The Sports Curmudgeon®

After the disastrous showing in Mythical Picks two weeks ago, I should be happy with a net breakeven for last week. But I’m not. I want more. And so, I shall press on with these picks even if I am but a voice crying in the wilderness…

Last week, the OVER/UNDER picks continued to stink like an outhouse an August. For the week, they were 2-6. That takes the season record for these picks to a nasty 30-41-2.

Last week the Against the Spread picks were an acceptable 6-2-2. [The Redskins and Chargers both pushed.] That brings the season record for ATS picks to 55-53-4.

I did not hurry to do the NFL version of Mythical Picks this week prior to the three Thursday games because none of the three games looked particularly interesting to me. In Wednesday’s rant when referring to this year’s slate of Thanksgiving Day games, I said, “the NFL games on Thanksgiving stink.” Now in the afterglow of the holiday and the turkey and the NFL games on TV, do you really want to argue with that assessment? The “close game” yesterday was the Cowboys’ pantsing of the Seahawks by 25 points.

Of course, no one will even consider using any information here as the basis for making a real wager involving real cash money on a football game. You would have to be mighty stupid to do anything like that - - so stupid in fact that if you ever received a brain transplant the odds are that the new brain would reject you.

General Comments:

Last week was not a good week to be a home team in the NFL. Home teams went 5-11 last week. That is the worst performance by home teams this year. I am sure there have been worse weeks in the history of the NFL, but I do not have the time or energy to go and look for them.

The Seattle Seahawks – prior to this season – had a home record of 42-14 over the last seven years. No other NFC team could match that. The Seahawks have traditionally played less well on the road than at home. However, in 2008, the Seahawks seem committed to “equal opportunity ineptitude”. As of today, the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road and they are 1-5 at home.

How bad is the AFC West? Consider the Oakland Raiders for just a moment. The Raiders are 3-8; they have been outscored by 86 points this season; their home record is an anemic 1-4. I am not picking on the Raiders here because the AFC West is so bad that the Raiders can still win the division. In fact, they could win it by as much as two full games. That shows you how bad the division is as a whole.

How bad is the NFC West? If you saw the Arizona Cardinals endure a ritualistic disembowelment last night at the hands of the Eagles, you saw the team that has run away with that division. One more Cardinals’ win or any loss by SF wraps up the NFC West division crown for the ever-so-slightly-better-than-mediocre Cardinals. That’s how bad the NFC West is.

Having now watched the Detroit Lions play twice this year, I do not think it is a all that much of a stretch to put them on the clock for the #1 pick in the draft in April. Yes, I know the Chiefs only have one win and could capture that “honor”, but let me project the Lions into that spot for just a moment here. So, ponder this:

The Lions – and whatever new front office team they present in April 2009 – would not dare to draft a wide receiver like Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin with that pick. Or would they …?

There has been much discussion on ESPN about who is in the running for MVP this year. The talking heads have trotted out the “usual suspects” – mostly QBs with Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson and Albert Haynesworth getting perfunctory mention. Here in Curmudgeon Central, I observe the world through the other end of the telescope and so I would like to suggest that “Pacman” Jones is a candidate for MVP. Look at the facts; the Titans cut his sorry ass and the Titans started off the season 10-0 and are now 11-1. Addition by subtraction…

Randy Galloway is a columnist for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram; here is his assessment of the reinstatement of “Pacman” Jones to the Cowboys after his alcohol rehab:

“PacRat doesn’t have a drinking problem. He’s got a stupid problem. You can’t rehab stupid, OK?”

How bad is the Broncos’ defense - - having just found a way to lose to the Raiders? Consider a stat I ran across in the Denver Post:

JaMarcus Russell’s career completion percentage against the Broncos – in three games – is 70.5%.

JaMarcus Russell’s career completion percentage against teams not named the Broncos is 49.8%.

Now, before you attribute the Broncos’ mediocrity solely to the defense, consider this about their supposed high-powered offense led by the QB whose arm is stronger than John Elway’s was:

Since Sept 21, the Broncos have played four home games. In not a single one of those games have the Broncos scored more than 17 points.

The San Diego Chargers’ season has fallen far short of the Super Bowl expectations that the team cultivated and their fans rather expected. The fans seem to be abandoning team in droves and the Chargers now face the possibility of blackouts in their local viewing areas. The NFL granted the Chargers and extension of time to sell about 1000 tickets to this Sunday’s game against the Falcons to avoid a blackout. There are reports that there are several thousands of unsold tickets in the hopper for next Thursday night’s game against the Raiders. It will be interesting to see if these tickets find buyers.

Quick Quiz: (Answer below)

Who is the only NFL QB to throw a TD pass in every game his team has played this season?

In last week’s win over the Rams, the Chicago Bears’ defense only gave up 14 yards rushing. With five minutes left to play, the Rams had only 5 yards on the ground for the day. The Bears face the Vikings this week and the winner will lead the division by a game. If the Bears win, they will have swept the Vikes thereby holding the tiebreaker. This week’s game is important to both teams. In addition, if the Bears win, they could start a run to the playoffs because they have a relatively soft December schedule with 3 home games (Jax, New Orleans, and Green Bay) and a final game trip to Houston.

Since I mentioned the Rams above, in their last three losses - - none particularly close - - the Rams have trailed their opponents at halftime by a combined score of 99-6.

Here is the answer to the Quick Quiz:

Kurt Warner.

The Games:

SF at Buffalo – 6.5 (42.5): Here is yet another west coast team traveling to the Eastern Time zone. No west coast team has won a game with that geographical overlay all season long. I do not see that changing here. Buffalo needs this game to stay “playoff relevant”. Was Trent Edwards’ outburst against the Chiefs last week more than a single game event? This week could tell us something about that because the Niners’ pass defense is hardly robust. I like the Bills to win and cover here. I also like this game OVER.

Baltimore – 7 at Cincy (36): The Ravens beat the Bengals in Baltimore earlier this year by 7 points and the Bengals have had ten days to get ready for this game. But you never know what kind of performance you will get from Cincy – particularly against this kind of defense. Do not bet this game for real. My coin flip says that I should take the game OVER.

Indy – 4.5 at Cleveland (45): I think that the Colts are beginning to come on and I think that the Browns have been over-rated from the start of the season. If Derek Anderson expects to be a starting QB in the NFL, he needs to show that he can actually play the position and that last season was not an anomaly based on weak opponents. The Indy defense is not much better than average. Cleveland is only 1-5 at home this year. I want the Colts here and I’ll lay the points.

Carolina at Green Bay – 3 (42): The Panthers were pummeled by the Falcons last week. The Packers were pummeled by the Saints last week. Green Bay needs a win to stay within a game of the division lead; Carolina is tied for the division lead at the moment with Tampa and has Atlanta just a game behind so they need a win too. I am tempted to take the Panthers here but they really do not play all that well on the road so I will resist that temptation. I’ll take the game OVER.

Miami – 8.5 at St. Louis (45): Make no mistake; the Rams stink. But before I mindlessly bet against them here, consider that the Dolphins were spanked last week and have a division rival (Bills) coming up next week. Miami is the better team, but they are not yet so good that they can just show up and cover two scores against even a team as bad as the Rams. Supposedly, Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson will be back for the Rams this week – meaning the Rams will have at least two quality players dressed for the game. That line is fat; I’ll take the Rams with the points here.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – 3.5 (47): The NFC South race is nowhere near decided but a loss for the Saints here will put them three games out of the lead with only four games left to play. Just to clarify, that is not a good thing. In their first meeting this year, the Saints handled the Bucs but here is the stat that sways my thinking. The Bucs are 5-0 at home this year; the Saints are 1-4 on the road this year. I’ll take the Bucs and lay the points.

Giants – 4 at Washington (41.5): This could be the best game of the weekend - - unless the Bears/Vikes game or the Steelers/Pats game is better. This game means a whole lot more to the Redskins than it does to the Giants. At the moment, the Redskins are the second wild-card team in the NFC; given the Cowboys’ win yesterday, that will not be the case if they lose on Sunday. I expect a low scoring game so I’ll take the Skins with the points here. If you like the Giants, shop this line because you can find it at 3.5 in several places and even as low as 3 points at one of the Internet sports books.

Atlanta at San Diego – 5 (49): I do not understand this line. I really have no conviction either way as to how this game will unfold. I have consulted the Ouija Board and it says to take the Falcons with the points - - for mythical purposes only.

Denver at Jets – 9 (47.5): This line has yo-yoed all week starting out at 9 points, then sagging as low as 7.5 and then going back up to 9. The Jets have to suffer a small letdown after last week’s win over the previously undefeated Titans. Denver has to be smarting from their home loss to the Raiders last week. I’ll take the Broncos with the points here.

Pittsburgh at New England – 1.5 (39.5): This could be the best game of the weekend - - unless the Bears/Vikes game or the Giants/Skins game is better. New England is on an offensive roll but the Steelers’ defense is as good as it gets in the NFL this season. If the Pats win here, they will become serious contenders for the AFC East championship and a bye week in the playoffs because their next three games are at Seattle, at Oakland and Arizona at home. This game will be close and low scoring so I’ll take the Steelers with the points.

KC at Oakland – 3 (41.5): This is unquestionably the worst game of the weekend. Yes, I know I said above that the Raiders can still win the AFC West but when you step back and look at these teams, they both stink. Here is a trend item: Kansas City has won the last five times they played at Oakland. Can that trend item overcome the fact that the Chiefs are just plain awful and have a run defense so porous that the Raiders may not need to throw the ball more than 20 times all day? No, it does not. I want the Raiders to win and cover here.

Chicago at Minnesota – 3.5 (42): This could be the best game of the weekend - - unless the Steelers/Pats game or the Giants/Skins game is better. The winner here is in first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have a much tougher schedule after this weekend than do the Bears having to visit Arizona and then host Atlanta and the Giants. In their first game this year, these teams put 72 points on the scoreboard; that will not happen on Sunday night. I see this as a low-scoring game where both teams run the ball a lot and punt the ball often. I like the Bears with the points and I like the game UNDER.

Jax at Houston – 3.5 (48.5): No one would have called this line on this game back in August. Both teams are 4-7. Houston was projected to be a bit better than that; Jax was projected to be lots better than that. The Houston Texans have never hosted MNF since the franchise came into existence so the fans should indeed be rowdy on Monday night. So what. I still think Jax is the better team and Jax is 3-2 on the road this year as opposed to 1-5 at home. What’s up with that? I’ll take the Jags with the points here because I think they will win the game outright.

Finally, here is a comment from Jerry Greene in the Orlando Sentinel regarding the Dallas Cowboys’ auctioning off items from the locker room in Texas Stadium:

“But the item all true Cowboys fans should want is a genuine locker room toilet billed as ‘the throne of champions’ that comes with the entire stall intact. And the starting bid is a modest $300.

”Talk about the perfect gift for the man who has everything.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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It was early afternoon on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions already trailed the Titans 14-3 with more than half the first quarter left to play and it was obvious that the game was over. No more prep work for Thanksgiving dinner needed to be done for at least another two hours. At that exact moment, an ad came on saying that Dennys was giving away breakfast for $4.00. I asked rhetorically – and with no particular malice – what it meant to give something away in exchange for money. That seemed more like commerce than beneficence to me.

That is when #2 son, who was watching the game with me, said that commercial might be the dumbest one of the year. That was a challenge neither or us could resist and so we began to name the dumb commercials - - and the ones that merely annoy us. From that set of mental ramblings came the 2008 version of my “Bad/Annoying Ads List”

I am particularly annoyed by the e-harmony.com commercials with the saccharine-sweet couples who knew they were in love even before they met their significant other. I always wonder if that would have been the same feeling had the significant other looked like the love-child of Quasimodo and Mama Cass. However, that only began my annoyance associated with those kinds of ads. One of the rivals to e-harmony.com claims that they can provide matches to people who are rejected by e-harmony. Oh, swell; let me quickly sign up with an Internet service that will fix me up with rejects. That’s what I need…

How about that chick with the monobrow who uses cashew nuts as her perfume to attract guys? I don’t want to know what she does with that cashew nut right after she dabs it onto her cleavage. Even e-harmony is not going to get her set up in a meaningful relationship no matter how many compatibility tests they run.

Here is what we all have to hope for. None of these “match-making services” ever fixes up the little girl from the DLP HD TV ads – the one that says, “It’s the mirrors…” – with the zombie kid in the Mazda ads that intones, “Sumpum’s up…” Frightening thought.

Red Stripe Beer has an ad where a black guy uses the beer to get a klutzy white guy to dance. The tag line is “Red Stripe and reggae - - helping our white friends dance for over 70 years.” Please imagine the outcry if it were the white guy making some stereotypical remark about the black guy. What would Al Sharpton have to say if the tag line were “Red Stripe and reggae - - preventing black folks from getting into college for over 70 years.” I do not think Rev. Sharpton would be pleased.

In a way, I am glad that the financial crisis happened because it got rid of the stupid ads where the big gorilla was in the elevator, steam room, bedroom with some dude musing about annuities and retirement planning. They may have been trying to portray him as the 800-lb gorilla in the room but he came off as a jackass.

Another annoying “financial ad” is the one for JG Wentworth with the cadre of clods all screaming that it’s their money and they need it now. I want to scream back at them that it’s my life and I need them out of it now. By the way, a structured settlement is set up in such a way that you receive money over a period of time so, in fact, it is not your money now at all. If it actually were your money, you would not need JG Wentworth…

Three words here should suffice to let you know the next series of ads on my annoying list - - five dollar footlong.

The ad for hotels.com where two hotel employees are kneeling by a bathtub blowing bubbles in the water through straws to simulate a Jacuzzi is very disturbing imagery indeed. If I used hotels.com, the last thing I would want would be these dudes in my bathroom whilst I tried to bathe; if I stayed at that hotel and something like that happened, I would probably be on 911 very quickly.

The series of Geico ads with the cavemen started out interestingly. Now they are nothing more than annoyingly repetitious. In addition, they seem to have spawned an imitator with the theme of “Messin’ With Sasquatch”. These imitation ads never did go through an interesting/humorous phase; they have been stupid from the start.

The Christie Brinkley/Chevy Chase swimming pool ad for Direct TV was not funny the first time I saw it. You may be sure that it did not get any funnier or any more entertaining the next 2000 times I saw it. I do not have Direct TV and I do not plan to acquire it.

How about the four geniuses who go out for steak night only to find that one of the goofs has the parking lot guy bring him a triple steak burrito from Taco Bell. And the other guys look at him enviously as he contemplates eating that concoction. Let me be clear about this; Taco Bell used to have the slogan, “Make a run for the border…” In case you don’t realize it, eating too much Taco Bell stuff can cause you to “make a run” for something other than the border

I wonder if the Center for Disease Control is aware of the worldwide pandemic of enlarged prostate glands and overactive bladders. There has to be such a pandemic or else there would be no reason to have five bazillion ads on TV dealing with urination.

All of the ads and infomercials for “male enhancement” products are silly. What I find really interesting is that some try to claim that they are all natural. You know; if there was a plant or herb out there that actually did that, men may have consumed it to extinction by now. They never seem to address that point…

The erectile dysfunction products continue to find ways to be stupid. Cialis tells us that by using it, you can respond to her “when the moment is right”. Let me be clear about this. If you cannot respond, then the moment isn’t/wasn’t right. Cialis is not part of that equation.

In addition, what about the disclaimer in the Cialis and Viagra ads that tell you if you experience a sudden loss of vision or hearing, you should contact your doctor. Excuse me, but if I can’t hear, what good is calling him on the phone going to do. If I can’t see, how am I supposed to find the phone.

Pizza Hut has a stupid ad - - the one where people are eating pasta at an “upscale Manhattan restaurant” and they do not realize that it is Pizza Hut delivery stuff until the maitre d tells them. Then they all laugh and giggle about it. Imagine how much they would be laughing if they were not being comped for the meal and had to pay Manhattan prices for Pizza Hut pasta. I think there might be more rioting than laughing…

There was an interesting juxtaposition of ads on an NFL game just a couple of weeks ago. First we had the Pizza Hut ad for a special dinner where you could get 3 lbs of pasta, a medium pizza and bread sticks - - carbo loading anyone? - - as dinner for yourself and friends. The ad showed this dinner being served to six people. SIX!

Immediately following that ad came the NFL promo for “Play 60” where the NFL and its players are trying to fight childhood obesity. Excuse me, but if the NFL did not show an ad where SIX people were expected to eat 3 lbs of pasta, a pizza and breadsticks as dinner, there might be less obesity in the country of the childhood and adult variety.

Finally, to bring this all full circle, I am always amused by the infomercials that explain if I call in the next ten minutes, they will give me a “free gift”. Excuse me, but if you have to pay for a gift, it isn’t a gift. Just like Denny’s can’t “give away” a breakfast for $4.00.

I tell you, this is all very sad … and annoying.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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The college football games this weekend are dispersed far more widely than usual. There is one major game on Thursday and about a half-dozen other interesting contests on Friday. That’s why Mythical Picks are out early this week.

Here are some highlights and lowlights from last week’s Mythical Picks:

“Assuming that Tulsa wants to close out its season at home with a positive game, they should wax Tulane.” Final Score: Tulsa 56 Tulane 7 [Highlight]

“I like OU (Oklahoma) at home to win and cover and I like this game OVER (77).” Final Score: OU 65 Texas Tech 21 [Highlight]

“I fully expect Syracuse to lose, but that line looks fat to me.” Final Score: Syracuse 24 Notre Dame 23 [Lowlight]

“… that is why Washington will win the Apple Cup this year. Moreover, Washington will cover the spread in the process. Final Score Washington State 16 Washington 13 in double OT. [Lowlight]

No one should think of using any information here as the basis for making any wager on a college football game that involves real money and/or any commitment to perform some act that might be abhorrent or embarrassing to him/her. Should anyone even contemplate such silliness, here is a summary of my thinking about such a person:

I don’t know what makes you so dumb - - but it’s really working.

General Comments:

It is not often that I offer up praise to the NCAA mavens; but when they do something right, I have an obligation to point it out. Last weekend, Myron Rolle – a safety on the Florida State football team – faced a conflict. He had a game scheduled in College Park, Maryland and he had an interview in Mobile, Alabama on the same day for a Rhodes scholarship. The NCAA granted an exemption for Rolle to take a chartered jet from the interview to the game site so that he could do both things on the same day. Technically, that charter jet is a violation of the rules, but the NCAA recognized that Rolle is actually a “student-athlete” and that it was a good idea to make an exception in this publicly known situation. Congratulations to the NCAA.

Oh, by the way, congratulations too to Myron Rolle who won himself a Rhodes scholarship. Rolle is a pre-med student and aspiring neurosurgeon who carries a 3.8 GPA around with him while also playing safety for a major college football team. To be sure, Florida State’s program has come under its fair share of scrutiny for the antisocial behaviors of some of its players, but that program deserves positive scrutiny for Myron Rolle.

I know of three football players at major schools who were also Rhodes Scholars. I am sure there have to have been more than these three prior to Rolle’s achievement. Looking at this list, Myron Rolle is in good company:

Justice Byron “Whizzer” White (Colorado)

Pete Dawkins (Army)

Pat Hayden (USC)

The NCAA Division II football teams have a football playoff. Last weekend in one of the preliminary round games in that playoff, there was a game in which neither defense chose to show up. Abilene Christian beat West Texas A&M in that game by a score of 93-68. There will be more than a few college basketball games this season that will not record that many points…

A week ago Tuesday, Northern Illinois visited Kent State and clobbered the hosts 42-14. The most interesting stat from that game was the announced attendance of 2,267 hardy souls. The weather was bad; Northern Illinois is hardly a draw; Kent State has been well below average this season; I doubt I would have gone to the game had I been anywhere near the stadium. But still… It is hard to believe that a Division 1-A college football game could draw two-thirds less people than a typical WNBA game.

I ran across this statement earlier this week:

“Florida became the first SEC team to score 42 points or more in six consecutive games.”

Here is what that statement means to me:

This is proof that ESPN has way too many interns digging up stats for them.

Here is a stat that is easy to find and easy to interpret. In the Tennessee win over Vandy last week, the Tennessee passing game was 4-9 for a total of 21 yards and 2 INTs. The new coach at Tennessee has to find a way to make a major improvement in the passing game…

When Syracuse fired Greg Robinson, they still owed him $1.1M. When San Diego State fired Chuck Long this week, they still owed him $1.4M. As the economy weakens, it may be harder for schools to put the arm on alums to come up with hefty buy-out amounts for failed coaches. Alums may figure that it would cost less to buy out the goof in the Athletic Director’s seat who hired the failed coach. Just saying…

Syracuse’s shocking win at Notre Dame last week took the dull moans of unhappiness with Charlie Weis and turned them into roars. I must have read a dozen different columns this week about why Charlie Weis has to be fired from his job in South Bend at whatever cost to the school and/or the boosters. One conclusion that some of Weis’ opponents have begun to draw is that his reputed offensive genius and creativity is a sham because he got that reputation with the Patriots during the days when the Patriots were “stealing” defensive signals. Let me try to be rational about this for a moment here:

1. There is no immutable law of the universe that assures Notre Dame of football success. The program has stunk before and it can stink now and again in the future. That is permissible.

2. The recruiting classes at Notre Dame are routinely overrated. The fact that a kid even thinks about Notre Dame gives him a boost in the projected value of him as a player. Notre Dame is not deep in talent and has not been for about the last 6 or 7 years.

3. It is equally as wrong for columnists/analysts to fawn over Notre Dame as it is to heap abuse on the coach and the team for a mediocre season. Mediocre talent tends to generate 4-8 wins per year; that is the definition of mediocrity.

4. What Charlie Weis has shown so far is that he is not a spectacular recruiter. If he ever had superior physical talent on the offensive side of the ball and still failed to produce points and wins, then one might begin to conclude that his reputation was earned in a “special environment”.

Having said all of that, here is a situation that would be a delicious irony:

1. Notre Dame fires Charlie Weis.

2. The University of Washington hires Charlie Weis - - thereby allowing him to follow in the footsteps of Ty Willingham yet one more time.

3. Not gonna happen…

Bill Snyder is returning to coach Kansas State football at age 69 after a three-year sabbatical from the job. If I were in Manhattan Kansas, I would be on the lookout for a change in the K-State out-of-conference schedule very quickly. North Texas, Montana State and La-Lafayette are OK; they should provide blowout wins to make Snyder’s team look good early in the year. However, a road game at Louisville will have to come off the charts. Someone in the AD’s office will be on the phone posthaste to the Quad City School for Quadriplegics. That’s Snyder’s MO…

Interestingly, Snyder chastised the press at his introductory press event for breaking this news story before he had the time to let his friends and football contacts know what he was about to do. Snyder told the assembled folks, “I think that’s sad, and also disrespectful.”

Memo to Coach Snyder: Get over yourself. Breaking news is what reporters get paid to do. If people didn’t care to read/hear such breaking news, you would not have your job at the generous salary you are getting. You are 69 years old; grow up!

In this time of coaching turnover, here is an interesting thing to consider. Since 1976, the University of Oregon has had exactly two head football coaches - - Rich Brooks and Mike Bellotti. With a tip of the hat to Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno who have been in their jobs since 1976 or longer, there are certainly not a dozen schools that can match or exceed that level of stability within the football program.

Iona College is dropping football. Iona had played in the Division 1-AA Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference but six of the MAAC schools dropped football between 2002 and 2007 leaving only Iona and Marist with active programs. Two teams do not a conference make… No word from Marist yet about its football future.

Last Thursday, Georgia Tech spanked Miami 41-23 - - but that score was cosmetically close because it was 41-10 at the end of the third quarter. Greg Cote provided analysis of this game in the Miami Herald:

“Still can’t get over UM giving up 472 rushing yards in Thursday’s loss at Georgia Tech, the most allowed by a Canes team since 1944. You knew it was bad in the fourth quarter when that guy from the Yellow Jackets band busted a long run while carrying his sousaphone.”

“The ‘’triple option'’ offense Georgia Tech uses seemed to completely confuse Miami. Aside to UM coaches: Next time, became familiar with the opponent’s offense and then game-plan to, you know, stop it.”

The SHOE Tournament

This will be the final week for most of the really bad teams in the country to play a football game and so this will be the penultimate seeding for my hypothetical SHOE Tournament to identify the worst team in the country - - the Steaming Heap Of Excrement.

#1 seed: North Texas (again)

#2 seed: SMU (up a notch this week)

#3 seed: Tulane (up a notch this week)

#4 seed: Eastern Michigan (up three notches this week)

#5 seed: Washington (up a notch this week and winless for the year)

#6 seed: Miami (Ohio) (making a late appearance here)

#7 seed: Idaho (again)

#8 seed: San Diego State (down six notches this week)

The Ponderosa Spread Games:

Last week there was only 1 Ponderosa Spread game. Tulsa was the overwhelming favorite there and Tulsa covered.

That brings the season record for favorites covering to 43-27-3

This week there are three Ponderosa Spread Games:

Texas A&M at Texas – 35.5 (68.5): You can watch this one on Thursday night if you do not get NFLN or if you get bored watching the Eagles/Cardinals game there. The Aggies have beaten Texas the last two years running. Texas cannot allow that to happen this year if they want to be considered for a BCS Bowl game. In fact, Texas is highly motivated to step on the gas and not let up at all. The line started the week at 34 and is already up to 35.5; I would not be shocked to see it at 36 by game time.

Notre Dame at USC – 33 (47): Like Texas, USC will need “style points” if it hopes to find a way into BCS Championship Game consideration. The line opened this week at 28.5 and immediately went to 30. It has climbed inexorably – seemingly by the hour – to its current level. This is a Saturday night game up against Oregon/Oregon State and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State - - so there is no need to watch this train wreck.

Washington State at Hawaii – 29 (55.5): So much for the Apple Cup champion getting respect… Hawaii is a 6-5 team whose last win was by 32 points over a miserable Idaho squad. Unless Washington State can give a better accounting itself, it might just resume its position in the SHOE Tournament along with Idaho. As a sidelight, Washington State has given up 549 points this year; a 51-point outburst by Hawaii could put that total in the “seventh century”…

Games of Interest:

Oklahoma – 7 at Oklahoma State (72): Since losing to Texas, OU has scored an average of 59.2 points per game. The way they do this is to give Sam Bradford enough time to paint a mural back there in the pocket while waiting for receivers to come open. Oklahoma State’s pass defense has shown its vulnerability to high-octane passing attacks so either they must generate a pass rush on Saturday or they will have to figure a way to score more than 50 points to have a chance to win. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game and you know they watched what OU did to Texas Tech last weekend. Oklahoma State knocked OU out of BCS consideration in both 2001 and 2002. They have a shot to do it again here in 2008 but I would not bet on that. I would much prefer to take the game OVER – assuming that there isn’t snow in Stillwater on Saturday.

Colorado at Nebraska – 18 (57.5): Last year, the score of this game was 65-51; that will not happen again this year for the simple reason that Colorado does not score very much. They have only gone over 30 points twice all year – not since September 6 mind you – and the opponents for those offensive outbursts were Colorado State and Eastern Washington. The Nebraska defense is not to be confused with the Steel Curtain, but it should keep Colorado at or near 20 points.

Baylor at Texas Tech – 21.5 (71): Will Texas Tech show up with a hangover from its beat-down last week by OU or will it show up spring-loaded to the pissed-off position? If it is anything even close to the latter, they will clobber Baylor here. Baylor is better this year than in recent years, but do not delude yourself that they are a threat to a Texas Tech team that cares about the outcome of the game. I like Texas Tech to win and cover.

Kansas at Missouri – 16 (69): Missouri will play in the Big-12 Championship game in this same stadium (in KC) very soon. This is a tune-up game for them even though it is a big rivalry. Neither pass defense is very good; both teams can and will throw the ball. I saw what Texas and its passing game did to Kansas; Missouri can do similar things. I would not bet this game for real, but for mythical purposes only, I’ll take Missouri and lay the points.

Florida – 16.5 at Florida State (57.5): Florida has won its last seven games by 28 points or more; that is called being “on a roll”. Florida State can still play for the ACC Championship this year and they have lost their last four games to Florida; so, they have incentive here. The Florida State defense is really good; they rank 7th in the country so I do not think Florida will be able to run up a win by 4 TDs here. The problem is that Florida’s defense is good too and they do not have to stop nearly so fearsome an offense. I like Florida State with the points here.

Georgia Tech at Georgia – 8.5 (48.5): Georgia has a very good run defense; Georgia Tech lives by running the ball in a triple option offense. That is the yin and the yang of this game. I like Georgia to win the game at home but I have a sense that the line is fat…

UNC – 7.5 at Duke (44): The good news for Duke is that they are a lot better this year than they were last year. The bad news for Duke is that UNC was better than Duke was last year and UNC has improved even more than Duke has this year. Technically, UNC has to “travel” to this game but in reality, it’s only a 20-mile trip. I like UNC to win and cover here.

Maryland at BC – 7 (42): Given Maryland’s inconsistency this year, you would be nuts to wager on this game. If there is an angle to be played it is that Maryland’s offense has been “absent” for the past couple of games and BC’s defense is very strong. So, if I had to make a pick – which I don’t – I would take the game UNDER.

West Virginia – 3.5 at Pitt (49): This big rivalry game will mean something in the Big East standings only if Cincy loses to Syracuse this weekend. Pitt’s pass defense has been exposed more than once this year and West Virginia can throw the ball. Pitt relies on a tough running game and they should be able to do that to West Virginia on Friday. I like Pitt at home with the points here; they have a real shot to win this game outright.

Auburn at Alabama -14 (41): Auburn has won this huge rivalry game six years in a row. If you do not think that rankles Alabama fans – and coaches and players –, you are wrong. Auburn needs this game for bowl eligibility so it has a double meaning for them. The essential element of this game is that Alabama has a strong defense and the Auburn offense has been AWOL for most of the year. I think that Alabama wins and covers here.

LSU – 4.5 at Arkansas (52.5): LSU has stumbled for almost a month now but Arkansas is not very good at all. Even on the road here and with nothing approaching BCS invitations to play for, I think LSU wins big here.

South Carolina at Clemson “pick ‘em” (40.5): South Carolina has had two weeks to prepare for this rivalry game and even with their spotty offense, I think the Gamecocks are the better team. I’ll take South Carolina here.

Oregon at Oregon State – 3 (62): This is a big rivalry game; both teams are 8-3; Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl with a win here; the last time Oregon State was in the Rose Bowl, the Beatles hadn’t begun feuding with each other yet. In 1983, these teams played to a 0-0 tie in a game that “featured” 11 fumbles, 5 INTs and 4 missed field goals. Such ineptitude will not happen this year. Oregon State has injury problems related to their starting QB and RB. The strong Oregon State defense will need to play a top-shelf game Saturday to prevail. If you go looking for this game on your cable system, it’s on Versus. I’ll make this a venue call and take Oregon State to win and cover - - even though I don’t want Oregon State in the Rose Bowl to play Penn State in a rematch game.

Akron at Temple – 2.5 (57.5): Just a hunch here, but I do like Temple to win this game comfortably…

Happy Thanksgiving.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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In case I do not write tomorrow, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who reads these offerings on a semi-regular basis. I hope that you can spend time this weekend with those who are close and important to you and that you have a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday.

The NFL has become a part of Thanksgiving in the US. It started with a traditional game in Detroit; then they added a game in Dallas in the later afternoon; now they have a night game on NFL Network. It has been a while since the Detroit game was an “important game”; often the Dallas afternoon game is one that “means something”; clearly, NFLN wants the evening game to be important.

Remember back in the World Series when there was the suspended game and rain was forecast for at least another 24 hours in Philly and Commish Bud Selig said he was prepared to wait for good weather to finish that game. He said he would wait until Thanksgiving to finish Game 5 in decent weather. OK, Commish, we would like to take you up on that offer this year because the NFL games on Thanksgiving stink.

Detroit plays Tennessee in the early game. As you know the Lions are winless this year at 0-11; they play the Tennessee Titans who are 10-1 with that lone loss coming last weekend. Just what the Lions and the viewing public needed – a Titans’ team coming into Detroit looking to get a foul taste out of their mouths. Only seven teams have ever started an NFL season at 0-11 or worse in the era of 16-game seasons. Only the Lions have done that twice (last time was in 2001).

Last week, the Lions started off with a 17-0 lead on the Bucs and the Lions managed to hold Bucs’ RB, Cadillac Williams, to a total of 26 yards rushing. Nonetheless, the Lions lost the game 38-20; in the final three quarters of that game, the Bucs outscored the Lions 38-3.

Here is how bad the Lions are. This tradition of a Thanksgiving Day game goes back to 1934 in Detroit. This year, the game was not sold out on Monday and the NFL announced that the team would have an extension in the deadline to sell out the game before the league rules imposed a blackout on the home viewing area. I know that the Lions are bad and the economy in Detroit is even worse, but the lack of a sell-out for this game says something about the fans in the area reaching the end of their rope with the ineptitude of this team.

The Lions are 11-point underdogs at home in this contest. If you spend time watching the game, give thanks that you do not have a gambling problem as evidenced by the fact that you do not have a dime on the game.

The second game will match the Cowboys and the Seahawks. The fact that the Lions are winless and that the Chiefs have only one win provides cover for the Seahawks’ incompetence at 2-9. The last time the Seahawks started the season as badly as 2-9 was in 1992 and that iteration of the team finished the season at 2-14. Not a good omen for Seattle fans…

The Seahawks are 13-point underdogs on the road in this contest. Once again, you have the opportunity to give thanks that you do not have a gambling problem as evidenced by the fact that you do not have a dime on the game.

Then, the NFLN game of the week should be nicknamed the “Starbucks Bowl” because it is going to take a whole lot of double espresso shots to stay awake to watch the Eagles and the Cardinals play a game that really means nothing to either team. The Cardinals will win their division absent Divine retribution directed at the team; the Eagles’ season is over; let me be very clear here, O … V … E … R …

For reasons known only to the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, the Cardinals are 3-point underdogs on the road in this game. Perhaps the reasoning is that when the Cards have played in the Eastern Time zone this year, they have lost. Philadelphia is in the Eastern Time zone. Ergo… Other than that, there is no recent on-field evidence to suggest that the Eagles are a superior team to the Cardinals. For the third time in a single day, you may give thanks that you do not have a gambling problem as evidenced by the fact that you do not have a dime on the game.

And so, the overarching question posed by the NFL menu for this Thanksgiving Day boils down to this:

Who wouldn’t want to watch World Series caliber baseball instead of this sorry-assed lineup of games?

Speaking of baseball, the Detroit Tigers do not seem to have gotten the memo that the economy in that part of the world is less than robust. The Tigers announced this week that they would be raising some ticket prices for 2009. Over and above that, the Tigers will institute “premium pricing” for 21 of their games including Opening Day and the series involving the Cubbies, and Red Sox and for all Friday and Saturday night games from June through the end of August. Here is another memo the Tigers’ seem not have received: They finished last in the AL Central last year. If they tank again this year with those increased prices, there will be loads of empty seats in Comerica Park.

Notwithstanding the Tigers’ seeming lack of contact with reality, the LA Dodgers have taken their efforts to fleece their fans to another orbit. The Dodgers just announced that almost 700 seats in their new spring training park in Arizona will go for $90 a game. That’s right; $90 for a seat at a Spring Training game. The other tickets will go for $18 – 30.

It has been more than a few days since the Yankees offered CC Sabathia a reported 6-year deal for $140M. Please notice that he has not set any world land speed records to haul his ample derriere to NYC for the sole purpose of getting ink to dry on that document. Could it be that he might not want to be one of the acts in the Steinbrenner Circus? Combine that with the fact that the Yankees have reportedly also offered AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe deals in the 4-year $60M range and both of them have yawned.

Imagine if that kind of thinking actually caught on among baseball players and that the Yankees were unable to sign these starting pitchers this winter. Yammering Hank Steinbrenner might pop a blood vessel over that one since he clearly believes that it is his birthright as a Yankees’ owner to buy whatever players he chooses to buy for whatever season it appeals to him.

Here we are in mid-November and the NBA season is chugging along on its way to that part of its season where it attracts marginal interest from US sports fans - - February through April. If you want to know how irrelevant these November games are, consider a report from USA Today this week. It seems as if Michael Jordan – part owner and chief executive of the Charlotte Bobcats – is in Dubai and is scheduled to be there through early December. Even he cannot feign interest in the irrelevant early-season NBA games…

I also read a report that the Knicks offered Stephon Marbury to the Dallas Mavericks even-up for Jason Kidd. It did not happen but here is my interpretation of the proposed trade:

Neither team would be shoring up its defense via this transaction because neither of these guys can or will guard an Easter Island statue.

The Columbus Crew captured the MLS Cup last weekend beating the NY Red Bulls 3-1. The game was well-played and had a good fast pace to it; MLS is not yet near the pinnacle of soccer competition as it exists in Europe, but these two teams played a competitive and interesting game. The game was played in Los Angeles and all 27,000 seats were sold for the game; not every ticket holder showed up, but the stadium looked about 95% full to me. Prior to the game, Greg Cote had this comment in the Miami Herald:

“The Columbus Crew and the New York Red Bulls battle Sunday for the Major League Soccer title. Wouldn’t it be great if the Red Bulls lost because of a lack of energy?”

Finally, here is another bit of analysis from Greg Cote in the Miami Herald:

“The [Miami] Heat re-signed Dorell Wright, leaving fans to wonder if that was good news or not. Now the team is taking a look at free agent centers Jamaal Magloire and D.J. Mbenga, because all of the good centers are taken. Meantime, former Heat center Earl Barron signed a $2 million deal with Italy’s Fortitude Bologna, which evidently hadn’t heard he wasn’t any good.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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My long-suffering wife and I spent last weekend in San Diego. We caught up with several old friends who live in the area; it had been far too long since we had seen them. We were sorry to leave. I tell you that only to give you one of the common meanings of the word “sorry”, because today is Tuesday and that means I will proceed to chronicle here examples of another common meaning of the word “sorry”. Once again, it is time for “Tuesdays With The Sorries” …

Normally, when a team loses to an opponent ranked #5 in the nation, that loss would not trigger a mention here. However, Texas Tech was supposed to be the #2 team in the nation last week; so even if they were playing an away game, one might expect them to have made a game of it. Not so. I noticed exactly no phase of the game in which Texas Tech was even marginally close to Oklahoma on Saturday. The Sooners game them a solid butt-stomping. Sorry…

Michigan State also traveled last weekend. They had a shot at the Rose Bowl if they had won the game; they had only lost twice all year long. They were dissected by Penn State to the tune of 49-18 - - but do not let the score fool you. With about ten minutes to play, the score was 49-7 when Michigan State chose to kick one of the more meaningless field goals in the history of football. Then Penn State took out all of their starters and Michigan State got another TD. That score looks like a rout; the game should not have been that close. Sorry…

[Aside: Michigan State played two big games against Big Ten opponents this season. They lost both of them - - to Penn State and to Ohio State. Combined score in those two games was 94-25. Sorry…]

LSU was supposed to be a Top 10 team at one point this year. Last week they lost to Ole Miss at home in Baton Rouge by 18 points. Ole Miss is a team on the rise; its record is 7-4 - - same as LSU’s record - - but still, losing at home by three scores? Sorry…

North Carolina also lost at home last week to a North Carolina State team that is mediocre at best. The Tar Heels lost by 31 points. Sorry…

Maryland had inched its way into the Top 25 as of last week and played at home against Florida State. People were saying it was time to “Fear the Turtle” once again. Final score: Florida State 35 – Maryland 3. Sorry…

Wisconsin won in overtime by a point and gets a prominent mention here in “Tuesdays With The Sorries” because that win came at home against Division 1-AA Cal Poly/SLO. Wisconsin should be ashamed to have scheduled that game; they should pretend it never happened because someone might look to see how embarrassingly close it was. Sorry…

Perhaps the sorriest NCAA performance of the weekend came from Notre Dame playing at home against Syracuse. The Orangemen have been miserable this year and their coach is already fired. No matter; they beat Notre Dame in South Bend 24-23. The winning TD pass came from Cameron Dantley who is the son of Adrian Dantley who was a basketball star at Notre Dame. Sorry…

However, I think the ultimate sorry NCAA football performance of the weekend came from Minnesota. The Gophers had inflated their record against the halt and the lame early in the year and once held a 7-1 record. After last week’s disembowelment at Iowa by a score of 55-0, Minnesota’s record is 7-5. They will go to a bowl game; can you wait to find out so you can circle that date on your calendar? Me neither. Sorry…

In the NFL, the St. Louis Rams lost 27-3. They gave up 201 yards rushing to the Bears and were never really in the game. Coach Jim Haslett denied that the Rams had not quit in the game but did say the team was terrible in terms of play-execution, ball-security and tackling. I guess that is better than quitting, no? Sorry…

The Jacksonville Jaguars are done for the year. To be sure, their playoff chances were dim indeed going into Sunday’s home game against the Vikings. On Sunday, Minnesota led 14-0 with 13 minutes left to play in the first quarter and things did not get a whole lot better after that. Sorry…

The Cleveland Browns lost at home managing to score a total of 6 points. Making it worse, they lost to the Texans who never win on the road. Brady Quinn amassed 94 yards passing while throwing 2 INTs. Derek Anderson replaced him and generated 51 yards passing whilst throwing yet another INT. Sorry…

The Denver Broncos lost at home managing to score a total of 10 points. Making it worse, they lost to the Oakland Raiders who are a miserable squad when they are at their best. With five minutes to play, the score was 10-10. Then the Broncos gave up three TDs to a team that had appeared to give up touchdowns for Lent. Sorry…

[Aside: Denver managed to maintain its two game lead in the AFC Worst when the Chargers lost at home to the Colts in the final seconds of the game on a 51-yard field goal. The Chargers had scored 10 points in the final 5 minutes to tie the game but managed to lose anyway. The Chargers are 4-7 now and have only the hope that Denver will implode in the final five games. So much for pre-season Super Bowl participants. Sorry…]

Notwithstanding any of the above, the absolute sorriest performance of the NFL weekend has to belong to the Philadelphia Eagles. Their season was over last week when they managed to hold onto a tie with the sorry-assed Cincinnati Bengals but just to put a point on it, they came back and wet their pants this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Donovan McNabb was pulled at halftime after another bleak performance this week. His replacement, Kevin Kolb, did no better. Kolb was 10-23 for 73 yards and 2 INTs generating a passer rating of 15.3. The Eagles only score was on a kickoff return; the Ravens’ scores included an interception return and a safety in addition to garden-variety field goals and offensive touchdowns. Sorry…

Finally, here is a comment related to instant replay from Greg Cote in the Miami Herald:

“The NBA will have instant replay this season for certain plays and situations. I’m OK with that. As long as they don’t have NFL-styled black curtains that make it look like the referee is watching porn.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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The Linfield College Wildcats completed their season last weekend with a 45-0 win against Pacific Lutheran University. The Linfield defense recorded nine sacks in this shellacking. Linfield’s final season record is 6-3; their conference record is 5-1. Congratulations to Linfield for their 53rd consecutive winning season in football.

Here are some highlights and lowlights from last week’s Mythical Picks:

“Georgia – 10 at Auburn (48): I do think that the Auburn defense is good enough to keep the Dawgs from piling up points so I like Auburn with the points at home here. Even more, I like this game UNDER.” Final score Georgia 17 Auburn 13 [Highlight!]

“South Carolina at Florida – 22.5 (49.5): This will be a good game and that line looks FAT to me.” Final Score Florida 56 So. Carolina 6 [Lowlight!]

“Purdue at Iowa – 18.5 (44): Make no mistake; Purdue is not a good team. However, Iowa just might suffer some deflation after their last minute win over Penn State last week and so that line looks fat to me.” Final score Iowa 22-17 [Highlight!]

Just to demonstrate how my Ouija Board was en fuego last week, consider this item:

“UAB at Tulane – 6 (54.5): This is a SHOE Tournament game; both teams were seeded this week in the putative SHOE Tournament. For that reason alone, I’ll have to make a pick here so give me UAB with the points. That is what my Ouija Board said to do…” [The Ouija Board works. UAB wins outright 41-24.]

Notwithstanding the insightful comments from last week, you would have to be pretty dumb to use any information here as the basis for making a wager on a college football game this week. If you did that, you would definitely qualify as the village idiot’s dumber brother.

General Comments:

Ball State is 11-0 now; they traveled to beat Central Michigan last night. I wanted to see Ball State in order to get a sense of their worthiness for a major bowl game so I set aside the time and watched all but about a half-dozen plays in that game. Here are my “findings”:

1. Ball State is a good team. They beat a good Central Michigan team last night. They finish their season at home next week against Western Michigan.

2. I will stipulate that they are the class of the MAC and that the MAC has had four wins against Big Ten teams this season.

3. If Ball State were put in a major bowl game – akin to Hawaii last year in the Sugar Bowl – they would suffer the same fate that Hawaii suffered last year at the hands of Georgia. Ball State is good - - but they are not that good.

4. There is a reason why ESPN puts MAC games on TV on Tuesday or Wednesday nights and not on Saturday afternoons. If you sit and watch one of those MAC games from start to finish, you will understand.

This is “Rivalry Weekend” as pronounced by ESPN. There are a whole bunch of traditional games on the schedule and some of them have meaning beyond the traditional rivalry. I plan to talk about some of them in the course of these picks. However, let us not get too carried away here because there are a few major rivalries that will not happen this weekend; there is no “exclusivity” that comes with ESPN’s designation of this as “Rivalry Weekend”. I will offer one example that will prove my point that other intense rivalry games happen outside this envelope:

Army … Navy.

This year, the Apple Cup game matches two atrocious teams. Washington is the only Division 1-A team without a win; Washington State has beaten a Division 1-AA team this year but has also shattered the PAC-10 record for points allowed in a season. [They have allowed 533 points heading into Saturday’s titanic struggle.] It has been 2 months since Washington has been within 20 points of an opponent. Other than their victory over Division 1-AA Portland State, Washington State has not been within 25 points of any opponent all season long.

Interestingly, both teams have scored a grand total of 139 points this year. Washington ranks 117th in the country in total offense; Washington State ranks 118th. Washington ranks 110th in the country in total defense; Washington State ranks 112th. The first Apple Cup game was played in 1900; since the end of WWII, it has been played every year. Two more games like this one and they just might let the apples rot on the tree rather than go through the agony and humiliation of such a game.

Washington coach, Ty Willingham, has already been fired; this is his final Apple Cup game. Washington State coach, Paul Wulff, is coaching in his first Apple Cup game. So, which of these two gentlemen is in the better situation? You make the call…

Before the season started, I suggested that UNC and Pitt were two teams poised to make significant improvements to their records this year. UNC is 7-3; their 3 losses have been by a total of 8 points; they have two rivalry games – but perfectly winnable games – ahead of them against NC State and Duke. Pitt is 7-2; they have three games left and all should be competitive ones. Both UNC and Pitt should play in decent bowl games this year.

Vanderbilt is bowl eligible. They beat Kentucky 31-24 last week. If invited to a bowl game, it will be the first time they have played in a bowl game since 1982. That is precisely the reason why one of the bowl committees ought to give them an invitation; you have to think the students and alums would “travel well” to see the first bowl game in 26 years, no?

At the beginning of the year, the forecasters told us that the ACC would be Clemson (ranked #10 in pre-season polls) and a herd of mediocrity. It looks as if they were half-right; there is a herd of mediocrity in the ACC - - but Clemson does not really even make it up to that level. I know that Clemson’s 5-5 record makes them look mediocre and that they have a real shot at bowl eligibility. Look just a bit more closely at that record and you will see that two of the wins came at the expense of The Citadel and South Carolina State. Those two games should never have been scheduled by a team pretending to be a Top 20 football program.

Speaking of shameful scheduling, Wisconsin hosts Cal Poly/SLO this weekend. I don’t want to go all Biblical on you here, but that is an abomination in the sight of the Lord. I would not be all that sorry to learn that the entire Wisconsin Athletic Department and everyone on the football staff came down with a roaring case of “New Delhi-belly” after this game.

With regard to that “herd of mediocrity” in the ACC, the best overall record in the conference is 7-3 (a record shared by 6 of the 12 schools). Meanwhile the worst overall record in the conference is 4-6 (shared by 2 of the 12 schools). ‘Nuff said…

I want to plant an image in your brain because it is in my brain and it keeps coming to the fore when I watch ESPN’s College Football Scoreboard. If I have to put up with it, then I’m going to share it:

1. Picture Estelle Getty from her role on the TV show, The Golden Girls.

2. Picture Alfred E. Neuman from the cover of Mad Magazine.

3. Imagine a tryst between Ms. Getty and Mr. Neuman from which issued a love-child.

4. Wouldn’t that love-child look and sound like Lou Holtz?

Now, try to get that out of your sub-conscious.

The Shoe Tournament

There is not much time left for teams to play their way out of the SHOE Tournament whereby they may be designated as this year’s SHOE (Steaming Heap Of Excrement) Team. Here is the seeding as of this week:

#1 North Texas

#2 San Diego State

#3 SMU

#4 Tulane

#5 Washington State

#6 Washington

#7 Idaho

#8 Eastern Michigan

Ponderosa Spread Games:

Last week there were six Ponderosa Spread Games and the favorites covered in only two of them.

Missouri and Utah covered.

Arizona State, Boise State, Penn State and USC did not cover.

The season record for favorites covering in Ponderosa Spread Games now stands at 42-27-3.

There is only 1 Ponderosa Spread Game on the whole NCAA menu for this weekend.

Tulane at Tulsa – 28.5 (73.5): Tulsa lost their second game in a row last weekend to Houston giving up 70 points. Tulane has given up 40+ points four times this year. At one point, Tulsa was ranked in the Top 25 and was averaging more than 50 points per game. Assuming that Tulsa wants to close out its season at home with a positive game, they should wax Tulane.

Games of Interest

Michigan at Ohio State – 21 (45): For this humongous rivalry game, the spread opened the week at an astonishing 19 points and it has climbed ever since. Somewhere in the cosmos, Bo Schembechler weeps. Ohio State can go to the rose Bowl if it wins here and Michigan State beats Penn State - - as if Ohio State needed another incentive to beat up on Michigan. Interestingly, Bo Schembechler, Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr all beat Ohio State the first time they played Ohio State. Spotlight on Rich Rodriguez please… Adrenaline or not, I think Ohio State wins this one big. I would never lay 21 points in a rivalry like this one and there is no way that Michigan would get a dime of my support. Do not bet this game.

Michigan State at Penn State – 14 (47.5): If Penn State wins here, the worst they can do is go to the Rose Bowl game – where they have not been for the last 14 years. If Michigan State wins here, they still have a shot at the Rose Bowl – where they have not been for the last 21 seasons – if and only if Michigan pulls off the huge upset against Ohio State. Javon Ringer is a quality running back and Penn State will have to contain him to win. Michigan State’s problem is that they do not have any top-shelf offensive weapons other than Ringer so teams can focus a lot of attention on him. I think Penn State wins this game on the basis of superior offensive and defensive lines. That is a lot of points to lay against an opponent with a 9-2 record, but I’d play Penn State here.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma – 6.5 (77): Clearly, the best game of the week. If you like trends, here’s one: Texas Tech has never beaten Texas and Oklahoma in the same season; they have already beaten Texas this year. This is not a longstanding rivalry game for either team, but it sure is a revenge game for OU. Last year, they were in the discussion with regard to the BCS Championship Game and then they went to Lubbock and lost to Texas Tech by a TD. Normally, Oklahoma has a top-shelf defense; not this year. To stop Texas Tech’s offense, you really do have to put some kind of pressure on Graham Harrell, but the very ordinary OU defensive line is up against an OL that has only yielded 5 sacks this year on 499 passing plays. The other way to stop the Texas Tech offense is to run the ball and keep them on the sidelines; OU can run the ball really well and Tech showed some vulnerability to power running in the Oklahoma State game. I like OU at home to win and cover and I like this game OVER.

Pitt at Cincinnati – 5.5 (49): Interestingly, the Steelers are also playing in Cincy this week. Is there cosmic significance? Probably not. Both teams aspire to – and can achieve – the Big East championship for this year and that title guarantees the champion participation in a BCS bowl game. I’d make this a venue call and take Cincy but with little conviction.

West Virginia – 7 at Louisville (46): Louisville needs another win for bowl-eligibility; they are on a three game losing streak. I think it continues here but I don’t like the spread. If I were going to play this game, I’d take it OVER.

Syracuse at Notre Dame – 20 (49): Greg Robinson is out at Syracuse at the end of the year; he has had little success at Syracuse in his four years there (9-36 overall; 3-25 in the Big East). If you look at their record and the fact that they are on the road, you would never consider taking Syracuse here, but Notre Dame is anything but a juggernaut. I fully expect Syracuse to lose, but that line looks fat to me.

UConn at USF – 3 (48.5): At one point, USF was ranked in the Top 10 back when they had a 5-0 record. Now they are 6-4 and all of their losses have been in conference. Now they may have to play without starting QB, Matt Grothe, due to an ankle/foot injury. I do not know why they are favored here. I like UConn with the points.

Florida State – 1 at Maryland (46.5): Here are two of those ACC teams in the “herd of mediocrity”. They are both 7-3 overall and this game probably has ACC title implications for those who actually care about that. I like this game UNDER.

NC State at UNC – 11 (46): Here are two more of those ACC teams in the “herd of mediocrity”. State has won two in a row; UNC lost a close game to Maryland last week. I think this will be a low scoring game so I’d play it UNDER and take State with the points if I wanted to bet on a game between two mediocre teams.

Clemson -3 at UVa (42): You want mediocrity? Both of these teams are 5-5. One will be bowl-eligible sometime in the late afternoon on Saturday. Be still my heart… Do not bet on this game!

Oregon State – 3 at Arizona (57): Since I expect Penn State to win this weekend, I have to root against Oregon State because if Oregon State wins out, it will play Penn State again in the Rose Bowl. The first game between these two teams - - in Happy Valley to be sure - - was a rout. I do not want to see a rematch. Go Wildcats!

Stanford at Cal – 9 (53): Big rivalry game here. Stanford is 5-6 for the year and needs this game to be bowl-eligible. Cal already has the requisite 6 wins for bowl eligibility, but they have lost their last two games. Neither team scares you on offense so this might be a game to take UNDER.

Boise State – 6 at Nevada (62): Boise State is undefeated. If they want in on the BCS goodies this year, they need to win here and then to see if BYU can beat Utah later on Saturday. If not, they could well be undefeated and on the outside looking in. That gives them motivation so I’d take them and lay the points - - even on the road.

BYU at Utah – 7 (53.5): Big rivalry game here. Utah will go to a BCS bowl game with a win; BYU has that loss to TCU on its record so the only thing it can hope to do here is to spoil Utah’s season. Last week, Utah converted 13 of 14 third-down chances against San Diego State; surely, BYU’s defense will do better this week. Nonetheless, I think there will be more points than the total line in this game; I’d play it OVER.

Washington – 7 at Washington State (49): Big rivalry game here. Two SHOE Tournament teams here. The combined ineptitude is chronicled above; based on the data available, this game could easily project to a final score of 55-49 - - or it could be 6-3 in triple overtime. Washington State has allowed a staggeringly awful 6.3 yards per carry and 266 yards per game on the ground this year; that is why Washington will win the Apple Cup this year. Moreover, Washington will cover the spread in the process.

The participants in the Apple Cup Game this year might want to ponder these words from Antoine de Saint-Exupery:

“Commonly, people believe that defeat is characterized by a general bustle and a feverish rush. Bustle and rush are the signs of victory, not of defeat. Victory is a thing of action. It is a house in the act of being built. Every participant in victory sweats and puffs, carrying the stones for the building of the house. But defeat is a thing of weariness, of incoherence, of boredom. And above all of futility.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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The last couple of times I did Mythical Picks, I sort of whined about breaking even for the week and how boring that was. Last week should have been so good. Last week’s picks simply stunk and I am now sub-.500 for both kinds of picks. Am I going to go and sit in a corner and channel Jack Horner? No way! I choose to channel Alexander Pope and to believe that:

“Hope springs eternal in the human breast …”

The OVER/UNDER picks were 2-5 last week. That brings the season record for Total wagers to 28-35-2. Double Yuck!

The Against the Spread picks were 4-7 last week. That brings the season record for ATS wagers to 49-51-2. Merely a Single Yuck!

Given the way these picks have been going recently, I can’t believe anyone would be stupid enough to use any information here as even a small element of their thinking should they choose to make a wager on an NFL game. Such a person would be monumentally stupid - - so stupid in fact, that he/she must be a reincarnated being because no one could possibly amass that much stupidity in a single lifetime.

General Comments:

There are some Eagles’ fans calling for Andy Reid’s head and for Donovan McNabb to be ushered out of town. The fans’ relationship with both Reid and McNabb has been testy for a couple of years now but last week’s lackluster tie game with the Bengals plus McNabb’s revelation that he did not know that NFL games could end in a tie brought this kettle to a boil. It is difficult to reason with someone while he/she is thinking with his/her glands instead of his/her brain, but let me try.

Since 2000, Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles have won more games than any other franchise in the NFC. Go look it up. True, they have no Super Bowl Championships to show for that, but they have not been carrion for all of that time. I understand that their lack of Super Bowl rings makes this analogy a tad imperfect, but please consider the fate of the Chicago Bulls when the front office there decided that Tim Floyd could be plugged in for Phil Jackson and that Michael Jordan could be replaced by “the system”. The Bulls have not been relevant since then.

Memo to Eagles’ Fans: Be careful what you wish for…

As a rule of thumb, teams need to win 10 games to get into the playoffs. I know that there have been teams that won 11 games in a season and have not made it; I know that 10 wins do not the playoffs make. Nonetheless, that is a reasonable target for a team to make them relevant down to the last week of the season. Five teams – the Titans, Giants, Cards, Panthers and Bucs – are shooting for that goal in an effective way. All five of those teams are undefeated at home.

There is no mystery that it is harder for an NFL team to win on the road than it is to win at home. Road teams this year are 62-95-1; they only win 40% of the time. Therefore, teams that dominate at home have more margin for error in their road records as they point toward the coveted 10 wins. In the extreme, a perfect home record would allow a team to have a really sub-standard road record of 2-6 to get to 10 wins.

For the record, there are seven teams that have only lost once at home so far this year – the Jets, Ravens, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings, Falcons and Saints.

If you look carefully at the two lists of teams who are playing extremely well at home, you will notice that teams should not want to have to go to visit any of the teams in the NFC South. Those four teams are a combined 19-2 at home; none of the four has lost more than a single game at home. Impressive.

There are lots of surprise teams and turnaround stories this season in the NFL and the Atlanta Falcons are one of them. This team was in shambles during and at the end of last season and they have made themselves into an amazing turnaround story. Here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to look at the things that the Falcons threw away in order to make themselves into a winning team instead of who came in to make things different. From that perspective, the Falcons rid themselves of Michael Vick – actually, a judge in a courtroom did that for them – and Bobby Petrino, a man whose coaching system made no impact at all at the NFL level. Additionally, the Falcons cleared their locker room of two “3Ms” – Mouthy, Malcontented Me-first players – Joe Horn and DeAngelo Hall. They even managed to get a second round draft pick for Hall from the Raiders, who also ditched Hall halfway through this season. The Atlanta Falcons shed a lot of dead weight in the off-season…

The Denver Broncos lead the AFC West by 2 full games with a record of only 6-4 and with a poor defense that has been riddled with lots of injuries to its best players. The Broncos have been outscored in their ten games by a total of 23 points; and in their last five wins, the cumulative margin of victory is a measly 14 points. That should tell you something about the three other teams in the AFC West…

The Oakland Raiders have not scored an offensive TD in the last 13 quarters of football they have played. The good news for the Raiders last week was that they scored more than twice their average over the previous 5 games. The bad news is that they only scored 15 points last week and lost again. Since Lane Kiffin was granted his reprieve in Oakland and Tom Cable took the reins six games ago, the Raiders have scored 2 offensive TDs. Last week they had 11 third-down situations and converted 2 of them. [In their last 4 games, they are 7-50 on third down conversions.] Against Miami last week, the OL surrendered 6 sacks.

The only reason that the Raiders are not held up to national ridicule is that the Detroit Lions preternatural ineptitude provides cover for the Raiders. The Raiders are a horrid football team.

Speaking of the Lions, they will be part of a Thanksgiving Day triple-header that may involve the worst trio of games in the history of the NFL’s Thanksgiving offerings.

Early in the day, the Lions host the Tennessee Titans. Assuming the Titans take care of business this week and win their game at home against the Jets and assuming that the Lions take care of business this week and fold like a lawn chair at home against the Bucs, you can call the Thanksgiving game the Bagel Bowl. Tennessee will be 11-0; Detroit will be 0-11. How swell…

Later that afternoon, the Seahawks visit the Cowboys. Other than the continuing story lines within the soap opera that is the Dallas Cowboys, that game is about as exciting as a broccoli and tofu pizza.

Then, after a big meal of turkey and with all that l-tryptophan kicking in, people will try to stay awake to watch the Arizona Cardinals play the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cardinals can actually have the NFC West clinched by kickoff time; the Eagles’ drive to the playoffs took an exit ramp last week in Cincinnati. Staying awake until the third quarter of that game should qualify one as a football fanatic for life.

Do I hear anyone continuing to call for Jim Haslett to be the permanent coach of the St. Louis Rams anymore? Does anyone want him to be the coach of his or her favorite NFL team? [Philly fans: Would you trade Andy Reid for him? He will be available…] In their last four games, the Rams have been outscored 139-48. Not surprisingly, they lost all four of those games. The Rams were 3-13 last year and they need another win this year to match that level of incompetence. They still have home games against Seattle and San Francisco in December, so not all is lost for the Rams…

Last week, the Niners scored 5 consecutive times they touched the ball against the Rams. Like the Raiders, the Rams are maneuvering through the 2008 season under the cover of the Detroit Lions’ preternatural ineptitude.

The Games

Philly at Baltimore – 1 (39.5): If you take the Eagles here, the only way that point helps you is if the game ends in a tie. Now that Donovan McNabb realizes that is a possibility, maybe it can happen two weeks in a row. NOT! The Eagles rushing attack is anemic this year; the Ravens will shut it down. You would think that the Eagles’ defense might confuse rookie Joe Flacco, but remember that Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh was on the Eagles’ defensive staff prior to taking the job in Baltimore. The Ravens are home after three straight road games and their only home loss this year was to Tennessee. I like the Ravens here to win and cover.

Houston at Cleveland – 3 (50.5): Houston is 0-5 on the road. Cleveland is 1-4 at home. Someone has to win here, right? No, you can have a tie in an NFL game. [/Donovan McNabb] Houston’s pass defense is vulnerable so Brady Quinn may have a chance to have a decent game statistically for a change. The Browns’ run defense was exposed once again on Monday night giving up 186 yards to the Bills. Even with the Texans’ current – and historic – problems on the road, I’ll take the Texans with the points here.

SF at Dallas – 10 (46.5): The Niners are playing much harder for Mike Singletary than they did for Mike Nolan; nevertheless, they have only won once on the road this year. Dallas actually looked as if they gave a damn against the Redskins last Sunday night; if the Cowboys play with the same degree of energy this week as they did last week, they should bury the Niners. The Cowboys stuffed Clinton Portis last week so – with similar effort – they should be able to stuff Frank Gore this week, no? I’m guessing the Cowboys’ focus will extend one more week and so I’ll take them to win and cover here.

Tampa Bay – 9 at Detroit (42): The Bucs are only 2-3 on the road. Of course, the Lions are 0-10 on Planet Earth so that would seem to trump the Bucs’ road problems. Bucs’ RB, Earnest Graham, is out for the rest of the year but others should be able to run against a porous Lions’ defense. Usually in low-scoring games, I want to take the points, but I do not see the Lions scoring very much against a tough Tampa defense. I am flipping a coin and it says to take the game UNDER.

Minnesota at Jax – 2.5 (40.5): Minnesota is tied for first in the NFC North. Jax pretty much watched their season disappear into the sink trap last week. That line sort of tells you what the betting public thinks of Minnesota as a “first place team”. The Jags are a mess. They have had off-field issues with their players; they demoted their defensive captain to special teams after an altercation between the player and the head coach in a team meeting. The Jags spent a lot of money to sign Jerry Porter to play WR; Porter has caught a total of 7 passes all year long. The Vikings are 1-4 on the road this year; the Jags are 1-4 at home this year; the team that makes the last mistake loses here. I’ll take Jax to win and cover - - only because I promised to make a pick in every game.

Buffalo – 3 at KC (44): The Chiefs have played much better the last three weeks. The Bills have now lost 4 games in a row. Trent Edwards threw 3 INTs in the first quarter against Cleveland on Monday night but the Bills’ defense kept the game within reach. The Bills’ season will be ruined with a loss here; I think they will play a lot better than they did Monday against a lesser opponent than they had on Monday. I’ll take the Bills to win and cover on the road. I also like this game UNDER.

New England at Miami – 1.5 (42): If I had told you in August that Miami would beat the Pats in Foxboro this year and then be favored when the Pats came to visit Miami in November, you would have asked to share what I was smoking at the time. I know that Tony Sparano will be on the sidelines with the Dolphins, but this is a Parcells/Belichick confrontation at its core. Matt Cassell had 400+ yards passing and 3 TDs last week; he will not do that this week. The Dolphins surprised the Pats with the Wildcat Formation in their first meeting; they will not do that this week. I like this game OVER.

Chicago – 9 at St. Louis (43): The Bears are inconsistent; the Rams stink. The Bears have lost 2 in a row; the Rams have lost 4 in a row. Last week, the Bears lost by 34 points; this week they are 9-point favorites. Does that give you a hint as to how bad the Rams really are? Matt Forte should run wild against what pretends to be a Rams’ defense; Marc Bulger should have plenty of time to pick out receivers against a vulnerable Bears’ pass defense. Do not bet this game. I am flipping a coin here and it says to take the game OVER.

Jets at Tennessee – 5 (41): This is either the best game of the week or the second best game of the week. Both teams lead their divisions but the Jets’ lead is only one game and the two teams chasing them (Pats and Dolphins) play each other so one of them is going to win on Sunday. The Jets are 6-1 in their last 7 games; that’s impressive. Their single loss in that stretch was to the Raiders; that’s unimpressive. For mythical purposes only, I like this game UNDER and I’ll take the Jets with the points.

Oakland at Denver – 10 (42.5): The total line here is a clear statement about the ineptitude of the Raiders’ offense. The Broncos give up an average of 27 points a game; if they do that and win by 10 points as the spread line suggests they should, then the total for the game would be 64. In the season opener, Mike Shanahan ran it up to 41-14 against his former tormentor, Al Davis; he will do it again if he has the chance. If the Raiders’ offense cannot score against this defense, you would have to label the offensive unit as “without hope”. I’ll take this game OVER.

Carolina at Atlanta – 1 (42.5): This will be a good game. A Falcons’ win – along with a likely Bucs’ win in Detroit – would really tighten up the NFC South race. I think the difference here is the Panthers’ superior defense. I’ll take the Panthers with the point.

Giants – 3 at Arizona (48.5): This is either the best game of the week or the second best game of the week. Both teams lead their divisions comfortably. In fact, the Cards might have to play the rest of their games with all of their players carrying refrigerators on their backs to lose the NFC West. The Giants have scored more points than any team in the NFL so far; the Cards have scored one field goal less than the Giants. Last week, the Giants held the Ravens to 165 yards passing; they will not do that again this week. Last week, the Cardinals held the Seahawks’ RB, Julius Jones to less than 2 yards per carry; they will not do that again this week. I like the Giants to win and cover here and I like this game UNDER.

Washington – 3 at Seattle (40): This is one of those teacher/pupil games as Mike Holmgren and Jim Zorn face each other for the first time. It is also the Mother of all Trap Games for the Skins - - Dallas at home last week and the Giants at home next week. Washington has visited Seattle twice in recent years and came away empty both times. Not this time… Seattle gave up almost 400 yards passing last week; Jason Campbell is not Kurt Warner, but he should have a good day. I like the Skins to win and cover here and I like the game OVER. If you like Seattle, shop the line because you can find it at 4 points at some of the sportsbooks.

Indy – 3 at San Diego (49): The line for this game is all over the place; you can find it as low as 1 point or as high as 3 points. The total line also varies from 49 points to 50.5. I have no idea why… Has the change in defensive coordinators revived the Chargers’ defense or did they hold Pittsburgh to 11 points because Pittsburgh’s offense is not hitting on all cylinders? We will find out this week. I think the Chargers have to realize that any more losses this season takes them out of the wild card race and demands that they win the AFC West to get into the playoffs. In essence, their playoffs begin here. I’ll take the Chargers at home with the points.

Green Bay at New Orleans – 2.5 (51): Here is another game where the line is all over the place. It too ranges from 1 point to 2.5 points and the total number ranges from 51 to 53. I have no idea why… Green Bay is in a tie for its division lead and is not in great shape for a wild card slot; they need to win the NFC North to get in the playoffs. New Orleans is last in the NFC South and needs to go 5-1 for the rest of the season to be in the discussion when it comes to the playoffs in January. It is usually hyperbole to call a November game a “playoff game”; but in this case, it might just be true. I smell points aplenty here so I’ll take the game OVER.

Good luck

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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It has been a few days since the news broke that Mark Cuban is the defendant in a civil law suit filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission alleging that he profited from insider trading. For the record, please note:

1. This is a civil suit. To date there have been no criminal charges filed – let alone proven.

2. Mark Cuban protests his innocence and no verdict has been rendered in the civil suit.

Many folks have written/said that these charges are sufficient ammunition to keep Cuban out of the MLB Ownership Coterie. Perhaps it is. But here in Curmudgeon Central – where there is a sign on the wall reading, “Schadenfreude R Us” – there is a parallel question. To pose that question, I need to reset a story.

Back when Kobe Bryant had his unfortunate Colorado encounter with that young hotel employee, Mark Cuban proclaimed that the news of Bryant’s charges and his trial would be good for the NBA. Cuban said that l’affaire Bryant got people talking abut the NBA including people who normally didn’t care about the NBA - - and that kind of coverage was always good. At the time, I asked Mark Cuban - via e-mail – if he thought the folks who ran the Archdiocese of Boston might agree with his assessment. I never got an answer to that query.

So, now it seems perfectly appropriate to ask a parallel question:

Will this publicity – regardless of the outcome of the legal aspects of the matter – help or hinder Mark Cuban’s chances to buy the Chicago Cubs?

For the record, I am not expecting to get an answer from him on that one either…

Since I mentioned the Chicago Cubs, recall that they went through the 2008 season with the best record in the National League and then lost by a sweep in the first round of the NL playoffs - - for the second year in a row. That raises the question whether the Cubs remain jinxed loveable losers or just plain garden-variety chokers. You make the call…

Ryan Dempster started the opening game of the playoffs this year for the Cubs. When they exited the playoffs, his contract was up and he was a free agent. Earlier this week, he signed a 4-year deal with the Cubs for $52M which would seem to indicate that the Cubs are happy to invest at the rate of at least $850K per win because 60 wins over a four year span for Dempster is about the best one might expect. Whatever. It’s their money until someone else buys them at which point it will be someone else’s money.

Naturally, there was a press event to celebrate the signing of the deal and somehow Ryan Dempster managed to say the following to someone from the Chicago Tribune:

“Maybe we underestimated how prepared you have to be, how ready you have to be, especially in a five-game series. It’s like a short heavyweight bout. Ding, the bell is ringing, you’ve got to go … Maybe L.A. was just a little more prepared for us than we were for them.”

Earth to Ryan Dempster! You were in the playoffs in 2007 too. You lost three straight games in 2007 too. You didn’t learn anything from that? You didn’t realize you had to be prepared to play your opponent right away in the playoffs? And now, you are taking down a $52M guaranteed contract? How can this story end well?

Meanwhile, Greg Cote of the Miami Herald summed up the Cubs’ recent acquisition of Marlins’ relief pitcher Kevin Gregg in the following way:

“Newly departed closer Kevin Gregg had planned on saving memorabilia from his Marlins days, but unfortunately he blew the save.”

The Seattle Mariners have a new leadership team as the franchise looks to ascend from the depths of the American League standings. The new GM is Jack Zduriencik; the new field manager is Don Wakamatsu. Perhaps these guys are great baseball minds and the world will see that over the next couple of seasons - - or maybe the ownership of the Mariners has some kind of vendetta going with headline writers working for the Seattle newspapers.

Quick Quiz. No Googling allowed:

Right now, which is the most dysfunctional franchise and why:

A. NY Knicks
B. LA Clippers
C. Oakland Raiders
D. Detroit Lions

500 words or less…

It is time for both Travis Henry and Shawn Kemp to move along; we have a new leader in the clubhouse. Jason Caffey a former power forward for the Chicago Bulls, Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks has fathered ten children with eight different women and has fallen behind in payments to the children/mothers because he can no longer meet all the child support obligations. This info comes from his bankruptcy filing. Looking strictly at the economics of this matter, I think the use of condoms by this man would have been a more prudent course of action.

Finally, since I mentioned l’affaire Bryant above, here is an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“One of the world’s largest diamonds — weighing nearly 500 carats — has been unearthed in a Lesothan mine, Reuters reported. Gemologists predict it’s destined for a museum or the finger of Kobe Bryant’s wife, Vanessa.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

Comments(5)

There are lots of stories out there about NFL franchises “thinking about moving” as a ploy to get public money injected into a new stadium project. A list of teams that may be “on the move” will always include:

The Vikings and the Chargers where new stadium negotiations have been protracted and barren

The Bills where 8 “home games” are already diverted to Toronto and

The Saints where the combination of Katrina devastation and economic downturn could make New Orleans unable to support an NFL franchise.

That is all posturing and posing; the team I think most likely to move from its current home is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here is a brief history of that franchise:

Expansion franchise awarded in 1995 - - along with Carolina.

Jags won right away; they lost the AFC Conference Championship Game in 1996.

Team did not sustain that level of success and team lost attendance dramatically in the late 1990s.

Several years ago, the Jags put a tarp over and cordoned off almost 10,000 seats in the upper level of their stadium because they could not give those tickets away. That reduced the stadium capacity from just under 75,000 to 65,000. They still do not sell out all of their home games; I believe they missed a capacity crowd in three of their eight home games last year - - and they were a playoff caliber team last year.

Last week, the Jags hosted the undefeated Tennessee Titans – a division rival. In the middle of last week, the local media made it a point to report that the game would be televised in Jax because the Jaguars had indeed sold all the tickets for that game. The simple fact that this is a news story tells me that the Jags’ franchise is on a foundation of sand in Jacksonville. This was a division rival seeking to continue an undefeated season and the fact of a “sell-out” was newsworthy. Wow!

The Jags lost the game; they are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs; but unless they manage to secure the intercession of St. Jude, the players will be at home in January 2009. It will be interesting to see what the crowds are like for the three remaining home games - - this week against the Vikings, Dec 14 against the Packers and Dec 18 against the Colts on a Thursday night.

Elsewhere, reports link Jim Fassel to the Oakland Raiders. Supposedly, he sent a hand-written letter to Al Davis saying that he (Fassel) would be interested in becoming the coach of the Raiders. If you have never quite understood the concept of “an act of desperation”, think of Jim Fassel sitting down at his desk to pen that letter and then to put said letter in an envelope in order to mail it to Al Davis. You’ve heard of the elephants’ graveyard; the mystery about that place is that no one knows where it is. There is no mystery about the coaches’ graveyard; it is in Oakland.

NFL Commish, Roger Goodell, has met with the players who tested positive for a banned substance that somehow got into a new formulation of a diuretic. It is possible that four-game suspensions could come down from all of this. If so, the Minnesota Vikings will be in deep yogurt. Both of their defensive tackles, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, could face suspension and the Vikes’ defense is predicated on those two guys making inside running a dicey proposition for opposing teams. If they are out at the same time, the only advantage the Vides’ defense will enjoy is that opposing offenses will have no idea what they will try to do next because they have never seen the Vikes play without both of these guys in the lineup.

At the same time, Vikes’ defensive end, Jared Allen, is meeting with the Commish about a series of questionable hits that Allen has put on QBs in recent weeks. Theoretically, Allen could face fines and ultimately a suspension for such behaviors. Were the Vikes to have to play without both DTs and Jared Allen in the same game, the Lions have to be rooting for that to be their game against the Vikes on 7 December.

Regarding those players – there are eight of them – who tested positive for the banned substance, which may be a masking agent for steroids, can someone explain to me why there is not clamor in Congress for hearings and investigations? I promise you if eight MLB players tested positive for anything more controversial than chocolate you would have a half-dozen of the professional grandstanders on Capitol Hill in full throat about the need for hearings and oversight and fact-finding. Senator Specter, come on down! Interesting…

Since the fiasco of the last play of the Chargers/Steelers game last weekend which did not affect the game outcome but did affect the outcome of the game against the spread, some have advocated a rule change allowing referees to go back to replay more than once to “get it right”. I will have more to say about that when I do my next essay on ways to improve the NFL, but based on a comment from Chris Erskine in the LA Times, my guess is that he will not be in favor of a second look at replay:

“I was married once. No replays. I watched the births of my children just once. No replays. So I sure don’t need to see a routine catch half a dozen times. Or all those cut-ins from other games. Like those 64-ounce sodas and Dolly Parton’s ample front porch, instant replay is threatening to be too much of a very good thing.”

The phrase “too much of a very good thing” is particularly apt at the time when college basketball teams are beginning their seasons. I love college basketball; it would take a comatose state in an ICU somewhere for me to miss any of the NCAA Tournament games. Having said that, college basketball is horribly over-exposed on TV. Consider that ACC teams by themselves will be on TV 273 times this year. That is correct; a single conference will be on TV more than 250 times this year, and this is not the first year that has happened.

Obviously, I have not counted nor do I intend to, but I would be willing to wager that of those 273 ACC appearances on TV, UNC and Duke will be part of at least half of them. One-sixth of the conference will probably account for about 60% of the teams on TV. Too much of a very good thing…

Finally, Bob Knight had these words regarding coaches who cheat in college basketball:

“In college basketball, if you get caught cheating, they should shoot you because you’re too dumb to be alive.”

Here’s an idea:

Make the cheaters go bird hunting with Bob Knight and Dick Cheney. That should provide a deterrent…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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The “economic downturn” has allowed people to ask impertinent questions as a way to take their minds off the potential doom scenarios such as:

Who had a worse year in 2008, “Pacman” Jones or Dow Jones?

Do you still have a 301(k) or is it a 201(k)?

Nevertheless, the impact of the “economic downturn” is very real when it comes to sports and it may not be funny at all. For the last couple of months, I have tried to point out here and there how reduced discretionary income in the hands of fans and/or reduced resources in the hands of local governments and big-time sponsors might impact the world of sports. Rather than put such comments into piecemeal rants, I thought it might make sense to assemble them into a single essay - - and hope that I can make it coherent.

Sports franchises may not want to sound alarmist and scare off the buying public, but many of them realize that things have changed significantly - - and not for the better - - in the last year. Take the New Jersey Nets for example. Two years ago, it would never have occurred to them to use “unemployment” as a promotional gimmick but they are doing that now. Nets’ fans can send their résumés in and get free tickets to one of five home games. The Nets will then forward those résumés to their “corporate partners” in an attempt to find new jobs for those people. There is a limit of 500 such tickets for each of the five games. Folks, that is not an altruistic step taken by the Nets; they know that increasing unemployment endangers their ability to sell lots of those high priced tickets to their games. They know that unemployment is rising and looks to continue to rise over the next six to twelve months. So, they are “investing” the cost of 2500 seats they probably will not sell anyway as a way to help their fans stay employed and as a way to appear to be concerned and proactive on this matter.

In a much larger sense, the Nets have to worry significantly about their grand plan to move the franchise to Brooklyn and into a new arena that will be surrounded by new housing and commercial development projects. That involves getting credit extensions to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars at any given time and total credit into the billions. Given the glut of housing on the market now, it might not be easy for housing/condo developers there to get their hands on that kind of cash.

The NHL St. Louis Blues are using the specter of mortgage default as a promotional item - - what fun! When the Blues play a Saturday night home game – next one is November 29 if you want to circle that on your calendar – the team will hold a drawing and call out a seat number during the game. The fan with that ticket will get mortgage payments or rent payments up to $4000 for the next four months. Do you think they even considered doing something like that a year ago?

In MLB, the Boston Red Sox announced a price freeze on all tickets for 2009. I would be willing to bet that when the Sox did their five-year financial projections in 2005, 2006 and 2007, that they had programmed in a ticket price increase for 2009.

The Olympics have always been a money sink for the cities/countries that host the games. The 2010 games are in Vancouver, British Columbia and they are running into “financial issues”. A professor at the University of British Columbia explained the cost situation there very succinctly:

“We’re looking at a very real potential here for some levels of government to pony up more money. The alternative would be an Olympic tent city.”

If the world economy does not turn around significantly between now and the winter of 2010, you can be sure that whatever projections the Canadians had for attendance and expenditures by attendees will not be met.

Meanwhile the folks in London who rejoiced at getting the 2012 Summer Games are looking at a financial black hole. Original cost estimates were in the range of $6-7B; current estimates are in the range of $20-22B. Originally, the organizing committee and governmental overseers planned on getting $2B in private funds for sponsorships and the like. Now it seems as if they may not be able to get $1B from the private sector. That led the British Olympic Minister to say:

“We have lost half a billion pounds of private investment. But that does not mean it won’t come back. We have to be optimistic about the coming years and that there will be deals to be done. We will go back to the banks when borrowing terms are more favourable.”

For the full article on the London Olympics financial “situation”, check this out:

In a related Olympic development, Sports Business Journal reported that Johnson and Johnson decided not to extend its major Olympic sponsorship through to the 2012 Games. J&J explained this decision by saying that the decision was ‘’in part because of the economy and the expiration of key patents that J&J faces in the coming years.” I wonder which of those two factors is more important here. Let me see… Johnson and Johnson signed on with the Olympics as a top-shelf sponsor right after the conclusion of the 2004 Games. At the time, they knew when those “key patents” would expire and they looked forward to a growing if not necessarily exploding economy. Now about 42 months later, they still know about the expiring patents and they see the economy tanking. Hmmm…

In light of all this great news, maybe someone might be able to explain why the mayor of Chicago remains focused like a laser on getting the 2016 Olympic Games for the City of Chicago…

I can imagine someone saying to themselves that all of these things deal with second-tier things in professional sports or second-tier sports. After all, problems here or in NASCAR or the NHL or in horseracing are to be expected in troubled times. But what about the “gold standard” of US sports; what about the NFL? Glad you asked…

It is one thing for the New Jersey Nets to have difficulty getting huge credit loans these days for a new playpen. But surely, the Dallas Cowboys – America’s Team – would have no such difficulty, right? Well, we shall see about that. Like the Nets, the Cowboys are building a new playpen and they are reportedly in search of a $350M loan sometime between now and 1 December, which the Cowboys need to refinance a $150M loan that has come due plus other funds to cover over-runs on the new stadium. Not to get too technical here, but the Cowboys were to fund about 40% of the cost of the new stadium; and to get that money, they went into the auction rate securities market. That was a great idea two years ago; but in the current market, that has made their interest payments soar and they really do need to pay off that $150M in auction rate notes. As of today, I have not read anything to indicate that the Cowboys have received the loan that they need from a bank or an investment company… Stay tuned.

Even the NFL Front Office sees that things are not well and sees that the league needs to be seen as recognizing that fact. This week, the NFL announced that the average price of a playoff ticket for this year will be 10% lower than prices last year. In addition, the NFL will allow teams to charge less for the wild-card games than they will charge for the divisional playoff round games; that was verboten last year.

More importantly, tickets for the Super Bowl, which cost $800 last year, will only cost $500 this year. That is the first time in history that Super Bowl ticket prices have gone down.

The advertising revenues for the Super Bowl telecast present a mixed picture. NBC has the game this year and has been charging $3M for a 30-second spot. About a month ago, NBC said that 90% of that time had already been sold so any price reductions would only seem to apply to the remaining 10% of their inventory. However, major sponsors such as General Motors are going to pass entirely on ads during the game. [Of course, GM may be in Chapter 11 bankruptcy by February so that may not be such a big loss.] However, viable companies such as FedEx have not committed to Super Bowl advertising as of yet. Reports are that the company fears a backlash if they appear to be spending lavishly on advertising here while laying off workers and asking others to take pay cuts or furloughs.

The NFL is the 800-lb gorilla of US sports and the Super Bowl is the capo di tutti cappi of NFL events. That game is 10 weeks away; sponsors have not yet decided if they will participate or not; that is not the way it has always been.

Folks, the economic problems facing the US and the rest of the developed world are real and they are serious. Professional sports here grew to a point where the financial superstructure in terms of lavish facilities and huge guaranteed contracts were supported only on the condition that there was a steady stream of sponsorship money and fan revenue to feed the monster. I do not want to sound alarmist here; those revenue streams have not dried up. But they are not growing either. It would be foolhardy to ignore what is going on in the real world and pretend that it cannot have any impact on the playful world of professional sports.

Not all is lost. Not all is peaches and cream either.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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