Category: Daily Rants

The NCAA announced some alterations in the standard schedule for March Madness recently.  The first change came several weeks ago when they announced that the entire tournament would be held in Indianapolis – all 67 games.  That announcement made sense; there are enough court facilities in town to provide game venues; it would allow for much less travel and an enhanced – if not perfect – “bubble environment”; and it is about as neutral a site as could be picked ahead of time.  Yesterday, the NCAA announced that the normal pattern of games would be different in the 2021 tournament:

• Normally, the 4 play-in games – – the First Four in NCAA parlance – – would take place on the Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday.  In 2021, all four games will take place on the Thursday after Selection Sunday – – March 18,2021.
• That movement requires a change in the first-round games since the four winners of the play-in games need to take part in the first-round games which normally would begin on the Thursday after Selection Sunday.  This year, the first-round games will be held on Friday and Saturday – – March 19 and March 20, 2021.
• That would push the second-round games to Sunday and Monday – – March 21 and March 22, 2021.
• Sweet Sixteen games will be Saturday and Sunday – – March 27 and 28, 2021 – – this year as opposed to Thursday and Friday as in the past.
• Regional finals will be Monday and Tuesday – – March 29 and March 30, 2021.
• The Final Four games will be Saturday April 3, 2021 with the Championship Game taking place on Monday April 5, 2021.

It will be interesting to see how fans react to the new timing of the games.  There are several positive aspects to it not the least of which is that four of the teams involved in two of the play-in games do not have to do a turn-around from Sunday to Tuesday to play their first tournament game.  That put the winners of the first set of play-in games on a schedule to play Tuesday, Thursday and then Saturday if they won the first two games.  This scheduling spreads out those games.

I will reserve judgement regarding the shifting of the Sweet Sixteen games and the regional finals simply because I can convince myself that it is either a significant change or a trivial one depending on how I look at it.  So, rather than make a pronouncement now, I think I will just experience this different schedule and react to it after the fact.

We have seen that COVID-19 has a way of wreaking havoc on sports schedules for the past year or so.  This scheduling is ambitious particularly considering the number of COVID-19 cases that have been detected among college basketball players and coaches so far in this patchwork season.  CBSSports.com tracks canceled/postponed college basketball games for the season; as of this morning there have already been 125 such cancellations/postponements and according to the website, there are 15 more to add to the list between now and Saturday, January 23,2021.

As I said, this is an ambitious plan and given my enthusiasm for March Madness, I certainly hope it goes off without a hitch.  Now, all I have to do is to tamp down that little voice in the back of my head quoting Robert Burns :

“The best laid schemes o’ Mice and Men, gang aft agley.”

[The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.]

Moving along …  There certainly has been a barrage of Internet ads for the HBO documentary on Tiger Woods.  One of the promotional come-ons was the assertion that in this documentary,

• “The raw truth about Tiger Woods is about to be revealed.”

I am not big on documentaries in the first place simply because too many of them are nothing but video versions of opinion pieces; if you know more than a little bit about the producer of the documentary you pretty much know what it will “reveal” and/or “document”.  They are not all that different from op-ed pieces or magazine essays where you know about the views of the author as you consume the first paragraph.

With that prejudice against documentaries as a category of events that reveal “the raw truth”, you will not be surprised to learn that I missed the first installment and plan to miss any subsequent installments.  However, I find it interesting that the folks at HBO were able to put together this “revelation of raw truth” without anyone asking how such “raw truth” might have escaped the journalistic probing and “seeking of the truth for the benefit of the American public” over all those years.  For way too long, the nominal journalists who cover golf have given a pass to plenty of impolite and/or anti-social behavior by various golfers and then those folks took that “look-the-other-way” school of reporting to an art form with Tiger Woods.

The reason there might even be “raw truth” to reveal about Tiger Woods is because he has had nothing but fawning coverage – bordering on idolatry – for about 20 years.  A major component of the existence of such “raw truth” is the complicity of the toadies who covered golf and Tiger Woods.

Finally, the effect of COVID-19 on the NBA has also been significant this season causing the NBA to add new restrictions to its virus protocols.  One such restriction is a limitation on postgame hugs and handshakes among the players.  Bob Molinaro captured that element of the NBA protocol recently in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“These times: Thunder guard George Hill, on the NBA’s updated COVID protocol: ‘We can sweat 48 minutes a game with (an opponent) next to us, but we can’t talk to them afterwards. It makes no sense.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today, I want to analyze NFL teams that have “QB issues” to deal with in the off-season.  At first glance, one might think that this list would duplicate the list of 6 teams out there looking for a new coach; and indeed, there is plenty of overlap.  However, as one counterexample, the Chargers have Justin Herbert on their roster and their new coach – Brandon Staley – ought not to be kept awake at nights wondering what to do at that position.  I think there are 13 NFL teams with “QB issues” and I want to divide them into 3 categories.

Category 1 are the teams that have a QB issue of their own making.  I put 5 teams in Category 1:

1. Eagles:  The regression of Carson Wentz’ capacity to play QB has been stunning; the reports that he is disgruntled and would prefer to be out of Philly speaks to the way his regression was handled by the former coaching staff.  People say his contract makes him untradeable; the new coach there had better arrive with a plan for team improvement and a bucket of salve for a huge case of the red ass.
2. Jets:  Sam Darnold has been in the NFL for 3 years and has started 38 games – – and the Jets still have no idea if he can be a franchise QB.  He started his career with a defensive-minded coach followed by two years under Adam Gase’s random regime.  The Jets do not know what Darnold can do and I doubt that Darnold knows either.  Should the Jets be done with their upheaval with the hiring of Robert Saleh – – or do they need a new QB in this year’s draft too?
3. Lions:  Someone there allowed a rumor to start saying that the Lions might be looking to move on from Matthew Stafford.  I am not here to suggest that Stafford will be in the HoF someday, but he is a more-then-adequate starting QB who will be 33 next season.  If he leaves – or becomes less enthusiastic based on this rumor floating about, this is a self-inflicted wound by the Lions.  And what else might one expect from the Lions…?
4. Niners:  Reports say that the Niners have an out for Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract this year and that they are considering exercising that out.  Jimmy G. has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons in SF; but when he was healthy for an entire season in 2019, the Niners went to the Super Bowl.  Garoppolo will be 30 years old next season.
5. Texans:  If reports are accurate, the Texans’ owner and Deshaun Watson have found a way to put a gap between themselves.  Assuming that both parties have dispute resolution skills beyond that of third-grade playground adversaries, this is a spitting contest that needs to end immediately.  If the Texans must “move on” from Deshaun Watson over this “feud”, the Texans’ ownership will descend in the NFL rankings down to “Danny Boy Snyder level”.

Might there be a solution to the “QB issue” for two teams here in Category 1?  Carson Wentz and Jimmy G both have big contracts that make them – supposedly – untradeable; might an exchange of one for the other be feasible?  Each player gets a new venue to show his talent.

Category 2 are the teams with a talent deficiency at the position simply because the QB decisions made by the franchise over the past five years or so have not panned out.

1. Bears:  Mitchell Trubisky lights things up occasionally; so do fireflies.  He has been in the league 4 seasons and started 50 games; he is only 26 years old; he has not shown that he is “the guy”.  Nick Foles is a great backup QB but never seems to work out as the “main man”.  The other two QBs on the Bears’ roster today are Tyler Bray and Kyle Sloter.  The Bears are between Scylla and Charybdis.  (Hat Tip to Homer…)  The Bears draft 20^th in April; that does not seem to be the way they are going to resolve their issue.
2. Broncos:  John Elway was one of the great QBs of NFL history; nevertheless, he has been singularly unable to find a competent QB for his Broncos save for the time that Peyton Manning “fell into his lap”.  Since Manning’s retirement 5 years ago, here are the 10 QBs that Elway has given his coach as a potential starter: Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemien, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Philip Lindsey and Drew Lock.  Of that mélange, Driskel, Lock and Rypien are still on the roster.  The Broncos draft 9^th this year; will there be a QB available for them at that position?
3. Jags:  The Jags have had QB issues since the days when Mark Brunell and/or Byron Leftwich were playing; that was about 15 years ago.  The current roster has Mike Glennon, Jake Luton and Gardner Minshew as the team QBs; perhaps you may think of all three as serviceable backups for a week or two but nothing more than that.  The good news here is that the Jags draft first in April in a draft where there are several excellent talents to be had.  We shall see…

Category 3 are the teams where the QB issue was created by – or at least exacerbated by – Father Time.

1. Colts:  The Colts rolled the dice with Philip Rivers last year and made the playoffs.  If Rivers chooses to come back next  year on another 1-year deal, the Colts QB issue devolves to “kicking the can down the road”.  Other than Rivers, the Colts’ QBs are Jacoby Brissett and Jacob Eason.  Brissett has been in the league 5 seasons and has 32 starts under his belt.  Maybe he is a worthy heir apparent to Philip Rivers…  Or not…
2. Saints:  Jay Glazer reports that Drew Brees is retiring now that the Saints’ playoff run in 2021 is over.  Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemien and Jameis Winston are currently on the roster.  None would appear to approach Brees in terms of productivity but – to be clear – the Saints’ QB issue is not nearly as dire a situation as exist for other teams on this list.
3. Steelers:  Yes, I know the Steelers won their first 11 games in 2020 and made the playoffs.  Nevertheless, for the last month or so, Ben Roethlisberger looked like a shell of his HoF self.  If he comes back, the Steelers have a QB issue of one kind – – namely a limited capability starter.  If he retires, the Steelers have a QB issue of a different stripe – namely that neither Mason Rudolph nor Joshua Dobbs has shown a lot of evidence of being or becoming a franchise QB.  Dobbs has been in the NFL for 4 years and Rudolph for 3 years…
4. Patriots:  Cam Newton is a shell of his former self; Brian Hoyer will be 36 years old next year; he has been in the NFL for 12 seasons and has shown that he is a journeyman backup QB over that lengthy period.  To be fair, the Pats; pass-catching corps is also talent deficient to a similar degree; both parts of the offensive unit need serious reconstruction.  However, there is no hiding the fact that the Pats’ need to effect a significant upgrade at QB.
5. WTFs:  Ron Rivera has shown that his system can produce some winning football with Alex Smith at QB, but Alex Smith checks every box imaginable when it comes to “Reasons Why He Is Not The Guy You Build Around”.  In addition to his injury history, Smith will be 37 years old next season.   Taylor Heinicke has appeared in 9 NFL games – starting 2 of them – in  his 3 seasons in the NFL; he played exceptionally well in his playoff start this year – – but is that enough to tell the team that their QB issue is resolved?  Fans in Washington need to hope for Smith’s health to hold up and/or for Heinicke to be a diamond in the rough because the WTFs do not draft until 20^th this year and there will likely not be a gemstone quality QB available then.

These 13 teams with a “QB issue” exemplify how and why it is important for a coach and  a GM to be able to work together constructively.  Bill Belichick could not coach his way to the playoffs with Cam Newton as the QB; Mike Tomlin could not overcome Ben Roethlisberger’s diminished performances at the end of the 2020 season; Ron Rivera squeezed every drop of juice from the lemons he had at the QB position in 2020.  Those are 3 top-shelf football coaches and their outcomes in 2020 demonstrate that a talent ceiling is something that cannot be overcome save for dumb luck.  John Elway as a GM demonstrated over the past several seasons that the ability to find a franchise QB is critically important to watching your coach have success on the sidelines on Sunday afternoons.

This list comprises 40% of the NFL franchises.  All of them need to address this issue directly; some will do so, and others will punt.  Stay tuned…

Finally, fans and coaches and GMs – and maybe even owners – of these teams will approach the offseason with vigor and optimism that these issues may be resolved positively and rapidly.  For that, let me provide this observation by Ambrose Bierce:

“Optimism: The doctrine or belief that everything is beautiful, including that which is ugly.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

When Macbeth learns of Lady Macbeth’s death, he begins a soliloquy with:

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day …”

Well, at the normal petty pace, there have been seven tomorrows since last Friday and that means today it is time for another Football Friday.  As is the custom, I shall begin by reviewing last week’s Six-Pack – knowing full well that getting the season record up to .500 is horribly unlikely:

• College:  1-1-0
• NFL:  3-3-0
• Combined:  4-4-0

That brings the cumulative record to an unimpressive:

• College:  20-25-1
• NFL:  31-37-2
• Combined:  51-62-3

 

College Football Commentary:

 

As is seemingly always the case, there is an undercurrent of consternation at the conclusion of the CFP this year.  It was also the case with the late-but-not-lamented BCS Championship, and the common theme is that the opportunity to become the national champion is not sufficiently open to enough teams.  As soon as that subject comes up, there is a reflexive reaction to recall the Boise State upset of Oklahoma demonstrating that – if given the chance – David can slay Goliath on a football field as he did in the Valley of Elah.

Indeed, that Fiesta Bowl game was a shock; but for just a moment, put that upset into a bit of perspective:

• That game took place on January 1^st, 2007; that was 13 seasons ago.  Since there have been no bowl game upsets of such importance that this game has been allowed to fade into memory, one might begin to conclude that “Davids” do not routinely rise up and slay “Goliaths”.
• The final spread on that game was 7-points in favor of Oklahoma; this was not a  team winning outright when the oddsmakers thought it was a three-touchdown spread.  Teams that are 7-point underdogs only pay about 3-to-1 to win the game outright; that is not much of a longshot.
• At the kickoff, Oklahoma was ranked #7 in the country and Boise State was ranked #9.  Had that game taken place under those conditions in mid-October, I doubt the game would be remembered 13 years after it happened.

All that is a prelude to a simple and direct question for college football fans who paid attention to the games from October through last weekend:

• Did you see – with your own eyes – a college football team that was better week-to-week than Alabama?

I did not and I have no allegiance or rooting interest in any of the teams ranked in the Top 25 as of the end of the season.  I do not mean to imply that this year’s Alabama team was invincible; of course, on any given Saturday …  Nonetheless, that was the best college football team I saw all season long by a comfortable margin.

I am convinced that the CFP will eventually be expanded for reasons having exactly nothing to do with “fairness” or “expansion of opportunity” and having everything to do with increased revenues.  And when that happens – my guess is in the next 5 years or so – it will be equally difficult for teams in minor conferences to get an invitation unless the field is expanded well beyond any logical limit.

Look at this year’s results as you ponder what might have been the field with a 6-team bracket handing BYE Weeks to the two highest ranking teams:

• Texas A&M would almost certainly have been the #5 seed.
• People who want to see “the little guys” get a fair shot would argue that undefeated Cincy should have been #6.  I say, the results point in a different direction.
• Cincy got a shot in a bowl game against Georgia and lost in a close game.  However, Georgia lost straight up to Florida by 16 points.  So, how is it logical – not emotional – to say that Cincy belonged in the CFP instead of Florida?
• By the way, Florida had lost 3 games in the regular season and should never have been part of the CFP consideration – – and then, Florida lost its Cotton Bowl encounter to Oklahoma by 5 TDs.

It makes no sense to argue that the CFP Selection Committee does not put the “right teams” in the CFP and then say that by increasing the number of teams for them to select that they will “get it right”.  The selection process is flawed because the people involved are not “neutral arbiters” and because they do not have the time to study enough to do their rankings efficiently and effectively.  Those folks have full time jobs other than being on that Committee.

This annual emotional outburst at the end of the CFP has gotten tedious.  The tedium is particularly evident this year when – I assert – Alabama was indeed the best college football team from October through January.

In a college coaching move, it appears as if Bill O’Brien will seek the calming and cleansing waters that are available to assistant coaches at Alabama.  O’Brien left the Houston Texans under a cloud and with the team roster in shambles.  His previous reputation took on a lot of mud in the process but now he will be the Offensive Coordinator for Nick Saban and those sorts of positions have a recent history of restoring a gleam to damaged coaching reputations.

Bonne chance, Coach O’Brien…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Urban Meyer has signed up to be the head coach of the Jags.  I will wait until all the NFL coaching openings are filled to think about the scope of all the changes made in that area, but I will say this about Coach Meyer:

• In his 7 years at Ohio State, Meyer’s teams lost a total of 9 games.
• If his first year with the Jags results in the Jags losing fewer than 9 games, he might be the Coach of the Year in the NFL.

The Jets announced that Robert Saleh will be their new head coach; Saleh had been the Defensive Coordinator for the Niners for the past several years.  There had been rumors that the Jets would hire recently fired Eagles’ coach Doug Pederson; those rumors were based on the previous working relationship between Pederson and Jets’ GM, Joe Douglas.  Now that those rumors have been put to rest, let me offer a note of encouragement for Jets’ fans:

• A little more than 25 years ago, the Jets hired a recently fired Eagles’ coach and it did not end well at all.  History does not always repeat itself – – but every once in a while…
• No matter the outcome of the Robert Saleh regime in NYC, he will not have an anvil labeled “Kotite” hanging over his head from Day One.

Before all the other vacancies are filled, I do want to make a comment about one report of a coaching interview.  The Falcons reportedly interviewed Todd Bowles for the job in Atlanta.  Notwithstanding a losing record with the Jets, I thought that Bowles did a good job there with the roster he had.  The Falcons have a significant need for a roster upgrade and Bowles could be the guy to see them through the rebuilding stages.

So, what may we glean from last week’s playoff games?  The Ravens beat the Titans 20-13.  More important than the score is the fact that the Ravens held Derrick Henry to 40 yards rushing on 18 carries.  The game also got the monkey off Lamar Jackson’s back as he won the first playoff game of his career.  The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but dominated the game from that point forward.  The Ravens turned the tables on the Titans; normally, it is the Titans that dominate the running stats for a game; here the Ravens outgained the Titans on the ground 236 yards to 51 yards.

The Saints beat the Bears 21-9.  The Bears’ defense played well; holding the Saints to 21 points is an accomplishment; that matches the lowest output by the Saint’s offense for all of the 2020 season.  The Bears’ offense, however, told a different story:

• The Bears had the ball for only 21 minutes in the game.
• The Bears ran 49 plays, and the Saint ran 75 plays.
• The Bears made only 11 first downs
• The Bears were 1 of 10 on third down conversions.

Added to those woes, the Bears were penalized 9 times in the game and 5 of those penalties gave the Saints a first down.  On a few plays, Mitchell Trubisky made perfect throws; however, for most of the game, he looked mystified as to what he was seeing and what he should do about it.  The Bears’ braintrust needs to do some heavy analysis of their QB situation for the future.  That Bears’ defense is not getting any younger…

The Browns beat the Steelers 48-37.  The Browns ran off to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter; if something could have gone wrong for the Steelers in that opening quarter, it did.  The Steelers dominated the stat sheet – but to no avail:

• Steelers led in time of possession 32:46 to 26:40.
• Steelers had 34 first downs to Browns’ 20.
• Steelers gained 553 yards on offense to the Browns’ 390.
• Steelers were 8 of 15 on third down and 3 of 3 on fourth down conversions.
• Ben Roethlisberger threw for 501 yards and 4 TDs in the game.

So, how could the Steelers have lost by 11 points?  Well, look no further than the five turnovers by the Steelers – 4 INTs and a fumble that was recovered by the Browns for a TD on the first play of the game.  Once again, the Steelers demonstrated the absence of a running game gaining only 52 yards on 15 carries.  Indeed, Roethlisberger threw for 501 yards – – but it took him 68 attempts to get to that mark.  All they could do for most of the night was dink-and-dunk.  And that leads me to wonder:

• Is Ben Roethlisberger finished?  He will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days, but has Father Time come knocking on his door?

The Steelers have not won a playoff game in 4 years; this is not a team that needs a drastic “rebuild” because the defense is very good, and the pass catchers are more than adequate.  The Steelers do need to shore up the OL in the off-season and they may just need to be in the QB market for the first time in an awfully long time.

The Bills beat the Colts 27-24.  Like the Steelers above, the Colts dominated the stat sheet:

• Colts led in time of possession 34:17 to 25:43.
• Colts had 27 first downs to the Bills’ 22.
• Colts were 9 of 17 on third down to the Bills’ 2 of 9.
• Colts were 2 of 4 on fourth down conversions.
• Colts had 472 yards on offense to the Bills’ 397.

The Colts trailed 24-10 with eleven minutes to go in the fourth quarter but rallied to make a game of it.  The Colts had a “Hail Mary” shot at winning the game on the final play.  However, a decision in the middle of the second quarter loomed large at the end of the game.  The Colts had the ball first and goal at the Bills 4 yardline with the Colts leading 10-7.  The first three plays resulted in a net of zero yards; a short pass and a run from a wildcat formation got the ball to the 1 yardline where the Colts lost 3 yards on a running play.  Now it is 4^th and goal at the 4 yardline and the Colts decide to go for it and get nothing from the drive.  Note, that the Colts lost the game by 3 points…

The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-20.  The fact that All-World defensive tackle, Aaron Donald, had to leave the game with a rib injury must mean that this result is not an unalloyed success for the Rams.  The fact that Jared Goff was able to be as effective as he was is a bright spot because he had had surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand – – several pins were inserted – – only 12 days prior to this game.  He was needed once starter John Wolford had to leave the game with an apparent neck injury in the first quarter.

The Seahawks like to run the football, but the Rams outgained the Seahawks on the ground 164 yards to 136 yards and they held the edge in time of possession 33 minutes to 27 minutes.  Neither team was particularly good on third down conversions; the Rams were 3 of 15 in that situation; the Seahawks were 2 of 14.  Ho hum …

The Seahawks turned the ball over twice – – one was a Pick Six – – and those plays certainly did not help their cause.  This was a defensive game from start to finish notwithstanding the total score of 50 points.

The Bucs beat the WTFs 31-23.  You can look at the two QB performances here and see one as “business as usual” and the other as “wow, look at that”.

• “Business as usual” would be Tom Brady.  He was 22 of 40 for 381 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  Just another “day at the office”.
• “Wow, look at that” would be Taylor Heinicke.  He was 26 of 44 for 306 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  Heinicke also led the WTFs in rushing with 46 yards on 6 carries and a rushing TD.

This game was in doubt to the end.  At the start of the 4^th quarter, the Bucs led by a tenuous 18-16 score; they extended the lead to 28-16 with 9 minutes left in the game but the WTFs closed to 28-23 with about 5 minutes to go.  The Bucs added a field goal and then held the WTFs on downs to ice the game.

One of my “takeaways” from this game was that Tom Brady may be even less mobile than he was in the past and Tom Brady may not be able to throw the ball 60 yards downfield more than once a month – – and that does not really matter.  What matters is his accuracy and his ability to hit receivers in stride such that they can gain more yards after they catch the football.  Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees all excel in that phase of quarterbacking – – and that is why all three of them are still going to be on the field this weekend in their “football dotage”.

 

NFL Games:

 

(Sat 4:35 PM EST)  Rams at Green Bay – 6.5 (46.5):  Anytime there is a football game in Green Bay in January, one should check with Weather.com to see if Mother Nature wants to be part of the action.  The forecast for Saturday is for morning snow showers with a high temperature of 35 degrees and a low of 27 degrees; wind out of the NNW at 12 mph.  So, this will not be a game that harkens back to the famous Ice Bowl game in 1967 when the temperature was 13 degrees below zero.  However, if you are a QB with a recently surgically repaired thumb on your throwing hand, my guess is that you might encounter a small degree of difficulty gripping a football.  If history is any guide, Aaron Rodgers will not have difficulty throwing or gripping a cold football so there is an advantage for the Packers there.    The Rams’ defense ranked 1^st in the NFL over the regular season in total yards allowed and it ranked 1^st in pass defense allowing only 190.7 yards per game.  Can Aaron Donald play effectively here?  He is a big part of that defensive prowess.  And in addition to watching the line play involving Donald and/or his substitute, here is the battle that will be interesting and perhaps determinant for the game:

• Davante Adams is one of the best WRs in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target.  Jalen Ramsey is outstanding as a cover corner who routinely draws the opponent’s top receiving threat and usually holds that receiver in check.
• Let the game begin…

The other key to this game should be the ability of the Rams to run the football.   The Packers’ defense ranked 13th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 112.8.  The Rams’ averaged 126 yards per game on the ground; if they can run effectively here – – as they did last week – – they can keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines under a parka and that would be a good thing.

I think the Packers will have difficulty running the football here, but I do not think Aaron Rodgers will be shut down even if Jalen Ramsey dominates Davante Adams; I think the cold weather will limit Jared Goff to some extent so Cam Akers running the ball will be critical.  I like the Packers to win and cover at home in a low-scoring game; I also like the game to stay UNDER; put them in the Six-Pack. 

(Sat 8:15 PM EST)  Baltimore at Buffalo – 2.5 (49):  Frankly, I am looking forward to watching this game more than any of the others this weekend.  Both teams are peaking at the right time; the Ravens won 5 in a row at the end of the regular season and then won again last week; the Bills won 6 in a row at the end of the regular season and then won again last week.  The game will put on display two of the best young QBs in the league.  Now, as good as both young QBs are, I do not think either one is the key to this game:

• The Ravens are a running team.  They can run inside with power and they can run outside with speed.
• The Bills are mediocre defending against the run.  They ranked 17^th in rushing defense over the regular season which sounds workable, but they also ranked 25^th in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.6).
• I have no expectation that the Bills can stop the Ravens’ running attack; the question is if the Bills’ defense can keep it from dominating the game.  Moreover, they will need to devise a way to do that which does not simultaneously allow Lamar Jackson to go off.

I almost do not want to make a selection here because I want to focus on the events of this game without having even as trivial a “rooting interest” as one of these Six-Pack selections.  However, that would violate the spirit of these Football Fridays so, here goes …  It does not look as if the weather in Buffalo will be a factor; I like the Ravens to win the game outright and so I will take them plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack. 

(Sun 3:05 PM EST)  Cleveland at KC – 10.5 (56.5):  Anyone who reads these Football Friday missives knows that I hate picking NFL games with double-digit spreads.  The Browns will certainly try to control the clock here with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt carrying the ball.  The Chiefs will do what the Chiefs always do; they will score points.  If the Browns fall behind, I think it is game over; if the Browns get a lead and can run the ball to milk the clock …  The Browns and Chiefs allowed the same number of yards to opponents this season (actually the Chiefs allowed 2 fewer yards total for the season but let us not pick nits).  However, the Browns’ pass defense was not particularly good ranking 22^nd in the NFL regular season.  If Ben Roethlisberger could score 37 points last week and throw for 501 yards, what might be expected from Patrick Mahomes here?

• [Aside:  Back in their college days, Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) and Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) faced each other one time.  In that game the two combined for 1279 yards passing in only 4 quarters of football.  Baker Mayfield and the Sooners won that game 66-59.  That will not be the outcome here…]

The Browns’ win last week over the Steelers was an emotional victory.  They beat their biggest rival in the team’s first playoff game in next to forever; they did it with their coach in quarantine and on the road.  Just looking at the players on the sidelines at the end of the game, you could see the emotion in their eyes.  So, is the game this week possibly a let-down from that emotional high?

Because I hate double-digit spreads, I will forego a selection against the spread; I do think there will be a lot of scoring here so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack. 

(Sun 6:40 PM EST)  Tampa Bay at New Orleans – 3 (51.5):  The spread here opened the week as a pick ’em game but settled in at this level in mid-week.  This is the third time this year we can watch Tom Brady and Drew Brees ply their trade in the same game; the Saints prevailed in the first two meetings.  The Saints’ defense ranked 4^th in the NFL for the regular season in total defense and 5^th in the NFL in pass defense; they only allowed 217 yards per game in 2020.  In both games this year, the Saints’ offense has been productive scoring 34 points in one game and 38 in the other.  Having pointed out the Saints’ advantages here, let me also say that the Saints in 2020 are not a team designed to be able to come from behind; they normally do not produce lots of big plays in a game; they win by efficiency.  So here is a key question for the Saints if they are to be the winner of this game:

• Can you avoid a sluggish start to the game that puts you behind by two scores early on?

The Bucs’ pass defense ranked 21^st in the NFL this year giving up 246.6 yards per game; that unit can be exploited as was demonstrated by Taylor Heinicke last week ( see above).  TV announcers like to say that it is difficult for a team to beat another team three times in a season.  However, here is a stat that I ran across this week:

• Since 1990, teams that beat an opponent twice in a regular season were 12-5 against that same opponent when they met a third time in the playoffs.

I think Tom Brady is the better QB in this game; I also think the Saints are the better team in this game and football is a team game.  I like the Saints to win and cover at home; and I like the game to go OVER; put those in the Six Pack.

            So, let me recap this week’s Six-Pack – – which conveniently contains six selections:

1. Packers – 6.5 over Rams
2. Packers/Rams UNDER 46.5
3. Ravens + 2.5 against Bills
4. Browns/Chiefs OVER 56.5
5. Saints – 3 over Bucs
6. Saints/Bucs OVER 51.5

            Finally, the Bills will be relying on Stefon Diggs to be a weapon in their game against the Ravens this weekend.  Here is a comment related to Diggs from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Cameras caught wideout Stefon Diggs flossing on the sideline in the Bills’ regular-season finale.

“Forget All-Pro — he’s an ADA first-stringer!”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

James Harden got his wish; the Houston Rockets traded him to the Brooklyn Nets as the headline for a deal that involves 4 teams – Rockets, Nets, Cavaliers and Pacers.  This trade gives the Nets a “Big 3” alignment of Durant, Harden and Irving – – when Irving can get himself focused on basketball and not outside issues.  This trade signals that the Nets are focused on winning a championship now – or very shortly into the future.  Here are the highlights of the trade:

• Rockets get Rodions Kurocs, Dante Exum, Victor Oladipo and four unprotected first-round picks (Brooklyn 2022, 2024 and 2026, Milwaukee 2022), and four unprotected first-round pick swaps (2021, 2023, 2025, 2027).
• Nets get James Harden.

Let me start with the Rockets.  This puts them in an interesting “tear down and rebuild mode”.  Kurocs and Exum are role players; Kurocs is only 22 years old so he has room to “develop” but the odds are that he will bounce around the league as a throw-in for a variety of trades over the years.  Exum is in his mid-20s and is sort of in the same position.  Oladipo is an All-Star when he is healthy – – but he is not always healthy.  If you pair him with John Wall,  you have two players who are All-Stars when healthy – – but neither is always healthy.  Wall and Oladipo should prevent the Rockets from being awful – – but nothing more than that.

The Rockets, however, now have the draft capital for a rebuild.  It may appear at first that those first-round draft swaps are of no value since the Nets look to be very good and drafting at the bottom of the first round.  That is almost certainly true for 2021 and 2023, but as the Nets’ “Big 3” start to age, those swaps in 2025 and 2027 might develop some value.

The Nets are clearly in “Win Now Mode”.  Back in December when the first rumblings of “Harden to the Nets” was the headline story in NBA circles, I said that it would be a risky move for the Nets for two reasons:

1. Harden and Irving both want/need the ball to be as effective as they can be.  Durant does not need the ball as much as the other two, but he is more efficient offensively than the other two in the sense that he scores a lot of points with the ball in his hands for a relatively short time.  There is an unalterable fact about NBA basketball that applies here.  There is only one ball in use on the court at any given time.  We will soon find out if James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant learned their lessons about “sharing with others” in kindergarten.
2. Defense is secondary in the NBA; please do not try to convince me otherwise.  Having said that, two of the Nets’ “Big 3” exhibit nonchalance on defense over and above the typical lack of enthusiasm for that part of the game.  Durant will play defense – and will have to against teams with topflight centers and power forwards – but that will limit his offensive production.  When he is on the bench …  Back in December, I said that the Nets’ opponents might be able to score as if it were a layup line.

[Aside: For anyone who wagers on NBA games – I do not! – let me suggest that you consider betting OVER in Nets’ games for a week or two until the “market adjusts” to the new scoring potential married with the new defensive liabilities of the Nets.]

I think the most important “intangible” in this trade is that James Harden gives the Nets a measure of insurance for those times when Kyrie Irving takes time off for injury and/or personal reasons.  Over the last 3 NBA seasons, Irving has missed 87 games; so far this season, Irving has missed 6 of the 13 games on the Nets’ schedule.

If you believe that talent dominates everything else in the NBA, the Nets now must be the Eastern Conference favorites and – on a talent basis – on the same level as the Lakers out west.  If you believe that offense is only part of the NBA game, you might see a few smudges on the shiny new toy in Brooklyn.

In other NBA happenings, the league is having difficulties with the coronavirus.  Last season, the NBA was immensely successful with its “Orlando Bubble”; it finished off a regular season and ran a full complement of playoff games with only minimal overlap with the virus.  It was an unadulterated success from a scheduling, health and safety standpoint.  However, the main defense against the virus provided by the “Bubble” was the strict control over the people and the products that crossed the isolation boundary of the “Bubble”.  In the current season, that isolation boundary does not exist.

This NBA season began on December 22^nd; the first NBA game that had to be postponed happened on December 23^rd; as of this morning seven games have been postponed and two more games scheduled for tomorrow are going to be postponed.  That will make 9 games in 24 days that had to be scrapped due to the virus.

Obviously, there needed to be some form of tightening up the COVID-19 protocols currently in place if the league is to avoid either a hiatus or a shortened version of its already truncated season.  At the current pace of postponements, there could be a scheduling crisis at the end of the season resembling the Gordian Knot.

Earlier this week, the league and the players have agreed to some new restrictions to try to limit the virus.  They are well-intentioned; they will mitigate the problem if they are followed strictly.  Aye, there’s the rub…

• Players and staff are not to leave their residences when the team is at home except for outside exercise, emergencies, essential services and team activities at the team facility.
• Anyone who visits the residence of a player or staff member on a regular basis – – like a personal chef – – must be tested for COVID-19 twice a week.
• Pre-game meetings in the locker rooms are limited to 10 minutes and everyone must be masked.
• Players cannot arrive at a game venue more than 3 hours in advance of tip-off.
• On an airplane, players can only sit next to a teammate whom they will sit next to on the bench.
• “Extended socializing” with players on opposing teams is “discouraged”.
• Mask wearing rules are extended.
• If a player or staff member tests positive for COVID-19, the league can mandate twice -a-day testing for players and staff in lieu of the standard daily testing set forth in the protocols.

Finally, yesterday I mentioned the contract extension between Jim Harbaugh and the University of Michigan.  Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times had this take on that event:

“Jim Harbaugh has reached an incentive-laced contract extension to coach Michigan football through the 2025 season.

“No truth to the rumor that Ohio State boosters bankrolled the whole thing.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I want to spend today considering “media overreaction”.  There seems to be an inability to take an event and look at it analytically/dispassionately and then report on its meaning and its place in the gestalt of the moment.  Rather than treating many events in that manner, the more likely path for the story to follow is to report it; blow it out of proportion and then move on to the next “breaking news”.

Here in Curmudgeon Central, we deal with sports; therefore, I will refrain today from any remarks about all the “breaking news” that comes to us on those cable channels that try to represent themselves as “news outlets” when, in fact, they spend most of their time creating and pushing a narrative of their own and then reporting on events in a way to fit their chosen narrative. Today I just want to focus on a singular instance of a sports event and its overblown coverage.

The event took place just after the Washington WTFs beat the Eagles in Week 17 of the NFL season and Chase Young “pranced” off the field shouting that he wanted Tom Brady and that he was coming for Tom Brady – – referring to the playoff game that was to take place the following week.  Far too many sports outlets took that event and ran with it – – in a variety of directions.

• Direction #1:  This is a brash young man who does not know what he is getting himself into by calling out “The GOAT”.  Be careful what you wish for, young man…
• Direction #2:  This is a demonstration of his leadership qualities; it is why he was named as a team captain in his first year; we should lump him in with historical figures such as General Patton in terms of leadership qualities…
• Direction #3:  This is what you expect from a great player – – parentheses Chase Young is a great player – – and he is following in the footsteps of great defensive players in the past on his way to glory…

Just maybe, the more accurate “direction” for this story to have taken would have been that this is a 21-year-old young man who is exuberant and who realized in that moment that he and his team had made the playoffs and he knew that he would face the Bucs and Tom Brady the next week.   And what he did on his way to the locker room was not a momentous event; it was the venting of his exuberance – be it rational or irrational exuberance.  (Hat Tip to Alan Greenspan)

Frankly, I think all three of those storyline vectors above are flawed in some way but #3 is either wishful thinking on the part of the commentators or idolatry on their part.  Having seen Chase Young play in most of his NFL games, let me offer a dispassionate assessment of his position in the hierarchy of great NFL defensive players past and present:

• First, it is too early to know if he belongs in the pantheon of great defensive players.  Having said that, he is awfully good, and he gives great effort on every play.  I doubt that there is any team in the league that would not be happy to have him on its roster for 2021 and subsequent years.
• Now, I have heard his name put in the same context and even in the same sentence with Ray Lewis and Reggie White.  And that is where I get off this train.  Perhaps about a decade into the future, Chase Young will have earned his place in that sort of conversation, but to put him there now is premature idolatry on the part of the person(s) making the comparison.

Let us take a quick peek at the stats…

• As a 21-year-old rookie, Chase Young played in 15 regular season games.  He had 7.5 sacks, 32 solo tackles, 12 assisted tackles and 12 QB Hits.
• He also played in that one playoff game he was so exuberant about.  In that game he was much closer to a “non-factor” than he was to an NFL legend; he had 1 solo tackle and 2 assisted tackles and was on the field for 65 defensive plays.
• That’s all there is…

So far, Chase Young is not remotely in the class of the best of the elite defensive players in NFL history such as Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Dick Butkus, Mean Joe Greene and/or Deacon Jones.  Any continuation of this sort of idolatry runs the risk of labeling Young as a “guy who never reached his potential” which would be unfortunate because he did show enough to indicate that he will be a very good NFL defensive player at the very least.

The same thing goes for great leadership skills.  Skipping off the field one time and “calling out Tom Brady” one time does not put him in the same class with Ray Lewis, Sam Mills, London Fletcher or Brian Urlacher.  Give this guy some time and some room to do something that exhibits REAL leadership before anointing him as a great leader.

A former colleague of mine often made this distinction between management and leadership; he said:

“Managers do things right; leaders do the right things.”

I do not think that is a perfect distinction/delineation, but it is part of the essence of leadership along with a dose of an ability to inspire others to perform at maximum level.  Chase Young played well in 2021; as I said, he would be welcome on all 32 NFL rosters.  But other than a lot of hopping around and rah-rah demonstrations and photobombing others, I did not see anything that suggested – –  “Ray Lewis”.

Finally, Albert Einstein – someone who was and still is idolized to some degree by a segment of the population – had this to say about idolatry:

“Everyone should be respected as an individual, but no one idolized.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Tommy Lasorda died over the weekend at the age of 93.  He was originally signed by the Phillies as a minor league player but then released.  The then-Brooklyn Dodgers picked him up in the late 1940s and he spent the rest of his life with the Dodgers’ organization save for one year when he was sold or traded 3 times and wound up back with the Dodgers.  From there he became their coach or manager from 1973 to 1996.  After retiring from baseball, he became a de facto ambassador for the sport itself.

Rest in peace, Tommy Lasorda.

Even though that introductory note is somewhat dispiriting, let me stick to the topic of baseball this morning.  MLB has been on hiatus for two-and-a-half months since the end of the World Series in October.  In “normal times” we would be about a month away from “pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training” and there would have already been a lot of trades and free agent signings on the books by now.  That is not nearly the case in January 2021; there have been two “significant” trades and a free agent signing or two, but much of the expected news from the “Hot Stove League” has been silent.

The “party line” for the 2021 MLB season is that it will start on April 1^st and will run for a full 162 games.  That pronouncement was made last July even before the truncated 2020 season began.  A lot has happened since then and we have – presumably – learned a thing or two about “staging sporting events in a pandemic” since then.  There has been talk of delaying the start of the season until May and playing only 120 – 140 games for the regular season.  Naturally, the players’ union opposes that proposal so there is still some uncertainty as to when the season will begin and how long it will run.

[Aside:  I swear that the MLBPA would oppose a cancer cure if the MLB owners “invented” it and the MLB owners would do the same if the situation were reversed.]

Allow me to toss another coal into the “Hot Stove” here and cite an item from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot recently:

“Waiting game: Major League Baseball is taking its time deciding whether the National League will use the designated hitter this season, making it difficult for teams to know whom to acquire. It’s as if Commissioner Rob Manfred is begging for more bad publicity.”

In that backdrop of uncertainty, there have been two offseason trades labeled as “blockbusters”, one other trade that could be interesting in retrospective and a lot of hemming-and-hawing on the free agent market:

• “Blockbuster” #1:  This move is actually two moves that were made so close in time that they appear to have been part of a grand scheme.  The San Diego Padres acquired Blake Snell from the Rays and Yu Darvish from the Cubs in about 24 hours.  The Padres sent 4 prospects to the Rays for Snell and four more prospects to the Cubs for Darvish.  [Aside:  The Padres also signed a highly sought-after Korean infielder, Ha-Seong Kim.]  It would appear that the Padres are taking aim at the Dodgers’ hegemony in the NL West.  Interestingly, these moves might make it seem as if other teams in the NL West are far off the pace.  If that is the case, might that lead the Rockies to want to trade Nolan Arenado?  Now, that would produce a “blockbuster” swap…
• “Blockbuster” #2:  The Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians for two minor leaguers and two young players who have been OK for the Mets at the major-league level but nothing more than that.  It is hard for me to think that this is much more than a salary dump by the Indians because the talent levels of the players involved are not nearly in balance.
• Potentially interesting trade:  The Nats acquired Josh Bell from the Pirates.  Bell had a disappointing season – to say the least – in 2020 but he made the All-Star team in 2019 and he is only 28 years old.  To acquire Bell, the Nats gave up two minor league pitchers.  Is Bell an “All-Star caliber player” or was 2019 a mirage?  Could be interesting…

There are more than a hundred free agents out there who remain unsigned.  Some of them will fade into oblivion as their careers come to an end, but there are plenty of valuable assets out there on the market – – and we are theoretically only a month away from the start of Spring Training.  I will list here only a dozen that I think should be interesting to more than a few teams:

1. Trevor Bauer – Starting pitcher
2. Jackie Bradly Jr. – Outfielder
3. Alex Colome – Reliever
4. Didi Gregorius – Shortstop
5. DJ LaMehieu – Second baseman
6. Jake Odorizzi – Starting pitcher
7. Marcel Ozuna – Outfielder
8. JT Realmuto – Catcher
9. George Springer – Outfielder
10. Marcus Stroman – Starting pitcher
11. Masahiro Tanaka – Starting Pitcher
12. Justin Turner – Third baseman

We are fast approaching the time when Scott Boras will emerge from wherever he spends his time to announce that the lack of offers in the free agent marketplace – – particularly the lack of offers to his clients – – is proof positive of owner collusion. If history is a guide, he will offer hearsay evidence at best to support his collusion theories and the baseball writers will report them lending various levels of credulity to them.  And then they will evaporate until late next January…

Finally, let me close today with a note from longtime Dodgers’ infielder, Steve Garvey, about Tommy Lasorda:

“Lasorda’s standard reply when some new kid would ask directions to the whirlpool was to tell him to stick his foot in the toilet and flush it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There are 15 finalists (as players) for the Pro Football Hall of Fame who will be presented to the Selection Committee just before this year’s Super Bowl game.  The HoF bylaws limit induction classes to between four and eight.  Here is the entire list; the ones in Bold are the ones I would vote for:

1. Jared Allen – – Defensive end
2. Ronde Barber – – Cornerback/safety
3. Tony Boselli – – Offensive tackle
4. LeRoy Butler – – Safety
5. Alan Faneca – – Offensive guard
6. Tory Holt – – Wide receiver
7. Calvin Johnson – – Wide receiver
8. John Lynch – – Safety
9. Peyton Manning – – QB
10. Clay Matthews, Jr. – – Linebacker
11. Sam Mills – – Linebacker
12. Richard Seymour – – Defensive tackle/end
13. Zach Thomas – – Linebacker
14. Reggie Wayne – – Wide receiver
15. Charles Woodson – – Cornerback/safety

Another NFL related item floating around in the world ether recently is that the league is seriously considering expanding to a 17-game regular season next year.  Evidently, that possibility came about the last time the league and the NFLPA negotiated over the existing CBA; I must admit that I missed that point at the time – – or maybe my memory is approaching advanced age.  In any event, the motivation for such a move is transparent; the owners did not make a lot of money in 2020 thanks to COVID-19.  I doubt that any of the owners will be qualifying for food stamps any time soon, but the reduced revenues combined with expanded costs likely put some teams in the red for 2020; adding a regular season game adds another weekend of television programming which will immediately increase revenue.  I doubt that anyone is “playing a long game” here; I think this is purely about revenue.

At the same time – – and probably as a tip of the cap to player health and safety – – the story is that the NFL would cut the Exhibition Season from four games to two games.  While this might decrease revenues a tad, the TV revenue from a 17^th regular season game would surely offset that reduction several times over.  Fans must applaud that “trade off”; an extra game that means something in exchange for two meaningless games.

The other schedule adjustment for next year might be shifting the Super Bowl from the first Sunday in February to the second Sunday in February.  There could be a social problem with that move.

• When February begins on a Saturday – as it happens to do this year – the second Sunday of February would be February 14^th.
• Super Bowl Sunday will coincide with Valentine’s Day.
• My long-suffering wife and I have been married for almost 55 years.  Valentine’s Day is not nearly as big a deal for us now as compared to 55 years ago.
• Such may not be the case for more than a few younger folks where such an overlap of “important days” might cause significant relationship strain.

In the world of MLB, the White Sox new manager, Tony LaRussa pleaded down his DUI arrest to a charge of reckless driving.  He served 1-day of house arrest, paid a fine of $1400 and will do 20 hours of community service as punishment for the incident.  Once the case was resolved, LaRussa’s lawyer said that his client “did not have a drinking problem.”  I am not qualified to diagnose people who “have a drinking problem” but I would note that this is LaRussa’s second DUI arrest over a period of more than 10 years.  Some folks may think that is an “issue”; others may think that is “problem”; tomato; tomahto.

Another baseball happenstance involving “blood analysis” is that Mets’ infielder, Robinson Cano will be suspended for the entire 2021 season for testing positive for a PED (stanozolol).  This is Cano’s second positive test; the first was in 2018.  The fact of a second positive test is the reason behind the full-season suspension – and his forfeiture of his $24M salary for 2021.  [Aside: I do not know if his suspension is for a season or for 162 games.  That issue might be important if the 2021 MLB season is truncated somewhere below the normal 162 games.]

Cano’s contract runs through the end of the 2023 season at $24M per year.  At some point, he will return to the Mets and create a decision for them to make.  Assuming that Spring Training for the 2022 season begins at the normal time in 2022, Cano will report to the team at age 39.  He has been with the Mets for 2 seasons – – 2020 was a truncated season – – and his combined stats for those two years covers 156 games for him.  That is awfully close to a single season of participation.  His combined stats for those 156 games with the Mets, Cano had a batting average of .275 and an OBP of .321.  He hit 23 home runs, scored 69 runs and drove in 69 runs.  Those stats covered years when he was 36 and 37 years old…

By the way, if those are the stats that came along with PED use, Cano might consider asking his pharmacist for a rebate…

Finally, having mentioned Tony LaRussa’s interactions with alcohol above, let me close with this comment from poet, Dylan Thomas:

“An alcoholic is someone you don’t like who drinks as much as you do.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

It would appear as if six NFL teams will be looking for a new coach for next season.  I say “it would appear as if” because there might be a seventh team in the coaching market if negative player reaction to the Eagles’ embarrassing “strategic decisions” from last Sunday nights persists and grows.  But for now, here are the potential buyers in the coaching market:

1. Chargers
2. Falcons
3. Jaguars
4. Jets
5. Lions
6. Texans

An interesting way to look at this “marketplace” is to examine the jobseekers.  There are three categories of coaching candidates this year as is the case every year:

1. Former NFL head coaches who have been fired from previous jobs and who have rehabilitated their résumés in some fashion.
2. Current assistant coaches/coordinators whose current teams excel in the phase of the game under control of the candidate.
3. “Hot” college coaches eager to step up to the pro level.

One of the former NFL coaches whose name has been floated about in this coaching cycle is Jim Caldwell.  Should he land a job this time around, he will make NFL history.  Caldwell was the coach of the Detroit Lions from 2014 through 2017.  Here is the historic mark he could make if he gets a job with any of the 6 teams in the market:

• Since the merger of the NFL and the AFL in 1970, no head coach fired by the Detroit Lions has ever gotten another head coaching job in the NFL.

The Lions and their head coaches for the last 50 years have been a mess.  At the time of the merger, Joe Schmidt was the coach; he left in 1972 and in his 6-year tenure, the Lions won more games than they lost.  Since 1972 here are the Detroit Lions head coaches who have posted a winning record:

• Gary Moeller:  His record was 4-3 after taking over the job in mid-season in 2000.
• Jim Caldwell:  His record was 36-28 in his 4-year tenure.

That’s the list, folks.

The current assistant coaches/coordinators are a list of the “usual suspects”.  Their names have been on the grapevine all season long.  The closest thing to a “surprise entry” on the list is Joe Brady.  He has been an assistant in the NFL for only 1 year after a spectacular season as the offensive coordinator at LSU when the Tigers won the CFP championship.  Brady is only 31 years old; if he gets a job in this cycle, it would be a rapid ascension up the ladder of the coaching profession.

The “hot college coach” for this year is actually a “hot former college coach” who has been on TV for the last two years – – Urban Meyer.  Rumor has it that the Jaguars and the Chargers have Meyer on their radar and that Meyer’s agent is seeking a multi-year deal worth $12M per year plus incentives.  Urban Meyer has been a winner – – a big winner – – in all of his collegiate jobs; that is the reason his agent could make such contractual demands with a straight face – – if in fact the rumors are true, and the agent actually did that.  Here are a couple of significant differences between a college head coaching job and an NFL head coaching job that would give me pause before I hired a college coach to a “multi-year deal at $12M per”:

• College coaches get to pick the players they want.  Coaches go and schmooze parents and players to get top shelf talent; coaches who can do that successfully about 15 times a year are pretty much assured of success.  Not so in the NFL; a coach may covet a player and the Draft will assign that player to another team; the coach is powerless to “change the player’s mind”.
• There is no salary cap in college football.
• In college, the coach has imperial power.  For example, if he does not want players or assistant coaches to give interviews, he can make that rule and enforce it with suspensions and/or playing time.  In the NFL, the CBA requires players to be available to the press; a coach who does not like that will have to submit to that rule.  His “powers” are limited by higher authority.

None of this is to say that Urban Meyer – – or any other “hot” collegiate coach – – cannot adapt to the NFL situation very quickly.  Matt Rhule made the necessary adaptations with the Panthers this season, but Rhule is not getting $12M per year.

Instead of pontificating as to which team should select which coaching candidate, I think the more interesting mental exercise is to look at the jobs and think about which job is the best one for the jobseekers to chase.  If you believe that the only road to success in the NFL is to have a bona fide franchise QB in hand, then the Jags and Chargers rush to the top of the list.  The Jags have the first pick in next year’s draft and Trevor Lawrence looks to me to be the best QB to come out of college since Andrew Luck in 2012.  Meanwhile, the Chargers have Justin Herbert under contract and his rookie year makes it clear that he is a franchise QB.

If you believe that the best way to turn a team’s fortunes around is to radically change the roster, then the Jets and the Jags become most interesting.  Both teams have 2 first round picks this year and both teams have more than $80M in salary cap room.  That means a roster shuffling is more than possible.  Comparing the Jags and Jets on this dimension brings up an interesting economic difference:

• Success in the NY/NJ area brings the opportunity for added endorsements and celebrity status.  Success in the NY area also means paying State income tax in either NY or NJ in the 9-10% range.  For a player making $5M a year, that means giving the State authorities $500K per year.
• Success in Jacksonville does not assure endorsements nor celebrity status nearly to the degree that success does in NY/NJ.  However, the state income tax in Florida is ZERO.

As Samuel L. Jackson is wont to say on the Capital One ads:

“What’s in your wallet?”

Finally, since I mentioned taxes on wealthy young men who play football in the NFL, let me close with this observation from Oscar Wilde:

“Rich bachelors should be heavily taxed.  It is not fair that some men should be happier than others.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Until the controversy engendered by the Eagles/WTFs game on Sunday Night Football changed my plans, today’s rant was supposed to have been yesterday’s.  Over the weekend, I thought I would look back at 2020 – – clearly a year that will live in infamy – – to find a few positive sporting events to take the edge off the image of 2020.  Then I wanted to look ahead to 2021 and identify what I hoped might happen in 2021 to return to “sports normalcy”.  Here is what I came up with for 2020 in hindsight:

1. In 2020, the CFP produced a great championship game.  Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence went head-to-head and put on a show.
2. Andy Reid and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, and that victory removed the one stain on Reid’s coaching career.  I believe he is a great football coach and now he should be a Hall of Fame football coach.
3. The LA Dodgers broke a longstanding World Series drought.  Dodgers’ fans have had many World series disappointments; the team was 6-17 in world Series appearances until the Dodgers beat the Rays in 6 games in October.
4. David Ayres was an employee of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  He was a goalie for the team in practices; he drove the Zamboni; he maintained lots of the team infrastructure.  He also served as the team’s “house goalie” and he had to suit up for the Carolina Hurricanes when they needed an emergency goalie.  Ayres played for the Hurricanes and beat the Maple Leafs – – his employer – – in the game.  That is screenplay material.
5. Alex Smith made it back to the field as an NFL QB after almost losing his life and/or his leg during myriad surgeries to repair his broken leg.
6. In baseball, Daniel Bard made it back to MLB after being out of the game since 2013.  Bard suffered a loss of control and that usually means a pitcher is finished with baseball.  Bard somehow found a way to regain his control and record 6 saves for the Colorado Rockies.

If things go well in 2021, sports may return to a semblance of  its regular self and rhythm.  Here is what I hope to see in 2021:

1. I hope to see sports events with a full complement of fans in the stands or in the arenas.  Crowd noise is a whole lot better than “piped-in crowd noise”.
2. I hope to see March Madness – – even if it needs to be played in April or even May.
3. I hope the Olympics happen in Tokyo this summer.  I have no particular affection for the Olympic Games themselves, but the athletes who will participate have been training for most of their lives to participate.  Organizers have said that if the Games do not happen in 2021, they will be canceled and not postponed for another year, so I hope they take place as scheduled for the sake of the athletes.
4. I hope to be able to go and see a minor league baseball game on a warm summer evening later this year.
5. I hope the NFL learns from the 2020 season that its future seasons can be considered complete without staging any more Pro Bowl Games.

Bob Molinaro had this comment recently in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Futurewatch: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence may be relieved that the Jags jumped the line on the Jets for the No. 1 draft pick, but how is the sport helped when the top quarterback prospect plays in an NFL backwater?”

My response to that is to say that the only way to avoid having “top prospects” at any position play in an NFL backwater is to avoid putting teams in backwaters.  If the NFL were to decide tomorrow to expand from 32 teams to 36 teams and to put all 4 of the expansion franchises in the US of A, they should pay heed to the “desirability” of the locale for the new teams as much as to the willingness of a prospective owner of the new team to pay the exorbitant franchise fee.

What makes for an NFL “backwater”?  Too often folks equate market size with the desirability of a franchise venue.  That measure is true at the extremely high end of the scale; franchises in NY, LA, Chicago etc. are generally desirable based on the sheer number of fans in the area.  However, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are desirable based on their history of professional football.  Cincy is a successful franchise based on history too; it was Paul Brown who left Cleveland and started his own team in Cincy.

There is more to having a successful/desirable NFL franchise than market size.  One of the hidden factors, I believe, is the fundamental sports interest of the region where the franchise is to be located.  Take the northeast US plus the “snow belt” of the upper mid-west.  I count 11 or 12 NFL teams in that region and the only ones that may or may not be thought of as “backwaters” would be Detroit and Buffalo.  [Aside: I think Detroit is one; I do not think Buffalo is, but others might.]  Here is my theory as to why that is the case:

• In that region, MLB is a dominant sport and has been for a long time.  NFL football grew up there as “something to do when there is no more MLB”.  Families could still attend pro sports events when MLB had shut down for the year.  Having been in that situation for 50-80 years, the NFL franchises there are now also important local foundation pieces.

Now look at the region of the southeastern US – – whare Jax is located.  There are 8 NFL teams located there.  Washington and New Orleans are successful and desirable franchises – – if one ignores the ownership of the WTFs.  The other franchises are successful, but none are the pillar of their city.  My reason:

• College football is the king in the southeastern US and not NFL football.  And, unlike the situation in the northeast where MLB is dominant, college football and NFL football overlap in their seasons.  Jax hosts the Georgia/Florida game every year; it is a bigger event by a mile than any Jags’ game has been.  Jax is a city in a college football dominated region with merely an NFL franchise.

The problem is not that Trevor Lawrence will be toiling for a while in a backwater; the problem is that the NFL put a team in a backwater and has failed to recognize that and make it right.

Finally, I said above that I looked forward to attending a minor league baseball game this summer; and of course, I would partake of a hot dog while in attendance.  So, let me offer this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Hot Dog:  The toenails, lips and eyebrows of various animals served on a bun.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I had a totally different rant planned for today; then, Sunday Night Football happened.  Resetting the stage, the WTFs make the playoffs with a win; the Giants make the playoffs if the Eagles win.  It is the final game of the year and it means nothing to the Eagles so giving some of their starters the day off and playing some “prospects” is to be expected.  And then, Sunday Night Football happened.

Let me make two things clear:

1. I have no inside information here – – and I have no intention to do any investigative work to uncover any.
2. I cannot read minds.

Having said all that, I am not certain that the Eagles played that game to win the game.  Moreover, given the commentary from Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth, I suspect that they too wonder why various decisions/ploys took place in that game.  I am not suggesting that the Eagles “took a dive” in the game but I would not like to have to defend what happened in that game from the point of view of logic and reason.

The Giants’ fans are understandably disappointed in the results from last night; many of them have Twitter accounts; the fallout from those two premises is pretty easy to imagine.  So, let me say that some of the gall and ire expressed on Twitter might be directed at the Giants’ themselves because all they would have had to do to get into the playoffs in 2020 is to win more than 6 regular season games.  Fans can and should be disappointed in the season’s outcome.

There were 3 “strategic” decisions by the Eagles that still have me shaking my head this morning:

1. Leading 14-10 with 1:52 left to play in the first half, the Eagles got the ball at their own 26 yardline.  The Eagles run offense had been solid – if not eye-popping – and the WTFs had all 3 timeouts left.  Logic calls for a running play on first down; that would require the WTFs to spend a timeout if they anticipate getting the ball back in a reasonable field position.  The Eagles threw the ball 3 times; they gained 0 yards and punted the ball back to the WTFs having consumed 15 seconds off the clock and causing the WTFs to spend none of their timeouts.
2. With about 2 minutes left in the third quarter, the Eagles trailed 17-14 and had the ball at the WTFs’ 4-yardline; it was 4^th and goal.  Eschewing a field goal to tie the game, the Eagles tried a pass play that failed, and they turned the ball over on downs.
3. Starting with the Eagles’ first possession in the 4^th quarter – it is still a one-score game – the Eagles insert Nate Sudfeld into the game at QB.  Granted the Eagles braintrust could never have foreseen that he would throw an INT and lose a fumble on his first two possessions, but what was he doing in that game under those circumstances in the first place.

[Aside:  Nate Sudfeld’s stats were 5 of 12 for 32 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT plus a lost fumble.  Oh, by the way, he took two sacks too.  He has been a clipboard holder since being drafted in 2016, but last night in the 4^th quarter of a meaningful game, it was imperative that he get some “evaluation time”?]

After the game, Pedersen asserted that he had been coaching to win and that Sudfeld deserved to play that 4^th quarter of the game because he had “been here 4 years”.  Excuse me, but the fact that he has been with the Eagles for 4 years and had seen the field in all of 3 games and had thrown 2 passes in his career tells me that when you were coaching to win in those previous years, you felt it was best for him to be somewhere other than on the field.

The folks at NBC were mystified too.  Michaels and Collinsworth almost asked aloud what the Hell was Doug Pedersen thinking/doing in the second half of that game.  The NBC stat mavens came up with – – and displayed on screen – – the Eagles’ outcome with a win or a loss in the game.  If the Eagles had won, they would have the 9^th overall draft pick next April; now that they have lost, they will have the 6^th overall pick in that draft.  I do not ever recall that sort of information being presented to the audience in a game unless it involved the overall #1 pick.  To me, it seems as if the people doing the game were sufficiently gobsmacked by what they saw unfolding that they felt the need to come up with some sort of explanation.

Cris Collinsworth is noted for his candor on the air.  His candor is probably the reason why almost every NFL fanbase thinks that he absolutely hates their team.  Without ever using the word “tanking”, he said several times that he did not understand what the Eagles were doing and/or why they were doing it until finally he said – – this is probably a paraphrase because I do not have the game recorded and cannot go back and listen to get his exact wording:

“I could not do what the Eagles did tonight.”

From a logical standpoint, I have no answers for what happened in last night’s game.  Doug Pedersen says he was “coaching to win”; I cannot refute that with facts just as I cannot find a lot of facts that support that assertion.  My impression is that the Eagles played out the string which would have been understandable and unremarkable had the WTFs been leading the game by 2 TDs in the second half.  But once it became a winnable game late in the third quarter, the Eagles owed it to their fans – – and to NFL football fans of every stripe – – to make strategic decisions that more obviously align with trying to win the game.

Cue Herm Edwards here…

Finally, Dwight Perry had this comment on the New Year celebration in NYC and how it related to the NFL:

“Thanks to COVID-19, this Dec. 31 in Times Square will mark the first time in 113 years that there won’t be any New Yorkers on hand to witness a ball getting dropped.

“In other words, no different than a Jets home game in 2020.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………