Adam Silver and others in NBA management have been musing about the idea of an “in-season tournament” for several years now. The idea is taken from European soccer where such things happen annually and there is significant interest in both the regular soccer season and in the tournament(s). For example, the FA Cup tournament in England is a huge success.
Until now, there was a sticking point. The existing CBA did not allow the Commish to pronounce the existence of such a tournament, but that CBA expired on 30 June 2023 and the new CBA allows for this in-season tournament. Before I get to what I know about the specifics here, let me take a moment to tell you why I believe Adam Silver & Co. are so anxious to make this happen.
Numbers don’t lie; notwithstanding the common narrative that the NBA is exploding in popularity, the TV audiences for NBA games have been shrinking significantly. Consider these data:
- In 1998 (25 years ago) the NBA Finals matched the Bulls and the Jazz. The average TV audience for that 6-game series was just over 29 million viewers.
- In 1998, the sixth-and-final game of that series – – won by the Bulls with Michael Jordan – – drew a TV audience of more than 35 million viewers.
- In the 2023 NBA finals just concluded between the Heat and the Nuggets the average TV audience for the 5 games was less than 12 million viewers.
I am not cherry-picking data. The NBA’s TV audiences have been in decline for a while, and I will not even try to point to the numbers from the COVID-affected seasons of 2020 and 2021. From 2015 through 2017, the NBA Finals had average TV audiences between 20 and 21 million viewers. The trend is down, and the trend is persistent. In fact, let me give you two more data points that I would not have predicted. Remember, the average TV audience for the Nuggets/Heat series just concluded was 11.7 million viewers.
- For the Final Game of this year’s March Madness, the audience was 14.4 million viewers. UConn/San Diego St. outdrew the NBA Finals by more than 20%.
- For the Final Game of this year’s Women’s College Basketball Tournament, the audience was 9.9 million viewers. The NBA Finals outdrew the Women’s collegiate final game by less than 2 million viewers or only 15%.
Moreover, the NBA’s current media rights deals are about to come up for renegotiation in two years. Adam Silver needs something to happen to make TV audience numbers look more promising than beating out a women’s college game by less than 15%. He thinks the in-season tournament will spark enough interest; I doubt it, but I am willing to review the numbers when they come in.
There will be an in-season tournament during this regular season. All the specifics have not yet been announced but here is what I know so far:
- The results of tournament games in the Group Stage will count as part of the teams’ regular season record. That is not the case with the English FA Cup for example; the NBA’s tournament will simply label some regular season games as “dual-interest games” because they count in two different sets of “standings”.
- All 30 NBA teams will participate in a “Group Stage” much the way many soccer tournaments are structured. There will be six Groups; it is not clear to me if there will be Conference crossovers in the selected groups; that that a “TBD” for the moment.
- Also unclear at the moment is a statement on how the teams will be assigned to various groups. The statement from the league I read said it would be done “by a random draw based on a team’s winning percentage last season.” Maybe I am just dense, but that is not crystal clear to me.
- Each team will play 4 games in the Group Stage within its group. The team in each group with the best record in Group play will advance to the “Knockout Round” – – again much the way soccer tournaments proceed.
- There will also be two “wild card teams” added to the Knockout Round to create a bracket of 8 teams. The Knockout Round will be single elimination and we know that the Final Four of this tournament will be played in Las Vegas this year.
Somehow, and in some way, this in-season tournament is somehow going to spike the size of the TV audience for the NBA Finals next June. Hey, it could happen – – just as it could happen that next year’s Kentucky Derby winner will be a latter-day Mr. Ed and give his own interviews after the race.
Finally, let me close today with some observations by Adam Silver’s predecessor as NBA Commissioner – – David Stern:
“Everyone knows that if you can keep on making money, everyone’s happy.”
And …
“I actually don’t hope for a legacy. I think it impedes your ability to make the hard decisions if you sit around saying, ‘How will this affect my legacy?’”
And …
“My own basketball background was ripping up my ACL in a lawyer’s league.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………