Football Friday 12/4/20

For many people, the most accurate sentiment expressed on Friday is:

  • Boom-Chakalaka!

Here in Curmudgeon Central, Friday is not considered to be a time for raucous behavior because Friday in Curmudgeon Central is Football Friday.  And the traditional way to begin is to review the results – no matter how embarrassing they may be – of last week’s Six-Pack.

  • College: 1-2-0
  • NFL:  1-2-0  [Is there an echo in here?]
  • Combined:  2-4-0

Those results bring the pitiful season-long results to:

  • College:  10-17-1
  • NFL:  17-25-1
  • Combined:  27-42-2

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Three more of the college football bowl games were officially canceled last week.  The Sun Bowl, normally played on New Year’s Eve in El Paso, TX, will not happen this year.  I was unaware of the fact that the Sun Bowl had the second longest run of consecutive bowl games behind only the Rose Bowl.  Had the game happened this year, it would have been the 87th game in the history of that celebration.

Another bowl game casualty this year will be the Las Vegas Bowl.  On tap was a game between teams from the SEC and the PAC-12 and it would have been the first bowl game played in the new Allegiant Stadium normally home to the NFL’s Las Vegas Raiders.

The third bowl game to bite the dust was the Pinstripe Bowl normally played in Yankee Stadium in NYC.  This year the game was to feature a Big-10/ACC confrontation but travel restrictions plus local regulations on having fans in attendance at live events made this game impossible.

If my research is correct, here are the bowl games that will not happen this year:

  1. Bahamas Bowl
  2. Celebration Bowl
  3. Fenway Bowl
  4. Hawaii Bowl
  5. Holiday Bowl
  6. Las Vegas Bowl
  7. Motor City Bowl
  8. Pinstripe Bowl
  9. Redbox Bowl
  10. Sun Bowl

That list represents a whole lot of airtime that the myriad ESPN networks will need to backfill.  These must not be fun times at the HQs of the World Wide Leader…

Last week, Iowa State beat Texas 23-20.  This keeps Iowa State firmly in charge in the Big-12 and it has caused extreme agita among the Texas alums.  This is the first time in the history of Iowa State football – – going back to 1892 – – where the Cyclones have beaten Texas and Oklahoma in the same year.  That is the positive outcome from this result.  The more cynical question that arises is:

  • Does this make the deep-pocketed Longhorn boosters sufficiently itchy to pull the trigger and buy out Tom Herman? 

Do not be surprised; Texas is 9-7 in conference games since Herman took the reins.  That is not the sort of record one might expect when the hiring of Tom Herman was accompanied with declarations that “Texas is back!”

On the other hand, realism would suggest to those deep-pocketed Longhorn boosters that Texas has not been a Big-12 champ since 2009.  Mack Brown was the coach then and those same impatient and deep-pocketed boosters ran his butt out of town on a rail.

  • Memo to College Football Coaches:  Anyone taking the Texas job needs to do two things:
  1. Come to grips with himself that he is taking this job for the money and not for the glory.
  2. Make sure his agent has an iron-clad and cushy buy-out clause in the contract.

Iowa beat Nebraska 26-20.  The Huskers led 20-13 with 12 minutes to play in the third quarter but they never threatened to score after that.  After that point of the third quarter, here is the Nebraska offense through the final 27 minutes of the game:

  • 3 plays  4 yards  PUNT  Time of possession = 1:44
  • 7 plays  40 yards  PUNT  Time of possession = 3:04
  • 7 plays  12 yards  PUNT  Time of possession = 2:41
  • 4 plays  20 yards  LOST FUMBLE  Time of possession = 0:37
  • Totals:  21 plays  76 yards  Time of possession = 8:05

The Nebraska center has had problems with snaps at various times this season and continued to have difficulties in this game.  Nebraska coach, Scott Frost said that Iowa players were rhythmically clapping their hands on the sidelines and that interfered with the Nebraska cadence.  To the surprise of exactly no one, Iowa coach, Kirk Ferentz dismissed that idea as nonsense.

  • Memo to Nebraska Coaching Staff:  Be sure to recruit a center for next year’s team that can deal with opponents’ rhythmic clapping strategy.  In the meantime, have you ever heard about ear plugs?

Missouri beat Vandy 41-0.  The only interesting thing about this game is that Sarah Fuller – the goalkeeper on the Vandy women’s soccer team – suited up and was the kicker for the Commodores in this game.  She never got a chance to try a PAT or a field goal; her only participation for the day was a squib kick on the second half kickoff that Missouri downed at the 35 yardline.  Fuller is the first woman to play in a football game in one of the so-called Power 5 conferences.

In the week after this result, the SEC dialed-up to 10 in virtue signaling.  Sarah Fuller was named the co-Special Teams Player of the Week in the SEC.  She did something no one had done before but her performance last week merits exactly no accolades:

  • Her only play was the kickoff to open the second half.
  • It was a squib kick; it went all of 30 yards.
  • Memo to the SEC:  You wanted everyone to look at you and say what a good thing you did last week having a woman participate in a football game.  Ok, we are looking at  you.  Unfortunately, what we see is that you have demeaned the idea of naming a Special Teams Player of the Week.  You no longer recognize football as a meritocracy.

Alabama beat Auburn 42-13 in the Iron Bowl.  This is what I call an “efficient win” because Bama was a 28.5-point favorite at kickoff and won by 29.

Florida beat Kentucky 34-10.  Both defenses played better in this game then they had in the previous several weeks – – but the Florida offense is much superior to the Kentucky offense.  Kentucky ran the ball effectively, but its passing offense netted a total of 62 yards for the day.  Just as a simple approximation, that is about 1 yard per minute of playing time; just for clarification; that is not good.

Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 31-24 in the Egg Bowl.  Considering that there was a total of 1029 yards of offense in this game, it was relatively low scoring.  Mississippi State had 440 yards passing and 39 yards rushing (on only 14 carries).  That is what  you call an unbalanced offense.  Ole Miss ran out to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter; Mississippi State clawed its way back to only trailing by 3 points – – 24-21 – – midway through the 4th quarter but they could never get on the plus side of the scoreboard.

Texas A&M beat LSU 20-7.  Each team gained exactly 267 yards on offense; this was a defensive slugfest.  The Aggies came within a minute of pitching a shutout; LSU scored with only 43 seconds left on the clock.  Both teams were a less-than-laudatory 2 of 16 on third down conversions.  The difference can be found in the 3 turnovers committed by LSU as opposed to 0 turnovers by Texas A&M.

It is time to pay the Aggies some attention.  They have exactly one loss so far this year – to Alabama which is no embarrassment – and they have a win over Florida in The Swamp.  Florida is on track to be the SEC East champion.  This is the kind of “relevance” that Aggie boosters envisioned when they coughed up the big bucks to hire Jimbo Fisher.

Notre Dame beat UNC 31-17.  The game was tied at halftime at 17; then the Irish defense asserted itself.  The Tar Heels had the ball 6 times in the second half; they punted on the first 5 possessions and lost the ball on downs on the 6th possession.  Total yardage for UNC in the second half was 78 yards on 27 plays – – 2.89 yards per snap.

Clemson beat Pitt 52-17.  At the end of the 1st quarter, Clemson led 31-0; there was never any mystery about how this game would end up.

Oregon State beat Oregon 41-38 in the Civil War.  Oregon had been considered the best of the PAC-12 teams and Oregon State was considered as an “also-ran”.  Not anymore, this is a big dent in Oregon’s image nationally.  Oregon led 31-19 starting the 4th quarter and surrendered that lead badly.  If the perception of Oregon as the best team in the PAC-12 persists, then the PAC-12 just became irrelevant when it comes to the CFP.

Stanford beat Cal 24-23.  Cal scored a TD with about a minute left in the game to make the score 24-23 but the PAT was blocked, and Stanford ran out the clock.  Cal won the stat battle gaining 393 yards to 300 yards for The Cardinal.

Indiana beat Maryland 27-11.  In the first half, Maryland drove into the Red Zone 4 times and came away with a total of 3 points.  The Terps clamped down on Indiana WR, Ty Fryfogle, holding him to only 2 catches for a total of 10 yards.  However, Indiana demonstrated a run game that had not been particularly effective until this game and ran the ball for 234 yards.

Penn State beat Michigan 27-17.  That is win #1 for the Nittany Lions and another embarrassment for the Wolverines.  The Wolverines were outgained by 131 yards for the day; Penn State faced 19 third-down situations and converted 8 of them.  If Penn State wins another game this year, it will be the 900th win in school history dating back to 1887.  Here is the rest of the Penn State schedule:

  • Dec 5:  At Rutgers
  • Dec 12:  Vs. Michigan State

Michigan State beat Northwestern 29-20.  So much for Northwestern being undefeated and dominating the Big-10 West.  At 5-1, Northwestern still leads that division, but Iowa is 4-2 and the Hawkeyes have now won 4 in a row.  Turnovers played a big part in the Northwestern loss; they gave the ball away 4 times in the game and only took it away once.

Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech 50-44.  That keeps Oklahoma State on pace to be part of the Big-12 Championship Game, but this was not a game designed to impress the CFP Selection Committee.  Tech outgained the Cowboys by 100 yards in the game driven by 384 yards passing against the Cowboys’ defensive backfield.  Yes, this was a “bounce-back win” for the Cowboys after losing to Oklahoma last week – – but beating Texas Tech by only 6 points is not a résumé builder.

East Carolina beat SMU 52-38.  At halftime, E. Carolina led 45-7.  SMU rallied in the second half, but they had dug themselves into too deep a hole to pull out the game.

Wyoming beat UNLV 45-14.  This is not a game of any consequence, but I cite it here because Wyoming ran the ball for 399 yards in the game.  That yardage came on 55 rushing attempts; at one point in the second half, the Cowboys ran off 28 unanswered points along the way to this rout.

UMass ended its season at 0-4 with a shutout loss to Liberty 45-0.

Meanwhile, in the MAC , Buffalo beat Kent State 70-41.  Buffalo RB, Jaret Patterson ran wild here; he ran for 409 yards and scored 8 TDs.

Elsewhere in the MAC, E. Michigan is winless at 0-4.  Last week they led Central Michigan 20-6 at the start of the 4th quarter.  Then the E. Michigan defense disappeared and allowed Central Michigan to score 25 points in the 4th quarter providing E. Michigan with that 4th straight loss of the season by a score of 31-23.

La-Monroe lost to La-Lafayette 70-20.  The only marginally important thing about this game is that it leaves La-Monroe with an 0-9 record for 2020.  To date, La-Monroe has been outscored 372 – 148.  Ouch!  La-Monroe has two games left on its schedule against Arkansas State and against Troy – – both games are on the road.

 

College Games of Interest:

 

I believe that 19 scheduled games this weekend have been either canceled or postponed.  There were 5 games scheduled for today; 4 of them will not happen.

 

Vandy at Georgia – 35.5 (53.5):  Given the Georgia defense, I wonder if Sarah Fuller will get to try a field goal or a PAT this week.  Given the standard for last week, if she makes a 35-yard field goal, she should be named Player of the Year in the SEC…

BC at UVa – 4 (55):  BC will have to go without its first string QB and its featured RB in this game.  Virginia had last week off due to virus problems at Florida State.  I like the Cavaliers to win and cover at home; put it in the Six-Pack.

Ohio State – 24 at Michigan State (59):  The Buckeyes are 4-0 and need to play 6 games to comply with Big-10 rules for 2020 for participation in the Big-10 Championship Game.  Just in case one of the final two games needs cancelation due to COVID-19, the Buckeyes need to post impressive an impressive win in the other game to impress the CFP Selection Committee.  I think that happens here; I’ll take Ohio State on the road to cover this monster spread; put it in the Six-Pack.

Nebraska at Purdue – 1 (62.5):  Clap – – Clap – – Clap-clap-clap…

Penn State – 11.5 at Rutgers (52):  As noted above, this would be the 900th win for Penn State football.

Florida – 17.5 at Tennessee (62.5):  The Gators are looking at the SEC Championship Game as the winner of the SEC East.  The Vols are not likely to derail that train…

Oregon State at Utah – 11.5 (52):   The Beavers pulled off a major upset of Oregon last week (see above); Utah has not won a game yet this year.  The oddsmakers seemingly have brushed aside those facts setting the line here…

Stanford at Washington – 11 (50.5):  Well, if Oregon is not the class of the PAC-12 as had been suggested, maybe Washington is…?

Oklahoma State – 1 at TCU (51.5):  This is a must-win for Oklahoma State if they want to stay in contention for the Big-12 Championship Game; TCU cannot make it to that game.

West Virginia at Iowa State – 6.5 (49):  The Cyclones have only 1 loss in conference and lead the race to the conference Championship Game.  West Virginia has 3 losses in conference.

Indiana at Wisconsin – 14.5 (44.5):  In what looks to be a low-scoring game, that line looks fat to me.  I’ll take the Hoosiers plus the points on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Kansas at Texas Tech – 27 (62.5):  Texas Tech is not a good football team; they are 3-6 going into this game.  Kansas just plain stinks: they are 0-8 starting this game.  The oddsmakers obviously think Kansas stinks a lot worse then does Tech with the line they have on this game.

Texas A&M – 6 at Auburn 48.5):  Both teams have to deal with inconsistent play from their QBs.  Auburn’s Bo Nix can look like a bum one week and an early round NFL Draft pick the next.  The Aggies’ Kellen Mond is as unpredictable as the weather.  What is consistent is the Aggies’ defense.  Even though Auburn is tough at home, I like the Aggies to control this game on defense; I’ll take the Aggies to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Alabama – 29 at LSU (66.5):  It is not often that LSU is a 29-point underdog at home; after all, LSU does not schedule the New Orleans Saints.

BYU – 10 at Coastal Carolina (62.5):  This is a late “fill-in game” because Coastal was supposed to play Liberty this week until the coronavirus intervened.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            The Niners have moved their home operations to Arizona for the rest of the season because of new coronavirus restrictions in place in Santa Clara County.  A team without a home should be called the Vagabonds, no?

There is precedent for this sort of thing in NFL history.  In 1952, there was an NFL team called the Dallas Texans – not to be confused with the Dallas Texans of the AFL in the 60s that subsequently became the KC Chiefs.  The Texans were miserable finishing the year with a 1-11 record.  They started out playing their 1952 home games in the Cotton Bowl but after 4 losses there, they had their final two home games moved.

  • The Texans played the Chicago Bears in Akron, OH in the Rubber Bowl.  That game produced the only win of the year for the Texans by a score of 27-23.  That game was played on Thanksgiving Day and drew the grand total of 3000 fans who probably wondered why this circus had come to town.
  • The final “home game” for the Texans was against the Detroit Lions.  The teams had met earlier in the year in Detroit – – but this game was also moved to Detroit as the venue for the final game.  The first meeting of these teams had drawn just over 33,000 fans in Detroit; this final game of the season drew only about 12,000.

            In the college football commentary above, I mentioned the abject silliness offered up by Scott Frost to explain the problems his center had with snapping the football.  I thought for sure, that would set the bar for football-related balderdash for the week.  I was wrong; there is an NFL entry into that contest this week.  I will leave it up to you to decide which self-delusion is the greater.

Jerry Jones the owner, GM and mouthpiece for the Dallas Cowboys, tried to equate the Broncos’ having to play Kendall Hinton at QB last week to the Cowboys’ having to play Ben DiNucci at QB against the Eagles earlier this year.  Calling this “poppycock” would pay it an undeserved compliment.  Yes, both the Broncos and Cowboys had to play someone at QB that they had never planned to play at the position in 2020.  However, that is where the comparison ends:

  • Kendall Hinton’s NFL football career will be as a WR if he has an NFL career of any kind.  He was a QB for parts of seasons at Wake Forest but in his final year he transitioned to WR exclusively and was drafted as such.
  • Ben DiNucci’s NFL football career will be as a QB if he has an NFL career of any kind.  He was a QB all the way through college and the Cowboys – with Jerry Jones in charge of the Cowboys’ NFL Draft War Room – traded up to draft DiNucci in the seventh round of last year’s NFL draft.

The Cowboys spent future draft capital to acquire a guy they wanted to have on their team as a backup QB; the Broncos drafted a WR.  Saying that there is a solid comparison of the fates that befell the Broncos and the Cowboys is totally stupid.

Last week, The Saints beat the Broncos 31-3.  The Broncos were playing with a QB who was clearly overmatched; at half time, Kendall Hinton was:

  • 0 of 7 for 0 yards  (obviously) with 0 TDs (obviously) and 1 INT.

Hinton “improved in the second half” such that his final stat line read:

  • 1 of 9 for 13 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Nonetheless, when your starting QB throws more INTs than he does completions in a game, you are in deep yogurt.

The Falcons beat the Raiders 43-6.  How did that happen?  The Raiders may have squandered their “playoff cred” with this stinkpot of a game.  Derek Carr who had been playing very well for the last month managed to turn the ball over 4 times in this game; the Raiders turned the ball over a total of 5 times and those turnovers led to 23 points for the Falcons.  The Raiders have been a smash-mouth running team that bullies opposing defenses; the Falcons defense is hardly fearsome; so how did the Raiders manage a measly 40 yards rushing on 14 carries?  It was the Falcons that controlled the ball for 34:38 in this game and it was the Falcons that earned 23 first downs to only 13 for the Raiders.  The only “throwback stat” that might make Al Davis smile is that the Raiders were flagged for 14 penalties in the game to the tune of 141 yards.

The Vikes beat the Panthers 28-27.   The Panthers got two scoop-and-score TDs from Jeremy Chinn early in the third quarter to take a 21-10 lead. Late in the 4th quarter the Panthers were gifted a muffed punt that led to a field goal but a TD pass from Kirk Cousins to Chad Beebe along with the PAT provided the margin of victory for the Vikes.  The Vikes remain “sorta relevant” for a playoff spot in the NFC with this win.  Forget “sorta relevant” when you are talking about the Vikes’ rookie WR, Justin Jefferson; he is “really good”!

The Browns beat the Jags 27-25.  The Browns are now 8-3 and are squarely in the AFC playoff picture.  With that 8th victory, the Browns have assured that they will not have a losing season in 2020; it will be the first non-losing season for the Browns since 2007 and it will be only the 3rd season since 2000 without a losing record.  A cautionary note for the Browns, however, is that even with an 8-3 record, their point differential for the 2020 season is minus-21.  The loss accompanied the firing of Jags’ GM, Dave Caldwell; this was the Jags’ 10th loss in a row after winning their season opener.  The Jags started Mike Glennon at QB; he is the third QB to start for the team this year.  Jags rookie RB, James Robinson, accounted for 159 yards from scrimmage and a TD in the game.

The Giants beat the Bengals 19-17.  The Giants did everything they could in the final 4 minutes to keep the Bengals in the game but managed to hold on for a 2-point win.  That put the Giants in the lead – for the moment – in the NFC East but QB Daniel Jones had to leave the game with what appeared to be a hamstring injury.  Colt McCoy came in to finish the game but was involved in one of the meat headedness  events that kept the Bengals hopes for a miracle win alive late in the game.  The Giants’ defense held the Bengals to 155 yards of offense for the game.

The Pats beat the Cards 20-17.  The winning play was a 50-yard field goal by Nick Folk as time expired.  Cam Newton had a statistically miserable day with this stat line:

  • 9 of 18 for 82 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs
  • 9 carries for 46 yards

Nevertheless, the Pats prevailed on the scoreboard to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Kyler Murray had an equally unimpressive day with these stats:

  • 23 of 34 for 170 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT
  • 5 carries for 31 yards.

The Dolphins beat the Jets 20-3.  Sam Darnold returned to the Jets as the starting QB.  His stat line was underwhelming:

  • 16 of 27 for 197 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB for the Dolphins in the game and he had a good if not great game.  Against these Jets, it usually does not require a “great game” to secure a win and move on to the following week.  The Dolphins have now played 2 games – –  8 quarters of football – – against the Jets this year and have allowed the Jets to amass the grand total of 3 points – – the field goal in this game.

The Bills beat the Chargers 27-17.  The stat sheet looks balanced except for the Chargers’ inability to convert third-down situations.  The Chargers were only 3 for 16 on third down conversions.  Chargers’ QB, Justin Herbert had another good game for stats:

  • 31 of 52 for 361 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

The Chiefs beat the Bucs 27-24.  Early on, It appeared as if the Chiefs might win this game 49-3 or something like that and perhaps Patrick Mahomes would break Norm Van Brocklin’s record for passing yards in a game (554 yards) set back in 1951.  The Chiefs led 27-10 at the start of the 4th quarter but the Bucs put on a serious rally that just fell short.  The Chiefs got the ball with 4 minutes left to play in the game leading by a field goal and never relinquished possession of the ball.   Tyreek Hill scored on receptions of 75, 44 and 20 yards, and finished the game with 13 catches for 269 yards  The Chiefs won their sixth straight game and notched their seventh 10-win season in the last eight years under Andy Reid.

The Niners beat the Rams 23-20.  The Rams are the closest the NFL comes to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde – – and it was Mr Hyde who showed up last week.  The Niners’ defense rose up and stifled the Rams’ passing game such that Jared Goff posted this stat line:

  • 19 of 31 for 198 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs.

That is better than what the Broncos got out of their QB last week – – but the Broncos never drafted him with the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft…  Neither side dazzled on offense.  The Rams turned the ball over 4 times; the Niners gave it away 3 times.  Combined, the teams faced 27 third-down situations and combined they converted all of 7 of those.

The Packers beat the Bears 41-25.  The game was not that close; it was 41-10 to start the 4th quarter and the Bears got two meaningless TDs after that.  Given the Bears’ less than proficient offense, their only hope was to thwart Packers’ drives and make then kick field goals.  Well that did not happen; when the Packers drove the ball, they scored TDs from beginning to end.  Michell Trubisky was the QB for the Bears and he was not nearly as bad as the score might indicate – – but he did miss a couple of very open receivers in the game.

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 23-17.  The Seahawks were clearly the better team on the field, but the Eagles’ defense kept the game in doubt until late in the 4th quarter.  DK Metcalf caught 10 passes for 177 yards in the game; the Seahawks total offense was 301 yards, so Metcalf accounted for 59% of the team output for the night.  The Seahawks at 8-3 lead the NFC West; the Eagles at 3-7-1 are half a game out of first place in the NFC East.  Go figure…

The Steelers beat the Ravens 19-14.  It took the NFL about 150 hours to get through last week’s games – – but this one got it done.  It was either a “game of defensive might” or a “game of ineptitude on offense”; take your pick.  The Ravens with RG3 and Trace McSorley at the controls managed a total of 219 yards of offense for the day – – 70 of which came on a single play.  The Steelers had the ball for more than 33 minutes and amassed a puny 334 yards on offense.  Perhaps the biggest news item from this game is an injury to Steelers’ LB, Bud Dupree.  He left the game in the 4th quarter with a knee injury that is feared to be a torn ACL.

 

NFL Games:

 

Two teams are on BYE weeks this week.

  • The Bucs have a week off to try to blend a Bruce Arians offense with a Tom Brady offense to a greater degree than they have done so to date.
  • The Panthers have a week off to get two of their best offensive players – – Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey – – back in playing condition.

Detroit at Chicago – 3 (45):  This game opened the week with the spread at 6 points.  I am not sure why enough people are interested in this game to bet enough money on it to move the line – – but it happened.  Personally, I think this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Bears have lost 5 in a row; the Lions have lost 2 in a row.  But the Lions just fired their coach and players seemed happy to get that news.  Purely a hunch here but maybe the Lions exhibit a dead-cat bounce for this game; I’ll take the Lions – even on the road – plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Cincy at Miami – 12 (42):  Who will be the starting QBs here?  Both teams have choices to make there.  There is no choice, however as to which defense is better.  The Dolphins rank 2nd in the NFL giving up 18.6 points per game; the Bengals rank 22nd in the league giving up 26.8 points per game.  The Dolphins have playoff possibilities in sight as motivation for this game; the Bengals’ only real motivation deals with how high a draft pick they are going to get next year.  Two trends point this game toward the Dolphins:

  1. Dolphins are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games as the favorite
  2. Bengals are 0-17-1 straight up in their last 18 road games

Indy – 3 at Houston (50.5):  The Colts must win here if they hope to win the AFC South.  Currently they are a game behind the Titans; the teams have split their head-to-head games, but the Colts already have 2 division losses to only 1 for the Titans.  The Texans will playout the rest of the season without starters Bradly Roby on defense and Will Fuller on offense.  They will both serve 6-game suspensions for PED usage.  The Texans are 4-7 on the year and had players using performance enhancing drugs?

Jax at Minnesota – 10.5 (51):  The Jags can choose between 3 QBs to start this game – – none of whom can claim to be anything more than a journeyman even though one of them is a rookie.  The Vikes will start a hot-or-cold QB.  The Vikes are still mathematically alive as a playoff team but a loss here would be devastating.

Las Vegas – 9 at Jets (47):  The line opened at 8 points and has been moving slowly upward all week; at one sportsbook this morning you can find the game listed at 10 points.  The Raiders were awful last week (see above); the Jets have been awful since the start of the season.  The Raiders’ playoff hopes would take a significant hit if they lose this game.  The Jets’ control over next year’s NFL Draft would take a significant hit if they win this game.  The Jets lose games by an average of 15.5 points per game; the Raiders are better than an average opponent; give me the Raiders to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

New Orleans – 3 at Atlanta (45):  The Saints lead the NFC for now and control that single BYE Week in the playoff schedule for this year.  The Falcons can still make the playoffs, but it will take the intervention of a Fairy Godmother to make that happen.  Taysom Hill led the Saints to a win over the Falcons a couple of weeks ago; now coaches have a few games worth of film to study Hill’s game; that could be significant this week.  However, do not look for a big game from the Falcons running attack:

  • Falcons rank 30th in the NFL in yards per carry
  • Saints rank 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry.

Cleveland at Tennessee – 6 (53.5):  This line opened the week at 3 points and has been slowly but surely creeping upward.  Both teams appear to be locks to make the playoffs come January and this is the only game on the card this weekend where you can make that statement.  Hence, I declare this to be the Game of the Week.  Both teams win by running the football; the Browns lead the league averaging 161.4 yards per game rushing; the Titans are 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense at 158.2 yards per game.  Three trends here should give Browns’ fans pause:

  1. Browns are 3-30 straight up in their last 33 games as road underdogs.
  2. Browns are 1-15 straight up in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record.
  3. Titans are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 games as the favorite.

Giants at Seahawks – 10 (47):  The spread opened at 7 points; it jumped to 9 points very quickly and has continued to rise from there.  Yes, I know that this is a battle between two teams that currently lead their divisions – – but the Giants do so because they stink less than the other 3 teams in the NFC East at the moment.  Russell Wilson and company are not going to run wild on an improving Giants’ defense.  However, the Giants QB options for this week are:

  • Daniel Jones nursing a hamstring injury which will certainly limit his scrambling game to some extent – – or – –
  • Colt McCoy who is a veteran – – but a veteran without an impressive record.  As a starting QB, his teams are 7-21-0 in 28 games – – or – –
  • Clayton Thorsen who is a rookie on the practice squad and you get bonus points if you can name the school where he played college football without resorting to Google.

I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games, but the Seahawks are undefeated at home and the Giants’ QB situation looks awfully bleak; I’ll take the Seahawks and lay the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Rams – 3 at Arizona (48):  The Rams lead the Cards by a game and both teams still have an eye on the playoffs even though both are looking up at the Seahawks in the NFC West.  The Cards have lost 3 of their last 4 games and have not looked in sync in any of them.  Watching Jalen Ramsey play DeAndre Hopkins should be worth the price of admission here – – if there were tix to be had.

Philly at Green Bay – 8.5 (48):  The Eagles’ defense played very well last week; they will need to replicate that performance this week if they want to keep up with the Packers.  The Packers lead the NFL in scoring at 31.8 points per game; the Eagles’ offense is not nearly so effective ranking 25th in the NFL and scoring only 21.5 points per game.  The only ray of hope for the Eagles is that they rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry and the Packers rank 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry.  A successful run game might limit the time Aaron Rodgers has to carve up the Eagles’ defense…

New England at Chargers “pick ‘em” (47):  The line for this game is all over the place.  You can find the Pats as 1-point favorites; you can find the Chargers as 1.5-point favorites; the most common line is simply “pick ’em”.  This is a long trip for the Pats and the team has not been impressive recently.  Cam Newton may not be the better QB on the field.  However, remember that Bill Belichick teams are 20-6 against rookie QBs…

(Sun Nite) Denver at KC – 14 (51):  The Good News for the Broncos is that they will have a real QB to start in this game.  The Bad News for the Broncos is that the Chiefs will start Patrick Mahomes at QB in this game.

(Mon Late afternoon) Washington at Pittsburgh – 7.5 (41.5):  This line opened at 9.5 points and fell to this level very quickly.  The strength of the WTFs is their defense – – and the Steelers’ offense has not been dominant this year and looked pedestrian against the Ravens on Wednesday.  The loss of Bud Dupree to the Steelers’ defense means they are now down two quality linebackers having lost Devin Bush earlier in the season.

(Mon Nite) Buffalo at SF – 1 (47):  The spread here opened the week with the Bills as 3-point favorites; somehow the move to Arizona makes the Niners favored?  Maybe so, after all, the Niners are only 1-4 in home games in Santa Clara.  The last time the Bills played at Arizona, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins beat them with a Hail Mary pass at the end of the game; that is not going to happen again.  I like the Bills to win outright, so I’ll take them with the 1-point cushion; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Tues Nite):  Dallas at Baltimore –  9.5 (45):  The Ravens have lost 3 games in a row; they are 2 full games behind the Browns in the AFC North AND they are only on the fringe of participating in the playoffs.  A loss here would be significant.  Yes, Dallas still has a shot to win the NFC East.  So what?  Dallas will have had 2 weeks off since playing on Thanksgiving Day; the Ravens will play on a short week after losing to the Steelers on Wednesday.  Two trends of interest here are:

  1. Ravens are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 home games against losing teams
  2. Cowboys are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games on the road.

So, let me review the so-called Six-Pack which is over-crowded with 8 selections this week.

  • UVA – 4 over BC
  • Ohio State – 24 over Michigan State
  • Indiana +14.5 against Wisconsin
  • Texas A&M – 6 over Auburn
  • Raiders – 9 over Jets
  • Lions +3 against Bears
  • Seahawks – 10 over Giants
  • Bills +1 against Niners

Finally, since I mentioned that two Texans’ players will be suspended for 6 games for using PEDs, here is a comment from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times on the same subject but different player:

“Seahawks D-lineman Damontre Moore got suspended a half-dozen games for violating the NFL’s policy on using performance-enhancing substances.

“In other words, a sit-six.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

NBA Stuff Today …

The rumors from the last week or so about a straight-up trade of Russell Westbrook for John Wall almost came true yesterday.  I say almost, because the Wizards also threw in a future protected draft pick in the deal.  Lots of people seem to think that this trade is transformative; I read one report that said this is the first time in NBA history that an overall #1 pick in the NBA draft had been traded for a former NBA MVP.  I have not bothered to try to verify that because I do not think it would be worth the effort to do so.  My assessment of the trade is that two very good and very exciting to watch players were exchanged and nothing much else has changed. Moreover, my assessment here assumes – – yes, I know the danger there – – that John Wall recovers completely from the Achilles tendon injury that has kept him out of action for more than a  year.  Let me explain:

  • John Wall is a player whose game is built around his speed and his ability to get to the basket.  The fact is that Wall is not a great shooter; he is, however, a volume shooter.  In four of his seasons, Wall has been in the Top 20 in the NBA in field goal attempts; in five of his seasons, he has been in the Top 20 in the NBA in field goals missed.
  • Russell Westbrook is virtually the same player.  In nine of his seasons in the NBA, Westbrook has been in the Top 20 in field goal attempts; in fact, in three of those seasons, he was 1st in the NBA in shots attempted.  In eleven of his NBA seasons, Westbrook has led the league in field goals missed and he led the league in that category 4 times.

By team metrics, the Wizards will appear to have been the winner of the trade because the Rockets appear to be in a tear-down/rebuild mode while the Wizards appear to have their eye on making the playoffs for the next couple of years and hoping to get lucky with a draft pick or with a free agent who has his heart set on playing in DC.

If the Rockets also trade away James Harden – as is rumored – and are left with John Wall, Boogie Cousins and PJ Tucker as the top players, the Rockets are not going to be serious playoff contenders.  On the other hand, Russell Westbrook paired with Bradley Beal should provide the Wizards with sufficient offense to make the playoffs – – but not much more than that.

In the long run, both the Rockets’ and the Wizards’ future success in the NBA will depend on what the teams do outside of this trade.  That is why I do not think the trade is “transformative” and why I do not think that it will be worth the time and effort to analyze these two players and their teams in microscopic detail over the next year or three.

Sticking with the NBA, I think that LaMelo Ball was fortunate not to have been taken with the overall #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft.  [In case you missed it, he went to the Hornets with the #3 pick.]  Any Top 5 pick in the Draft draws scrutiny; the overall #1 pick gets an examination that would reveal if he chewed his fingernails.  La Melo Ball will get heightened scrutiny over and above all of that because of the hype his father crated for his older brother Lonzo.  [You may recall that Lonzo Ball was going to make Laker fans forget about Magic Johnson as a Lakers’ point guard.]  To be the overall #1 pick and to be the second Ball brother to come to the NBA would have been an unfair burden to put on someone who just turned 19 years old.

Bob Molinaro had this item in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot recently:

“The NBA’s announcement that it wants fans in arenas when the season begins in late December represents an absurd turnabout for a league that shut down in March when COVID-19 cases across the country were less than 400. Now, with daily cases of 120,000 or more and hospitals and morgues reaching crisis levels, the league thinks it’s just fine to open up again because the owners are missing their money. Precautions involving fan testing and spaced out seating arrangements are not nearly good enough the way things are trending. I’d be surprised, too, if at least some local governments don’t step in to squash the plan.”

That assessment is spot-on.  Given that the circumstances of the pandemic in early December 2020 are such that more than a few jurisdictions have banned attendance at outdoor sporting events such as football games, it is almost ghoulish to think about having fans attend indoor sporting events.  I understand the owners’ economic motivation here and I sympathize with their current plight.  At the same time, one of the epidemiological models I saw recently said that if the country were to relax its efforts to contain the virus – – open up bars and restaurants and workplaces without any restrictions at all – – the national death toll could be as high as 650,000 people by March 1st, 2021.  That is a prediction from a model; it is imperfect to be sure; nevertheless, that projection ought to be sobering and it ought to convince rational adults that some forms of sacrifice are worth making.  I hope the NBA owners and players take heed…

Maybe the NBA will get a message directly from the coronavirus.  The NBA was spectacularly successful with its “Orlando Bubble” environment.  They set up a “clean” population and maintained it and monitored it for several months last summer so that they could finish their season and execute their playoffs without having an outbreak.  Basically, they took 22 of their teams, cleansed them and their staffs of the virus and played basketball games – lots of them.  Then players, coaches and staff went home.

As the NBA gets set to open training camp so it can start its 2021 season on December 22nd, there have been 48 positive tests for coronavirus among 550 players tested.  That is a “positivity rate” of just under 9 %; that is not nearly the worst infection rate I have read about, but it is a cautionary tale.  Lots of “clean teams” exited the “Orlando Bubble” but the virus managed to render about 9% of the league “contaminated”.

In the past week or so, announcements came that Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum each signed maximum contract deals of 5 years and $190M.  Just so there is no misunderstanding, both Mitchell and Tatum are excellent players, and their teams made the right move to lock them up for the next 5 years.  At the same time, it is worth noting that both Mitchell and Tatum are fortunate to have been born when they were:

  • Both players will take down $190M over the next 5 years.
  • Michael Jordan earned $93M over his career in the NBA – – assuming that I have added correctly.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this NBA-related item in the Seattle Times recently:

“Cavaliers guard Kevin Porter Jr. was arrested on a gun charge in Ohio after he crashed his car and investigating officers discovered a loaded firearm inside.

“Apparently he was on his way to the morning shoot-around.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The State Of College Basketball – – December 2020

The college basketball season marches on notwithstanding rashes of cancelled/postponed games even at the start of the season.  It is almost as if the folks in charge believe that if they ignore the very existence of the coronavirus, it will simply dematerialize, and the scourge will be lifted.  Would that it were so…

Back when the folks in charge were trying to figure out how and when to have a college basketball season, one of the ideas on the table was to limit the amount of traveling that teams would need to do.  After all, sitting on an airplane or in a train car with a random sample of the public who may or may not have an infected person among them for several hours was not a model for “containing the spread”.  And so, one of the annual early season “tournaments” held in the Bahamas was relocated to Sioux Falls, SD.  At the time of that action a couple of months ago, the coronavirus had not expressed itself significantly in the mid-west; that decision was well-intentioned and made sense at the time.

However, the coronavirus did make its way to the mid-west and recent public health statistics would probably call South Dakota a viral “hot spot” now.  Brad Dickson resides in Omaha; here is his view on travel to South Dakota in early December:

“I laugh whenever the ‘Visit Sioux Falls’ commercial comes on TV. Nobody in their right mind would vacation in South Dakota right now. It’s safer in the Middle East and inside most active volcanoes.”

In one sense, the college basketball planners did a good thing; they analyzed the situation as it was in an objective manner and then tried to adapt their needs for a basketball season to the “openings” that the virus seemed to provide.  On the other hand, the college basketball planners suffered from a case of hubris in thinking that they could outflank the viral spread.

I suspect that the success of the NBA and the NHL at the time gave the college basketball planners a sense of confidence that they might replicate those situations.  What the NBA and the NHL experiences actually showed, however, is that the coronavirus can be “controlled” in a limited footprint if three essential elements are in place:

  1. Everyone who enters “the bubble” at the outset goes into strict and monitored quarantine with frequent testing.  Ergo “the bubble” begins with a “clean population”.
  2. Any new entrants to “the bubble” need to be tested to a standard that will give confidence to the proposition that the new entrant is not bringing the virus in with him/her.  Similarly, all necessary contacts with the “outside world” – such as food delivery folks – must be closely monitored.
  3. There needs to be frequent and robust testing and re-testing of “the bubble population” with added contact tracing in the event of viral detection.

Nothing in the above is difficult in the sense that nothing in the above requires an invention or a scientific breakthrough.  At the same time, everything above requires diligence and money.  In the case of the NBA and the NHL, the leagues and the players’ unions provided the impetus for diligence and the money for implementation was available.  For college basketball, there is not “overseer” to provide the diligence and far too many of the 357 Division 1 college basketball participants do not have the money to try to make a “bubble” happen.

Absent a “bubble”, college basketball players are out and about on campus – and maybe even off-campus occasionally.  Chronologically and legally, they are adults; let me assert here that less than a majority of them have achieved a state of “wisdom” or even a state of “normal common sense” when it comes to thinking about the consequences of their behaviors.  Deferred gratification does not run rampant throughout the student bodies of US colleges and universities.

Why is the lack of appreciation for deferred gratification a problem?   Well, that is the “environment” in which college football players exist and look at the COVID-19 havoc that is rampant there.  The cost of establishing and maintaining an NBA-like “bubble” for a football team is beyond consideration; so, football teams have to put their players out there “on the economy” so to speak.  College football should provide a model for the ineffectiveness of the “on the economy” model when it comes to viral containment.

College basketball is practiced and played indoors – albeit in large indoor settings.  Nevertheless, logic, research and scholarly study have all pointed to the fact that coronavirus spreads more readily indoors than it does outdoors.  The situation now is that we have new data that indicate that college basketball in early December 2020 is not such a great idea.

College basketball in a normal November or December is just a menu dominated by glorified practices and scrimmages for most teams.  Do fans really look forward to a matchup between Kentucky and Quinnipiac or Michigan State and Utah Valley University?  It is time for the NCAA to make use of one of God’s great creations – – the “Pause Button”.

  • Let the teams isolate as best they can for two or three weeks and resume practicing just before Christmas.
  • Then – – hold your breath now – – look at the infection rates and viral spread in early January and let epidemiology suggest what the next step(s) should be.
  • Then follow the science…
  • Then play conference games only once the science says it is rational and prudent to do so.

What is the downside there?  Maybe the season does not resume until Feb or even March.  Maybe the NCAA Tournament does not happen until May or early June.  So what?

The college basketball mavens did the right thing in March 2020 shutting down the sport unequivocally.  They deserve praise for doing something that was not popular at the time but in hindsight was particularly important.  Things are different now; we know more about the coronavirus and one of the things we know is that it is widespread throughout the country and it is not nearly contained.  I think it is time for the college basketball mavens to take a deep breath and assess what might be “the right thing” to do now.

Finally, since I mentioned Brad Dickson above, here is another of his Tweets related to the idea of traveling about and gathering with friends and family these days:

“Listen to me. Thanksgiving and Christmas have now both been canceled. Stay home, don’t mingle with your extended family. Many of your family members don’t like you anyway. If you don’t do this, we’re prepared to cancel your birthday too. Thanks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Fix Is Not In…

Last evening, around halftime of the Eagles/Seahawks game, I went to check my emails and found one from a former colleague.  He was irate to say the least; I believe that if someone had offered him Roger Goodell’s head on a plate he would have accepted the trophy, fastened it to the end of a pole and planted that pole in his front yard.  My intention this morning is not to convince him that Roger Goodell and he ought to be “besties”, but I do think that he is being much harsher on The Commish than he should be.

Let me clean up the language in his email and do some paraphrasing.  After all, we have standards to uphold here in Curmudgeon Central; they may not be lofty standards, but they are standards.

  • The fix is in for the Baltimore Ravens.  The NFL wants them in the playoffs and will get them there “by any means necessary”.
  • Someone on the Ravens broke the NFL’s COVID-19 protocol and the team became a hotspot all within itself.  They get do-overs on their schedule to avoid having the Ravens lose a third game in a row.  [Aside: In one of the less virulent figures of speech in the email, my former colleague said that the NFL had moved the Ravens/Steelers game around “more than a knight on a chessboard.”]
  • When the Broncos had a similar problem and could not play a game with an eligible QB, the NFL made them play the Saints anyway.  [Aside:  My former colleague did not assert that the NFL had the fix in such that the Saints were guaranteed a playoff slot; his focus was purely on the Ravens.]
  • Do not be surprised if the NFL rehires Walt Coleman to call Ravens games all the way to January.

Let me explain that last paraphrase.  My former colleague continues to believe that Walt Coleman was acting on orders from on high when he made the “Tuck Rule call” in a Patriots/Raiders playoff game about two decades ago.  For the record, I know for sure that he does NOT believe in the Illuminati, the Trilateral Commission or the Deep State.  However, he will die on the hill that defends the position that every once in a while, the NFL overlords put their thumb on the scale of fair play to the benefit of specific teams.  And in 2020, he is convinced that the “teacher’s pet” in the NFL would be the Baltimore Ravens.

He concluded with this statement – – again I have edited it to make it comply with the community standards of Curmudgeon Central:

  • If he (The Commish) doesn’t bleeping make the Ravens bleeping forfeit the game against the Steelers, I hope he and all the bleepers at NFL HQs rot in hell.

That concluding statement is the easiest one to start with when it comes to reducing the level of acrimony  here.  No one wants to forfeit that game including the Pittsburgh Steelers’ players.  According to the CBA in place, if a game is forfeited, the players lose a payday.  So, if a player on the Steelers has a base salary in 2020 of $2M, he would lose approximately 1/16th of that salary if a game were forfeited.  That player would lose $125K.  Sure, the imaginary player in this example would still be financially secure but losing out on $125K when the player involved did nothing wrong is a sour deal for that player.  Ergo, I believe that the NFL – – and most importantly, the NFLPA – – will endure almost any sort of schedule contortion imaginable to avoid a forfeited game.

I think the latest scheduling change – and it is not guaranteed to be the final change – proves my assertion here.  The game is now scheduled for 3:30 PM on Wednesday December 2nd.  That is a strange time indeed for an NFL game; it is a workday and the game will begin on the West Coast at 12:30 PM; that pretty much assures low TV ratings which the NFL abhors.  The NFL – and its “broadcasting partner” NBC – have agreed to put a game that would have drawn a huge audience under normal circumstances into a time slot where it might be one of the lowest games of the year in terms of TV ratings.

Enough about a forfeit; that is a last resort; it is “the final solution” only to be invoked when there are no other options.  The other aspect of this situation is to examine the motivation(s) that the league – via The Commish – might have so that they are treating the Ravens under a special set of scheduling rules.  I spent time over my morning coffee today trying to come up with said motivations and cannot think of any that  might stand up to scrutiny in an unagitated set of circumstances.

  • Baltimore is not a huge TV market; in fact, it is only the third largest market among AFC North teams; Pittsburgh is a larger TV market than Baltimore.
  • The Ravens do not have “NFL history” as a motivator.  Surely the Steelers and Browns have “deeper NFL roots” than the Ravens do.
  • The Ravens’ owner, Steve Bisciotti, is certainly no more influential or a greater part of the NFL inner circle than are the Rooneys who own the Steelers.

The fix is not in; if the Ravens right their ship and make it to the playoffs it will be a result of just that; the Ravens righted their ship and got to the playoffs on the basis of their record.

Moreover, it is time to give Walt Coleman some respite and allow him to enjoy his retirement.  He was not a marionette dancing on strings pulled by higher-ups in the NFL back in 2002 when he invoked the Tuck Rule.  You may continue to disagree with that ruling; you may continue to think that Walt Coleman made the single worst call in the history of officials making calls.  But there is no evidence that Walt Coleman is the poster child for any sort of manipulation from NFL HQs when it comes to favoritism for certain teams.

Finally, I made reference to “the final solution” above; that phrase will always be part of the history of Nazi Germany; “the final solution” refers to Hitler’s all-out effort to eliminate Jews completely from Germany.  With that in mind, let me close with this entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

Hitler, Adolph:  Perhaps the world’s biggest butthole, whose prudent decision to blow his own brains out ensured there would be no intellectual-property ownership issues around the hundreds of hours of stock footage of him needed to keep the History Channel in business.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A New Form Of NFL Mimicry?

The NFL is clearly a copycat league; if one of the teams were to win a couple of games with an “outrageous tactic” – – such as never punting no matter what the field position, score or time left in the half or the game – – you would expect some other coach to try a variant on that tactic.  The NFL owners have been known to copy other owners too.  For example:

  • In 1954, the Baltimore Colts added cheerleaders to the team’s marching band.  Marching bands ceased to be “a thing” in the NFL but cheerleading squads proliferated.
  • In 2020, thirty of the thirty-two teams in the NFL have cheerleading squads; only the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants rely on their fans to figure out when to cheer and when not to cheer.

Perhaps, NFL owners are in copycat mode along another axis in 2020.  On Wall Street they say that when something happens, it is an event; when it happens twice, it is a coincidence; when something happens three times, it is a trend.  By that yardstick, we have a trend starting in the NFL:

  1. Four weeks into this season, the Houston Texans’ owner fired Bill O’Brien who was at the time the head coach and the GM of the team.
  2. Five weeks into this season, the Atlanta Falcons’ owner fired Dan Quinn who was the head coach and Thomas Dimitroff who was the GM of the team.
  3. Eleven weeks into this season, the Detroit Lions’ owner fired Matt Patricia who was the head coach and Bob Quinn who was the GM of the team.
  4. Twelve weeks into the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars fired GM Dave Caldwell but retained coach Doug Marrone – – at least for the time being.

Might it be the case that owners have figured out that a losing team may not be uniquely the fault of the head coach and that the roster presented to that unsuccessful head coach might have been substandard?  It seems to me that was the case in the Texans and Falcons situations; while I am not yet ready to declare that the Lions roster is overflowing with talent, I think there might be a larger measure of blame to put on the head coach in that case.  The entire situation in Jax appears to me to be a sh*tburger.

When the Lions hired Matt Patricia in 2018, they had posted a 9-7 record in the 2 years prior to his arrival; Matt Patricia inherited a winning team from his predecessor; that is not a luxury every new NFL coach can enjoy.  Since coming to Detroit, Patricia’s Lions have posted a record of 13-29-1.  Even if you prefer to quibble about the margin of the “winning record” Patricia inherited, you must concede that 13-29-1 is nowhere near a winning record.  And that bleak record looks even worse considering:

  • In 2019, the Lions started the season at 2-0-1.  Then they lost 12 of the last 13 games in that season finishing at 3-12-1.
  • In 2020, the Lions were 4-7 under Patricia.
  • Ergo, in his last 24 games with Matt Patricia as the Lions’ head coach, the team record was 5-19.

Whoever gets the GM job in Detroit – – or in any other NFL city with a losing team – – will face a special challenge this year.  The NFL salary cap in 2020 is $198.2M; since the cap is calculated based on the league’s “football revenue” from the previous year, the cap is likely to take a hit during free agency cone February 2021.  I saw one projection that said the cap could be as low as $175M for 2021.  Forget the exact number for a moment; the NFL salary cap is going to go down.

The first thing that comes to mind regarding that situation is that this is not a good year to be a free agent looking for a big payday.  The bean-counters should be less likely to hand out such deals in an environment where the cap is contracting.  At the same time, a new GM taking over a team that needs a “roster reshuffling” has to deal with the reality that he does not have nearly as much money to wave around to attract free agents that might have a positive impact on the team’s fortunes.  I think NFL GMs – new ones and carryovers alike – are going to earn their salaries once the free agent season commences.

Switching gears …  When I listen to football analysts on telecasts or on a studio show, some of them assert that the key to gaining yardage is to “run downhill”.  Other experts tell me that the key to gaining yardage is to “run north and south”.  Let me ignore the reality that football fields are crowned in the middle of the field and sloped to the sidelines; that allows for water runoff when it rains.  That fact means that “running downhill” would quickly get the guy with the ball out of bounds.  What I would like is for these analyst/experts to clarify their metaphors because here is what I interpret from them:

  • If both metaphors are appropriate, they can only be simultaneously achieved if the player is on the top of a mountain ridge that runs due east/west.  In that case he can run downhill north and south toward either goal and would need only to recognize which goal he was seeking to get to.
  • BTW, NFL football venues are not located at the tops of mountain ridges…

Moving on …  Bob Molinaro of the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot was dead solid perfect <Hat Tip to Dan Jenkins> with this overview of the recently begun college basketball season:

“Risky behavior: Five of the original eight teams in the men’s basketball Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic — with a name like that, it must be a classic — backed out because of rising cases of coronavirus in South Dakota. What, then, was VCU thinking when it leapt at the chance to be a last-minute replacement for Wichita State in Sioux Falls? Desperate and reckless are two of the kinder words I’d associate with the school’s decision. Same for the other schools that sent athletes there. Given the circumstances, why is this tournament even being held?

“Patience: The giddiness at the opening of a college basketball season featuring the usual low-wattage, often lopsided games — diminished even further when played in empty gyms — is nuttier than usual given the health crisis. Colleges shouldn’t be in such a hurry. Non-conference play in risky times should not be a priority. Safeguarding the integrity of league schedules should be.”

Finally, consider this Tweet from humorist Brad Dickson as an example of TMI:

“When I attended UNL I played on an intramural basketball team called The Loose Stools. To my surprise the Daily Nebraskan printed scores of our games. You don’t wanna know the rejected names we came up with.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 11/27/20

I presume that everyone had a safe and sound Thanksgiving yesterday and that the tryptophan-induced “’coma” has passed.  That means  you are ready for Football Friday.  As usual, I shall begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack.

It was another embarrassingly bad week for my selections.  If you recall, I picked eight games; two were not played and the other six were all incorrect.  [Aside:  If I were being dishonest with my accountings here, I could claim both cancelled games as wins because I took the UNDER in one of them and I took the underdog in the other game.  But we do not do weasel-like things here in Curmudgeon Central.] So, here are the damages:

  • College:  0-2-0
  • NFL:  0-4-0
  • Combined:  0-6-0

That drops the season record to these embarring depths:

  • College:  9-15-1
  • NFL:  16-23-1
  • Combined:  25-38-2

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Am I the only one to notice that more than a few college football games now take close to 4 hours from start to finish?  Somehow the adoption of hurry-up offenses has managed to slow down the typical game.  Actually, I think there are two other factors that have a bigger time-stretching effect on college football games:

  • Stopping the clock on every first down until the chains are reset
  • Very inefficient replay reviews.

I wish the “Rules Mavens” would make adjustments there…

Bob Molinaro made this interesting point in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot last week:

Fun fact: Since 2016, Florida State has had more NBA first-rounders (five) than NFL first-rounders (three).”

A couple of years ago when Tennessee last went looking for a football coach, their first pick was Greg Schiano – – but there was an uproar and a revolt when the name was put forth because of unsubstantiated rumors that Schiano might have been involved in helping to cover up Jerry Sandusky’s heinous activities with underage boys at Penn State.  The key element here is that those rumors were unsubstantiated in 2017 and remain unsubstantiated today.

Tennessee hired Jeremy Pruitt and the results after two-and-a-half seasons are not particularly exciting.  The Vols have posted a 9-14 record in SEC games and a 15-17 record overall.  With a fanbase that thinks its team should be a CFP contender, that is serious underachievement.

Schiano was hired to return to Rutgers as the head football coach last December.  In his first incarnation there, Rutgers went to a minor bowl game 6 times in 11 seasons.  When he left; the program collapsed.  In his first year back at Rutgers the record is 1-4 – – but the program is respectable and not a gridiron embarrassment.  Playing a Big-10 schedule, it would be miraculous for Rutgers to win 10 games in a season, but Schiano has shown that he is a solid college football coach.  Meanwhile back in Knoxville, there is a hot seat warming up under Jeremy Pruitt…

Tennessee is similar to Rutgers in that the Vols are in a division and conference that makes it very difficult for them to be a 10-game winner in a season – – and the fan base there wants to be part of the CFP decision process.  The big difference is that Jeremy Pruitt is likely to be fired for failure to make Tennessee relevant while Greg Schiano is probably going to polish his résumé just making Rutgers into something other than a joke.

Tennessee has now lost 5 consecutive games by double digits – – something that has never happened before to the Vols and they have been playing football since 1891.

Before I present you with a news item I ran across last week, let me pose a rhetorical question and let you provide your own answer:

  • Question:  Why move it and not cancel it?

Here is the news item:

“NEWS: Due to current state guidelines in New Mexico regarding college athletics and travel, the 2020 New Mexico Bowl will be staged in Frisco, Texas, at Toyota Stadium, on Thursday, Dec. 24, at 3:30 p.m. ET.”

To save you the time it would take to go and look it up. the tradition of the New Mexico Bowl goes all the way back to 2006.

Speaking about “cancellation”, the Minnesota/Wisconsin game this week has been canceled and this will be the first time since 1906 that the two teams have not met to play a football game.  They had played 100 games before the first New Mexico Bowl game took place…

Back in the summer, UMass canceled its football season – – and then decided to reinstate it for some unknown reason.  The Minutemen’s record is now 0-3 and that is a particularly ignominious version of an 0-3 record.  Consider:

  • GA Southern  41  UMass 0
  • Marshall  51  UMass 10
  • Florida Atlantic  24  UMass 2

Three games and the offense has produced 10 points.  They have played 12 quarters of football and scored a total of 12 points.  The Minutemen have one game left on the schedule against Liberty University today.  I am sure there was a rock-solid reason to reinstate this abbreviated football season – – but I do not know what it was.

Speaking of Liberty University, NC State beat Liberty 15-14.  That is the first loss of the season for Liberty.  The Wolfpack scored a safety late in the third quarter and that provided the margin of victory.  The stat sheet is a true reflection of how closely contested the game was.  The biggest differences were:

  • Penalties:  Liberty had 7 for 45 yards; NC State had 14 for 123 yards
  • Turnovers:  Liberty turned the ball over 3 times; NC State 1 time.

LSU beat Arkansas 27-24.  The Tigers scored with 4 minutes left in the game to secure the victory.  The game was as close statistically as it was on the scoreboard; LSU had 419 yards on offense and Arkansas had 443.  The biggest difference was that LSU converted 11 of 22 third-down situations while Arkansas was 0 of 10 in third down situations.

Ohio State beat Indiana 42-35.  The Buckeyes led 42-21 after 3 quarters but two quick TDs early in the 4th quarter put the game in doubt, but the Buckeyes held on to that lead through the final whistle.  Indiana WR, Ty Fryfogle had another huge game here catching 7 passes for 218 yards and 3 TDs.  [Aside:  Fryfogle is the first player in Big Ten history to have back-to-back games with 200 yards receiving.  Last week against Michigan State, he had 200 yards receiving on 11 receptions.]  Ohio State dominated the rest of the stat sheet gaining 607 yards on offense with 307 of those yards coming via the ground game.  The Ohio State defense held Indiana to minus-1 yard rushing for the day on 14 attempts.

Illinois beat Nebraska 41-23.   The last time Illinois beat Nebraska in Lincoln NE was back in 1924 when the halfback for the Illini was a guy named Red Grange. Huskers QB, Luke McCaffrey was the leading rusher for the Big Red last week.  When the QB is a team’s leading rusher, that is a stat that can indicate a big win or a big loss.  For this game, it was the latter.  The Huskers turned the ball over 5 times in the game; McCaffrey was the reason for 4 of those 5 errors losing a fumble and throwing 3 INTs.

Northwestern beat Wisconsin 17-7.  With this win, Northwestern takes the lead in the Big-10 West.  This was a defensive struggle; Northwestern gained only 263 yards on offense and got the win; Wisconsin only managed 366 yards for the game.  Northwestern forced five turnovers – four in the first half – and sacked Wisconsin QB, Graham Mertz three times.  Defense was truly the order of the day; there were 17 punts in the game because Wisconsin was 3 for 16 on third down situations while Northwestern was 2 for 15.

Northwestern is 5-0 on the season and this is the rest of their schedule:

  • At Michigan State
  • At Minnesota
  • Vs. Illinois

Other than an opening week blowout win over Maryland, the next four wins for Northwestern have been close.  The four games have been decided by a total of 26 points.

Iowa beat Penn State 41-21.  Penn State is 0-5 for the season; Penn State has been playing football for 134 years; this is the first time it has lost its first 5 games in a season.    Iowa led 31-7 midway through the third quarter .  then Penn State QB Sean Clifford completed a pair of touchdown passes for 96 yards in a 3:54 span that cut Iowa’s lead to 10 with just over a quarter left.  It made the game appear respectable.

Michigan beat Rutgers 48-42 in triple OT.  The game was tied at 35 at the end of regulation; neither team scored in the first OT; both scored in the second OT; Michigan prevailed in the third OT.  The stat sheet was as even as the scoring; Michigan offense was 497 yards; Rutgers offense was 482 yards.

In SEC action, Alabama beat Kentucky 63-3.  The score was 7-3 at the end of the first quarter.  That is as good as it got for the Wildcats last week.  The Alabama defense stifled Kentucky over the course of the game allowing only 179 yards of offense, 2 of 13 third-down conversions and only 3.1 yards per offensive play for the game.

Georgia beat Mississippi St.  31-24.  If you like to see a running attack, this was not a game you wanted to see.  Georgia managed all of 8 yards rushing for the day; Mississippi State was not much better gaining a total of 22 yards on the ground.  This was a back-and-forth game all the way; the biggest lead either way was 7 points.

In the Big-12, Iowa State beat K- State 45-0.  Iowa State sits atop the Big-12 race as of now with a record of 6-1 in conference and 6-2 overall.  As expected from that score, the stat sheet is very lopsided; K- State managed only 149 yards on offense for the game.

Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State 41-13.  Oklahoma gained exactly twice the number of  yards as compared to Oklahoma State in the game.  The Sooners scored 3 TDs in the first 9 minutes and never looked back.  Sooner QB, Shane Rattler posted this stat line:

  • 17 of 24 for 301 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.

As a result of this game, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas are all chasing Iowa State in the Big-12; all three schools have 2 losses in conference.  The Big-12 Championship will be decided by a playoff between the two top finishers.  In terms of tiebreakers, Oklahoma has beaten both Oklahoma State and Texas while Texas has lost to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  Texas hosts Iowa State this week in a very important Big-12 contest.

In other college football action, BYU beat North Alabama 66-14.  No shock here; BYU was a 47.5-point favorite at kickoff time, and they covered.  The Cougars are now 9-0 with one game left on their schedule against San Diego State on December 12th.

Cincy beat UCF 36-33.  Cincy remains unbeaten and should have a prominent placement in a New Year’s Day bowl game.  Maybe Cincy vs BYU?  Why not?  Potentially a battle of undefeated teams…

Oregon beat UCLA 38-35.  Maybe Oregon is a good team; maybe not.  The reason this game is worth mentioning is that UCLA turned the ball over 4 times (2 INTs and 2 lost fumbles) and all four of those turnovers became TDs for the Ducks.  In the first 10 minutes of the game, Oregon posted 2 TDs on drives of 19 yards and 32 yards.  Just before halftime, the Bruins gifted the Ducks a Pick-Six.  It turns out that UCLA has been sort of the football version of a Secret Santa in its 3 games so far this year.  They have turned the ball over 9 times in those 3 games 7 of those 9 turnovers have produced TDs for the opposition.

 

College Football Games of Interest:

 

If I have counted correctly, there have been 19 games either cancelled or postponed this weekend.  19 games off the card; COVID-19; yes, there is a connection there…

The Apple Cup game between Washington State and Washington will not be played this year. It was scheduled for today at Washington State, but according to a statement from the Pac-12, the decision to cancel the game was made because Washington State would not have the minimum required number of scholarship players available for the game based on positive COVID tests and contact tracing.

 

Kentucky at Florida – 25.5 (60):  Florida has not gotten a lot of attention as a CFP team but their offense is really good and it will be very interesting to watch it go up against Alabama’s defense in the SEC Championship Game – – should that be the pairing.  Kentucky began the year playing good defense, but it shriveled against Alabama (see above) and it yielded 35 points to Vandy.  Florida’s defense is not great either so this should be a scoring-fest; I’ll take the OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Pitt at Clemson – 22.5 (55.5):  I wonder if Dabo Swinney’s blood pressure will have receded to something like 190/155 by game time.  I shudder to think about what might happen if this game had to be canceled at the last minute like last week’s game against Florida State.

Northwestern – 12 at Michigan State (42):  That looks like a big number for Northwestern to cover (see above).  On the other hand, Michigan State has 3 losses for the season by an average of 25.7 points per game.

Penn State at Michigan – 1 (58):  The spread opened the week with Michigan a 3-point favorite.  This morning you can find the game at this number AND you can find it at 2 sportsbooks with Penn State favored by 1 point.  Given the records and performances by these two teams, call this the Disappointment Bowl.

Duke at Ga Tech “pick ‘em” (58):  Here is another game where the line varies significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook.  I found it with Tech as a 1.5-point favorite this morning and I found it with Duke as a 1-point favorite.

Maryland at Indiana – 12 (65):  The Total Line opened the week at 59 points and has risen steadily through the week.  Maryland has not played since November 7th; will they be rested or rusty?  Indiana still has a longshot for the Big-10 title game should Ohio State stumble; I think they recover from last week’s loss to the Buckeyes and beat up on Maryland here.  Give me the Hoosiers to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Arizona at UCLA – 10 (69):  Given UCLA’s proclivities to turn over the ball (see above), the oddsmaker must not think highly of Arizona at all…

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State – 10.5 (54):  This is a must-win for Oklahoma State if they are to keep hope alive for a Big-12 Championship.

Auburn at Alabama – 24.5 (63):  Even when oddsmakers think this will be a blowout game, the Iron Bowl is a game of interest.  Nick Saban will not be at the game because he tested positive for COVID-19; Steve Sarkisian will be “at the helm” for this weekend.

LSU at Texas A&M – 15 (63):  LSU has been a disappointment this season; the Aggies have been quietly over-performing expectations – – sort of like Florida and the Aggies have beaten Florida this year.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss – 9 (69):  Like the Iron Bowl game, the Egg Bowl game is always interesting.  Which version of the Mississippi State offense will show up here?  I think it will be the potent version mostly because the Ole Miss defense has been paper thin all year long.  I have no doubt that Ole Miss will bring a high-octane offense.  I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Stanford – 2 at Cal (51):  This is The Game.  Neither team has been impressive, but they will put forth best efforts here.

Oregon – 12 at Oregon State (65):  This game has been called the Civil War for years but now that name is considered to be much too outrageous for the sensitivities of some.  They can call it whatever they want, I like the idea of calling it the Civil War.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NFL has decided to take over an empty sports date on Saturday December 19th.  Two games scheduled for Sunday have been moved up a day giving the NFL Network two “national telecasts”.  The Bills/Broncos game will happen at 4:30 PM EST on Saturday December 19th and then the Panthers/Packers game will happen at 8:15 PM.  When I saw the announcement, I wondered why those two games were chosen to get a “national focus”; neither game appeared to me to be compelling.

Here is a link to the Week 15 schedule for the NFL.  There is not a plethora of games on tap for that weekend that appear all that “compelling” other than the Chiefs at the Saints.

Last weekend, The Panthers beat the Lions 20-0.  The Lions have not been a highly successful franchise over the last decade, but this is the first time they have been shut out in a game since 2009.  Last week, they never got to the Red Zone at all; they never threatened to make a game of it.  Meanwhile former XFL QB, PJ Walker, showed that he is a competent backup-QB for an NFL team throwing for 258 yards and 2 TDs.  The Panthers’ defense sacked Matthew Stafford 5 times and held the Lions to only 185 yards on offense.

The Saints beat the Falcons 24-9.  Sean Payton chose to go with Taysom Hill at QB instead of Jameis Winston and it worked out just fine.  Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing, 51 yards rushing, and he scored 2 TDs. The Saints’ defense must have made some magical halftime adjustments because the Falcons never crossed the 50 yardline in the second half until the final minutes when the game was on ice.  Matt Ryan suffered 8 sacks and threw 2 INTs facing that Saints’ defense.

The Saints’ QB situation here bears an eerie similarity to the situation with Pats about 20 years ago.  Drew Bledsoe – – THE man in town – – suffered a chest injury.  A “new guy” named Brady came in and played well enough that when Bledsoe had healed, Belichick stayed with the “new guy”.  Now we have Drew Brees on the shelf with a chest injury and a “new guy” named Taysom Hill who played REALLY well in one game as a sub – – and Brees has supposed to be out for at least 3 weeks because he is on IR.

As a sub-plot to that sort of QB intrigue is the status of Jameis Winston who signed on with the Saints to put a shine on his résumé but he is consigned to the bench when the “main man” cannot play.  That is not a good look…

The WTFs beat the Bengals 20-9.  The loss of Joe Burrow for the rest of the year is far more devastating to the Bengals than the loss of this game. Once he left, any pretense the Bengals may have had regarding “offense” was exposed as a sham.

The Browns beat the Eagles 22-17.  The Eagles are leading the NFC East – – for now – – and still present themselves as a hot mess.  Carson Wentz was under severe pressure every time he dropped back to pass – – even getting sacked in the end zone for a safety one time.  The Eagles running game was working early in the game and then the play calling abandoned it.  The Browns had a Pick Six in the first half and did just enough to win this game, but it was not pretty.  Nick Chubb is back and that is a big plus for Browns’ fans.

The Cowboys beat the Vikes 31-28.  This was a back-and-forth game; the Cowboys were in charge early on; the Vikes had the momentum in the second half.  The return of Andy Dalton to play QB for the Cowboys was obviously a plus but the biggest factor was that for the first half of the game, the Cowboys managed to make Dalvin Cook look like a run-of-the-mill running back.

The Titans beat the Ravens 30-24 in OT.  The Ravens’ offense looked good at times and inept at other times.  When the Ravens won the toss in OT and got the ball, the “inept offense” showed up and it was three-and-out.  The Titans took the ball and marched down the field until handing it to Derrick Henry who took it 30 yards to the end zone for the winning score.  The Ravens’ offense needs work and so does the Titans’ defense if they are to be meaningful participants in the playoffs.

The Steelers beat the Jags 27-3.  Jags’ QB, Jake Luton was under heavy pressure all day long forcing him to throw 4 INTs.  By comparison, Ben Roethlisberger had a leisurely time looking over the defense when he was back to pass.  The score pretty much summarizes the nature of this game.

The Texans beat the Patriots 27-20.  Going into this game the Texans had the worst run defense in the NFL and the Pats strength was their power running game.  So, naturally you understand how the Pats only managed 86 yards rushing in the game.  Sorry, I cannot…

The Broncos beat the Dolphins 20-13.  Tua Tagovailoa had a mediocre game at best and was pulled after 3 quarters.  Maybe Coach Flores was trying to protect his long-term investment in Tua because he had been sacked 6 times while in the game.  Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to work some late game magic, but his magic wand seems to have been in need of a recharge.  The Broncos did not play particularly well but they made the plays they needed to make to keep the Dolphins’ offense in check.

The Colts beat the Packers 34-31 in OT.  The Packers lost 3 fumbles in this game including one in OT that set up the winning score.  The Packers’ defense was on its heels for most of the game surrendering 411 yards to the Colts’ offense; the Colts’ defense did not stifle the Packers but did just enough late in the 4th quarter to get the game to OT.  The Packers had the ball first and goal at the Colts’ 8 yardline trailing 31-28 but could not get the ball into the end zone.

The Chargers beat the Jets 34-28.  The Chargers led 24-6 at halftime; the Jets had them just where they wanted them.  As is their wont, the Chargers gave back that dominant lead and the Jets made a game of it late.  Justin Herbert is the real deal, folks; he threw 3 TDs in this game and amassed 366 yards passing.  Yes, that was against the Jets’ defense, but he made some beautiful throws here.  Keenan Allen caught 16 passes for 145 of those passing yards.

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 35-31.  Derek Carr played Patrick Mahomes to a stand-off in this game; it was a tight and entertaining game from start to finish.  The final scoring drive of the game was vintage KC Chiefs.  With a minute-and-a-half to play, the Chiefs trailed by a field goal with the ball at their own 25 yardline and 1 timeout.  They proceeded to march down the field, score a TD and left about 30 seconds on the clock for the Raiders to play with.  An INT with about 10 seconds remaining on the clock gives you the final score.

The Rams beat the Bucs 27-24.    The Rams dominated on offense 413 yards to 251 yards; neither team ran the ball effectively with the Rams gaining a total of 42 yards and the Bucs only 37 yards.  Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp combined for 23 receptions for 275 yards in the game.

In NFL results from Thanksgiving Day, 41 is obviously the “Magic Number…

The Texans beat Lions 41-25.  Deshaun Watson picked the Lions’ defense apart all day long ; JJ Watt contributed a Pick-6; this game was not really in doubt much beyond the first quarter.  Both teams are now 4-7; in the AFC, that record is not nearly “playoff relevant”; in the NFC, that record is only “playoff relevant” in the NFC East – – but the Lions are in the NFC North. If any Lions’ fans continue to harbor playoff thoughts, there is probably a “support group” out there for you…

The WTFs beat the Cowboys 41– 16.  On one hand, the WTFs did not dominate the game to the extent the score might indicate.  On the other hand, if the Cowboys continue to call plays as stupidly as they did in this game, then the WTFs are indeed more than twice as good.  Consider these play choices by the Cowboys:

  • 4th and 1 at about the Cowboys 29.  Go for it?  OK.  It is only a yard and you have a running back that you are paying $90M over 6 years.  You will never get to find out if that $90M running back can get you that critical yard because someone decided to throw a pass that was incomplete.
  • 4th and long in your own territory and you decide to try a fake punt.  OK, maybe we can catch them by surprise.  It was not even close; the WTFs had TWO players on defense in position and ready to stop the fake punt for a loss of a yard.  No surprise at all…
  • 1st and goal at the 4 yardline with it still a one score game and the Cowboys trot out a reverse and fake pass by a WR to someone somewhere.  That play never had a chance and lost enough yards that it mandated a field goal try. On 4th down.

Mike McCarthy and Co. own this loss – – and they own it big time.

 

NFL Games:

 

There are no BYE Weeks; everyone gets to play this weekend – – even the Ravens and Steelers who were supposed to play last night but saw the game pushed back to Sunday afternoon due to COVID tests among the Ravens.

 

Las Vegas – 3 at Atlanta (52.5):  This game opened the week as a “pick ‘em” game but it did not stay at that line very long.  The Raiders and Derek Carr played well in a loss to the Chiefs last week; they are still in playoff contention, so they need to bring that level of play with them on the flight to Atlanta.  The Raiders’ pass defense is not very good, so it is not hard to imagine the Falcons moving the ball efficiently here.  I smell a shootout here where the loser is at or near 30 points; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Arizona – 1 at New England (49):  It will be interesting to see what sort of defensive ploy the Pats use to try to contain Kyler Murray.  Neither team can afford to lose this game in terms of their playoff aspirations.

Giants – 6 at Bengals (44):  Even though the Giants could wind up leading the NFC East (by a tie-breaker) at the end of this game, I still have to call it the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Ryan Finley was over-matched when he came in for Joe Burrow last week; did he get enough reps in practice to make it appear as if he belongs in a game at this level?  Here are his NFL stats:

  • 3 of 10 for 30 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

The Giants’ defense is improving; I think they can win this handily.

Cleveland – 7 at Jax (49):  Do not look now, but the Browns are 7-3 and have their eyes on a playoff slot in 2020.  The Jags are not any good; if the Browns avoid complacency and continue to run the ball as their primary offensive weapon, they will prevail here.

Carolina at Minnesota – 3 (52):  this game is a must-win for the Vikes if they want to play relevant games in last December/early January.  The Panthers are not going to the playoffs, but they have been playing hard for new coach Matt Ruhle.  The key to this game is the same key to every Vikes game:

  • How effective will Dalvin Cook be in the running game?

Tennessee at Indy – 3 (51.5):  I dub this game as the Game of the Week.  Both teams are 7-3 in the AFC South race but the Colts beat the Titans earlier this month so another win for the colts would give them the equivalent of a 1.5-game lead in the division with 5 games to play.  Both teams played well last week winning in OT.  This game may not be flashy, but it should be a really good one…

Chargers at Buffalo – 5 (53):  The Total Line opened at 50 points and has been climbing slowly all week.  Josh Allen versus Justin Herbert portends a lot of passing yards and a lot of big plays.  The game is important to the Bills and their playoff push; the Chargers are not going to the playoffs.  I checked weather.com because it is almost December and this game is in Buffalo.  The forecast for Sunday is 50 degrees with only a 10% chance of rain and 15 mph winds.  With that weather, I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Miami – 7 at Jets (44):  The Jets have played better in the last couple of weeks and the Dolphins threw in a real stinker last week against the Broncos.  I am not calling for the Jets to win their first game of the year here, but I want to note the Money Line odds on a Jets’ win are +260 this morning.  That is a lot lower than those Money Line odds have been for the Jets in quite a while…

New Orleans at Denver – 7 (46):  The Saints’ defense has been excellent of late and the Broncos’ offense has been nothing better than OK.  I don’t think the Broncos can score much more than 10 points here, so I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

SF at Rams – 6.5 (44.5):  It is a short week for the Rams, and this is a rivalry game.  Picking this game is like picking a coin toss…

KC – 3 at Tampa Bay (56):  I am sure some folks wonder how this cannot be the Game of the Week.  Well, the Chiefs lead in their division is secure and the Bucs are 1.5 games behind the Saints in their division; such is not the case with Tennessee/Indy.  The Bucs’ run defense is very good  (tops in the NFL), but their pass defense is not nearly as good yielding 237.5 yards per game.  A porous pass defense is not a good thing to bring to a game against Patrick Mahomes…

(Sun Nite) Chicago at Green Bay – 8.5 (45):  One sportsbook has this game at 10 points this morning, but all the other sportsbooks have the game at this level.  No, I cannot tell you why that is the case.  What we have here is a study in contrasts.

  • The Packers have a prolific offense that is ranked 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 30.8 points per game.  Meanwhile the Bears’ defense ranks 6th in the NFL allowing only 20.9 points per game.
  • The Packers have a defense that allows 25.8 points per game.  However, the Bears’ offense is a mess ranking 31st in the NFL scoring only 19.1 points per game.  [Aside: Only the Jets score fewer points per game than the Bears do; the Jets’ average is an embarrassing 14.9 points per game.]

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 4.5 (45):  Given the extent of the COVID-19 testing results on Ravens’ players, I have no idea who will be eligible to play and who will not.  Obviously, this game has more pragmatic meaning to the Ravens who arrive with a record of 6-4 and reside in 3rd place in the AFC North.  Yes, the Steelers will want to preserve their undefeated record – – but that is more of an emotional thing than a pragmatic thing.

(Mon Nite) Seattle – 5 at Philly (50):  Before you look at this game and think that it is a long journey for the Seahawks go get to Philly for the game, recall that the Seahawks went to Philly twice last year (once in the playoffs) and won both games by a score of 17-9.

So, let me review the Six-Pack for this week:

  • Kentucky/Florida OVER 60
  • Indiana – 12 over Maryland
  • Mississippi State/Ole Miss OVER 69
  • Raiders/Falcons OVER 52.5
  • Chargers/Bills OVER 53
  • Saints/Broncos UNDER 46

Finally, with Thanksgiving dinner in our recent memories, let me close with a quotation ascribed to Benjamin Disraeli regarding gratitude:

“I feel a very unusual sensation – if it is not indigestion, I think it must be gratitude.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

As Thanksgiving Day Approaches…

Today, the college basketball season begins.  There are 357 schools in Division 1 college basketball; even in a shortened season and even with games having to be cancelled, there will be a large number of college basketball games before the NCAA Tournament begins whenever and wherever it begins in what form.  We are not out of the woods here with regard to the pandemic, but the pharmaceutical industry – you know, those guys who are only out to make obscene profits at your expense – seem to be closing in on a way to make COVID-19 into a minor concern.  The season will have its fits and starts; teams will experience outbreaks and then more normal circumstances.  From my perch here in Curmudgeon Central, these are my three hopes for the season that begins today:

  1. All COVID-19 cases that befall players, coaches, officials and team staff are mild cases and leave no long-term deleterious effects.
  2. The NCAA exhibits foresight and flexibility when it comes to scheduling for its tournament because that flexibility will allow for schedule disruptions for teams to be more readily accommodated.
  3. The media covering college basketball refrain from nonsensical pieces such as “Bracketology” and “Mock NBA Drafts” until at least Valentine’s Day.

I will give genuine thanks if Number 1 above comes to pass.  I will be shocked and amazed if Number 2 happens and the NCAA acts like a rational adult.  As far as Number 3 is concerned, that will happen only after Sisyphus gets that rock securely to the top of that hill.

Tomorrow we will experience Thanksgiving Day Football.  There will be three NFL games and two college games on tap for tomorrow.  Long ago, there were plenty of college games on Thanksgiving Day and only one NFL game – the one in Detroit.  In fact, the first football game that I saw was on Thanksgiving Day in 1948.  My father took me to see Penn play Cornell at Franklin Field on the Penn campus; that was the traditional and final game of the season for both teams and it was always played at Franklin Field – – much the same as the Army/Navy game was and still is the traditional end to their football seasons.

Bob Molinaro of the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot has a view of Thanksgiving Day Football that is a bit less nostalgic than one might hope for:

No thanks: Grandma’s sweet potato casserole and collard greens haven’t given Thanksgiving Day revelers as much gas over the years as the Detroit Lions. Why must the NFL subject football-loving Americans to a Lions game — this year against the anemic Texans — each and every turkey day? Tradition? The only tradition worth recognizing here is the one that outlaws cruel and unusual punishment.”

Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times seems to be equally unimpressed by what he is likely to see from this year’s Thanksgiving Day Football:

“Tryptophan might not be the only thing putting you to sleep on Thanksgiving Day.

“The first two games in the NFL’s Turkey Day lineup? Texans (4-5) at Lions (2-7) and Washington (2-7) at Dallas (2-7).”

Unaccustomed as I am to the role of cheerfully seeing the best in meager situations, let me try to adjust the perceptions of Messrs. Molinaro and Perry toward a more positive direction.

First, after sitting through what ought to be a meaningless and miserable early game (Lions/Texans), the second one is a rivalry game that often – not always but often – delivers interesting results.  So, if you ignore the records for a moment and consider that this game has serious playoff implications – as I outlined in yesterday’s rant – and that it will likely be “energetically contested”, there is reason for interest in the Cowboys/WTFs game.

Second, the night game will certainly be interesting between the Steelers and the Ravens.  It has been a long time since a game between these two teams was meaningless and the rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens is deep and intense.  This year, the Steelers show up in Baltimore as the only undefeated team in the league; the Ravens have been in a tailspin for about a month and need to recover from that condition tout de suite to save their season.

And finally, there is genuine reason to give thanks for one aspect of the meaningless and miserable Lions/Texans game that starts the day of Thanksgiving Day Football:

  • There will be no fans allowed in the stands in Detroit on Thanksgiving for the Lions’ game.  That is something Detroit fans can be genuinely thankful for.

There are things that these 9 NFL teams and their fans ought to be thankful for as we get into the final stages of this 2020 season:

  1. Bills:  When Sean McDermott took over in 2017, the Bills had not been in the playoffs since 1999.  Looking at the standings now, it appears as if the Bills will be in the playoffs again this year making it two of three years under McDermott.
  2. Bears:  They have 4 excellent linebackers – – I think they are the best linebacking unit in the NFL.  Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn, Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathian keep the Bears in games despite the anemic offense in Chicago.
  3. Browns:  Nick Chubb is an excellent running back worthy of thanks, but I think the thing fans in Cleveland should give thanks for is Kevin Stefanski.  Finally, there seems to be adult supervision on the sidelines in Cleveland.
  4. Cards:  These fans should be thankful for Bill O’Brien who gave the Cards DeAndre Hopkins in exchange for a bag of beans.
  5. Chargers:  If Charger fans do not embrace Justin Herbert and give thanks that he was available when the Chargers turn to draft came around, they should turn in their credentials as NFL fans.
  6. Dolphins:  As with the Browns, fans in South Florida should give thanks for coach Brian Flores who has brought organization and discipline back to that franchise.
  7. Raiders:  They should be thankful for Derek Carr.  He has been physically beaten up in previous years and has taken many slings and arrows of outrageous fortune from Raiders’ fans too.  Derek Carr is the reason the Raiders are in playoff contention this year.
  8. Steelers:  Look at the way the Steelers played last year with Ben Roethlisberger on the shelf and compare to how the Steelers are playing now with him at the reins.  He may not be around all that much longer so fans in Pittsburgh need to give thanks for his 2020 season.
  9. Vikes:  Fans in Minnesota must give thanks for Dalvin Cook; he is the best running back in the NFL now.  I do not want to debate that issue.

Finally, as we approach Thanksgiving Day, let me close with this entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

Fear:  Anxiety or dread caused by the certainty that something terrible is about to happen such as when walking alone down a dark alley or heading home for Thanksgiving.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Coaches Musical Chairs…

Last week, I mentioned that South Carolina fired Will Muschamp and paid him $13M as a buyout to his contract.  And so, the annual game of Football Coaches Musical Chairs begins in earnest.  [Technically the music began right after the first week of the season when the coach at Southern Mississippi resigned, but now there is an opening at an SEC school and that means there are more coaches interested in marching around to the music now.]  Rumors have begun about who is interested in taking the job and who is not; rumors have begun about who South Carolina is interested in and who it is not; lots of rumors and few facts.

South Carolina is either a great place to coach or a career-killer depending on how you look at it.  For a young upcoming coach seen as a successful guy at a smaller program – – think PJ Fleck back in 2016 going from W. Michigan  to Minnesota – – South Carolina could be a career killer.  The Gamecocks get the pleasure of playing Clemson, Georgia and Florida every year; then the luck of the draw can get them one or more of Alabama, LSU, Auburn and/or Texas A&M in any given year.  It is not easy to win 10 games in a season with that kind of schedule.

On the other hand, the expectations at South Carolina are not unrealistic.  Fans and boosters there do not expect the Gamecocks to be in the CFP every other year; in fact, some of them might be orgasmic if South Carolina ever got into CFP consideration.

The job at South Carolina seems to me to be a job that is perfect for an established coach who needs a “comeback job”.  Three names of that ilk are floating around:

  1. Hugh Freeze was let go at Ole Miss after some pretty sleazy NCAA recruiting and personal conduct issues there; he is now at Liberty University cleaning up his reputation and may be ready to return to a bigger program.  Liberty is 8-1 this year and its only loss was by one point to NC State.
  2. Steve Sarkisian flamed out at USC  over “alcohol-related incidents” and he is now the OC at Alabama.  Spending time with Nick Saban has proven to be a cleanser for “troubled coaches” in the past – – think Lane Kiffin – – and perhaps Sarkissian is now “sufficiently presentable” to be a head coach once again.  Prior to the flame out at USC, Sarkissian had been successful in starting a major rebuilding of the football program at Washington.
  3. Bill O’Brien wore out his welcome with the Houston Texans where he was the coach and the GM.  However, O’Brien has won the Big-10 Coach of the Year and the “Bear” Bryant Coach of the Year Award in the past.  He may be unorthodox in his methods – and he certainly was a bad NFL GM – but might he or another defrocked NFL coach be interested in a college job at an SEC school?

Moving on…  With the passage of every weekend, the likelihood grows that the winner of the NFC East will have a losing record.  Here we are in Thanksgiving week and the division leader has 6 losses and 1 tie while the other three teams all have 7 losses.  All the teams have 6 games to play; do the math and you will see that the division winner needs to win either 4 or 5 of the remaining games to avoid a losing record for 2020.  Yes, these teams play one another over the next 6 weeks meaning one of them could rise up among these flawed teams and soar to a winning record – – if it can win an out-of-division game or two also.  And there is the rub; as of this morning, the NFC East teams are a combined 4-19-1 against teams not in the NFC East.

There is precedent for a division winner to have a losing record:

  • In 2010, the Seahawks finished the regular season at 7-9 and made the playoffs.  They hosted a wildcard game in the playoffs and won that game.
  • In 2014, the Panthers finished the regular season at 7-8-1 and made the playoffs.  They hosted a wildcard game in the playoffs and won that game.
  • The NFC East winner this year – whoever it is – will host a wildcard game in the playoffs and …
  • For the record, home teams’ combined record so far this year is 86-73-1.

Looking at the remaining schedules for the four teams:

  • Cowboys:  WTFs, at Ravens, at Bengals, Niners, Eagles, at Giants.  3 home games and 3 away games.  Combined record of opponents = 21-37-2.
  • Eagles:  Seahawks, at Packers, Saints, at Cards, at Cowboys, WTFs.  3 home games and 3 away games.  Combined record of opponents = 34-26-0.
  • Giants:  at Bengals, at Seahawks, Cards, Browns, at Ravens, Cowboys.  3 home games and 3 away games.  Combined record of opponents = 31-28-1.
  • WTFs:  at Cowboys, at Steelers, at Niners, Seahawks, Panthers, at Eagles.  2 home games and 4 away games.  Combined record of opponents = 31-28-1.

From this vantage point, the Cowboys would appear to be shoo-ins based on the current record of their opponents; the fly in that ointment is that they play division opponents 3 times and the Cowboys have the worst in-division record of all these flawed teams.  The return to health of Andy Dalton leads me to suggest that the Cowboys will win the NFC East at 7-9.

From this vantage point, the Eagles would appear to be doomed.  Perhaps they will be favored at home in the final game of the season against the WTFs, but they will be significant underdogs in their next 4 games.  The “good news” here is that the Eagles could finish the year 3-12-1 giving them a shot at a “Top 5” pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Finally, here is an entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

Hunting:  A sport that satisfies men’s innate desire to wear earflaps and a tartan jacket while freezing their testicles off by remaining largely motionless for several hours so that every so often they may get the chance to kill something.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Lots Of Little Stuff Today

The Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for 2021 was released about a week ago; there are 25 names on this year’s list.  Here is a link to that list and to the career stats for those 25 players.

I think voters this year will be challenged to come up with an induction class for 2021 that is “appropriate”.  I do not see many worthy candidates on this list, nor do I see any single player who deserves to have the stage to himself as the “one-and-only member of the class of 2021.”  There is precedent for an “Empty Year”; that happened in 2013; no one on the ballot then received the requisite 75% of the votes cast to make it into the Hall of Fame.

If I had a vote – which I most certainly do not – I would vote for these three nominees:

  1. Jeff Kent
  2. Curt Schilling
  3. Billy Wagner

I would listen with an open mind to someone advocating for these three players on the ballot:

  1. Tim Hudson
  2. Gary Sheffield
  3. Omar Vizquel

The results of the voting will be announced on January 26, 2021 so that leaves 9 weeks for debates/predictions/accusations and etc.…

I read last week that the TV ratings for The Masters tanked this year; the estimated number of viewers for the “Autumn-version” of The Masters was fewer than in any year since 1996.  I think there is a simple explanation here.  In US sports, the Fall belongs to football.  At its normal position in the sporting calendar, The Masters need only compete with the NFL Draft for attention and with the end of the NBA regular season and early season MLB for eyeballs on a TV set.  In 2021, the two weekend rounds of The Masters saw dozens of college football games televised by competing networks/channels on Saturday and a full slate of NFL games on Sunday.  Case closed…

When I become aware of a fashion trend or some sort of new social custom, it normally means that it is time for everyone to move on and find something new to obsess over.  What I am about to describe has probably been ongoing for a while, but I only noticed it consciously this weekend.  Several players in various football games – – college and NFL games – – wore eye black under their left eye only.

I reject the hypothesis that the players I saw in this fashion statement all suffer from a condition wherein they all need extra photons entering their right eyeball in order to have proper vision to play football. Hence my question:

  • What is the significance of eye black applied under the left eye only?

The Clemson/Florida State football game on Saturday was postponed at the last minute; the Clemson team and staff were already in Tallahassee when an issue arose.  One of the Clemson players who had traveled with the team to Florida tested positive on a Friday test whose results were reported on Saturday; that player had previously tested negative twice during the prior week.  This positive test result caused some anxiety at Florida State about playing the game and when the two camps could not agree on how to handle the matter, the game was postponed.

Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney, is not exactly a “COVID-denier” but he is also someone whose statements have made it clear that he thinks football is sufficiently essential to life that COVID needs to take a back seat to football games and practices and the like.  As you might expect, Swinney was not pleased by the postponement and had this to say on a conference call with reporters:

“If the standard to play was zero positive tests, then we would have never had a season.  This game was not canceled because of COVID. COVID was just an excuse to cancel the game. To be honest with you, I don’t think it has anything to do with their players. I have no doubt that their players wanted to play and would have played. Same with the coaches. To me, the Florida State administration forfeited the game.”

Just in case that statement does not convince you that Swinney is more than merely miffed at what went down over the weekend, he also said that if Florida State wants to find a date to make up the game from Saturday, Swinney said that as far as he is concerned, the Seminoles can come to Clemson to play the game or they can pay all of Clemson’s travel expenses to make another sojourn to Tallahassee.

Dwight Perry had this pertinent observation in his column in the Seattle Times last week:

“The No. 19 who made the biggest impact in pro-football history was:

  • Unitas
  • Alworth
  • COVID”

Finally, Bob Molinaro had this item in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot a couple of weeks ago:

Regular Joe: Football, like life, takes funny turns. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, already has one hand on the Rookie of the Year trophy, while the guy who beat him out at Ohio State is a missing person. Can we get a search party to find Dwayne Haskins?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 11/20/20

The sun has risen 7 times since the last Football Friday.  That astronomical sequence of events inexorably leads us to yet one more Football Friday and the first thing on the agenda as usual is to review last week’s Six-Pack.

  • College:  0-0-0
  • NFL:  2-4-0
  • Combined:  2-4-0

Those results lead to this set of season totals:

  • College:  9-13-1
  • NFL:  16-19-1
  • Combined:  25-32-2

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Tommy Tuberville was the head football coach at four schools (Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincy) over a 20-year period.  Earlier this month, he was elected to the US Senate by the voters in Alabama.  I have believed for years that football coaches and politicians are people who have a common skill that makes them successful:

  • Neither football coaches nor politicians are truthtellers.

Obviously, after being declared the winner in his senatorial election, Tuberville was interviewed.  Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times summarized perfectly the most important news nugget from that interview:

“Tommy Tuberville — the former Auburn football coach and newly elected senator from Alabama — rattled off the three branches of the federal government as ‘the House, the Senate and executive.’

“At least he didn’t say offense, defense and special teams.”

Last week, Notre Dame avoided a potential let-down game and beat BC 45-31.  Once again, the Irish rolled out a dominant running game gaining 285 yards on the ground.  Notre Dame still has UNC and Wake Forest on the schedule but last week’s game between those two teams does not indicate that either of them has a defense capable of stopping the Irish.

UNC beat Wake Forest 59-53.  The UNC “defense” held Wake Forest to a meager 606 yards of offense in the game while the Demon Deacons’ “defense” yielded 742 yards in the game.  That’s right, the two teams combined for 1348 yards of offense.  Tar Heels’ QB, Sam Howell posted this stat line for the game:

  • 32 of 45 for 550 yards with 6 TDs and 1 INT

To summarize the UNC/Wake Forest game in two words:

  • “Tackling Optional”.

NC State beat Florida St. 38-22.  The score was 28-3 halfway through the third quarter.  Two meaningless 4th quarter TDs by the Seminoles made this score seem a lot closer than the game was.

Nebraska beat Penn State 30-23.  This is the first time since 2001 that the Nittany Lions have opened a season at 0-4.  Penn State won the stat battle gaining 501 yards while only allowing 298 yards to the Huskers.  Penn State had two drives into the Red Zone in the final 5 minutes of the game but turned the ball over on downs both times.  Therein lies the reason for the result here.

Illinois came from behind to beat Rutgers 23-20.  Rutgers led 20-10 halfway through the 3rd quarter but could not hold on for a win.  The Illini ran the ball for 338 yards in the game.

Northwestern beat Purdue 27-20.  The Wildcats remain undefeated for the year at 4-0.  Purdue’s ground game was non-existent here gaining a total of 2 yards on 17 carries.

Indiana beat Michigan State 24-0.  The Spartans managed only 191 yards total offense for the game and only managed 9 first downs in the game.  Adding insult to injury, the Spartans turned the ball over  4 times.  Indiana WR, Ty Fryfogle, caught 10 passes for 200 yards and 2 TDs.  He gained more yardage than the entire Michigan State team did.

Wisconsin beat Michigan 49-11.  I think the jury has reached its verdict and that verdict is that Michigan is not a good football team.  The Wolverines only managed a total of 219 yards of total offense here and only 47 yards rushing on 19 carries.  The score at halftime was 28-0; there was no drama involved in this game.

Florida beat Arkansas 63-35.  Gators’ QB, Kyle Trask had his way with the Arkansas defense; here is his stat line:

  • 23 of 29 for 356 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs

Ole Miss beat S. Carolina 59-42.  This was another game where defense took a day off.  Ole Miss amassed 708 yards on offense; S. Carolina gained a meager 548 yards.  The Gamecocks dominated on the ground gaining 318 yards (8.2 yards per carry); normally that wins the game for you.  However, the Ole Miss passing game gained 513 yards (14.2 yards per attempt) and that trumped the S. Carolina run game.  South Carolina is now 2-5 for the season and in the aftermath of this loss – the third in a row – they fired head coach Will Muschamp and set about the task of hiring his replacement.

Kentucky beat Vandy 38-35.  That result is a lot closer than most folks thought it would be; Vandy is 0-6.  The Commodores’ four remaining opponents are Florida, Tennessee, Georgia and Mizzou. They will be serious underdogs to Florida and Georgia and probably a touchdown underdog to Tennessee and Mizzou; things are looking bleak for Vandy. The Kentucky running game was potent in that game gaining 308 yards on 34 carries (9.1 yards per carry).

Boise St. beat Colorado state 52-21.  This was a nice bounce-back game for the Broncos after being beaten badly two weeks ago by BYU.  Two of the Boise St. TDs came on blocked kicks in the first quarter – – one was a blocked punt the other a blocked field goal attempt.  Another Broncos’ TD came on a second blocked punt in the second quarter.  The special teams coach deserves the game ball here.

Cincy beat East Carolina 55-17.  This was another dominant performance by the Bearcats’ defense.  Cincy is 7-0 on the season and looks to be the best team in the so-called Group of 5 conferences.

 

College Games of Interest:

 

            If I have counted correctly, there are 16 college football games either cancelled or postponed this weekend.

Iowa – 2 at Penn St. (47):  Back when the season started, who saw the possibility that Penn State might open its season with 5 straight losses?  I certainly did not…

Cincy – 5.5 at UCF (63.5):  The Cincy defense has allowed an average of 12.4 points per game in the first 7 games of the 2020 season.  UCF’s defense allows 28.7 points per game.  On offense, both teams average just over 40 points per game.

Clemson – 35.5 at Florida State (63.5):  Trevor Lawrence has been cleared out COVID-19 protocol and is expected to start in this game.  The Seminoles’ defense ranks 101st in the country giving up 36.1 points per game.  This will be a rout but laying 5 TDs plus a hook is not going to happen here.  The more interesting possibility is that Clemson’s defense – – 12th in the country in total defense and 18th in the country in scoring defense – – might just shut down the Seminoles’ offense to the point where Florida St. does not get out of single digits.  In that scenario taking the UNDER here would make sense; I always try to make sense, so I’ll take the UNDER here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Missouri – 6.5 at South Carolina (57):  It might be interesting to see if interim coach Mike Bobo can change the fortunes of the Gamecocks in this game against a less-than-fearsome opponent.

Indiana at Ohio State – 21 (66):  Both teams arrive at the kickoff undefeated; the Hoosiers are ranked 10th in the country this week.  Nonetheless, Ohio State is a 3 TD favorite in this game.  I gave this one “Game of the Week” consideration.

Michigan – 10.5 at Rutgers (54.5):  Rutgers shocked Michigan State in the opening game back in late October but they have lost their last 3 games including a come-from-ahead loss to Illinois last week (see above).  Michigan opened the season with a big win over Minnesota, but they too have lost their last 3 games.  Michigan could not run the ball at all last week (see above) while Rutgers could not stop the run at all last week (see above).  Who knows what will happen here/

LSU – 1.5 at Arkansas (62.5):  Arkansas opened the week as a 1-point favorite over LSU.  I doubt many people saw that coming as the season got underway.  I am tempted to take this game to go OVER because the LSU defense is miserable giving up 33.6 points per game; it also ranks 112th in the country in total defense yielding 478.6 yards per game.  Chalk it up to a lack of willpower on my part; I will succumb to the temptation and take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Kentucky at Alabama – 29 (58.5):  The Wildcats’ defense has allowed only 21.3 points per game in their first 7 games.  It will be interesting to see how it fares against Alabama this week.  I think Alabama will score between 35 and 40 points.  The key here is the Alabama defense which has been scary good recently; if they shut down the Kentucky running game, they might hold the Wildcats to single digits.  I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Mississippi State at Georgia – 24 (44.5):  I know that the Mississippi State offense has sputtered ever since the opening game and that Georgia has an elite defense.  Having said that, I am stunned that the oddsmakers think the Georgia offense is worthy of being a 24-point favorite over another SEC team.  Very puzzling…

Wisconsin – 7 at Northwestern (44):  Here is a meeting between two undefeated teams in the Big-10 West.  Because these teams are in the same division of the Big-10, I gave this “Game of the Week” consideration.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma – 7 (59):  The Sooners are 4-2 in conference; the Cowboys are 4-1 in conference.  A loss for the Sooners probably eliminates them from consideration in the Big-12 conference championship game.  A win for the Cowboys points them toward that game because their two remaining opponents both have losing records.  Notwithstanding the two Big-10 games between undefeated teams, I think this one is the college Game of the Week.

K-State at Iowa State – 10.5 (46.5):  This matches the other two teams in the top 4 of the Big-12 conference as of this morning.

USC – 3 at Utah (57):  Here we are in mid-November and this is the first game of the year for Utah.

Washington State at Stanford – 3.5 (63):  I do not love Washington State by any means, but I cannot figure out why Stanford is favored here other than the game venue.  Stanford has not been a scoring machine and it has not shown a stout defense in losing both of its games for the season.  I like Wazzu to win the game outright; I’ll take them plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Boise State – 14 at Hawaii (57.5):  This is a long trip and a significant change in weather conditions for Boise St.

  • [Aside:  I notice now that I have already put 4 games in this week’s Six-Pack, and I know from glancing at NFL lines during the week that I like more than two “opportunities” there.  Ergo, this week’s “Six-Pack” is going to be numerically challenged.]

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Cleveland Browns find themselves with a 6-3 record this morning and they are in serious contention for a playoff spot in the AFC.  The last time the Browns made the playoffs was in 2002; they lost in the wildcard round then to the Steelers.  The last time the Browns won a playoff game was in 1994; they won in the wildcard round that year.  Here is why I find that bit of trivia interesting:

  • The Browns’ coach for that last playoff win was Bill Belichick.
  • The Browns’ victim in that last playoff win was the New England Patriots.

Several weeks ago, the Seahawks’ defense had the potential to break the record for most yards allowed per game in NFL history. (440.1 yards per game – – Saints – – 2012)  Last week, the Seahawks’ defense played better; last night the Seahawks’ defense played well holding the Cardinals to 314 yards of offense – – only 57 of those yards on the ground.  In addition, the defense scored a safety to boot.  Carlos Dunlap was acquired in a trade with the Bengals a couple of weeks ago and he played very well last night registering 2 sacks.

I do not know if it was GM John Schneider or coach Pete Carroll or someone else in the organization that identified the need on defense and then matched Dunlop’s skills to that need. Whoever was the one to make that connection deserves a lot of praise from Seahawks’ fans this morning.

In last week’s action, the Bucs beat the Panthers 46-23.  The scoreboard operator had to be on his toes all the time here.  Teddy Bridgewater had to leave the game with a knee injury and the Bucs’ defense clamped down allowing only 20 yards net offense for the second half.  The Bucs produced 500 yards on offense; this game was never really in doubt.

The Browns beat the Texans 10-7.  The scoreboard operator could have been on Quaaludes for much of this game and no one would have noticed.  Field conditions and weather conditions were bleak; winds gusted to 52 mph during the game according to weather.com.  Nick Chubb returned to action for the Browns and averaged 6.6 yards per carry for the day.  Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined to carry the ball 38 times for 230 yards.

The Steelers beat the Bengals 36-10.  The Bengals could not run the ball consistently in the game and put the entire offensive responsibility on Joe Burrow to try to play catch-up.  That might work against a bad defense or a mediocre defense that is having a bad day; it did not work against the Steelers’ defense at all.  The Steelers did not run well gaining only 44 yards for the day – – but Ben Roethlisberger showed why he will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days by throwing for 333 yards and 4 TDs and controlling the game with short passes.

The Packers beat the Jags 24-20.  Before you conclude that the close score of this game at Lambeau Field indicates that Jake Luton has announced his presence in the NFL and everyone needs to take notice, look a bit deeper into the stats.  The Jags got a TD on a 90-yard punt return and got 10 points off two turnovers that gave the Jags a short field.  [The TD “drive” after one turnover was all of 16 yards.]  Total offense for the Jags was only 260 yards.

The Giants beat the Eagles 27-17.  The Eagles’ defense took the day off; the Giants arrived with a sputtering offense – – to put it mildly – – and that Eagles’ defense proceeded to give up almost 6 yards per play.  The Eagles’ offense was no great shakes here either; they were 0 for 9 on 3rd down conversions.  Daniel Jones led the Giants in rushing for the game.

The Lions beat the WTFs 30-27.  The Lions led this game 24-3 and tried their darndest to give it away.  Conventional wisdom around DC is that the WTFs’ defensive front is the strength of the team and the piece around which they will rebuild the franchise.  Of the 7 guys up front on defense, there are 5 first round picks.  Now here is a bit of harsh reality regarding that defensive front 7:

  • Rank 21st in the NFL in run defense allowing 126 yards per game
  • Allowed the Lions 105 yards on the ground – – Lions rank 25thin the NFL in rushing offense.

But it gets worse …  Last week, the WTFs tied the score at 27 all with 16 seconds to play in the game; they had all the momentum going into what simply had to be OT.  Here is the sequence of plays in the final 16 seconds of that game by that defense:

  1. Kickoff goes out of the end zone – – ball on the Lions’ 25 – – 16 seconds left
  2. Lions complete a 10-yard pass – – receiver runs out of bounds – – 12 seconds left
  3. Long pass is incomplete – – 6 seconds left – – EXCEPT one of those first round picks on the DL, Chase Young, roughs the passer – – ball placed at the 50 yardline.  [Aside:  Coach Ron Rivera tried to protect his rookie DE saying that the WTFs’ QB had been hit harder than that with no call made earlier in the game.  Fact is that Young took two full steps after the ball was out of Matthew Stafford’s hand before decking the QB.  It was a correct call by the officials, and it was a Meathead of the Week sort of play.]
  4. Lions complete a 9-yard pass – – 3 seconds left – – Time out Lions
  5. Matt Prater kicks a 59-yard field goal to win the game as the clock expires.

Only Wile E. Coyote could have ended the game in a more inept and frustrating fashion.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 23-16.  The Rams were efficient and effective on offense but not explosive.  They did not need to be here because the Rams’ defense played very well.  They did not allow Russell Wilson to throw a TD pass sacked him 6 times and intercepted 2 passes.  The Seahawks have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and have dropped to third place in the NFC West.  [Update:  Their win last night over the Cards puts them back atop the NFC West pending the outcome of the Rams/Bucs game on Monday night.]

The Cards beat the Bills 32-30.  Surely you have seen the replay of the Hall Mary pass that won the game for the Cards. Even without that play, this was an entertaining game to watch.  Two interceptions by the Cards in the second half kept the Bills within reach.  The Cards ran the ball for 217 yards in the game on 35 carries (6.2 yards per try).

The Dolphins beat the Chargers 29-21.  Yes, it was another one-possession loss for the Chargers – – but at least they did not lose after having a huge lead and squandering it.  Call that progress?  The Dolphins took the lead early by blocking a punt by the Chargers after their opening series went 3-and-out and then recovering the blocked punt at the Chargers’ 1-yardline.  Neither offense guided by highly regarded rookie QBs did much business here.  The Dolphins’ total offense was 280 yards; the Chargers’ total offense was 273 yards.

The Raiders beat the Broncos 37-12.  The Raiders intercepted 4 passes in the game including one where the Broncos had the ball inside the Raiders’ 5 yardline.  For good measure, they also recovered a Broncos’ fumble while their offense did not turn the ball over at all in the game.  The Raiders controlled the tempo and the game with a running attack that amassed 203 yards on 41 carries.

The Saints beat the Niners 27-13.  The differential here is 2 TDs.  The Niners fumbled away 2 punts in the game both recovered by the Saints and both led to touchdowns.  Ka-beesh?  The Saints’ offense was hampered by the absence of Drew Brees who left the game with a rib/chest injury and did not play at all in the second half.  Turns out that Brees has multiple broken ribs and a punctured lung.  He is listed as week-to-week; I suspect he will be out for a while.  As of this morning, the Saints have a half-game lead over the Bucs in the NFC South.  It is never a good time to have your first string QB out of action; but if there is a silver lining for Saints’ fans here, it lies in the remaining Saint’s schedule and the records – as of this morning – of the teams on that schedule:

  • Falcons  3-6-0
  • Broncos 3-6-0
  • Falcons  3-6-0
  • Eagles  3-5-1
  • Chiefs  8-1-0
  • Vikes  4-5-0
  • Panthers  3-7-0

The game against the Chiefs is clearly the toughest one left on the schedule and it is one month from today on December 20th.  If Drew Brees is really “week-to-week” he might be available for that one…

The Pats beat the Ravens 23-17.  The Pats only managed 135 yards passing in the game, but the air attack did produce 2 TD passes both caught by Rex Burkhead. Normally, that level of performance would indicate a loss.  However, that effort was bolstered by a running game that gained 173 yards on 39 carries.  That is not spectacular by any means – – but it was enough to keep the chains moving.  The Pats had 25 first downs to only 19 for the Ravens.  The Ravens are now 6-3 which puts them 3 games behind the Steelers in the AFC North plus the Steelers own the tie breaker as of now having beaten the Ravens earlier this year.

The Vikes beat the Bears 19-13 in one of the uglier NFL games of the year.  Kirk Cousins finally won a game on Monday night and Nick Foles had to be carted off the field in the final minute of the game with what is described as a “hip/leg injury’.  The Bears’ offense is non-existent; their only TD came on a 104-yard kickoff return to start the second half.  They could not run the ball (41 yards on 17 tries) and their passing game was nothing but check down stuff (31 pass attempts produced 124 yards).  The Bears’ defense is for real; it held Dalvin Cook in check (30 carries for 96 yards) and produced 2 turnovers in the game.  The Bears’ defense is like a single Mom with a deadbeat Dad…

The Bears have their BYE Week this week.  There is no official word on whether Foles can be back for next week’s encounter with the Packers.  Stay tuned…

 

NFL Games:

 

Four teams have a BYE Week this week:

  1. Bears:  They will spend the week figuring out which of the three QBs on the roster is the least worst so they can put him out there next week to throw the offense into neutral.
  2. Bills:  They get a whole week to keep the taste of that Hail Mary pass in their mouths.
  3. Giants:  They get to revel in the glory of their 2-game winning streak – – something no other NFC East team has accomplished this season.
  4. Niners:  In addition to getting time to heal, the Niners should try to figure out why they are 1-4 at home while going 3-2 on the road.

There are plenty of games on the card for this weekend that have significant playoff implications; last night’s Cards/Seahawks game was merely an appetizer.

Philly at Cleveland – 2.5 (47):  The Browns are 6-3 for the season.  In their 3 losses they have scored a total of 19 points (6.3 points per game).  In their 6 wins, they have scored a total of 197 points (32.7 points per game). Call theirs the Night and Day Offense…  The Eagles’ offense is far more predictable; it is never very good.  Sometimes, Carson Wentz & Co. are “mediocre” and on other days they are merely Meh!  The Browns are in the playoff hunt; the Eagles lead the pathetic NFC East for now.  Truth be told, this miserable game has playoff implications.

Atlanta at New Orleans – 3.5 (50):  The spread here opened at 7 points; that was before the extent of Drew Brees’ injury was known so the drop is explainable to something other than a flood of “Falcons’ money”.  Jameis Winston will be at QB for the Saints; if he avoids his bugbear – the INT – the Saints could control this game.  The Falcons have won 2 in a row; the Saints have won 6 in a row.  I think the Falcons are catching the Saints at the right time; the Falcons will have their offensive weapons healthy and in action; the Saints will have to adapt to Jameis Winston in place of Drew Brees – – and those two guys are very different QBs.  I like the Falcons plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Detroit at Carolina – 3 (47):  Teddy Bridgewater had to leave last week’s game with a right leg injury; he is questionable for this game.  If he cannot play, the next man up for the Panthers is PJ Walker or Will Grier.  Walker’s last playing experience was in the XFL last Spring; Grier was the Panthers’ third-round pick out of West Virginia last Spring.  On the other sideline, Matthew Stafford injured his throwing hand in last week’s win over the WTFs, but he finished that game and is expected to play here. (Chase Daniel would take over if Stafford could not go.)  This is one of the games this week with no playoff implications.  And – – until you know which QB will be playing for both teams, making a pick or a wager is akin to playing the lottery.

New England – 1 at Houston (49):  Watch out; the Pats are on a 2-game winning streak; they are not yet looming in the playoff hunt, but Bill Belichick’s teams tend to get better as the calendar turns to late November and December.  On the other side of the field, the Texans are toast; they are 2-7-0 and sit 4 full games behind both the Colts and the Titans in the AFC South.  I think the Pats will run the ball very effectively here; I’ll take the Pats to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Pittsburgh – 10.5 at Jax (47):  The Steelers have yet to lose a game; the Jags are 1-8-0.  Last week, the Jags won the turnover battle and scored on a long punt return – – and still lost the game (see above).  If the Steelers do not sleepwalk through this one, they should win it easily.  Nevertheless, I will avoid that spread of two scores plus a hook.  Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel had an interesting take on this game:

“With the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers getting ready for a game against the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin wanted to make it clear to the media that, ‘We are not a Big Ten team playing a MAC opponent this week.’ He’s right about that. The Steelers are an SEC team playing a MAC opponent.”

Green Bay at Indy – 2.5 (51):  This spread opened with the Packers as a 2-point favorite.  Lots of playoff importance here; the Colts are tied with the Titans for the lead in the AFC South; the Packers are comfortably in the lead in the NFC North and they are tied with the Saints for the #1 seed in the playoffs as of now.  The Packers had to rally to beat the Jags last week; I think they were looking ahead to this game and almost got beat.  The Colts’ defense is clearly the better defense here; the Packers’ QB is clearly the better QB here.  Therein lies the key to this game.  Here is Fun Fact:

  • The Packers have never beaten the Colts in Indy.

Cincy at Washington – 1 (47):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week and I do not want to see any finger-pointing by fans of the WTFs toward the Jets/Chargers game lower on the card.  These teams arrive with a combined record of 4-13-1; they both stink.  Alex Smith gives the WTFs a patina of competence as their QB; he is surrounded on offense by mediocrity save for Terry McLaurin who has emerged as a good WR.  The Bengals have a budding young QB who is leading the team in a positive direction – – but he too has little help around him.  I will certainly get this game in the early afternoon time slot here in the DC area; count your blessings if your CBS affiliate opts for something else.

Tennessee at Baltimore – 5 (49.5):  Lots of playoff hopes are in play here.  The Titans “trail” the Colts on the basis of a tie-breaker this morning; the Ravens are 3 games behind the Steelers and have the same 6-3 record as 5 other teams in the AFC so they are chasing a wildcard slot.  The Ravens’ offense has been missing any sort of flow or rhythm or continuity for the past several weeks; the Titans’ defense has been missing any sort of lockdown capability for all of 2020 giving up an average of 398.1 yards per game.  If that does not allow the Ravens’ offense to jumpstart, then there is serious trouble in Charm City.  Derrick Henry will surely test the Ravens’ run defense which is giving up 4.5 yards per carry to date.

Dallas at Minnesota – 7 (48):  The Vikes have won three games in a row – each of them over a divisional opponent; that does not have them squarely in the playoff race yet, but their schedule is “friendly”.  They have two tough games against the Saints and the Bucs (both on the road), but the other 4 games are definitely winnable.  That is why this week’s game is important to the Vikes’ playoff hopes down the road.  The Cowboys had a BYE Week last week and they got good news when they learned that Andy Dalton had cleared the concussion protocol.  Dalvin Cook has been spectacular this year; Ezekiel Elliott has not.  If Cook can have what for him is an average game, that will expose the Cowboys’ secondary to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and I do not see that secondary being able to withstand that.  I like the Vikes at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun Nite) KC – 7.5 at Las Vegas (57):   Andy Reid coached teams are 18-3 coming off a BYE Week; the Chiefs had last week off.  This should be a high-scoring event.  The Raiders inflicted the only loss on the Chiefs’ record this year so maybe there is a “revenge factor” at work here?  Look for the Raiders to run effectively on the Chiefs’ defense and look for the Chiefs’ to move the ball through the air on the Raiders’ secondary which does not get a lot of help from the Raiders’ pass rushers who have registered only 11 sacks in 9 games this year.  Both teams are serious playoff contenders in the AFC.  I call this the Game of the Week.

Miami – 3.5 at Denver (45):  The Dolphins have realistic playoff aspirations; the Broncos – – not so much.  The Dolphins have shown that they can win high scoring games and they can win defensive games.  The Dolphins play and practice at sea level – almost literally – so the altitude will be a challenge for them.  Nonetheless, I like their defense and I have been impressed by Tua’s poise at QB over the last several games.  I like the Dolphins to win and cover even on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Jets at Chargers – 9.5 (46):  I know; this is not a good game.  Break out the Jim Mora rant about “Playoffs?” and you can have some fun with this one.  The Chargers are 2-7-0 but their point differential is only minus-19 points.  The Jets are 0-9 with a point differential of minus-147 points.  The Jets had a BYE Week last week, but they will still be without Sam Darnold at QB – – meaning another week of Joe Flacco dinking and dunking to a mediocre corps of pass catchers.

(Mon Nite) Rams at Bucs – 4 (48):  Plenty of playoff implications here…  A win for the Rams will tie them with the Seahawks for the lead in the NFC West; a win for the Bucs coupled with a loss by the Saints – would leave those teams tied in the NFC South.  Here is another game to be decided by defense.  Both teams can play explosive offense and both teams can have their offenses throttled down.  Which defense throttles down the opposing offense here will determine the winner.

So, let me review this week’s bloated Six-Pack (8 entries):

  1. Alabama/Kentucky UNDER 58.5
  2. LSU/Arkansas OVER 63
  3. Clemson/Florida State UNDER 63.5
  4. Washington St. +3.5 against Stanford
  5. Patriots – 1 over Texans
  6. Dolphins – 3.5 over Broncos
  7. Vikes – 7 over Cowboys
  8. Falcons +3.5 against Saints

Finally, Dwight Perry had this item in the Seattle Times recently:

“A Thoroughbred named Belichick won the $400,000 Breeders Stakes, the final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto.

“In keeping with the theme, Belichick’s jockey wore sleeveless silks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………