The Sports Curmudgeon

Just to set the stage here, I’m writing this on Friday morning and so I won’t pretend that I took the Colts over the Saints last night. But they sure did look good in dismantling the Saints 41-10, didn’t they? The over/under line for that game started the week at 51; that would have made the game a push. But there had to be a huge influx of money on the OVER because the line climbed to 53.5 at most sportsbooks by Thursday afternoon and to 54 at two of them. And all of those OVER bets were losers.

The lesson here is that an influx of money on one side of a wager is not necessarily an indicator that someone knows something about the game…

I want to urge everyone reading this not to use anything here as part of your decision-making processes regarding wagers you might make that involve actual negotiable currency. If you did that, you’d probably be dumb enough to go to the Olympics, win a gold medal, and then have it bronzed.

General Comments:

You are going to see a lot of “Brett Favre moments” on ESPN this season because he is going to set a bunch of records this year unless he gets carted off the field in a body cast. Here are some milestones well within his reach this year:

Favre’s seventh TD pass this year will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of Dan Marino’s 420 TDs.

Favre’s fifth INT this year will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of George Blanda’s 277.

Favre’s second win this year will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of John Elway’s 148.

Favre’s 138th pass attempt will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of Dan Marino’s 8,358.

Here is a milestone that may or may not be within reach for Brett Favre this year:

He needs 3,862 yards passing to pass Dan Marino’s all-time record of 61,361.

Get set for one new rule change in the NFL this year. Players are only permitted to spike the ball in the end zone after a TD. So, if a player catches an eight-yard pass for a first down and spikes the ball, he will draw a five-yard penalty. That doesn’t bother me; in fact, I’d rather see it be a 15-yard penalty to be sure that no team has it happen twice this year.

Here’s something from Randy Galloway in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that I had not realized. The Dallas Cowboys have not won a playoff game in 10 years. I would have lost that bet…

There are a few games this opening weekend that look to have all the appeal of pigsty in the middle of the dog days of August. You’ll probably be able to tell which ones they are as I go through the list.

KC at Houston – 3 (37.5): You may need to carry some air-freshener with you if you watch this one. I know the exhibition games are meaningless, but KC only scored 32 points in those meaningless games. At best, these two teams are mediocre so you can surely find something more interesting to do than to wager on this one. Because I said I’d pick every game – and for no other reason – I’ll take Houston at home and lay the points.

Denver – 3 at Buffalo (37): You know how Mike Shanahan looks as if steam is about to burst from every orifice in his head when the Broncos are stymied? I think he might look like that this weekend. I’ll take Buffalo at home with the points.

Pittsburgh – 4 at Cleveland (36.5): The Mike Tomlin-era is not off to a very respectful start with the Vegas oddsmakers; Cleveland is not a good team. In what I think will be low scoring games, I usually prefer to take the points, but I can’t do that here. Give me the Steelers and I’ll lay the points.

Tennessee at Jax – 7 (37.5): This is the largest spread of the week. Either the schedule-makers managed to put together all close games this week or the oddsmakers haven’t gotten a line on all of the teams just yet. I want the Titans here with the points please. And Tennessee is at +300 on the money line at several sportsbooks; at that price, they are worth a wager to win the game outright.

Carolina at St. Louis – 1 (42.5): I think the Panthers can legitimately aspire to the playoffs – albeit as the second NFL wildcard team. I just don’t see the Rams being much of anything this year. Give me the Panthers and that point.

Philly – 3 at Green Bay (42.5): Lambeau Field is not the home-field advantage that it used to be and this Green Bay team is not going to be confused with the Lombardi incarnations of the Packers. But the team and the fans should be up for the season opener here. Andy Reid’s teams typically start fast. So I see this game as a high scoring affair and I’ll take the game OVER.

Atlanta at Minnesota – 3 (35.5): Joey Harrington versus Tarvaris Jackson; give me a break! This game is a stinker. Unless you have a blood relative playing in it or coaching one of these fetid teams, watch something else. And for heaven’s sake don’t bet on this game for real. The only “angle” I see in this game is that Minnesota has a good defense and Atlanta’s offense should be one step above feeble. So, I’ll take the Vikes, lay the points, and hope that Tarvaris Jackson can find a way not to trip over his own two feet for 60 minutes on Sunday.

Miami at Washington – 3 (34.5): Miami has a good defense and should keep the Skins’ offense in check. Miami also has a weak offense, which should have difficulty scoring even against a marginal Skins’ defense. Having said that, you’d think that I see this game as a 10-7 game; I don’t. Somehow, points will show up and so I’ll take the game OVER this very, very low number.

New England – 6 at Jets (41): This is one of the three best games of the weekend. These are two good teams who happen to be in the same division so the game has a heightened degree of importance. I think the Pats are sitting on a big season so I’ll take them here and lay the points on the road.

Tampa Bay at Seattle – 5.5 (41): Seattle is the better team here even though the Bucs now have an NFL caliber QB who knows the West Coast offense. Add to that the trip diagonally across the country for the Bucs and the home field advantage that the Seahawks enjoy at Qwest Field and you get a big win for Seattle. I’ll take the Seahawks and lay the points.

Chicago at San Diego – 6 (42): This is the best game of the weekend. Nothing like a wee spot of pressure for Norv Turner in his opening game. He’s a six-point favorite over a Super Bowl participant last year at home. These are two good defenses. These can be two good offenses but Rex Grossman is hardly what you’d call a reliable QB. Then again, Rex is in his contract year … Norv Turner is also coaching against his brother Ron who is the offensive coordinator for the Bears. And when the Bears fired Ron Rivera as defensive coordinator after last season, Rivera took the job in San Diego. Lots of story lines here but the bottom line is I want the Chargers at home and I’ll lay the points.

Detroit at Oakland – 2.5 (40): This game stinketh !!! Last year, these two squads finished with a combined record of 5-27. There aren’t enough candles on the planet to make this game smell good. I think the Lions are the better team. I know the Lions tend to play very meekly on the road. The key to this game is the Lions’ suspect defense against the Raiders’ “MIA offense”. I can’t believe I am actually going to take the Lions on the road. But I’ll do just that with those points.

Giants at Dallas – 5.5 (44): In a move that shocked no one with an IQ over 72, Michael Strahan showed up to play for the Giants right after they closed down training camp. I wonder if he plans to practice with the team at all this season or if he’ll just beam down to the locker room on game day… By the middle of this year, Strahan will not be a starter at DE or an every down player at DE. That ought to make him a joy to be around. I like Dallas to win and cover here because their defense is better than the Giants’ defense while the two offenses are similar in ability.

Baltimore at Cincy – 3 (40): This is the “early Monday night game” and it is one of the three best games of the weekend. Carson Palmer makes the Bengals’ offense formidable; the Ravens’ defense is formidable even when half asleep. The Bengals’ defense couldn’t stop a run in a pair of pantyhose last year; the Ravens’ offense tries not to lose games for their defense. If there were value in playing the Ravens on the money like, I’d do that because I think they will win the game; but the odds are not appealing there. This should be an entertaining game and I’ll take the Ravens with the points.

Arizona at SF – 3 (44): This is the “late Monday night game” as the NFL puts out a Monday doubleheader to get the season started. This game does not have the “cachet” of the earlier game but it’s not one of the week’s horrid games either. I see lots and lots of points here so I want the game OVER. It will take some kind of excitement to keep East Coast fans awake to tune in for the second half that likely won’t start much before midnite.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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Last weekend, I made four selections in Mythical Picks. All four were winners:

Wisconsin covered against Washington State

Ga.Tech not only covered against Notre Dame, they beat them by 30.

UNLV covered against Utah St. by a point on a late TD drive

Navy/Temple stayed UNDER 52.

Now if I were one of those guys on the infomercials for betting services, I’d be shouting as loudly as I could that I had a perfect week and I made my customers (maybe mythical ones?) thousands of dollars and I’d be willing to do the same for you if you paid me a small fee and you really need to call my toll-free number and… But I don’t do that. These picks are for fun; I put them out there for free; and because they are free, you know exactly what they are worth.

Let me candid here. If I could actually pick four out of four selections (or even three out of four) reliably every week, I’d own my own island by now. And I don’t…

So, as they say in the ads for mutual funds, past performance is no indicator of future success. No one would be stupid enough to use any information here as the basis for making a real wager using real money. Doing that would make you so dumb that you wouldn’t even be the smartest guy in the first four rows at a WWE pay-per-view event.

General Comments:

When talking about the Appalachian State upset of Michigan, lots of people say it was the biggest upset of all time. [I don’t know, but I’m sort of partial to David over Goliath in that category but whatever…] In college football, I recall a Temple/Va Tech game about 10 – 15 years ago when Temple went to Blacksburg as an underdog of 35-40 point proportion and won the game. Yes, I know that Temple is not actually a Division 1-AA school; but in actuality, they aren’t necessarily better than a lot of Division 1-AA schools.

I guess we now know why Charlie Weis kept his opening day QB selection a secret until game time. They all stunk! Forget that the Notre Dame only scored 3 points in the game; the total offense for the Irish was 122 yards. Notre Dame travels to Penn State this week and based on last week’s showings, the Irish are going to open the season at 0-2. Then they go to Michigan…

After the debacle, Charlie Weis said all the predictable things; they had to “rally the troops” and they had to “circle the wagons”. Good plan, coach. Now, don’t forget to tell the guys that after the wagons are circled they need to aim those rifles outside the circle…

In the past, I criticized Penn State for scheduling FIU, Temple and Buffalo as three out of conference games. Based on last week’s showing, maybe scheduling Notre Dame this year is a fourth patty-cake team?

Texas was a 40-point favorite over Arkansas State last week and only won by 8. But that’s better than what happened to Michigan and Notre Dame…

Duke lost to UConn last week. Duke led at the half 14-11. Then Duke came out in the second half and collapsed; they lost the second half 34-0.

I suggested last week that the Hawaii/Northern Colorado score would be 63-10. Sorry about that, Hawaii won 63-6. Colt Brennan threw for 4 TDs and 412 yards - - in the first half of the game. This week, Hawaii flies to Louisiana to play La Tech. The over/under for that game is 76.

Minnesota’s new football coach, Tim Brewster, said he was going to go from frat house to frat house to drum up interest in Gopher football. He said there were 54,000 students at Minnesota and there was no reason that the Gophers should play to any home crowds below 60,000. Then his team played their first game and lost at home to Bowling Green 32-31 in OT. I have an idea that’s not the way for him to win over new and loyal fans.

The Nick Saban Era at Alabama needs perspective. Alabama travels to Vanderbilt this week and the Tide is a 3.5-point favorite over the Commodores. Somewhere in the cosmos, Bear Bryant is weeping at the sight of this betting line…

By the way, do you think Nick Saban might be interested in the job at Michigan? It’s likely to come open at the end of this season…

Boise State is a 3-point favorite on the road against Washington. Just to show you that Boise State may have arrived as a recognized football program, consider that Boise State has never beaten a PAC-10 team on the road or any BCS Conference school on the road. [Last year’s bowl victory over Oklahoma was at a neutral site.] Yet, they are favored this week over a team that won big at Syracuse last week.

After the first week, the Big Ten has only one team in the Top 10 (Wisconsin) and only two others ranked between eleven and twenty-five (Penn State and Ohio State). Maybe the Big Ten isn’t all that good this year?

Texas started the week as a 7-point favorite over TCU. Texas was uninspiring in their win against Arkansas State last week while TCU shut out Baylor. However, it seems as if a whole lot of money has been coming in on Texas during the week because now the line is 9 at one sportsbook and 9.5 about everywhere else. That is a big movement in a college football line. I have no idea if this is “smart money” that is showing up or if this is “bet with your heart money”. It’s a good game to avoid from a betting perspective.

Games of Interest:

Usually, I only find a handful of NCAA games interesting – particularly in the early part of the season. For some reason, this weekend presents some lines that are surprising and so there are more games of interest than usual.

Oregon at Michigan – 7.5 (63): Two good offenses play two mediocre defenses. I would not be surprised to see either team beat the other one by a double-digit margin so I won’t try to guess the winner here and the margin. But I do like the OVER here.

VA Tech at LSU – 12 (40): Two really good defenses play two mediocre offenses. The Hokie offensive line let East Carolina sack the QB four times last week; might LSU have a pass rush equal to ECU? I think this game stays UNDER.

Bowling Green at Michigan State – 17.5 (57.5): Bowling Green may be flat as a tortilla this week after pointing to Minnesota in Week 1 and getting that win. On the other hand, this line says that Michigan State is 18.5 points better than Minnesota; do I believe that? No, I don’t. I’ll assume that Bowling Green uses last week’s game as a confidence-builder and plays similarly to last week. The line is fat; I’ll take Bowling Green with the points here.

Rice at Baylor – 6 (44): Rice was a feelgood story last year. They opened this year with a loss to Nicholls State by giving up a safety in the 4th quarter. I think the college football feelgood story will come from somewhere else this year. Baylor isn’t any kind of powerhouse; they were clobbered by TCU last week, but TCU is a top-25 team. Baylor is at home and they ought to be better than Nicholls State… I’ll take Baylor and lay the points.

Nebraska – 7.5 at Wake Forest (50): I couldn’t watch all of the Wake Forest/BC game last weekend, but while I was watching, BC moved the ball at will – and gave up two defensive TDs to the Deacons. Nebraska seems finally to have morphed from its power running offense to a spread passing offense. I didn’t see anything last week that would lead me to believe Wake Forest can stop that. I’ll take Nebraska here and lay the points - - but I sure would be happier if the line were only 7.

South Florida at Auburn – 7 (39): Auburn trailed Kansas State at the end of the third quarter and had to rally to win. South Florida won by two TDs - - against Elon. Auburn’s defense will probably be just a tad stingier than Elon’s was. I like Auburn here; I’ll lay the points.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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As the NCAA Football season is about to begin, it’s time to engage in a bit of overview of the college football scene so that we can look for happenings that might just fall below the radar in the big time world of sports journalism. So please consider:

Linfield College (Oregon) has 52 consecutive winning seasons in football. No other school can make that claim; in fact, this represents the longest streak of winning seasons in sports in the US. Can they make it 53 straight winning seasons?

Duke was winless last year. Actually, they start this season with a 20 game losing streak, which is the worst in the nation, and the Blue Devils are 9-72 in their past 81 games. If this does not convince you that Duke is a “basketball school”, then I think you may be beyond hope.

Stanford has a new coach this year; Jim Harbaugh takes the helm and hopes to rebuild the Stanford program. There’s good news and bad news awaiting the new coach and his staff. The good news is that they have 17 starters back from last year’s team. The bad news is that those 17 starters return from a team that went 1-11 last season.

Texas A&M has a tailback – Jorvorskie Lane – who weighs 282 lbs. On third and short, you can count on Lane getting the ball or you can count on a fake to Lane and a bomb to a wide receiver on the fly pattern. Quarterback sneaks should be rare in College Station this year.

Gregg Drinnan had this note in the Kamloops Daily News recently:

“Alter High in Ohio has a 315-pound offensive lineman who can bench press 260 pounds and squat 525. Holley Mangold is a 17-year-old senior and her — yes, her — brother Nick is on the New York Jets’ offensive line.”

Penn State plays a bad out of conference schedule this year with nail-biters against FIU, Buffalo and Temple on the dance card. Someone in State College, PA ought to be ashamed.

Auburn’s homecoming opponent in November is Tennessee Tech from the Ohio Valley Conference. Someone in Auburn/Opelika, AL ought to be ashamed.

College Football Gameday has been a staple on ESPN for a while now; college football has been one of the important parts ESPN’s programming since they went on the air more than 25 years ago. Finally, they instituted a daily program – College Football Today – devoted exclusively to college football and one has to wonder what took them so long. After all, this is the network that created NASCAR Now and NHL 2Night; notwithstanding the intrinsic significance of those programming efforts, far more people watch college football games than watch NASCAR or NHL games. The afternoon time slot for the program is less than perfect, but it does represent a step in the right direction for college football fans.

Every once in a while, someone makes a comment that sums up all you really need to know about a story that has been around for a while and about which you may have missed some of the nuances. Here’s Greg Cote of the Miami Herald to fill you in on all you need to know about the University of Miami moving their games out of the Orange Bowl starting next season:

“City of Miami officials are reeling over losing UM, and stinging from criticism that years of neglecting the OB [Orange Bowl] all but forced the Canes to leave. Apparently the city erred in trusting that confidential internal study that suggested fans’ stadium experience is actually enhanced by leaky plumbing causing torrents of cascading urine.”

Games of Interest:

There are a lot of colossal mismatches in this first week of college football. I hope that the USC fans are entertained with that game against Idaho where USC is a 46.5-point favorite. Oklahoma and Texas are both 40-point favorites at home against teams they should not be playing in the first place. Penn State is a 37 point favorite against Florida International in State College where more than 100,000 fans should cease to pay attention somewhere in the middle of the second quarter. Meanwhile, poor Rutgers doesn’t get any respect this year either; it is only a 32-point favorite over Buffalo in a glorified scrimmage for the Scarlet Knights.

Those 100,000+ fans in State College will witness NCAA football history when Penn State takes the field on Saturday; no, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the visiting Florida International University team. Joe Paterno will start his 42nd consecutive season coaching the same college team and that has never happened before. At the moment, the record belongs to Amos Alonzo Stagg who coached at the University of Chicago for 41 consecutive seasons.

Early season college football has games that count; any team in the ridiculous “pre-season top 25” had better not lose its opening game if it aspires to BCS glory in January 2008. Nevertheless, these are usually not great betting opportunities because the make-up of college teams tends to change dramatically from year to year and until you actually see them on the field in games that mean something more than intrasquad scrimmages, you really don’t know what you are betting on or against. Therefore, my picks this week will be only a few.

Cal began the 2006 season as a trendy pick for the surprise team of the year who might just challenge for the national title. And then they opened on the road at Tennessee and got clobbered by a score of 35-18 - - and it wasn’t nearly that close. Starting at 0-1, their season never really recovered and the team was a big disappointment. This week, people who believe in revenge will be taking Cal at home to beat Tennessee. In college football, revenge is overrated since both Cal and Tennessee will be fielding different teams this weekend than the ones that played last year. It may be the best game of the week between two pretty good teams – Cal is ranked 12th in those pre-season polls and Tennessee is ranked 15th. But I shan’t be wagering on the game. If I were to wager, I’d probably take the home team just because they didn’t have to cross three time zones to get to the stadium. Oh, and USA Today says that Tennessee’s QB has a broken finger but plans to play anyway; just a bit more uncertainty to make the game even more inscrutable.

Another big time traveling game is Washington at Syracuse. Neither team looks to be very good this year; each would be a surprise to show up in one of the minor bowl games at the end of the year. I shan’t be making a pick on that game either, but once again there is that “crossing-the-time-zones” factor.

Hawaii QB, Colt Brennan set a record last year for most TDs thrown in a season. He’s back in school this year and if he’s going to break his own record, then opponents like Northern Colorado are ones the Rainbows need to schedule. I can’t find an over/under line on this game but just for fun I’ll “guestimate” the total score here at 73 points – Hawaii 63, Northern Colorado 10.

If Duke is going to break that 20 game losing streak, this might be their best shot at doing it. Duke is a mere 4-point underdog to Connecticut this week. If they don’t win here, they head out for road games in the next four weeks. The only other two games that seem winnable are Northwestern (on the road) and UNC (over Thanksgiving weekend).

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame – 2 (46): If Cal/Tennessee isn’t the best game on opening weekend, then this one is. Home field at South Bend has to be worth three points and probably a tad more than that; so, this line says that Notre Dame should be a slight underdog on a neutral field. That sounds about right to me. Georgia Tech lost the opening game last year to Notre Dame for a couple of reasons – one of which is their QB could not throw the ball such that it would hit the ground reliably. He’s no longer there. I’ll take Tech with the points here. By the way, Notre Dame has Michigan and Penn State coming up on the schedule soon; if they lose here they could dig themselves a huge hole in terms of making themselves bowl-eligible.

Navy – 21 at Temple (52): This is a Temple home game meaning a throng of about 5,000 Temple fans will show up for the game. Hey, it’s the season opener so it should be a bigger than usual crowd. In any event, they will be outnumbered by the Navy partisans. Navy will run the ball, run the ball, and then run the ball some more. I see the clock running inexorably in this game so I’ll take the UNDER here.

UNLV – 6 at Utah State (47): Utah State was awful last year; they couldn’t score and they couldn’t keep the other guys from scoring. For the sake of clarity, let me be certain to point out that’s not good. I don’t think UNLV has any pretensions to greatness, but I’ll take them here and lay the points just because they have such a bad opponent staring at them across the line of scrimmage.

Washington State at Wisconsin – 13 (no line): Wisconsin might just win the Big Ten this year and be really good. Washington State has a talented QB and a couple of guys who can catch the ball but not much else. Oh yeah, and they have multiple time zones to cross to reach the stadium. I’ll take Wisconsin at home and lay the points.

Good luck.

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Last week, Mythical Picks made three selections. The record was 2-1 for a weekly Mythical Profit of $90. Let me recap the Mythical Picking Season up to now as we head toward the Super Bowl - - the Grand Crescendo:

Reg Seas: 146-128-4 + $ 850

Playoffs: 8-4 + $ 420

Total NFL:154-132-4 +$1270

Allow me to reiterate that I will not “go crazy” this weekend and make a bunch of silly bets [such as the over/under for how long it will take to sing the National Anthem] just because I’m ahead. See last week’s Mythical Picks for the explanation as to why I’m not doing that. I will make three wagers this week for a total of $300 Mythical Dollars. That means that the worst I can do for the year is to come out ahead by $970 Mythical Dollars.

My long-suffering wife and I are leaving town tomorrow and taking an overnight train to Chicago to visit #1 son and his lovely bride. We’ll watch the Super Bowl game with them and some of their friends in Chicago. If the Bears win, I don’t think there will be a lack of exuberance – rational or irrational – in the room. That explains why these picks are a bit earlier in the week than normal.

And of course, no one should take anything written here and use it as the basis for making a wager on the Super Bowl. If you did that you would be so dumb that if a woman offered you “super sex”, you’d think for a few moments and then take the soup.

General Comments:

To hear some of the analysts talk about this game, the single factor to decide the outcome will be whether or not the Bears’ defense can stop the Colts’ offense. The Bears’ offense and the Colts’ defense must feel like Rodney Dangerfield about now. But the points scored by each team is the same. Granted, the Bears have more scores from their defense/special teams, but they all count the same on the scoreboard. There aren’t any style points awarded for how teams score.

Looking at the regular season stats, would it surprise you to know that the Colts gained more yards per rushing attempt than did the Bears? I was surprised. On the assumption that neither team will turn the ball over a half dozen times this weekend, I think this game should stay close. The game could come down to a battle of the kickers and both teams have good ones – based on this year’s performances. You may recall when Cris Carter was playing, Chris Berman and Tom Jackson on ESPN always used to say that all Carter did was catch TD passes. Well, along those lines, all Adam Vinatieri does is kick winning field goals in playoff and Super Bowl games.

Indy – 7 “at” Chicago (49): Obviously, you should shop the line here because it varies from place to place and small differences can be important. I want to make three wagers on this game. I want the Bears with the points; I think the game will stay close. I want the game UNDER; I believe that there will be more field goals than TDs. And I want a $100 money-line bet on the Bears to win the game outright at +240. Frankly, I think that price is a bit lower than it would be for a game with a TD spread in the regular season, but I still think it is worth a shot.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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After last year’s less than laudatory pre-season analysis, I toyed with the idea of not doing one this year. But fools rush in where angels fear to tread; and if you’ve read these rants for any length of time now, you realize that I have a propensity for foolishness. And so, it is now time for me to go back and look at what I predicted four months ago and give myself a grade.

I made all of the predictions here back on 4 September 2006. It shouldn’t take anyone very long to see that was before any of the regular season games happened. Of course, after you see the sorry state of many of these predictions, you’ll not harbor any suspicions that I fudged any of the predictions.

AFC West:

I had the Broncos winning this division “comfortably”. That didn’t happen. I said they’d even have a bye in the playoffs; they didn’t even make the playoffs. However, I did say that it would take a meltdown of Chernobyl proportion by Jake Plummer for them to lose the division; and indeed, he led the Broncos offense so far south that he lost his job to a rookie QB who was clearly not ready to start in the NFL. I gave the Chargers a 10-win season and they exceeded that total by 4 wins; I thought the Chiefs would only win 7 games; turns out they only lost 7 games. And while I had the Raiders last in the division, I thought they’d win 6 games. Take the two they won this year and add it to their wins in September plus October next year and you might not come up to 6 wins. At least I had two things dead on with regard to the Raiders. I said that Aaron Brooks was mistake prone (actually, I said he committed more errors in a month than Jake Plummer did in a season.) and I said that the Raiders offensive line stunk. You have to admit, I had those two things “spot on” as they might say in Britain.

I’ll give myself a C – for the predictions here.

AFC South:

I said that all the talk about Jax being ready to replace Indy as the top dog in this division was pre-mature. I picked Indy to win the division and I said they’d have 12 wins, which was exactly on the mark. I also thought that would earn them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, which it did not. After that auspicious start at the top of the AFC South, the predictions came apart at the seams. I had Jax finishing second with 8 wins. Once again, I got the 8 wins on the mark, but the Jags lost a tiebreaker with Tennessee for second place in the division. I thought Houston would improve to 5 wins and third place in the division this year. The team won 6 games but finished fourth. I totally missed the Tennessee Titans; I thought they’d win 4 games for the year and they won 8.

I’ll give myself a B for the predictions here.

AFC North:

I thought that the Steelers, Bengals and Ravens would all have 10 wins for the year. The Ravens won 13 games and the other two teams won 8 each. I did say that the Cincinnati Bengals might become known as the Cincinnati Trail Blazers as their off-field shenanigans continued to spin out of control; while I haven’t yet seen anyone refer to the Bengals in that way, you’d have to agree that the off-field antics of these players captured more than its fair share of attention all season long. I did say that Steve McNair’s value to the Ravens would be his toughness and his leadership and not his physical prowess – which is waning. And, I did say that the Browns were out of it from the opening coin toss in September. I said the Browns had little depth particularly at QB; that was on the mark. I said that Willie McGinnest would provide more leadership and maturity to the team than he would add in terms of sacks and tackles; that was on the mark. I said that Charlie Frye seemed to have the tools to develop as a QB; that seems to have missed the mark by more than a small margin.

I’ll give myself a C + for the predictions here.

AFC East:

I had the Pats winning the division with 11 wins. They did win the division and they won 12 games so that looks pretty good. Sadly, I fell for the 2005 late season surge by the Miami Dolphins - - after the games really didn’t matter and when they went up against the soft part of their 2005 schedule. I thought the Dolphins would also win 11 games and make the playoffs. Not only did they fall short of my prediction by 5 whole games, the Dolphins are a team on the brink of collapse at the end of the Nick Saban Fiasco - - er, Nick Saban Era. I had the Bills finishing third – which they actually did – with only 5 wins. But I saved my biggest miss for the NY Jets; I thought the Jets would stink and win only 3 games and be “on the clock” for the April draft. The Jets won 10 games and made the playoffs.

I’ll give myself a D – for the predictions here.

However, I stand by my remarks that there would be huge entertainment value in having NY Jets’ fans “on the clock” for the draft for four months as they dissected each and every possibility as to what the team should do with that #1 pick…

NFC West:

I said that the “Super Bowl Loser Jinx” would be violated this year. I said the Seahawks would not do as well as last year but they would win their division anyway. That was all true. I gave the Seahawks 12 wins and a comfortable walk to the division crown; actually, they won only 9 games and needed a win on New Year’s Eve to lock down their division title. Then I went totally goofy in my NFC West predictions. I actually thought that Dennis Green could squeeze 8 wins out of the Arizona Cardinals this year; that would be like squeezing orange juice out of a spare tire. Let me say for the record that the Cardinals team is flawed and Dennis Green is not nearly as good a head coach as he tends to portray himself as. I had the Rams finishing third with 7 wins; the Rams finished second with 8 wins; that looks like a decent prediction but, in truth, the Rams won games I never thought they’d win and lost some I thought were “gimmees”. I was really surprised by the improvement of the 49ers. I had them winning 5 games only because I wanted something positive to come from the work of Mike Nolan who seems like a good and well-meaning person. The 49ers won 7 games and finished third in the division – ahead of the no-account Cardinals.

I’ll give myself a D for the predictions here.

NFC South:

Even in light of the less than precise nature of the predictions that I’ve chronicled thusfar, let’s just say the crystal ball was REALLY cloudy for this division. I had the Panthers winning 10 games and the division championship based on a tiebreaker. That’s bad enough; the team I had tied with them was Tampa Bay who only won 4 games. Granted, Chris Simms missing the whole year and the absence of anything resembling a journeyman NFL QB in Tampa for the rest of the season made their record one that was below just about everyone’s expectation. I had Atlanta third in the division with 9 wins, which is two more than they actually got. I said then that Michael Vick would have been a great single wing tailback and is a damned fine running back but the problem for the Falcons is that he plays QB and that’s a shame. Oh, and I specifically said the Falcons’ WR corps will not “strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators around the league”. I believe that those two statements about the Falcons stand out as irrefutably accurate. Worst of all, I thought the New Orleans Saints would win 4 games for the year and battle the Jets for the first pick in the draft. The only solace I can take with regard to my predictions for the Saints is that I haven’t found a whole lot of other folks who picked them to play for the NFC Conference Championship back in August 2006.

I’ll give myself a flat-out F for the predictions here. The only way they might have been worse would have been if I had predicted that OJ Simpson would have revealed the identities of the “real killers” at one of the NFC South divisional games.

NFC North:

I had the Bears winning the division with 11 wins because they were the “least flawed team” in the division. They won comfortably and had 13 wins for the season. I thought the Vikings and Lions would chase the Bears – which they did if you take my statement literally. Sadly, I had the Vikings with 8 wins and the Lions with 7 wins for the year; they had 6 wins and 3 wins respectively. And the actual second place finisher in the division was Green Bay whom I wrote off as a mess of a team that would have to scratch to win 4 games; they won 8.

I’ll give myself a D for the predictions here.

NFC East:

I had the Cowboys winning the division with 10 wins and the Eagles to finish second as a wild-card team with 9 wins. Actually, the two teams reversed that prediction and both made the playoffs. I had the Redskins finishing third with 8 wins; they didn’t get near that total but I did nail the problems facing the Skins. I said I was “not really enamored with the WRs”; in actuality, the Skins’ WRs were miserable despite the additions in the off-season that were widely heralded. I said the offensive line was paper thin with no reserve strength. Fortunately, the starters played most of the time; but when the reserves came in, there was a noticeable “deprovement” in performance. And I said they had problems at safety with Archuletta and Taylor neither of whom “can be counted on to cover the goal line pylon.” Actually, that might have been unfair since both players are significantly bigger than the goal line pylon and so they could indeed cover it if they could ever catch up to it; but they couldn’t cover an Easter Island statue… I did put the Giants in last place in the division and I thought the reason would be that their defense could not hold up. The Giants broke even for the year finished third in the division and missed the playoffs.

I’ll give myself a C for the predictions here.

After this retrospective, I’m reminded of an observation by humorist/philosopher Evan Esar regarding economists:

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”

Nonetheless, I’ll do it again next season because it’s fun and because I don’t mind admitting my mistakes. I’ve never participated in any political activities for a boatload of reasons one of which is that politicos seem incapable of admitting a mistake. Politicians are folks who are much more comfortable at “hindcasting” than they are at “forecasting”. Consider the words of a consummate politician, Sir Winston Churchill, on that topic:

“I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place.”

That’s sort of like the gambling on last weekend’s games; it’s pretty difficult not to come out ahead. And that’s precisely why they don’t let you bet on last week’s – or last season’s games in the present…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(1)

Last weekend was another good one for Mythical Picks. I made four picks in the playoff games and went 3-1 in those picks. That would have produced a Mythical Profit of $190. For the season, the cumulative record stands at 152-131-4 with a Mythical Profit of $1180.

Did you notice that each and every visiting team covered last weekend and two won outright?

I want to take this opportunity to preach a “mythical sermonette” here. For NFL games this season, I am theoretically ahead by $1180 and there are only three games left to play in the season. So, what’s the harm in doubling or tripling my normal wagers to try to make a killing for the year? Here’s the harm…

An overwhelmingly important ingredient in sports wagering is money management and the reason so many folks don’t succeed over the long run in this area is that money management – at its core – is self-discipline. I set the rules for Mythical Picks back in August/September; I said then that the rules were silly in that I would wager $110 on each game and that I would make a pick in every game. I fully expected to lose for the season given those restraints. But I did this for entertainment value and not as a betting service – and I think I’ve made that clear all during the season.

Therefore, even though this is fictional – or mythical – wagering, it would be a horrible example for me to “up the ante” at this point. If you are betting real money on NFL games – or college football games or basketball games or competitive eating events – you have to set limits on the amount of your wagers and the number of wagers you will make; then you have to stick to those limits. When you fall behind, it is wrong to play catch-up by upping the ante. When you are ahead, the best way to lose your advantage is to press your bets.

Let me relay a story about a visit to Las Vegas during the first weekend of March Madness about 8 years ago. The first day of college action was over and a friend and I were looking over the NBA games to see if there was a line that looked interesting. The Clippers where on the road against the Kings that night; at the time the Clippers were awful and the Kings were pretty good. Those two teams had played the night before in LA and the Kings had clobbered the Clips. The line on this game was Kings – 9 and it looked to me like a mortal lock for the Kings to cover. I convinced my friend of this wisdom and got in line to make a wager for both of us.

Behind me in a long line were four guys who were commiserating about how badly they had lost on the college games that day. They said they needed to find a bet to “get even” so they would have money to play tomorrow’s games. One of them noticed that the Clippers were +400 on the money-line that night and said they would need to bet on that proposition to get their money back. His three compatriots agreed and then they gathered up $800 amongst themselves to bet on the Clippers. That would “get them even” so they were probably down somewhere in the neighborhood of three-grand after the first day of the weekend.

After I made my wager, I stepped to the side and pretended to scan my ticket for errors because I didn’t believe they would go through with that wager. But they told the guy behind the counter they wanted #1234 on the money-line for $800. The guy taking the bets actually said to them, “Are you sure? You want the Clippers on the money-line for $800?” They said yes; he took the money and gave them the ticket.

With about 9 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter of that game, the Clips led the Kings 41-14. My friend said that we could kiss our wager good-bye; I told him to keep the faith because, after all, these were the Clippers. He was skeptical. On the other side of the room, the four “losers” were whooping it up and were already yelling about how they would be kicking ass and taking names tomorrow in each and every one of the wagering propositions.

At halftime, the score was Clippers 49 – Kings 42; in less than 10 minutes, the Kings had closed a 27-point gap to 7 points. The “get-even guys” were still boisterous; my friend was beginning to think we had a chance; I still had faith in the Clippers finding a way to get blown out.

By the time there were only five minutes to play in the game, the Kings led by 15 and were pulling away; they won the game by 21. We covered our modest bet; the four guys had left the sportsbook long before the final whistle. They hadn’t “gotten even”; they were now down approximately four-grand instead of three-grand.

The moral of the story is simple. A bad bet is a bad bet no matter if you are ahead or behind. Chasing after losses by taking long shots to win is not a sensible strategy. Money management is just as important as analysis and handicapping when you are doing sports wagering. So, I’m not doubling or tripling my wagers this weekend because that’s not a smart thing to do.

Now with that lesson in hand, let me be sure to remind you that no one should be stupid enough to take anything here as the basis for making a real wager involving actual money. If you do so, you may need a license to be so stupid; you should check with your local authorities on that.

General Comments:
I suspect that the suits at CBS – the network with the Super Bowl this year – are pulling for a Chicago/New England game. I believe that both Chicago and Boston are in the top five TV markets in the country and more TV sets in the city of the participating teams tend to produce higher ratings. This is not to minimize the ardor of the fans in New Orleans or Indy; it’s just that my guess is that neither of them is in the top 25 TV markets in the country.

From a personal perspective, all I really want to see a good game – translation a game where the outcome is still in doubt in the fourth quarter. But I must confess that I will not be rooting for the Saints to win this weekend. That is not because I have anything against the Saints or because I have any particular fondness for the Bears ever since the retirement of Walter Payton.

No, the reason I will hope for a Bears’ victory is because I know that two weeks of never-ending feelgood emoting about the resurrection of New Orleans after the horror of Katrina will be unbearable. There’ll even be a Weather Channel retrospective on the storm itself, I’m sure. I’ll tire of that nonsense after about the first three stories on it but it won’t go away. By the end of the first week, I’ll probably be in a state where I’d rather watch videotapes of The View and Cold Pizza over and over again for 48 straight hours instead of yet one more sob story about New Orleans. And you know, it’s gonna happen if the Saints win this weekend. The damned storyboards are already up and the camera crews are already assigned…

New Orleans at Chicago – 2.5 (43): If I counted correctly, the Saints have been the underdog in nine games this year and they’ve won seven of those nine games outright. If you believe in trends, you’d look no further than that and check out the money line odds on this game. I don’t think that’s the way to go. The story line here is “top offense against top defense.” The problem is that the Bears’ “top defense” is not what it was before injuries to DT, Tommie Harris, and SS, Mike Brown. Either Ian Scott or Alfonso Boone will have to play much better this weekend on the DL than they have or the Saints will establish the run and make life very difficult for the Bears. Chicago cannot win if they have to play catch-up or if they only have the ball for only 23-25 minutes of the game. On the other hand, if the Bears can play solid run defense and get the ball to the offense in advantageous time and distance situations, the Bears ought to be able to run on the Saints defense with its undersized linebackers. The Bears’ running game isn’t speed and finesse. People say Reggie Bush will be “the X-Factor” in this game. Maybe so. I think the other player who could be “the X-Factor” is Bears’ special teams’ phenom, Devin Hester. He could return a kick or a punt for a TD; he can also muff a couple of punts and give the ball away at just the wrong moment. Hester has six TDs on returns this year; he also muffed three punts last weekend. So if Hester is “the X-Factor”, I’m not sure who the beneficiary of his “X-factordom” might be on Sunday. The Saints put 27 points up on the Eagles last weekend; I think they can put up 20 or more this weekend. The question therefore is this: Can the Bears put up at least 24 points to cover here? Well to do that they’ll need a TD from the defense or special teams and some short fields to work with. I think they’ll get it; I’ll take the Bears and lay the points.

New England at Indy – 3.5 (47): Before everyone falls all over himself declaring that the Colts’ rushing defense has found itself and is now a force majeure, let’s do a bit of analysis here. I don’t have the top-level video for the last several Colts’ games that coaches do, but it is pretty clear to me that one of their “secrets” to stopping the run is to commit lots of bodies to the running area at or near the line of scrimmage; that leaves room to hit pass receivers. The last two opponents didn’t do that; Trent Green could not find water had he been on the deck of the Titanic two weeks ago; Steve McNair didn’t establish a running game he could fake off last week. In fact, the Ravens only ran the ball six times in the second half last week and they were not behind by double digits at any time in the game. I don’t understand why that happened, but it sure made the Colts’ run defense numbers look pretty gaudy. I don’t think that happens again this week against the Pats. Peyton Manning needs to win here to exorcise his worst playoff demons; Tony Dungy needs to win here to bring his career playoff record up to .500. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick need to win here because that’s what they expect to do in this situation. I think all the focus on the Colts’ newly emerged defense and the Pats’ historical defensive dominance of Peyton Manning is wrong. I think there will be points galore in this game; the loser might even score 30. So I want this game OVER. And because there’s more than a field goal’s worth of points here, I’ll also take the Pats with the points – but no parlay. Shop this line if you like Indy; it’s 3 in lots of places.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(0)

Last weekend was profitable for Mythical Picks – even though the first game of the weekend was the one that I got so horribly wrong. My premise was that Indy would have to use at least eight men in the box to stop the Chiefs from running and with that, Trent Green could beat them through the air. Trent Green couldn’t beat an egg last weekend and with as many as nine guys in the box in “run situations”, Larry Johnson was like a sports car with an empty gas tank, a flat tire and the keys locked inside it – not going anywhere.

Anyhow, I went 3-1 against the spread in the four games last weekend. That would have generated a Mythical Profit of $190. However, I also lost a mythical $50 on the money line taking KC. So the net Mythical Profit for the week was $140.

Combining that with the regular season totals, the tally is 149-130-4 for all mythical wagers and a net Mythical Profit of $990.

Despite that record of success, no one should take any information here as the basis for making a wager involving real money. Only dumb folks would do that – folks dumb enough to try to kill a bird by throwing it over a cliff.

General Comments:

This weekend and next weekend represent the best viewing opportunities of the NFL season. The eight teams left in the playoffs are not all great teams that may someday invite comparison to Lombardi’s Packers of the 60s; they all have their flaws. But usually, the semi-final games and the conference championship games are more exciting than the Super Bowl games, many of which have been deadly dull to watch. In addition, there’s only one game on Super Bowl weekend; this weekend you have four games to watch and next weekend you have two. So, if you are a football fan, this is the weekend to make sure that your activities include a TV and a remote and a couch and some kind of snacks that involve salt or cheese or both.

When the Eagles beat the Giants with no time left on the clock Sunday night, it meant that all four of the home teams – the higher seeded teams – won in the first round of the playoffs. From this point on in the playoffs, only division champions are involved; there won’t be a wild-card team making some kind of “Cinderella run” this year. All four of the home teams were favored of course; the two in the AFC (Indy and New England) covered the spread comfortably; the two NFC favorites did not cover. Once again this weekend, all of the home teams – the higher seeded ones – are favored…

There’s been some minor brouhaha this week about the Chargers and the Bears restricting sales of tickets to people who live in zip codes near their respective cities in order to keep the crowd solidly in favor of the home team. Naturally, the folks who are charter members of the “Society Of People Spring Loaded To Be Pissed Off About Nearly Everything” [SOPSLTBPOANE], have wailed about the unfairness of all this. To them I say – with great empathy:

Get over it!

Last I checked on TicketsNow.com, you can still get tix for the game in San Diego and Chicago but they’re not exactly cheap. I didn’t check every offering, but the prices seem to range from $225 per seat to $2750 per seat. Think about it; for $2750 you could alternatively buy a nice High-Def TV set and watch loads of NFL games from now into the future. Or you could go to a single game. Put those cheese covered snacks over hear near the couch, please.

(Sat) Indy at Baltimore – 4.5 (40.5): The Colts started off this season by winning their first nine games. Here they are in the playoffs and they didn’t even get a bye in the first round. My guess is that no one in Indy foresaw that situation in early November. This is a classic match-up. The Colts win with their offense; the Ravens win by holding the opponent to a low score and finding a way to manufacture points. I seriously doubt that either team will ever lead in this game by 10 points or more; every possession will be important. The two biggest differences in the stats for these teams relate to defense. The Colts gave up 360 points this year; the Ravens only gave up 201. The Colts sacked opposing QBs 25 times (less than 2 per game); the Ravens sacked the QB 60 times. The Colts were schizophrenic on the road this year; they traveled well when they beat New England, Denver, the Giants and the Jets away from home; then they stunk out the joint losing road games in Houston and Tennessee. I think this is a venue call in terms of the winner but I see a low scoring game and want the points. I’ll take Indy with the points here. If you prefer the Ravens, shop the line; it’s at 4 in a lot of places.

(Sat) Philly at New Orleans – 6 (47.5): New Orleans is the feelgood story of the year; Philly is the hottest team in the NFC at the moment. There’s no hidden message in there; that’s just the facts, ma’am. Facing a passer who went over 4,000 yards in the regular season, the last thing the Eagles needed was to lose a starting cornerback to injury last week; but it happened. I think this game comes down to rushing defense. If the Eagles can run the way they did against the Giants last weekend – say for 150 yards – and if they can hold the Saints to 100 yards rushing, the Eagles can win the game outright. The first situation is much more likely to happen than the second. Interestingly, the Saints were a better road team this year than they were at home; they went 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. However, they didn’t offer to play the game in Philly… Both teams live on the big play. They tied for the league lead in plays longer than 25 yards this year; both teams did that 43 times during the season. I can’t come to a firm conclusion about the matchups here but I do think that the game will be high scoring. I’ll take the game OVER.

(Sun) Seattle at Chicago – 9 (37): Seattle was the shakiest winner on last weekend’s card. Sure, the Seahawks may still have won the game in OT had Tony Romo not lost all of his Ro-Mo-Mentum at one instant in time. But still… The Seahawks have played 17 games this year; they have allowed five more points than they have scored yet they are 10-7. Three of their losses were by double digits the worst coming to the Bears early in the season – with Shaun Alexander out of the line-up to be sure – by a score of 37-6. That won’t happen again this weekend. Alexander is back; and even though he hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was last year, his presence forces the Bears to play the run a lot more seriously than they had to last time these teams met. The Seahawks defense had a chance to win the Cowboys game on their own; they merely needed a defensive stop at the end but couldn’t get the job done. I think that unit gets a breather here because the Bears’ offense is not nearly as good as the Cowboys’ offense was - - unless of course the Bears’ defense treats the offense to great field position all day long and a defensive score or two. I think this game will turn on the “screw-up factor”. If Seattle makes mistakes on offense and gives the ball to the Bears with a short field a couple of times or lets Devin Hester return a kick for a TD, they will lose. If the Bears get the feckless version of Rex Grossman instead of the steady version, he’ll screw up and the Bears will lose. I think the guys who made the line on this game have the Total Score just about right; and in a game that low scoring, I have to take 9 points. But I’m not even tempted to take the Seahawks on the money-line even at +350. I’ll just take Seattle with the points here.

(Sun) New England at San Diego – 5 (46.5): The Pats and Chargers have only one playoff confrontation ever. That was back in the AFL days and the Chargers won that game 51-10. It was the Chargers’ only championship win. Somehow, I don’t think you can draw any conclusions about this weekend from that history. Bill Belichick has a reputation for getting into Peyton Manning’s head with his defensive machinations and late in the season the Pats defense also confabulated rookie QB, Vince Young. Now comes a very balanced Chargers’ offensive unit but with a rookie QB in terms of actual time under center in the NFL. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Pats have a QB who has been in a few playoff situations and has a track record of very steady performance under that pressure; Tom Brady just doesn’t give the ball away all that often in important games. People don’t give the Pats all that much credit for creativity on offense but I think they surprised the Jets and the “Mangenius” last weekend when Jabaar Gaffney caught 8 passes and was an offensive focus; in the 16-game regular season, Gaffney caught all of 11 passes – less than three every four games. I think the turning point of the game will be LaDanian Tomlinson; if the Pats can keep him from running amok (say hold him to 120 yards), that will put a big burden on Phillip Rivers to win the game through the air. In that situation, I’d side with the Pats’ defense. And here’s a stat for you. In the 12 playoff games in the Belichick/Brady Era for the Pats, they have never allowed a back to gain 100 yards rushing. But if Tomlinson can light up the Pats’ defense … I’m going to take this game OVER despite the excellent defenses on both teams. Here’s the situation I’m afraid of in terms of that selection. If the Chargers get out to a 13-0 lead, Marty Schottenheimer might revert to his old form in KC and try to sit on that lead and milk the clock – even starting in the second quarter. That will suck all the offensive momentum out of the game and it will go under the total by a lot. I just want someone on the Chargers’ coaching staff with an offensive mind-set to do a Vulcan Mind Meld with Marty just for this one game.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(0)

I must have used up all of my dumb luck last weekend with Mythical Picks because I had OVER Feb 1st for the next time Mike Tyson would be arrested… Oh well.

Last weekend was a really good one for Mythical Picks despite the fact that most of the games were meaningless for at least one of the teams on the field. Often, the final three weeks of the season is a killer for Mythical Picks because of these meaningless match-ups, but this year I got lucky in the final three weeks. Last weekend I made seventeen picks and went 14-3. That would have produced a Mythical Profit for the week of $1070. Of course, anyone who actually made all seventeen of those wagers ought to be restrained in one of those canvas sports coats with the sleeves that tie in the back.

For the entire regular season, the tally stands at 146 –128 - 4 generating a Mythical Profit of $850. Frankly, when I start out the season of Mythical Picks, I never actually expect to be in the black at the end of the year making so many picks on inscrutable games with the vigorish against me in every one of the picks. This year, I got lucky.

So now it is time for the playoffs…

Of course, no one should use any information here as the basis for a wager involving real money or anything of value. That would be dumb - - so dumb that if you actually ever won an Olympic Gold Medal, you’d probably go out and have it bronzed.

(Sat) KC at Indy – 7.5 (51): Both teams play lots better at home than on the road so the venue definitely favors the Colts; the Chiefs were under .500 on the road this year. And no one ought to be surprised if the Colts’ offense moves the ball well against the Chiefs and gains yardage in big chunks. The Colts’ problem here is that they have to find a way to stop the Chiefs – in the person of Larry Johnson – from running the ball down their throats and controlling the ball for 40 minutes. The Colts give up an average of 173 yards per game which is awful but it’s not as if teams are grinding it out on them; the Colts gave up an average of 5.3 yards every time an opponent ran the ball. Ouch! To stop the Chiefs from running and get the ball back to Peyton Manning, they may need to put 9 men in the box and dare Trent Green to beat them through the air. In that circumstance, Trent Green and the Chiefs can do it. I think the Chiefs can win this game outright. So, I’ll take the Chiefs with the points here. And I’ll add a mythical $50 wager on the Chiefs at +300 on the money line.

(Sat) Dallas at Seattle – 3.5 (46.5): To tell the truth, I don’t really like either team here; both of these teams limped into the playoffs. Seattle turns the ball over too much (34 times in 2006); the Cowboys have forgotten how to run the ball and their pass defense is pitiful. The Cowboys need to rejuvenate their rushing game and this may be just the defensive front seven to get them to do that. The Seahawks are fast and agile on defense but might be vulnerable to a team that can pound the ball with a tandem of strong running backs. Until this year, Qwest Field had been a huge edge for the Seahawks but they’ve lost three times at home already this year. Surprisingly, two of those home losses came against teams that were under .500 for the season. I think Dallas will win outright here but the odds on the money line don’t provide any real value, so I’ll just take the Cowboys with the points here.

(Sun) Jets at New England – 8.5 (37): Is there a better big game quarterback in the NFL today than Tom Brady? It’s going to take some time for you to convince me there is. How have teams kept the Pats under control this year? By putting lots of pressure on Brady up the middle. And that’s not what the Jets look likely to be able to do consistently without blitzing a lot – and if they blitz a lot, I think Brady can burn them. The real flaw in the Pats is that the receiving corps is substandard; there is no “Gotta-Get-The-Ball-To-HIM-In-A-Tight-Situation” kind of player out there. The Jets know this and will try to put Brady in situations where he has to find a guy and trust him to be the guy to complete the play. The Jets are the kind of opponent who will give the Pats a real game because the Jets are highly unlikely to beat themselves. They are the least penalized team in the NFL (less than five penalties per game on average) and they haven’t given up disastrous turnovers this year. I have to think that the Jets victory over New England earlier this season in Foxboro will provide incentive and focus to the Pats this week. I think the Jets are a young and upcoming team but I don’t think they’re ready for this playoff road challenge just yet. I don’t like laying 8.5 points in the playoffs, but in this case I’ll swallow hard and take the Pats to win and cover.

(Sun) Giants at Philly – 7.5 (45.5): Philly holds several edges in this game; I think they are the better-coached team; I think they have a significantly better defensive secondary; I think they have a superior offensive line. The Eagles also have a lot more momentum going for them. However, I think the number “40” is the key to the game. If the Giants are able to run the ball 40 times, they’ll win the game outright; if the Eagles force Eli Manning to throw the ball 40 times, they’ll win the game. [If they put lots of pressure on him and 20 of those 40 throws are off his back foot, the Eagles will win by more than two TDs.] I am not sufficiently confident of a Giants upset to take them on the money line, but I will take the Giants with this generous helping of points here.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(0)

Last week was not a good one for Mythical Picks. I have tried to warn those of you who are of the wagering persuasion that late season games in the NFL are only slightly more amenable to rational handicapping than opening day games in the NFL. Some examples:

I took Dallas over Philly. Who knew that Dallas would not be able to run and control the ball against an Eagle defense that had been pushed around for the last month-and-a-half? Who knew Dallas would forget how to stop the run against a mediocre rushing team and give up over 200 yards rushing?

I took Indy over Houston. Who knew that Indy would find a way not to score in the 40s against the Texans?

I took SF over Arizona. Who knew that SF would gag when they had a shot at a division championship staring them in the face?

The final tally for last week was 6-11-1. That generated a Mythical Loss of $610. That’s not very good.

The season totals are 133-124-4. That gives a Mythical Deficit for the year of $220. This is a good time to point out the effect of the vigorish to everyone. Note that I have been right more than I have been wrong this year; and still, I’d be behind if I had actually made all of these wagers. And since I mentioned the phrase “made all of these wagers”, let me reiterate yet again that it would be folly for anyone to wager on each and every NFL game. The secret to having a winning season at the sportsbook is to pick your spots carefully and to ignore totally any game you don’t think you understand. At this time of year, those kinds of inscrutable games abound.

Naturally, no one would take any information herein and use it as the basis for making a wager or deciding what side to back in a wager that involved actual money. Anyone doing that would be dumb - - so dumb that the vacuum between his ears would be all that kept his guts from falling out of his ass.

There are a few good games this weekend from the perspective that they involve teams who should be playing hard to make it into the playoffs. Sadly, they don’t tend to play one another so you have to guess what the opponent may or may not do in terms of showing up. And then there is one game that is sufficiently putrid that the NFL should do its fans a favor and decide the outcome with the toss of a coin. It doesn’t matter; the teams don’t matter; the game will stink. I think you’ll be able to pick out which one I mean.

(Sat Nite) Giants – 3 at Washington (43.5): Because of the playoff stakes involved in this game, it might be the game of the week; the only problem is that both teams stink. If I’ve done my tiebreaker analysis correctly, the Giants are in the playoffs if they win here. Of course, these are the Giants who have lost six of their last seven games so even facing a less than mediocre foe should not make them supremely confident. The Giants’ passing game has been in-and-out for much of this season and it was certainly “out” last week. This week they get to face a Redskins’ secondary missing its best cornerback and coverage guy (by a large margin) and a pair of safeties who cannot cover and don’t tackle all that well. Just in case any Redskins’ fans want to tell you about all the “big hitters” they have on defense, remind them that the Redskins are dead last in the NFL in yardage allowed per play and rank 30th in the league in yards per game given up. All of this ought to matter, but the Giants have not shown that they can take advantage of mismatches for about two months now. I don’t know if Tom Coughlin’s job is on the line here but it ought to be. I’m virtually certain that Joe Gibbs’ job is not on the line here but it too ought to be. I’m going to contemplate an error-filled game on offense by both sides and take this game UNDER. But to show you the confidence level I have in that selection, let me say that a final score of 34-31 [either way] would not be out of the question.

Buffalo at Baltimore – 9 (34): Buffalo is out of the playoff race thanks to the fact that they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week against Tennessee. Now they go on the road where they are far less successful and take on a Ravens’ team that can get home field throughout the playoffs if they can win here and if San Diego loses later in the day. But is that enough to lay more than a TD in a season finale? Here’s the reason it might make sense. The Bills need a balanced offense to win because JP Losman just isn’t up to carrying the team on his own to victory against a 12-3 NFL team. The problem here is that the Ravens have the best rush defense in the AFC and the second-best rush defense in the NFL which would seem to put that burden squarely on Losman’s shoulders. My guess is that he caves in under this burden. I’ll take the Ravens to win and cover here.

Pittsburgh at Cincy – 6 (43.5): When the Steelers wet the bed against the Ravens last week, they were eliminated from the playoffs; the best these defending Super Bowl Champions can do is to win here and finish at 8-8 for the year. I’m not sure that’s a message that will sell all that well in their locker room. And even though Ben Roethlisberger has not been nearly his “super-self” this year, the Steelers just have to want him at QB more than Charlie Batch. But Roethlisberger was injured again last week and you have to wonder if the Steelers will run the risk of throwing him out there in a meaningless game. Meanwhile the Bengals have not been “tearing it up” for the last 6-8 weeks either. I’m going to hope that the Bengals at home play as seriously here as they did in Denver last weekend – losing at the end due to a muffed snap from center on a PAT – and that they produce 24-30 points of offense. That total will be enough for them to win and cover; that’s why I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover here - - for Mythical Purposes only!

Detroit at Dallas – 13 (43.5): The Cowboys soiled themselves last week against Philly. The Lions have been so