November 14, 2008
Mythical Picks - NCAA Weekend of 11/15/08
Without Mythical Picks last week, I had a form of “R&R” so I am back this week rested and relaxed and ready and … Enough of that nonsense.
Linfield College achieved its 53rd consecutive winning season in football two weeks ago. Last week, the Western Oregon University Wolves visited McMinnville Oregon and beat the Linfield Wildcats 17-9. Western Oregon finished out its season with a 7-4 record; Linfield’s record stands at 5-3 with one game left to play. This weekend, the Wildcats venture off to Puyallup, Washington to take on the “Lutes” of Pacific Lutheran University. PLU comes into the game with a 3-5 record. Linfield has won the last six games against Pacific Lutheran. Go Wildcats!
Here are some highlights and some lowlights from Mythical Picks two weeks ago:
Two weeks ago, I said, “The PAC-10 record for points allowed in a season is 469 by Oregon State in 1981. The Cougars look to blow by that record easily.” [They have already broken the record as will be discussed below. Highlight.]
Two weeks ago, I said, “Tulsa is 8-0 but the only way they find themselves in a big time bowl game is to go undefeated for the season and to pound opponents into the dirt…I think Tulsa stomps on the gas here and rolls over Arkansas by 2 touchdowns. [Tulsa loses outright. Lowlight.]
Two weeks ago, I said, “I think that Florida State’s defense can contain the option attack that Georgia Tech runs. I like FSU with the points here.” [Even though the game was a push, the final score was Ga Tech 31 FSU 28. That is not containing an offense. Lowlight.]
Two weeks ago, I said, “Once upon a time, a score of 17-14 would decide this game (OU/Nebraska); now it will be shocking if the total stays below 60. I see lots of offense here so I’ll guess that the game goes OVER.” [Final score OU 62; Nebraska 28. Highlight.]
Now one should think of using any information herein in such a way that it might influence one’s decision regarding which side of a wagering proposition one might choose to support. If you even think of doing that, please find the theoretical physicist living nearest to you and introduce yourself to him/her. You are what physicists have been seeking for many years now. You are the fundamental particle of stupidity - - the moron.
General Comments
Washington State broke the PAC-10 record for points allowed in a season. The record used to belong to Oregon State who allowed 469 points back in the 1981 season. Washington State has given up 502 points this year - - and there are still games left on their schedule. Of course, I will track this march into uncharted regions of futility.
In order to give up so many points, one has to have had a few games where one has given up an astronomical number of points. The Cougars have given up 69 points to USC, 66 points to Stanford, 66 points to Oregon State and 63 points to Oregon. That kind of futility deserves a label; and for that label, I will dig deep into my memory banks with regard to the National Hockey League. Back in the early 70s, the NY Rangers had a prolific scoring line; Jean Ratelle and Rod Gilbert were two of the line mates but I cannot recall the third member; they were the GAG Line because they averaged a “Goal A Game”.
When a football team gives up more than 60 points in a game, they yield more than a “Point A Minute”. That might allow you to think of the defense as a PAM defense - - only I would interpret the acronym as “Putrid As Manure”. And so, a label for defensive futility – the PAM defense – is born here…
The Coaches poll on 4 November reflected Texas’ loss to Texas Tech. The coaches dropped Texas to #7 in the rankings and had Oklahoma at #4. Didn’t any of those coaches remember just a few weeks ago when Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points? The Harris poll voters were only slightly better; they had Texas at #6 and OU at #5.
Jeff Bower had been the coach at Southern Mississippi for a long time; he had also played football there. He had guided the team to 14 consecutive winning seasons; and last year, the Golden Eagles went to a minor bowl game. That was not good enough for some folks in Hattiesburg and Jeff Bower “resigned”. Southern Mississippi hired a new coach, Larry Fedora. Their record is 4-6 with two games left to play. On November 1, the Golden Eagles soiled the sheets losing to UAB (a SHOE Tournament team) by a score of 70-14. Having a PAM defense is bad; having a PAM defense against a SHOE Tournament team is shameful.
The Rose Bowl should be contested by Penn State, Michigan State or Ohio State from the Big Ten against either USC or Oregon State from the PAC-10. Look at the potential match-ups there and tell me which one of them is “compelling”? There is only one: Penn State versus USC. We already saw Ohio State/USC; we already saw Penn State/Oregon State; Michigan State has very little “buzz”. If it turns out that the Rose Bowl matches Oregon State against Michigan State, then the “Granddaddy Of Them All” will be reduced to a 2008 version of the Bluebonnet Bowl with a big parade before the game.
Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State are good teams and all should play in bowl games against good opponents. I have no quarrel with any of that. However, other Big Ten teams who could show up in bowl games include Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Seeing Northwestern in a bowl game might – I said might – be interesting because they do not go to bowl games every year. However, do you really want or need to see Wisconsin, Minnesota and/or Iowa play another football game this year? I do not.
I want to clarify a BCS rule for everyone so that when the shouting starts you realize there is nothing anyone can do. The BCS bowls require 10 teams to compete in them. By rule, no conference may send more than two teams to that assemblage of 5 BCS Bowl Games. So, even if you think that three teams form the Big-12 and/or the SEC ought to be in the mix for those games, it cannot happen.
And that is why I am rooting against Oregon State for the rest of the year. I have nothing against the school or the team, but if they get into the Rose Bowl – as they can if they win out – then USC will go to another of the BCS games and that will knock out some other worthy team. If USC goes to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State is unlikely to get a BCS Bowl game invitation with 3 losses this year.
By the way, Ball State is 10-0 in the MAC. The last time Ball State was undefeated was in 1949; they were 8-0 that year. Just saying…
Do not forget that Utah is also 10-0 this year. They played TCU last week and won the game 13-10. They have a rivalry showdown against BYU next weekend. Just saying…
In case you forgot, Boise State is also undefeated this year. Just saying…
Ty Willingham (Washington) and Ron Prince (K-State) are fired as of the end of this football season. Both are African Americans; that leaves a total of 4 African American head football coaches at the 119 Division 1-A level of college football. Forget quotas and all that nonsense; that is clearly an “under-representation”. I do not know the answer to this one but it would be really interesting to have university presidents account for whatever numbers answer this question:
How many Athletic Directors at Division 1-A schools are African American?
Remember, university presidents tend to be the hiring authorities for Athletic Directors. This is purely a guess but I suspect the number is not greater than the four remaining African American head coaches…
University of Oregon president, David Frohnmayer, is the chairman of the “BCS Presidential Oversight Committee”. When President-elect Barack Obama said on ESPN the night before the election that he favored a college football playoff, you had to know that someone from the BCS would have to respond. Said President Frohnmayer:
“We deeply respect the President-elect and we are glad that he is a fan of college football. … We do not believe a playoff would be in the best interest of the sport, the student-athletes or our many other constituencies.”
Translated into English, what President Frohnmayer said was, “Buzz off, Barack. You handle the country and we’ll handle college football.” What I would love to see happen is the following:
President-elect Obama pays a visit to President Frohnmayer in Eugene. When they meet in the privacy of President Frohnmayer’s office here is what President-elect Obama could say:
“I like college football and I think a playoff is a great idea. You do not seem to agree with me.
“I want you to know that on January 22nd of next year there will be a new Attorney General who will answer to me. One of his/her first tasks will be to tell me why the Justice Department should not investigate the NCAA and the BCS under the anti-trust laws of the United States.”
Only the person who does President Frohnmayer’s laundry would know for sure…
The Shoe Tournament
In my quest to try to identify the worst team in college football (the Steaming Heap Of Excrement), here are the eight schools that would be in my tournament where the loser has to play on…
#1 seed: North Texas
#2 seed: San Diego State
#3 seed: SMU
#4 seed: Washington State
#5 seed: Washington
#6 seed: Tulane
#7 seed: Idaho
#8 seed: UAB
Teams that might still find their way into this tournament include Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Utah State and Ohio University.
The Ponderosa Spread Games
Two weeks ago, there were 5 Ponderosa Spread Games. The favorite covered in 4 of them and the other was a push
Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford and USC covered.
LSU pushed against Tulane.
That brought the season total as of two weeks ago to 38-20-3 for favorites to cover.
Last week, there were 7 Ponderosa Spread Games. [Take my word for it; I was able to find time to make that list and then to track the results.] The record for favorites covering last week was 2-5.
Boise State and Oklahoma covered.
Arizona, BYU, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas did not cover.
Tennessee lost outright to Wyoming as a Ponderosa Spread favorite.
The season total for favorites covering in Ponderosa Spread Games now stands at 40-25-3.
Indiana at Penn State – 35.5 (57): Penn State should be ready to inflict punishment on Indiana based on their last minute loss to Iowa last week. Indiana is not a good team. Indiana has lost twice this year to teams in the MAC (Ball State and Central Michigan). Will this be the laugher of the week?
Boise State – 36.5 at Idaho (59): Boise State is undefeated and still hopes for a BCS Bowl Game invitation. Idaho is a SHOE team. Laying more than 5 TDs on the road is rarely a good idea; and at this time of year, a weather intervention in that part of the world is not impossible. Will this be the laugher of the week? Don’t bet here…
Washington State at Arizona State – 36.5 (57): Arizona State is 3-6 this year and they are a 36.5-point favorite. That fact alone should embarrass the hell out of the Cougars. Here is another fact that should embarrass the hell out of the Cougars; they give up an average of 280 yards per game rushing. Yowza!
Missouri – 27.5 at Iowa State (65): Mizzou can clinch the Big-12 North title here. The Tigers came up short against top-shelf competition from the Big-12 South, but Iowa State is not in that class by any means. I think this game will get out of hand before halftime and Missouri will win by more than 4 TDs. If I were betting the game, I’d probably take it OVER - - assuming decent weather in Ames, Iowa on Saturday.
USC – 24 at Stanford (48.5): Here is a revenge game for you. Last year, Stanford was a 41-point underdog and beat USC outright 24-23. That will not happen again this weekend.
Utah – 30 at San Diego State (54): Utah wants a BCS Bowl Game invitation and needs to remain undefeated and blow away weak opponents to get one. SDSU is a weak opponent by any standard you might like to apply. Will this be the laugher of the week?
Games of Interest
Ohio State – 9.5 at Illinois (46): Last week, Illinois lost to Western Michigan at a neutral site; Ohio State’s losses this year have been to USC and Penn State. So why is the spread so small? Ohio State’s defense should have lots of trouble containing Juice Williams and the speed of the Illinois spread offense. There are good players on the Ohio State defense, but speed is not an abundant asset there. This is a revenge game for Ohio State; last year Illinois beat Ohio State in Columbus 28-21. That will not happen again this year - - but I’d be very cautious laying the points here…
Notre Dame – 4 at Navy (52.5): Here is another revenge game; last year Navy beat Notre Dame for the first time in forever by a score of 46-44. Navy is 6-3 and is assured of a bowl game in DC in December. Notre Dame is 5-4 and has yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. Charlie Weis will assume the play calling duties for Notre Dame this weekend; he had better not lose to Navy two years in a row. I’d be tempted to take this game UNDER.
Georgia – 10 at Auburn (48): Which is worse, the Georgia defense or the Auburn offense? Both are pretty bad. I do think that the Auburn defense is good enough to keep the Dawgs from piling up points so I like Auburn with the points at home here. Even more, I like this game UNDER.
Purdue at Iowa – 18.5 (44): Make no mistake; Purdue is not a good team. However, Iowa just might suffer some deflation after their last minute win over Penn State last week and so that line looks fat to me.
Texas – 13.5 at Kansas (67.5): Neither team has a pass defense worth talking about; Kansas’ pass defense is the worst in the Big-12. I see lots of points here and Texas winning by 3 TDs.
UAB at Tulane – 6 (54.5): This is a SHOE Tournament game; both teams were seeded this week in the putative SHOE Tournament. For that reason alone, I’ll have to make a pick here so give me UAB with the points. That is what my Ouija Board said to do…
South Carolina at Florida – 22.5 (49.5): When Steve Spurrier returns to Florida, that makes it a “game of interest” all by itself. Here you have two really good defensive teams. Florida still aspires to the BCS Championship Game; they will have to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game to have a shot. South Carolina started slowly this year at 1-2, but they have won 6 of their last 7 games. This will be a good game and that line looks FAT to me.
Nebraska – 6 at K-State (70): Kansas State is 1-5 in the Big-12; they have already fired their coach; they have lost their last 4 games; they still have a shot at being “bowl eligible”. Do you still harbor any doubts that there are just too many damned bowl games?
Mississippi State at Alabama – 22 (40.5): Here is yet another revenge game. Last year Mississippi State beat Alabama 17-12. In addition, this is a trap game of sorts for Alabama too. Last week they went to LSU to play the Tigers; next up on the schedule are the Auburn Tigers. Alabama will not lose to Mississippi State here but I think this will be a low scoring affair and so that is a helping of points I cannot ignore.
UCLA – 7 at Washington (46): Washington is awful; UCLA is “struggling” – to be as polite as I can about the Bruins. This game is interesting because it is the return of Rick Neuheisel to Seattle where he departed under less-than-congenial circumstances about 5 years ago. Under Neuheisel, the Huskies were 33-16; since he left, the Huskies are 18-50. Do not bet on this game, but take the time to read the Seattle papers today and tomorrow and Sunday to see what they say about Neuheisel; that might be interesting.
Finally, here is a comment from Mike Bianchi in the Orlando Sentinel regarding Texas Tech’s win over Texas a couple of weeks ago:
“Did you see the celebration last week when Texas Tech beat Texas? The last time we saw the locals having so much fun in Lubbock was during the tumbleweed races at the Wacahoota County Prickly Pear Festival.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…
Teams who play Ball State, Boise State, or Utah should lose to them on purpose. Since most conference share bowl revenues, it would mean more money for these teams if they lose to the undefeated team than if they win. The BCS as it stands creates a system that incentivizes losses (mid-level conferences know their only shot of a big payday will happen if one of their teams goes undefeated… the other teams would be acting in self interest to lose to that team). As unlikely as it is that a team would really throw a game, I wish some would, just to make the BCS supporters squirm. The more undefeated teams there are from non-BCS conferences, the better.
President-elect Obama pays a visit to President Frohnmayer in Eugene. When they meet in the privacy of President Frohnmayer’s office here is what President-elect Obama could say:
“I like college football and I think a playoff is a great idea. You do not seem to agree with me.
“I want you to know that on January 22nd of next year there will be a new Attorney General who will answer to me. One of his/her first tasks will be to tell me why the Justice Department should not investigate the NCAA and the BCS under the anti-trust laws of the United States.”
Obama has many more serious issues to deal with as President than the BCS system. That said, I would find the above scenario hilarious and would find it very hard to muster up any sympathy for the NCAA.
Corry:
I agree that if universities acted as “rational economic beings” the ones in the non-BCS Conferences would seek to have undefeated teams every year to share in BCS revenues to the greatest extent possible.
However, I don’t think all universities are rational beings - in economic or other senses. AND I doubt you could reliably convince the players to go along with that kind of behavior.
Rob:
To be sure, the President-elect has far more important things to do than to get involved with the goofs in the NCAA and/or the BCS system. Nevertheless, on “60 Minutes” last night, he said that he would “throw his weight around” with regard to this matter. To be fair, he did not say it was a top priority or something he would be devoting a lot of time to, but he did say he wanted to do something about it.
I’m not a lawyer so I can’t give you all the details here, but the NCAA has already been found in violation of anti-trust laws once before. That’s why they no longer control the TV rights to all conference games; that is partly why the BCS came into existence.
So, there has to be some kind of wariness on the part of those folks when it comes to the anti-trust laws as they exist today. There is no need for “new legislation” to put the fear of God in them.
A “Pam” defense also calls to mind the popular brand of cooking spray. One might argue that a PAM defense offers no friction, and that a fan of a team with such a defense may have to be “well-lubricated” to enjoy it…
Tony:
Yet another interpretation of a “PAM defense”. I like it. I wish I had thought of it first…
Thanx.
SC, sorry to be late to the party, but the third member of the NYR GAG line was Vic Hadfield.
Also for fear of God into universities - what if the Prez asked the IRS about college endowments? Aren’t nonprofits suppoed to have to disburse a certain percentage of their money each year to keep that status? Isn’t Harvard’s endowment roughly the GNP of Switzerland? (ok, exaggerated, but…) (note- the Ivies have stepped up financial aid in some response to hearing about this - could a football playoff be that hard to do?)
I don’t follow college ball much, but did a guy named FEDORA just take over in HATtiesburg and you let that go????
Ed:
Far too many years had passed for me to access the proper synapses to get Vic Hadfield’s name when I was writing this essay. Thanx.
If you want the IRS involved, all you would have to do is to remove donations to universities as legit tax deductions and you would get the rapt attention of the Presidents and the Boards of Trustees. If that is too much, then make any donation to the athletic department something that cannot be deducted.
I had not noted the FEDORA/HATtiesburg connection. I am definitely getting old and feeble here in Curmudgeon Central.
Yes, well, SC, the fact is I remembered watching Hadfield PLAYING with them, not from some book, so I am not too young myself