The Sports Curmudgeon®

Once again, the NCAA Mythical Picks are out early this week. It’s a long story as to why they have to be out today in order to be out before Saturday’s games and I am positive that no one cares about the details; so let the Mythical Picks begin…

Linfield College took it on the chin last week losing at home to Willamette University 58-28. Linfield’s record stands at 4-2 as they pursue one more win to give them their 53rd consecutive winning season in football. [Errata: Last week, I said Linfield sought their 54th consecutive winning season because I miscalculated. Mea culpa.] This week, the Wildcats travel to Tacoma, Washington to play the Loggers of the University of Puget Sound. The Loggers are 2-4 this year and are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. Go Wildcats!

Here are some highlights and lowlights from last week’s Mythical Picks:

Last week I said,”Kentucky’s offense is overmatched against Florida’s defense.” Final score was Florida 63 and Kentucky 5. [Highlight.]

Last week I said, “UConn has been underwhelming lately. Even on the road, I like Cincy to win and cover here.” Final score was UConn 40 and Cincy 16. [Lowlight.]

Last week I said, “I think Northwestern wins and covers and the game goes OVER.” Final score was Indiana 21 and Northwestern 19. [Lowlight.]

Last week I said, “Wisconsin does not score enough to get this game near 60 points so I’d play this UNDER.” Final score was Wisconsin 27 and Illinois 17. [Highlight.]

Of course, no one would think of using anything in here as the basis for deciding how to wager on any particular game. If you did that, you would also probably be dumb enough to pay double face value for tickets to one of the Division 1-A College Football Playoff Games…

General Comments

Since I have been tracking Linfield College’s quest for a 53rd consecutive season with a winning record, here is a Quick Quiz for you. The answer will be provided a few paragraphs below:

Since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996, which school in that conference is the only one to have a winning record every season between 1996 and 2008? [Yes, they are already assured of a winning season this year so you can skip past Iowa State and Baylor as you try to figure this one out…]

OK, here’s a bonus question for the Quick Quiz of the week:

What is the bigger surprise this year?

Clemson – picked to be a top-10 team this year – with a record of 3-4 and with two of those wins coming over The Citadel and South Carolina State - - or - -

Vanderbilt – a traditional SEC doormat – with a record of 5-3 and bowl eligibility if they win one more game. [Last time Vandy went to a bowl game was in 1982.]

250 words or less…

Michigan’s record is 2-6 and everyone has commented on the embarrassment of such a record for such a big time program. However, there is the potential for even greater ignominy here. Since it began playing intercollegiate football, Michigan has never – as in not one time – lost more than 7 games in a season. Still on Michigan’s dance card are Purdue (not good), Minnesota (not nearly as good as their record), Northwestern (well above average) and Ohio State (really good). Somewhere in the celestial skyboxes, Woody Hayes is poking Bo Schembechler in the ribs and laughing…

Last weekend, Michigan State beat Michigan in Ann Arbor for the first time since 1990. That means that Michigan has lost four times at home this year and it has been a looong time since that happened. Additionally, Michigan has more turnovers than TDs for the season. Not much good news is emanating from “The Big House” this season.

Another football program with a far less than normal season of accomplishments is Arizona State. In pre-season polls [for whatever they are worth beyond humor value] ASU was a Top 20 team. They won their first two games; then they lost in overtime at home to UNLV on 13 September. They have not won since and if they lose the next game, it will be ASU’s first six-game losing streak in 78 years.

In the 80s and 90s, Washington was a football powerhouse. Those days are clearly in the rearview mirror and this year’s team is possibly the worst one for the Huskies in next-to-forever. Washington is 0-7; Ty Willingham has already been fired as of the end of the season; USC is on the docket for this weekend; the Huskies did not snap the ball in Notre Dame’s end of the field last weekend until 6 minutes were left in the game. They close the season with their rivalry game against Washington State.

Washington State is an epically bad football team. They have given up 385 points in 8 games; that’s 48 points per game. The PAC-10 record for points allowed in a season is 469 by Oregon State in 1981. The Cougars look to blow by that record easily.

So, in that upcoming Washington/Washington State game, will the score be something like 55-52 or will it be 6-3? That might be the only reason to check the score…

Last week, South Florida lost to Louisville. In that game, USF had 344 yards passing which is pretty good; in that same game, USF had a total of 8 yards rushing which is awful. In case you think that all they did was throw the ball and that is why they only had 8 yards rushing, they tried to run the ball 24 times. They averaged 1 foot per carry!

Navy beat SMU 37-7 last weekend in near monsoon conditions. Navy never even attempted a forward pass in the game. Obviously, that has happened before in college football, but you have to admit it is a rarity. Earlier this season, Army won a game without completing a forward pass – but they did try to throw a couple of times.

Virginia started the season at 1-3 and looked as if they were ready for the embalming fluid. Now they have won four in a row over Maryland, East Carolina, UNC and Georgia Tech. They might actually make bowl-eligibility. Who knew?

Pitt had been on a roll with a 5-1 start to the 2008 season and a Top-20 ranking. Then last week they lost at home to Rutgers by 20 points and allowed offensively challenged Rutgers to score 54 points. Rutgers QB, Mike Teel threw for 6 TDs and completed 14 of his 21 attempts. If Pitt is for real, they will have the chance to show it with an upcoming schedule of Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincy, West Virginia and UConn.

The Big Ten schedule makers have both Penn State and Ohio State “on furlough” this weekend so that conference can have its fans focus on the JV schedule.

Answer to the Quick Quiz question above:

Texas Tech has been the only Big 12 School with a winning record for each of the seasons that the Big 12 has been in existence.

I have asked previously for people to pay exactly no attention to the meaningless and self-aggrandizing AP Football Poll. Consider that Oklahoma State at #7 last week played away against #1 Texas. They lost the game by 4 points and had a “Hail Mary” shot at the end zone at the end to win the game. Oklahoma State dropped in the polls this week. Did the AP voters who put them at #7 really expect them to win on the road against the team that the AP voters thought was the best team in the country?

The SHOE Tournament

The idea of a tournament to identify the worst team in the country is one that has brought positive comments to Curmudgeon Central. Some folks have said that the idea might catch on more broadly if it did not bear an acronym for Steaming Heap of Excrement, but that’s the way things go in Curmudgeon Central; we call things what they are.

For week 10 of the 2008 season, the SHOE Tournament would shape up like this:

#1 seed: North Texas for the 3rd week in a row. According to a report in the Denton Record-Chronicle fifteen players on the team failed drug tests in the pre-season. Coach Todd Dodge said that these were not tests for performance enhancing drugs; these were tests for performance “de-hancing” drugs. Good to know that this team is not on performance enhancers and still stinking out the joint.

#2 seed: SMU. Idaho won last week so it has to vacate the #2 seed here.

#3 and #4 seeds: Utah State and San Diego State in whichever order you might prefer…

#5 seed: Washington State. See defensive liabilities noted above.

#6 and #7 seeds: Flip a coin between Wyoming and Tulane for position here.

#8 seed: Washington. See comments above.

Blips on the radar screen that may still find their way into the SHOE Tournament would be:

Idaho: A win over New Mexico State is not a get-out-of-jail-free card.

La Monroe/ UAB/ Eastern Michigan: Not a good team in this bunch.

Syracuse: Are they showing life or are opponents taking them so much for granted that the scores recently have been “close”? The SHOE Tournament would answer that question…

The Ponderosa Spread Games:

Last week, favorites covered in 3 out of 4 Ponderosa Spread Games. That brings the season total for favorites covering here to 34-20-2

Florida, TCU and Troy State covered.

Ball State did not cover.

This week we have 5 Ponderosa Spread Games:

Iowa State at Oklahoma State – 31 (64.5): This is a trap game; beware. OK State had Texas last week and they have Texas Tech next week. Be careful here.

Arkansas State at Alabama – 24 (46): This is another trap game. Alabama had Tennessee last week and they have LSU next week. Be careful here.

Washington State at Stanford – 30 (54): A SHOE Tournament team is on the road here meaning it should be stomped. In its games against Division 1-A teams, Washington State has been outscored 376-63. Meanwhile, it has to be decades since Stanford was a 30-point favorite over any other football team above the middle school level…

Washington at USC – 44.5 (57): Another SHOE Tournament team on the road and this time against a Top-10 team. Here’s the deal. If Pete Carroll calls off the dogs realizing that Ty Willingham has already been fired and Carroll does not want to make this into an epic humiliation, the score could be 48-3. If Carroll goes all out, USC can lay a 69-0 game on Washington just as they did to Washington State.

Tulane at LSU – 25 (55): Another SHOE Tournament team takes to the road against a very good team. LSU is not as good as it was last year; they gave up 52 points to Georgia last week and 51 points to Florida the week before that. Nonetheless, they are way better than Tulane.

Games of Interest:

West Virginia – 3.5 at UConn (44.5): West Virginia’s offense looked as if the light just went on last week against a very good Auburn defense. Meanwhile, UConn pounded Cincy last weekend - - but that is a totally different class of opponent. I think West Virginia can win big here. I’ll take them to win and cover.

Wisconsin at Michigan State – 4.5 (48): Wisconsin was a pre-season Top 20 team; now they need this game to make it to a bowl game that is not a complete embarrassment. Michigan State still has a shot – albeit an outside shot – to play in the Rose Bowl. Both teams like to run the ball; the winner here will be the team that better stops the opponent’s rushing game. Looking at trends, Wisconsin is 0-2 on the road in the Big Ten this year losing to Iowa and to Michigan on the road. Michigan State is better than either of those two teams…

Northwestern at Minnesota – 7.5 (44): Northwestern was awful last week against Indiana; five turnovers were their undoing. Prior to beating Northwestern last weekend, Indiana’s two wins had come at the expense of “Mighty” Murray State and “Wonderous” Western Kentucky. Minnesota has an inflated record against less than stiff competition but they do lead the nation in takeaways. I think this spread is about right so I would not bet this game.

Michigan at Purdue – 2 (44): This is Joe Tiller’s last year at the helm for Purdue and this is one of his worst teams. Tiller has taken Purdue to 10 bowl games but now his team is 2-6 and he has to run the table just to be bowl eligible. Michigan’s problems are chronicled above. There is a perverse match up in this game. Michigan has the Big Ten’s worst offense; Purdue has the Big Ten’s worst defense. Which unit shall stink more?

Auburn at Mississippi – 6.5 (41): It has been a while since Auburn was an underdog to Mississippi by almost a touchdown.

Tulsa – 7 at Arkansas (78): Tulsa is 8-0 but the only way they find themselves in a big time bowl game is to go undefeated for the season and to pound opponents into the dirt. Arkansas is an important game for them because Arkansas – while not all that good this year – has “name recognition” among poll voters. A big win here is important to Tulsa. I think Tulsa stomps on the gas here and rolls over Arkansas by 2 touchdowns.

San Diego State at Wyoming – 4.5 (46): This game could be a match up in the SHOE Tournament! Both teams stink. This is a “DNA Game”. Everyone has to submit to a DNA test before entering the stadium because if you are not a blood relative to one of the players or coaches, you will be offered counseling help. Do not bet on this game!

Kentucky at Mississippi State – 2.5 (38.5): If you like low-scoring defense-dominated games where each possession can have a major impact on the outcome of the game, you should like this one. If you like high scoring shoot-outs, you should be asleep somewhere around the end of the first quarter of this one. I sort of like Mississippi State here and I do like the game UNDER.

Pitt at Notre Dame – 5 (50): Will the real Pitt team please identify itself? If you think Pitt was embarrassed by their pants-wetting against Rutgers last week and that Pitt is hugely better than that, take Pitt with the points here against a good but not great Notre Dame team. However, if you believe that Pitt showed what it really is last week, Notre Dame will crush them. Who knows – other than The Shadow of course…? Do not bet this game.

Oregon at Cal – 3 (65): The best of the PAC-10 games this week by a long shot… Both teams have only one conference loss; this game means something to both squads. Oregon runs the ball very well; Cal has the nation’s 12th best rushing defense. In Oregon’s two losses this year, they have given up huge yardage to the opponent’s passing attack; normally Cal is a throwing team but their QBs this year have been inconsistent at best. Even on the road, I think Oregon can win the game outright so I’ll take them with the points here.

Florida State at Georgia Tech – 3 (42.5): I think that Florida State’s defense can contain the option attack that Georgia Tech runs. I like FSU with the points here.

Tennessee at South Carolina – 5.5 (38): This could be a game for Phil Fulmer’s job. Tennessee is 3-5 and has some ugly losses this year. After this game, the Vols schedule is a bit softer with Wyoming (a SHOE Tournament team), Vandy and Kentucky left on the schedule. That means a win this week could set up a four game win streak and a bowl invitation that might save Phil Fulmer’s job. Here’s the challenge: Tennessee’s offense is 112th in the country; South Carolina wins because of its stout defense. I like the Gamecocks here by a TD or more.

Nebraska at Oklahoma – 22 (70): Once upon a time, this would have been the biggest game of the year; now it isn’t even close to being the best game of the week. Once upon a time, a score of 17-14 would decide this game; now it will be shocking if the total stays below 60. I see lots of offense here so I’ll guess that the game goes OVER.

Texas – 4.5 at Texas Tech (75.5): This is the Game of the Week. Both teams are 8-0; Texas has won 9 in a row; Texas Tech has won 10 in a row. Colt McCoy has completed 85% of his passes in the past three games; Graham Harrell is averaging 393 yards per game passing. I see more than 800 yards total in pass offense and more than 900 yards of total offense in this game. Could it actually go over 1000 yards? Texas has answered the challenge against top-flight competition for the past three weeks but all of those games were in Austin or on a neutral site against Oklahoma. This game is in Lubbock. I’ll make this a venue call and go with Texas Tech and it ought to go OVER too.

Arizona State at Oregon State – 15 (54): Take the OVER here???

Florida – 6 vs. Georgia (56.5): Just to cheese off the ever so politically correct folks in the administration offices at Florida and Georgia and the namby-pamby NCAA goofs, let me call this game by its old-time name - - The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. It is also the second best game of the week. Georgia beat LSU handily last week but Georgia gave up 38 points in the process. If the Bulldogs give up 38 this week, they will lose because Florida’s defense will not give up 39 points. I lean toward taking Georgia with the points here but I prefer to take the game UNDER.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…