The Sports Curmudgeon

Just to set the stage here, I’m writing this on Friday morning and so I won’t pretend that I took the Colts over the Saints last night. But they sure did look good in dismantling the Saints 41-10, didn’t they? The over/under line for that game started the week at 51; that would have made the game a push. But there had to be a huge influx of money on the OVER because the line climbed to 53.5 at most sportsbooks by Thursday afternoon and to 54 at two of them. And all of those OVER bets were losers.

The lesson here is that an influx of money on one side of a wager is not necessarily an indicator that someone knows something about the game…

I want to urge everyone reading this not to use anything here as part of your decision-making processes regarding wagers you might make that involve actual negotiable currency. If you did that, you’d probably be dumb enough to go to the Olympics, win a gold medal, and then have it bronzed.

General Comments:

You are going to see a lot of “Brett Favre moments” on ESPN this season because he is going to set a bunch of records this year unless he gets carted off the field in a body cast. Here are some milestones well within his reach this year:

Favre’s seventh TD pass this year will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of Dan Marino’s 420 TDs.

Favre’s fifth INT this year will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of George Blanda’s 277.

Favre’s second win this year will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of John Elway’s 148.

Favre’s 138th pass attempt will put him at #1 on the all-time list ahead of Dan Marino’s 8,358.

Here is a milestone that may or may not be within reach for Brett Favre this year:

He needs 3,862 yards passing to pass Dan Marino’s all-time record of 61,361.

Get set for one new rule change in the NFL this year. Players are only permitted to spike the ball in the end zone after a TD. So, if a player catches an eight-yard pass for a first down and spikes the ball, he will draw a five-yard penalty. That doesn’t bother me; in fact, I’d rather see it be a 15-yard penalty to be sure that no team has it happen twice this year.

Here’s something from Randy Galloway in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that I had not realized. The Dallas Cowboys have not won a playoff game in 10 years. I would have lost that bet…

There are a few games this opening weekend that look to have all the appeal of pigsty in the middle of the dog days of August. You’ll probably be able to tell which ones they are as I go through the list.

KC at Houston – 3 (37.5): You may need to carry some air-freshener with you if you watch this one. I know the exhibition games are meaningless, but KC only scored 32 points in those meaningless games. At best, these two teams are mediocre so you can surely find something more interesting to do than to wager on this one. Because I said I’d pick every game – and for no other reason – I’ll take Houston at home and lay the points.

Denver – 3 at Buffalo (37): You know how Mike Shanahan looks as if steam is about to burst from every orifice in his head when the Broncos are stymied? I think he might look like that this weekend. I’ll take Buffalo at home with the points.

Pittsburgh – 4 at Cleveland (36.5): The Mike Tomlin-era is not off to a very respectful start with the Vegas oddsmakers; Cleveland is not a good team. In what I think will be low scoring games, I usually prefer to take the points, but I can’t do that here. Give me the Steelers and I’ll lay the points.

Tennessee at Jax – 7 (37.5): This is the largest spread of the week. Either the schedule-makers managed to put together all close games this week or the oddsmakers haven’t gotten a line on all of the teams just yet. I want the Titans here with the points please. And Tennessee is at +300 on the money line at several sportsbooks; at that price, they are worth a wager to win the game outright.

Carolina at St. Louis – 1 (42.5): I think the Panthers can legitimately aspire to the playoffs – albeit as the second NFL wildcard team. I just don’t see the Rams being much of anything this year. Give me the Panthers and that point.

Philly – 3 at Green Bay (42.5): Lambeau Field is not the home-field advantage that it used to be and this Green Bay team is not going to be confused with the Lombardi incarnations of the Packers. But the team and the fans should be up for the season opener here. Andy Reid’s teams typically start fast. So I see this game as a high scoring affair and I’ll take the game OVER.

Atlanta at Minnesota – 3 (35.5): Joey Harrington versus Tarvaris Jackson; give me a break! This game is a stinker. Unless you have a blood relative playing in it or coaching one of these fetid teams, watch something else. And for heaven’s sake don’t bet on this game for real. The only “angle” I see in this game is that Minnesota has a good defense and Atlanta’s offense should be one step above feeble. So, I’ll take the Vikes, lay the points, and hope that Tarvaris Jackson can find a way not to trip over his own two feet for 60 minutes on Sunday.

Miami at Washington – 3 (34.5): Miami has a good defense and should keep the Skins’ offense in check. Miami also has a weak offense, which should have difficulty scoring even against a marginal Skins’ defense. Having said that, you’d think that I see this game as a 10-7 game; I don’t. Somehow, points will show up and so I’ll take the game OVER this very, very low number.

New England – 6 at Jets (41): This is one of the three best games of the weekend. These are two good teams who happen to be in the same division so the game has a heightened degree of importance. I think the Pats are sitting on a big season so I’ll take them here and lay the points on the road.

Tampa Bay at Seattle – 5.5 (41): Seattle is the better team here even though the Bucs now have an NFL caliber QB who knows the West Coast offense. Add to that the trip diagonally across the country for the Bucs and the home field advantage that the Seahawks enjoy at Qwest Field and you get a big win for Seattle. I’ll take the Seahawks and lay the points.

Chicago at San Diego – 6 (42): This is the best game of the weekend. Nothing like a wee spot of pressure for Norv Turner in his opening game. He’s a six-point favorite over a Super Bowl participant last year at home. These are two good defenses. These can be two good offenses but Rex Grossman is hardly what you’d call a reliable QB. Then again, Rex is in his contract year … Norv Turner is also coaching against his brother Ron who is the offensive coordinator for the Bears. And when the Bears fired Ron Rivera as defensive coordinator after last season, Rivera took the job in San Diego. Lots of story lines here but the bottom line is I want the Chargers at home and I’ll lay the points.

Detroit at Oakland – 2.5 (40): This game stinketh !!! Last year, these two squads finished with a combined record of 5-27. There aren’t enough candles on the planet to make this game smell good. I think the Lions are the better team. I know the Lions tend to play very meekly on the road. The key to this game is the Lions’ suspect defense against the Raiders’ “MIA offense”. I can’t believe I am actually going to take the Lions on the road. But I’ll do just that with those points.

Giants at Dallas – 5.5 (44): In a move that shocked no one with an IQ over 72, Michael Strahan showed up to play for the Giants right after they closed down training camp. I wonder if he plans to practice with the team at all this season or if he’ll just beam down to the locker room on game day… By the middle of this year, Strahan will not be a starter at DE or an every down player at DE. That ought to make him a joy to be around. I like Dallas to win and cover here because their defense is better than the Giants’ defense while the two offenses are similar in ability.

Baltimore at Cincy – 3 (40): This is the “early Monday night game” and it is one of the three best games of the weekend. Carson Palmer makes the Bengals’ offense formidable; the Ravens’ defense is formidable even when half asleep. The Bengals’ defense couldn’t stop a run in a pair of pantyhose last year; the Ravens’ offense tries not to lose games for their defense. If there were value in playing the Ravens on the money like, I’d do that because I think they will win the game; but the odds are not appealing there. This should be an entertaining game and I’ll take the Ravens with the points.

Arizona at SF – 3 (44): This is the “late Monday night game” as the NFL puts out a Monday doubleheader to get the season started. This game does not have the “cachet” of the earlier game but it’s not one of the week’s horrid games either. I see lots and lots of points here so I want the game OVER. It will take some kind of excitement to keep East Coast fans awake to tune in for the second half that likely won’t start much before midnite.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…