December 30, 2009
Mythical Picks - NFL - Weekend of 1/3/10
Here is rundown of last week’s Mythical Picks highlights and lowlights. And for the week, there were more highlights than lowlights…
1. I liked the Chargers/Titans to go Over 47. They did. Highlight!
2. I liked the Bills/Falcons to go Under 41. They did. Highlight!
3. I liked the Chiefs/Bengals to go Under 41. They went under 28. Highlight!
4. A coin flip said to take the Raiders/Browns Under 38.5. They did. Highlight!
5. I liked the Packers to cover 14 points against the Seahawks. The Packers won by 38. Highlight!
6. I liked Houston/Miami to go Under 41.5. They went Over. Lowlight!
7. I liked the Giants to cover 7 points against the Panthers. Not only did the Giants lose outright; they lost by 32 points. Lowlight!
8. I liked the Giants/Panthers to go Over 42.5. They did not. Lowlight!
9. I liked the Pats to cover 7.5 against the Jags. They did comfortably. Highlight!
10. I liked the Saints to cover 14 against the Bucs. The Saints lost outright. Lowlight!
11. I liked the Saints/Bucs to go Over 49. They did not come close. Lowlight!
12. I liked the Steelers to win and cover 3 points against the Ravens. The game was a Push. Meh!
13. I liked the Ravens/Steelers Over 42. It went Over by a point. Highlight!
14. I liked the Rams/Cards to go Under 43.5. They did. Highlight!
15. A coin flip said to take the Niners/Lions Under41. The game was Under by about 2 TDs. Highlight!
16. I liked the Broncos/Eagles to go Over 41.5. It went Over by more than 2 TDs. Highlight!
17. I liked the Jets +5 against the Colts because the game meant more to the Jets than to the Colts. The Jets won outright. Highlight!
18. I liked the Skins +7 against the Cowboys. The Skins never scored at all. Lowlight!
19. I liked the Vikes to win and cover 7 points against the Bears. The Vikings lost outright. Lowlight!
If anyone looks at these results and decides that they will use information regarding this week’s games as the basis for making cash wagers on NFL games, that person is a dope. Probably a good way to describe such a dope would be that he/she is a one-cylinder engine living in a V-8 world.
Comments:
I hope you saw the Redskins/Cowboys game last Sunday night because I do not know if I can explain to you in simple declarative sentences just how badly the Redskins played. After the Redskins soiled themselves on national TV the week before losing by 33 to the Giants, you might have thought that the team would come out with some level of energy - - if not competency - - this week in another nationally televised game. They did not. The Cowboys shut the Skins out; the Cowboys held the Skins to 218 yards of offense; the Cowboys dominated the Redskins about the same way the Wehrmacht dominated the Polish cavalry. Only people who are both employed by the Redskins and are subject to grand delusions could possibly think this game was nearly as close as the 17-0 score indicated. If the NFL worked on a “pay-for-performance” system, most of the Redskins’ players and coaches would have gotten $29.95 for that game.
The Saints - - a team that some said might go 16-0 for the regular season - - just lost a second game and this time it was to the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. The Saints led 17-0 and looked to be cruising. Then the offense stopped and the defense could not hang on and the game went to OT and the Saints lost. The Saints are 2-2 in their last 4 games and those 2 wins came over the Redskins (Feh!) and the Falcons (Meh!).
The Giants came off their domination of the Redskins to return home for what would be the final regular season game in Giants Stadium in the Meadowlands. The team brought out many of the former stars who played there for ceremonial purposes. And the present Giants’ team laid a huge egg losing to the Panthers by 32 points - - almost as many points as the Giants beat the Skins by a week ago. Jonathon Stewart carried 28 times for 206 yards against the Giants’ defense. That should embarrass the entire Giants organization.
By the way, the Charlotte Observer said that John Fox and his staff will all be offered the opportunity to come back to their jobs in 2010. Frankly, I think that is a good move. Fox’s record in Carolina is about a dozen games over .500 and you have to remember that he inherited a team that had gone 1-15 the previous season and lost its last 15 consecutive games. He did not walk into a garden spot…
The Texans ran out to a 27-0 lead over the Dolphins in Miami. Then the Texans went to sleep and the Dolphins woke up. The final score was Texans 27 and Dolphins 20 in a game that had two very distinct phases to it.
The Seahawks have not been a good road team for the past several years but last weekend they went to Green Bay and just plain stunk. Losing to Green Bay is nothing to be ashamed of; losing 48-10 should cause a smidgen of embarrassment. That sorry-assed performance added to the fact that the Seahawks lost at home to the Bucs just a couple of weeks ago makes me ask this question:
With all the talk around the NFL about coaches on hot seats, why isn’t Jim Mora Jr.’s name prominent on the rumor mill?
Yes, it is his first year at the helm of the team; yes, there have been injuries; no, the team has not been competitive for the past several weeks.
Last week, the Ravens were penalized 11 times for 113 yards. If the Ravens do make the playoffs and if they play that way in the playoffs, their tenure in the “loser leaves town” format will be brief indeed. Time for a bit of on-field discipline, gentlemen…
If you watched the MNF game where the Bears beat the Vikes 36-30, you might have come away thinking something along these lines:
Is it possible that the Bears are a much better offensive team with Devin Hester on the inactive list instead of on the field at WR?
Notwithstanding Jay Cutler’s winning performance Monday night, Dwight Perry had this observation about the Bears’ QB in a column in the Seattle Times last weekend:
“The biggest return lines of the year began forming:
“a) The morning after Christmas.
“b) Whenever Jay Cutler dropped back to pass.”
The NFC playoff picture is crystal clear with regard to who will be in the playoffs. However, only the Saints know what their seeding will be; the Saints are seeded #1. I think I have this right with regard to tiebreakers for playoff seeding:
If the Eagles win this weekend and if the Cardinals win this weekend, that will make the Vikes the 3-seed and it will make the Packers the 6-seed and will set up a first round playoff game between the Vikes and Packers. That would be fun…
The AFC playoff picture is as clear as mud. I think I have this one scenario scoped out properly; if you think I am wrong, please explain where I went wrong in the tiebreaker interpretation:
IF the Dolphins beat the Steelers this weekend AND if the Browns beat the Jags AND if the Pats beat the Texans AND if the Bengals beat the Jets AND if the Raiders beat the Ravens, then the Dolphins will be in the playoffs. If you are a Dolphins’ fan, you can take that five-team parlay on the money line. If it happens, you will have your team in the playoffs and you will have the money to go and fly wherever the game will be played and buy a scalper’s ticket and see the game. Good times…
The Games:
Indy at Buffalo – 7 (38): You have to look around to find any lines on this game at all. This line showing Buffalo as a full TD favorite signifies that the person who set that line is convinced that Peyton Manning will see precious little action this weekend. If this game mattered to the Colts – and it does not – they would be favored by a TD even on the road. For the record, this game means nothing to the Bills either; no game since Thanksgiving has meant anything to the Bills. No one should bet this game for real. For mythical purposes only, I’ll take the Colts with a full TD just because I never had the chance to do that all year long.
New Orleans at Carolina (no lines): This game might have had meaning had the Vikings won on Monday night. Now this game is totally meaningless and the fact that I cannot find a line on the game anywhere in cyberspace tells me that no one knows how the Saints are going to play this one. If Drew Brees sits and Mark Brunell plays, I think the Panthers can win the game; if Brees plays, I think it will be a close game and a high scoring contest (total in the mid-50s). If Steve Smith’s broken arm keeps him out, that will surely not help the Panthers’ chances.
Jax at Cleveland – 1 (38): This could be the worst game of the week. This is a totally meaningless game except for the fact that a Browns win would give them a 4-game winning streak to end the season and the potential illusion that the team is actually competent. A loss here would actually do the Browns organization more good than a win here would. The Jags seem to have packed it in for the season and the forecast is for anything but “Florida weather” in Cleveland this weekend. I’ll take the Browns to cover that one point spread and I’ll take the game Under.
Chicago – 3 at Detroit (45): This could be the worst game of the week. Yet another meaningless game between a bad team that showed a spark of life last week (Bears) and a really bad team that has its rookie franchise QB on IR at the moment and that gives up more than 30 points per game on defense (Lions). The Bears are the better team here so I’ll take them and lay the points - - mythically of course. Here is a prediction:
If the Bears win convincingly – giving them a 2-game win streak to end this miserable season – there will be no major changes in the Bears’ front-office or on the coaching staff. That maintenance of the status quo may not be such a good deal…
New England at Houston – 9 (46): That line says that the oddsmaker here thinks the Pats will not be playing the regulars very long. The Texans still have an outside shot at the playoffs but they have to win to keep those hopes viable. For the Pats, a win gives them the #3 seed in the playoffs; a loss might drop them to #4 if the Bengals win on Sunday night. Once again, I have never had the chance this year to take the Pats with 9 points so I’ll do that here just for Mythical Purposes. By the way, the Pats are +320 on the money line at the moment. If you believe that the Pats will go all out to win this game, that is a very interesting wager. Remember, the Pats are only 2-5 on the road for the season when the games mattered to them…
Pittsburgh – 3 at Miami (46.5): As mentioned above, I believe the Dolphins make the playoffs with a win here and losses by 4 other teams. I think the Steelers get in with a win here and losses by only 3 other teams (Ravens, Broncos and Jets). The Steelers have not been very good on the road this year (2-5) but the Dolphins have only been mediocre at home so far (4-3). There is no “venue call” to make here. The Steelers defense showed signs of life last week even though Troy Polamalu was still out of action. Purely on a hunch here, I’ll take this game Under.
Giants at Minnesota – 9 (48): The Giants stunk on Sunday; the Vikings have underachieved in each of the last two games. If you saw both of these teams in the past two weeks, you will understand why no one should bet on this game for real. If you saw both of these teams in the past two weeks, you might wonder why they were in contention for playoff slots. I think this will be a scoring fest; only the Rams in the NFC have given up more points than the Giants; the Vikes give up 20 points a game and have had the Bears and Lions twice already this season. I’ll take this game Over.
SF – 7 at St. Louis (41.5): Notwithstanding other games, this is the worst game of the week. The Niners are the better team to be sure but this is like a college bowl game - - the outcome depends on which team shows up willing to play at anything near their full capability. The Niners are 1-6 as a road team; the Rams are 0-7 as a home team. If you can find a “venue call” there, let me know. Purely on a hunch, I’ll take the Niners to win and cover and I’ll take the game Under.
Atlanta – 1 at Tampa Bay (41.5): The Bucs opened the week as a 1-point favorite and the line has moved quickly to the Falcons as the favorite by a point. The game means nothing but the Bucs have young players who need to make a good showing to assure that they get into the teams’ plans for 2010. I think this game will go Over.
Philly at Dallas – 3.5 (47): This is the best game of the weekend. If the Eagles win, they get a bye week in the playoffs. If the Cowboys win, they are the NFC East champs and will probably get the #3 seed. It is possible that if the Cowboys win, they will play the Eagles again next week in Dallas in round one of the NFC playoffs. If the Eagles win, they might have to face the Cowboys again two weeks from this weekend but that game would be in Philly after the Eagles have a bye week. I like the Eagles with the points here.
Green Bay at Arizona – 3 (43.5): Here is another game that could be replayed next week in the first round of the NFC playoffs. I think the wrong team is favored here; I like the Packers to win the game so I’ll take them with the points here. Also, I like the game Over.
KC at Denver – 13 (38): Denver needs help to make the playoffs after starting the season with a 6-0 record. The Chiefs have been out of it since training camp opened. Even though there is the potential for this game to wind up with a 41-37 score as the two defenses imitate swinging gates trying to stop runners and pass catchers, I’ll take the game Under.
Baltimore – 11 at Oakland (38): I think the Ravens are in the playoffs with a win here. Charlie Frye threw for over 300 yards last week; he isn’t going to do that this week against the Ravens’ defense. Since I think this will be a low scoring affair, that spread is very fat. I’ll take the Raiders with that many points.
Washington at San Diego – 3.5 (39): If this game meant anything to the Chargers, the game would be FUGLY. Since the game means nothing to either team - - other than Norv Turner giving a figurative flipping off to Danny Boy Snyder for firing him in the middle of a season when the Skins had a winning record - - and since my guess is that Jim Zorn will be fired within 15 minutes of the plane from San Diego touching down at Dulles International Airport, I suspect that the Redskins’ players will simply go through the motions here. The Redskins have shown no spirit all season long when there was the possibility that the coaching staff might have the ability to sanction them; I don’t see anything changing with lame-duck coaches. I like the Chargers to win and cover here.
Tennessee – 4 at Seattle (44): The Titans almost overcame their disastrous 0-6 start to sneak into the playoffs but they missed out. The Seahawks have been awful most of the year and particularly awful recently. In their last 3 games, the Seahawks have been outscored 106 – 24; that is not just losing; that is capitulation. I cannot take the Seahawks here even though the game means no more to the Titans than it does to the Seahawks. I’ll take the Titans and lay the points.
(Sun Nite) Cincy at Jets – 10 (35): Here is another line that says oddsmaker believes that the Bengals will rest their key players for at least a portion of the game. In addition, this is another game that could be relayed next week in the first round of the AFC playoffs. Nevertheless, that line is awfully fat for a Jets’ team that has the ability to turn the ball over multiple times in a game. I’ll take the Bengals with the points - - mythically of course.
Happy New Year.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…
Comments(3)