The Sports Curmudgeon

Unlike many of the people who write about the upcoming NFL Draft, I do not pretend to have put in hundreds of hours of work breaking down films and working the phones. The reason I don’t pretend to have done that is that I have not done that - - although I really wonder if all of the other “experts” who claim to have done so really have done so. Here is my claim:

I like college football. Therefore, I watch a lot of college football. For the hell of it, I keep a notepad with me while I watch most of those games and when I see a player that I think has pro potential, I make a note of it.

That’s all there is to it. And now this is sort of a compendium of my notes.

There is an obvious bias here; I really only can give you first hand knowledge of players on teams that have been on TV in a geographic area where I happened to be at the time. So, even if there was a hugely impressive performance in the Rocky Mountain College/Dickinson State game in Wherever North Dakota, I would not be able to tell you about it because I had no chance to see it. In a few rare cases, I will relate here the comments of others about a player I have never seen; those cases will be clearly identified.

In the past, I’ve identified late round picks who actually made the roster of the team that drafted them and then went on to play for that team. I’ve also identified players who never drew even a whit of interest from NFL teams. I’m not a scout; I don’t claim to be one; I don’t have a pipeline into the “scouting network”. Whatever…

Let’s start with quarterbacks:

I saw Delaware play in two of the Division 1-AA playoff games and was impressed with QB, Joe Flacco. He is not fleet afoot by any means but my notes say he is “huge”. Indeed, he is listed as 6/7” tall and he probably looked big by comparison because he was playing in Division I-AA games; but in addition to being physically large, he has a strong and accurate arm. Can he step in and be a starter in Game 1 of the 2008 NFL season? No. Can he be developed into a starter? I think so. Before he went to Delaware, he was at Pitt and left there because the Pitt folks picked someone else to be the starting QB there.

I started out very impressed by Brian Brohm of Louisville; my first notes say he is a candidate for the Academic All-America team (always good for a QB) and that he is very accurate with his throws. Subsequent notes say his arm isn’t that strong and that he floats the ball too much. Because of the competition he played against, he’ll probably be taken ahead of Joe Flacco but I’m not sure that Brohm will be the better pro QB.

Matt Ryan is the acclaimed best QB in the draft. My notes say “good arm but not great”, “accurate passer”, “mobility against college defenders will not translate to mobility in NFL” and “not worth playing him ‘QB money’ high in first round”. Obviously, I differ from the common wisdom here; so be it.

I was underwhelmed by Kentucky QB André Woodson. My notes say “slow to deliver the ball”, “throws into traffic a lot” and “not real accurate”. Lots of folks have been raving about him for the last two years, so that’s why I focused on him while watching Kentucky play last year. I’d take him in really late rounds but not before that.

Colt Brennan can surely throw the football even though he looked awful in the bowl game against Georgia. Any QB will look bad when he is being knocked from pillar to post by defensive linemen who overmatch the offensive lineman nominally protecting that QB. Nevertheless, his numbers are inflated by the system he played in and his performance in that big game was horrible. He’ll be a late round pick - - but if he gets on a good team and takes a couple of years to learn how to play big time football and plays with protection, he could be pretty good.

Dennis Dixon has impressive running skills and an accurate if not a powerful arm. Playing in Oregon’s spread offense means he would have a major transition to make in the NFL in any circumstances. On top of that, his knee injury at the end of the season – surely aggravated by his decision to try to play on it – makes him an even bigger gamble. All my notes on Dixon are positive, but I don’t think I’d spend a first day pick on him at this point.

Finally, there are three QBs for major football programs that I saw who I noted were not worth spending a draft pick on. My notes say that if these guys are free agents, you could think about signing them and seeing if they can scramble to make your developmental squad. They are Anthony Morelli (Penn State), John David Booty (USC) and Erik Ainge (Tennessee).

Moving on to running backs:

Jonathan Stewart (Oregon) has the most positive comments on my sheets. I said I liked his strength and his aggressive running style. I also liked that he caught the ball on the few occasions when they threw it to him and that he blocked well out of the backfield. He’s built like a bowling ball and runs low to the ground. The bad news is that he had surgery on his toe and that might drop him to the point where he could be an ever-loving steal in the draft. I liked him a lot.

Because I liked Jonathon Stewart, I also liked Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois). I saw speed, strength, aggressiveness, and blocking skills here. And he has not had toe surgery any time recently…

I had mixed feelings about Darren McFadden (Arkansas). I noted that he is very fast and that he’s effective returning kicks. I also noted that lots of his plays come from direct snaps from center where he lines up where a shotgun QB would line up; that’s not gonna happen in the NFL. And I don’t think he will be an aggressive runner at the NFL level where he gains a couple of yards after every initial contact. Everyone says to pick him in the top five; I would not pick him nearly that high…

While I was watching Delaware in those Division I-AA playoff games, I also noticed RB, Omar Cuff. He’s not going to be a star in the NFL and he won’t be drafted on Saturday, but I have notes here that say he is a “tough runner” and has “good speed”.

Ray Rice (Rutgers) looked spectacular on some plays and decidedly mediocre on others. My notes say “wildly inconsistent” and “starter in NFL if he plays up to potential”. There aren’t loads of great running backs in this draft; nonetheless, his up and down play would lead me to wait until late in the draft to take him.

With regard to Mike Hart (Michigan), my note reads “too small and too slow”. Sorry to all the Michigan fans out there.

Cory Boyd (So. Carolina) impressed me as big and “quick to the hole” Also he caught the ball when they threw it to him. The negative side of my notes say “not a breakaway threat”. He’s probably a late round selection or a guy you sign as a free agent if he goes undrafted.

I only saw one fullback that made enough of an impression on me to write down anything on my notepad. That was Owen Schmitt (West Virginia) and I really was impressed with his blocking ability. He can block in a passing situation from a “fixed stance” and he can block effectively on running plays to get the running back out on the edge. He is “not a game breaker but a guy who will help an offense with his fundamental blocking skill.” I doubt he’ll go on the first day of the draft, but some team will get a pretty good player in the fifth or sixth round of this draft…

With tight ends, I think it is important to look at them for their blocking abilities in addition to their abilities to run patterns and catch the ball. So I like these guys for different reasons:

John Carlson (Notre Dame) is a very good blocker on running plays and he can catch the ball when he gets his hands on it. He is “not fast – looks like he’s running knee deep in peanut butter”. He also covered punts. There is no reason to draft him in the first round but my notes say “should make a roster in the NFL as a late-round pick”.

Dustin Keller (Purdue) is “fast for a tight end” and has “very good hands”. But I also said that he was “unimpressive as a blocker on run plays and when double-teaming a defensive end.” Again, he is probably a late round pick.

Anthony Hill (NC State) is “big as a house and not a whole lot faster” than a house. A screen graphic said he weighed 270 lbs; my guess is that would be the case if you weighed him before lunch. Power blocking is his calling card; he should be available late in the draft.

A friend says that Adam Bishop (Nevada) is a sleeper in the draft and someone who will make an NFL squad for sure next year. I saw Nevada play Boise State last year and found no reason to take any notes on Adam Bishop. So, I mention his name here only because he was mentioned to me in a very specific way.

Before talking about wide receivers in this draft, I want to say that drafting wide receivers in the first round – particularly in the early stages of the first round – is a dangerous proposition. Just off the top of my head, here are a few WRs who cost their teams a first round pick – and first round pick signing bonus money – and who never amounted to much more than a dollop of donkey dung in the NFL: RJ Soward, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Freddie Mitchell, David Terrell and Charles Rogers. So, for teams considering a wide receiver with a top 15 selection, the words to remember ought to be caveat emptor.

Going through my notes, I notice that I have very few mentions of wide receivers in there. That means either I slept through a huge fraction of the passing plays in the college football season or that there were only three wide receives worth the time and energy to write something down about. I suspect it was the latter. Nevertheless:

James Hardy (Indiana) is tall, big, and fast and can catch anything he gets his hands on. He does not look particularly fast so he’s probably not going to be an NFL “vertical threat”. He blocked on running plays, which is always a plus. He “will be drafted on the first day.”

Mario Manningham (Michigan) is big and strong and goes aggressively after balls thrown high in the air. That’s the good news. He also “drops passes that NFL WRs will be expected to catch.” And, he’s just not very fast - - which could be his undoing in the NFL. I’d pass on him unless it was a really late round in the draft.

DeShawn Jackson (Cal) is the opposite of Manningham. Jackson can fly but he’s really small. I doubt that he weighs 180 pounds with all of his gear on. He catches the ball well and did some kick returning. My notes say, “if NFL team that wears blue uniforms takes him, he’ll look like a Smurf”.

Another friend sent along a note praising Akron WR, Jabari Arthur telling me that Arthur caught 15 passes in a single game last year. That’s impressive at any level of the game even if one is playing against a defensive secondary made up exclusively of zombies. I thanked this person for his note and promised to mention it here; then I got a follow up note after the Motor City Bowl asking me if I had seen Jabari Arthur in that game. Of course, I had not; but my correspondent mentioned that Arthur “caught nine passes for 180 yards” in that game against Memphis. Take all this information for what it’s worth; my correspondent may have been Jabari Arthur’s older brother for all I know. I can tell you with certainty that I do not know Jabari Arthur from King Arthur or Bea Arthur.

Several offensive linemen were impressive last year. Because the NFL moves these players around so often, I just try to look for guys who are big, strong and quick and who have sound blocking techniques. I don’t “project” them as left tackles or right guards or whatever.

My notes on Jake Long (Michigan) say that he “buries defenders lots of the time” and that he can pass block as well as he can run block. The stats say Long is 6’7” tall and weighs 315 lbs. This is the kind of offensive lineman I tend to like. According to reports this week, Long has signed with the Miami Dolphins as the #1 overall pick in the draft.

Gosder Cherilus (Boston College) is also a “very large human being” who hustles and “plays hard on every play”. I also noted that he was downfield on running plays throwing blocks. I liked him a lot too.

Brandon Albert (UVa) is big and blocks well on run plays and pass plays. Maybe he so good because he has to practice against Chris Long every day? My note says “sure to be gone by end of Round 2”. If the signing of Jake Long starts a run on offensive linemen, then he may be gone by the middle of the first round.

Fernando Velasco (UGa) was always aggressive and usually successful in getting his man out of the play. A screen graphic said he had played both guard and center for Georgia so that can’t be a bad thing for an NFL team looking for help on the OL. My notes say, “mid-round pick”.

I liked Steve Justice (Wake Forest) at center because of his quickness off the ball. My notes say, “second day pick”.

Two other offensive linemen made my list with the simple notation “worth taking if available late in the draft”. Those were Tony Hills (Texas) and Mike McGlynn (Pitt).

By the way, I mentioned above that I watched the Nevada/Boise State game last season. I made no notes about Boise State tackle Ryan Clady. Some now think he is one of the top two or three offensive linemen in the entire draft. Sorry, but I just didn’t notice him…

On the defensive side, I had fewer players than usual highlighted. Maybe I was mesmerized by all the spread formations in college football last year and didn’t focus on defense as much as I usually do. Or maybe, this is not a draft loaded with defensive stars in the making? Whatever…

On the defensive line, I noted several players:

Glenn Dorsey (LSU) and Chris Long (UVa) were obvious standouts. Watching them in different games, I made the same note about each player, “If you need a DT (or DE) and you don’t take this guy, then what do you think you need?”

Quentin Groves (Auburn) “will be a pass rushing specialist” either as a DE or as an OLB depending on the defensive philosophy of the team that gets him. My notes say he ran down a sweep to the wide side of the field away from him and stopped play for no gain. He is both quick and fast.

Cliff Avril (Purdue) is also someone who may be a DE or an OLB. He is a good pass rusher and he uses his hands well to get off blocks on running plays to his side of the field.

Keilen Dykes (West Virginia) was a “run-stopper” who didn’t get moved around very much. My notes say take him on the second day of the draft.

DeMario Pressley (NC State) is also a run-stopper who also gets good push inside on passing plays. How does NC State turn out so many good defensive linemen and linebackers and still remain a mediocre team? That’s a mystery of the universe.

Derrick Harvey (Florida) is a “pass rushing machine”. My notes say he “can probably scratch his ankles without bending over”; he has a huge wingspan. My notes say “third round - - maybe second”.

Carlton Powell (Va Tech) is “big and strong” but “not fleet afoot”. My notes say “late round pick because of his size and strength”.

Please note that Vernon Gholston (Ohio State) is not on my list here. I saw Ohio State play at least twice last year and maybe three times and I was never moved to write his name on my notepad. Perchance I failed to recognize his greatness; perchance he is one of those “workout wonders” who rocket up the draft charts every year. If I am right and he was not worth noting last year as an outstanding player, then the two words every team tempted to take him in the top Ten must remember are these: Mike. Mamula.

I also did not make any notes about Sedrick Ellis (USC) and he too has been written about as a highly regarded defensive end in this draft. I never said I was perfect…

A few linebackers impressed me:

Dan Connor (Penn State) seemed to be “in on every tackle of the game”. I also liked the fact that he was fast enough to play pass defense effectively. My notes say, “first round pick”.

Keith Rivers (USC) “sheds blockers well” and seems to be around the ball a lot. He’s probably a second round pick.

Curtis Lofton (Okla) is a hard hitter but my notes say he “doesn’t cover pass routes well”. I said Lofton was a second round/third round pick.

Vince Hall (Va Tech) is a big hitter but he is awfully short for an inside linebacker. My notes say, “looks like Sam Mills reincarnated”. Now if he could play as well as Sam Mills, that would be just fine …

Xavier Adibi (Va Tech) is a speed rushing outside linebacker. He might be a teams “designated sacker”. My notes say he “tends to get pushed around on power runs to his side”.

Now that I look at my notes as a whole, this would not be a great year for an NFL team to be looking to “get well” in their defensive backfield based on the draft. I only have six players mentioned in my notes in defensive backfield positions and some of them are “lesser round picks”.

Tracy Porter (Indiana) is a cornerback who is good if not great in coverage but is a “sure tackler”. My notes say he is also “small”. Depending on the source you read, he is listed at 5’ 9” or 5’ 10”. He’ll see much bigger receivers in the NFL.

Antoine Cason (Ariz) is a cornerback who covers well and who is a hard hitter. What I liked particularly about Cason was that he “hustled on every play”.

Aquib Talib (Kansas) is a good coverage guy who is also a decent tackler. But my notes say he “might be a step slower than an NFL cornerback needs to be”.

Josh Barrett (Ariz St) is “fast” “good in coverage” and “a solid hitter”. That sounds like a good strong safety pick to me.

Kenny Phillips (Miami) is “a big hitter and very quick”. He should be a solid safety – probably free safety – in the NFL.

Trae Williams (U So Fla) is “very fast but very small”. I say he’s worth a look on the second day of the draft.

I saw only one punter and one kicker worth noting all of last year.

Durant Brooks (GaTech) was a punter with a big leg who got lots of distance plus hang time on his punts.

Taylor Mehlhalf (Wisconsin) had some booming kickoffs deep into the end zone when I saw him.

So there it is. In addition to having your draft tracker on the laptop next to your easy chair this weekend as you watch the NFL Draft, you can also have this listing open and available to you. It probably will not add to your viewing enjoyment all that much, but it can’t hurt either.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(0)

No one can properly accuse me of being a lackey for “The Olympic Movement”. I have, in fact, likened the Olympic Movement to one’s bowel movements on occasion. Back in 2001, I wrote an entire piece on just a few of the things that I thought were wrong with the Olympics. /

If that does not provide me sufficient credentials with regard to finding fault with the modern Olympics, consider that in 2003, I suggested canceling the Olympics in their entirety.

I do not retract anything I said in those commentaries above. Obviously, the IOC has not changed any of the things I found objectionable in the first rant and surely the Olympics have not been shut down completely as I suggested in the second. With all of that as a backdrop, we come to the present where we have a chorus of people in the media and in the political world – talk about symbiotic relationships! – calling for nations to boycott the Olympic Games in Beijing this summer. To all of those high-minded rhetorical gassers let me say this:

Stuff a sock in it!

The Games will happen. Let there be no idealistic flights of fancy here. The Games will happen. So, every time you hear someone call for a boycott, ask them to explain in pragmatic terms just what that will accomplish. After they are finished waxing poetic, refer back to the opening line of this paragraph; the Games will happen. Translation:

A boycott may make someone feel good, but it will not change a damned thing.

Let us look at the recent history of Olympic boycotts. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter responded to the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan with a US boycott of the Olympic Games in Moscow. That was probably the harshest moment of the Carter Administration in terms of foreign policy. So, did the Red Army withdraw? History tells us that they did not - - until about 10 years later.

Then in 1984, the Soviet Union boycotted the Olympic Games in Los Angeles for some foreign policy reason that obviously had little meaning. The games happened without the team from the USSR and soon after that boycott the USSR ceased to exist - - thereby rendering their putative foreign policy objective(s) moot.

The cold hard truth is that Olympic boycotts have no real effect. They do not change the behaviors of people or nation-states. So when French President Sarkosy says he is considering various boycott options, you can feel free to yawn after you marvel at his sensitivity. When German Chancellor Merkel says she is not going to the Opening Ceremonies, feel good for her once you realize that she won’t have to sit through about four hours of mind-numbing boredom. Simultaneously, realize both of them are grandstanding and not much will come of their histrionics.

Here in the US, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has declared that President Bush should not attend the Opening Ceremonies. But either Speaker Pelosi is too cowardly to call for an outright boycott or she realizes in her heart that all of this posturing has less gravitas than a pinch of pigeon poop because she affirmatively wants US athletes to compete in Beijing. That’ll show those infernal Chinese autocrats; that’ll get them to change their behaviors…

Rep. Thad McCotter (R-MI) drafted a bill that would limit the abilities of USG officials and employees to attend the opening ceremonies and the “Parade of Nations”. Said Rep. McCotter:

“President Bush, as the leader of the free world, must uphold America’s beacon of liberty… This noble cause is harmed through his attendance as a guest of this oppressive government.”

Making sure that such vital legislation has a name that will be remembered by the voting public, Rep. McCotter has called it “The Communist Chinese Olympic Accountability Act”. In addition, he says that it intends to “stop politicians taxpayer funded junkets to the Communist Olympics.” [Cue The Battle Hymn of the Republic here]

Let me make two points. Rep. McCotter’s bill has as much chance of passing and being enacted into law as I have of becoming the next American Idol. Secondly, what is the pragmatic point Rep. McCotter hopes to make here. Forget USG employees and officials attending these annoying ceremonies; there are hundreds of rather important and influential US businesspeople attending Chinese events – some related to the Olympics and some totally divorced from the Olympics – every waking hour of every day. Doesn’t their “attendance” at those events/negotiations/meetings aid and abet this “oppressive government”? Sure they do, but Rep. McCotter knows that this is an election year where job loss is already a huge issue and the last thing he needs to do is to propose something that might cause more job losses – or increases in the consumer costs.

At the instant of time when the International Olympic Committee decided to award the 2008 games to the People’s Republic of China, all of these events were cast in concrete. Nancy Pelosi needed to have spoken out then referring to whoever may or may not be occupying the White House in the present. Rep. McCotter needed to have introduced his bill back then. Anyone who believed that none of these “conflicts” or “contradictions” would obtain in the days leading up to the games probably also believes that Shawn Kemp is a virgin.

There could have been no doubt that idealistic moralists were going to have differences with the PRC government over issues of freedom and human rights and the occupation of Tibet and the status of Taiwan. All those issues were there then; they are here now; they are going to be around for more than a little while once the Olympic Games are over. The plain fact of the matter is that those issues are not linked to the Olympic Games.

I said above that Olympic boycotts do not change the behaviors of people or nation-states. I do need to amend that statement narrowly. The US athletes who trained to compete in the Moscow Games and the Soviet athletes who trained to compete in the Los Angeles Games made serious changes to their behaviors. In addition, the people who were going to provide television and journalistic coverage of those Moscow Games certainly changed their behaviors. Should the current clamor for boycotts of the Beijing Games gain traction, these are the kinds of people who will have to change their behavior once again. But make no mistake; that will be the full extent of it.

The IOC has a history of staging games in countries that may not necessarily fit neatly into the high-ideals of people who are often described as human-rights activists. I do not want to get into any current political debates here so let me tread on relatively safe ground and suggest that Nazi Germany in 1936 was such a place. There was no boycott then or any great outcry for one. What I find most interesting is that by sending Jesse Owens to Germany that year, the US government unwittingly provided about as clear a demonstration as one could provide that the Nazi concept of Aryan supremacy in all things was flawed at the core. Might something like that happen this year to demonstrate some flaw in the PRC gestalt? Probably not. However, one thing is certain; if there is a boycott, there will be no opportunity for such an event to happen.

To all those noble orators who tell me that we need to do something to “send a message” to the Chinese government, let me suggest that they write a note and send it via carrier pigeon. This same message has been “sent” to China for years; it isn’t being received. I have to wonder if the “message senders” aren’t equally interested in getting publicity for themselves as they are in actually getting a message across to the Chinese government. If changing the behavior of the Chinese government were truly paramount, then maybe they might consider changing the message in some way…

In the spirit of full disclosure, I hope that all of these do-gooders get through the current spasm of venting in the next few weeks and then they take breather for a couple of months. My long-suffering wife and I are going to China in May. We will not be sending any messages to the Chinese government; we will not be there with any grandiose purpose such as to change the outlook of the Chinese people that has taken millennia to create; we will not do anything related to the Olympics other than possibly taking pictures of the venues in Beijing that will house Olympic events in August 2008. We are going there to see China and to try to learn what we can about Chinese art and history and culture. We were supposed to go to Tibet for four days; that part of the trip has already been “redirected”. The fact of the matter is that my trip to China will not change anything either - - except my understanding of Chinese art and history and culture. So, if these folks can just put this on hiatus for a while, I would really appreciate that.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(3)

Brian is a long-time reader of these offerings. When I got an e-mail from him recently asking me if I was going to do my annual post-mortem on my NFL pre-season predictions, two things ran through my head:

1. It had completely slipped my mind to do such a thing this year.

2. Since he attached a copy of that document for my reference - - even though I did have one stored in memory here in Curmudgeon Central - - I figured I must have really pulled a rock in those predictions.

Here is the link to that analysis in case you want to have it open to read along as I go through this post mortem.

Therefore, it was with just a small measure of trepidation that I double-clicked on the icon for my 2007 pre-season analysis to see how horribly I had done. Now we can go over those predictions together…

Coaches I thought might be on a hot seat were off base in most cases:

I thought Brad Childress might have problems in Minnesota because Brad Johnson and Tarvaris Jackson would not get the job done on offense for him. That part was right; they did not. However, Adrian Peterson ran the ball well enough to keep the Vikings offense viable.

Norv Turner survived in San Diego; I said he might be in trouble if the team sagged and only made a wild card slot in the playoffs. We will never know what would have happened in that scenario.

Tom Coughlin more than survived the season.

Wade Phillips survived the season, but stand forewarned; he will be on my list of coaches on the hot seat for 2008.

Joe Gibbs made the playoffs in Washington and then threw in the jock on his own leading to the strangest coaching search in the history of the NFL.

Dick Jauron eked out 7 wins with the Bills for the second straight year despite losing players and having to switch starting QBs in mid-stream.

Jon Gruden made the playoffs the year after the Bucs went 4-12 and just plain stunk.

Jack Del Rio led the Jaguars to the playoffs. I thought he might be gone if the team missed the playoffs. We will never know…

Romeo Crennel went from 4 wins in 2006 to missing the playoffs on the final weekend of the season. That saved his job.

Marvin Lewis continues to survive in Cincy despite a losing/underachieving season. I think the fact that he has time left on his contract and the Bengals notoriously do not like to pay coaches not to coach has something to do with that.

In the AFC West, I said that there was one excellent team, one pretty good team and two bad teams. Indeed the Chargers were excellent; the Broncos were not really at the level of “pretty good” but they were not awful either; the Raiders and Chiefs just plain stunk.

I thought the Chargers would win 12 games and the division championship; they won 11 games and the division championship. I thought the Broncos would win 9 games despite Jay Cutler at QB – about whom I remain skeptical. I did not have the Broncos in the playoffs and indeed, they did not make it because they only won 7 games. I had the Raiders winning 6 games for the year and the Chiefs winning 5; they each won only 4 games. They were both worse than I thought. I said the Oakland offense would likely continue to struggle and that the Chiefs would not be able to count on Larry Johnson to carry their offense for the year. Those things turned out to be the case.

For this division I’ll give myself a grade of A-minus.

In the AFC South, I said there was one excellent team (Indy) and one team with a lot of talent who was missing a QB (Jax) and one excellent young QB who did not have a plethora of talent around him (Vince Young/Tennessee) and one team that had been pretty bad for most of its existence (Houston). Other than the fact that David Garrard played exceptionally well in Jax, this was pretty much on target. The Houston Texans finished at 8-8 - - the best record in franchise history.

I had the Colts winning the division and 12 games; they won the division and won 13 games. I had the Jaguars winning only 9 games and missing the playoffs; they won 11 games and made the playoffs. I had the Titans winning 8 games and missing the playoffs. They won 10 games and made the playoffs. I said the Texans would win 6 games - - even though I said there was the outside possibility they could break even for the season. They did break even for the season.

For this division, I’ll give myself a grade of B.

So far, things are looking not so bad. However, before getting my hopes up too high, I thought I remembered some misjudgments in the “other half of the AFC”. I remembered correctly…

In the AFC North, I said there were three teams that could be playing well into January and one team that would “need visits by a sequence of fairy godmothers to break even”. That hapless team would have been the Cleveland Browns. Ooops.

I had the Steelers winning 10 games and winning the division on a tiebreaker and that is exactly what happened. Unfortunately, I had them besting the Ravens in that tiebreaker because I thought the Ravens would also win 10 games and make the playoffs; the Ravens won half that number and their coach got fired for that. I had the Bengals winning 9 games; they only won 7; and I had the Browns winning only 5 games and they doubled that total.

Because I got the Steelers win total on the button and that they would win a tiebreaker to win the division, I’ll give myself a grade of C-plus here.

In the AFC East, I had the top of the division and the bottom of the division picked correctly. That should be worth something - - no?

I said the Patriots would win the division and 12 games. They sure did win their division; they won all 16 games they played and no one else in the division played .500 ball. I thought the NY Jets performance in 2006 was for real and that the Jets were an emerging team. I predicted 10 wins and the playoffs for the Jets; they won all of 4 games and were out of the “playoff chase” by Thanksgiving. I thought the Bills would win 6 games this year; they actually won 7. In addition, I did say that the Dolphins would stink and that Joey Porter would not be nearly the huge impact on defense that many thought he would be when he signed on in Miami as a free agent. That was pretty much on target but I thought Miami would win 5 games and they won exactly 1.

Because my assessment of the NY Jets was so outrageously wrong, I’ll give myself a grade of C for this division.

Surely, things had to be better than this in the NFC. My long time and seemingly supportive reader, Brian, would not set me up to find the really horrible news at the end of the post-mortem, would he?

In the NFC West, I said there was one good team, two question marks and one perennially bad team. Considering that the Cardinals have won exactly one playoff game in the last 60 years, I think that might qualify them as “perennially bad”. The overall analysis of this division was on the mark.

I said the Seahawks would win the division with 10 wins and they did exactly that. I also said that Patrick Kearney would be a good addition to their pass rush and he was indeed. Sadly, things came apart after that… I thought the Niners would continue to improve under head coach Dick Nolan and that they would win 8 games. I gave the Niners 8 wins for the season; they managed to get only 5. I thought they would be the lowest seeded team in the NFC playoffs, which clearly they were not. However, I did say that Patrick Willis would be a big addition to their defense so I ought to get bonus points there. I gave the Cardinals 7 wins for the season and they actually won 8 games. I said the Cards should be able to score points on offense and they accumulated 404 points. Then there are the Rams; I thought they would win 5 games but they only won 3.

In this division, I’ll give myself a grade of B-minus.

In the NFC South, my predictions sort of went south - - if you catch my drift. For the first time in this post-mortem, I didn’t even get the division champion right. I was seduced by the strong showing of the Saints in 2006 and thought they were the class of this weak division. But true to form, the Saints became the ‘Aints again and spent January at home on their recliners watching the playoffs.

I thought the Saints would win the division and 11 games and make the playoffs. They only won 7 games. I thought the Panthers would finish second here with 8 wins because I thought they were underachievers in 2006 and ought to improve; they underachieved again and won only 7 games and were a miserable 2-6 at home. I said the Bucs would win 6 games and would be improved but “not nearly sufficiently better to win this division”; they won 9 games and did win the division. I did have the Falcons finishing last in this division and said they should start considering a rebuilding process to commence in 2008, which is what they are doing as I write this. I thought they would win 4 games and have toe overall #1 pick in the draft. The Falcons indeed won 4 games but the Dolphins’ bed-wetting season and the Rams’ debacle left the Falcons drafting in the #3 spot.

In this division, I’ll give myself a grade of D only because I think I nailed the Falcons’ season pretty well.

In the NFC North, I also was seduced by the strong showing in 2006 of the Chicago Bears and thought they could prevail in this division again. In fact, I called them a “clear-cut winner”. Channeling Lee Corso here, “Not so fast, my friend.”

I had the Bears winning the division and 12 games partly based on the fact that I thought they would get at least 5 wins from their divisional games. I even had them as the #1 seed in the NFC for the playoffs. The Bears won only 7 games and won only 2 in the division. Ouch! I had the Lions finishing second in the division with 7 wins. The Lions actually won 7 games despite losing four of their last five but they finished third. I had the Packers finishing third with 7 wins and that they might have trouble scoring this year; the Packers won the division with 13 wins and scored 435 points. Ouch again! I had the Vikings finishing last with 4 wins and they actually won 8 games.

In this division, I’ll give myself a grade of F. If there were such a grade as H, I’d give that to me here.

In the NFC East, things did not turn out nearly as I thought they would. I did say that all of the teams could cluster around the .500 level; and except for the Cowboys who had that spectacular early season run, all the teams did just that. However, the details of my predictions do not come out nearly as well as they ought to have.

I had the Eagles winning the division with 9 wins. Actually, they finished last in the division with 8 wins. I had the Cowboys finishing second with 9 wins. Actually they won the division with 13 wins - - and then laid a “Giant” egg in the playoffs. I said the Redskins would improve on their “shameful and prideless “5 win season in 2006 and would win 8 games. They did that and a bit more; they won 9 games and made it to the playoffs for a cameo appearance. I said that the Giants could win the division but would not. They did not win the division - - but they did win the Super Bowl. According to my calculations, they would not have been able to do that because my predicted 7 wins for them would not have allowed them into the playoffs in the first place; the Giants won 10 games.

In this division, I’ll give myself a grade of D-minus.

Well, Brian did not set me up too badly after all. I hit some predictions squarely on the head and some were so far off that they were almost comical. Assuming that I have time to do the analyses and put together a set of predictions for next seas