A Different “Hot Seat” List

A common feature on sports pages and sports Internet sites are lists of “Coaches on a Hot Seat”.  I take part in that sort of soothsaying in my preseason football rants at the college and NFL levels.  In addition to providing a way to “fill space”/”produce content”, preparing such lists makes one check records and stats and do some analytical thinking about the sport.

Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers changed QBs at halftime.  Mitchell Trubisky had been named the Steelers’ starting QB at the end of training camp but three-and-a-half games later he was on the bench checking out the plays on his own personal Microsoft tablet.  And that got me to thinking about “Quarterbacks on a Hot Seat” because I do not think that Trubisky was in a unique position in the whole of the NFL.  So, let me present here my thinking about quarterbacks in the NFL who are on varying degrees of “Hot Seats” as we enter the second quarter of the 2022 NFL regular season.

First there are the QBs on a Blazing Hot Seat:

• Jacoby Brisset (Browns):  He is simply a placeholder as the starting QB for the Browns until Deshaun  Watson is back from his suspension and is deemed to be “in football shape” and ready to play.  About 50 nanoseconds after those three conditions obtain, Jacoby Brisset is out of a job.
• Baker Mayfield (Panthers):  After the Panthers were unsuccessful in trading for Deshaun Watson, they acquired Mayfield as an “upgrade” from Sam Darnold.  I have been a Darnold fan since his sophomore year at USC – – but even I have to admit that he has been a flop with the Jets and a flop with the Panthers.  But in four games this year, it is not clear too me that Baker Mayfield is much – if any – of a big step up from Sam Darnold.  There is nothing “on the bench” that poses a significant threat to Mayfield’s job right now, but the coach there is on a hot seat himself and may choose to change QBs just as a way to provide some cooling moments to his tortured derriere.
• Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers):  He has already been pulled for half a game and his 2022 stats are mediocre at best.  In 3.5 games, his completion percentage is below 60%; he has thrown 2 TDs and 2 INTs; his average yards per pass attempt is 5.6.  It is Trubisky’s 6^th season in the NFL and time is running out for teams to consider him a “late bloomer” who deserves patience and grooming to be a team’s answer at the QB position.

Let me add a category here of QBs where “Other Factors” cool their seat a bit.  In this category, there are circumstances that make the player a bit more secure in their position than might be the case absent those circumstances.

• Marcus Mariota (Falcons):  This is his eighth year in the NFL, and he has never quite lived up to being the second overall pick in 2015.  At first, there were “durability issues”; but in reality, his issues are performance based.  Viewed dispassionately, Marcus Mariota is a solid back-up QB and not a franchise QB.  His seat is cooled a bit by the fact that the guy behind him on the depth chart – – Desmond Ridder – – is a rookie from Cincy who may some day be ready for NFL action, but that time is not in October 2022 unless he is thrown into action out of necessity.  If the Falcons are not in the playoff hunt late in 2022 – – as is most likely – – there should be a severe temptation for Coach Smith to find out how well Ridder has assimilated whatever they have given him in practice time.  But until then…
• Kenny Pickett (Steelers):  He is the guy who replaced Mitchell Trubisky last week and he was a first-round pick for the Steelers this year setting the bar for expectations high.  In his first 30 minutes of play, Pickett ran for 2 TDs (Yay!) and he also threw 3 INTs (WTF?);  but he is the “new kid on the block” and gets some deference for that plus the Steelers’ fans and brass both know that the alternative is Trubisky – – and how would that work out?  My guess is that Pickett gets most if not all of 2022 and much of 2023 with the NFL version of a “Hall Pass” to show what he’s got.
• Geno Smith (Seahawks):  Simply stated, the alternative to Smith on the bench is Drew Lock.  Choosing between Smith and Lock is like trying to figure out the difference between oatmeal and porridge.
• Carson Wentz (Commanders):  He needs to play well – – significantly better than he has shown so far this year – – if he is going to be a starting QB next year anywhere in the league.  He is safe for now in Washington because the team used his backup, Taylor Heinicke, as the starting QB last year and they know how that story ends.
• Zach Wilson (Jets):  As a high draft pick last year, much is expected of Wilson in NYC which means his seat will never be truly “cold” until he leads the Jets on a deep playoff run – and that is not happening this season.  Moreover, he has suffered injuries both last year and this year that have limited his availability on Sundays.  The Jets’ fans – – and the Jets’ organization too – – are not known for “patience” and/or “playing the long game”.  However, Wilson’s seat is still only marginally warm here because the backup on the roster is Joe Flacco and the fans know – as do the folks in the Jets’ hierarchy – that the 2022 version of Joe Flacco is as a short-term backup and nothing else.  Wilson is the guy for the “Green people” in NYC for the rest of 2022.

For the sake of symmetry, there are QBs where “Other Factors” add to the heat on the seat:

• Derek Carr (Raiders):  He is on my list completely due to “Other Factors”; simply stated, Raiders’ fans are terribly myopic when it comes to the team’s QB.  Far too many Raiders’ fans think anyone who dons a silver and black jersey and lines up under center must be a Super Bowl winner or he is a guy to be run out of town on a rail.  This is Carr’s  9^th year as the Raiders’ QB and – you will not be surprised to read here – the Raiders have not won a Super Bowl in that time span.  Most Raiders’ fans might not want to hear that Carr is the best starting QB for the franchise since Jim Plunkett in the early 1980s – – but there is a case to be made for that assertion.
• Daniel Jones (Giants):  This is Jones’ 4^th year in the NFL; he has a new coach who is supposedly a “QB Development Guru” which sounds like a good thing – – except – – Jones’ back-up, Tyrod Taylor, played for the “QB Guru” at Buffalo and is well known to the “Guru”.  The Giants are 3-1 this morning with Jones as the starter; that kind of performance will keep him solidly in the starting position.  But what happens if the Giants lose 3 or 4 in a row …?
• Matt Ryan (Colts):  He also does not belong on a list like this – – but here he is.  This is Ryan’s 14^th year in the NFL; he has been to the Super Bowl; he has been to the Pro Bowl 3 times and was an All-Pro once.  At age 37, he is not likely to raise his game much beyond where it is now.  And that makes him subject to seat warmth in Indy because that franchise has been franticly casting about looking for its “franchise QB” ever since Andrew Luck abruptly retired in 2018.  Since then, the Colts have traded for and used for one year, Jacoby Brisset, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and now Matt Ryan.  If history is any indicator, the Colts will seriously consider Joe Flabeetz for the job either this year or next.
• Ryan Tannehill (Titans):  Like Marcus Mariota above, Tannehill has a high draft pick from this year’s Draft sitting on the bench behind him.  The difference here is that Malik Willis was a standout in the exhibition season and already saw some action in a blowout loss to the Bills earlier this season.  The Titans lead the AFC South today; so long as that is the case – or if they are only a game behind the division leader – Tannehill is the starting QB.  But if not, there could be a drumbeat that starts to “see what the kid’s got” …

I have twelve QBs on my list here; that is more than one-third of the starters in the NFL.  I think it was Jerry Glanville who said that NFL stood for “Not For Long” and many of these QBs could be subject to that descriptor in the next year or so.

Finally, here is an observation by Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times about another NFL QB – – one whose seat is comfy cozy:

“The Bengals’ Joe Burrow, sidelined at training camp after an appendectomy, was seen accompanying his teammates doing 40-yard windsprints — on a golf cart.

“It gives a whole new meaning to ‘rollout quarterback.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………