is wear and tear on his tires.  The upcoming season will be his 13^th in MLB; back in 2012 – ancient history, I know – Price won the AL Cy Young award.  Graterol is much younger than Price – and far less accomplished.

The apparent motive here is that the Red Sox want to get under the “luxury tax threshold” for roster salary in 2020 which is set at $208M.  It is not unusual for “small market teams” to have player decisions forced upon them by economics but the Red Sox are one of the “revenue monsters” in MLB.  I am sure the Red Sox will assert that this is a move to “get younger” and will point to Graterol in his 20’s as opposed to Price at age 34.  The more they say that; the more convinced I will become that this was a “money decision”.

Oh, by the way, pitchers and catchers will be reporting in about two weeks and the Red Sox don’t have a manager as of this morning.  Now that the Front Office in Boston has rid itself of sufficient payroll to get under the luxury tax line, maybe they will find a moment to hire someone who can show up every day and pretend that the Re Sox are serious contenders in 2020.  The Red Sox won’t finish last in the AL East simply because the Orioles are in that division and will be fielding a AAA roster for most of 2020, but the Red Sox will not be threatening the Yankees this year.

This was a 3-way swap; but the key beneficiary here would be the LA Dodgers who acquire both Betts and Price in exchange for Kent Maeda (to the Twins) and Verdugo (to the Red Sox).  The Dodgers have to be the prohibitive favorites to win the NL West for the 8^th straight year.  They will have 3 former MVPs on the roster including last year’s NL MVP and Mookie Betts who own the AL MVP two seasons ago.  [The third former MVP is Clayton Kershaw from 2014.]  The only serious threat that the Dodgers face is their habit of coming up short in the playoffs or the World Series.

The next big thing that happened yesterday was the New Your Knickerbockers firing team president, Steve Mills.  Let me paint a landscape of his time in NY here:

• Mills has been part of the Knicks organization since 2013.
• In that time, the Knicks have had 6 different coaches.  Also, the Knicks hired – and subsequently fired – Phil Jackson leaving the team presidency open for Mills to occupy.
• Mills and his cohort GM Scott Perry made the Kristaps Porzingis trade saying it was motivated by their uncertainty that Porzingis would be a star player after his rehab from a serious injury.  That may be true, but what they got in return was bupkes.
• Mills and Perry also hatched the “strategy” of tanking for a shot at Zion Williamson along with having a ton of cap space that would attract Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in free agency last summer.  None of that happened…

Mills already played the “fire the coach card” earlier this year sending David Fizdale home.  Nonetheless, the Knicks record so far is 15-36 and they are no threat to make the playoffs starting in a couple of months.  Knicks’ fans ought to be accustomed to that situation by now:

• The Knicks have missed the playoffs for the last 6 years.
• Since 2001/02, the Knicks have been in the playoffs only 4 times and have lost in the first round 3 of those 4 times.

The franchise is a mess simply because the combination of “stability” and “competency” does not reside in the decision-makers.  Fans in New York chant “Sell The Team” which clearly infuriates owner James Dolan – – but seems only to get him to double down on his refusal to do just that.  However, it is Dolan who made the decision to hire Phil Jackson in the first place and then to fire him and replace him with Steve Mills who had never held a “basketball position” prior to becoming team president.  Mills entire career had been as a “business-side guy”.

The Knicks are a hot mess – – and yet I think there would be plenty of competent execs who would want to take the job.  The Knicks are hugely valuable so the team president could command a fat contract; more importantly, if the new guy on the block could convince the owner to lower his profile just a tad and then put a team on the floor that made the playoffs sometime in the next two years, that new guy on the block would rise to god-like status among the Garden faithful.  It would be worth the risk for a basketball guy; after all, failing as an exec for the Knicks with James Dolan at the top of the pyramid is not exactly seen as an indictment of one’s career.

The third big thing that went down yesterday is the retirement of Mark Dantonio from the position of head football coach at Michigan State.  He has been with the Spartans for 13 years in that job and he is now the winningest coach in history at the school.  Dantonio is 63 and he said that his retirement was motivated by the fact that he never got time off to just “come up for air”.

Clouding the issue here is the fact that Dantonio is the target of a lawsuit filed by a former school employee alleging that the employee’s contract was breeched when the school was investigating sexual misconduct claims against four former football players.  Dantonio said the suit had “zero” to do with his retirement decision but the timing is problematic here.  Moreover, he leaves the job just as “signing day” arrives which cannot be a plus for whatever recruiting class Michigan State attracts in 2020.

Finally, to put a punctuation mark on the NFL playoffs this year, consider this item from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Comedian Argus Hamilton, via Twitter, on the 49ers jumping to a 27-0 halftime lead over the Packers in the NFC Championship Game: ‘If Aaron Rodgers were covered by Allstate instead of State Farm, he would be protected from mayhem like this.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Willie Wood died yesterday.  Wood was a Hall of Fame defensive back for the “Vince Lombardi” Packers in the ‘60s.  In Super Bowl I his interception of a Len Dawson pass changed the momentum of the game and set the Packers up for a 35-10 win.  Willie Wood was an undrafted free agent who played QB in college – demonstrating once again that the NFL Draft is not nearly a science.

Rest in peace, Willie Wood…

Allow me a few more comments about Sunday’s Super Bowl game and telecast.  First, I thought that Joe Buck and Troy Aikman gave us an excellent account of the game.  They have no control over the whoop-di-do that accompanies a Super Bowl game presentation, but I thought they did a good job ignoring it/minimizing it and making a sensible call for the game.  I know there are folks who just don’t like Joe Buck and/or Troy Aikman for whatever reason(s), but I thought they did a really fine job on Sunday.  I was particularly pleased to see that Aikman offered criticism as well as praise during the game.  Often in a Super Bowl game, there is an over-abundance of praise emanating from the TV speakers.

I mentioned yesterday that my long-suffering wife and I watched the game in Philadelphia with a standard cadre of friends.  As you might expect, we do one of those Super Bowl pools where one answers questions such as:

• Coin toss, heads of tails?
• National anthem, over or under 2 minutes?
• Will both QBs complete their first pass attempt, yes or no?
• Will the first ad be for a vehicle, beverage or something else?
• Will Patrick Mahomes throw for 350 yards, over or under?
• You get the drift…

Sunday, I finished dead last in that pool.  My long-suffering wife had a better pool entry than I did.  I experienced the feeling of one amid a “walk of shame” …

Two members of the winning Chiefs’ team had reason to be doubly happy for the Super Bowl ring they will ultimately receive:

1. Austin Reiter:  He was drafted in the 7^th round of the 2015 NFL Draft by the Skins who had no use for him other than a slot on the practice squad.  In 2016, he signed on with the Browns as part of their active roster and was with the Browns for the 2016 and 2017 seasons which saw the Browns amass a record of 1-31-0.  The Browns cut him just before the start of the 2018 season and he signed on with the Chiefs the day after he was cut.  Austin Reiter escaped two of the most dysfunctional franchises in US sports and now has a Super Bowl ring.
2. Terrell Suggs:  He has been in the NFL since he was drafted by the Ravens in 2003.  He was a defensive mainstay for the Ravens and left that team to sign a one-year contract with the Cardinals just prior to the 2019 season.  In mid-December, the Cardinals simply released Suggs and there were reports that he did not “fit in” with what the Cardinals were trying to accomplish.  A few days later, he signed on with the Chiefs.  Terrell Suggs may not have “fit in” with whatever it is that the Cardinals were doing, but he fit in sufficiently with the Chiefs to be part of the defense that helped win him a second Super Bowl ring.

The WNBA and the WNBPA have reached a labor agreement that should assure labor peace through the 2027 season.  Some have called this agreement a turning point for the WNBA as a sporting entity and others have called this agreement a gamble.  WNBA Commissioner, Cathy Englebert seems to have embraced both descriptions calling the new CBA a “big bet on women” by the league.  Here are a few of the key element of the new deal:

• Total salary for the players will rise more than 50% over previous levels.
• “Landmark benefits for motherhood and family planning” are included.  [Aside: I have searched for specifics here but have not found them.]
• Better travel conditions.  [Aside: Presumably this will avoid a team pulling a no-show for a scheduled game due to travel snafus as happened with a WNBA game in the past.]

One of the concessions made by the players is an assurance that the players will show up for WNBA training camps from the opening of those camps.  That could mean that some top players will need to amend their lucrative overseas contracts to report to training camp “on time”.  I find that an interesting concession because players’ unions normally do not agree to conditions that might be deleterious to the interests of its top-shelf members.  Whatever…

To me, the statement by Ms. Englebert that this CBA is a “big bet on women” by the WNBA reflects the fact that WNBA teams lose money under the current economic constraints and the new CBA calls for team expenditures to rise significantly.  When a business is losing money, one might expect it to try to find ways to reduce costs as it simultaneously seeks to expand revenues.  That is not what this new CBA does.

In the major men’s sports in the US, the Commissioner’s main job is to grow revenues for the league as a whole while maintaining labor peace.  Commissioner Englebert seems to have accomplished the second part of that job meaning she needs to get to work on expanding league revenues.  Getting more fans to games is one obvious way to increase revenue – but that is a small piece of the action needed here.  The big drivers for increased revenue for the WNBA will come from better TV contracts and from corporate sponsorships.

Finally, since I mentioned my shame above, let me provide you with the definition of shame form The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Shame:  The realization that nobody else thinks the thing you were caught doing was as wholesome as you thought it was.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs – this year’s Super Bowl Champions.  The Niners ran off 17unanswered points between the late 2^nd quarter and the start of the 4^th quarter to take a 20-10 lead.  The Chiefs “had them right where they wanted them” and did the patented Chiefs’ “rally from behind thing” to post 3 TDs in the late stages of the game to win going away 31-20.  The Chiefs won 3 playoff games this year; they trailed by double digits in all three of those games and came back to win them all.

Demonstrating that QBs get more credit for success than may be deserved and more blame for defeat than may be deserved, consider the reaction to the performances of the two QBs here.

• Patrick Mahomes threw 3 TD passes and amassed more than 300 yards through the air and was the MVP for the game.  However, he also threw 2 ugly INTs and many of his passes were less than ideally placed for the first 3 quarters of the game.  But he did lead that comeback; the Chiefs did win; he is the MVP and the player bathed in glory.
• Jimmy Garoppolo threw only 1 ugly INT – it looked to me on the replay as if his eyes were closed as he let fly on that pass – and was far more accurate with his throws for the first 3 quarters of the game.  But he did not “get it done” in the final 8 minutes of the game and he is considered in some quarters as the “goat” as opposed to the “GOAT”.

Damien Williams scored 2 TDs in the game – and he was an undrafted free agent.  Kyle Juszczyk is a Harvard grad and also scored a TD in the game.  Come April when folks are obsessed with who gets taken where in the first round of the Draft, please recall that Juszczyk was a 4^th round pick from an Ivy League school and Williams was passed over by every team in the league in every round despite playing at Oklahoma. Oh, and he has been bouncing around the pro football world since being ignored in the 2014 NFL Draft.  Just saying…

I am not ready just yet to get caught up in the euphoria that has afflicted some commentators declaring that last night’s victory announces the arrival of a new dynasty in the NFL.  I prefer to wait at least another 3 or 4 years before I get into “dynasty proclamations” but I will admit that some demographic data points to possible long-term success for the Chiefs:

• WR Mecole Hardman is 21 years old
• QB Patrick Mahomes is 24 years old
• WR Tyreek Hill is 25 years old
• WR Sammy Watkins is 26 years old
• RB Damien Williams is 27 years old
• TE Travis Kelce is – antiquated by these standards – 30 years old.

I know.  Those are just the skill players on the offensive side of the ball and football is a team game that requires balance.  Nonetheless, that is a pretty good offensive base to start with; the Chiefs are not likely to be losing many 10-3 football games any time soon.

I watched the game in Philadelphia with a group of friends who always convene for this event.  There was an interesting split in thinking there.  One school was rooting for Andy Reid to win his first Super Bowl because of his ties to the Philadelphia Eagles in times past.  The other point of view was to root for any team playing the Chiefs because those folks did not want Andy Reid ever to win a Super Bowl because he did not do so in his time with the Eagles.  I mentioned last Friday that many thought that Reid needed a Super Bowl win to “qualify” for the Pro Football Hall of Fame; I did not share that view, but that narrative was out there.

Now that he has the Super Bowl win, here are the stats to tell you why he should be in the Hall of Fame as a coach:

• Currently, there are 18 coaches in the Hall of Fame; 2 more will be inducted in August bringing the total to 20.
• Andy Reid has 207 regular season wins as a head coach in his career and 222 wins in all counting the playoffs.  He has more wins than 15 of the 20 coaches who will be in the Hall of Fame as next season kicks off.
• Andy Reid’s winning percentage is .618.  That win percentage is higher than 8 of the current and imminent Hall of Fame inductees.  Four of the coaches with a lower winning percentage in the Hall of Fame include Bill Walsh, Tom Landry, Hank Stram and Chuck Noll; I doubt anyone would object to the inclusion of any of those 4 men.
• And now, Andy Reid has his “Super Bowl credential” …

It was sometime during the early part of the 4^th quarter where we were going through another series of Super Bowl ads that I said the commercials this year were really lame.  To demonstrate my point, I said that the two political ads – bought by the Trump campaign and by Michael Bloomberg – were among the best ones I had seen to that point.  Ten years ago, Super Bowl ads were creative and entertaining.  Yesterday they were abstruse bordering on unfathomable.  If this is the harbinger of a trend related to advertisements on sporting events for 2020, I shall not lack for material when it comes time for my annual “Bad Ads” rant in late December.

One ad featured Bill Murray and a groundhog recalling that movie from about 25 years ago.  I have long thought it would be great if the producers of that movie announced that they were making Groundhog Day 2”; and then when it was time for the premiere, they just re-released the original Groundhog Day film from the past.  Sounds like a hoot to me…

Finally, Brad Dickson had an interesting observation in a Tweet once yesterday’s game was over:

“Now comes the hard part – carrying Andy Reid off the field.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I should have Frank Sinatra crooning in the background this morning:

“And the days dwindle down, to a precious few…”

Today is the Final Football Friday; it began in August; it went on hiatus for a couple of weeks; and today it goes into hibernation until next August.  Two weeks ago, the picks in the Six-Pack were El Perfecto.  Those picks went 4-0-0 bringing the season totals to:

• Overall:  49-32-4
• College:  20-9-1
• NFL:  29-23-3

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Last week, LSU named Bo Pelini as their defensive coordinator.  Pelini is known for his “rough edges” – in terms of intensity and in terms of language – from his days as the head coach at Nebraska.  Pelini arrived at Nebraska in 2008 replacing Bill Callahan who had the temerity to post 2 losing seasons in 4 years in Lincoln.  From 2008 until he was fired in late 2014, here is a rough overview of Pelini’s teams:

• Cumulative record:  66-27-0
• Bowl game appearances in all 7 seasons – – including the one where he was fired
• Ranked in the Top 25 in 4 of the 7 seasons.

Husker Nation was not satisfied with that; after all, Pelini’s teams lost 4 or 5 times a year and that was unacceptable.  So how have things gone in Cornhusker Land since they rid themselves of “Boorish Bo” Pelini:

• Cumulative record:  28-34-0
• Bowl game appearances in 2 of the 5 seasons
• No Top 25 rankings at all.

Things will not be calm and serene on the LSU sidelines next season.  Nonetheless, LSU has acquired a competent football coach.  He may not be the kind of person who behaves in a way that you think is a role model for children – – but he can coach football.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Each year – as a silent protest to the needless “dark weekend” between the Championship Games and the Super Bowl – I do not mention the Super Bowl game in any of the rants for those two weeks.  Now that we are within 60 hours of kickoff time, I’ll pay attention to the game that should have been played last Sunday.

If you recall, the NFL season began on a Thursday night in early September; the Packers and the Bears got things started with a game that ended 10-3.  It was an interesting game because it was the first one of the season and because it was close all the way to the end, but it lacked any sort of “adrenaline factor”.  If a Super Bowl game were to end up 10-3 such that every possession during the game had the potential to change the lead or double the lead, it would be exciting.  Also exciting would be a 48-45 game where the teams moved up and down the field like a basketball game.  Personally, I am hoping things skew toward the 48-45 scenario on Sunday.

I want to take a moment to consider the two teams that lost two weeks ago thereby missing this week’s game.

• The Green Bay Packers have two areas in need of improvement.  The offense needs an upgrade at WR; it appears as if Davante Adams is the only one on the roster who can get open quickly.  Do not look at the stats from the Packers/Niners game and be deceived by the Packers’ passing yards; most of those yards came as a desperate attempt to play catch up.  In the first half, the Packers’ pass offense produced a net of only 65 yards.
• The Packers’ first half offense was miserable all around – – not just in the passing game.  Here are how the Packers’ first half possessions turned out: punt, punt, punt, turnover, turnover, punt.  Just to be clear, that stinks.
• The Packers also need to shore up their run defense.  The Niners had even fewer passing yards in the first half than did the Packers (only 48 yards) but the difference was that Raheem Mostert had been running the ball down the Packers’ throats for half the game.  In the first half he had 160 yards rushing and scored 3 TDs.
• The Tennessee Titans may have major roster moves foisted upon them due to salary cap constraints.  Derrick Henry will be a free agent and he is going to cost a lot more than he cost last year.  Henry is an important part of the way the Titans play offense, but RB is a position that comes with uncertainty.  Two years ago, the Rams spent big for Todd Gurley and now have an expensive RB with “knee issues”; last year, the Jets opened the wallet and signed LeVeon Bell and got decent – but hardly season-changing – production from him.
• Also, the Titans have two QBs on expiring contracts.  Ryan Tannehill played his way into a payday last season; Marcus Mariota will not cost nearly as much but did not produce nearly as much either.  There are significant financial decisions that the Titans’ front office will need to make.
• The team’s most pressing need would seem to be speed in the secondary.  I know that the Chiefs offense is predicated on speed, but some of the open receivers two weeks ago were almost castaways out there…

Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times had this observation about the Titans’ loss to the Chiefs two weeks ago:

“The most-relieved coach to lose a playoff game in NFL history?

“That would be Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel, after 6-month-old video resurfaced of him vowing to cut off his own manhood if the Titans won Super Bowl LIV.”

One of the most trite and meaningless phrases used regarding football teams is tossed about whenever a new coach takes over.  He is there to “change the culture” – as if this is a microbiology lab where they need the little beasties to grow more quickly.  In most cases, it doesn’t mean a damned thing and produces even less in terms of results.  However, the Niners may just be the exception that proves the rule.

Things got very “testy” in SF at the end of the Jim Harbaugh regime.  Coach Harbaugh and GM, Trent Baalke probably could not have agreed that the sun came up in the east on any given morning; the owner, Jed York, dithered and let that simmering pot boil over and then chose to side with Baalke in the dispute.  Harbaugh was ushered out of town and the organization went through a futile search for a replacement coach.

Coming up dry, the team hired Jim Tomsula who was on the staff already and who – despite being a decent position coach – was totally unprepared to be a head coach.  He lasted one year on the job and went 5-11.  [Remember, this team was only two seasons removed from one that had been to 3 consecutive Conference Championship Games and a Super Bowl game.]  Even the discombobulated front office of the time recognized that a coaching change was needed, and they started a search again.  By this time, the organization had not descended to the same level of dismissal as the Cleveland Browns but lots of folks looked askance at all the intrigue and all the drama that permeated the team.  That next coaching search landed Chip Kelly who was fresh off being fired by the Eagles.  That was an even worse time for the Niners; Kelly’s team went 2-14 and Kelly was out of a job after one year.

Then came the “culture change” – but it really didn’t come about with a new coach or a new GM.  The “culture change” came from Jed York who is the exec that owns/runs the team.  York made a decision to hire the tandem of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to rebuild the franchise and then Jed York took an important step:

• He stepped away and let the two guys he hired to run the team run the team.

That may not sound like a decision that arose from a Nobel-Laureate thought process, but it is a decision that some less-than-fully-functional teams seem incapable of making.  Might this be a lighthouse in the fog recognized by the likes of:

• Jimmy Haslam in Cleveland
• Woody Johnson in NY
• Danny Boy Snyder in Washington [Kyle Shanahan was on the Skins’ staff don’t you know…]
• Dean Spanos in LA?

Somehow, I doubt that is going to happen…

But that decision by Jed York produced a Super Bowl team with a 2019 record of 13-3 that had only won 10 games in the previous 2 seasons combined.  Moreover, the Niners had the second worst record in the league just last year yielding the second pick in the Draft only 9 months ago.  Things changed in SF – – but the change started at the top and not with the new coach.

Speaking of Niners’ coach Kyle Shanahan, he is making his Super Bowl debut this weekend and he will be half of the first father-and-son tandem to be the coach of a Super Bowl team.  His father, Mike Shanahan was the Broncos’ coach in the mid-90s when the Broncos won back-to-back Lombardi Trophies.  [Interestingly, Mike Shanahan has a third Super Bowl Ring because he was the offensive coordinator for the Niners when they won the Super Bowl in 1994.  The ‘90s were good times for Mike Shanahan…]

Andy Reid has been to the Super Bowl once before as coach of the Eagles.  His team lost to the Patriots in that game and lots of people think that Reid needs a win here to assure his inclusion in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  I happen to disagree; I think Andy Reid should be in the Hall of Fame even if he loses this weekend and decides to retire and never coaches another game.  But that’s just me…  Reid has the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1970 when the Chiefs beat the Vikings just before the merger of the NFL and the AFL.  To put that in some sort of historical perspective, the last time the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl, Apollo 11 had landed on the moon only six-months before…

Brad Dickson – formerly with the Omaha World-Herald – had this observation regarding the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl this year:

“I just hope now Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t get cocky and expect to make it to the Super Bowl every 50 years.”

[Aside: Another fun fact here is that 50 years ago, Jack Buck did the TV play-by-play for the Super Bowl game; this year, his son, Joe Buck, will be doing the play-by-play for the game on FOX.]

As is too often the case, the main focus for much of the hoo-hah leading up to the game has been on the two quarterbacks – as if they will ever be on the field at the same time playing against one another.  There are plenty of similarities:

• They are both young; Garoppolo is the “old guy” at age 28.
• They are both playing in their first Super Bowl.
• They are both good on the microphone as well as on the field.

Moreover, they have another similarity that was pointed out to me by Bob Molinaro with this entry in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“In passing: For what it’s worth, neither Patrick Mahomes nor [Jimmy] Garoppolo were even four-star recruits out of high school. Mahomes was a three, Garoppolo a two.”

So much for high-school rating systems…

 

The Game: 

 

SF vs. KC – 1.5 (54.5):  The spread opened as a “pick ‘em game” but moved to this level very quickly and then stabilized here.  The Total Line opened at 51 points, jumped to 54 points rather quickly and then has risen another half-point in the last two weeks.  I think there are four key questions that will decide this game:

1. Can the Niners 4-man pass rush get to Patrick Mahomes?  As Steve Young has pointed out several times in the past two weeks, the Niners ability to get pass pressure with only 4 pass rushers is a critical ingredient in their pass defense that drops 7 people into coverage.  That factor is even more important here because Mahomes can run and the Niners may need to “spend a defender” to spy on Mahomes in some situations.
2. Can the Chiefs recover against the Niners defense from an early deficit?  In both playoff games this year, the Chiefs have fallen behind early and then came roaring back.  The rally against the Texans was surprising only by its magnitude; the Titans’ defense is better than the Texans’ defense, but it was still exploitable by the Chiefs with their speed.  The Niners’ defense is better than either of the Chiefs’ prior opponents.
3. Can the Niners’ defense deal with the overwhelming team speed of the Chiefs?  To some measure, the answer here is closely related to Question #1 above.  If Mahomes has time and the chiefs’ WRs have time to motor downfield, the Niners’ excellent defense may be in a significant bind.  However, do not dismiss the speed factor of the Chiefs in their running game and in their return game; they have some flyers there too.
4. Can the Chiefs’ defense force the Niners out of their run-first offense?  If they cannot, I think the Chiefs will lose the game.  They need not shut down the Niners’ run game to something absurd like “less than 50 yards for the game”, but they cannot allow the Niners to drive the field and consume 8 or 9 minutes per drive unless the Chiefs are perfect on offense all game long.

I am not going to go through the umpteen prop bets that are available out there to look for ones to put in this week’s Six-Pack.  In fact, there will be only two selections there – coming soon.  However, if you are a trend bettor, there are two props out there that might entice you:

• Will there be a score in the final 3:30 of the game?  Yes = minus-190.  No = +160.  There has been a score in the final three-and-a-half minutes of the last 5 Super Bowl games.  In blowout games you might see nothing happening at the end as both teams just play out the string.  If you see this game as a tight one, there could be plenty of incentive for both teams to score late in the game.
• Will there be a 2-point conversion attempt?  Yes = +140 No = minus-130.  Believe it or not, there have been 2-point conversion attempts in 8 of the last 10 Super Bowl games.  I was surprised to run across that stat…

I’ll put the Niners plus the points in the final Six-Pack of the season and I’ll put the game to go OVER 54.5 points in the Six-Pack as well.

I think the game is a toss-up; the teams are evenly matched and by taking the Niners with a point-and-a-half I get the protection against them losing by a single point.  I think the Niners will score on the Chiefs defense and that the Chiefs will make a bunch of big plays to keep up.  That will send the total score OVER 54.5 points.  [Aside:  I do not expect this game to be the highest scoring Super Bowl ever; that honor belongs to the 1994 game between the Niners and Chargers where the Niners won 49-26.  That was the game where Mike Shanahan was the Niners’ offensive coordinator, by the way…]

For those who are interested in trends:

• The Chiefs are 7-0-1 in their last 8 games against the spread.
• The Niners are 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against the spread.

Good luck drawing a conclusion there…

Finally, Football Friday will go into hibernation as of today only to re-emerge next August. However, let me close with an observation based on a hiring decision made by an NFL team this week:

• The Cincinnati Bengals announced the hiring of Dan Pitcher as their QB coach.  Now, if only they can find someone named Sam Catcher to serve as their wide receivers’ coach…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Houston Astros want to put the sign-stealing scandal behind them – as impossible a task as that will be.  They took a positive step earlier this week by hiring Dusty Baker to be their manager in 2020.  I have always thought that Baker was a good but overrated manager; however, I never thought that he was underhanded in any way – as I do about some other highly successful managers.  But that is a rant for another day…

Baker is baseball to his core.  He played the game for 19 years at the major league level appearing in over 2000 games; he managed 4 different teams for a total of 22 years being involved in more than 3500 games.  His most severe critics point to his less-than-enthusiastic embrace for sabermetrics ignoring his winning record as a manager.

The only way for the Astros to escape completely from the memory of the sign-stealing nonsense is for the “Men in Black” to show up with their “memory erasers” and work their magic.  Dusty Baker can’t do that – – but I cannot imagine that he will embarrass the franchise during his time in the dugout.

Next up are the Red Sox…  What might the Commish do there?  Who will manage the Red Sox in 2020 with or without any “findings” by the Commish?  Pitchers and catchers report in a couple of weeks; presumably we will at least know who the manager for 2020 might be very soon…

In another part of Houston, the Texans made a front office alteration this week.  Bill O’Brien had been the head coach and part of a multi-headed monster that acted as the team’s GM for the last season.  This week, the Texans decided that a hydra-like GM was not to their liking and they named O’Brien as the GM in addition to continuing as the head coach.  This has been done before in the NFL and it has been done successfully; however, I cannot recall a coach acquiring that sort of power with a franchise without either owning the team or having plenty of success on his résumé prior to accreting that power.  It will be interesting to see how it works for the Texans.

Other than the PR drumbeat for the Super Bowl game this weekend, the dominant storyline of the NFL has to be the impending free agency of Tom Brady.  The prevailing narrative is to compare Brady’s situation to that of either Joe Montana or Peyton Manning in the late stages of their careers.  [Yes, some have pointed to Namath and Unitas too, but more focus has been on the more recent situations.]  I think there are too many dissimilarities in the Manning and Montana cases to be very instructive here:

• Joe Montana was traded to the Chiefs who signed him to a $10M deal that was lucrative for its time.  He was not a free agent; he did not get to try to optimize his playing situation.
• Peyton Manning was released by the Colts and the Colts had drafted Andrew Luck to be their franchise QB.  Manning did not have the ability – luxury? – of negotiating with his old team for a job there; Manning had to go and find himself a comfortable playing situation – – or he could retire.

Neither of these is the “Brady situation”.  Here is what is certain about the “Brady Free Agency”:

• Unless he signs an extension with the Pats, Tom Brady will be a free agent in early March 2020 – about 5 weeks from now.
• Between now and then, every time there is a need to fill space in a newspaper, magazine, online entity or on sports radio, someone can do a piece on what Tom Brady ought to do or has done or is rumored to be about to do with regard to the next stage of his career.  For the next 5 weeks, Tom Brady is a wildcard for filling space and time in the sports section.

The intense focus on the “Brady Free Agency” seems to have let a few other player conundrums go by the wayside.  Four players come to my mind who may be turned out onto the free agent marketplace and who should generate interest around the league on a speculative basis.  In alphabetical order:

1. LeVeon Bell:  There were more than a few reports last season indicating that Jets’ coach, Adam Gase, was not pleased to find Bell on the roster at his salary level when Gase arrived.  For whatever reason(s), Bell had the worst year of his career last season by any statistical measure.  If the Jets are serious that they are going to roll with Adam Gase for the near future – meaning more than just for 2020 – I would not be surprised to see Bell playing elsewhere in 2020.
2. Trey Burton:  Yes, he was injured last season only appearing in 8 games.  Yes, when he was on the field, he was on the receiving end of throws from a QB that was having significant difficulties last season.  Nonetheless, he has not been the dynamic tight end that the Bears thought they were getting when they signed him in 2018.  Burton is only 28 years old; if the reports of the Bears’ disenchantment with him are correct, he should be a free agent of interest…
3. Joe Flacco:  It would seem that the Broncos have moved on from Joe Flacco as their starting QB and I believe his cap number for 2020 will be around $23M.  That is a lot of cap room to devote to a backup QB so I think Joe Flacco will be wearing a different uniform in 2020.  He is 35 years old and perhaps the balance of his career will be as a veteran mentor for a young QB.  Plenty of NFL teams seem to be headed down the path of “young stud QB” …
4. Cam Newton:  Injuries have eroded some of his running effectiveness and whatever shoulder problem(s) he had certainly hurt his already spotty performances as a pinpoint passer.  There is a new regime in Carolina from the owner on down and a 31-year old Cam Newton may be swept out by the changes.  The big question here is his physical health.

Finally, having just mentioned a player who is recovering from injuries, here is a comment from Scott Ostler in the SF Chronicle about an injury suffered by Warriors’ center, Kevon Looney:

“Does anyone know what it means that Kevon Looney has a ‘neuropathic condition’?  Sounds ominous.  Can’t they dumb it down for us, like, ‘nerve thingie'”?

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………