The Sports Curmudgeon

The NFL is about to begin negotiations with TV networks regarding new TV contracts; obviously, the NFL expects to increase revenue from those sources, and they have a powerful argument on their side of the bargaining table.  I read somewhere that for the calendar year 2020, 37 of the biggest TV audiences for televised events were NFL games.  To me, that is a sufficiently powerful argument but wait, there’s more…  Three of those “biggest TV audiences” were political debates; since there will be no more political debates on TV for the next 4 years, the projected score would be 37 of the largest 47 telecasts (79%) were NFL games.

That just sets the stage.  Reports say more specifically that ESPN – – via its parent Disney Corp – – is interested in making a run at Sunday Night Football.  At the moment, SNF is a huge bargain; it consistently gets sky-high ratings, and it costs far less than the other TV network deals.  ESPN currently has the Monday Night Football deal; rather than focusing on getting some other part of the NFL TV package, I think that ESPN needs first to get a new bargaining team on their side.  I will not pretend to know all of the provisions of the various NFL TV contracts in place now, but there are some glaring items there which tell me that ESPN did a bad job getting the MNF package last time around.  Consider:

1. Super Bowl telecasts:  ESPN gets none as part of the MNF package; NBC is “in the rotation” to telecast Super Bowl games along with FOX and CBS.  Clearly this is an advantage for NBC.
2. Playoff telecasts:  ESPN gets to show one playoff game; NBC gets to show two playoff games thanks to the new expanded playoff structure this year.  Obviously, NBC has the advantage here.
3. Scheduling:  ESPN has a fixed slate of games set in stone when the NFL schedule is released sometime in the Spring; NBC enjoys flex-scheduling for some games meaning they can swap-out a “Dog-Breath Game” for a more interesting game as the season unfolds.  For the networks, better games lead to better ratings lead to higher charges to advertisers for time slots during the telecast.

I hope it would not take me long to convince you that NBC has the advantage in all three areas noted above.  Now consider the critical element of the SNF and the MNF deals that leads me to conclude that ESPN needs better folks negotiating for them this time around:

• Cost:  NBC pays the NFL $950M a year for Sunday Night Football with those 3 items noted above.  ESPN pays the NFL $2B a year for Monday Night Football with those 3 items noted above.

It seems to me that SNF will always enjoy the advantage of flex-scheduling over MNF.  In addition to the logistical burden placed on two visiting teams to adjust travel and accommodation plans from Sunday to Monday or vice-versa, changing the date of two games will impose problems for fans with tickets to the games.  Changing a game from Sunday afternoon to Sunday night can be a problem for some fans; there is no question about that; changing the date of two games from Sunday to Monday or Monday to Sunday is going to impose a larger burden on a larger number of fans.  TV is the big moneymaker, but the NFL does not want to serially piss off the fans who show up at the game venues; owners really do like the revenue that game attendance provides.  I could be wrong, but I do not expect the next MNF deal to include flex-scheduling.

However, if SNF continues to hold onto the other advantages it now enjoys with regard to playoff and Super Bowl telecasts, I would expect the cost of SNF to go through the roof and the cost of MNF to increase only slightly from its present level.

It is important to note that Disney Corp also owns ABC.  So, it is possible that ABC could enter the bidding for one or both of the Sunday afternoon packages now held by CBS and FOX.  There are lots of moving parts here and formal negotiations have not yet begun, but this is a subject that should be interesting to watch.

While on the topic of ESPN, the radio arm of ESPN did a major shake-up of its programming about 3 months ago.  Two of the programs in the mid-day/early afternoon time slots are now manned by “known quantities” in Mike Greenberg and Max Kellerman.  Frankly, I like both programs for different reasons.  Mike Greenberg’s program is a leisurely paced program where interviews with guests are actual discussions on a sports topic.  Too many sports radio interviews are transparently a situation where the host lobs softball questions at a guest who has pre-formed answers for the questions.  That is not the case with Greenberg and his guests; those interviews are interesting.

Max Kellerman may be the most under-appreciated person at ESPN.  He is smart; he is opinionated without being obnoxious; he is analytical and rational.  Even when you disagree with one of his positions, you think about what he has said because you recognize that it is not just some “hot-take” that he concocted to try to attract interest to his program.

The new program on ESPN Radio that I still have not decided that I like or dislike is the morning-drivetime program featuring Keyshawn Johnson, Jay Williams and Zubin Mehenti.  Sometimes these guys are entertaining; sometimes these guys are almost cringeworthy.

• Keyshawn Johnson:  Wherever she may be in the cosmos, my 12^th grade English teacher who graduated from Mount Holyoke must get an electric shock traversing her nervous system at least 5 times an hour when Keyshawn mangles English grammar and syntax.  I mentioned above that Max Kellerman rarely resorts to “hot-takes”; Keyshawn seems to love to wade into that pool of thinking.
• Jay Williams:  His wheelhouse – obviously – is college basketball and to a lesser extent the NBA.  When the subject is football or baseball, I sometimes wonder if Williams took off his headset, left the set and got himself a smoothie.  He had some interesting things to say about the NBA playoffs but on other topics he is almost a “no-show”.
• Zubin Mehenti:  If you could build a rocket ship that ran on enthusiasm and you put Zubin Mehenti on that ship, you would have the makings of an interstellar transportation vehicle.  Here is the issue; some mornings when I get up and decide to turn on the radio, I am not ready for high energy radio that borders on cheerleading.  Other mornings, that sort of assault on my senses is refreshing.

Here is what I think is the essential difference between the “morning guys” and the “early afternoon guys” on ESPN Radio:

• Keyshawn, Jay and Zubin are often entertaining.  When they are annoying, I just turn off the radio
• Mike Greenberg and Max Kellerman are usually entertaining AND they are informative at the same time.  That is the standard the “morning guys” need to achieve much more regularly.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation in the Seattle Times regarding the analytics-driven removal of Blake Snell from Game 6 of the World Series that sparked yesterday’s rant:

“Look at the bright side of Blake Snell’s premature exit from Game 6, Rays fans:

“When he pitches the 2021 season opener next April 1, he’ll be working on 156 days’ rest — not to mention 2 or 3 bonus innings of nonwear and tear.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I want to ask your indulgence this morning.  I would like you to listen to a commentary by Bob Costas on a recent episode of The Rich Eisen Show.  Please follow this link; click on the picture in the Tweet and listen to Costas’ comments.  It takes about 7 minutes; it is worth your time; I will wait here for you to come back.

That commentary would have been excellent if it had been written out beforehand and “read into the record”.  Rather obviously, that was not the case; that was an extemporaneous analysis and opinion piece.  And … there is so much truth in there.  Those two “standing ovations” from the producers and staff of The Rich Eisen Show were perfectly appropriate.

Even though many folks had said previously what Costas said in his comments, his eloquence adds weight to the arguments.

• Being a slave to analytics is not good strategy or tactics in baseball.
• Fans do not really care about newfangled stats such as launch angle and exit velocity and spin rate.  They cannot see any of them on TV or at the ballpark.
• Pace of play is working against MLB as an entertainment product.

The Rays got to the World Series by adhering – – for the most part – – to a tactical situation where their starting pitcher did not go through the opposing lineup more than twice.  Obviously, that had worked for them because they were in the World Series and 28 other teams were not.  In Game 6 of the World Series every “analytics acolyte” would choose to pull Blake Snell because “the numbers” show that doing so is a path to success.  The problem is that “the numbers” they rely on allow them to ignore some other numbers:

• Snell had thrown only 73 pitches.  I understand that starting pitchers in 2020 are far more fragile than pitchers in the past – – but if 73 pitches becomes a “burdensome load”, there is almost no reason to differentiate between starting pitchers and relief pitchers.
• Snell had struck out 9 batters in 5 innings – – and had struck out the guys who were due to come up to face him in the 6^th inning.
• Those numbers are not statistical trends; those numbers represent what was happening on the field in that game on that night.  They were ignored so that the same guys who brought you “stadium-adjusted OPS+” would be happy.
• That analytical decision backfired spectacularly.  No one will ever know if Blake Snell would have crashed and burned in an even more spectacular fashion had he been left in the game until it appeared that the Dodgers had figured out how to get some hits off him.

Bob Costas makes a great point in that rant when he referred to the old Strat-O-Matic baseball game.  Every player has a card that represents his statistics for a season or a career.  The “Ted Williams Card” had far more chances to get a hit or draw a walk than did “The Sparky Anderson Card”.  The “Sandy Koufax Card” produced more strikeouts than did “The Humberto Robinson Card”.  Every player in Strat-O-Matic brought the same “effort” and “energy” to the table in every game.  And that is simply not the case in real life.  Every great player has an off-day; every mediocre hitter has an at-bat that produces a grand slam (e.g. Bill Mazeroski).  Analytical stats come from the past and the game on the field is happening in the present.  That is why a slavish addiction to analytics has not worked in baseball even though it has been around a LONG time.

Take a moment and recall Billy Beane and “Moneyball”.  It was all the rage about 25 years ago; Michael Lewis wrote a book about it and they made a movie based on the book.  It was a totally different way to evaluate players as an executive went though the process of building a roster.  And it worked – – to a degree.  The “Moneyball” teams in Oakland never got past the Division Series in the AL let alone get to or win a World Series.  The teams were very “cost effective” in terms of wins per dollar spent on player salaries – – but that is not how baseball seasons are decided.

To my mind, the problem is not “analytics” per se; the problem is using them to the exclusion of what is happening in front of one’s nose.  Another aspect of analytics that is troubling is that it is spreading into the world of football.  Players and teams now get a DVOA rating; DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.  When you tune into a college game this Saturday or possibly to an NFL game on Sunday, send me a note telling me where you observed someone’s DVOA on the field.  I often miss it…

One more thing here…  Another problem with the “analytics acolytes” is that they cannot ever admit they were wrong.  A part of the reason for that is the infallibility of the calculations of past performances that led to the critical judgment of what needed to be done.  If you do not believe in that infallibility, then you are only partially committed to analytics and/or a reactionary.

Analytics has a seat at the table in terms of evaluating players and game situations.  Unfortunately for the “analytics acolytes”, human behavior and performance cannot yet be completely modeled by mathematics.

Costas’ other major point was that pace of play was hurting baseball as an entertainment product.  Given the revenue streams for MLB, television is the critical element of the game as we know it today.  Too few people seem to recognize the criticality of television to MLB – – and to the NFL and the NBA and other sports as well.  The owners, the players, the umpires, the announcers and everyone else involved with bringing the game to the public has to understand that they are all in a partnership to produce a TV series that attracts viewers.  If MLB ceases to do that, it will be relegated to a sporting status alongside things like horseracing and boxing and tennis.  All those sports can be enjoyed on TV – – sporadically, but not as a steady diet.

Would that Bob Costas – or someone who thinks as he does – had been named Commissioner of Baseball somewhere along the path of the last 30 years or so.  We can never know how the game would be different – and presumably better – had that happened because one can never describe fully events derived from a contrafactual statement.  Too bad…

Finally, a former colleague – and an avid Denver Broncos’ fan – sent me an email back in the middle of the summer as we were all going through the potential for restarting sports and dealing with COVID-19 and witnessing the ramping up for our Presidential election.  He was bemoaning the chaos of 2020 and wondering how and why we got to where we were.  The way that Game 6 of the World Series played out leading to the Bob Costas commentary here would seem to add another layer to his outcry:

“Remember, everything was under control until the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I must begin today with a correction from yesterday.  An email from a reader pointed out to me that I was incorrect in saying that Willie Wood was the cornerback opposite Herb Adderley on the great Packers’ teams of the 1960s.  In fact, the reader is correct to note that Wood was one of the safeties in that defensive backfield.  Both men are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and both men died in 2020.

May they both rest in peace…

Late last week, the Chicago White Sox lured Tony LaRussa out of retirement to manage the team.  LaRussa is 76 years old and one of the questions raised by several commentators had to do with his ability to “relate to today’s young players”.  The line of thought in many of those pieces is that LaRussa is very old-school and a true believer in the “unwritten rules of baseball” which govern conduct during games.  [Aside:  Someone once told me that baseball’s unwritten rules were not worth the paper they were printed on.  Whatever…]  I prefer not to plunge headfirst into that argument because it does not take long in one’s analysis there to require mind-reading skills that I do not have.

Tony LaRussa is in the Baseball Hall of Fame – – and I am on record that I do not believe that he deserves to be there.  My objection has nothing to do with his records or his stature as “old-school” or anything else of that ilk.  My position is that his managerial record – 2728 wins, 2365 losses and 4 ties – is improperly inflated.

• Almost 700 of those wins came during the 1990s with the Oakland A’s where a significant portion of the roster was using illegal steroids.  LaRussa was the manager there for 10 years; and for me to believe that he never had an inkling of what was going on around him, I would have to cast him in the role of Sergeant Schultz.
• After leaving the A’s, he took over the Cardinals managerial job.  LaRussa was in charge in 1998 when a reporter noticed the bottle of androstenedione in Mark McGwire’s locker and wrote about it.  That kicked the snowball off the cliff for MLB’s Steroid Scandal.  LaRussa remained in charge of the Cardinals until the US Congress shamed MLB and the MLBPA into banning steroids and testing for them.  The Cardinals won another 500 games under LaRussa in the time it took for the Steroid Era to be subject to testing.

I doubt seriously that Tony LaRussa encouraged any player to use steroids; I doubt equally seriously that he was totally clueless about the use of steroids by members of his teams for a period of about 12-15 years.  If I had a vote – – which I do not, never did and never will – – I would not vote for Tony LaRussa to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Speaking of baseball – obliquely – free agency began on Sunday.  As usual, there are dozens of players available who can fit nicely into a team structure and add value there; but there are less than a dozen players who look to be “major acquisitions” or “instant change agents” for the teams that sign them.  Looking over some lists of available free agents, here are five position players that I believe are in the category of “major acquisitions”:

1. Jackie Bradley, Jr. – Red Sox
2. Marcel Ozuna – Braves
3. JT Realmuto – Phillies
4. George Springer – Astros
5. Justin Turner – Dodgers

Spending big bucks to acquire a free agent pitcher seems to be more of a gamble than signing on an expensive position player.  I do not see any pitchers on this year’s free agency lists for whom I would “back up a Brinks’ truck full of cash” to sign.  Here are the four pitchers that I think are the best available:

1. Trevor Bauer – Reds
2. Mark Melancon – Braves
3. Marcus Stroman – Mets
4. Masahiro Tanaka – Yankees

Let the bidding begin…

After the LA Clippers crashed out of the NBA Playoffs, ownership decided to shake things up.  Doc Rivers was fired as the coach – – and got a new job with the Sixers in less than a week.  Tyron Lue was hired to replace Rivers and one of the recurring things I read about the reason for his selection for the job is that he demonstrated an ability to “bring a team together” during his days with the Cavaliers.  Since I had never heard anything that would have led me to believe that Doc Rivers was a divisive force on a team, I wondered why that was an important résumé entry.

Over the last couple of weeks, reports have come out of LA that several members of the Clippers were “disgruntled” about the “special treatment” given to Kawhi Leonard.  Supposedly, Leonard was late for team flights and could “dictate” when he would be removed from games and was allowed to set his own schedule for “load management”.  I do not know if any of that is true but let me say this as clearly as I can:

• Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the Clippers’ roster.  Any other player on the roster who does not recognize that fact is living in a delusion.
• It is not news that star players get preferential treatment – – simply because they are star players.  They get preferential treatment from coaches, from officials and from the media.  Some star players turn into divas; others do not.
• Kawhi Leonard – along with Paul George to play Robin to Leonard’s Batman – gives the Clippers a chance to reach the NBA Finals or even to win a championship.  The presence or absence of any of the nominally disgruntled players has no effect on the Clippers’ chances to be serious contenders for the NBA Finals or championship.

I will go out on a limb here and guess that if Kawhi Leonard is “late for the team flight” on the first Clippers’ road trip in 2021, Tyron Lue will not order the plane to take off and leave Leonard behind.

Finally, here is an entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Genghis Khan:  Thirteenth-century leader of the Mongol Horde.  Or, as the position is known today: mall security.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Herb Adderley died last Friday at the age of 81.  Adderley and Willie Wood were the cornerbacks on the great Packers’ teams in the 1960s; they had not yet invented the term, “shut-down corner”, but that is what Herb Adderley was.  Adderley won 5 championships with the Packers and another one with the Cowboys during his Hall of Fame career.

Rest in peace, Herb Adderley…

Yesterday, Tua Tagovailoa made his debut as the QB of the Miami Dolphins.  The Dolphins won the game notwithstanding a lackluster performance by Tua – I will have more to say about that later this week on Football Friday – but there was something else interesting about his play yesterday.  Tua Tagovailoa is left-handed and it has been a while since there has been a left-handed starting QB in the NFL.

Statistically, about 10 percent of the population is left-handed.  The NFL has 32 teams and each team has 3 QBs somewhere in their organization; round that up a bit and at any given time, there ought to be 10 QBs who are left-handed; three of them ought to be starters.  That simply is not the case and I am not sure why that is the case.

Over the history of the NFL, there have been some excellent left-handed QBs.  Steve Young is of course the first one that leaps to mind but with about 5 minutes of thinking, I came up with this list:

1. Mark Brunell
2. Bobby Douglass
3. Boomer Esiaison
4. Matt Leinart
5. Ken Stabler
6. Tim Tebow
7. Michael Vick
8. Steve Young
9. Jim Zorn

Bobby Douglass and Ken Stabler were playing about 50 years ago and in the intervening time, that list of 9 left-handed QBs is all that I can drag from my memory.  That list of nine is smaller than the number you would expect to be on NFL rosters this morning just by random chance.  A discrepancy that large should have an explanation – – but I am not sure I can provide it.

My first guess would be that the pool of young athletic left-handed boys is tilted in favor of baseball where certainly more than 10% of MLB pitching staffs are comprised of left-handers.  The problem with that “hypothesis” is that I do not think that many kids sufficiently analytical at a young age to make the determination that “playing baseball” might be more career-friendly twenty years in the future than “playing football”.  I guess that some parents might make that sort of “calculation” and steer their sons toward baseball, but I do not find that whole line of thinking satisfactory.

Also in baseball, there are a few positions where left-handedness(with regard to throwing not batting)  is a disadvantage.  A left-handed second baseman would have difficulty turning double plays; left handers at shortstop or third base would have awkward throwing positions on many plays at first base.  In the history of baseball, there have only been 5 players to have caught more than 100 games.  Therefore, left-handed kids who show a proclivity for baseball would not be equally distributed among the positions on a team so more of them might gravitate toward pitching.

There are probably a few PhD dissertations in anthropology and/or psychology contained in the reasons why so few left-handers become NFL QBs and I will not pretend to be able to evaluate them once they have been published.  Rather, I will offer a simplistic hypothesis here because it is the best I can come up with.

• In youth sports, there are camps and coaches that focus on teaching specific skills to elite young players – – the ones who are identified at an early age as “special players”.
• Many of the “pitching coaches” or “pitching gurus” for youngsters were pitchers themselves and there are plenty of left-handed pitchers out there to teach a left-handed kid how to pitch.
• Many of the “QB coaches” or “QB whisperers” for youngsters were QBs themselves and there just are not as many of them walking the streets to be available to teach a left-handed kid how to play QB.

Sticking with football, there is a minor benefit that derives from the ongoing pandemic.  There are 5 of the meaningless college football bowl games that will not be played this year.  They are:

1. Bahamas Bowl – normally played before Christmas.  The game matches teams from the MAC and the Sun Belt Conference.
2. Hawaii Bowl – normally played on Christmas Eve.  Not too surprisingly, Hawaii has been one of the teams in this bowl game 9 different times.
3. Holiday Bowl – normally played between Christmas and New Year’s Day.  This year’s game would have matched a PAC-12 team with an ACC team.
4. Quick Lane Bowl – normally played on December 26^th.  Teams involved here appear to be randomly chosen from the Big-10, the ACC and the MAC.
5. Redbox Bowl – normally played between Christmas and New Year’s Day.  The game matches also-rans from the Big-10 and the PAC-12 – sort of a poor relative of the Rose Bowl.

Finally, here is an observation by Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times about futbol – – not football:

“Phil Foden and Mason Greenwood were dropped by England’s national soccer team for breaching quarantine rules by bringing women to the team hotel in Iceland.

“That’s what you call playing the wrong kind of friendly.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In Germanic lore, Friday is named for the goddess, Frigga, who was Odin’s wife.  The Romans referred to the sixth day of their week as “dies Veneris” – or the Day of Venus the goddess of love.  In 2020 and in the bowels of Curmudgeon Central, we just call it Football Friday.

As usual, I shall begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack – which is significantly better this week as compared to the “Shutout Six-Pack” from two weeks ago:

• College:  1-0-0
• NFL:  3-1-1
• Combined:  4-1-1

Here are the updated season totals:

• College:  6-11-1
• NFL:  13-10-1
• Combined:  19-21-2

 

College Football Commentary:

 

A couple of years ago, there was a week when both Ole Miss and Mississippi State were ranked in the Top 5 teams in the country; lots of folks believed that this signaled a shift in the geography of SEC football prowess; it most certainly did not.  Fast forward to today and one might over-react to three stories this week and conclude that football is dying a slow death in Mississippi.  That too would be wrong, but maybe you could be convinced to believe that someone has put a hex on football in Mississippi?

Let me start with the football situation at Southern Mississippi.  Back in September after losing its first game of the season by two scores to South  Alabama, then-coach Jay Hopson immediately resigned and was replaced by Scotty Walden as the interim coach for the balance of the 2020 season.  Walden had to miss last week’s game – – a loss to Liberty by 21 points – – because he tested positive for the coronavirus.  On Tuesday of this week, Walden announced that he is leaving Southern Mississippi to take the head coaching job at Austin Peay, and he is leaving immediately.

Walden will be replaced by Tim Billings who has been the defensive coordinator and tight ends coach and who led the team on the sidelines last week in that loss to Liberty.  As is the norm, Coach Walden declared that he is ecstatic to go to such a great place as Austin Peay and the Athletic Director there says that they are thrilled to have such a good person as their new head coach.  Meanwhile, in Hattiesburg, the folks at Southern Mississippi will have a third head coach on the sidelines since the season began on September 3^rd and the Director of Athletics at So. Miss said that his goal is to “have a full-time head coach in place by the end of November.”

Unless Tim Billings moves up from “interim coach” to head coach, that does not leave a lot of wiggle room for the Director of Athletics.  November has 30 days; So. Miss will play its final game on 27 November.  Or … maybe the plan is to hire the next head coach and have him take over before this season is done.  That would make 4 different head coaches for the team in a single season.  I am not going to spend the time and effort to check it out, but I have to think that has not happened in major college football before.

Meanwhile, over in Starkville, MS, there appears to be turmoil in the Mississippi State program.  CBSSports.com reported yesterday that Coach Mike Leach confirmed that 3 more players will be leaving the team and he has suggested that the team may need a “purge” of “malcontents”.  In the last two weeks, a total of 7 players have left the team – – and if there is a “purge” coming, that number might increase dramatically.

Mike Leach is no stranger to controversy; he sets a high standard when it comes to being unorthodox as a college football coach.  Nonetheless, it is beyond unorthodox for a college coach to refer openly to purging malcontents from his roster.  Mississippi State opened the 2020 season with a bang beating LSU 44-34 and racking up 600 yards passing in that game.  Since then, the Bulldogs’ fortunes have soured; they have lost their last 3 games scoring a total of 30 points in those three losses.  And this week, they get to mosey on over to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama – – and they will arrive as a 30-point underdog.

And at Ole Miss, coach Lane Kiffin was fined $25,000 for openly and pointedly criticizing the officials and the officiating in last week’s loss to Auburn.  His criticism seems justified to me, but coaches just cannot unload on the way he did.  Kiffin has said he will pay the fine in pennies.  Let’s do some math…

• A US penny (since 1982) weighs 2.5 grams; there are 453.6 grams per pound.
• $25,000 equals 2,500,000 pennies.
• (2.5  X  2,500,000) / 453.6 = 13,779 pounds.
• Memo to Coach Kiffin:  Be sure to rent a big enough truck.  And take a couple of your lineman along to help you unload the cargo at the delivery point.

Perhaps one or more of the football gods is really ticked off at the State of Mississippi for some reason…

Rutgers beat Michigan St.38-27.  That is not a typo; that is merely a gigantic surprise.  Michigan St. won the stat battle gaining 379 yards on offense to 276 for Rutgers.  You do not have to go exploring on the stat sheet to see how the game turned in favor of Rutgers; Michigan St. turned the ball over 7 times – 2 INTs and 5 lost fumbles.  Here are the results of the Spartans’ possessions for the day:

• 1^st Quarter:  Fumble, Fumble, Turnover on downs, TD
• 2^nd Quarter:  INT, Fumble, Field goal, Halftime
• 3^rd Quarter:  Fumble, Fumble, TD, Turnover on downs
• 4^th quarter:  Punt, TD, Interception.

Three of Rutgers’ TD drives in the game were 26 yards or shorter including one “drive” that traversed 1-yard and took 5 plays to accomplish.

Rutgers broke a 21-game conference game losing streak last week.  We will see in coming weeks if Rutgers has taken a giant step forward in its football program – – or if Michigan State is in the throes of a total rebuilding of its team.  Or perhaps … both?

Northwestern beat Maryland 43-3.  The other doormat of the Big 10 – aka Maryland – –  did not fare nearly as well last week.  The Terps opened the scoring in the game with their field goal at 9:15 of the first quarter.  After that, nada.  Maryland QB, Taulia Tagovailoa had a less-than-impressive start to his career at Maryland going 14 for 25 for 94 yards and 3 INTs.

Ohio St. beat Nebraska 52-17.  As I said last week, this game shaped up to be a modern version of the 1050s TV show, You Asked For It.  Buckeyes’ QB, Justin Fields was surgical in the passing game posting this stat line:

• 20 of 21 for 279 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs

Wisconsin beat Illinois 45-7.  Lest you think Justin Fields had the best stat line of the week, Badgers’ QB Graham Mertz (Is Ricky Ricardo his godfather?)  had an even better day posting this stat line:

• 20 of 21 for 248 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs

After the game, it was reported that Martz tested positive for COVID-19.  Please do not let the Internet start the “rumor” that the coronavirus is a performance enhancer for athletes…

Michigan beat Minnesota 49-24.  The Wolverines showed a balanced attack running for 256 yards and throwing for another 225 yards.  Joe Milton has taken over the starting QB role in Michigan with the departure of Shea Patterson and all he did in his debut was go 15 for 22 for 225  yards and 1 TD through the air plus carrying the ball 8 times for 52 yards and another TD.  Add in two turnovers by Minnesota and you have the result cited above.

Indiana beat Penn St. 36-35 in OT.  Penn State dominated the stat sheet gaining 488 yards to only 211 by Indiana.  Ten penalties on the Nittany Lions for 100 yards certainly did not help the Penn State cause here.

UNC beat NC State 48-21.  The Tar Heels rebounded from their upset loss to Florida State last week in a big way; they outgained the Wolfpack by almost 200 yards on the day.  The biggest difference was in the running game where UNC had 326 yards and NC State had 34.

Louisville beat Florida State 48-16.  The Seminoles led 7-0 with 12;40 on the clock in the first quarter and then surrendered 28 consecutive points in the next 15 minutes.  It was never really a contest.  Florida St. went for it 5 times on fourth down; they only succeeded once.

Clemson beat Syracuse 47-21.  Clemson is now 6-0; They have been penciled in for the CFP since the season began.  Week by week, that prognostication looks better and better.

Notre Dame beat Pitt 45-3.  Pitt’s offense was held to a total of 164 yards for the game.  It was never a contest…  Notre Dame is undefeated at 5-0 for the season.

K-State beat Kansas 55-14.  K-State is 4-1 for the season and is undefeated in its four Big 12 games.  K-State returned 2 punts for TDs in this game and also had a Pick-Six.  Kansas is a miserable football team.

Oklahoma State beat Iowa State 24-21.  Oklahoma State is also undefeated in Big 12 games.  Normally one thinks of Oklahoma St. as an offensive team that wins by outscoring opponents; this year’s squad also had a stingy defense; they could well be part of the Big 12 Championship Game.

LSU beat South Carolina 52-24.  LSU is a most unreliable team this year; and last week, the “Good-LSU” took the field in Baton Rouge.

Alabama beat Tennessee 48-17.  Alabama is a very reliable football team this year.  Alabama is 5-0 and should be penciled in for the CFP along with Clemson.  The Crimson Tide dominated the game gaining 587 yards to 302 yards for the Vols.  Alabama scored 6 TDs in the game; one came on a “scoop-and-score”; the other 5 were rushing TDs.  Alabama WR, Jaylen Waddle was lost for the season with a “lower leg injury” incurred on the opening kickoff.  The injury was subsequently diagnosed as a broken ankle.

Cincy beat SMU 42-13.  The Bearcats look to be the class of the AAC after this result.  Ahead on their schedule are games against Memphis, Houston and UCF; if they run that table, they should be the Group of 5 team playing on New Year’s Day.

 

College Games of Interest:

 

Michigan St. at Michigan – 24 (52.5):  Is Michigan as good as it looked last week against Minnesota?  Is Michigan State as bad as they looked in losing to Rutgers?  We may get some indications here…

UNC – 7 at UVa (61.5):  That spread is suspiciously low given the way UNC destroyed NC State last week.

K-State at West Virginia – 3.5 (45.5):  The Total Line opened the week at 50 points and has dropped significantly.  Perhaps the line here anticipates a soggy field from the remnants of Hurricane Zeta?  K-State arrives in Morgantown undefeated in Big-12 competition and they are getting points; I’ll take the Wildcats plus those points; put it in the Six-Pack.

BC at Clemson – 23.5 (56):  Clemson has won 27 consecutive games against ACC opponents.  The all-time ACC record for consecutive wins stands at 29 in a row and is held by Florida State from 1992-1995.  I doubt that BC will derail Clemson’s run of conference victories this week notwithstanding the news that broke last night that Trevor Lawrence tested positive for coronavirus and will not play.  That news moved the line here a lot; yesterday, the spread was 31.5 points, and the Total Line was 61 points.  Bettors who took the points with BC earlier in the week, now have a real chance at a middle.  [Aside:  I assume anyone reading about games, spreads and totals knows  what a middle is.  If not, leave a comment and I’ll try to explain it.]

Va Tech – 3.5 at Louisville (68):  Tech looked awful losing to Wake Forest last week.  Louisville dominated Florida State last week.  Nonetheless…  Louisville gives up a lot of rushing yards (187.3 yards per game on the ground) and Va Tech runs the ball well.  I like the Hokies to win and cover – even on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Notre Dame – 20 at Georgia Tech (57):  This could well be a trap game for Notre Dame because next week they will host Clemson in South Bend.  The Irish are clearly the better team but …

Indiana – 10 at Rutgers (53.5):  Both teams surprised in their wins last week.

Ohio State – 11 at Penn State (63):  This is probably the Game of the Week.  Penn State gained almost 500 yards last week on the Indiana defense; I do not see that happening this week.  Penn State is down to its #3 running back due to injury to one and to opting out for the other backs previously ahead on the depth chart.

Memphis at Cincy – 6.5 (55.5):  This is a test for Cincy as they seek to hold onto the reins in the AAC and stay on track to play in a New Year’s Day bowl game.

Boise St. – 14 at Air Force (49):  What is interesting here is that the spread opened the week at 8.5 points and the Total Line opened the week at 52 points.  That is an awful lot of line adjustment…

Rice at So. Mississippi – 2 (58):  Can the new interim head coach for the Golden Eagles get his first win?  (See above)

Texas at Oklahoma St. – 3.5 (58):  The Cowboys are in good shape in the Big-12 race now and need a win here to stay that way.

LSU – 3 at Auburn (65):  Both teams come to the game with 2 losses on their record.  Two losses are probably too many to be a factor in the SEC Championship Game – – but three losses are the kiss of death.  Both teams won last week.  Neither team is consistent.

Mississippi St. at Alabama – 31 (63):  If there are Bulldog players who are “malcontented” now, I do not know what adjective one might use to describe their feelings after this ass-kicking happens.

Arkansas at Texas A&M – 12.5 (54.5):  Arkansas has been a positive surprise so far this year; Texas A&M is pretty much what the Aggies are every year.  They win more than they lose, and they get stomped by the likes of Alabama.   I think the line is fat; I’ll take the Razorbacks plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Missouri at Florida – 12 (62):  Florida and Georgia lead the SEC East with one loss each and will face each another next week.  Is this a “look-ahead game” for the Gators?

Georgia – 17 at Kentucky (42.5):  Is this a look-ahead game for the Dawgs?  For a game that appears to be a low-scoring affair, that is an awfully large spread…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Bucs signing of Antonio Brown is understandable from the vantage point of physical talent on the field on Sundays.  No one doubts that Brown is a top-shelf WR.  However, earlier this year when Brown was looking around for places to land once his suspension was served, Bucs’ coach Bruce Arians said that he did not think Antonio brown would “fit into the locker room” that he was trying to construct with the team.

It is not as if the Bucs are in desperate straits now; so, is it fair to ask coach Arians:

• What changed?

Benjamin Disraeli – the 19^th Century Prime Minister of the UK – famously said there are three kinds of lies:

“Lies, damned lies and statistics.”

There is an NFL stat this year that is certainly misleading if not an outright lie about the value provided by achieving that statistic.  I refer to “Total Yards Passing”.  Here are the top 3 NFL QBs as of this morning using that stat as your yardstick:

• Matt Ryan – – 2181 yards (does not count yardage in last night’s game versus the Panthers)
• Deshaun Watson – – 2095 yards
• Joe Burrow – – 2023 yards.

Before you gaze too fondly at those impressive numbers, take a moment to check the NFL standings and note that the Falcons, Texans and Bengals have a combined record of 3-17-1.  I think the reason all those passing yards do not add up to success in the standings is based in the reason that there are so many passing yards in the first place:

• The Falcons never have a lead that is “safe” because the Falcons’ defense is more than “suspect” giving up 29.7 points per game.  Matt Ryan is throwing the ball all the time because the team needs to amass every point they can possibly squeeze out of a 60-minute game.
• The Texans also have a “suspect” defense which allows 31 points per game.  Deshaun Watson needs to score a lot to keep the game in doubt and he has often had to do it from behind since the Texans have fallen behind rather regularly in 2020
• The Bengals defense is the best of these three yielding “only” 27.4 points per game.  However, teams have loaded up against the Bengals’ run game meaning that Joe Burrow has thrown an average of 41.9 passes per game.

The NFC East is clearly the weakest division in the NFL this year;  the Eagles lead this sorry lot by a half-game today with a record of 2-4-1.  The combined record for the 4 teams is an embarrassing 7-20-1; as a whole, the 4 teams have been outscored by 184 points – and that takes into account that there have been 5 division games already where the combined point differential has to come out to be zero.

Having said that, I think the AFC East is not looking all that formidable at the moment.

1. The Bills lead the division with a 5-2 record.  However, the Bills have not looked good the last two weeks and – – even with that 5-2 record – – the Bills’ point differential is minus-4 points.
2. The Dolphins are 3-3; they have played very well in their last two games but were less than awesome before that.
3. The Patriots look ordinary at best with a 2-4 record.  Cam Newton has not dazzled at QB and with Julian Edelman hobbled a bit, there are no pass-catchers on the roster who keep defensive coordinators up at night.
4. The Jets are – – well, they are the Jets.  ‘Nuff said…

The Steelers beat the Titans 27-24.  The Steelers were 13 for 18 on third down tries; Juju Smith-Shuster and Dionte Johnson each caught 9 passes in the game for a combined 165 yards and 2 TDs.  The Titans’ WR, A.J. Brown, caught six passes for 153 yards and a TD.  The  Steelers are 6-0 and they are the only undefeated team at this point of the season.  They have two games on tap with the Ravens – one this weekend and the second one on November 26^th.  Circle those dates on your television viewing calendars…

The Browns beat the Bengals 37-34.  The Browns needed a miracle finish – two picture-perfect throws from Baker Mayfield to WRs you never heard of – to win this game.  Odell Beckham Jr. suffered what was “feared to be” a significant knee injury.  Indeed, it was a torn ACL, and he is out for the rest of this season.  Joe Burrow threw for 406 yards and 3 TDS but the Bengals could only gain 81 yards on the ground for the game meaning they asked him to throw 47 times in the game.

The Bills beat the Jets 18-10.  The Bills’ offense sputtered every time it got to the Red Zone and they were forced to attempt 8 field goals in the game.  Kicker, Tyler Bass, made 6 of those tries from 29, 37, 40, 46, 48 and 53 yards (he missed on tries from 37 and 45 yards) and that was the totality of the Bills’ scoring for the day.  That futility came against a Jets’ defense that was on track to be historically awful so far this year.

The Jets’ offense showed signs of life in the first half taking a 10-0 lead with 7 minutes left in the first half.  Then it went back into suspended animation.  At one point in the first half, Sam Darnold had this worthy stat line:

• 10 for 11 for 107 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs

Here is Darnold’s final stat line for the game:

• 12 for 23 for 120 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Doing a bit more math here and subtracting the first stat line from the second, you will ss how Darnold and the Jets’ offense fared as the game went on:

• 2 for 12 for 13 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Yowza!

The Packers beat the Texans 35-20.  The Packers had this one on cruise control after leading 21-0 at the half.  The Texans scored a TD in the final two minutes of the game to make the score look halfway decent.  The biggest difference in the game was that the Packers scored 4 TDs on 4 trips to the Red Zone.

The Lions beat the Falcons 23-22.  The Falcons concocted yet one more way to lose a lead and a football game.  The Falcons drove 76 yards to score a TD and convert a 2-point try giving them a 22-16 lead with 1:04 seconds left in the game and with the Lions having no timeouts.  Matthew Stafford drove the Lions 75 yards in 64 seconds to get the game-winning touchdown. The Lions QB completed four passes on the drive with two going to T.J. Hockenson, including the game-winning TD with no time left. Even with that dramatic late-game action, you could argue that Lions’ kicker, Matt Prater was the game hero. Prater hit three long field goals (49, 50 and 51 yards), and he also converted the PAT with no time left on the clock that won the game.

The Bucs beat the Raiders 45-20.  Tom Brady was in a groove here; he completed 33 of 45 passes for 369 yards, threw for four touchdowns and ran for one. All in all, nine different Bucs caught a pass in the game and those 4 TD passes all went to different receivers.  The Raiders trailed 21-10 at halftime but rallied to close the gap to 24-20 with 12 minutes to play in the game.  Then the roof caved in; the Raiders lost the ball on an INT and then on downs and the Bucs turned those two opportunities into TDs to win going away.

The Saints beat the Panthers 27-24.  The Saints had neither Michael Thomas nor Emanuel Sanders available for action in this game; so, they turned to Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to carry the ball and carry the day.  Those two running backs averaged 5.5 yards per carry and a total of 130 yards in the game.  Kamara added to his run totals by catching 8 passes for 65 yards.

The Niners beat the Pats 33-6.  That was the first time this season that I have had the chance to watch a Pats’ game start to finish this year.  Cam Newton threw three interceptions before being benched for Jarrett Stidham in the second half. Newton was not the totality of the Pats’ offensive ineptitude; the offense managed to gain only 59 yards in the first half.  The Pats’ defense was also poor.  The Niners run game was dominant gaining 197 yards in the game.

I mentioned that Cam Newton was benched in the second half of the game; he deserved it; he did not play well at all.  Going 9 for 15 for 98 yards and 3 INTs is not exactly the résumé entry you might expect from a former MVP.   Newton looks to me like a shell of his former self; he was never a pin-point passer and he has not evolved that skill.  However, his shortcomings are magnified by the fact that the Pats do not have any WRs or TEs who are anything but ordinary.  Just as it was obvious two years ago that Cam Newton was playing hurt and at far less than maximum efficiency, it is equally clear to me that Julian Edelman is also playing significantly below his standard of performance.  And if N’Keal Harry is the Pats’ lead receiver, this could be a LONG season for the folks in Foxboro.

The Chargers beat the Jags 39-29.  Justin Herbert shone in this game; the Chargers amassed 484 yards on offense and Herbert was involved in 413 of those yards.  Here is what he accomplished for the game:

• Passing:  27 for 43 for 347 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs
• Rushing:  9 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD.

The Chargers defense was dominating too.  Here are the results of the Jags’ possessions for the day:

• First Quarter:  Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt
• Second Quarter:  TD, Turnover on downs, TD
• Third Quarter:  Turnover on downs, TD
• Fourth Quarter:  Turnover on downs
• Yes, the Jags only had the ball 3 times in the entire second half.

Meanwhile, the Jags’ defense surrendered 30 or more points for the sixth straight game. That ties an NFL record for the longest streak ever.  That should give the Jags’ coaching staff yet one more thing to work on during the team’s BYE Week this weekend.

The Chiefs beat the Broncos 43-16.  Looking at that score, you would assume that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ running backs must have had a dominating performance.  Not so…  The Chiefs scored 5 TDs but only three of them came from the offense. Another one came on a special teams play (a 102-yard kickoff return) and one more came via defensive play (a Pick-Six).  LeVeon Bell made his first appearance as a Chief here carrying the ball 6 times for 39 yards. The Broncos outgained the Chiefs 411 yards to 286 yards for the day.  However, the Broncos turned the ball over 4 times and lost the ball on downs 2 other times.

The Cards beat the Seahawks 37-34 in OT.  There were loads of offense in this game – – 1091 combined yards of offense to be specific.  One clear point came out of the game; the Seahawks just cannot put pressure on a QB; the DL is OK against the run, but it generates zero inside pass rush.  The team must have recognized that shortcoming too because they went out and traded for Carlos Dunlap to improve their play from the edge.  The turning point in the game came on an OT interception by Isaiah Simmons.  I touted him as the best defensive player in this year’s draft and I stand by that assessment.

Glancing at the game stats here, I noticed something that must be unusual.  If you look at the game stats for the two QBs you will see:

• Russell Wilson threw for 388 yards and 3 TDs and was the Seahawks’ leading rusher (84 yards).
• Kyler Murray threw for 360 yards and 3 TDs and was the Cards’ leading rusher (67 yards).
• You do not see that kind of offensive outburst from both teams’ QBs in a game very often – – particularly the part about each one leading his team in rushing.

I saved one game for last in terms of commentary.  The WTFs beat the Cowboys 25-3.  For the record, Dion DiMucci is not related to Ben DiNucci.  In case you do not know who either one is, DeNucci is the QB of the Cowboys as of this moment and DiMucci was the lead singer for Dion and the Belmonts.  The Belmonts sang “I  Wonder Why” in 1958.  Ben DiNucci wonders why he gets to be the one to try to survive behind the screen door that is the Cowboys’ OL in October 2020.

The Cowboys’ OL is decimated with injuries and the current starters are not up to snuff at the NFL level.  That does several intertwined things to the offense:

• It minimizes the threat of the running game; Ezekiel Elliott is much less effective when the OL does not open huge holes for him
• It minimizes the pass game because the QB does not have time to sit back and throw the ball to an open guy
• Without a serious passing threat, the defense can load up on the run game – – and without a serious run game, the defense can unload on the QB.

That is what happened last week; the Cowboys gave up 6 sacks and Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game on a blatant cheap shot by one of the WTFs’ linebackers.  [Aside:  The fact that there was no suspension for that cheap shot tells me that all the breast-beating about focusing on player safety by the NFL and the NFLPA is nothing but balderdash.]  And with that cheap shot hit on Dalton, enter Ben DiNucci – – stage right.

There are multiple reports that various Cowboys’ players are roasting their coaches saying they are incompetent, make no changes and do not know what they are doing.  OK, maybe that is true; I am not part of the team.  However, anonymous sources like this are becoming far too commonplace in reporting.  I really wish the reporter who “broke” this news would have done the work to confirm the story and get the sources on the record.  I can sit here and pretend to have “sources” and make up stuff, but I do not do that.

BTW, the Cowboys’ defense stunk out the joint too last week and for the balance of the 2020 season to date.  The Cowboys have now given up 20 points in the first half in six straight games this year.  As a result of those first half performances, the Cowboys have trailed by at least 14 points in those six straight games.  Last week, the Cowboys looked as if they would have preferred to be anywhere other than on a football field.

 

NFL Games:

 

Four teams are on their BYE Weeks:

1. The Cards are in good position; they are only a half game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West and the Cards have the best point differential in that division.
2. The Jags have lost 6 games in a row and have given up 30 points or more in those 6 losses; that must stop.
3. The Texans have only given up 3 fewer points for the season than the Jags; Romeo Crennel is a defensive guy; he needs to fix that – quickly.
4. The WTFs can bask in the glory of their win last week.

Indy – 2.5 at Detroit (50):  Take a deep breath here; the Lions come to this game on a 2-game winning streak.  Uncharacteristically, the Lions are winless at home so far this year (0-2) and they are 3-1 on the road.  The Colts had a BYE Week last week and they bring a stronger defense to this game than the Falcons brought last week.

Minnesota at Green Bay – 6 (51):  The Vikings are about to see their season flushed down the drain; a loss here would put them 5 full games behind the Packers in the NFC North with the Packers holding the tie-breaker due to a season sweep of the series.  Aaron Rodgers is conducting an offensive symphony in Green Bay; Kirk Cousins is leading a chorus of kazoos.  I think the Packers win big here; I’ll take them to win and over; put it in the Six-Pack.

New England at Buffalo – 4 (41):  I gave this game a moment’s thought as the Game of the Week because it is a division game and because the Patriots season might be hanging in the balance here.  But that was not nearly enough to keep the game on the list for more than a few seconds.  As noted above, the Bills have not played well the last couple of games; if the Pats can put some semblance of an offense together here, they might be able to win the game outright on the strength of their defense.  It will be interesting as a game to follow – – but it is not a Game of the Week candidate and certainly not one that is going to be part of the Six-Pack.  Here is a trend:

• Sean McDermott is 0-6 in games against Bill Belichick

Tennessee – 5.5 at Cincy (53):  The Titans lost a tough game to the Steelers last week and now have to go on the road to maintain their 1-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South.  The Steelers made life difficult for Derrick Henry last week but the Bengals’ defense – particularly the Bengals’ run defense – is not nearly as good as the Steelers’.  The Bengals rank 28^th in the NFL in run defense yielding an average of 133.7 yards per game.  I think Derrick Henry has a big day here to put the Titans back on track; I like the Titans to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Las Vegas at Cleveland – 2.5 (50.5):  Look, the Raiders are not going to win the AFC West this year barring something like the Chiefs’ plane crashing into the Rocky Mountains one of these weeks.  However, the Raiders are in the thick of a playoff race as one of the AFC’s three wild card teams this year.  This game could be an important tiebreaker with the Browns down the line; this game means something to both teams.  Both teams have a negative point differential for the season – – but those stats are not based on the same foundation:

• Browns are minus-21 points for the season with a 5-2 record.
• Raiders are minus-26 points for the season with a 3-3 record.

The Raiders would love to run the ball here; statistically, the Browns look as if they have a tough run defense allowing fewer than 90 yards per game.  However, part of the reason for that “strong showing” is that the Browns pass defense is miserable.  The Browns pass defense ranks 30^th in the NFL giving up 288.1 yards per game.

Jets at KC – 19.5 (49):  The spread here opened the week at 21.5 points and that must have drawn plenty of “Jets money” because it was down to 20 points in about 12 hours and has settled in at this level since Monday/Tuesday.  Maybe the Chiefs’ offense takes this game as a “scrimmage” and the Jets can slide in under the number; maybe the Chiefs’ offense is clicking and just destroys whatever the Jets’ defense thinks it might be able to do in the game.  The Chiefs have been on the road for the last two weeks and return to Arrowhead Stadium where they lost their only game of the season.  That is too big a spread to take seriously and there are too many mental factors to worry about here.  However, if you are a diehard Jets’ fan here are the data you need:

• The Jets are +1325 on the Money Line this morning
• The Jets were +3000 on the Money Line yesterday
• There must be “Jets Money” coming in on the Money Line now…

Rams – 3.5 at Miami (46):  Welcome to the NFL, Tua Tagovailoa; let me introduce you to Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.  I suspect that the Dolphins had this tactical move planned from the day everyone arrived in Training Camp; Tua was going to be the starter after the BYE Week come Hell or high water.  Yes, the Rams are on a short week having played last Monday night and yes, this will be a body clock game for the Rams after traveling from LA to Miami for the game.  That is all well and good; bonne chance, Tua Tagovailoa…

New Orleans – 4.5 at Chicago (43.5):  This will be a low scoring game because the Bears’ offense is anemic and because the Bears’ defense is very good.  Michael Thomas is slated to return for the Saints and that has to be a plus.

SF at Seattle – 3 (54):  This game had serious Game of the Week potential given its potential importance in the NFC West race – the toughest division in the NFL  A loss here for the Niners would put them down 3 in the loss column to the Seahawks and that would be a huge obstacle to have to overcome.  The Seahawks lead the division with a 5-1 record even though their defense is awful; they give up 479.2 yards per game which is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin.  [The next worst team defense belongs to the Jags at 424.7 yards per game.]  This is a must win for the Niners; this is an important game for the Seahawks who lost their first game of the year last week.  Here is a trend for you:

• The Seahawks have lost outright in their last 4 games against NFC West teams.

(Sun Nite) Dallas at Philly – 9 (43):  The spread here opened the week with the Eagles as 4-point favorites.  I assume it was the announcement that Andy Dalton could not play that sent the number soaring to this level; you can even find it as high as 10 points this morning.  Neither team here is nearly consistent enough to merit placement in the Six-Pack but this game does point to an interesting NFL marketing reality:

• Three of the NFC East teams will play this week.
• All three teams will play in prime time – – the Giants are on MNF.
• All three of those teams stink.
• Nonetheless, NFC East teams tend to draw big audiences and comfy ratings.
• So, the NFL has not bothered to “flex” the Eagles/Cowboys out of Sunday night.

[Aside: The WTFs are on a BYE Week; that is why they are not part of this discussion.]

Chargers – 3 at Denver (44.5):  I think the Broncos’ defense is good enough to make Justin Herbert struggle in this game.  I think the Chargers’ defense is good enough to make Drew Lock struggle in this game.  I am tempted to take the game to stay UNDER, but I shall resist that temptation.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – 4 (46):  This is the Game of the Week.  The teams bring a combined 11-1 record to the stadium.  The Ravens’ offense will have to deal with an excellent Steelers’ defense here and the Steelers’ offense will have to deal with an excellent Ravens’ defense here.  The Ravens enjoy a scheduling edge here; the Ravens had a BYE Week last week and this is a second consecutive road game for the Steelers.  This is a game to savor and having a wager on a game like this is not necessarily a way to enhance your viewing pleasure.  Just sit back, watch and enjoy – – if the game is available in your viewing area…

(Mon Nite) Tampa Bay – 11 at Giants (45):  There are three bad NFL teams on their BYE week this week and the Falcons played on Thursday night so finding a Dog-Breath Game of the Week was difficult.  My first inclination was the Eagles/Cowboys game because neither team is any good – – but that could have a major impact on a division championship race down the line.  So, I am going with this game as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  I do not think this game will be competitive; I think Tom Brady has begun to settle in with the Bucs.  And I do not see the Giants home field providing much of an advantage here; the Giants are only 1-2 at home and that win came over the less-than-fearsome WTFs.  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games, but I am making an exception here; I like the Bucs to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.  Here is a trend that makes me feel better about this selection:

• In the last 5 years, Tom Brady (with the Pats) covered 75% of the games where he and the Pats were double-digit favorites.
• In the last 5 years, Tom Brady (with the Pats) covered 77% of the games facing opponents with records below .500 at the time.

Let me review this week’s Six-Pack:

• K-State +3.5 against West Virginia
• Arkansas + 12.5 against Texas A&M
• Va Tech – 3.5 over Louisville
• Packers – 6 over Vikes
• Titans – 5.5 over Bengals
• Bucs – 11 over Giants

Finally, here is an NFL oddity noted by Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“As if Green Bay losing 38-10 to the Bucs last Sunday wasn’t bad enough, Jamaal Williams’ pants tore open during the game, exposing his right buttock.

“So how do they list him on the Packers’ roster now — running back or split end?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, I got a lengthy email from a reader who needed to vent.  Fortunately for me, I was not the focal point of his anger/frustration; he evidently has had it up to his earbrows with some of the announcers assigned to do college football games.  Here is the way he introduced his frustration:

“ … it seems to me that collegiate game TV [announcing] teams should do some elementary homework on the teams they are covering and the context of the game they are calling and to share it and enhance the particular significance variables that might be present in a particular game.”

That seems to be a fair – – and not an impossibly difficult – – standard by which announcers might be “graded”.  It might be a bit difficult if Powerhouse U is playing Cupcake College for the first time ever, but in normal circumstances …

The reader’s email points out the lack of context often displayed by announcers regarding the game on the field.  Is this an emerging rivalry game?  Is it a revenge game?  Is there “bad blood” – – or “good blood” – – between the coaches?  I find myself in no position to defend many of the announcing teams doing college football games; rarely, do they even seem to be interested in such “angles” to their games.  Many of the announcing teams, to be candid, are not very good.

Then the reader went on to mention a pet peeve of mine – one that I was never sure many other people shared.

“ … in the second half, Mr. Golic and his colleagues went on and on about the ‘damn’ Big Ten and their return to football…a topic that nauseates me (and I have an advanced degree from Iowa and was on the faculty at both Iowa and Indiana) and then went on a long commentary about equality etc. (don’t get me wrong, I support Black Lives Matter …) but all of this while the game was going on in front of them…”

Amen to this!  Announcers are on site to inform the listener/viewer what is happening at that site on that day.  If there is an event in the game or even in the stadium area that relates directly to issues in a larger context in the country, then the announcers can and should “put it on the table”.  However, they are there to present a football game; they are not there to deliver a sermon and they are not there to propagandize their personal social beliefs or those of the network that employs them.  Even if the game in front of them shows a scoreboard that reads 77-3 in the third quarter, sermonizing and traversing mental flights of fancy is inappropriate.  Sermonizing can happen on a personal podcast or in a column published somewhere or as a guest on a sports radio show somewhere.

The problem is that on a national TV broadcast, there are plenty of folks who tuned into THAT game because they wanted to see THAT game and to hear you give them insight and expertise relative to THAT game.  I cannot speak to every TV market in the US, but I do know that in Northern Virginia, I have the choice to tune in to see at least four or five games in any and all of the time slots on every Saturday.  If I tune in to see Whatsamatta U play Catatonic State, it is because I have a reason to want to see THAT game and not the others on my menu.  And I can say with certainty that I never pick my viewing choice based on the probability of social sermonizing by the announcing team.

The email closed with:

“Thanks for listening and wading through this bile, if you did….”

I did; it was not bile because I agree with much of what you said bothered you.  And that should put a small degree of fear in your mind because I am confident that no mental health professional ever told one of his clients to read my stuff and to start thinking as I do…

Moving on …  Olympic weightlifting may be in trouble as an approved sport.  You may wonder how that can be since the Olympic motto of “Faster, Higher, Stronger” would seem to embrace weightlifting to the Nth degree.  What could be the downfall of this sport?  Well, it is a sport regulated by national Committees/Federations and an International Federation while the Olympics are regulated by the IOC.  Given those facts, it should not be a total surprise that the problem here is:

• Corruption.

The International Weightlifting Federation (IWF) had an interim president, and that woman was just removed from office.  This happened at a virtual board meeting which did not include the president, and which was chaired by the vice-president who immediately assumed the duties of the president at the conclusion of the meeting.  The ousted president claimed that she was removed from office for trying to enact reforms related to “widespread doping and corruption” within the organization.

The IOC is righteously indignant about the allegations of doping and the use of PEDs in the sport of weightlifting notwithstanding its overt posture that it is on top of drug testing and has all the measures in place to regulate it for the Games.  [Aside:  If you believe that, you may not be the dumbest person on the planet, but you damned well better pray that he doesn’t die.]  In addition, there are allegations of “financial shenanigans” within the IWF.  It seems that an audit/investigation turned up an unaccounted for $10.4M and evidence that voters were bribed in various IWF “elections”.  Here is a link to more details on this story…

The IOC can refuse to recognize the IWF as a governing body thereby closing the Olympic  doors to any athletes that emerge from IWF sponsored competitions.  Might they do that?  The cynic in me wonders if that decision depends on finding that missing $10.4M and how it might find its way surreptitiously to the personal accounts of key IOC officials…

Finally, here is another Olympics-related event from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“The Japan Swimming Federation has stripped Daiya Seto, the reigning world champion in two individual-medley events, of his team captaincy for the Tokyo Olympics after he was caught cheating on his wife.

“In other words, he got DQ’d for not staying in his own lane.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

 

Congratulations to the LA Dodgers; they are the World Series Champions in 2020.  While I would have preferred to have a Game 7 to watch this evening, I am happy to have seen a close and well-played game last night.  There was an inordinate number of strikeouts, however.

• Blake Snell started for the Rays; he retired 16 batters; nine of those outs came via strikeouts.
• The Dodgers used 7 pitchers in the game; they retired 27 batters; sixteen of those outs came via strikeouts.
• For the game, there was a total of 27 strikeouts out of 51 outs.  53% of the outs in the game were strikeouts.

Mookie Betts was the offensive hero of the game for the Dodgers; he advanced a runner to third base with a double in the sixth inning and that runner scored on a wild pitch.  Then Betts scored the second Dodgers’ run on an infield ground ball.  Later, he gave the Dodgers an insurance run with a home run and the game went into the books as a 3-1 victory for the Dodgers.

One thing seems to be overblown about this World Series win by the Dodgers.  Too many people have said that this triumph creates a positive legacy for Clayton Kershaw.  Frankly, I think that is buncombe. [Hat Tip to H.L. Mencken for that word.]  Clayton Kershaw is a three-time Cy Young Award winner and has been in the All-Star Game 8 times in his 13-year career – – and by the way one of the years that he “missed out” was in 2020 because there was no All-Star Game.  Yes, his post-season statistics are not nearly as dominant as are his regular season stats.  Nevertheless, his “legacy” did not need any enhancement.  If he announces his retirement today, he should be a first ballot inductee in the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2025 – – and that should also have been the case if the Dodgers had lost this Series.

The Dodgers – and their fans to be sure – can enjoy themselves for the next 100 days or so until it is time for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training.  [Please note that the aspiration here in Curmudgeon Central is that 2021 will present a normal sporting calendar and that the pandemic will be on the retreat by then.]  MLB as an institution, however, cannot just sit back and bask in the glory of putting on a World Series after its COVID-truncated season in 2020; MLB has some work to do over the winter over and above the normal free agency period.

Baseball has tried to rev-up the pace of play for the last decade or so.  It has not worked; on average games take about as long to play now as they did over the past 5 years.  With the increased emphasis on home-run hitting, the numbers of strikeouts and walks have increased adding to the length of games and subtracting from the amount of time a ball is actually in play.  These are genuine issues for the folks nominally “in charge of the game”.  The problem, from my perspective, is that the guy in charge of the folks nominally in charge of the game – Rob Manfred – seems only to give a fig about economic issues related to baseball.

Given the significantly decreased revenue for every team in MLB this year, there will likely be a contentious free agency period; players and agents are not going to be happy; I think the OVER/UNDER until you hear someone hint at “collusion” is January 3^rd.  The players’ union cannot have forgotten that the 2020 season was cobbled together over their objections as to the number of games played and the pro-rated salaries that were paid out.  Economics and goodwill or the lack of goodwill will dominate baseball news.  That will push to the background some bad ideas that The Commish has spoken highly of:

• He said he likes the expanded playoff format and would not mind seeing it made permanent.  Such a bad idea…  There were two teams in the playoffs this year with records below .500 in the regular season.  Given the division alignment of MLB, there should be 4 teams from each league in the playoffs – the three division winners and ONE wild card team per league.  Period!
• He said he likes the “man-on-second” rule to start each half-inning of extra inning games.  This is the MLB version of soccer’s penalty kicks as the way to determine the winner in an overtime situation.  The game is played for nine innings over about 3 hours under one set of rules – – and then you change the rules to determine a winner.  In what universe does that make sense?  Why not fully commit to the soccer model and determine the winner via a Home Run Derby between three members of each team drawn at random by the  home plate umpire?
• He said that he thought the “seven-inning doubleheaders” used this year provided excitement for the game.  That point is not worth arguing over; I will concede it.  However, if The Commish is serious, he is going to face stiff opposition to the idea not from the players but from his employers – the owners.  If there are seven-inning doubleheaders next year, that will deprive owners of the ability to charge separate admission fees for the two games played day-and-night.

Baseball has work to do this off-season and it appears as if the guy in charge is looking in the wrong direction(s) on the major issues facing the game.  I know it was fashionable to beat up on Bud Selig during his couple of decades as Commissioner; frankly, I would be more optimistic about getting positive changes infused into MLB if he were still the guy in charge.

Finally, apropos of nothing, here is an interesting Tweet from humorist, Brad Dickson:

“If I had Pat Sajack’s job whenever a contestant says, ‘I’m the mother of two beautiful children,’ I’d go, ‘OK. How many altogether?’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

It does not matter if you are rooting for the Dodgers or the Rays in the World Series, there has been plenty of excitement in the games so far.  We have seen power hitting, clutch hitting, excellent fielding and daring baserunning in the Series.  Surely, you have seen and read about the Rays’ miracle win in Game 4; if you have not, Google is your friend.  As to that game ending sequence, moviegoers would boo and hiss if that were the scripted ending to yet one more sequel to The Bad News Bears – – but somehow it worked in real life.

Game 5 on Sunday night was a perfect example of why God inspired someone to invent the DVR.  After enjoying an OT game on Sunday Night Football Game 5 of the World Series was like enjoying a sip of aged grappa as a digestivo after a nice meal.  Daring baserunning put the Rays in position to tie the game and then snatched that opportunity away.

• Manuel Margot stole second base and advanced to third when the ball skipped away from the Dodgers’ infielder covering second base on the throw.  The play at second was close as was the play at third base because the ball did not “skip away” very far.  The Rays trailed by a run at that point in the game; there were no outs at the time.
• A couple of pitches later, Margot was thrown out trying to steal home – – and that play was as close if not even closer than the two plays that got Margot to third base to set it all up.

Today is a day off for both the Dodgers and the Rays.  That fact led Dwight Perry to pose this pertinent question in the Seattle Times over the weekend:

“Which timeout is the more needless time waste — the NFL’s two-minute warning or MLB scheduling a “travel day” (or two) during a single-site World Series?”

Here is another astute observation from Professor Perry in the Socratic form of question and answer related to the two-minute warning:

“Q: How could you tell whether you were watching the NFL game or the presidential debate on TV Thursday night?

“A: The Giants and Eagles stopped at the two-minute warning.”

Having backed into talking about the NFL, let me offer a suggestion to the NFL mavens.  You have put in place COVID-19 protocols that are purposefully and intelligently designed to reduce the probability of viral transmission.  One element of those protocols is that coaches and team staff must wear masks on the sidelines during games.  Obviously, there will be moments when a coach needs to lower his mask to enable others to hear or understand what he is saying; those sorts of brief “exposures” are imperfect but understandable.

Here is what should not be tolerated:

• Coaches, assistant coaches and staff members on the sidelines with masks that cover only their mouth and not their nose.
• In the past, the NFL has levied fines for not wearing a mask; coaches with “noses out” should be fined half that amount and the league office only need to watch the television feeds for the games to identify which coaches to collect from.

A former colleague and long-term reader of these rants sent me an email with a football trivia question.  I shall pose the question here and the answer further down in the rant:

• “Two colleges have produced three different Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.  Can you name the schools and the quarterbacks?”

[I got one of the schools and its QBs but not the other one without “cheating” and using Google.]

Down in Miami, the Dolphins enjoyed their BYE Week and are obviously spending time getting set for the dawning of the Tua Era in Miami.  The Dolphins chose to use the BYE Week as the time to make this move; you could convince me that this was their plan from the beginning even though you would need to be a mind-reader to know that was the case.  Ryan Fitzpatrick said he was “heartbroken” when he got the news that he was going to the bench; and if you look at his last two games as a starter, you can probably understand why.  In those last two games:

• The Dolphins were 2-0.
• Fitzpatrick was a combined 40-55 for 541 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs.
• 10 yards per pass attempt and 13 yards per completion is pretty impressive.

In my mind, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career has been QB who served as a “back-up” or a “fill-in due to injury”.  It was not until I went looking for his stats in these last two games that I learned that Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken 6204 snaps in his career and has completed 3024 passes.  That is a lot more “backing-up” or “filling-in” than I had realized.

Here is the trivia answer:

• Alabama has produced 3 Super bowl winning QBs – – Bart Starr, Joe Namath and Ken Stabler.  [This is the one I figured out myself.]
• Purdue has produced 3 Super bowl winning QBs – – Len Dawson Bob Griese and Drew Brees.  [I forgot where Len Dawson had gone to college.]

Finally, since I have “stolen” items from Dwight Perry twice already, let me complete the trifecta here with another of his items:

”At TheOnion.com: ‘Mitch Trubisky studying game tapes in hopes of discovering what Bears saw in him in first place.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Geoffrey Chaucer observed, “Time and tide wait for no man.”  And so, the passage of seven days’ time – – having failed to wait for anyone – – brings us to another Football Friday.

Before I review last week’s Six-Pack, I must take issue with Salvador Dali for a moment.  Dali said, “Have no fear of perfection – you’ll never reach it.”  Look back at last week’s Six-Pack and you will see perfection attained – albeit as a mirror image.  Here are the results:

• College:  0-3-0
• NFL:  0-3-0
• Combined:  0-6-0

That lowers the season totals to:

• College:  5-11-1
• NFL:  10- 9- 0
• Combined:  15-20-1

Having attained perfection – it is just as difficult to be wrong on every pick as it is to be right on every pick – you would think that I would simply retire on my laurels.  Not to worry; I live by a slight twist on Dali’s statement above:

• I do not fear shame; I seek out ways to demonstrate my inabilities.

And so it goes…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

This week marks the beginning of the Big 10 football season.  A few months ago, the Big 10 announced that it would not be playing football in the Fall of 2020 for public health reasons and for the protection of its students and “student-athletes”.  Any claim that the Big 10 schools may have tried to stake on the moral high ground related to those issues is rendered null and void as of kickoff time tomorrow.  The pandemic is not nearly under control – especially in some of the states where Big 10 schools reside – and yet, they will play football.  I have no problem with that decision except that it is nothing more than an inability on the part of the schools to keep their hands off the revenue spigot.  If only they would just admit that…

Kentucky beat Tennessee 34-7.  This is the first win for Kentucky on the road against Tennessee since 1984.  The stats appear to be even in the game; Kentucky’s offense was 297 yards and Tennessee’s offense was 287 yards.  Here is a big part of the difference; the Vols turned the ball over 4 times in the game and those 4 turnovers came on 4 consecutive possessions in the first half.  Two of those turnovers were Pick Sixes within 3 minutes of each other; OUCH!  I ran across this great stat:

• In the last two weeks, Kentucky has allowed a total of 9 points and intercepted 9 passes.
• That does not happen very often…

Arkansas beat Ole Miss 33-21.  Ole Miss scored 48 points on Alabama two weeks ago and scored zero points in the first half here against Arkansas.  Explain that one to me, please…  Ole Miss outgained Arkansas for the game by 48 yards, but they turned the ball over SEVEN times – –   six pass interceptions and a lost fumble.  Arkansas is now 2-2; that is one more win in the SEC than they have had in the last 3 seasons.  It is still early, but right now Arkansas is a great comeback story.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 28-14.  The story here is the offensive stats for Mississippi State.  They threw the ball 40 times for 219 yards – 5 yards per attempt and 7 yards per completion.  Those are “dink-and-dunk stats” not “Air Raid Offense stats”.  Moreover, the Bulldogs ran the ball 20 times accumulating a net yardage of minus-2 yards.

• Memo for Miss State Bulldogs:  Those offensive numbers “don’t feed the bulldog”…

I have to wonder if the Miss St. OL is up to the task here.  The Aggies recorded 6 sacks and another 8 tackles for a loss in this game.  In the last 3 games, the State offense has only scored a total of 30 points.

South Carolina beat Auburn 30-22.  This is not an important outcome, but it is interesting because the last time South Carolina beat Auburn was in 1933.  Here are six other things that happened in 1933 for perspective:

1. Construction of the Golden Gate Bridge in SF began.
2. The first broadcast episode of The Lone Ranger aired.
3. The first edition of Newsweek magazine hits the streets.
4. The board game, Monopoly, is released.
5. MLB stages its first All-Star Game.
6. The first NFL Championship Game took place.

Alabama beat Georgia 41-24.  Scoring 41 points on the Georgia defense is very impressive; racking up 564 yards of offense against that defense is beyond impressive.  Georgia led 24-17 with less than a minute to play in the first half and 24-20 at halftime.  Then the second half happened and here are the Georgia possessions:

• Punt, Punt, Interception, Missed FG.

That is correct; Georgia only had the ball four times in the second half and only one time in the 4^th quarter.

Miami beat Pitt 31-19.  The Hurricanes rebounded from the spanking they got from Clemson two weeks ago to win this game handily.  The stats for the game look relatively even; Miami outgained Pitt by only 31 yards in the game.  The difference was 10 penalties on the Panthers and a miserable 3 for 17 by Pitt on third down conversions.  The Pitt rushing offense did not show up here; the total rushing offense for the day was a meager 22 yards.

Clemson beat Georgia Tech 73-7.  I said above that Clemson put a spanking on Miami two weeks ago.  If that was a “spanking”, this was “aggravated battery”.

Notre Dame beat Louisville 12-7.  This was either a titanic defensive effort by both teams or significant offensive ineptitude on the part of both teams.  Louisville’s total offense was 219 yards; Noter Dame’s total offense was 338 yards.

Florida State beat UNC 31-28.  Major upset here; the Tar Heels went off as 13.5-point favorites and lost outright.  UNC outgained Florida State on the day 558 yards to 432 yards and UNC won the first down stats 27-16.  What happened?  UNC was 2-12 on third down conversions and 0-3 on 4^th down conversions.  Here are the results of the Tar Heels’ eight possessions in the first half:

1. Punt
2. Punt
3. Punt
4. Punt
5. Turnover on downs
6. Interception
7. TD
8. Halftime

Va Tech beat BC  40-14.  The stats here also indicate that this should be a close game.  The Hokies won the “offensive stats” by a slim 461-435 margin.  BC turned the ball over 5 times – – 3 lost fumbles and 2 INTs – – and that was the difference in the game.

BYU beat Houston 43-26.  [Aside:  Both teams are the Cougars so I guess you could call this game a cat fight.]  BYU is having a really good year and lots of people have not been noticing.  BYU is 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 30 points per game.  BYU is an independent so theirs is not the most difficult schedule in the country, but they have not feasted on Division 1-AA teams either.  They have beaten Navy, Troy, La-Tech, UTSA and Houston.  A road game against Boise St. on Nov 6 could be interesting…

UCF lost again last week – – this time to Memphis 50-49.  The interesting thing about UCF this year is not the clamor from its fanboys that it should be – at a minimum – in one of the New Years’ Day bowl games; that nonsense is for past seasons.  No, the story this year is the penalty flags thrown on UCF.  They were penalized 10 times against Memphis last week – – and that was a good game for the Golden Knights. (BTW Memphis was handed 7 first downs in because of penalties in the game.)  In their 4 games this year, UCF has incurred 55 penalties – – yes, they lead the nation in that statistic.    In the loss to Memphis last week, both teams had more than 700 yards of offense; UCF threw for 601 yards. UCF led 35-14 with 11 minutes to play in the 3^rd quarter and then gave up 36 points in 26 minutes.

Ga Southern beat UMass 41-0.  This is interesting because it was the first game of the year for UMass.  This is a school with a “less than rich football tradition” [I am trying to be polite here.] that canceled its season early on.  Now they are back on the field upholding the UMass football tradition – – such as it is…

 

College Games of Interest:

 

Nebraska at Ohio State – 26 (68):  Nebraska was one of the most vocal critics of the Big 10’s decision to cancel football back in the summer.  Now the Huskers get to open on the road at Ohio State.  This is almost like a modern version of the old TV show from the 1950s, You Asked For It.

Alabama – 21.5 at Tennessee (65.5):  The Vols were blown away by Kentucky last week (see above).  Just to add a bit more drama to the mix, Tennessee fired its defensive line coach this week – as if it were his fault that the Vols only scored 7 points last week.  Alabama can score as much as they want in this game; will the Vols’ offense put up the pretense of a fight?  I think the Vols are over their heads here; I’ll take Alabama to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

South Carolina at LSU – 6 (55):  South Carolina had a historic win over Auburn last week (see above).  LSU had a week off thanks to the coronavirus.  Do I trust either team to play to a script off past performances?  No, I do not…

Auburn at Ole Miss – 3.5 (72):  The Total Line for this game opened at 63 points and has risen steadily all week.  There is an interesting matchup here:

• The Auburn offense ranks 57^th in the country at 366.8 yards per game.  Being kind, let us call that “mediocre”.
• The Ole Miss defense ranks 76^th in the country yielding 579.5 yards per game.  Only 77 teams have played so far this year so there is no room for kindness here; that defense stinks.

Penn State – 5.5 at Indiana (62):  Indiana won 8 games last year.  Penn State will not have its best RB, Journey Brown, who is out for the year with a “medical condition”.  Could be interesting…

Syracuse at Clemson – 46.5 (62):  This is a conference game with a spread like that?  Highly unusual – – notwithstanding last week when Clemson defeated another conference foe by 66 points.

Iowa – 3 at Purdue (52):  Purdue coach Jeff Brohm tested COVID-19 positive and has asked the NCAA to allow him to coach the game from his “isolation chamber”.  That will require the NCAA to waive one of its many stupid rules.  The NCAA response to that petition for sanity is the reason this game might be interesting.

Cincy at SMU – 2.5 (56):  These are the two remaining undefeated teams in the AAC.  Cincy is 3-0; SMU is 5-0.

Middle Tennessee State at Rice – 3.5 (50):  This is interesting because Rice is favored.  That does not happen often…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Steelers beat the Browns 38-7.  This was as dominant as the score would indicate; Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 times and intercepted twice – – one a Pick-Six.  Mayfield’s stats for the day were 10 of 18 for 119 yards and 1 TD and 2 INTs.  The Browns have won games this year by running the ball and controlling the pace of the game; the Steelers shut down the run game and won handily.

The Titans beat the Texans 42-36 (OT).  Maybe the Texans’ win two weeks ago was more than a “dead cat bounce”?  After all, they came from behind to force OT against an undefeated team here.  The two major problems facing the Texans are:

1. The defense gave up 600 yards of offense to the Titans here
2. The OL that is about as reliable as a deadbeat dad.  Deshaun Watson should sue for lack of support.

The Titans marched 82 yards in OT to score a TD and seal the game.  Derrick Henry scored the winning TD and – by the way – amassed 264 yards from scrimmage for the day.

The Falcons beat the Vikings 40-23.  The Falcons ran out to a 20-0 lead at halftime – – and did not blow such a lead for a change.  Matt Ryan threw 4 TDs in the game; Kirk Cousins threw 3 INTs in the game.  The Vikings are now 1-5.  That puts them in the following company – – all of whom are only 1 game ahead of the 0-6 NY Jets:

• Falcons
• Giants
• Jags
• Texans
• WTFs

Just to clarify … that is not a list one should seek to be on.  Moreover, the Vikes’ defense has allowed more points than any of the five teams on the list above (34 points per game).

The Colts beat the Bengals 31-27.  The Bengals led this game 21-0 in the first quarter but could not hold on.  [Aside:  Since the Falcons did not blow their huge early lead, another team needed to step up and do the deed.  Thanks to the Bengals here…]   Philip Rivers led the comeback with 3 TDs and 371 yards passing.  After the scoring eruption in the first quarter, the Colts’ defense smothered the Bengals’ offense.

The Lions beat the Jags 34-16.  Like the Falcons and the Bengals, the Lions amassed a big lead – – 21 points – – and followed the “Falcons’ Model” from last week and did not blow the lead.  Rookie RB, DeAndre Swift, scored 2 TDs and averaged 8 yards per carry on the day.  The Jags were just awful in this game – – but what’s new?

The Bears beat the Panthers 23-16.  The Bears are 5-1 for the year and lead the NFC North; the defense deserves most of the credit for this win.   The defense held the Panthers to 3-13 on third-down conversions and recorded 4 sacks along with 3 takeaways.

The Broncos beat the Pats 18-12.  The Pats lost a game where they did not surrender a TD; those 18 points came on 6 field goals.  The Pats slipped below .500 here and this is the latest in a season where they have been under .500 since 2002.  The Pats’ run game was anemic.  Cam Newton gained 76 yards on the ground – – half of that total coming on one play.  The running backs carried the ball 15 times among them and gained a combined total of 41 yards.

The Giants beat the WTFs 20-19.  The winning score came on a scoop-and-score in the 4^th quarter by the Giants’ defense.  The Giants offense was a no-show for most of the game.

• Giants total offense = 242 yards.
• Giants ran a total of 44 plays in the game.
• Giants had the ball in the Red Zone 3 times and got no TDs.
• Giants had the ball with “goal to go” twice and got no TDs.
• Giants won the game, nonetheless.
• These are two very flawed teams.

The Ravens beat the Eagles 30-28.  Early on, it looked as if this was going to be a game with a score something like 50-0; the Eagles’ offense was non-existent until someone flipped a switch and it started to click.  At one point in the 2^nd quarter, a screen graphic said the Eagles’ net offense was minus-7 yards.  The Ravens’ passing game was limited to dink-and-dunk stuff, but it was enough to get the job done.

The Dolphins beat the Jets 24-0.  The  Jets’ offensive futility was encapsulated in one play.  Joe Flacco dropped back to pass; got no protection; tried to scramble and kept retreating until he was sacked for a loss of 28 yards.  The Jets’ defensive futility is shown by the 24-point score.  Tua Tagovailoa saw the field for the first time with a little over 2 minutes to play in the game.  He has been named the starter for the Dolphins in their next game after a BYE week this week.  The Jets are the only winless team so far this year AND the Jets have not covered against the spread in any of their six losses.

The Bucs beat the Packers 38-10.  The Packers led 10-0 and seemed to be cruising until Aaron Rodgers threw a Pick-Six and everything went in favor of the Bucs for the rest of the game.  The Bucs dominated the second quarter 28-0.

The Niners beat the Rams 24-16.  Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff are QBs who are either very good or very bad depending on the phase of the moon or the closing price of soybeans.  Jimmy G played well here, and Jared Goff kept inventing ways to miss open receivers.

The Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17 on a rainy night in Buffalo.  I’m not sure what happened to the Bills’ defense but it did not show up in this game; the Chiefs ran the ball excellently (245 yards on 46 attempts) and threw it when necessary.  Josh Allen had a bad night; until early in the 4^th quarter when he led a Bills’ TD drive.  Up until that point, he had a grand total of 66  yards passing.  The Chiefs held the ball for just over 37 minutes in the game and gained 466 yards of offense as opposed to 206 yards for the Bills.  This game was not as close as the score makes it look.

The Cards beat the Cowboys 38-10.  This game was also not as close as it looks; this was an organized and well-executed ass-kicking from start to finish.  Kyler Murray had a terrible game for him completing only 9 passes, but the Cards did not need him because they basically ran the ball whenever and wherever they pleased.  The Cards gained 261 yards rushing on only 35 carries; the Dallas defense was a mirage in the game.  Also, four turnovers by the Cowboys did not help their cause.

The Cowboys are 0-6 against the spread in 2020.  In addition to that ignominy, there was another embarrassing moment in the 4^th quarter of this game.  The Cowboys were down 25 points (28-3) and tried a 58-yard field goal (surprise, it was no good).  And even if it were good, that would have made it a 22-point game.  Seriously now, a 58-yard field goal in the 4^th quarter down 25 points …  What is that all about?

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The defense stinks; the offensive line that used to be the strength of the team now has 5 former piano movers starting.  Dak Prescott could move enough to handle pressure; Andy Dalton needs a clean pocket to be effective; that offensive line is not going to give him a season of clean pockets.

If I were Dak Prescott’s agent, I would take the tape from this game against the Cards in to show to Jerry Jones when I negotiate for Dak next year.  [Aside: Andy Dalton is only on a 1-year deal, so it is not as if Jones signed his “backup QB for the future”.]   The Cowboys have no QB controversy; they have a QB conundrum.

In addition, the Cowboys’ secondary is porous – and that is being exceedingly kind.  And still, there are no rumors of them talking to Earl Thomas to come in and play safety.  That fact says something to me about the NFL grapevine…

 

NFL Games:

 

 The four teams on a BYE Week this week are:

• Colts:  They need to get their defense playing the way they did in the early games this season.
• Dolphins:  They will spend the week getting Tua ready to start next week.
• Ravens:  They will be sitting at home and rooting for the Titans to knock off the Steelers on Sunday.
• Vikes:  They will be running computer simulations of the rest of the NFL season to find any ways things can unfold with the Vikes on top of the NFC North.

Cleveland – 3 at Cincy (50.5):  So many parallels in this game…  both teams are in Ohio; both have young QBs taken #1 in the Draft; both QBs won the Heisman; both teams have “struggled” in recent seasons.  I could go on…  The Browns succeed when they can run the ball, control the pace of the game and remove the need for Baker Mayfield to have to throw the ball 35 – 40 times.  The Bengals run defense ranks 27^th in the NFL giving up 142.3 yards per game.  I think that is the way the game will unfold; I like the Browns – even on the road here – to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Dallas – 1 at Washington (45):  The spread opened the week with the Cowboys as 3-point favorites; this morning the game is either a 1-point spread or a “pick ‘em” game.  There is a macabre aspect of this game worth watching:

• The Cowboys’ defense cannot stop the run.  They rank 31^st in the NFL this year giving up 173.3 yards per game.
• The Cowboys’ pass defense is middling ranking 17^th in the NFL.  However, the Cowboys do give up long pass plays more than you would expect for a pass defense ranked in the middle of the league.
• Here is the deal, though.  The WTFs do not run the ball well nor do they throw it deep.  So, what is going to happen there…?

I think it is far more likely that this game will be lost as opposed to won.  The team that makes the last mistake will be the loser.  If you are interested in trends, here are a few:

• Cowboys are 14-2 straight up against division opponents in their last `16 games.
• Cowboys are 13-3 against the spread in those same 16 division games.
• WTFs are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games against the Cowboys
• WTFs are 2-6 against the spread in those same 8 games against the Cowboys.

Your mileage may vary.  Only one thing is certain:

• This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Detroit at Atlanta – 2.5 (54.5):  Take a deep breath here; both teams will arrive at the kickoff coming off a win last week.  Do you believe the Falcons are rejuvenated under the guiding spirit of Raheem Morris?  Do you trust the Lions on the road against anyone other than the Altoona Asthma Attacks?

Carolina at New Orleans – 7 (51):  Teddy Bridgewater returns to the Superdome where he was Drew Brees’ understudy for 2 years.  The Saints had a BYE Week last week and Michael Thomas is about to return to action; that good news needs to be tempered by the fact that the Saint’s defense has not been good this year and that unit is not getting any sort of talent infusion.  The Panthers are playing surprisingly well so far this year – – but I am not yet ready to trust them on the road in a division game.

Buffalo – 12.5 at Jets (46):  The Jets are at home and playing a division rival.  And, they are  a double-digit underdog.  Talk about a slap in the face.  The Bills’ defense has not played up to its press clippings in the last couple of games.  Against the Jets’ OL, and against a slow-as-molasses Joe Flacco at QB, I think the Bills’ defense will look good in this game.  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games so I will not make a selection here.

Green Bay – 3.5 at Houston (57):  Have the Texans rejuvenated themselves with Bill O’Brien being somewhere else? Can the Texans’ defense – – worst in the NFL against the run – – stop Aaron Jones?  Will Deshaun Watson have a field day against a Packers’ defense that allows 27.2 points per game?  This could be an interesting game to watch. 

(Sun Nite) Seattle – 3 at Arizona (56):  Here is a stat that surprised me:

• In the 6 games played by the Cards so far this season, all 6 of them have gone UNDER.

The Seahawks had a BYE last week while the Cards had their laugher of a game against the Cowboys.  The Seahawks’ defense is last in the NFL giving up 471.2 yards per game – – and yet, they are 5-0.  Will this turn into a track meet?

SF at New England – 2 (44):  The spread here opened with the Pats as 5-point favorites, but that number has been eroding all week.  I would not be surprised to see this as a “pick ‘em game” by kickoff.  The Pats are definitely struggling this year on offense even with Cam Newton on the field; the Niners are a M*A*S*H unit.  There will be lots of gooey commentary here about Jimmy G returning to Foxboro.  Ho-hum…  I like the Niners in this spot; I’ll take them plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

KC – 9.5 at Denver (46):  The Broncos won last week without scoring a TD (see above).  That offensive productivity will not cut it this week.  I think the Chiefs will play better than they did last week in Buffalo and that the Broncos will not be able to keep up.  Here are some trend stats relative to this game:

• Since 2015, the Chiefs are 28-4 straight up against division rivals.
• The Chiefs are 21-10-1 against the spread in those 32 games with division rivals.
• The Chiefs have won 9 in a row over the Broncos
• The Chiefs are 8-1 against the spread in those 9 wins over the Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Las Vegas (no lines):  The Raiders had to send their offensive lineman home for isolation due to a coronavirus exposure.  This was supposed to be a Sunday night game, but it was “flexed” to Sunday afternoon because the NFL did not want to take the chance that there would be no Sunday Night Game this week.  The Raiders like to run the ball with Josh Jacobs as the main man in that attack.  I think the Bucs defense might be able to take that aspect of the Raiders’ game away.  In that circumstance, I think the Bucs can dominate this game.

Jax at Chargers – 7 (49):  I know both teams here have bad records; combined they are 2-9 for the season.  However, the Jags lose games by an average of 9.3 points per game and the Chargers only lose by an average of 3 points per game.  The Jags’ defense is an illusion; I think Justin Herbert and his pass catchers will have a field day.  I like the Chargers at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.  Here is a trend that boosts my confidence in this selection:

• The Jags are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games in the Pacific Time Zone.
• The Jags are 2-8 against the spread in those same 10 Pacific Time Zone games.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee – 1.5 (50.5):  This is the Game of the Week featuring two teams that bring 5-0 records to the field.  The spread opened with the Steelers as a 1-point favorite and has eased over to the Titans’ side of the ledger.  I think the oddsmaker was right at the beginning of the week; I like the Steelers to win the game straight up, so I’ll take them plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.  In addition, I think that both teams are going to be able to score on the other guy’s defense.  So, in addition, I like the game to go OVER; put that in the six-Pack too.

(Mon Nite) Chicago at Rams – 6 (45):  Even a Ouija board cannot predict the arc of this game.  You have Aaron Donald and his buddies up against a less than dynamic Bears’ offense.  On the other hand, you have an erratic Jarod Goff going up against a dominant Bears’ defense.  My advice is simple; pour yourself a nice glass of Chianti and sit back and see what happens…

Let me review the Six-Pack and note for the record that I cannot do any worst than I did last week:

• Alabama – 21.5 over Tennessee
• Chargers – 7 over Jags
• Steelers +1.5 against Titans
• Steelers/Titans OVER 50.5
• Browns – 3 over Bengals
• Niners + 2 against Pats.

Finally, as a tip of the hat to the start of Big 10 Football this weekend, here is an observation regarding college football in general by H. L. Mencken:

“College football would be more interesting if the faculty played instead of the students – there would be a great increase in broken arms legs and necks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Based on a report that was out there last week, NFL fans may have dodged a bullet.  We have seen the need for the league to have scheduling flexibility in this COVID-19 influenced season; games have been moved around and postponed and the like.  According to the report last week, if the Lions/Jags game had to have been postponed, the only option left for the league would be to play that game in Week 18.  There was no way to put that game anywhere in the existing 17-week schedule.  The existence of a “Week 18” would necessitate a change in the playoff schedule and the Super Bowl; it would be disruptive.

Now, imagine for a moment that the NFL gets incredibly lucky with its schedule-juggling act for the rest of the year.  Would anyone want the Lions/Jags game to be the only game taking place in a “Week 18”?

That report, coming so early in the season, points to the likelihood of an extended regular season this year.  However, the only reason to play games in an extended season between teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs or involving a team whose playoff seeding is cast in concrete would be to ascertain the order in the 2021 NFL Draft.  That is pretty thin gruel in terms of motivation and meaning – – but once the extension has been scheduled and the playoff games moved and the Super Bowl moved, there is no real way to untangle that mess.

Fans dodged the bullet last week of seeing a Lions/Jags game in Week 18, but there are other riflemen on the firing squad.  Fans need to remain nimble – – and lucky.

While on the subject of the NFL and things that do not make a lot of sense, let me bring up the NY Jets once again.  After their loss to the Dolphins last week, the Jets traded DT, Steve McClendon to the Bucs.  McClendon is 34 years old; by the time the Jets rebuild and approach relevance, he will likely be out of the league.  Nonetheless, he is functional defensive lineman at this point in his career and the Bucs need a DT because of an injury to Vita Vea.  So, the trade made sense to me in that the Jets – seemingly – were trading away veteran assets to amass more draft picks.

However, as I looked at the details of the trade, things got a bit murkier:

• Bucs get McLendon plus the Jets’ 7th round pick in 2023
• Jets get the Bucs 6^th round pick in 2022.

Forget the timing of the two draft picks; that is really getting down into the weeds.  A 6^th round pick is marginally better than a 7^th round pick – with the emphasis on the word marginally.  So, the Jets sent off one of their starting defensive linemen for a marginal improvement in draft position in 2022.  That’s it?  That’s all there is?

The story continues…  In this morning’s Washington Post, there is a report according to “a person with direct knowledge of the deal” that the Jets have traded outside linebacker Jordan Willis to the Niners.  Willis is not the second coming of Lawrence Taylor, but he is a functional player and the Niners need defensive help due to injuries.  So, here is the reported deal:

• Niners get Jordan Willis plus the Jets’ 7th round pick in 2022
• Jets get Niners’ 6^th round pick in 2022.

Stop me if you have heard this before…

Take these trades and juxtapose them with the outright release of LeVeon Bell about a week ago; the Jets got nothing for Bell, a pittance for McClendon and a drop in the bucket for Willis.  Now, tell me that the Jets have not thrown in the towel on the 2020 season…

As I said, Steve McClendon is a competent DL and Willis is a functional LB, but they were simply marking time with the Jets.  There is no defensive lineman or linebacker in the history of the NFL who could make the 2020 Jets into a good team.  In fact, the 2020 Jets even prior to these player giveaways might be an historically bad team if they continue the path they are currently on.  Consider:

• After 6 games, the Jets have a point differential of minus-110.  That is an indictment of the Jets’ offense and the Jets’ defense.
• [Aside:  The next worst point differential this year after 6 games belongs to the miserable Jags – – but the Jags’ mark is only minus-56 points which is only half of the Jets’ margin of defeat.]
• If you project the Jets’ stat out to 16 games – I know, that is not likely to happen – the Jets’ point differential for the season would be minus-293.3 points.
• The worst point differential in NFL history was posted by the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs in 1976 at minus-287 points.

On track to be historically bad…

There was another report late last week that made me scratch my head.  The report at CBSSports.com said that the Lions coaches were working with Matthew Stafford on his footwork mechanics.  I recognize that no one is perfect; everyone has room for improvement.  Having said that, I wonder if it might be a bit late to make any significant changes to Matthew Stafford’s muscle memory.

• In his college career, Stafford dropped back and threw 987 passes completing 564 of those passes.  He had 51 TDs and 33 INTs and was the overall #1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
• In 12 seasons in the NFL, Stafford dropped back and threw 5,864 passes completing 3661 of those passes.  He had 265 TDs and 138 INTs.

It is about time someone corrected his footwork…

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Seahawks QB Russell Wilson says he taught speedy second-year wideout DK Metcalf to swim this summer.

“The 100-yard fly, we presume.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………