Daily Rants | The Sports Curmudgeon

Football Friday 11/20/20

The sun has risen 7 times since the last Football Friday. That astronomical sequence of events inexorably leads us to yet one more Football Friday and the first thing on the agenda as usual is to review last week’s Six-Pack.

College: 0-0-0
NFL: 2-4-0
Combined: 2-4-0

Those results lead to this set of season totals:

College: 9-13-1
NFL: 16-19-1
Combined: 25-32-2

College Football Commentary:

Tommy Tuberville was the head football coach at four schools (Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincy) over a 20-year period. Earlier this month, he was elected to the US Senate by the voters in Alabama. I have believed for years that football coaches and politicians are people who have a common skill that makes them successful:

Neither football coaches nor politicians are truthtellers.

Obviously, after being declared the winner in his senatorial election, Tuberville was interviewed. Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times summarized perfectly the most important news nugget from that interview:

“Tommy Tuberville — the former Auburn football coach and newly elected senator from Alabama — rattled off the three branches of the federal government as ‘the House, the Senate and executive.’

“At least he didn’t say offense, defense and special teams.”

Last week, Notre Dame avoided a potential let-down game and beat BC 45-31. Once again, the Irish rolled out a dominant running game gaining 285 yards on the ground. Notre Dame still has UNC and Wake Forest on the schedule but last week’s game between those two teams does not indicate that either of them has a defense capable of stopping the Irish.

UNC beat Wake Forest 59-53. The UNC “defense” held Wake Forest to a meager 606 yards of offense in the game while the Demon Deacons’ “defense” yielded 742 yards in the game. That’s right, the two teams combined for 1348 yards of offense. Tar Heels’ QB, Sam Howell posted this stat line for the game:

32 of 45 for 550 yards with 6 TDs and 1 INT

To summarize the UNC/Wake Forest game in two words:

“Tackling Optional”.

NC State beat Florida St. 38-22. The score was 28-3 halfway through the third quarter. Two meaningless 4^th quarter TDs by the Seminoles made this score seem a lot closer than the game was.

Nebraska beat Penn State 30-23. This is the first time since 2001 that the Nittany Lions have opened a season at 0-4. Penn State won the stat battle gaining 501 yards while only allowing 298 yards to the Huskers. Penn State had two drives into the Red Zone in the final 5 minutes of the game but turned the ball over on downs both times. Therein lies the reason for the result here.

Illinois came from behind to beat Rutgers 23-20. Rutgers led 20-10 halfway through the 3^rd quarter but could not hold on for a win. The Illini ran the ball for 338 yards in the game.

Northwestern beat Purdue 27-20. The Wildcats remain undefeated for the year at 4-0. Purdue’s ground game was non-existent here gaining a total of 2 yards on 17 carries.

Indiana beat Michigan State 24-0. The Spartans managed only 191 yards total offense for the game and only managed 9 first downs in the game. Adding insult to injury, the Spartans turned the ball over 4 times. Indiana WR, Ty Fryfogle, caught 10 passes for 200 yards and 2 TDs. He gained more yardage than the entire Michigan State team did.

Wisconsin beat Michigan 49-11. I think the jury has reached its verdict and that verdict is that Michigan is not a good football team. The Wolverines only managed a total of 219 yards of total offense here and only 47 yards rushing on 19 carries. The score at halftime was 28-0; there was no drama involved in this game.

Florida beat Arkansas 63-35. Gators’ QB, Kyle Trask had his way with the Arkansas defense; here is his stat line:

23 of 29 for 356 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs

Ole Miss beat S. Carolina 59-42. This was another game where defense took a day off. Ole Miss amassed 708 yards on offense; S. Carolina gained a meager 548 yards. The Gamecocks dominated on the ground gaining 318 yards (8.2 yards per carry); normally that wins the game for you. However, the Ole Miss passing game gained 513 yards (14.2 yards per attempt) and that trumped the S. Carolina run game. South Carolina is now 2-5 for the season and in the aftermath of this loss – the third in a row – they fired head coach Will Muschamp and set about the task of hiring his replacement.

Kentucky beat Vandy 38-35. That result is a lot closer than most folks thought it would be; Vandy is 0-6. The Commodores’ four remaining opponents are Florida, Tennessee, Georgia and Mizzou. They will be serious underdogs to Florida and Georgia and probably a touchdown underdog to Tennessee and Mizzou; things are looking bleak for Vandy. The Kentucky running game was potent in that game gaining 308 yards on 34 carries (9.1 yards per carry).

Boise St. beat Colorado state 52-21. This was a nice bounce-back game for the Broncos after being beaten badly two weeks ago by BYU. Two of the Boise St. TDs came on blocked kicks in the first quarter – – one was a blocked punt the other a blocked field goal attempt. Another Broncos’ TD came on a second blocked punt in the second quarter. The special teams coach deserves the game ball here.

Cincy beat East Carolina 55-17. This was another dominant performance by the Bearcats’ defense. Cincy is 7-0 on the season and looks to be the best team in the so-called Group of 5 conferences.

College Games of Interest:

If I have counted correctly, there are 16 college football games either cancelled or postponed this weekend.

Iowa – 2 at Penn St. (47): Back when the season started, who saw the possibility that Penn State might open its season with 5 straight losses? I certainly did not…

Cincy – 5.5 at UCF (63.5): The Cincy defense has allowed an average of 12.4 points per game in the first 7 games of the 2020 season. UCF’s defense allows 28.7 points per game. On offense, both teams average just over 40 points per game.

Clemson – 35.5 at Florida State (63.5): Trevor Lawrence has been cleared out COVID-19 protocol and is expected to start in this game. The Seminoles’ defense ranks 101^st in the country giving up 36.1 points per game. This will be a rout but laying 5 TDs plus a hook is not going to happen here. The more interesting possibility is that Clemson’s defense – – 12^th in the country in total defense and 18^th in the country in scoring defense – – might just shut down the Seminoles’ offense to the point where Florida St. does not get out of single digits. In that scenario taking the UNDER here would make sense; I always try to make sense, so I’ll take the UNDER here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Missouri – 6.5 at South Carolina (57): It might be interesting to see if interim coach Mike Bobo can change the fortunes of the Gamecocks in this game against a less-than-fearsome opponent.

Indiana at Ohio State – 21 (66): Both teams arrive at the kickoff undefeated; the Hoosiers are ranked 10^th in the country this week. Nonetheless, Ohio State is a 3 TD favorite in this game. I gave this one “Game of the Week” consideration.

Michigan – 10.5 at Rutgers (54.5): Rutgers shocked Michigan State in the opening game back in late October but they have lost their last 3 games including a come-from-ahead loss to Illinois last week (see above). Michigan opened the season with a big win over Minnesota, but they too have lost their last 3 games. Michigan could not run the ball at all last week (see above) while Rutgers could not stop the run at all last week (see above). Who knows what will happen here/

LSU – 1.5 at Arkansas (62.5): Arkansas opened the week as a 1-point favorite over LSU. I doubt many people saw that coming as the season got underway. I am tempted to take this game to go OVER because the LSU defense is miserable giving up 33.6 points per game; it also ranks 112^th in the country in total defense yielding 478.6 yards per game. Chalk it up to a lack of willpower on my part; I will succumb to the temptation and take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Kentucky at Alabama – 29 (58.5): The Wildcats’ defense has allowed only 21.3 points per game in their first 7 games. It will be interesting to see how it fares against Alabama this week. I think Alabama will score between 35 and 40 points. The key here is the Alabama defense which has been scary good recently; if they shut down the Kentucky running game, they might hold the Wildcats to single digits. I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Mississippi State at Georgia – 24 (44.5): I know that the Mississippi State offense has sputtered ever since the opening game and that Georgia has an elite defense. Having said that, I am stunned that the oddsmakers think the Georgia offense is worthy of being a 24-point favorite over another SEC team. Very puzzling…

Wisconsin – 7 at Northwestern (44): Here is a meeting between two undefeated teams in the Big-10 West. Because these teams are in the same division of the Big-10, I gave this “Game of the Week” consideration.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma – 7 (59): The Sooners are 4-2 in conference; the Cowboys are 4-1 in conference. A loss for the Sooners probably eliminates them from consideration in the Big-12 conference championship game. A win for the Cowboys points them toward that game because their two remaining opponents both have losing records. Notwithstanding the two Big-10 games between undefeated teams, I think this one is the college Game of the Week.

K-State at Iowa State – 10.5 (46.5): This matches the other two teams in the top 4 of the Big-12 conference as of this morning.

USC – 3 at Utah (57): Here we are in mid-November and this is the first game of the year for Utah.

Washington State at Stanford – 3.5 (63): I do not love Washington State by any means, but I cannot figure out why Stanford is favored here other than the game venue. Stanford has not been a scoring machine and it has not shown a stout defense in losing both of its games for the season. I like Wazzu to win the game outright; I’ll take them plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Boise State – 14 at Hawaii (57.5): This is a long trip and a significant change in weather conditions for Boise St.

[Aside: I notice now that I have already put 4 games in this week’s Six-Pack, and I know from glancing at NFL lines during the week that I like more than two “opportunities” there. Ergo, this week’s “Six-Pack” is going to be numerically challenged.]

NFL Commentary:

The Cleveland Browns find themselves with a 6-3 record this morning and they are in serious contention for a playoff spot in the AFC. The last time the Browns made the playoffs was in 2002; they lost in the wildcard round then to the Steelers. The last time the Browns won a playoff game was in 1994; they won in the wildcard round that year. Here is why I find that bit of trivia interesting:

The Browns’ coach for that last playoff win was Bill Belichick.
The Browns’ victim in that last playoff win was the New England Patriots.

Several weeks ago, the Seahawks’ defense had the potential to break the record for most yards allowed per game in NFL history. (440.1 yards per game – – Saints – – 2012) Last week, the Seahawks’ defense played better; last night the Seahawks’ defense played well holding the Cardinals to 314 yards of offense – – only 57 of those yards on the ground. In addition, the defense scored a safety to boot. Carlos Dunlap was acquired in a trade with the Bengals a couple of weeks ago and he played very well last night registering 2 sacks.

I do not know if it was GM John Schneider or coach Pete Carroll or someone else in the organization that identified the need on defense and then matched Dunlop’s skills to that need. Whoever was the one to make that connection deserves a lot of praise from Seahawks’ fans this morning.

In last week’s action, the Bucs beat the Panthers 46-23. The scoreboard operator had to be on his toes all the time here. Teddy Bridgewater had to leave the game with a knee injury and the Bucs’ defense clamped down allowing only 20 yards net offense for the second half. The Bucs produced 500 yards on offense; this game was never really in doubt.

The Browns beat the Texans 10-7. The scoreboard operator could have been on Quaaludes for much of this game and no one would have noticed. Field conditions and weather conditions were bleak; winds gusted to 52 mph during the game according to weather.com. Nick Chubb returned to action for the Browns and averaged 6.6 yards per carry for the day. Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined to carry the ball 38 times for 230 yards.

The Steelers beat the Bengals 36-10. The Bengals could not run the ball consistently in the game and put the entire offensive responsibility on Joe Burrow to try to play catch-up. That might work against a bad defense or a mediocre defense that is having a bad day; it did not work against the Steelers’ defense at all. The Steelers did not run well gaining only 44 yards for the day – – but Ben Roethlisberger showed why he will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days by throwing for 333 yards and 4 TDs and controlling the game with short passes.

The Packers beat the Jags 24-20. Before you conclude that the close score of this game at Lambeau Field indicates that Jake Luton has announced his presence in the NFL and everyone needs to take notice, look a bit deeper into the stats. The Jags got a TD on a 90-yard punt return and got 10 points off two turnovers that gave the Jags a short field. [The TD “drive” after one turnover was all of 16 yards.] Total offense for the Jags was only 260 yards.

The Giants beat the Eagles 27-17. The Eagles’ defense took the day off; the Giants arrived with a sputtering offense – – to put it mildly – – and that Eagles’ defense proceeded to give up almost 6 yards per play. The Eagles’ offense was no great shakes here either; they were 0 for 9 on 3^rd down conversions. Daniel Jones led the Giants in rushing for the game.

The Lions beat the WTFs 30-27. The Lions led this game 24-3 and tried their darndest to give it away. Conventional wisdom around DC is that the WTFs’ defensive front is the strength of the team and the piece around which they will rebuild the franchise. Of the 7 guys up front on defense, there are 5 first round picks. Now here is a bit of harsh reality regarding that defensive front 7:

Rank 21^st in the NFL in run defense allowing 126 yards per game
Allowed the Lions 105 yards on the ground – – Lions rank 25thin the NFL in rushing offense.

But it gets worse … Last week, the WTFs tied the score at 27 all with 16 seconds to play in the game; they had all the momentum going into what simply had to be OT. Here is the sequence of plays in the final 16 seconds of that game by that defense:

Kickoff goes out of the end zone – – ball on the Lions’ 25 – – 16 seconds left
Lions complete a 10-yard pass – – receiver runs out of bounds – – 12 seconds left
Long pass is incomplete – – 6 seconds left – – EXCEPT one of those first round picks on the DL, Chase Young, roughs the passer – – ball placed at the 50 yardline. [Aside: Coach Ron Rivera tried to protect his rookie DE saying that the WTFs’ QB had been hit harder than that with no call made earlier in the game. Fact is that Young took two full steps after the ball was out of Matthew Stafford’s hand before decking the QB. It was a correct call by the officials, and it was a Meathead of the Week sort of play.]
Lions complete a 9-yard pass – – 3 seconds left – – Time out Lions
Matt Prater kicks a 59-yard field goal to win the game as the clock expires.

Only Wile E. Coyote could have ended the game in a more inept and frustrating fashion.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 23-16. The Rams were efficient and effective on offense but not explosive. They did not need to be here because the Rams’ defense played very well. They did not allow Russell Wilson to throw a TD pass sacked him 6 times and intercepted 2 passes. The Seahawks have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and have dropped to third place in the NFC West. [Update: Their win last night over the Cards puts them back atop the NFC West pending the outcome of the Rams/Bucs game on Monday night.]

The Cards beat the Bills 32-30. Surely you have seen the replay of the Hall Mary pass that won the game for the Cards. Even without that play, this was an entertaining game to watch. Two interceptions by the Cards in the second half kept the Bills within reach. The Cards ran the ball for 217 yards in the game on 35 carries (6.2 yards per try).

The Dolphins beat the Chargers 29-21. Yes, it was another one-possession loss for the Chargers – – but at least they did not lose after having a huge lead and squandering it. Call that progress? The Dolphins took the lead early by blocking a punt by the Chargers after their opening series went 3-and-out and then recovering the blocked punt at the Chargers’ 1-yardline. Neither offense guided by highly regarded rookie QBs did much business here. The Dolphins’ total offense was 280 yards; the Chargers’ total offense was 273 yards.

The Raiders beat the Broncos 37-12. The Raiders intercepted 4 passes in the game including one where the Broncos had the ball inside the Raiders’ 5 yardline. For good measure, they also recovered a Broncos’ fumble while their offense did not turn the ball over at all in the game. The Raiders controlled the tempo and the game with a running attack that amassed 203 yards on 41 carries.

The Saints beat the Niners 27-13. The differential here is 2 TDs. The Niners fumbled away 2 punts in the game both recovered by the Saints and both led to touchdowns. Ka-beesh? The Saints’ offense was hampered by the absence of Drew Brees who left the game with a rib/chest injury and did not play at all in the second half. Turns out that Brees has multiple broken ribs and a punctured lung. He is listed as week-to-week; I suspect he will be out for a while. As of this morning, the Saints have a half-game lead over the Bucs in the NFC South. It is never a good time to have your first string QB out of action; but if there is a silver lining for Saints’ fans here, it lies in the remaining Saint’s schedule and the records – as of this morning – of the teams on that schedule:

Falcons 3-6-0
Broncos 3-6-0
Falcons 3-6-0
Eagles 3-5-1
Chiefs 8-1-0
Vikes 4-5-0
Panthers 3-7-0

The game against the Chiefs is clearly the toughest one left on the schedule and it is one month from today on December 20^th. If Drew Brees is really “week-to-week” he might be available for that one…

The Pats beat the Ravens 23-17. The Pats only managed 135 yards passing in the game, but the air attack did produce 2 TD passes both caught by Rex Burkhead. Normally, that level of performance would indicate a loss. However, that effort was bolstered by a running game that gained 173 yards on 39 carries. That is not spectacular by any means – – but it was enough to keep the chains moving. The Pats had 25 first downs to only 19 for the Ravens. The Ravens are now 6-3 which puts them 3 games behind the Steelers in the AFC North plus the Steelers own the tie breaker as of now having beaten the Ravens earlier this year.

The Vikes beat the Bears 19-13 in one of the uglier NFL games of the year. Kirk Cousins finally won a game on Monday night and Nick Foles had to be carted off the field in the final minute of the game with what is described as a “hip/leg injury’. The Bears’ offense is non-existent; their only TD came on a 104-yard kickoff return to start the second half. They could not run the ball (41 yards on 17 tries) and their passing game was nothing but check down stuff (31 pass attempts produced 124 yards). The Bears’ defense is for real; it held Dalvin Cook in check (30 carries for 96 yards) and produced 2 turnovers in the game. The Bears’ defense is like a single Mom with a deadbeat Dad…

The Bears have their BYE Week this week. There is no official word on whether Foles can be back for next week’s encounter with the Packers. Stay tuned…

NFL Games:

Four teams have a BYE Week this week:

Bears: They will spend the week figuring out which of the three QBs on the roster is the least worst so they can put him out there next week to throw the offense into neutral.
Bills: They get a whole week to keep the taste of that Hail Mary pass in their mouths.
Giants: They get to revel in the glory of their 2-game winning streak – – something no other NFC East team has accomplished this season.
Niners: In addition to getting time to heal, the Niners should try to figure out why they are 1-4 at home while going 3-2 on the road.

There are plenty of games on the card for this weekend that have significant playoff implications; last night’s Cards/Seahawks game was merely an appetizer.

Philly at Cleveland – 2.5 (47): The Browns are 6-3 for the season. In their 3 losses they have scored a total of 19 points (6.3 points per game). In their 6 wins, they have scored a total of 197 points (32.7 points per game). Call theirs the Night and Day Offense… The Eagles’ offense is far more predictable; it is never very good. Sometimes, Carson Wentz & Co. are “mediocre” and on other days they are merely Meh! The Browns are in the playoff hunt; the Eagles lead the pathetic NFC East for now. Truth be told, this miserable game has playoff implications.

Atlanta at New Orleans – 3.5 (50): The spread here opened at 7 points; that was before the extent of Drew Brees’ injury was known so the drop is explainable to something other than a flood of “Falcons’ money”. Jameis Winston will be at QB for the Saints; if he avoids his bugbear – the INT – the Saints could control this game. The Falcons have won 2 in a row; the Saints have won 6 in a row. I think the Falcons are catching the Saints at the right time; the Falcons will have their offensive weapons healthy and in action; the Saints will have to adapt to Jameis Winston in place of Drew Brees – – and those two guys are very different QBs. I like the Falcons plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Detroit at Carolina – 3 (47): Teddy Bridgewater had to leave last week’s game with a right leg injury; he is questionable for this game. If he cannot play, the next man up for the Panthers is PJ Walker or Will Grier. Walker’s last playing experience was in the XFL last Spring; Grier was the Panthers’ third-round pick out of West Virginia last Spring. On the other sideline, Matthew Stafford injured his throwing hand in last week’s win over the WTFs, but he finished that game and is expected to play here. (Chase Daniel would take over if Stafford could not go.) This is one of the games this week with no playoff implications. And – – until you know which QB will be playing for both teams, making a pick or a wager is akin to playing the lottery.

New England – 1 at Houston (49): Watch out; the Pats are on a 2-game winning streak; they are not yet looming in the playoff hunt, but Bill Belichick’s teams tend to get better as the calendar turns to late November and December. On the other side of the field, the Texans are toast; they are 2-7-0 and sit 4 full games behind both the Colts and the Titans in the AFC South. I think the Pats will run the ball very effectively here; I’ll take the Pats to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Pittsburgh – 10.5 at Jax (47): The Steelers have yet to lose a game; the Jags are 1-8-0. Last week, the Jags won the turnover battle and scored on a long punt return – – and still lost the game (see above). If the Steelers do not sleepwalk through this one, they should win it easily. Nevertheless, I will avoid that spread of two scores plus a hook. Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel had an interesting take on this game:

“With the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers getting ready for a game against the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin wanted to make it clear to the media that, ‘We are not a Big Ten team playing a MAC opponent this week.’ He’s right about that. The Steelers are an SEC team playing a MAC opponent.”

Green Bay at Indy – 2.5 (51): This spread opened with the Packers as a 2-point favorite. Lots of playoff importance here; the Colts are tied with the Titans for the lead in the AFC South; the Packers are comfortably in the lead in the NFC North and they are tied with the Saints for the #1 seed in the playoffs as of now. The Packers had to rally to beat the Jags last week; I think they were looking ahead to this game and almost got beat. The Colts’ defense is clearly the better defense here; the Packers’ QB is clearly the better QB here. Therein lies the key to this game. Here is Fun Fact:

The Packers have never beaten the Colts in Indy.

Cincy at Washington – 1 (47): This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week and I do not want to see any finger-pointing by fans of the WTFs toward the Jets/Chargers game lower on the card. These teams arrive with a combined record of 4-13-1; they both stink. Alex Smith gives the WTFs a patina of competence as their QB; he is surrounded on offense by mediocrity save for Terry McLaurin who has emerged as a good WR. The Bengals have a budding young QB who is leading the team in a positive direction – – but he too has little help around him. I will certainly get this game in the early afternoon time slot here in the DC area; count your blessings if your CBS affiliate opts for something else.

Tennessee at Baltimore – 5 (49.5): Lots of playoff hopes are in play here. The Titans “trail” the Colts on the basis of a tie-breaker this morning; the Ravens are 3 games behind the Steelers and have the same 6-3 record as 5 other teams in the AFC so they are chasing a wildcard slot. The Ravens’ offense has been missing any sort of flow or rhythm or continuity for the past several weeks; the Titans’ defense has been missing any sort of lockdown capability for all of 2020 giving up an average of 398.1 yards per game. If that does not allow the Ravens’ offense to jumpstart, then there is serious trouble in Charm City. Derrick Henry will surely test the Ravens’ run defense which is giving up 4.5 yards per carry to date.

Dallas at Minnesota – 7 (48): The Vikes have won three games in a row – each of them over a divisional opponent; that does not have them squarely in the playoff race yet, but their schedule is “friendly”. They have two tough games against the Saints and the Bucs (both on the road), but the other 4 games are definitely winnable. That is why this week’s game is important to the Vikes’ playoff hopes down the road. The Cowboys had a BYE Week last week and they got good news when they learned that Andy Dalton had cleared the concussion protocol. Dalvin Cook has been spectacular this year; Ezekiel Elliott has not. If Cook can have what for him is an average game, that will expose the Cowboys’ secondary to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and I do not see that secondary being able to withstand that. I like the Vikes at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun Nite) KC – 7.5 at Las Vegas (57): Andy Reid coached teams are 18-3 coming off a BYE Week; the Chiefs had last week off. This should be a high-scoring event. The Raiders inflicted the only loss on the Chiefs’ record this year so maybe there is a “revenge factor” at work here? Look for the Raiders to run effectively on the Chiefs’ defense and look for the Chiefs’ to move the ball through the air on the Raiders’ secondary which does not get a lot of help from the Raiders’ pass rushers who have registered only 11 sacks in 9 games this year. Both teams are serious playoff contenders in the AFC. I call this the Game of the Week.

Miami – 3.5 at Denver (45): The Dolphins have realistic playoff aspirations; the Broncos – – not so much. The Dolphins have shown that they can win high scoring games and they can win defensive games. The Dolphins play and practice at sea level – almost literally – so the altitude will be a challenge for them. Nonetheless, I like their defense and I have been impressed by Tua’s poise at QB over the last several games. I like the Dolphins to win and cover even on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Jets at Chargers – 9.5 (46): I know; this is not a good game. Break out the Jim Mora rant about “Playoffs?” and you can have some fun with this one. The Chargers are 2-7-0 but their point differential is only minus-19 points. The Jets are 0-9 with a point differential of minus-147 points. The Jets had a BYE Week last week, but they will still be without Sam Darnold at QB – – meaning another week of Joe Flacco dinking and dunking to a mediocre corps of pass catchers.

(Mon Nite) Rams at Bucs – 4 (48): Plenty of playoff implications here… A win for the Rams will tie them with the Seahawks for the lead in the NFC West; a win for the Bucs coupled with a loss by the Saints – would leave those teams tied in the NFC South. Here is another game to be decided by defense. Both teams can play explosive offense and both teams can have their offenses throttled down. Which defense throttles down the opposing offense here will determine the winner.

So, let me review this week’s bloated Six-Pack (8 entries):

Alabama/Kentucky UNDER 58.5
LSU/Arkansas OVER 63
Clemson/Florida State UNDER 63.5
Washington St. +3.5 against Stanford
Patriots – 1 over Texans
Dolphins – 3.5 over Broncos
Vikes – 7 over Cowboys
Falcons +3.5 against Saints

Finally, Dwight Perry had this item in the Seattle Times recently:

“A Thoroughbred named Belichick won the $400,000 Breeders Stakes, the final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto.

“In keeping with the theme, Belichick’s jockey wore sleeveless silks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

A Day Of Departures…

If today’s rant needed background music, the most appropriate song that comes to mind is Woody Guthrie’s creation, So Long, It’s Been Good To Know Ya. The final line of that song goes:

“And I got to be driftin’ along.”

Also, for today, it is important to know how to say “Good-bye” in more than one language; today marks a time of multiple departures in the sports world. So, let me begin by telling you that Theo Epstein has bid adios to the Chicago Cubs. Epstein has resigned – the official statement says that he “stepped down” – as the Team President for the Cubs. Epstein has been on the job for 9 years and he accomplished in Chicago the same thing he accomplished in Boston during his time with the Red Sox. With Epstein at the top of the organization chart, both teams broke the two longest World Series droughts in MLB. Quo vadis, Theo Epstein?

The NY Giants said auf wiedersehen to offensive line coach Mark Colombo. Early reports said that Colombo and head coach Joe Judge had a confrontation that led to fisticuffs between the two men; later reports said it was a “heated verbal exchange” but that no punches where thrown. That does not really matter in the long run because Colombo is no longer in the employ of the NY Giants this morning. The official account has it that Colombo did not appreciate the hiring of a “consultant” hired by the Giants related to the offensive line; that sparked the verbal confrontation; Joe Judge believed that Colombo was being insubordinate and so ends the tale. Quo vadis, Mark Colombo?

MLB bid ciao to Mets’ second-baseman, Robinson Cano, for the 2021 season. Cano tested positive for a PED and this is his second PED violation. [The first PED violation was in 2018 and Cano was suspended 80 games for that incident.] Secondarily, Robinson Cano will say sayonara to the $24M in salary he was slated to earn for playing in 2021. For the record, a third positive PED test would result in a lifetime banishment from baseball. Quo vadis, Robinson Cano?

Wichita State said au revoir to head basketball coach, Gregg Marshall. After a lengthy internal investigation, the school determined that Marshall’s record of 331-121 (along with a Final Four appearance) was not enough to keep him around in light of charges that he physically and verbally abused some of his players. Three citations of abuse have been reported:

Marshall allegedly physically struck at least one of his players during a practice session with a closed fist. If the investigation determined that was an actual event, that should have been enough to have dismissed him; that behavior borders on criminal behavior.
Marshall was allegedly verbally abusive to multiple players and managers. I know that I would not be able to draw a bright line between “verbal abuse” and “hard coaching” when it comes to verbal interactions; so unless I could hear the verbal interactions in the context of the moment, I can only shrug my shoulders at this finding.
Marshall’s verbal abuse in one specific case cited falls into “political incorrectitude” – – something that is horrific in 2020. Marshall allegedly told one of his players – – of Native American heritage – – to “get back on his horse” while simulating an “Indian war cry.” Please excuse me for failing to see the horror in that allegation; I am just not into virtue signaling this morning.

[Aside: Based on a negotiated buy-out, Wichita State will pay Gregg Marshall $7.75M over the next 6 years not to coach their basketball team. Quo vadis, Gregg Marshall?]

The University of South Carolina said slán to head football coach Will Muschamp; the Gamecocks are 2-5 in this topsy-turvy 2020 season. The program trajectory over the past several seasons has not been positive; this year’s results were deemed to be intolerable; in the last three games – all losses – South Carolina has given up 159 points. The contract buy-out is reported to be $13M; so, do not shed too many crocodile tears for Muschamp and his family today. Quo vadis, Will Muschamp?

The NBA Draft came and went last night with lots of largely unknown players being selected and with lots of trade action exchanging picks to be used on other largely unknown players. The more interesting NBA personnel story of the week is the rumor that James Harden might want out of Houston and that Russell Westbrook might want out too.

One hot rumor has it that Harden wants to be traded to Brooklyn to play with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving there. Many folks have suggested that was not likely to be a happy time for those three players because each one needs the ball to be effective and there is only one basketball in use at any given moment. I do not dispute that analysis at all, but I think there is another issue with such an alignment. If those three players are on the court together playing defense, it might simulate a layup-line for the opposing team.
Another hot rumor is probably most interesting here in the DC area where it dominated sports talk radio yesterday. That rumor has it that the Wizards and Rockets would make an even-up trade of Russell Westbrook for John Wall. Wall will return next year after being sidelined with a major foot injury since December 2018. Wall’s contract runs through the end of the 2022-2023 season and totals $133M over the next 3 seasons. Given that he was not definitively better than Westbrook prior to that injury, the only reason I can see for the Rockets to make that deal is if they desperately want to say zay gezunt to Russell Westbrook.

Finally, today happens to be World Toilet Day. Please do not leave a comment explaining how you plan to celebrate this annual event. Having said that, let me use this occurrence to present a relevant entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm which relates to toilets and bidding farewell:

“Goldfish: A creature specifically bred to provide young children early training in flushing something dead down the toilet.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Playing Hopscotch Today …

As I contemplate the structure of this morning’s rant, nothing coherent comes to mind. So, I will just go to my clipboard and pick out an item or two and then wing it. Hey, there won’t be any extra charge for all that excitement…

There was a headline on CBSSports.com last week that said:

“MLB Rumors: 10 teams in on Marcell Ozuna”

My reaction when reading that:

Only ten? Does that mean there are 20 teams in MLB who think they have 3 outfielders who are better than Ozuna?

I said earlier this year that if Alex Smith made it to the field in an NFL game even if only to kneel out a game that he should be the Comeback Player of the Year. Well, now he is the starting QB for the WTFs and he played very well in his first start last week; the loss to the Lions was certainly not Smith’s fault. All that Smith had to overcome in his return to action was a gruesome leg fracture that took 17 surgeries to correct, a staph infection that put his life in jeopardy, and a nerve injury that gives him a condition known as “drop foot”. So, how can anything top that sort of return to glory?

Well, here is one to keep track of; it comes from an observation by Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Recovery: Trey Mancini’s announcement that after missing 2020 to battle colon cancer he’s ready to report to Orioles’ spring training already is one of baseball’s best stories of 2021.”

If I had asked you back in September which NFL team had the worst QB situation in the league, plenty of folks would likely have answered the WTFs (Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and maybe Alex Smith if he can actually suit up for a game) or possibly the Jets (Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco) or maybe even the Pats (a recovering Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer). I probably would have argued that it was Jets, but now in November, the NFL team with the worst QB situation is the Chicago Bears.

Nick Foles – – assuming he is OK after being carted off the field last night – – cannot get anything done with that Bears’ offensive unit. He needs a solid OL in front of him and some semblance of a running game to be effective and he has neither. If you are into crystals and mystical powers, you might convince yourself that Foles has some sort of magical harmony with the latitude and longitude of Philadelphia. He has had two productive stints there and has never been anything better than marginally competent anywhere else.
Mitchell Trubisky had a shining rookie year a winning record as a starting QB and led the Bears to the playoffs in 2018. Even so, he only averages 202.5 yards per game for his career. As the starter in 3 games this year, Trubisky threw 3 TDs and 6 INTs and averaged 186.7 yards per game. I have no explanation as to why he is regressing as a QB, but I am certain that when the topic of “Boneheaded NFL Draft Decisions” comes up, the Bears trading up to take Trubisky ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson will be part of the conversation. He has been out with a shoulder injury but is expected to be back in playing condition after the Bears take their BYE Week this weekend.
Tyler Bray is the third QB on the roster. He was undrafted out of Tennessee in 2013. Until last night, he had been in 1 NFL game (in 2017) where he threw 1 incomplete pass and ran the ball 1 time for 0 yards. Last night he came into the game when Foles had to leave and threw 5 passes completing 1 for 18 yards.

If you are a Bears’ fan, you cannot be pleased with that roster situation and that led me to wonder about the status of Josh Rosen. He was a hot property coming out of college in 2018 but had little success with the Cards in 2018 (the team was 3-13 on the season so no one had much success with them) and then made only a cameo appearance with the Dolphins last year. I had lost track of Rosen until I went looking and found that he is on the practice squad with the Bucs. On the main roster, the Bucs have 3 QBs – Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin – so there is just about no chance that Rosen is a key element in the Bucs’ playoff drive. Why hasn’t anyone in Chicago picked up the phone and called Rosen’s agent? Is he really that big a bust?

Rosen’s disappearance from public sight reminds me of a Mark Twain observation:

“Fame is a vapor; popularity an accident; the only earthly certainty is oblivion.”

The mention of Josh Rosen’s residence on the Bucs’ roster makes me think about the Bucs’ defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles. He spent 4 years as the head coach of the Jets; the first year of that tenure was promising; the Jets finished 10-6-0. Then the wheels came off the wagon; over the next three years, the cumulative record was 14-34-0. However, even in the times when it was obvious to everyone – to include the Jets’ players and coaches – that the team was going nowhere, Bowles had the team playing hard. I said then – and I still think – that he was fired because the roster given to him was guaranteed to fail.

Bowles’ performance in the job has been enhanced to a small degree by the performance of his successor, Adam Gase, which can only be described as nightmarish. Meanwhile, Bowles has the Bucs’ total defense ranked 3^rd in the NFL giving up only 300.3 yards per game and the Bucs rushing defense ranked first in the league yielding only 76.6 yards per game. I continue to believe that he is a good coach and that he should get another shot at a head coaching job soon.

Finally, since I mentioned Mark Twain above, let me close with another of his pithy observations:

“There’s one way to find out if a man is honest; ask him; if he says yes, you know he is crooked.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

RIP Paul Hornung

Paul Hornung died last weekend. The “Lombardi Packers” of the 1960s have now lost 4 key players in 2020 from those championship teams: Hornung, Herb Adderley, Willie Davis and Willie Wood. Hornung was a Heisman Trophy winner, and NFL MVP winner and a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. In addition to his running and throwing skills, he was also a placekicker and with all those talents he set a record for points scored in a season at 176. That record no longer stands because the NFL season has been expanded; Hornung scored those points in a 12-game season (14.7 points per game). On a less positive note, Hornung was suspended for a year by the NFL for involvement in gambling.

Rest in peace, Paul Hornung.

Late last week, the Ivy League announced that it has canceled its winter sports seasons. As was the case back in March when the Ivy League was the first conference to cancel its spring sports, the basis for the announcement last week is a spike in the number of coronavirus infections. The announcement says that this decision was made by the Ivy League Council of Presidents and it declares that “intercollegiate competition for spring sports is postponed through at least the end of February 2021.”

As much as I would wish that we could have some sort of cobbled together college basketball season, I think the Presidents in the Ivy League schools have made a rational decision here. Neither colleges, conferences or even the NCAA can afford to create and maintain “bubble environments” for teams even if any of those entities were willing to admit that academics must come second for the student-athletes in those bubbles. And because “bubbles” are impractical for colleges, there is no argument to be made that they can or should follow the NBA approach which produced lots of games and few if any coronavirus infections.

We should all acknowledge that there are some “student-athletes” at some schools playing certain sports who are not really students at all; however, many of the players on most of the teams actually try to take advantage of the educational opportunity afforded to them by their scholarship status. Those actual “student-athletes” need to go to class and need to interact with others in the campus community – like professors. And those “other folks” involved in the interactions are not bubbled and are part of the vector by which the coronavirus spreads.

The NCAA has decreed that the college basketball season will commence on 25 November; that is nine days from now. Given the public health data and the trends extant today where there are almost 100,000 new cases of coronavirus infection tabulated each day, it would seem to be only a matter of time until college basketball games run into the same fate that college football games have encountered. The college football season is a mess; it is only a matter of time until the college basketball season faces the same reality.

Moreover, there is another thing that is very wrong with the NCAA’s messaging with regard to COVID-19:

Public health officials have warned for months about the need for social distancing and mask wearing as actions that can slow the spread of the virus.
Public health officials have determined that close contact involving cheering, singing and heavy breathing encourages the spread of the virus.
NCAA football games violate virtually every one of those public health warnings and when you add “field-storming events”, tail gating and post-game celebrations/commiserations you realize that the NCAA is enabling super-spreader events every week.

Moving on … I have pointed out in the past that you cannot spell “corruption” without an “I” and an ”O” and a “C”. A Reuters report this morning makes me shake my head as I recall that statement. According to the report the IOC maven, Thomas Bach, declared that “no IOC rules were broken” by payments of about $8M from the Tokyo Olympic bid committee to an executive of the Tokyo organizing committee. The person involved as the recipient of the $8M, Haruyuki Takahashi, said that his work for which he received that $8M included lobbying IOC members and that lobbying involved his giving gifts to specific IOC members to include digital cameras and a Seiko watch.

Try not to think that you will be able to understand all of the financing involved here and the various ways that money moved about through various international financial houses; you would need to be the financial version of Sherlock Holmes to get to the bottom of it all. However, when someone “lobbies” a decision maker by giving him/her “presents”, it conjures up a circumstance that some might call “bribery”. Digital cameras and Seiko watches may not sound like big ticket items – but that fact alone raises an interesting question:

What else did that $8M “buy”? If it bought only Seiko watches, there must be a storage unit somewhere chock full of those puppies…

But do not worry. The IOC guys in charge have declared that there is nothing to see here and we should all just move along. After all “bribery” probably does not in fact result in any IOC rules being broken…

By the way, the IOC president also said over the weekend that he is confident that the Tokyo Games will be held safely and with fans in attendance. He said that the IOC would strive to assure that all fans will have been vaccinated against the coronavirus before arriving in Tokyo. [Aside: He did not say how the IOC was going to assure that a vaccine existed and was approved in time for people to be vaccinated prior to arriving in Tokyo; that is obviously, still TBD.] If you are thinking of attending some of the events in Tokyo next summer that sort of statement might make you feel confident that the folks in charge there have a concern for public safety. Juxtapose that with a few other statements and you might still have some doubts. According to BBC reporting:

When Mr. Bach was asked if he had gone to Tokyo to discuss contingencies for canceling the Games, his answer was a firm, “No.”
Japan’s Olympic minister Seiko Hashimoto similarly said that the Tokyo Games must be held “at any cost” in 2021.

Finally, Dwight Perry explained in the Seattle Times why MLB did not punish Justin Turner when he ”stormed the field” to celebrate the Dodgers’ World Series victory:

“MLB announced it won’t discipline Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner for returning to the field to celebrate his team’s World Series championship after testing positive midgame for COVID-19.

“Hey, it was either that or suspend him for 10 spring-training games.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Football Friday 11/13/20

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I always look forward to Friday morning in the Fall and early Winter because that is the time to create a new version of Football Friday. About once a season, Friday the Thirteenth intersects with Football Friday making me wonder if making any selections under those circumstances makes even a shred of sense. Today there is an extra burden:

Football Friday overlaps with Friday the Thirteenth … in the midst of 2020.

Oh well, I have already had a Six-Pack go 0-6-0 earlier this year, so how much worse can today be? <He asks timorously.>

First a review of last week’s Six-Pack which only had 5 entries:

College: 1-1-0
NFL: 1-2-0
Combined: 2-3-0

That brings the season totals – – embarrassingly – – to:

College: 9-13-1
NFL: 14-15-1
Combined: 23-28-2

College Football Commentary:

Since this is 2020 – – the year that will forever be known for COVID-19 – – I suppose it makes sense to acknowledge the breadth and depth of the coronavirus impact on college football for this weekend. Long ago, when just about every sport in the US was shut down, I said that football had a more significant challenge to overcome than other sports that might be able to create a “bubble environment” or more significant challenge than baseball where social distancing is far more prevalent as part of the way the game is played. Moreover, I said that colleges would have a more difficult time controlling viral spread than the NFL for cost reasons and because college players are also out and about in the general student population. Well, this week’s cancellations and postponements give you a snapshot picture of the difficulties facing college football this Fall.

Memphis at Navy – – postponed
Texas A&M at Tennessee – – postponed
Pitt at Georgia Tech – – postponed
Ohio State at Maryland – – cancelled
Air Force at Wyoming – – cancelled
Coastal Carolina at Troy – – postponed
Auburn at Mississippi State – – postponed
North Texas at UAB – – cancelled
La-Monroe at Arkansas State – – postponed
Georgia at Missouri – – postponed
Rice at La Tech – – postponed
Alabama at LSU – – postponed

These twelve “schedule disruptions” have hit small programs and big programs and they are widely spread geographically. Some conferences have some contingency openings in their concocted schedules for 2020 and others do not. Four games in the SEC are postponed while one game in each of the Big-10 and the PAC-12 have been cancelled.

BYU beat Boise St. 51-17. The game was in Boise and it was in doubt at the half; BYU led at that point by only 16-3. However, an injury to Boise’s QB in the first half was a bad omen for the Mustangs; then, the floodgates opened. BYU outgained Boise St 573 yards to 310 yards. BYU QB, Zack Wilson had another excellent performance:

21 of 27 for 359 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs

BYU is now 8-0 on the season. As an independent, BYU has had to patch together a schedule and it is not a tough schedule by any means. However, this sort of win could keep them on track for a New Year’s Day Bowl Game. The Cougars have only two games remaining on the schedule they cobbled together for this year; both are at home. They will be favored next week over North Alabama; they will likely be favored on December 12^th over San Diego State.

The topsy-turvy results from Big-10 action last week fits right in with the strangeness of events in 2020. Let me start with the fact that Maryland beat Penn State 35-19. In the last 44 times these teams have met, Maryland has won only 3 times including last weekend. Maryland led 35-7 at the start of the 4^th quarter so Penn State made the score look much more respectable in garbage time. Penn State is 0-3 on the season and may be on track for its worst season in a VERY long time. There have even been some rumblings that there is dissatisfaction with coach James Franklin in Happy Valley. I have no inside information on those rumors/rumblings but here is something about which I am confident:

If Penn State buys out James Franklin’s contract, he will land in a very plush coaching situation very quickly.

The Penn State program took another hit earlier this week when RB, Journey Brown, announced that he would need to stop playing football due to a heart condition. It really has been a bad year in State College…

Iowa beat Michigan State 49-7. What does this tell us about these two teams? Who knows? Michigan St lost to Rutgers in Game 1 and then beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Then it tossed this clunker out there for examination. Iowa had lost two close games – – to Purdue and Northwestern – coming into this. So, …

Is Iowa really good?
Is Michigan State that bad?
By the way, what does that say about Michigan?

Speaking of the Wolverines, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21. Indiana is not a team built on its defense – – but the Hoosiers were able to hold the Wolverines to 13 yards rushing for the game on 18 carries. What that says to me about Michigan is that the Wolverines are not particularly good.

Northwestern beat Nebraska 21-13. Northwestern is undefeated in the Big-10 West and Nebraska has yet to win a game. The Huskers led 13-7 at the half but were shut out in the second half. Strangely, the stats for this game would suggest a comfortable victory for Nebraska:

First downs: Nebraska 28 Northwestern 14
Total offense: Nebraska 442 yards Northwestern 317
Turnovers: Nebraska 2 Northwestern 2
Penalties: Nebraska 9 for 55 yards Northwestern 8 for 64 yards

Northwestern is 3-0 this year – – last year the Wildcats won a total of 3 games; things may be looking up in Evanston as much as they are looking bleak in State College…

In a battle of winless teams, Minnesota bludgeoned Illinois 41-14. Here are two stats to demonstrate the dominance here:

Minnesota outgained Illinois on offense 556 yards to 287 yards.
Minnesota rushing offense = 325 yards; Illinois total offense = 287 yards.

There was one beacon of normalcy in the Big-10 last week. Ohio State beat Rutgers 49-27. The score was 35-3 at halftime; the final score was not close – – but it was much more respectable than it was at halftime. Ohio State is the consistent performer in the Big-10 this year; and once again, Justin Fields was outstanding posting this stat line:

24 of 28 for 314 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs

Fields now has thrown 11 incomplete passes this year and he has thrown 11 TDs this year.

In SEC action last week, Florida beat Georgia 44-28. I said last week that Georgia’s injury-riddled defense would not be able to handle Florida; then that injured defense lost another starter due to a targeting call in the 2^nd quarter. Florida’s offense is for real; QB Kyle Trask threw 4 TD passes in the game and this is the 5^th straight game he has done that. This is the second loss for Georgia; it will take a miracle for them to remain relevant in the SEC let alone in terms of the CFP. It looks today as if the SEC Championship will come down to Alabama and Florida.

Mississippi St. beat Vandy 24-17. This was not exactly an offensive breakout for Mississippi State against a mediocre-at-best Vandy defense, but it was a win. Vandy won the stat battle gaining 478 yards on offense to only 224 yards for the Bulldogs. [Aside: Mississippi St. rushing stats for the day were 10 carries for minus-22 yards. Ugh!] Vandy turned the ball over 5 times in the game (3 INTs and 2 lost fumbles). Therein lies the story…

Over in the Big-12, Oklahoma St. beat K-State 20-18. The Cowboys are now 5-1; the Wildcats drop to 4-2 for the season. Oklahoma State won despite gaining just 261 yards on offense.

Oklahoma beat Kansas 62-9. Kansas is 0-7 and they are a mess. This game was 31-3 at halftime; the score was 62-3 until Kansas scored a TD with 5 seconds left in the game. In the passing game, the Jayhawks were notably inept:

14 of 35 for 151 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs

Iowa St. beat Baylor 38-31. It took a rally by the Cyclones to pull off this win after trailing at halftime 21-10. In the span of about 16 minutes of the second half, Iowa State scored 28 unanswered points to turn the game around. Iowa State is the “other Big-12 team” with only 1 loss on the year.

The PAC-12 got rolling last weekend and USC beat Arizona St 28-27. With 3 minutes to play, Arizona St led 27-14 but USC rallied to pull it out at the end.

Colorado beat UCLA 48-42. Neither defense chose to show up here; the two teams combined to rack up 1003 yards on offense. UCLA turned the ball over 4 times and were still in contention throughout the game; Colorado did not suffer a turnover.

Cincy beat Houston 38-10. Once again, the Cincy defense took a high scoring offense and held it down. The Bearcats gained 510 yards on offense to 282 for the Cougars. In the run game, Cincy had 38 carries for 342 yards (9 yards per carry).

There were several interesting results out of the ACC last week. UNC beat Duke 56-24. At halftime, the Tar Heels led 42-10 and cruised in the second half to this victory. The important stat here is the UNC ran the ball for 338 yards (7.2 yards per carry).

BC beat Syracuse 16-13. This was a nail-biter for BC against a 1-win Syracuse squad. The BC defense deserves a lot of credit here holding Syracuse to only 240 yards total offense for the day. BC had offensive troubles too gaining only 288 yards total offense. This was a classic “sandwich game” for BC. Two weeks ago, BC played Clemson to a close game; next week, Notre Dame comes for a visit.

Pitt beat Florida St 41-17. The game was close at halftime with the Panthers on top 24-17. Then the Pitt defense shut down the Seminoles for whole the second half. Florida St. rushing stats look reasonable at first – – 35 carries for 146 yards. In reality, the run game was marginal; 88 of those rushing yards came on a single TD run meaning the other 34 carries netted a total of 58 yards (1.7 yards per carry). Pitt also recorded 7 sacks in this game.

And in the biggest game of the day last weekend, Notre Dame beat Clemson 47-40 in Double OT. This win keeps Notre Dame “CFP relevant” and could set up a rematch of these teams in the ACC Championship Game down the road. An important stat from this game relates to the Irish run defense. Clemson RB, Travis Etienne, was held to 28 yards on 18 carries. Indeed, with Trevor Lawrence out of the game and in the COVID protocol, the Irish wanted to “stop the run”. Nevertheless, holding the Clemson run game to 35 yards on 32 carries is most impressive.

And way down on the college football totem pole, La-Monroe lost again last week to Georgia State 52-34. La-Monroe is now 0-8 but even a cursory glance at their record gives you an indication of why that record is on the books:

The Warhawks have given up 31 points or more in all 8 games.
The only time the La-Monroe offense scored more than 31 points, the defense yielded 52 points.
The Warhawks’ defense yields an average of 37.9 points per game.

La-Monroe gets a reprieve this week; As noted on the list above, its game against Arkansas State has been postponed until December 12^th.

College Games of Interest:

(Fri Nite) Iowa – 3.5 at Minnesota (58): Both teams have been disappointing this year; both teams had comfortable wins last week.

Arkansas at Florida – 17 (59.5): The Gators must avoid a let down here after a big win last week over Georgia. Arkansas has surprised a lot of folks this year, but they face a formidable task in controlling a Florida offense averaging 42.2 points per game.

Notre Dame – 13.5 at BC (50): Talk about the potential for a let-down game… BC has always played Notre Dame tough even though every year it looks as if BC is overmatched on paper. This is my college football Game of the Week.

Miami at Va Tech – 2.5 (68): The Hokies lost at home last week to Liberty and yet they are favored here. Hmmm…

Wisconsin – 4 at Michigan (53): The Badgers trounced Illinois in the opening game of the year and then had two games cancelled in the following weeks. Wisconsin football has been its own little hotspot of COVID-19 for the past couple of weeks and it is not certain if QB, Graham Mertz is going to be out of the protocol and available for the game. Meanwhile, Michigan is floundering with whomever they put on the field. Call this a “mystery game”.

Indiana – 7 at Michigan St. (52): Indiana is 3-0 so far this year and is ranked in the top Ten for the first time since 1969. As a reference point, Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon in 1969. The last time Indiana started a season with a 4-0 record was in 1990. As a reference point, the Gulf War took place in 1990.

Northwestern – 3 at Purdue (50.5): Both teams are undefeated so far this year. Purdue is 2-0 and has a point differential of only 11 points. Meanwhile, Northwestern has only allowed 36 points in its 3 wins.

Illinois at Rutgers – 7 (52): I mentioned above how Illinois was dominated last week by Minnesota. Adding insult to injury, they are now a full touchdown underdog to Rutgers. Normally, Rutgers is not a full touchdown favorite over anything other than Electoral College. I ran across in interesting stat:

The last time Rutgers was favored in a Big-10 conference game was in 2014.

Cal at Arizona St. – 3.5 (46): At one point, the entire Cal defensive line was in COVID-19 protocol isolation. Are they rested, ready and recovered?

Penn State – 3 at Nebraska (56): Two winless teams here… Something’s gotta give.

[You will note that I have not put any selections from the college football lineup this week in the Six-Pack. I did not forget to do that; I really do not like any of these numbers.]

NFL Commentary:

Unless you have been in a coma since the start of the NFL season, you must have heard folks talking about how Tom Brady and Drew Brees are trading back and forth the record for most TD passes in a career. Well, I ran across another “competition” involving Tom Brady and another active NFL QB that has gotten little to no mention. As of this morning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are tied for 3^rd place all-time in the number of times they have been sacked during their careers. Here are those “standings”:

Brett Favre – – sacked 525 times
John Elway – – sacked 516 times
Tom Brady – – sacked 513 times
Ben Roethlisberger – – sacked 513 times.

It is reasonable to expect both Brady and Roethlisberger to “catch up to” Elway by the end of the 2020 season. If either Brady or Roethlisberger has a masochistic streak and actually wants to “catch up to” Brett Favre on this list, they may need to sign up for another full season of NFL play. Stay tuned…

Having mentioned Ben Roethlisberger here, I can segue easily into a mention of Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Again, you must have heard at least a dozen times by now that the Steelers are off to the best start of a season in franchise history at 8-0. Well, that achieves something else as well; those 8 wins to start the season guarantee that the Steelers under Mike Tomlin will not have a losing season. Why is that a big deal?

Tomlin has been in Pittsburgh for 14 seasons and the Steelers have never had a losing record in that span.
Marty Schottenheimer is the only other head coach to begin his NFL coaching career with 14 consecutive seasons without a losing record.

If anyone wanted to propose a “Mount Rushmore” of active NFL coaches, I think the three coaches who would be on the monument without much argument would be Bill Belichick, Andy Reid and Mike Tomlin. You can argue among ourselves about who the other guy ought to be…

I must have heard this wrongly but just in case let me throw it out there. When Jim Nantz and Tony Romo were doing the Dallas/Pittsburgh game last week, I think I heard Romo praise Cowboy QB, Garrett Gilbert, saying – – this is a paraphrase – –

He’s poised back there. When he gets protection and his receivers get open, he gets the ball to them on time.

Remember, I am not sure that is what Tony Romo said but whatever I heard oor thought I heard made me do a double-take because if Joe Flabeetz gets protection from his OL and Joe Flabeetz’ receivers get open, the strong likelihood is that Joe Flabeetz is going to get the ball to the receiver on time. If that were not the case, he ought not be on the field as a starter in an NFL game. Gilbert played a fine game for his first start in the NFL, so I doubt that Tony Romo was giving him some sort of back-handed compliment. But just in case…

The Chiefs beat the Panthers 33-31. Conventional wisdom has it that the way to beat the Chiefs is to control the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes and company on the sidelines. Well the Panthers did just that last week; they had the ball for 38 of the 60 minutes in the game. Yet, it was not enough. The Panthers benefited from the return of Christian McCaffrey who scored 2 TDs and accounted for 151 yards from scrimmage. The Panthers did more than slow down the Chiefs’ running game (12 carries for 30 yards for the game) but Mahomes and his receivers found ways to get the win. Travis Kelce caught 10 passes for 159 yards.

The Falcons beat the Broncos 34-27. The Broncos trailed 27-6 and almost climbed out of that hole to send the game to OT. The other way to look at this is that the Falcons ran off to a 27-6 lead and almost blew another big lead. The Falcons have won 3 out of 4 games under interim coach Raheem Morris.

The Giants beat the WTFs 23-20. The Giants led at the half 20 -3 and hung on to win. WTF’s QB, Kyle Allen had to leave the game with a season-ending ankle injury and Alex Smith took over going 24 of 32 for 325 yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs – – two of those three INTs came in the last 5 minutes of the 4^th quarter Here are three fun facts:

Daniel Jones record as a starting QB is 5-16-0.
Four of his five wins have come over the WTFs.
He is 1-16-0 against the rest of the NFL

The Giants ran for 166 yards in this game against the front seven of the WTFs – – a unit that has 5 first round picks in the group. That is nominally the strength of the WTF’s defense, and it did not show up last week.

The Texans beat the Jags 27-25. The Jags had a shot at a 2-point conversion with 1:30 left to play to send the game to OT – – but it was not to be. Rookie QB Jake Luton played as well as you would expect for a rookie 6^th round pick to play (26-38 for 304 yards) ; you cannot pin this loss on him. The Jags’ defense gave up two long TDs in the game (passes of 77 yards and 57 yards). That was the difference.

The Vikes beat the Lions 34-20. The Vikes ran the ball for 275 yards here; Dalvin Cook got 206 of them by himself. Matthew Stafford had a sub-standard day going 23 of 32 for 211 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.

The Raiders beat the Chargers 31-26. A goal line stand by the Raiders sealed this win; the Chargers had three shots at the end zone from inside the 5 yardline and could not get the ball in the end zone. The only good news for Chargers’ fans is that they did not go off and lead the game by 20 points and come from ahead to lose the game. The Chargers outgained the Raiders 440 yards to 320 yards and controlled the ball 34:44 minutes to 25:16 – – and still lost. The Raiders averaged 6.2 yards per rushing attempt in the game (26 carries for 160 yards).

The football gods seem to be torturing the Chargers; maybe the football gods did not want them to leave San Diego; maybe the football gods are just being capricious. If you are a Charger fan, you are painfully aware of these stats; for the rest of you…:

In 2019, the Chargers were 2-9 in one-score games
In 2020, the Chargers are 1-6 in one-score games

The Bills beat the Seahawks 44-34. Pin this loss squarely on the Seahawks’ defense. Look at game results from around the NFL last week:

Packers score 34 points – – and win
Falcons score 34 points – – and win
Vikes score 34 points – – and win
Dolphins score 34 points – – and win
Chiefs score 33 points – – and win
Raiders score 31 points – – and win.
Seahawks score 34 points and lose by 10 points!

The Seahawks showed plenty of poor tackling and a lack of tight coverage in the secondary; Josh Allen and the Bills exploited that from start to finish. Allen finished the day with 415 yards passing and 4 TDs – – one running and three passing. The Bills’ defense sacked Russell Wilson 5 times and created 4 turnovers, but the Seahawks still scored 34 points in the game. Somehow, the Seahawks must figure out how to stop an offense that is slightly more adept than a middle-school JV squad.

The Ravens beat the Colts 24-10. Maybe the Ravens defense won this game; maybe Philip Rivers’ lackluster play lost this game. You make the call… Neither offense showed much last week. If these teams harbor hopes of advancing through the playoffs, they are going to have to figure out how to get their offenses to do something to help the defenses. I do not know if Rivers cannot throw the ball downfield or if the play calling is so focused on dink-and-dunk that there is no long-passing game. But that is what showed up on the field in this game – – no downfield passing game. Also, I do not know what happened to the Colts’ run game here. Philip Rivers threw the ball 43 times and Jonathan Taylor carried it 6 times. Really?

The Steelers beat the Cowboys 24-19. I said last week that this could be a let-down game for the Steelers; it was their 3^rd straight road game and they had just beaten two tough opponents coming into this game as a double-digit favorite over a team starting a QB in his first NFL game. And that is what the Steelers showed – – lack of energy for the first 25 minutes of the game. Garrett Gilbert looked particularly good starting for the Cowboys at QB, but Ezekiel Elliott looked like a journeyman RB here. He just does not look right to me…

The Dolphins beat the Cards 34-31. Last week, the Dolphins won because of Tua Tagovailoa and not despite him as had been the case two weeks ago. Tua led a 4^th quarter comeback from 10 points down to win this game. The Dolphins’ defense also rose to the 4^th quarter occasion shutting out the Cards for the final 17 and a half minutes in the game. The Dolphins have won 5 of their last 6 games.

The Saints beat the Bucs 38-3. The game was as lopsided as the score indicates. The Bucs did just about nothing well in any phase of the game. The Bucs abandoned the run in the 1^st quarter of this game and only ran the ball 4 times in the game. The stats say 5 times but one of those times was a kneel down at the end of the game to make it mercifully end. Saints have now won 5 in a row and the rest of their schedule is soft. Other than a game against the Chiefs, they do not play another team that has a winning record as of this morning.

The Pats beat the Jets 30-27. For a game that ended with a field goal as time expired, this was not exciting. Both teams showed significant flaws. Seemingly good defensive plays and defensive stands always seemed tainted by the fact that neither offense was consistently good. I am not a scout nor am I a sports kinesiologist, but it sure looks to me as if Cam Newton still has a shoulder “problem”. On the few times he threw the ball downfield more than 10-12 yards, he looked to me to be “short-arming” the throw. As someone who has a chronic shoulder injury, I know what short arming is and what it does, and it looks as if Newton is throwing the football that way.

Last night, the Colts went to Tennessee and beat the Titans 34-17. The Titans had difficulty moving the ball on the Colts’ defense but that is not why the Titans lost the game. The Colts ran up 430 yards of total offense on a Titans’ defense that was pushed around far too often. On top of that the Titans’ special teams were less than proficient:

Shanked punt set up a Colts TD drive of only 27 yards
Punt blocked and returned for a Colts’ TD on the next possession.
Missed field goal

NFL Games:

The four teams enjoying a BYE Week are:

Chiefs get a week off to prepare for an important division game against the Raiders next week.
Cowboys get a week off to give Garrett Gilbert time to learn the names of his receivers.
Falcons get a week off and are assured that they will not blow a double-digit lead this weekend.
Jets get a week off to ponder why all of this is happening to them.

Cincy at Pittsburgh – 10.5 (49): There is a question hanging around out there about Ben Roethlisberger’s availability for the game since he was in contact with another player who tested positive for COVID-19. The fact that the line has not moved significantly from its opening for the week indicates to me that Roethlisberger will play. If he has not practiced, can he be as effective as usual? We shall see. If the Steelers have to play Mason Rudolph at QB, that line is fat. I am not ready to take a real plunge and take the Bengals on the Money Line (+375 this morning) but I think Joe Burrow and company can keep this inside the number. I’ll take the Bengals plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Washington at Detroit – 3.5 (46.5): The Detroit Lions are favored by more than a field goal against another team comprised of players who also get paid to play football. Really? These are two bad teams; in a perfect world neither would get a win here. Be thankful if your viewing area is not in or around DC or Detroit; no other viewing area is going to select this game from the early NFL menu. This is your Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Houston at Cleveland – 3.5 (51): The Total Line opened this week at 55.5 points. Why the drop? The best I can figure is that people are looking at weather.com and noticing that the forecast for Sunday is 80% chance of rain with winds at 31 miles per hour. If that forecast is even close to correct, these teams could be hard-pressed to score; neither team has a dominant ground attack unless the Browns get Nick Chubb back in action and he plays up to his skill level. I will go with the weatherman here; I’ll take the game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Jax at Green Bay – 13.5 (51): The Total Line here also opened the week at 55.5 points and seems to have dropped for the same reason as above in the Texans/Browns game. Weather.com says that Sunday in Green Bay has an 80% chance of rain with a high temperature of 40 degrees with winds at 25 miles per hour. I would obviously prefer to have Aaron Rodgers on my side of a selection than either Jake Luton or Gardner Minshew under normal circumstances; under adverse circumstances, that preference only increases. However, I am not going to be laying almost two full TDs here; I will however take the game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Philly – 3 at Giants (44): These are not powerhouse teams, but it is a division game, and it does mean plenty to the Eagles who lead the NFC East at the moment. Those factors rule it out of the Dog-Breath category. There are conflicting trends at work here:

Giants are 3-11 in their last 14 games at home straight up.
Giants are 3-11 in their last 14 games at home against the spread.
Eagles are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus the Giants – – but – –
Eagles are 5-6 in their last 11 games versus the Giants against the spread.

I think the Eagles are the better team; I like them to win and cover here despite the last entry in that list above; put it in the Six-Pack.

Tampa – 5.5 at Carolina (50.5) The Total Line here opened the week at 47 points and has risen slowly as the week went along. I cannot concoct a weather-related reason for that. The Panthers have played good opponents very tough this year and they have performed much better than I thought they would back in August. However, this game could turn into a rout if Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offensive folks decide to show the world that they are not nearly as bad as they looked on national TV last week. No selection here; I’ll pass…

Denver at Las Vegas – 4 (51): The Raiders are squarely in the AFC playoff race at 5-3; the Broncos are not out of the playoff race – – but they have a steep hill to climb with a current record of 3-5. It is too early to say this game is critical to the Raiders, but it is close to that. One thing the Raiders cannot allow to happen is that they play lethargically here as they look ahead to next week and a meeting with the Chiefs. Here is my vision for the game:

Raiders jump out to an early lead and build it to at least 17 points
Broncos wait until late in the 3^rd quarter to come to life
Broncos rally furiously in 4^th quarter to make it close – – but still lose the game

With all that scoring frenzy ongoing, I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Buffalo at Arizona – 2.5 (56.5) Here is your Game of the Week; the Total Line opened at 49 points and has risen by more than a touchdown’s worth of points since then. Later on, there is a game matching two rookie QBs who have been impressive so far; this one matches a pair of young – but not rookie – QBs who have been more than impressive so far in 2020. This game has “shootout” written all over it; it should be fun to watch.

Seattle at Rams – 2 (53.5): The Seahawks lead the Rams in the NFC West by a game [Aside: Remember the Cards are in the mix here with the same record as the Rams.] This game is important in terms of the NFC West outcome for next January. The Seahawks have given up 243 points this year; to put that in perspective, that is 3 points more than the Lions have given up this season – – and the Lions stink. It is not clear to me how the Seahawks will stop the Rams’ offense. At the same time, the Seahawks have scored 274 points this year – – almost 35 points per game. The Rams have a good defense, but the Seahawks seem to be able to score on anyone. I see lots of big plays in this one; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

SF at New Orleans – 10.5 (48.5) There has been lots of line movement here. The spread opened at 6.5 points and the Total Line was 53.5 points. The Niners have an injury list beyond what is normal. I would have taken the Saints if the spread had stayed where it was set but I am not going to lay two scores with that hook on top of the 10 points.

(Sun Nite) Baltimore – 7 at New England (43.5): The outcome of this game depends on the Pats’ defense because the Ravens’ defense is going to hold the Pats under 20 points in the game. I will not be surprised to see Jarrett Stidham at QB for the Pats late in this game.

Chargers at Dolphins – 1 (48.5): Here are two rookie QBs who are lighting it up this year playing one against the other. The oddsmaker set the spread so that this would turn out as a one-score game and we saw above what happens to the Chargers in one-score games.

(Mon Nite) Minnesota – 2.5 at Chicago (43.5): This game is intriguing; the spread opened with the Bears as 2.5-point favorites and then it shifted to the Vikes being favored by the same number. There are conflicting signals here:

Bears are home underdogs and have the better defense. Usually a good selection criterion.
Bears have lost 3 games in a row. Usually a bad selection criterion
Vikes have won 2 games in a row – including a win over the Packers who are better than the Bears. Usually a good selection criterion
Vikes have Kirk Cousins at QB in a “Prime Time Game”. Usually a bad selection criterion. [Kirk Cousins in 0-9 in games on Monday Night Football.]

Dalvin Cook has been a monster since coming back from an injury earlier this year. The Bears’ defense will key on stopping him first and putting the ball in Cousins’ hands. Therein lies the key to the game because the Bears cannot rely on their offense to light up the scoreboard against anyone.

Finally, here is an observation by Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times regarding a ludicrous incident in a recent NFL game:

“The NFL suspended Bears receiver Javon Wims for two games for cheap-shotting the Saints’ C.J. Gardner-Johnson — one game for the blows and, presumably, another game for being stupid enough to repeatedly punch a guy’s helmet.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Kudos To The President of Notre Dame

Last weekend, Notre Dame beat Clemson in a football game that went into Double OT. After that game, students stormed the field in celebration – – and in violation of campus regulations about gatherings in these days of COVID-19. Many folks pointed to this behavior as partial confirmation that young folks cannot always be expected to behave responsibly and with long-term judgment. Other social pundits suggested that this demonstration showed that there should not be any problem with opening up stadiums and arenas to fans for sporting events – – even in these days of COVID-19. While I do not completely buy into either extreme interpretation of that display of emotion last weekend, I am more inclined toward the former than the latter.

The President of Notre Dame – The Rev. John Jenkins who has himself previously tested positive for COVID-19 – took the situation for what it was and then acted. A former colleague once described “leadership” in this way:

“Leadership is when you act positively and forcefully to do what you know to be right.”

If you happen to agree with my former colleague – as I do – then Rev. Jenkins demonstrated leadership this week. Basically, he sent a letter to every student at Notre Dame. He said that he was disappointed by their behavior which violated campus regulations and that he has heard from local health officials that some of the students have been less than fastidious in adhering to those COVID-19 protocols during the semester. Faced with that situation – and in light of his contracting the virus in a venue where he was not fully attentive to common sense COVID-19 protocols – Rev. Jenkins acted to support what he knows to be right.

Virus testing for students is now to be expanded – – and it will be mandatory. The penalty for not being tested is that students will not be allowed to register for Spring classes nor will they be able to access their transcripts. He presents a simple choice for students and sets forth a clear and strict consequence for failure to comply.
Moreover, students are not to leave the campus in South Bend to go home for the holidays until they have been tested AND have gotten the results back on those tests. The same sanction applies here; violate this rule and the student records will be frozen.
Finally, there are rules in place about social gatherings involving students on campus and off-campus. Rev. Jenkins has declared a zero-tolerance policy for violations of those rules and protocols saying that hosts of such event will face “severe sanctions”.

I mentioned that Rev. Jenkins has himself tested positive for COVID-19. He was one of the people in attendance in the White House Rose Garden ceremony where Justice Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in as a Supreme Court Justice. Put aside any sociopolitical views for a moment; Justice Barrett was a Summa Cum Laude graduate of Notre Dame’s law school and Justice Barrett has been on the faculty of the Notre Dame law school for almost 20 years. Rev. Jenkins’ presence at that swearing in ceremony was proper and respectful; he was there at least in part to represent Notre Dame University – the institution that he heads.

What puts Rev. Jenkins in a “dicey situation” is that it appears that he contracted the coronavirus at that “super-spreader event” where he was photographed “mask-less and shaking hands” with others in attendance. It is easy to argue that Rev. Jenkins should have known better and that he was not “leading by example” in that situation. He has taken his lumps in the court of public opinion on that matter and now I think it is time to recognize that he knows what is right and he knows that what he did was wrong. Moreover, he is not going to retreat from doing the right thing now because it might bring more embarrassment to him. Metaphorically, he is willing to pick the scab off that previous injury because there is an underlying infection that needs treatment now.

I could accuse Rev. Jenkins of hypocrisy here, but I choose not to do that. I think he did the wrong thing in the White House Rose Garden, recognized his mistake and moved forward in a positive direction. Kudos to Rev. Jenkins…

Let me switch gears here and talk about one of Notre Dame’s football rivals – – the University of Michigan. The football program there and the athletic department/administration have a situation that seems balanced on a knife edge. Consider:

Jim Harbaugh has been the coach there for five-and-a-half years and his contract expires at the end of the 2021 season.
He – and the Wolverines by extension – will face a recruiting disadvantage this year and possibly next year if Harbaugh is a lame duck coach without a contract extension.
A contract extension will not come cheap to the school and in these times of COVID-19, even the big-time football programs are not flush with cash.
Moreover, Michigan right now is an embarrassing 1-2 with losses to rival Michigan State (who has already lost to Rutgers and gotten blown away by Iowa) and to Indiana (a team that last beat Michigan in 1987). Selling a contract extension of any kind – let alone an expensive one – in these circumstances would not be easy.
During Harbaugh’s time at Michigan, the Wolverines have gone 3-3 against rival Michigan State and have gone 0-5 against Ohio State. Those results might not motivate some deep-pocketed alums to chip in to extend the coach.

If there is a fairy tale solution to that dicey situation in Ann Arbor, it would be for the NY Jets to fire Adam Gase at the end of this year (highly likely) and to come calling for Harbaugh to be the guy to rebuild the Jets franchise in the Meadowlands. Just tossing it out there…

Finally, here is an item from Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle regarding sports and the coronavirus:

“Scientists and medical experts say masks are effective for slowing the spread of the coronavirus, but tinfoil hats are not. Still, many sports figures prefer the hats.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

The Masters And The EPL

This weekend the sporting world will experience something difficult to understand logically. We will witness an event that bills itself as “A tradition unlike any other…” The problem with 2020 is that this is the first time in its history that The Masters has been played in the Autumn as opposed to the Spring. I have difficulty getting my mind around anything that is happening for the first time and yet calls itself “a tradition”.

There will be a few modifications regarding the tournament this weekend that may be more subtle than simply the placement on the calendar:

As a result of the placement on the calendar, there will be no azaleas in bloom. Hence, there will be no references to “Spring” and “rebirth” and “the PGA tournament entering its serious season”.
As a result of the coronavirus, there will be no spectators – – pardon me, there will be no patrons.
As a result of the coronavirus, a former Masters champion, Sergio Garcia, has had to withdraw this year.

In addition to and as a result of the placement on the calendar and related to the astronomical reality of November in the Northern Hemisphere, it is going to make the daily rounds finish much earlier. Back in April, thanks to being several weeks after the vernal equinox when days get longer and with the benefit of Daylight Saving Time, sunset in Augusta, GA was close to 8:00 PM. Players could – if necessary – continue to play until 6:30 or 7:00 PM. This year, the tournament is going to be about 7 weeks on the downside of the autumnal equinox and without the benefit of Daylight Saving Time. Sunset in Augusta, GA this weekend will be at 5:27 PM. Players will not be able to play much beyond 5:15 PM.

I cannot know for sure, but I believe this astronomical reality is behind a format change in The Masters for 2020. Normally, the “cut line” on Friday evening to determine which golfers may continue to play over the weekend has been to allow any player within ten strokes of the leader to continue to play. That could make for a crowded field over the weekend and could allow sunset to “interfere with the tournament”. So, in 2020, the “cut line” will be the fifty golfers with the lowest scores in the first two rounds – – no matter how close or how far they are from the leader.

Moving on from The Masters, let me turn to the English Premier League where a controversy is brewing. Back in the summer, the EPL returned to the pitch to complete its season after a hiatus thanks to the coronavirus. When it did that, it recognized that some players may not have been in perfect condition due to the layoff and the EPL expanded the substitution rule to allow 5 substitutions per game as opposed to the normal 3 substitutions per game. Unless I missed it entirely, there was no revolt among the people in the UK over that change nor were there any dangerous geopolitical implications related to that change.

The new season has begun. Teams have played 7 or 8 games; Leicester City, Tottenham and Liverpool sit atop the EPL Table while Sheffield, Burnley and West Brom Albion are bringing up the rear. There is no great shock in those placements early in the season. The issue is that several teams have multiple players with ‘muscle injuries” and one of the hypotheses for the occurrence of these ‘muscle injuries” is the shortened off-season between filling out last year’s EPL Table and the start of this season. I have no idea if that is a proper diagnosis and it really does not matter; the issue is that several teams have proposed that the EPL go back to the “5 substitutions” rule used last summer.

Support and opposition to the proposed rule change devolve in very predictable ways:

The Professional Footballers Association – the union that represents players in the EPL – is in favor of expanding the substitution rule from 3 to 5.
Managers of the “big clubs” – the ones with the deepest pickets – are in favor of expanding the substitution rule from 3 to 5. Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal for example have all declared their support for such a change.
Managers of the ‘little clubs” – the ones with not so deep pockets – do not favor expanding the substitution rule from 3 to 5. Sheffield has specifically come out publicly against the proposed change saying it would give an even larger competitive advantage to the “rich teams” who can better afford to expand their benches.

Here is the rub. The EPL rules require a vote of 14 of the 20 teams in the EPL to make the change. There have already been two votes on this issue this year and both votes have been “relatively conclusively in favor of three substitutions.” That is the phraseology used by the CEO of the English Premier League in a discussion with the Government’s Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee and if that remains the forum in which the controversy will be decided, it looks as if the “big guys” are not going to get their way.

I mention this because there is another interesting statement from the EPL’s CEO to members of that Select Committee:

“Our job is to make sure we create a calendar which fits with our broadcast commitments, we’ve made very clear broadcast commitments, and try to do our best – as we always do – to work with clubs to create a fixture calendar that has player welfare at its core … We can’t always do everything that everybody wants us to do but where there’s flexibility we try to help.”

Here you have an example of someone akin to a “Commissioner” in US sports exhibiting transparency and candor. The league needs to fit a schedule to the needs of the “broadcast partners” because those are the people who are paying the freight for the EPL as a whole. This is why rich people buy EPL teams; this is why players in the EPL earn the salaries that they do. Somewhere in the cosmos, Howard Cosell is smiling and saying that this guy tells it like it is.

Finally, since part of today’s rant focused on The Masters, let me present here the definition of golf from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Golf: A so-called sport whose strolling, lackadaisical participants are so unaccustomed to the consequences of physical exertion that all eighteen of their playing areas include a place to wash their balls.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

NBA Musings Today …

It appears that a bit of clarity regarding the 2020/2021 NBA season has begun to emerge. The league and the players’ union have agreed to begin the new season on December 22^nd and the next season will be 72 games in length instead of the normal – prior to the last season – 82 games. The NBA Draft will happen on November 18^th and training camps will open on December 1^st. Fans with nothing better to do on Christmas Day after the presents are opened and before Christmas Dinner can rest assured that they will have NBA basketball to watch on TV.

This is not to say that the NBA will be returning to normal and that the only noticeable difference between next season and years past is the number of games in the season. For example, reports indicate that the NBA would like to limit travel for health/safety reasons and to allow for player recovery time during the compressed schedule. Yes, there will be fewer games – – but there is also a shorter time from season start (12/22/20) to the end of next season (5/16/21). [Aside: Reduced travel also means reduced travel costs for teams; after the “revenue issues” in the 2020 season, do not ignore that aspect of the allure of reduced travel.] I doubt the league would try this, but here is a potential way to achieve that end:

Eliminate inter-conference games. That gives teams much shorter distances to travel and it sets up an interesting dynamic for the playoffs wherein the teams in the finals will not have played each other prior to that series. [Aside: If you want to get really crazy, once you winnow down the playoff teams to four, play “first place East” against “second place West” and vice-versa.]

There is another economic question hanging out there to be resolved by negotiation. It has to do with the salary cap and the luxury tax. When the formulae for calculating those threshold numbers were negotiated and devised, no one ever built in any sort of provision for what happens in a season where revenues declined significantly. The cap and the luxury tax numbers are simply percentages of what is called “basketball-related income” and the sticking points in all the previous negotiations have been over what percentage of that income should flow to the players and what should stay in the pockets of the owners. Last year, the salary cap was $109M; reports say that the salary cap next year – – if there is no cap modification – – could be as low as $88M. For those of you keeping score at home, that would be a 19.3% drop.

If the league applied the formula directly, this year’s free agent crop would be seriously disadvantaged since most teams would be near or over the cap before signing any free agents; that would put teams in “luxury tax territory” meaning any new signees would cost even more than the figures contained in their contracts. There is going to have to be give-and-take on both sides of the table and it is going to have to happen toute de suite because the target date for the start of the free agency season is November 19^th or 10 days from now.

One other thorny area is what to do with the vagabonds known as the Toronto Raptors. As of this morning, there is a pesky little problem caused by the Government of Canada. That pesky problem makes complete sense so it is not likely to be swept away just because it is inconvenient to the NBA and the fact that the problem is created by the Government of Canada means that it cannot be resolved by NBA negotiations with the NBPA. Here is the deal:

As of this morning, anyone arriving in Canada from another country must quarantine for 14 days as a measure to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

Eventually, that restriction will be lifted – – but I do not think it would be a good bet to assume that it will be lifted by December 22^nd when the NBA season is to begin. Ergo, what does the league do with the Raptors?

I mentioned the revenue losses for the NBA last year that will lead to salary cap crunches this year without some sort of negotiated way out of the jungle but I do not want to leave the impression that once those negotiations are finished everything is hunky-dory on the economic front. Front Office Sports reported the following economic losses by the NBA in the interrupted season that just ended; they estimate the NBA saw a reduction of $1.5B in revenue last season and here were the major components of that reduction:

$800M lost in arena revenues due to lack of fans
$400M lost in sponsorship deals and merchandise sales
$200M lost due to “tensions with China”.

Let me stipulate that I have no reason to doubt the numbers cited above nor am I privy to any “inside information” regarding league revenues. With that caveat in mind, it is not clear to me how the NBA is going to eliminate those “reduction factors” in the upcoming season.

First, I cannot think of any NBA city that is going to allow the league to pack 20,000 people into an indoor arena for 3 hours to watch a basketball game any time soon. Remember, last season, the NBA played to normal fan attendance from November until mid-March meaning that teams took in about 75-80% of regular season gate revenue before the shut-down occurred. There may be some cities that will allow greatly reduced attendance at games, but it is not clear to me how that $800M in “lost arena revenues” will be recouped.

Second, at least some of the revenue taken in from sponsorships and from merchandise sales depends on factors outside the control of the league. Local or regional companies that may want to sponsor some aspect of NBA games or possibly purchase advertising banners in arenas will need to be financially able to justify that expenditure. Fans who want to buy official league-branded merchandise need to have discretionary income in their accounts to do so. Those are factors determined by the economy at large and not with the NBA and its schedule accommodations to COVID-19.

Third, the NBA ‘s “tensions with China” exist in a totally different dimension than the one that I live in. It just may be that those “tensions with China” exist in a totally different dimension than the one NBA players and execs live in too. That revenue loss factor may be cured overnight, or it may not be cured for a decade or so. C’est la guerre…

Finally, since I mentioned China in passing today, let me close with this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Great Wall of China: A remarkable testament to what several million slaves can accomplish when an emperor puts his mind to it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Football Friday 11/6/20

Over the last few days, election officials around the country have gone to great lengths to align themselves with “transparency” as they tabulate votes and make the results known to the public. Similarly, I have a dedication to transparency here in Curmudgeon Central.

I declare that I am fully committed to producing Football Friday whenever possible.

So, let me begin this week with a review of last week’s Six-Pack:

College: 2-1-0
NFL: 0-3-0
Combined: 2-4-0

Here are the Six-Pack results since the beginning of the football season:

College: 8-12-1
NFL: 13-13-1
Combined: 21-25-2

College Commentary:

Natural selection seeks to explain the adaptation of life forms to the habitat they populate. Charles Darwin observed different beak shapes for varieties of finches in the Galapagos Islands where each beak shape was optimally efficient for opening the prevalent seeds on the various islands. Much less dramatically, football coaches evolve too. They do not modify their “beak shape” but they modify their outlook about the game.

Take Nick Saban as an example. If you go looking, you will find a time when Nick Saban was a “defense-first” coach and that he thought the idea of college football moving toward spread formations and hurry-up offenses was not good for the game nor was it good for the health and safety of the players. That was then; this is now.

Alabama is still a good defensive team; they may not be the best in the country, but they are certainly better than most. However, it is on offense that Nick Saban’s team has shown significant change. So far in 2020, Alabama averages:

47.2 points per game
380 yards passing per game
172 yards rushing per game
552 yards total offense per game

Not bad for a defense-first team…

Even before the calendar flipped into November, there were no Big-12 teams left undefeated. There were two of them as of last Saturday morning and both lost on Saturday afternoon.

Three teams (Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State) have 1 loss.
Three teams (Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia) have two losses.

If the Big-12 is going to offer up a serious candidate for the CFP Selection Committee to consider, it will surely come from those teams with only 1 loss. The problem is that only Oklahoma State can point to the fact that its loss came at the hands of a team that most fans have heard about. Iowa State lost its opening game to La-Lafayette; K-State lost its opening game to Arkansas State. Oklahoma State’s loss was at the hands of Texas; the Longhorns are not an elite team – – but most fans would assert that they know more about Texas than either La-Lafayette or Arkansas State or both.

There is a constant in the Big-12 this year; Kansas stinks. The Jayhawks are 0-6 which is bad on its face. In addition, 4 of those 6 losses have been by 30 points or more. There are not enough plastic surgeons in the world to put a good face on that record. This week Kansas will visit Oklahoma and they are currently 38-point underdogs. The Les Miles Era at Kansas is not shaping up very well so far…

In looking at the Big-12 conference schedule, I got off on a tangent and started to look ahead to big games coming over the rest of the season. What I found was that this week is prime real estate for important games; there are five of them. Looking at this weekend:

BYU/Boise St. Tonight: BYU is undefeated so far; Boise St. just started its Mountain West Conference season.
Florida/Georgia Tomorrow: Winner here takes control of the SEC East.
Clemson/Notre Dame Tomorrow: Both teams are undefeated and ranked in the Top 5.
Oklahoma State/ K-State Tomorrow: Two of the three Big-12 teams with only 1 loss.
Cincy/Houston: Tomorrow: Houston averages 37 points per game and has only 1 loss; Cincy is undefeated; its defense only allows 12 points per game and the Bearcats have an eye on a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.

Here are some other big games scheduled for later on:

Alabama/LSU Nov 14
Oklahoma St/Oklahoma Nov 21: Game is always one to watch and it might be a key game to determine who plays in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Auburn/Alabama Nov 28: Always an important college football game.
Ohio St/Michigan: Dec 12: Always an interesting college football game even when it is not all that important.

West Virginia beat K-State 37-10. So much for the Wildcats being the best team in the Big-12… Yes, West Virginia is always a tough out at home, but this was not a contest. K-State was shut out in the second half, gained only 221 yards (41 on the ground) and gave up 485 yards of offense.

Texas beat Oklahoma St. 41-34 in OT. Ok. St had 530 yards on offense and Texas had 287. Texas only converted 2 of 15 third down situations; Texas was penalized 13 times for 142 yards – – and they won the game. Four turnovers by Ok. St. made that possible. Three times Texas started a drive in the Red Zone thanks to those turnovers. Texas also got a kickoff return for a TD in the game.

Alabama beat Mississippi State 41-0. It was not nearly that close.

Georgia beat Kentucky 14-3. I said last week this could be a “look-ahead game” for the Dawgs. Kentucky held Georgia to 131 yards passing and intercepted two of Georgia’s pass attempts. The Georgia defense is elite – – but the offense is anemic.

Auburn beat LSU 48-11. The game was 21-3 at the half and 42-3 after 3 quarters. “Bad LSU” showed up last week; “Good LSU” stayed home in Baton Rouge…

Clemson beat BC 34-28. The stats for this game are strange. Clemson outgained BC by 173 yards; usually that means a bigger win than 6 points. Clemson RB, Travis Etienne had 224 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs; no one on BC even came close to that. BC won the turnover battle 1-0 but that still does not explain the close score. BC scored on a 99-yard scoop-and-score and a miracle catch in the end zone for another TD in first half. Clemson trailed 28-10 with 1 minute to go in the first half. Clemson remains unbeaten – – but they got a scare here without Trevor Lawrence in the game.

Notre Dame beat Ga Tech 31-13. This week the Irish have Clemson come to visit in South Bend and Trevor Lawrence is not going to be the QB in that game. This is huge spot for Notre Dame.

Virginia beat UNC 44-41. Last week, I said that the small spread with UNC as the favorite surprised me; well, the outcome surprised me even more. The Tar Heels won the stat battle because they were behind for most of the game and were throwing the ball a lot. Virginia’s attack was balanced gaining 210 yards on the ground and 208 yards in the air.

Michigan St. beat Michigan 27-24. This is a week after the Spartans lost to Rutgers and Michigan dominated Minnesota. This result was no fluke; the stats were even. One difference is that Michigan gave Michigan St. 5 first downs on penalties in the game. Michigan was a 24.5-point favorite at kickoff and the game was in Ann Arbor. This is a terrible loss for the Wolverines. Jim Harbaugh is in his sixth year at Michigan. His record against Michigan St. is 3-3 and his record against Ohio State is 0-5. He was not hired and paid the huge bucks to lose to those two schools.

Ohio State beat Penn State 38-25. Ohio St. QB, Justin Fields is really good. He was 28-34 for 315 yards and 4 TDs with 0 INTs. The Buckeyes converted 10 of 18 third-down tries and 2 of 3 fourth-down tries in the game. I know it is early, but it sure seems to me as if Ohio State is the class of the Big-10 with a large gap between the Buckeyes and whoever is #2. Consider this amazing stat for Ohio State QB, Justin Fields:

After 2 games, Justin Fields has thrown 6 TDs and 7 incompletions – – not interceptions, incompletions!

Indiana beat Rutgers 37-21. Maybe Indiana is for real? Maybe Rutgers got a one-time pass from the football gods in Week 1 blowing out Michigan State? Three turnovers in this game did not help the Rutgers cause.

Maryland beat Minnesota 45-44 in OT. The Gophers are 0-2 to start the season; some folks thought that Minnesota was the class of the Big-10 West. A 25-point loss to Michigan in Week 1 followed by a loss to Maryland makes me skeptical about those prognostications.

Cincy beat Memphis 49-10. Memphis had been scoring aplenty this year and the Cincy defense took care of that shutting out Memphis in the second half. Moreover, Memphis was held to 5 yards rushing for the game. Memphis had scored 154 points in its previous 4 games this year (38.5 points per game).

Rice beat So. Mississippi 30-6. I wrote last week about how So. Miss was on their 3^rd head coach of the year. Well, the new regime did not provide much of a boost last week. On the bright side, Coach #3 has not resigned yet.

Georgia Tech has lost its last 3 games by a combined score of 152-47. They have a BYE Week this week; they probably need one…

For the record, La-Monroe is the only team in the country with an 0-7 record. This week, they will be 20-point underdogs in their game at Georgia State.

College Games of Interest:

(Fri Nite) BYU – 3 at Boise St. (61): BYU is scoring 44.4 points per game and yielding only 13.4 points per game. Boise State is probably the toughest team on the schedule of this independent, so this is an interesting game. If you get a chance to see BYU and its QB Zack Wilson, do so. I think Wilson will be a high draft pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

Houston at Cincy – 13.5 (54.5): The spread opened with Cincy as a 10.5-point favorite and has been expanding all week. Additionally, the Total Line opened at 58.5 and has been contracting.

Michigan – 3 at Indiana (54): The Hoosiers squeaked by Penn State in Week 1 and then beat Rutgers last week. They are undefeated – – but are they good? Michigan looked powerful against Minnesota in Week 1 and then wet the bed last week against Michigan State (see above). Are they any good?

Michigan St. at Iowa – 6.5 (45.5): The most interesting thing here is the Total Line which opened the week at 56.5 and has collapsed by eleven points. That does not happen often.

Oklahoma St. – 12.5 at Kansas St. (45): As noted above, this is a big game in the Big-12. I think these two teams will be able to move the ball on each other, so I think the Total Line is easily within reach. K-State scores 31 points per game and Ok. St. scores 29.6 points per game. I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Nebraska at Northwestern – 4 (54): Northwestern is one of the undefeated teams in the Big-10. Nebraska leads the conference in being annoying.

Florida at Georgia – 3.5 (52.5): The winner of this game is in the catbird’s seat in the SEC East. Georgia’s top-shelf defense is missing 3 starters; Georgia’s offense may be hobbled by the good health of QB Stetson Bennett who has underperformed this year. Last week he only threw 14 passes in the game – and 2 of them were interceptions. I think Florida has too many advantages in this game; I’ll take Florida plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Vandy at Mississippi St. – 19.5 (44): The Air Raid offense has sputtered mightily the last 3 weeks scoring 16 points in those 3 games. Vandy is a mess; if the Air Raid offense cannot score in this game, there could be unrest in Starkville. Vandy ranks 99^th (out of 115 teams) in the country in pass defense giving up an average of 292.8 yards per game.

Clemson – 4 at Notre Dame (50): If Clemson loses without Trevor Lawrence, they will likely still get the benefit of the doubt by pollsters down the line. If Notre Dame loses at home without having to face Trevor Lawrence, I believe their hopes of being in the CFP will be seriously damaged. In fact, Notre Dame’s path to the CFP- – if they lose here – – may require them to win the ACC Championship Game over Clemson in mid-December with Trevor Lawrence on the field.

UMass at Marshall – 44.5 (55): Independent UMass rescinded their season cancellation and came back for games like this?

NFL Commentary:

Figuratively speaking, LB, Avery Williamson, was on death row and just got a “pardon from the governor”. What actually happened was that Williamson was traded from the Jets (NFL death row so to speak since it is the only winless team in the league) to the Steelers (the only undefeated team in the league). The Steelers need linebacker depth in the wake of a season ending injury to Devin Bush. For that reason, the trade seems lopsided to me:

Steelers get Williamson plus the Jets 7^th round pick in 2022
Jets get Steelers 5^th round pick in 2022
Bottom Line: Jets move up 40-50 slots in back end of the 2022 draft and Steelers get linebacker depth they need.

At one point in the Star Wars movie, Darth Vader declares that “The Force is strong in this one”. I believe that in real life:

The Force of Habit is strong in football coaches.

Pay attention to coaches on the sideline who are wearing masks and calling in plays – – offense or defense – – over the headset. Those mask-wearing coaches – – kudos to them for doing that – – also take their playsheets and cover their faces with the playsheets as the call goes in. That is “Force of Habit”.

Memo to Mask-Wearing Coaches: Lip-reading through the mask you have on is sufficiently difficult for opposing coaches and players without having to add the extra layer of protection provided by the playsheet.

Antonio Brown has served his NFL suspension and has been signed by the Tampa Bay Bucs. Reports say he could be activated for this week’s games. Bob Molinaro of the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot offered this cogent observation on that situation:

“Fact check: Now that the troublesome Antonio Brown is joining Tom Brady’s Bucs, people need to stop saying that everybody deserves a second chance. By rough estimate, this is Brown’s fourth.”

Before going to last week’s happenings, let me ask a serious question and then provide one answer to it:

Question: Which team – the Chargers or the Falcons – has put together the more frustrating season in 2020?
The Chargers have lost 3 games where they led by 17 points or more during the game.
The Falcons have lost 2 games where they led by 16 points during the game and they have lost 2 games on the final play of the game.
Answer: We shall find out on December 13^th. On that day, the Falcons will make their way to Los Angeles to play the Chargers.

The Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17. Tua Tagovailoa started the game and the Dolphins won but the win was despite Tua’s performance. Here is his stat line:

12 of 22 for 93 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs
2 carries for 0 yards

The Dolphins got TDs from a 78-yard “Scoop-and-Score” and an 88-yard punt return in the span of a minute-and-a-half in the second quarter. In the second half, the Dolphins’ defense played bend-not-break style and won the game. The Rams had the ball for more than 36 minutes here and won the stat battle 417 yards of offense to 145 yards offense for the Dolphins. The Rams turned the ball over 4 times in the game. This was a nice win for the Dolphins putting them at 4-3 for the season but will that mode of play post many more wins in the future?

The Bengals beat the Titans 31-20. Joe Burrow was efficient and effective in the game; the Titans did not sack him even once in the game. Equally important is the fact that the Bengals’ defense kept Derrick Henry from dominating the game with his running; the Bengals had the ball for almost 36 minutes. There was only one turnover in the game, but it was a timely one by the Bengals’ defense; they intercepted Ryan Tannehill when the Titans had marched to the Red Zone.

The Vikes beat the Packers 28-22. Dalvin Cook simply ran wild in this game scoring all four of the Vikes’ TDs. He carried the ball 30 times for 163 yards, and he caught 2 passes for another 63 yards. The Packers outgained the Vikes for the day but the result on the scoreboard is what matters. The Packers’ defense allowed the Vikes to gain 5.1 yards per rush attempt. Just to clarify, that is not good…

The Colts beat the Lions 41-21. The Colts’ defense sacked Matthew Stafford 5 times and contributed a Pick-Six to this game. The Lions could not run the ball at all gaining only 29 yards on the ground for the entire game. Meanwhile, the Colts dominated the clock; in the first quarter of the game, the Colts had the ball for 13 minutes and 15 seconds. With the Titans losing last week, the Colts and Titans are tied atop the AFC South – – and they have both of their head-to-head matchups still to come. (Colts at Titans on Nov 12^th and Titans at Colts on Nov 29^th.)

The Chiefs beat the Jets 35-9. Patrick Mahomes had a big day here throwing for 416 yards and 5 TDs. The Jets’ total offense for the day was 221 yards and 0 TDs. The Jets never got into the Rad Zone; this game was a classic beatdown.

The Steelers beat the Ravens 28-24. Last week, I said this was the Game of the Week and that it was going to be a great game to watch. Allow me to dislocate my shoulder while I pat myself on the back; I got both of those comments right. The Steelers’ defense played a great game sacking Lamar Jackson 4 times, intercepting 2 passes (one was a Pick-Six) and recovering 2 fumbles. The Ravens had the ball for 35:22 in the game and outgained the Steelers 457 yards to 221 yards, but when the Steelers got to the Red Zone, they were 3 for 3 in getting TDs. The Ravens got there 5 times and got a TD on only 3 of those visits. The Ravens dominated play in the first half running 45 offensive plays to only 20 for the Steelers. But the Steelers found ways to hang in and keep it close enough to win in the 4^th quarter.

The Steelers have now beaten the Titans and the Ravens on the road in successive games. This week, the Steelers appear to get a breather with the Cowboys – – but the game is in Dallas so this will be the third-consecutive road game for the Steelers…

The Bills beat the Pats 24-21. This is the fourth consecutive loss for the Pats and there seems to be a theme to the way they lose. The offense is lackluster and the Pats fall behind; then, the offense then wakes up – – but the Pats’ offense even at its best is not one that is designed to come from behind… The Bills’ defense had difficulty stopping the Pats’ running game last week giving up 188 yards (5.5 yards per carry). The Bills rightfully have their sights set on the playoffs in 2020 but they will need to have a better run defense in place if they expect to do any damage in playoff games.

I can see lots of reasons for Pats’ troubles this season. Tom Brady left, and they had 7 players opt-out for 2020 due to COVID concerns. But there’s more. The Pats have not fared well at the top of the NFL Draft for quite a while:

2017: No first-round picks or second round picks here . In the third round they took Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia. Rivers is on the roster but has played in only 12 games with the Pats; Garcia never made the team.
2018: Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel were first round picks who have played well but not stayed healthy. Duke Dawson taken in Round 2 has played a bit but not with any great distinction.
2019: N’Keal Harry in the first round has been a disappointment to say the least – – especially considering that Deebo Samuel was still on the board when the Pats took Harry. Joejuan Williams from Round 2 is merely OK. The best player from this draft came in Round 3 – Chase Winovich.
2020: No first-round picks last year. Kyle Dugger and Josh Uche (Round 2) have played a bit as have Anfernee Jennings and Devin Asiasi (Round 3) – – but no one is touting any of these guys as “Rookie of the Year” material.

The Broncos beat the Chargers 31-30. The Chargers led 24-3 with 7:44 left to play in the third quarter – – and manufactured a way to lose the game. In the 4^th quarter, the Broncos scored 3 TDs and the Chargers settled for 2 FGs. I want to focus on the fourth quarter of this game here and do a bit of math. Here is Broncos’ QB, Drew Lock’s stat line for the game:

26 of 41 for 248 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

Now, here is Drew Lock’s stat line for the fourth quarter:

13 of 16 for 150 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs

Ergo, for the first 3 quarters of that game, the Chargers’ defense was making Drew Lock look like he was overmatched with a stat line of:

13 of 25 for 98 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

Yowza!

The Raiders beat the Browns 16-6. The weather conditions for this game were awful and had a lot to do with keeping the score down. It was pretty obvious early on that the wind and rain was going to make the passing game problematic for the day. So, the Raiders resorted to a bludgeoning run game featuring Josh Jacobs and Devin Booker who carried the ball a total of 36 times for 157 yards.

The Saints beat the Bears 26-23 in OT. The Bears’ defense played well. The Bears’ offense rallied from 10 points down with 10 minutes left in the game to force OT, but Alvin Kamara was the spark that set up the Saints for the winning FG in OT. Kamara had 67 yards rushing (on 12 carries) and he caught 9 passes for 96 yards in the game.

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9. This was an ugly game on both sides. How or why the Cowboys’ offensive braintrust managed to ignore Amari Cooper is bizarre. Cooper caught 1 pass for 5 yards for the whole game. Ben DiNucci played as well as one could expect from a 3^rd string rookie QB taken in the 7^th round of the Draft just 7 months ago. Just to clarify, DiNucci was overmatched… There were 6 turnovers in this game and the total offense by BOTH teams was a measly 487 yards.

The Seahawks beat the Niners 37-27. DK Metcalf had a monster of a game catching 12 passes for 161 yards and 2 TDs. The Seahawks’ defense held the Niners to 351 yards – – which is about 130 yards below the Seahawks’ average coming into the game.

Last night, the Packers dominated the Niners from the start of the game to the end winning the game 34-17. Do not be fooled by the final score; the Niners scored 2 classic “garbage time touchdowns” to avoid abject embarrassment. The Niners put up a struggle but with 8 starters out of the lineup from the outset, they brought brass knuckles to an axe fight. The most important thing that I saw in this game was that the Packers’ defense did indeed know how to tackle an opposing player with the ball. That had not been evident in last week’s loss to the Vikes.

NFL Games:

Here are the teams on their BYE Weeks:

Bengals: Raise your hand if you thought the Bengals would go into their BYE Week with a record better than 6 other NFL teams.
Browns: They have shown that they can beat bad and mediocre teams but cannot hang with the “the big guys”. Can a BYE Week provide answers?
Eagles: They lead the NFC East this morning; they will lead the NFC East after their BYE Week is over. Hi ho…
Rams: They are squarely in the playoff picture – – but when they have an “off game” they look as if they belong in the SEC as opposed to the NFL.

Seattle – 3 at Buffalo (55): I worry about “body-clock games” for West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone at 1:00 PM ET. For some reason, that phenomenon seems not to affect the Seahawks. Consider:

Seahawks are 7-1-1 against the spread in the ET zone since 2018
Russell Wilson is 18-7-2 against the spread in the ET zone since he came into the NFL in 2012.

I do not think the Bills’ defense is up to the task of containing the Seahawks’ offense; unless last week was the dawning of awareness for the Seahawks’ defense, it is not up to the task of stopping anyone. I think the key here is that Russell Wilson is fundamentally a better QB in 2020 than Josh Allen is; I think the Seahawks can win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Denver at Atlanta – 4 (49.5): The Falcons are 2-1 under the leadership of interim coach, Raheem Morris. The Broncos are riding high after a miracle comeback win last week over the Chargers (see above). The Falcons’ defense is prone to give up big plays; it has given up more passing yards (1508) than any other team in the league. Actually, I do not trust either defense here; I think the game will go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Chicago at Tennessee – 6.5 (47): Both teams have lost two games in a row, but their problems/issues are divergent. The Titans’ defense is a mess; the Bears’ offense is a mess. The Titans’ offense is good – – but inconsistent; the Bears’ defense is excellent. Two stats will collide in this game:

Titans’ defense is the worst in the NFL allowing 62% on third-down conversions.
Bears’ offense is 31^st in the NFL converting 35% in third-down situations.

Detroit at Minnesota – 4 (52): There are two highly unreliable teams from week to week. Will Kirk Cousins throw multiple INTs this week? Will Dalvin Cook continue to look like a latter-day version of Emmitt Smith? Matthew Stafford is questionable to play due to COVID protocols and if he does, will he throw 4 TDs or get sacked 6 times in the game? Just ignore this game…

Baltimore – 1.5 at indy (48): This spread opened the week at 4 points and you can find it as low as “pick ‘em” this morning. Almost assuredly the reason for such a contraction is that the Ravens have reported 7 defensive players on the “COVID List” including their 3 starting linebackers and 2 more backups at that position. Do not be surprised to hear that the Ravens put in a call to Dr. Anthony Fauci later today – – not for the purpose of learning about the coronavirus but to ask if he things he could step in and play linebacker on Sunday.

Carolina at KC – 10.5 (52.5): The Panthers are on a 3-game losing streak and the NFL schedule maker has decided to send them to the mid-west to play the Chiefs this week. That comes across to me as sadistic. Christian McCaffrey might be back and ready to play in this game – – but that will not be enough for the Panthers to prevail here.

Houston – 6.5 at Jax (50): The spread opened here at 4 points and the Total Line at 56 points. Both line movements are large enough to notice. The record for both of these teams is 1-6 on the season, and both are well out of contention in the AFC South race. To be sure, there is Dog-Breath Game of the Week potential here. However, I see potential value here because even though Jax had a BYE Week last week, I do not think this is the start of something special in Jax given that Gardner Minshew will be replaced at QB by Jake Luton – – a 6^th round draft pick last April out of Oregon State. If the Jags are going to start Luton at QB, their game plan must focus on the run game for two reasons:

First, the odds are that Jake Luton is not going to light up the scoreboard with multiple TDs in his first start.
Second, the Texans defense gives up 5.2 yards per rushing attempt – – tied for worst in that category in the NFL.

On the other hand, Jax is not a pass-rushing juggernaut having recorded a total of 6 sacks in 7 games. If Deshaun Watson has time to throw the ball, he will pick apart the carcass that is the Jags’ secondary. I like the Texans to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Giants at Washington – 2.5 (42): I know; this is a division game, and the NFC East is bad enough as a whole that either of these flawed teams might wind up in the NFL playoffs come January. Now that I have paid due homage to the reality that the football gods present us with, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Since I am not going to be in the DC suburbs this Sunday, there is a possibility that I will not have this game pollute my television screen at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday – – but I am not far enough away from the DC suburbs to be assured of that possible blessing. I like to watch teams play good defense; in this game, there may be a mirage of “good defense”. Consider:

Giants rank 29^th in the NFL in yards per offensive play (4.9 yards per play).
WTFs rank 31^st in the NFL in yards per offensive play (4.6 yards per play).

The Giants arrive here off a short work week; the WTFs had a BYE Week last week. Somehow, I do not think any of that matters even a whit…

Las Vegas at Chargers “pick ‘em” (51.5): The spread opened the week with the Chargers favored by 3 points. Apparently, the betting public has had enough of the Chargers finding ways to lose games straight up and against the spread.

Pittsburgh – 14 at Dallas (42): I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games. The Eagles beat the Cowboys by 14 points just last week – and kept them out of the end zone for the whole game. The Steelers are better than the Eagles – – particularly on defense. I would not bet on this game with your money, but I will note that the Cowboys will be starting someone other than Ben DiNucci at QB for this game. Di Nucci grew up and played high school football in Gibsonia, PA which is a suburb of Pittsburgh. The Cowboys’ decision to start either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert over DeNucci means that any sort of “homecoming mojo” has been eliminated. This is a classic “let-down game” for the Steelers; it is their third straight road game and their last two victories on the road have come over clearly superior opponents – – the Titans and the Ravens. As of this morning, the Steelers are at minus-1000 on the Money Line. Dwight Perry reported in the Seattle Times what a successful bet at minus-1000 odds returns to the bettor:

“A bettor plunked down $8,600 on No. 1 Clemson — at minus-1,000 odds — to beat Syracuse and collected $8.60 from FanDuel for his troubles.

“That’s like shelling out for the Kobe beef and Maine lobster just to get the after-dinner mint.”

Miami at Arizona – 4 (49): This spread began the week at 6 points and has contracted since then. If I had to guess, I would say that the Dolphins’ win over the Rams last week has been the major motivator for contracting the spread on the game. The Dolphins have yielded the fewest points to opponents in their 7 games (18.6 points per game).

(Sun Nite) New Orleans at Tampa Bay – 4.5 (50.5): This spread opened at 6 points and has been slowly eroding as the week progressed. Meanwhile the Total Line opened at 56 points. The original oddsmaker and many bettors remain at loggerheads; the betting public sees this as a closer game than the oddsmakers did last weekend. Because these are two good teams and because this game has great significance regarding the NFC South race, this is my Game of the Week.

(Mon Nite) New England – 7.5 at Jets (41.5): This was a close runner-up in the race for Dog-Breath Game of the week. It features one team – the Patriots – that have not won a game in the last month against a team – the Jets – that has not won a game this season. This is one more bad game for the folks at ESPN to try to make palatable.

So, as I go back to review this week’s Six-Pack, I notice that it is only a Five-Pack. There is an old adage that tells you that you get what you pay for. In the case of Six-Pack selections, they are totally free – – immediately establishing their intrinsic worth. Ergo, I shall live with the situation of a mislabeled Six-Pack for this week:

Oklahoma St./Kansas St. OVER 45
Florida +3.5 against Georgia
Seahawks – 3 over Bills
Broncos/Falcons OVER 49.5
Texans – 6.5 over Jags

Finally, apropos of the weekly Six-Pack, a former colleague often said:

“Everyone should make at least one bet a day. If he doesn’t, he could be walking around stupid-lucky and never realize it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

ESPN Stuff Today…

The NFL is about to begin negotiations with TV networks regarding new TV contracts; obviously, the NFL expects to increase revenue from those sources, and they have a powerful argument on their side of the bargaining table. I read somewhere that for the calendar year 2020, 37 of the biggest TV audiences for televised events were NFL games. To me, that is a sufficiently powerful argument but wait, there’s more… Three of those “biggest TV audiences” were political debates; since there will be no more political debates on TV for the next 4 years, the projected score would be 37 of the largest 47 telecasts (79%) were NFL games.

That just sets the stage. Reports say more specifically that ESPN – – via its parent Disney Corp – – is interested in making a run at Sunday Night Football. At the moment, SNF is a huge bargain; it consistently gets sky-high ratings, and it costs far less than the other TV network deals. ESPN currently has the Monday Night Football deal; rather than focusing on getting some other part of the NFL TV package, I think that ESPN needs first to get a new bargaining team on their side. I will not pretend to know all of the provisions of the various NFL TV contracts in place now, but there are some glaring items there which tell me that ESPN did a bad job getting the MNF package last time around. Consider:

Super Bowl telecasts: ESPN gets none as part of the MNF package; NBC is “in the rotation” to telecast Super Bowl games along with FOX and CBS. Clearly this is an advantage for NBC.
Playoff telecasts: ESPN gets to show one playoff game; NBC gets to show two playoff games thanks to the new expanded playoff structure this year. Obviously, NBC has the advantage here.
Scheduling: ESPN has a fixed slate of games set in stone when the NFL schedule is released sometime in the Spring; NBC enjoys flex-scheduling for some games meaning they can swap-out a “Dog-Breath Game” for a more interesting game as the season unfolds. For the networks, better games lead to better ratings lead to higher charges to advertisers for time slots during the telecast.

I hope it would not take me long to convince you that NBC has the advantage in all three areas noted above. Now consider the critical element of the SNF and the MNF deals that leads me to conclude that ESPN needs better folks negotiating for them this time around:

Cost: NBC pays the NFL $950M a year for Sunday Night Football with those 3 items noted above. ESPN pays the NFL $2B a year for Monday Night Football with those 3 items noted above.

It seems to me that SNF will always enjoy the advantage of flex-scheduling over MNF. In addition to the logistical burden placed on two visiting teams to adjust travel and accommodation plans from Sunday to Monday or vice-versa, changing the date of two games will impose problems for fans with tickets to the games. Changing a game from Sunday afternoon to Sunday night can be a problem for some fans; there is no question about that; changing the date of two games from Sunday to Monday or Monday to Sunday is going to impose a larger burden on a larger number of fans. TV is the big moneymaker, but the NFL does not want to serially piss off the fans who show up at the game venues; owners really do like the revenue that game attendance provides. I could be wrong, but I do not expect the next MNF deal to include flex-scheduling.

However, if SNF continues to hold onto the other advantages it now enjoys with regard to playoff and Super Bowl telecasts, I would expect the cost of SNF to go through the roof and the cost of MNF to increase only slightly from its present level.

It is important to note that Disney Corp also owns ABC. So, it is possible that ABC could enter the bidding for one or both of the Sunday afternoon packages now held by CBS and FOX. There are lots of moving parts here and formal negotiations have not yet begun, but this is a subject that should be interesting to watch.

While on the topic of ESPN, the radio arm of ESPN did a major shake-up of its programming about 3 months ago. Two of the programs in the mid-day/early afternoon time slots are now manned by “known quantities” in Mike Greenberg and Max Kellerman. Frankly, I like both programs for different reasons. Mike Greenberg’s program is a leisurely paced program where interviews with guests are actual discussions on a sports topic. Too many sports radio interviews are transparently a situation where the host lobs softball questions at a guest who has pre-formed answers for the questions. That is not the case with Greenberg and his guests; those interviews are interesting.

Max Kellerman may be the most under-appreciated person at ESPN. He is smart; he is opinionated without being obnoxious; he is analytical and rational. Even when you disagree with one of his positions, you think about what he has said because you recognize that it is not just some “hot-take” that he concocted to try to attract interest to his program.

The new program on ESPN Radio that I still have not decided that I like or dislike is the morning-drivetime program featuring Keyshawn Johnson, Jay Williams and Zubin Mehenti. Sometimes these guys are entertaining; sometimes these guys are almost cringeworthy.

Keyshawn Johnson: Wherever she may be in the cosmos, my 12^th grade English teacher who graduated from Mount Holyoke must get an electric shock traversing her nervous system at least 5 times an hour when Keyshawn mangles English grammar and syntax. I mentioned above that Max Kellerman rarely resorts to “hot-takes”; Keyshawn seems to love to wade into that pool of thinking.
Jay Williams: His wheelhouse – obviously – is college basketball and to a lesser extent the NBA. When the subject is football or baseball, I sometimes wonder if Williams took off his headset, left the set and got himself a smoothie. He had some interesting things to say about the NBA playoffs but on other topics he is almost a “no-show”.
Zubin Mehenti: If you could build a rocket ship that ran on enthusiasm and you put Zubin Mehenti on that ship, you would have the makings of an interstellar transportation vehicle. Here is the issue; some mornings when I get up and decide to turn on the radio, I am not ready for high energy radio that borders on cheerleading. Other mornings, that sort of assault on my senses is refreshing.

Here is what I think is the essential difference between the “morning guys” and the “early afternoon guys” on ESPN Radio:

Keyshawn, Jay and Zubin are often entertaining. When they are annoying, I just turn off the radio
Mike Greenberg and Max Kellerman are usually entertaining AND they are informative at the same time. That is the standard the “morning guys” need to achieve much more regularly.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation in the Seattle Times regarding the analytics-driven removal of Blake Snell from Game 6 of the World Series that sparked yesterday’s rant:

“Look at the bright side of Blake Snell’s premature exit from Game 6, Rays fans:

“When he pitches the 2021 season opener next April 1, he’ll be working on 156 days’ rest — not to mention 2 or 3 bonus innings of nonwear and tear.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………