The Sports Curmudgeon®

Last week, the Mythical Picks were en fuego; the overall record was 13-6. If things go true to form, they will be en hielo this week.

The Over/Under Picks last weekend were 7-3 bringing the season totals for Over/Under Picks much closer to respectability. These picks are still under .500 at 10-12.

The Against the Spread Picks last weekend were 6-3 taking them to the gaudy level of 19-11 for the year. Despite the 63% success rate for these picks so far this year, there will be no “Bet The 401(k) Mortal Lock of the Millennium” pick this week.

No one should use anything here as the basis for making a wager on a football game this weekend. If you did that, you would be so stupid that you could not find a quarterback at a Manning Family picnic.

General Comments:

I read somewhere that 12 Green Bay Packers fans got to buy season tickets this year after spending “more than thirty years” on the waiting list. [Currently the waiting list for Packers’ season tix is more than 78,000.] So, I wonder how happy those folks were to be in Lambeau Field to witness the Cowboys first victory there - - ever.

One of the Internet sportsbooks now has posted proposition bets on when Raiders’ coach Lane Kiffen will be fired. Week 5 – next week – is a bye week for the Raiders and that is the “favorite” at the moment with odds of 9-5.

News Flash News Flash

This just in to Curmudgeon Central. The Raiders have announced that Lane Kiffen will start this weekend as coach of the team. The team denied reports that his headphones were also wired to deliver 50,000 volts from earpiece to earpiece just in case Al Davis got unhappy during the game. We now return you to your originally scheduled rant.

Actually, here is a scenario I would like to see play out with the Raiders this weekend. The team came out flat in the first half and the Chargers just blew their doors off to lead by 30 points at halftime. Knowing the bye week is coming, Al Davis made the decision to get a new coach sometime near the end of the first quarter, but he is so steamed at the halftime score that he fires Kiffen during the halftime. Instead of having one of the coordinators take over, Al Davis himself puts on the headphones and calls the game from upstairs. Were there any doubts as to who was in charge, that would squelch them. Were there any doubts about organizational dysfunctionality, that should squelch them.

Oh, by the way, if indeed Rob Ryan moves up to the position of head coach or interim head coach or head coach for the moment of the Raiders, he would immediately set a record for the head coach with the longest hair in NFL history. Every time I see him prowling on the sidelines, I want to call him Simba.

Oh by the way one more time, if indeed Rob Ryan becomes the head coach in Oakland, the probability that he will last their longer than John Madden’s tenure with the club is equivalent to the probability that Ralph Nader will be named CEO and Chairman of the Board for General Motors.

Last week’s loss by the Raiders to the Bills belongs squarely in the lap of Rob Ryan and the defense. Kiffen has already said that the Raiders defense was too passive in the loss to Denver in Week 1 and that Kiffen is not part of the process of developing a defensive game plan or part of calling the defenses. Well, the Raiders’ defense last weekend gave the game up. With 8 minutes to play, the Raiders led 16-7. After allowing a TD to make the score 16-14, the offense scored again to raise the lead to 23-14. Then the defense allowed 10 more points – bringing the 8-minute total in the fourth quarter to 17 points.

When you look at the sidelines during NFL games, most coaches are animated and “into the games”. However, there are a few stoics on the sidelines:

Tony Dungy and Dick Jauron look professorially inquisitive during the games. It is as if they are witnessing the enactment of a great mystery story and are seeking to process everything going on so they can get to the answer before everyone else.

Lovie Smith often looks confused on the sidelines. If he is witnessing the enactment of the same great mystery as Dungy and Jauron, he looks as if he isn’t getting all the clues.

Eric Mangini has a look on his face that says, “How the hell did that happen?”

Ken Whisenhunt just buries his face in his laminated note sheet probably to avoid having to confront what just happened.

Scott Linehan simply looks lost.

There are four 0-3 teams in the NFL who are just not going anywhere. Obviously, the coaches of those teams are feeling the heat to get better quickly lest they lose their jobs even before Lane Kiffen loses his. In some cases, getting fired might be a blessing:

Herm Edwards is an articulate and intelligent man who has a team in KC so deep in a rebuilding/reassessment process that he knows he will not win 4 games this year and may not win 4 next year either. The NFLPA needs a new Executive Director and it makes a lot of sense for that slot to be filled with a former player who has managerial experience. Herm Edwards would probably enjoy the negotiations in getting to a new CBA more than slogging through the muck and mire of this bad football team.

Rod Marinelli has suffered enough in Detroit. The team is solid at exactly one position - - wide receiver. Everywhere else, the team is average at best and usually below average when compared to the rest of the league. Rod Marinelli cannot win there without a magic wand.

Romeo Crennel caught a huge break last season. He played a weak schedule; and for the first 10 games of the year, Derek Anderson played like an emerging star. That made the Browns look like a team on the rise; they are not. In the offseason, the Browns gave Derek Anderson a $25M contract extension; that was a mistake then; it is an albatross around the neck of the franchise now. So far this year, Anderson has yet to throw for more than 170 yards in a game; he has completed less than 50% of his passes; he has 2 TDs and 5 INTs.

Marvin Lewis actually had the Bengals in the playoffs in 2005. Remember how the Bengals declared that there was a new pecking order in the AFC North and that the Bengals were the team to beat now. Well, that came unraveled quickly; everyone is now beating the Bengals. During the last few years, the Bengals’ offense kept them in games and won games while the defense just stunk. Now the offense has fallen on hard times and it’s hard to see where inspiration comes from on that team.

In the Bears’ offseason, Coach Lovie Smith declared that Mark Bradley was the team’s #1 wide receiver. That had to come as a surprise to lots of NFL fans who did not know Mark Bradley from Omar Bradley. It had to be an even bigger surprise to fantasy football geeks who knew off the top of their head that Mark Bradley had caught a total of six passes in 2007. [For the record, Omar Bradley caught no passes in 2007 because he had been dead for 26 years at that point.]

Well, three games into the 2008 season, the Bears cut Mark Bradley leaving them with Brandon Lloyd as their #1 wide receiver. Anyone who can make sense out of that should be hired immediately by one of the major news networks to explain and interpret the tsunami of words that will soon emanate from the Presidential “debates”.

Counting last year’s playoff run, the Giants have now won 12 consecutive road games. That’s impressive. However, it’s not close to the NFL record for consecutive road wins; the record is 21 held by the SF 49ers from 1988 – 1990. To put a perspective on that, if the Giants win all seven of their remaining road games this season – not a trivial undertaking at all considering they visit all three of their NFC East foes and Pittsburgh – they will have 19 road wins at that point and would need another run in the playoffs to break the record.

The Giants are off this week but they suspended Plaxico Burress for one game for a “violation of team rules”. That means Burress will miss next week’s game against Seattle and will not be allowed to be with the team for any activities leading up to that game. Unless the “violation of team rules” had something to do with molesting the owner’s household pets, look for Plax to be back with the team immediately after the Seattle game.

The Colts get their bye week now. They need it. Looking beyond the record showing that a typically fast starting team has already lost two games in September, the Colts have serious problems. I do not remember the circumstances where I first heard this line so I cannot give proper credit, but the Colts defense can’t stop a run in a pair of pantyhose. Bob Sanders is out for at least another month; Peyton Manning is clearly not as comfortable in the pocket as usual; with a struggling passing game and a makeshift OL, Joseph Addai looks like Joseph Flabeetz out there. I’m not ready to write the Colts off yet, but they do need to get better quickly.

Atlanta at Carolina – 6.5 (39.5): I know the Falcons are 2-1 but they have beaten the Lions and the Chiefs. I know that Michael Turner leads the NFL in rushing so far but he has run against the Lions and the Chiefs. Carolina is the better team and they are at home. I like the Panthers to win and cover here.

Denver – 9 at KC (47): What does this line say about the Denver defense when a game against the sorry-assed Chiefs has an OVER/UNDER line at 47? That is the second highest line of that type for the week. On the other hand, is this an indication that the Denver offense might take the game over the total all by itself? The Chiefs will not start Tyler Thigpen at QB this week; they return Damon Huard to the starting line-up; somehow, I find it very difficult to restrain a yawn at this moment. Underdogs at home can very tempting but I will avoid the temptation this time and take the Broncos to win and cover. By the way if you do want the Chiefs in this game, shop the line; you can find it at 10 points in a couple of places.

SF at New Orleans – 5.5 (48): The Saints defense is awful. Mike Martz has an offense in place that can move the ball on the ground and in the air. I don’t think the Niners are one of the NFL elite by any stretch of the imagination and that is what gives me pause about picking them on the road against a team that has the ability to score points in bunches. Nevertheless, I distrust the Saints defense more than I distrust the Niners on the road so I’ll take the Niners with the points here. I also like this game OVER.

Arizona at Jets – 1.5 (44.5): The Cardinals stayed on the East Coast after last Sunday’s loss in Washington to avoid two consecutive weeks of coast-to-coast travel. [The Patriots are probably looking at this to see how it works out because the Pats have this coming up twice later this season.] Neither team looked good last week but even accounting for the fact that the Jets played a superior opponent, the Jets looked the worse of the two. The last time the Cardinals beat the Jets, it was 1978 and Jimmy Carter was at the center of what he called a “national malaise” – a major component of which was that we had to listen to Jimmy Carter give State of the Union messages. Neither team has impressed me this season. I’m flipping a coin here and it says to take the game OVER.

Minnesota at Tennessee – 3 (36.5): Tennessee has allowed only 29 points in three games this year. Minnesota’s defense ain’t shabby either. Factoid: The Titans have never started a season with a 4-0 record going all the way back to their roots as the Houston Oilers in the old AFL. The Vikes are really bad in third down conversions; they are 13 for 41 on the year; last week with Gus Frerotte at the helm, they were 4 for 12 and that was an improvement. With Gus Frerotte and Kerry Collins under center here, the combined age of the starting quarterbacks is close to the amount of money AIG needed for its bailout. I like the Titans at home here so I’ll take them and lay the points. Purely on a hunch, I’ll also take this game to go UNDER.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay – 1.5 (43): This is the second best game of the week. I have never been enamored with Brian Griese at QB and I do not think that the Packers will allow him to throw 67 passes in the game without a sack. That is the luxury trip he had against the Bears last week. I agree this game will be close but I’ll take the Packers with the points because I think the Packers will win the game outright.

Houston at Jax – 7.5 (42.5): The Jags running game came to life last week when Taylor and Jones-Drew combined to run for 228 yards against the Colts. The Jags defense should have sufficient answers for the Houston offense - - except for the fact that Houston always overachieves against Jax. For the Jags, this is a “sandwich game”; last week they played and upset the Colts; next week they get the Steelers to pay a call; they could let down just a bit here. David Garrard is not playing the same mistake-free football that he showed for most of last year so I’ll go out on a limb and take the Texans with the points here.

Cleveland at Cincy – 3.5 (44.5): Clearly, the worst game of the week, nothing approaches the malodor emanating from this festering heap of garbage of a game. Neither team has a win this year, so both are “o-fers”. If you insist on digging through the pile of horsesh*t here to find the pony, Cincy did put up a fight last week against a top-tier opponent; in fact, all of the Cincy opponents this year remain undefeated at the moment. Cleveland has been just plain awful all season long. Do not bet on this game; do not watch this game. Only because I said I would make a pick in every game on the schedule will I suggest taking the Bengals at home laying the points and taking the game to go OVER.

San Diego – 7.5 at Oakland (45.5): The line on this game varies from 7.5 to 9 depending on the sportsbook you happen to be scanning at any given moment. I think this is a Chargers’ blowout so I’ll take the Chargers and lay the points. If you like the Raiders, you can get up to 9 points by shopping the line.

Proposition: Chargers win by 17 or more and Lane Kiffen is the coach 24 hours after the game is over. Yes + 250 No - 300

Proposition: Chargers win by 17 or more and Rob Ryan is on the staff of the Raiders 24 hours after the game is over. Yes -115 No -115

Proposition: Raiders win and Lane Kiffen coaches the team 2 weeks from now. Yes -115 No - 115.

Buffalo – 8 at St. Louis (42): If the Rams play this Sunday twice as good as they have in their first three games, they will still lose. If they play twice as good as before, they might – I said MIGHT – cover. Give me Buffalo and you can have the points here.

Washington at Dallas – 11.5 (45.5): This is the best game of the weekend. Since this is the last season for Texas Stadium, this is probably the last time the Redskins will go there to play the Cowboys. [It could happen in the NFC playoffs; I know that. But that’s not likely.] This is a rivalry game and the often play out much closer than they look on paper, but the disparity between these two teams on the field so far this year is very large. Dallas has beaten two of the best teams in the NFC – one of them handily; Washington has scratched out wins over New Orleans and Arizona. I think the Redskins will play with more emotion and Dallas will play with more talent. I want this game OVER.

Proposition: Terrell Owens has more than 100 yards receiving. Yes - 115 No - 115.

Philly – 3 at Chicago (40.5): Will Brian Westbrook be able to play near 100% efficiency? Will Donovan McNabb be able to play near 100% efficiency? Will the Bears allow the Eagles to throw the ball all day without recording a sack? [Brian Griese threw 67 passes last week and was sacked not a single time.] Will Devin Hester be able to play near 100% efficiency? There are way too many unknowns in this game to do a thorough analysis. At full strength, the Eagles are better than the Bears at full strength. Therefore, I’ll guess the injuries average out and take the Eagles and lay the points.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 5 (34.5): This game will feature defense and physicality. Some of the hits in this game would be sufficient to rearrange the molars on an ox. I know that Joe Flacco is 2-0 in his NFL starts but beating Cincy and Cleveland means he has not faced a top tier defense yet. Additionally, Flacco passed for only 129 yards in both games. Last week, the Eagles blitzed the Steelers into submission. Ravens coach John Harbaugh studied under Jim Johnson in Philly so there could be “more of the same” this week. Willie Parker is out of the game so the Steelers ground game – which was AWOL last week – might be only a distant memory in this one. Factoid: The Steelers have converted only 5 of their last 25 third-down situations. I think this game will be decided by which team makes fewer mistakes. Therefore, am I more comfortable riding with Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisberger to avoid a late mistake? The game will be fun to watch but I would not wager on it for real. Mythically, I’ll take the Steelers at home and lay the points.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…