The Sports Curmudgeon

I want to spend today considering “media overreaction”.  There seems to be an inability to take an event and look at it analytically/dispassionately and then report on its meaning and its place in the gestalt of the moment.  Rather than treating many events in that manner, the more likely path for the story to follow is to report it; blow it out of proportion and then move on to the next “breaking news”.

Here in Curmudgeon Central, we deal with sports; therefore, I will refrain today from any remarks about all the “breaking news” that comes to us on those cable channels that try to represent themselves as “news outlets” when, in fact, they spend most of their time creating and pushing a narrative of their own and then reporting on events in a way to fit their chosen narrative. Today I just want to focus on a singular instance of a sports event and its overblown coverage.

The event took place just after the Washington WTFs beat the Eagles in Week 17 of the NFL season and Chase Young “pranced” off the field shouting that he wanted Tom Brady and that he was coming for Tom Brady – – referring to the playoff game that was to take place the following week.  Far too many sports outlets took that event and ran with it – – in a variety of directions.

• Direction #1:  This is a brash young man who does not know what he is getting himself into by calling out “The GOAT”.  Be careful what you wish for, young man…
• Direction #2:  This is a demonstration of his leadership qualities; it is why he was named as a team captain in his first year; we should lump him in with historical figures such as General Patton in terms of leadership qualities…
• Direction #3:  This is what you expect from a great player – – parentheses Chase Young is a great player – – and he is following in the footsteps of great defensive players in the past on his way to glory…

Just maybe, the more accurate “direction” for this story to have taken would have been that this is a 21-year-old young man who is exuberant and who realized in that moment that he and his team had made the playoffs and he knew that he would face the Bucs and Tom Brady the next week.   And what he did on his way to the locker room was not a momentous event; it was the venting of his exuberance – be it rational or irrational exuberance.  (Hat Tip to Alan Greenspan)

Frankly, I think all three of those storyline vectors above are flawed in some way but #3 is either wishful thinking on the part of the commentators or idolatry on their part.  Having seen Chase Young play in most of his NFL games, let me offer a dispassionate assessment of his position in the hierarchy of great NFL defensive players past and present:

• First, it is too early to know if he belongs in the pantheon of great defensive players.  Having said that, he is awfully good, and he gives great effort on every play.  I doubt that there is any team in the league that would not be happy to have him on its roster for 2021 and subsequent years.
• Now, I have heard his name put in the same context and even in the same sentence with Ray Lewis and Reggie White.  And that is where I get off this train.  Perhaps about a decade into the future, Chase Young will have earned his place in that sort of conversation, but to put him there now is premature idolatry on the part of the person(s) making the comparison.

Let us take a quick peek at the stats…

• As a 21-year-old rookie, Chase Young played in 15 regular season games.  He had 7.5 sacks, 32 solo tackles, 12 assisted tackles and 12 QB Hits.
• He also played in that one playoff game he was so exuberant about.  In that game he was much closer to a “non-factor” than he was to an NFL legend; he had 1 solo tackle and 2 assisted tackles and was on the field for 65 defensive plays.
• That’s all there is…

So far, Chase Young is not remotely in the class of the best of the elite defensive players in NFL history such as Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Dick Butkus, Mean Joe Greene and/or Deacon Jones.  Any continuation of this sort of idolatry runs the risk of labeling Young as a “guy who never reached his potential” which would be unfortunate because he did show enough to indicate that he will be a very good NFL defensive player at the very least.

The same thing goes for great leadership skills.  Skipping off the field one time and “calling out Tom Brady” one time does not put him in the same class with Ray Lewis, Sam Mills, London Fletcher or Brian Urlacher.  Give this guy some time and some room to do something that exhibits REAL leadership before anointing him as a great leader.

A former colleague of mine often made this distinction between management and leadership; he said:

“Managers do things right; leaders do the right things.”

I do not think that is a perfect distinction/delineation, but it is part of the essence of leadership along with a dose of an ability to inspire others to perform at maximum level.  Chase Young played well in 2021; as I said, he would be welcome on all 32 NFL rosters.  But other than a lot of hopping around and rah-rah demonstrations and photobombing others, I did not see anything that suggested – –  “Ray Lewis”.

Finally, Albert Einstein – someone who was and still is idolized to some degree by a segment of the population – had this to say about idolatry:

“Everyone should be respected as an individual, but no one idolized.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Tommy Lasorda died over the weekend at the age of 93.  He was originally signed by the Phillies as a minor league player but then released.  The then-Brooklyn Dodgers picked him up in the late 1940s and he spent the rest of his life with the Dodgers’ organization save for one year when he was sold or traded 3 times and wound up back with the Dodgers.  From there he became their coach or manager from 1973 to 1996.  After retiring from baseball, he became a de facto ambassador for the sport itself.

Rest in peace, Tommy Lasorda.

Even though that introductory note is somewhat dispiriting, let me stick to the topic of baseball this morning.  MLB has been on hiatus for two-and-a-half months since the end of the World Series in October.  In “normal times” we would be about a month away from “pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training” and there would have already been a lot of trades and free agent signings on the books by now.  That is not nearly the case in January 2021; there have been two “significant” trades and a free agent signing or two, but much of the expected news from the “Hot Stove League” has been silent.

The “party line” for the 2021 MLB season is that it will start on April 1^st and will run for a full 162 games.  That pronouncement was made last July even before the truncated 2020 season began.  A lot has happened since then and we have – presumably – learned a thing or two about “staging sporting events in a pandemic” since then.  There has been talk of delaying the start of the season until May and playing only 120 – 140 games for the regular season.  Naturally, the players’ union opposes that proposal so there is still some uncertainty as to when the season will begin and how long it will run.

[Aside:  I swear that the MLBPA would oppose a cancer cure if the MLB owners “invented” it and the MLB owners would do the same if the situation were reversed.]

Allow me to toss another coal into the “Hot Stove” here and cite an item from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot recently:

“Waiting game: Major League Baseball is taking its time deciding whether the National League will use the designated hitter this season, making it difficult for teams to know whom to acquire. It’s as if Commissioner Rob Manfred is begging for more bad publicity.”

In that backdrop of uncertainty, there have been two offseason trades labeled as “blockbusters”, one other trade that could be interesting in retrospective and a lot of hemming-and-hawing on the free agent market:

• “Blockbuster” #1:  This move is actually two moves that were made so close in time that they appear to have been part of a grand scheme.  The San Diego Padres acquired Blake Snell from the Rays and Yu Darvish from the Cubs in about 24 hours.  The Padres sent 4 prospects to the Rays for Snell and four more prospects to the Cubs for Darvish.  [Aside:  The Padres also signed a highly sought-after Korean infielder, Ha-Seong Kim.]  It would appear that the Padres are taking aim at the Dodgers’ hegemony in the NL West.  Interestingly, these moves might make it seem as if other teams in the NL West are far off the pace.  If that is the case, might that lead the Rockies to want to trade Nolan Arenado?  Now, that would produce a “blockbuster” swap…
• “Blockbuster” #2:  The Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians for two minor leaguers and two young players who have been OK for the Mets at the major-league level but nothing more than that.  It is hard for me to think that this is much more than a salary dump by the Indians because the talent levels of the players involved are not nearly in balance.
• Potentially interesting trade:  The Nats acquired Josh Bell from the Pirates.  Bell had a disappointing season – to say the least – in 2020 but he made the All-Star team in 2019 and he is only 28 years old.  To acquire Bell, the Nats gave up two minor league pitchers.  Is Bell an “All-Star caliber player” or was 2019 a mirage?  Could be interesting…

There are more than a hundred free agents out there who remain unsigned.  Some of them will fade into oblivion as their careers come to an end, but there are plenty of valuable assets out there on the market – – and we are theoretically only a month away from the start of Spring Training.  I will list here only a dozen that I think should be interesting to more than a few teams:

1. Trevor Bauer – Starting pitcher
2. Jackie Bradly Jr. – Outfielder
3. Alex Colome – Reliever
4. Didi Gregorius – Shortstop
5. DJ LaMehieu – Second baseman
6. Jake Odorizzi – Starting pitcher
7. Marcel Ozuna – Outfielder
8. JT Realmuto – Catcher
9. George Springer – Outfielder
10. Marcus Stroman – Starting pitcher
11. Masahiro Tanaka – Starting Pitcher
12. Justin Turner – Third baseman

We are fast approaching the time when Scott Boras will emerge from wherever he spends his time to announce that the lack of offers in the free agent marketplace – – particularly the lack of offers to his clients – – is proof positive of owner collusion. If history is a guide, he will offer hearsay evidence at best to support his collusion theories and the baseball writers will report them lending various levels of credulity to them.  And then they will evaporate until late next January…

Finally, let me close today with a note from longtime Dodgers’ infielder, Steve Garvey, about Tommy Lasorda:

“Lasorda’s standard reply when some new kid would ask directions to the whirlpool was to tell him to stick his foot in the toilet and flush it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There are 15 finalists (as players) for the Pro Football Hall of Fame who will be presented to the Selection Committee just before this year’s Super Bowl game.  The HoF bylaws limit induction classes to between four and eight.  Here is the entire list; the ones in Bold are the ones I would vote for:

1. Jared Allen – – Defensive end
2. Ronde Barber – – Cornerback/safety
3. Tony Boselli – – Offensive tackle
4. LeRoy Butler – – Safety
5. Alan Faneca – – Offensive guard
6. Tory Holt – – Wide receiver
7. Calvin Johnson – – Wide receiver
8. John Lynch – – Safety
9. Peyton Manning – – QB
10. Clay Matthews, Jr. – – Linebacker
11. Sam Mills – – Linebacker
12. Richard Seymour – – Defensive tackle/end
13. Zach Thomas – – Linebacker
14. Reggie Wayne – – Wide receiver
15. Charles Woodson – – Cornerback/safety

Another NFL related item floating around in the world ether recently is that the league is seriously considering expanding to a 17-game regular season next year.  Evidently, that possibility came about the last time the league and the NFLPA negotiated over the existing CBA; I must admit that I missed that point at the time – – or maybe my memory is approaching advanced age.  In any event, the motivation for such a move is transparent; the owners did not make a lot of money in 2020 thanks to COVID-19.  I doubt that any of the owners will be qualifying for food stamps any time soon, but the reduced revenues combined with expanded costs likely put some teams in the red for 2020; adding a regular season game adds another weekend of television programming which will immediately increase revenue.  I doubt that anyone is “playing a long game” here; I think this is purely about revenue.

At the same time – – and probably as a tip of the cap to player health and safety – – the story is that the NFL would cut the Exhibition Season from four games to two games.  While this might decrease revenues a tad, the TV revenue from a 17^th regular season game would surely offset that reduction several times over.  Fans must applaud that “trade off”; an extra game that means something in exchange for two meaningless games.

The other schedule adjustment for next year might be shifting the Super Bowl from the first Sunday in February to the second Sunday in February.  There could be a social problem with that move.

• When February begins on a Saturday – as it happens to do this year – the second Sunday of February would be February 14^th.
• Super Bowl Sunday will coincide with Valentine’s Day.
• My long-suffering wife and I have been married for almost 55 years.  Valentine’s Day is not nearly as big a deal for us now as compared to 55 years ago.
• Such may not be the case for more than a few younger folks where such an overlap of “important days” might cause significant relationship strain.

In the world of MLB, the White Sox new manager, Tony LaRussa pleaded down his DUI arrest to a charge of reckless driving.  He served 1-day of house arrest, paid a fine of $1400 and will do 20 hours of community service as punishment for the incident.  Once the case was resolved, LaRussa’s lawyer said that his client “did not have a drinking problem.”  I am not qualified to diagnose people who “have a drinking problem” but I would note that this is LaRussa’s second DUI arrest over a period of more than 10 years.  Some folks may think that is an “issue”; others may think that is “problem”; tomato; tomahto.

Another baseball happenstance involving “blood analysis” is that Mets’ infielder, Robinson Cano will be suspended for the entire 2021 season for testing positive for a PED (stanozolol).  This is Cano’s second positive test; the first was in 2018.  The fact of a second positive test is the reason behind the full-season suspension – and his forfeiture of his $24M salary for 2021.  [Aside: I do not know if his suspension is for a season or for 162 games.  That issue might be important if the 2021 MLB season is truncated somewhere below the normal 162 games.]

Cano’s contract runs through the end of the 2023 season at $24M per year.  At some point, he will return to the Mets and create a decision for them to make.  Assuming that Spring Training for the 2022 season begins at the normal time in 2022, Cano will report to the team at age 39.  He has been with the Mets for 2 seasons – – 2020 was a truncated season – – and his combined stats for those two years covers 156 games for him.  That is awfully close to a single season of participation.  His combined stats for those 156 games with the Mets, Cano had a batting average of .275 and an OBP of .321.  He hit 23 home runs, scored 69 runs and drove in 69 runs.  Those stats covered years when he was 36 and 37 years old…

By the way, if those are the stats that came along with PED use, Cano might consider asking his pharmacist for a rebate…

Finally, having mentioned Tony LaRussa’s interactions with alcohol above, let me close with this comment from poet, Dylan Thomas:

“An alcoholic is someone you don’t like who drinks as much as you do.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

It would appear as if six NFL teams will be looking for a new coach for next season.  I say “it would appear as if” because there might be a seventh team in the coaching market if negative player reaction to the Eagles’ embarrassing “strategic decisions” from last Sunday nights persists and grows.  But for now, here are the potential buyers in the coaching market:

1. Chargers
2. Falcons
3. Jaguars
4. Jets
5. Lions
6. Texans

An interesting way to look at this “marketplace” is to examine the jobseekers.  There are three categories of coaching candidates this year as is the case every year:

1. Former NFL head coaches who have been fired from previous jobs and who have rehabilitated their résumés in some fashion.
2. Current assistant coaches/coordinators whose current teams excel in the phase of the game under control of the candidate.
3. “Hot” college coaches eager to step up to the pro level.

One of the former NFL coaches whose name has been floated about in this coaching cycle is Jim Caldwell.  Should he land a job this time around, he will make NFL history.  Caldwell was the coach of the Detroit Lions from 2014 through 2017.  Here is the historic mark he could make if he gets a job with any of the 6 teams in the market:

• Since the merger of the NFL and the AFL in 1970, no head coach fired by the Detroit Lions has ever gotten another head coaching job in the NFL.

The Lions and their head coaches for the last 50 years have been a mess.  At the time of the merger, Joe Schmidt was the coach; he left in 1972 and in his 6-year tenure, the Lions won more games than they lost.  Since 1972 here are the Detroit Lions head coaches who have posted a winning record:

• Gary Moeller:  His record was 4-3 after taking over the job in mid-season in 2000.
• Jim Caldwell:  His record was 36-28 in his 4-year tenure.

That’s the list, folks.

The current assistant coaches/coordinators are a list of the “usual suspects”.  Their names have been on the grapevine all season long.  The closest thing to a “surprise entry” on the list is Joe Brady.  He has been an assistant in the NFL for only 1 year after a spectacular season as the offensive coordinator at LSU when the Tigers won the CFP championship.  Brady is only 31 years old; if he gets a job in this cycle, it would be a rapid ascension up the ladder of the coaching profession.

The “hot college coach” for this year is actually a “hot former college coach” who has been on TV for the last two years – – Urban Meyer.  Rumor has it that the Jaguars and the Chargers have Meyer on their radar and that Meyer’s agent is seeking a multi-year deal worth $12M per year plus incentives.  Urban Meyer has been a winner – – a big winner – – in all of his collegiate jobs; that is the reason his agent could make such contractual demands with a straight face – – if in fact the rumors are true, and the agent actually did that.  Here are a couple of significant differences between a college head coaching job and an NFL head coaching job that would give me pause before I hired a college coach to a “multi-year deal at $12M per”:

• College coaches get to pick the players they want.  Coaches go and schmooze parents and players to get top shelf talent; coaches who can do that successfully about 15 times a year are pretty much assured of success.  Not so in the NFL; a coach may covet a player and the Draft will assign that player to another team; the coach is powerless to “change the player’s mind”.
• There is no salary cap in college football.
• In college, the coach has imperial power.  For example, if he does not want players or assistant coaches to give interviews, he can make that rule and enforce it with suspensions and/or playing time.  In the NFL, the CBA requires players to be available to the press; a coach who does not like that will have to submit to that rule.  His “powers” are limited by higher authority.

None of this is to say that Urban Meyer – – or any other “hot” collegiate coach – – cannot adapt to the NFL situation very quickly.  Matt Rhule made the necessary adaptations with the Panthers this season, but Rhule is not getting $12M per year.

Instead of pontificating as to which team should select which coaching candidate, I think the more interesting mental exercise is to look at the jobs and think about which job is the best one for the jobseekers to chase.  If you believe that the only road to success in the NFL is to have a bona fide franchise QB in hand, then the Jags and Chargers rush to the top of the list.  The Jags have the first pick in next year’s draft and Trevor Lawrence looks to me to be the best QB to come out of college since Andrew Luck in 2012.  Meanwhile, the Chargers have Justin Herbert under contract and his rookie year makes it clear that he is a franchise QB.

If you believe that the best way to turn a team’s fortunes around is to radically change the roster, then the Jets and the Jags become most interesting.  Both teams have 2 first round picks this year and both teams have more than $80M in salary cap room.  That means a roster shuffling is more than possible.  Comparing the Jags and Jets on this dimension brings up an interesting economic difference:

• Success in the NY/NJ area brings the opportunity for added endorsements and celebrity status.  Success in the NY area also means paying State income tax in either NY or NJ in the 9-10% range.  For a player making $5M a year, that means giving the State authorities $500K per year.
• Success in Jacksonville does not assure endorsements nor celebrity status nearly to the degree that success does in NY/NJ.  However, the state income tax in Florida is ZERO.

As Samuel L. Jackson is wont to say on the Capital One ads:

“What’s in your wallet?”

Finally, since I mentioned taxes on wealthy young men who play football in the NFL, let me close with this observation from Oscar Wilde:

“Rich bachelors should be heavily taxed.  It is not fair that some men should be happier than others.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Until the controversy engendered by the Eagles/WTFs game on Sunday Night Football changed my plans, today’s rant was supposed to have been yesterday’s.  Over the weekend, I thought I would look back at 2020 – – clearly a year that will live in infamy – – to find a few positive sporting events to take the edge off the image of 2020.  Then I wanted to look ahead to 2021 and identify what I hoped might happen in 2021 to return to “sports normalcy”.  Here is what I came up with for 2020 in hindsight:

1. In 2020, the CFP produced a great championship game.  Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence went head-to-head and put on a show.
2. Andy Reid and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, and that victory removed the one stain on Reid’s coaching career.  I believe he is a great football coach and now he should be a Hall of Fame football coach.
3. The LA Dodgers broke a longstanding World Series drought.  Dodgers’ fans have had many World series disappointments; the team was 6-17 in world Series appearances until the Dodgers beat the Rays in 6 games in October.
4. David Ayres was an employee of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  He was a goalie for the team in practices; he drove the Zamboni; he maintained lots of the team infrastructure.  He also served as the team’s “house goalie” and he had to suit up for the Carolina Hurricanes when they needed an emergency goalie.  Ayres played for the Hurricanes and beat the Maple Leafs – – his employer – – in the game.  That is screenplay material.
5. Alex Smith made it back to the field as an NFL QB after almost losing his life and/or his leg during myriad surgeries to repair his broken leg.
6. In baseball, Daniel Bard made it back to MLB after being out of the game since 2013.  Bard suffered a loss of control and that usually means a pitcher is finished with baseball.  Bard somehow found a way to regain his control and record 6 saves for the Colorado Rockies.

If things go well in 2021, sports may return to a semblance of  its regular self and rhythm.  Here is what I hope to see in 2021:

1. I hope to see sports events with a full complement of fans in the stands or in the arenas.  Crowd noise is a whole lot better than “piped-in crowd noise”.
2. I hope to see March Madness – – even if it needs to be played in April or even May.
3. I hope the Olympics happen in Tokyo this summer.  I have no particular affection for the Olympic Games themselves, but the athletes who will participate have been training for most of their lives to participate.  Organizers have said that if the Games do not happen in 2021, they will be canceled and not postponed for another year, so I hope they take place as scheduled for the sake of the athletes.
4. I hope to be able to go and see a minor league baseball game on a warm summer evening later this year.
5. I hope the NFL learns from the 2020 season that its future seasons can be considered complete without staging any more Pro Bowl Games.

Bob Molinaro had this comment recently in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Futurewatch: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence may be relieved that the Jags jumped the line on the Jets for the No. 1 draft pick, but how is the sport helped when the top quarterback prospect plays in an NFL backwater?”

My response to that is to say that the only way to avoid having “top prospects” at any position play in an NFL backwater is to avoid putting teams in backwaters.  If the NFL were to decide tomorrow to expand from 32 teams to 36 teams and to put all 4 of the expansion franchises in the US of A, they should pay heed to the “desirability” of the locale for the new teams as much as to the willingness of a prospective owner of the new team to pay the exorbitant franchise fee.

What makes for an NFL “backwater”?  Too often folks equate market size with the desirability of a franchise venue.  That measure is true at the extremely high end of the scale; franchises in NY, LA, Chicago etc. are generally desirable based on the sheer number of fans in the area.  However, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are desirable based on their history of professional football.  Cincy is a successful franchise based on history too; it was Paul Brown who left Cleveland and started his own team in Cincy.

There is more to having a successful/desirable NFL franchise than market size.  One of the hidden factors, I believe, is the fundamental sports interest of the region where the franchise is to be located.  Take the northeast US plus the “snow belt” of the upper mid-west.  I count 11 or 12 NFL teams in that region and the only ones that may or may not be thought of as “backwaters” would be Detroit and Buffalo.  [Aside: I think Detroit is one; I do not think Buffalo is, but others might.]  Here is my theory as to why that is the case:

• In that region, MLB is a dominant sport and has been for a long time.  NFL football grew up there as “something to do when there is no more MLB”.  Families could still attend pro sports events when MLB had shut down for the year.  Having been in that situation for 50-80 years, the NFL franchises there are now also important local foundation pieces.

Now look at the region of the southeastern US – – whare Jax is located.  There are 8 NFL teams located there.  Washington and New Orleans are successful and desirable franchises – – if one ignores the ownership of the WTFs.  The other franchises are successful, but none are the pillar of their city.  My reason:

• College football is the king in the southeastern US and not NFL football.  And, unlike the situation in the northeast where MLB is dominant, college football and NFL football overlap in their seasons.  Jax hosts the Georgia/Florida game every year; it is a bigger event by a mile than any Jags’ game has been.  Jax is a city in a college football dominated region with merely an NFL franchise.

The problem is not that Trevor Lawrence will be toiling for a while in a backwater; the problem is that the NFL put a team in a backwater and has failed to recognize that and make it right.

Finally, I said above that I looked forward to attending a minor league baseball game this summer; and of course, I would partake of a hot dog while in attendance.  So, let me offer this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Hot Dog:  The toenails, lips and eyebrows of various animals served on a bun.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I had a totally different rant planned for today; then, Sunday Night Football happened.  Resetting the stage, the WTFs make the playoffs with a win; the Giants make the playoffs if the Eagles win.  It is the final game of the year and it means nothing to the Eagles so giving some of their starters the day off and playing some “prospects” is to be expected.  And then, Sunday Night Football happened.

Let me make two things clear:

1. I have no inside information here – – and I have no intention to do any investigative work to uncover any.
2. I cannot read minds.

Having said all that, I am not certain that the Eagles played that game to win the game.  Moreover, given the commentary from Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth, I suspect that they too wonder why various decisions/ploys took place in that game.  I am not suggesting that the Eagles “took a dive” in the game but I would not like to have to defend what happened in that game from the point of view of logic and reason.

The Giants’ fans are understandably disappointed in the results from last night; many of them have Twitter accounts; the fallout from those two premises is pretty easy to imagine.  So, let me say that some of the gall and ire expressed on Twitter might be directed at the Giants’ themselves because all they would have had to do to get into the playoffs in 2020 is to win more than 6 regular season games.  Fans can and should be disappointed in the season’s outcome.

There were 3 “strategic” decisions by the Eagles that still have me shaking my head this morning:

1. Leading 14-10 with 1:52 left to play in the first half, the Eagles got the ball at their own 26 yardline.  The Eagles run offense had been solid – if not eye-popping – and the WTFs had all 3 timeouts left.  Logic calls for a running play on first down; that would require the WTFs to spend a timeout if they anticipate getting the ball back in a reasonable field position.  The Eagles threw the ball 3 times; they gained 0 yards and punted the ball back to the WTFs having consumed 15 seconds off the clock and causing the WTFs to spend none of their timeouts.
2. With about 2 minutes left in the third quarter, the Eagles trailed 17-14 and had the ball at the WTFs’ 4-yardline; it was 4^th and goal.  Eschewing a field goal to tie the game, the Eagles tried a pass play that failed, and they turned the ball over on downs.
3. Starting with the Eagles’ first possession in the 4^th quarter – it is still a one-score game – the Eagles insert Nate Sudfeld into the game at QB.  Granted the Eagles braintrust could never have foreseen that he would throw an INT and lose a fumble on his first two possessions, but what was he doing in that game under those circumstances in the first place.

[Aside:  Nate Sudfeld’s stats were 5 of 12 for 32 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT plus a lost fumble.  Oh, by the way, he took two sacks too.  He has been a clipboard holder since being drafted in 2016, but last night in the 4^th quarter of a meaningful game, it was imperative that he get some “evaluation time”?]

After the game, Pedersen asserted that he had been coaching to win and that Sudfeld deserved to play that 4^th quarter of the game because he had “been here 4 years”.  Excuse me, but the fact that he has been with the Eagles for 4 years and had seen the field in all of 3 games and had thrown 2 passes in his career tells me that when you were coaching to win in those previous years, you felt it was best for him to be somewhere other than on the field.

The folks at NBC were mystified too.  Michaels and Collinsworth almost asked aloud what the Hell was Doug Pedersen thinking/doing in the second half of that game.  The NBC stat mavens came up with – – and displayed on screen – – the Eagles’ outcome with a win or a loss in the game.  If the Eagles had won, they would have the 9^th overall draft pick next April; now that they have lost, they will have the 6^th overall pick in that draft.  I do not ever recall that sort of information being presented to the audience in a game unless it involved the overall #1 pick.  To me, it seems as if the people doing the game were sufficiently gobsmacked by what they saw unfolding that they felt the need to come up with some sort of explanation.

Cris Collinsworth is noted for his candor on the air.  His candor is probably the reason why almost every NFL fanbase thinks that he absolutely hates their team.  Without ever using the word “tanking”, he said several times that he did not understand what the Eagles were doing and/or why they were doing it until finally he said – – this is probably a paraphrase because I do not have the game recorded and cannot go back and listen to get his exact wording:

“I could not do what the Eagles did tonight.”

From a logical standpoint, I have no answers for what happened in last night’s game.  Doug Pedersen says he was “coaching to win”; I cannot refute that with facts just as I cannot find a lot of facts that support that assertion.  My impression is that the Eagles played out the string which would have been understandable and unremarkable had the WTFs been leading the game by 2 TDs in the second half.  But once it became a winnable game late in the third quarter, the Eagles owed it to their fans – – and to NFL football fans of every stripe – – to make strategic decisions that more obviously align with trying to win the game.

Cue Herm Edwards here…

Finally, Dwight Perry had this comment on the New Year celebration in NYC and how it related to the NFL:

“Thanks to COVID-19, this Dec. 31 in Times Square will mark the first time in 113 years that there won’t be any New Yorkers on hand to witness a ball getting dropped.

“In other words, no different than a Jets home game in 2020.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Sports Curmudgeon  12/31/20

 

In another calendar anomaly, Football Friday will take place on a Thursday this week.  Never let it be said that flexibility is absent here in Curmudgeon Central.  As is customary, I shall begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack:

• College:  0-0-0
• NFL:  2-2-1
• Combined:  2-2-1

In addition, the 4-team Money Line parlay went astray when the Browns lost to the Jets.

That brings the embarrassing season totals to:

• College:  17-22-1
• NFL:  26-32-2
• Combined:  43-54-3
• Money Line parlays:  0-1

A bit of foreshadowing – – this week’s Six-Pack will be the most crowded one of all.  I have a lot of selections for you here.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

I know that the Heisman Trophy used to be a “running backs’ award” and that it has morphed into a “quarterbacks’ award” over the last couple of decades.  Nevertheless, I want to suggest here that the best college football player in the country in 2020 – – at least of the ones I saw with my own two eyes – – was Alabama WR, DeVonta Smith.  Opposing defenses sought to double cover him and he beat the double coverage by running past both defenders trying to contain him.

Going into the season, Smith was considered to be Alabama’s #2 WR; Jaylen Waddle was the consensus pick as their #1 guy on the outside.  Waddle suffered a season ending injury and Smith merely took over to the point where the Bama faithful  never had any regrets.  I do not have a Heisman vote, but DeVonta Smith would get mine if I did.

Four Heisman finalists have been named.  Smith will be the only non-quarterback under consideration.  The other finalists are:

• Mac Jones  QB  Alabama
• Trevor Lawrence  QB  Clemson
• Kyle Trask  QB  Florida

For anyone who follows these rants, it will come as no surprise that I routinely downplay half of the major football conferences in the US and at least 25% of all the Division 1-A teams in the country in any given year.  The gap in talent and coaching from the top-shelf of college football even only down to the middle levels of the good conferences is chasm-like.  That observation got me to thinking about Power 5 teams perennially at the top of their conferences and teams perennially at the bottom.

1. Atlantic Coast Conference:  Clemson has been dominant in the ACC for quite a while now; most years, the teams from Miami and UNC are contenders.  The doormats of the ACC are probably Duke and Syracuse.
2. Big-10:  Ohio State has been the dominant team here for quite a while.  Occasionally Penn State or Michigan State or Michigan can give them a moment’s pause, but the Buckeyes rule this conference.  The doormat here has been Rutgers – – but that may be changing.  Another doormat used to be Minnesota – – and that appears to be changing.  Another doormat used to be Indiana – – but that appears to be changing.  So, I guess for now, the Big-10 doormat is Illinois.
3. Big-12:  Oklahoma is the boss of this conference.  Once in a while they get a tussle from Oklahoma State or Texas; this year Iowa State was a good opponent; but the sooners are in charge in the heartland.  The doormat for the league is easy; it must be Kansas.  Over the last 11 seasons, Kansas has never won more than 3 games in a single year and the Jayhawks’ cumulative record for those 11 seasons is 21-108.
4. PAC-12:  Washington, Oregon and USC are probably the most consistently good teams in the conference.  It is a toss-up for me whether Cal or Arizona is the most over-matched team in the conference.  Cal – like Vanderbilt in the SEC – has academic constraints that make consistent competition impossible so I guess I would say that Arizona is the real doormat here.
5. Southeastern Conference:  Most years you can pretty much pencil in Alabama, Georgia, Florida and LSU as contenders.  Vanderbilt is probably the league’s most reliable doormat, but Arkansas has been less than formidable in recent years.

 

College Games of Interest:

 

(12/31/20)  Ball State vs. San Jose State – 10 (65.5):  Ball State was a surprise winner in the MAC tournament.  San Jose State wins on defense allowing only 17.9 points per game.  I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

(12/31/20)  West Virginia – 7 vs Army (41):  Army lives and dies running the football.  In 11 games this year, the team has only attempted 70 passes and completed on 31 of those pass attempts.  Cumulatively, the team has thrown 4 TD passes and 5 INTs.  The reason I am harpoon on this is that West Virginia’s rushing defense is more than just “pretty good”; it ranks 24^th in the country (out of 127 teams playing Division 1-A football this year).  I like the Mountaineers to win and cover here in a low-scoring game; put it in the Six-Pack.

(1/1/21)  Cincy vs. Georgia – 6.5 (51.5):  I have touted Cincy – and particularly its defense – all season long.  They are the best team that I saw from the so-called Group of Five conferences and I do not doubt that they are significantly better than a couple dozen teams from the Power Five conferences.  However, Georgia is not one of those teams.  Georgia was offensively challenged until they made a QB switch late in the season; since putting sophomore QB, JT Daniels under center, the Bulldogs have averaged 42 points per game.  Add to that the fact that the Georgia defense is clearly the best defense that Cincy has faced all season long.  Cincy will play with a chip on its shoulder, but I do not think that will be enough; give me Georgia to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

(1/1/21)  Notre Dame vs. Alabama – 20 (65.5): That 20-point spread is the largest spread in the history of the CFP – – not that the CFP goes back for half a century of anything like that.  The game has a couple of interesting matchups:

1. The Irish offensive line has 4 starters that many folks have tabbed for NFL careers.  If Notre Dame  QB, Ian Book, gets time to throw comfortably, the Alabama pass defense can be exploited (see Florida game and Ole Miss game as examples).
2. Alabama sets up its explosive passing attack by forcing teams to defend the run particularly by Najee Harris.  However, the Irish run defense ranks 15^th in the country.

Notre Dame is tempting as an underdog getting almost 3 full TDs – – but I shall resist that temptation and watch the game purely for its enjoyment value.

(1/1/21)  Ohio State vs. Clemson – 7.5 (66.5):  Ohio State won all 6 of its games this year; they had some COVID-cancellations.  The “problem” is that they did not beat any top-shelf teams this year.  In the Big-10 the teams that are normally the “Big Dogs” – – Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin – – played like puppies.  So, is Ohio State a powerhouse in 2020?  I have no idea.  I do know that Clemson is beatable this season – – because they lost a game.  This is a game to watch and enjoy.  I will not make a selection here.

(1/2/21)  Texas A&M – 7 vs. UNC (65):  I think the Aggies are the better team here even if the Tar Heels were going to be a full offensive strength.  However, UNC will be without their leading rusher and their leading receiver for the game.  I would take UNC plus the points if those players had not “opted-out” for the game.  Under the circumstances, I think UNC is taking on a better opponent with one arm tied behind its back; give me the Aggies to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

When the NFL expanded the playoffs to include a 7^th team from each conference this year – – largely to take in some more revenue as a COVID-19 offset – – there were worries that a .500 team or even worse might make the playoffs as a wildcard team.  Little did we know that the NFC East champion would be 7-9 at best.  At the same time, I thought every 10-6 team would be a shoo-in let along a team that finished at 11-5.  I was wrong on that one too.

In the AFC, there are 3 wildcard slots.  Going into the final week of play, five teams in the AFC bring 10-5 records to the kickoff

• Miami
• Baltimore
• Cleveland
• Tennessee
• Indy

The Tennessee/Indy pairing will resolve itself as one of the two will be the AFC South champions.  That leaves 4 other AFC teams at 10-5 this morning and only 3 wild card slots for them to occupy.  It is possible if all 5 of these teams win this weekend – none of them play any of the others – a team with an 11-5 record will be sitting at home watching the playoffs on TV.

In the NFC, the East will be decided over there in a side show; there is no possibility for any wild card relevance.  For the three NFC wildcard slots, one is guaranteed to be taken by the Bucs who have a 10-5 record.  The other two spots will be divvied up among

• Chicago at 8-7
• LA Rams at 9-6
• Arizona at 8-7

All 16 NFL games happen on Sunday this week and the early games tend to be ones that are either irrelevant or only marginally relevant.  However, before any of the pre-game shows begin and before any of the color analysts offer up their “Keys to the Game”, let me get something off my chest.  There is a new buzz-phrase in NFL-speak and it is annoying because it is inaccurate.

• Football pundits like to sound “in the know” when they tell fans that it is important for a team’s defense to “get off the field on third down”.
• What is wrong with plain English?  What the team’s defense needs to do is to “hold the opponent short of the first down marker” or to “prevent a first down” or to “force a punt”.
• Here is what is wrong with “get off the field on third down”  A defense can do that every time simply by allowing the offense to score a touchdown; it gets them off the field without question.

In last week’s action, on Friday (Christmas Day), the Saints beat the Vikes 52-33.  Alvin Kamara ran for 6 TDs in the game; the two teams combined for 947 yards of offense; the Saints had the ball for almost 37 minutes and the Saints were never forced to punt.  The loss eliminated the Vikes from playoff contention and the 52 points allowed by the Vikes was the most any Vikes’ team had allowed since 1963.  By the way, the 1963 Vikes were still “an expansion team” having come into the NFL only 2 years before that.

On Saturday, there was a triple-header of NFL games.  The Bucs beat the Lions 47-7.  Here is all you need to know about that game:

• With the score 40-0 in the 3^rd quarter, the Lions returned a punt for a TD “narrowing the score”.  The returner was flagged for taunting on the play forcing the Lions to kick off from the 20 yardline on the next play.
• Cue Bugs Bunny:  “What a maroon! “

The Niners beat the Cards 20-12.  The loss does not eliminate the Cards from the playoffs, but it does mean that they need some help; if the Bears win their final game this week, they will be in the playoffs ahead of the Cards based on tiebreakers even if the Cards beat the Rams this weekend.  The Niners had to go to their #3 QB for the game; CJ Beathard responded by throwing 3 TD passes and RB, Jeff Wilson, ran for 183 yards on 22 carries.  Wilson was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2018 having played college football for North Texas.

The Dolphins beat the Raiders 26-25.  The Raiders took the lead at 25-23 on a field goal with19 seconds left in the game; the Dolphins won the game on a field goal with 1 second left in the game.  Ryan Fitzpatrick came off the bench in the 4^th quarter to lead the Dolphins to the win.  Tua Tagovailoa had a dreary performance here.  He completed 17 passes for all of 94 yards.  This loss – the fifth in the last six games – eliminated the Raiders from the playoffs in 2020.

The Chiefs beat the Falcons 17-14.  The Falcons led late in the game – – not by two or more scores but they did have the lead on the scoreboard.  And then they lost.  What’s new?  The Chiefs hardly looked dominant here – – but teams have not needed to be dominant to beat the Falcons so far in 2020.  Here is what Dwight Perry had to say in the Seattle Times about this game:

“Speaking of Christmas, the big man in red looks poised to deliver yet another belated holiday gift for Chiefs fans.

“But enough about Andy Reid.”

The Jets beat the Browns 23-16.  Break up the Jets; that makes it two wins in a row for the Guys in Green.  The Jets’ defense somehow held the Browns’ running game to 45 yards on 18 carries.  The loss leaves the Browns with a record of 10-5 but without a guaranteed slot in the AFC playoffs.  Are the Jets’ players trying to save Adam Gase’s job?

The Bengals beat the Texans 37-31.  Brandon Allen started at QB for the Bengals and played the best game of his short NFL career.  He threw for 371 yards and 2 TDs; the Bengals added to that performance with a running game that contributed 169 yards to the winning effort.  This was a shootout, and you might have expected the Texans and Deshaun Watson to have been more successful in that sort of game – – but it was the Bengals won the day.

The Ravens beat the Giants 27-13.  This game was not nearly as close as the scoreboard might indicate.  The Giants trailed 14-0 at the end of the first quarter based largely on the fact that the Giants ran a total of 3 offensive plays in the first quarter.  For the day, the Ravens recorded 6 sacks.  The Ravens look like a team that is peaking around playoff time – – but they need to win next week to assure that they are part of those playoffs.

The Steelers beat the Colts 28-24.  The Colts led 24-7 with about 3 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter; then they had a meltdown.  From that point on, the Colts did almost nothing right on either offense or defense.  Meanwhile, the Steelers’ offense that had been in hibernation for about a month regained consciousness and scored the final 21 points in the game.

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37-17.  This was a must-win game for both teams and the Eagles ran out to a 14-3 lead in the first half; then reality struck.

The Panthers beat the WTFs 20-13.  Dwayne Haskins – playing QB for the WTFs despite the drama he brought to the team over the previous week – was awful in this game.  He lost a fumble, threw 2 INTs and averaged only 5.5 yards per pass attempt.  Taylor Heinicke replaced Haskins in the second half and rallied the team to a late 4^th quarter TD – – but it was not enough.  The WTFs defense held the Panthers to 280 yards of offense but could not overcome 4 turnovers 3 by the offense and 1 by the punt return team.

On Monday, the WTFs released Dwayne Haskins; he has a fully guaranteed $4.3M coming to him over the next several years so do not feel too sorry for him.  That money is addition to the approximately $10M he got as a signing bonus.   Maybe he will use some of that money to hire a life coach who can instill in him something called “deferred gratification” or perhaps “work ethic”.  If not, his NFL career is about over.

Haskins is – by my count – the 4^th QB that Danny Boy Snyder has imposed on coaches for his team since buying it in 1999.  They would be – chronologically –

1. Jeff George – – 2000
2. Patrick Ramsey – – 2002
3. RG3 – – 2012
4. Dwayne Haskins – – 2019

Ladies and gentlemen, that would be the superfecta of futility.

The Seahawks beat the Rams 20-9.  The win gives the Seahawks the NFC West title and a guaranteed home game in the playoffs.  The injury to the thumb of Rams’ QB, Jared Goff may be the most important thing to come out of this game; without him, the Rams are not nearly the same level of threat in the playoffs as they would be with him at QB.

John Wolford is the backup QB on the Rams’ depth chart.  Wolford has never thrown an NFL pass before. In fact, his only professional football experience was back in 2019 when he was the starting quarterback for the Arizona Hotshots of the AAF. When the AAF went belly-up, he signed with the Rams. Prior to his time in the AAF, he signed with the Jets as an undrafted free agent out of Wake Forest; the Jets cut him out of training camp.  So, the bottom line for this weekend is that the Rams’ playoff hopes are going to ride on the shoulders of a guy who was unable to make it to the Jets’ practice squad.  But wait, there are reports that the Rams may be signing – – wait for it – – Blake Bortles this week.  If that signing happens, Dwayne Haskins’ agent will need to sit Mr. Haskins down for what in diplomatic circles is known as a “frank and candid exchange” about Mr. Haskins’ perception around the league.

Here is the Rams’ playoff picture as I understand it:

• Rams are IN the playoffs with a win over the Cards this weekend
• Rams are IN the playoffs with a loss to the Cards AND a loss by the Bears.
• Rams are OUT of the playoffs with a loss to the Cards AND a win by the Bears.

Speaking of the Bears, they beat the Jags 41-17 last weekend.  That makes it 4 weeks in a row that the Bears have scored 30 or more points in a game.  The Bears are guaranteed a playoff slot if they beat the Packers in Chicago this week – – not an easy task.  Mitchell Trubisky was 24 of 35 for 265 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT for the game.  He also ran for another TD.  With this loss – – and the Jets’ surprising win, – – the Jags have locked up the overall #1 pick in next year’s draft; the Jags are “on the clock” for the 2021 NFL Draft and it is not yet 2021.  The Jags have lost 14 games in a row since beating the Colts in Week 1; they will close out the season with a rematch against those Colts this week.

The Packers beat the Titans 40-14 in a snow bowl game in Green Bay.  You would have thought that the weather elements would favor the Titans and their power running game – – but that advantage went to the Packers from the start.  The Titans’ defense has been a weak spot all year long and was again in this game.  The Packers rolled up 234 yards on the ground and another 214 yards in the air. The Titans closed the score to 19-14 early in the third quarter and then surrendered 21 unanswered points to turn the game into a rout.

The Bills beat the Pats 38-9.  This game was as big a domination as the score indicates.  Yes, the Pats were missing two of their best defensive backs for the game; nonetheless, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs sliced and diced the Pats’ defense all night long.  The Pats simply cannot throw the football effectively.  Cam Newton was 5 of 10 for 34 yards and got himself placed on the bench; Jarrett Stidham “came to the rescue” and was 4 of 11 for 44 yards – – if you can call that a “rescue”.  The Bills recorded 31 first downs; the Pats managed only 11.

The Pats’ offensive situation is dire.  The Pats rank 29^th overall in the NFL in total offense; to give you an idea of what that means, the only teams with less offensive output this year are the WTFs, the Giants and the Jets.  The problem is not the running game; the Pats are 5^th in the NFL in rushing; they gain over 145 yards per game on the ground – – and that is in spite of the fact that defenses load up to stop the run against them.  The Pats’ problem is the absence of a competent passing game and the failure of their passing game is not nearly a single-point failure.

• Using pass receptions by a tight end, the Pats have zero tight ends in the Top 50
• Using pass yardage by a tight end, the Pats have 1 tight end ranked 48^th in the NFL and he has been on IR for six weeks this season.
• Using pass receptions by a WR, the Pats have zero WRs in the Top 50
• Using pass yardage by a WR, the Pats have 1 WR ranked 46^th in the NFL.
• Conclusion #1:  The Pats have a paucity of talent at the position that catches passes in the NFL in 2020.

Ranking QBs is an inexact science to be sure.  I am not a fan of QBR, but it does give you relative groupings of quarterbacks in the league.  For example, using QBR as the yardstick, the top 5 QBs for this year are Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen.  The range of QBRs for this group of five QBs goes from 117.8 to 105.1.  Most observers would agree that for the 2020 season, all five of those QBs were playing very well.  So, using that measure, where do the Pats’ QBs rank?

• Cam Newton’s rating is 71.1 and he ranks 24^th in the league.
• Jarrett Stidham’s rating is 23.6 and he ranks 44^th in the league
• Neither Brian Hoyer nor Jake Dolegala (practice squad) have enough stats to be rated.
• Conclusion #2:  The Pats are suffering from a lack of skill at the QB position for the first time in about 2 decades.

Yes, the QBs would be more proficient if they had Pro bowl caliber pass catchers to throw to; and yes, the pass catchers would have more catches and yardage gained if they had someone akin to Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to them.  Notwithstanding that interesting but irrelevant bit of imagination the problem facing the Pats is they need to fix a sizeable portion of the team all at one time.  That is not an easy task.

Cam Newton has never been a pin-point passer even when he was the NFL MVP.  With the trivial amount of separation achieved by this receiving corps, his lack of precision becomes a ticket to failure.  Even with his dismal performances in the past several games, Bill Belichick has stuck with him as the starter; conventional wisdom would have it that Jarrett Stidham should be getting a baptism of fire so that the team can recognize what – if any – contribution he can make to the team in the coming years.  His meager playing time suggests to me:

• Bill Belichick has already decided that Jarrett Stidham is not the “QB of the Future” for the Patriots so long as he is the coach.

[Aside:  Yes, I know; I am engaging in mind-reading here and I have no skills in that discipline.  But that is my conclusion…]

For years, the Pats had clearly the best QB in their division and had the luxury of tinkering with exotic frills regarding their roster and their game planning.  Not anymore.  Right now, the Pats’ QB crew is the worst assemblage of talent in the AFC East – and that includes the downtrodden NY Jets who are not going to acquire Trevor Lawrence in this year’s draft.  Coaching is important, but players win games – – and it may be a while until the Pats can assemble the mix of players to win games consistently again.

 

NFL Games:

 

Take a deep breath for a moment.  Barring a cataclysmic event between now and Sunday night, the NFL will have gotten in all 256 of its regular season games within the time span of the schedule they produced back in the summer.  Yes, they had to juggle a few things around, and we got to see NFL action on Tuesday night and on Friday night this year and on Saturday.  Only Wednesdays never saw a pair of NFL teams tee it up.

I wonder what the Las Vegas odds were on the NFL schedule starting on time and finishing on time back in August 2020… 

Jax at Indy – 14 (50):  The Jags are 1-0 against the Colts in 2020 and they are 0-14 against the rest of the NFL.  Does that give them confidence in their ability to win this game?  Or does that circumstance piss off the Colts and make it such that they go out with the intention of humiliating a bad Jags’ team?  The Colts are one of the 10-5 AFC teams looking for a playoff spot, so the game is important to them.  Their only avenue to the playoffs is for a win here and then some help in other games involving AFC teams with 10-5 records.  I will avoid a 2-TD spread here but the UNDER is tempting.

Green Bay – 5.5 at Chicago (51.5):  If the Packers win, they get the BYE Week in the NFC playoffs.  If the Bears win, they will remain alive for the playoffs.  The oldest rivalry in the NFL comes down to the final game of the season and the game means something in the standings as well as to the players.  Cannot ask for much more…  The weather is forecast to be cold and windy – – no surprise for Chicago in January – – but dry.  This is the Game of the Week.

Dallas – 2 at Giants (44.5):  The spread opened as a “pick ‘em” game and moved quickly to this level.  The Cowboys have won 3 games in a row and the winner here will be the NFC East winner if the Eagles beat the WTFs on Sunday Nite.  So, forget that the combined records of these two teams is a measly 11-20; this game means something; one of these teams and its fans will be glued to the TV on Sunday Nite and rooting for the Eagles to beat the WTFs.  I think that team will be the Cowboys; Andy Dalton has been playing well since returning from injury and the Eagles’ defense has been a mess for the ;last month or so.  I like the Cowboys to win and cover on the road here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – 10.5 (42.5):  The spread opened the week at 6 points; then Mike Tomlin said he was resting some of the Steelers’ starters – – including Ben Roethlisberger and TJ Watt because the Steelers never really got a BYE Week this season as part of the schedule jockeying the NFL had to orchestrate to get the season in on time.  Surely, the Browns will not take the game lightly; it was only last week that they lost to the Jets; they cannot want to lose again here to the Steelers’ JVs, right?  And just as things seemed to be coming together in favor of the Browns came news that they had to close down their team facilities in mid-week due to COVID-19 protocols.  In addition to the playoff meaning for the Browns and the playoff seeding for the Steelers, this game has one other interesting angle; it is almost as if a Hollywood screenwriter set up the angle.

• Mason Rudolph will play QB for the Steelers and Myles Garrett will play DE for the Browns.
• The only thing missing from the script here is that the two players will not be mic-ed up so that their verbal stylings will not be recorded for posterity.

Just spitballing here but suppose Mason Rudolph stinks out the joint here; I mean plays embarrassingly bad.  Then given that the Steelers have a very good defense in place and given that Ben Roethlisberger’s career arc is trending downward, would the Steelers seriously go shopping for a QB in the offseason?

Tennessee – 7.5 at Houston (57):  The Titans win the division with a victory here.  The Texans seem to have checked out on the year and some of them at least are contemplating a week or so on a sunny beach somewhere in the Caribbean very soon.  Last week the Texans gave up 37 points to the Bengals and 371 yards passing to Brandon Allen.  The Texans’ defense is a mess and the Titans’ offense should do well here.  [Aside:  Derrick Henry needs 223 yards rushing in the game to reach 2000 yards for the season.]  The problem for the Titans is that their defense is also a mess; that is why you see such a high Total Line on the game.

New Orleans – 7 at Carolina (48):  The Saints are clearly the better team; the Panthers, however, are playing hard and with purpose under rookie coach Matt Ruhle.  They may be outmanned here but they will not be outhustled or outhit.  The Saints can still get the BYE Week in the NFC playoffs if both Seattle and Green Bay lose; so, they do have “something to play for”.

Jets at New England – 3 (40): Both teams have been eliminated from playoff consideration here.  The Jets cannot improve or hurt their draft position; they will have the 2^nd overall pick next April.  The Patriots have a lot of players who have never been in the situation where there is nothing they can do to be part of the playoffs this season; it might be interesting to see how they react.  The Jets arrive in Foxboro with a 2-game winning streak and a defense that has held the Rams and the Browns (two playoff aspirants as of this week) to 20 points or less in those two games.  As noted above, the Pats’ offense is virtually non-existent.  I think the Jets win this game, so I’ll be happy to take them plus some points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Minnesota – 7 at Detroit (54.5):  Both teams are eliminated from playoff consideration here too.  As an added bit of spice, the status of Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford is “up in the air” and we saw last week that his backups, Chase Daniel and David Blough, are not “emerging stars”.  Neither defense has played well for most of the season but the Vikes’ offense has shown some cohesion from time to time – – except that for Sunday’s game, Dalvin Cook will be with his family due to the sudden death of his father.  This game has no social redeeming qualities; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – 6.5 (50.5):  The perfect punctuation mark for the entirety of this goofy NFL season can be had in this game if it follows this script:

1. Falcons lead 21-0 at the half.
2. Falcons lead 28-10 at the end of the 3^rd quarter
3. Bucs – with Tom Brady at QB – win in OT 37-31

The Falcons came close to following that script just 2 weeks ago.  The Falcons have played significantly better in December than they did earlier in the year, but it just has not showed in the standings.  The key to this game comes down to motivation or lack thereof.  The Bucs are in the playoffs no matter what; the Falcons are out of the playoffs no matter what; which team cares the most?

Baltimore – 13 at Cincy (44):  The Ravens are one of the 10-5 AFC teams seeking playoff entry; the situation here is simple; the Ravens are ”in” if they win.  Obviously, the Bengals can only be spoilers here; they have been playoff-irrelevant for quite a while.  However, the Bengals have won 2 in a row, and the Ravens have won 4 in a row.  Boy, that line looks fat to me; I must resist the temptation to make a pick in a game with that big a spread…

Miami at Buffalo – 2.5 (46):  This line is all over the place; you can find it at 3.5 points at one sports book and at “pick ‘em” at one other sportsbook.  The reason is that bettors do not yet have a sense of who will play and for how long for the Bills.  The Bills have the #2 seed locked up with a win here; as noted above, this game is very important to the Dolphins and their playoff chances.  Here is what I do know with certainty.

• The game is in Buffalo; the calendar says it is January; even Al Gore knows it is not going to be “balmy weather”.  The lookahead forecast on Weather.com calls for temperatures in the mid-30s with snow showers and 8 mph winds.

The Dolphins’ defense has gotten the team to this point – notwithstanding the miraculous comeback win last week against the Raiders (see above).  That defense will need to be at the top of its game here because Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense is on a roll over the last month.  This game got strong consideration as the Game of the Week; if you can watch it, do so.

Chargers at KC (no lines):  I have no idea who will play for the Chiefs and if the starters do play, for how long will they play.  The game means nothing to the either team.  I also expect the Chiefs to employ a lot of formations and a lot of plays that they have no intention of using once the playoffs begin just to give defensive coordinators something extra to worry about.

Seattle – 6 at SF (46.5):  The Seahawks are the division winners, and they could be the #1 seed in the NFC if they win here and both the Saints and the Packers lose on Sunday.  The Niners stepped things up last week and beat the playoff contending Cards with a solid performance from CJ Beathard.  Problem is that the Seahawks defense is playing very well now and is better than the Cards’ defense.

Las Vegas – 2.5 at Denver (51):  This is the third game on the card for this week where neither team has any part in playoff determination nor seeding.  The Raiders are the better team – – but they have been the better team several times over the course of their 1-5 stretch since mid-November.  The porous Raiders’ defense might be just the thing that Drew Lock needs to make the Broncos’ braintrust think he just might be “The Guy” going forward.  Here is an interesting circumstance for this game:

• Raiders are 2-5-0 on the road for the season
• Broncos are 2-5-0 at home for the season.
• Is anyone up for a tie game?

I think the players and coaches here will play the game “loosie-goosey” and neither defense gives me confidence that they can stop “the other guys”.  I like this game to turn into a shoot-out; I think the game will go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Arizona at Rams “pick ‘em” (39):  Anyone who bets this game before the active lists are announced is someone just looking for action.  Jared Goff will not play for the Rams (see above); in addition, the Rams put Cooper Kupp on the COVID list, and he may not be eligible by Sunday.  For the Cards, Kyler Murray has a “lower leg injury” and may have to be scratched; his backup on the roster is Chris Streveler who was the QB for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers who went to the CFL Grey Cup last year.  If the Cards win, they are in the playoffs; if the Rams win, they are in the playoffs; if the Rams lose, they might still get in the playoffs.  Lots of possibilities here and none will mean much until you know who can play and who cannot.

(Sun Nite)  Washington – 1 at Philly (43):  The WTFs situation is simple; win here and they are in the playoffs; lose here and they go home.  The Eagles situation is equally simple; they go home win or lose.  The fact that Dwayne Haskins was cut so abruptly last Monday tells me that Ron Rivera is confident that Alex Smith will be a go for this game.  Taylor Heinicke played OK in relief last week but if Smith were a no-go, Haskins would still be on the team for emergencies as opposed to Steven Montez a rookie from Colorado.  I think the Washington defense wins this one; I like the WTFs to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Before reviewing this week’s Six-Pack, here is how the NFL Playoffs ought to look as of late Sunday night:

• AFC:  The BYE WEEK belongs to the Chiefs no matter what.  Then:
• #7 Colts at #2 Bills
• #6 Browns at #3 Steelers – – for the third time this year.
• #5 Ravens at #4 Titans – – Darrel Royal, Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi will love this one; it is a rematch, and the prior game went to OT.
• NFC:  The BYE Week will belong to the Packers.  Then:
• #7 Cards at #2 Saints
• #6 Rams at #3 Seahawks – – for the third time this year.
• #5 Bucs at #4 WTFs

Here is the Six Pack for this week – – with 8 selections again:

• Georgia – 6.5 over Cincy
• Texas A&M – 7 over UNC
• West Virginia – 7 over Army
• Ball State/San Jose State UNDER 65.5
• Cowboys – 2 over Giants
• Jets +3 versus Patriots
• Raiders/Broncos OVER 51
• WTFs – 1 over Eagles.

Last week, I threw in a Money Line Parlay and hit 3 of the 4 games – – which means it was a loser.  But it was fun, so here is another 4 team Money Line Parlay for this week:

• Clemson at minus-300
• Georgia at minus-260
• Jets at +140
• Bucs at minus-300.
• My calculation says this will pay out at +490.

Finally, here is another NFL-related observation from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Ex-QB Peyton Manning is unveiling a Tennessee-based whiskey called Sweetens Cove Bourbon.

“To no one’s surprise, restaurateurs say it also goes well with Omaha steaks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………