The Sports Curmudgeon

Let me set the stage here for new readers. Every year, I look ahead to the NFL season and scope out every team and try to predict the exact number of wins for each and every team. For those of you who are math-challenged, that means I also predict the total losses for every team. And I leave all of this posted on the website for anyone to go and look at during the season or after the season. When I’m wrong, I tend to be REALLY wrong and folks can send along snarky notes when they see the actual results. But just remember, prediction is a lot more difficult than post-diction. If one could only invest in hindsight, imagine how many folks would have bought Microsoft shares at 50 cents…

One more thing about my inevitable mistakes here… When I suggest that a team will win 4 or 5 games and it turns out that they are the Cinderella team of the year and win 11 games, I do not owe them an apology. I need to admit I was wrong, which I will do at the end of the year when I go back and give myself grades for all of the divisions – just like in high school. Oh, and I certainly don’t owe anything even resembling an apology to the fans of that team for saying something negative about their heroes.

First, a few overview remarks:

1. Since the merger of the NFL and the AFL, the Lions have lost 335 games; the Saints have lost 329. This neck-and-neck battle for the Futility Champion does not receive nearly enough attention.

2. Speaking of the merger, of the teams around at the time of the merger, only three of them have not been to the playoffs in this century. Those would be the Lions, Cardinals and Bills. Among these three, which will be the last one to make it to a playoff game? Note, I didn’t say, “win a playoff game”… I’m thinking Bills, maybe?

3. The Dolphins and Giants will play a “for real” game at Wembly Stadium in London in late October. Miami is the “home team” for that game as designated by the NFL Front Office. That gives Miami only seven “real home games”. Now if you recall, the Giants were the recipients of a “ninth home game” a couple of years ago when the Saints played the Giants in the Meadowlands instead of in hurricane-ravaged New Orleans. So, why didn’t the league count this game as a Giants’ home game this year? Just asking…

Obviously, the NFL coaching hot seats really become uncomfortable when a team has lost 5 games in a row or after consecutive 25-point losses. But I do believe that ten coaches are feeling a bit of posterior warmth already – such as:

Brad Childress – Minnesota: The Vikings hired him away from the Eagles where he was the offensive coordinator. Now he has no offense. Someone may begin to question his “offensive scheme” that worked very well with Donovan McNabb at the helm but seems not to work as well with QBs like Brad Johnson or Tarvaris Jackson.

Norv Turner – San Diego: I know he just arrived in town but he inherited a team that won 14 games last year and lost its only playoff game. That got the previous coach fired; imagine what the expectations are for Norv and his coaching cohorts. If they win the division with only 11 wins, that might make the fans really unhappy. If he only wins 9 games and ekes out the #6 slot in the playoffs as a “Wild Card”, he’d better go to the Super Bowl or he’s gonzo.

Tom Coughlin – New York Giants: I’m surprised he held onto his job – and got a one-year extension of his contract – after last year. Losing Tiki Barber to retirement cannot help the offense; having Kevin Gilbride as the offensive coordinator probably won’t help the offense either.

Wade Phillips – Dallas: I know he just arrived in town but there are some folks in Dallas – and some of them are senior folks in the team management – who think that this is a Super Bowl team. Wade Phillips is a laid-back guy – a players’ coach. His two previous head coaching jobs were in Denver and Buffalo and neither left pleasant tastes in the mouths of the fans in those cities. He has Terrell Owens in the second year of his stay in Dallas so the good behavior honeymoon is over. And most importantly, Bill Cowher may just become “available” for the right offer come next January …

Joe Gibbs – Washington: And most importantly, Bill Cowher may just become “available” for the right offer come next January …

Dick Jauron – Buffalo: The team won 7 games last year. In the off-season, they lost Willis McGahee, Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher-Baker and Nate Clements. And someone will ask how come Jauron didn’t take the team to the next level this year? Yeah, right…

Jon Gruden – Tampa Bay: He has had a “get-out-of-jail-free” card in Tampa because of the Super Bowl win he delivered. I think that will be revoked if the team goes 4-12 this year.

Jack Del Rio – Jax: The QB situation in Jax has been a mess for a while now and it sure seems as if the team handled it about as clumsily as it could. Cutting Byron Leftwich and getting nothing for him when teams are out there trading draft picks for the likes of Kelly Holcumb sure looks like a dumb move. If the Jags don’t make the playoffs, Jack Del Rio may become Jack Up the Creek.

Romeo Crennel – Cleveland: He won six games in his first year in Cleveland. Maybe that created unrealistic expectations for this mediocre-at-best team. Last year he won four games. If the number of wins declines again this year, he may need to look elsewhere for employment.

Marvin Lewis – Cincy: He could be in trouble if a half dozen more Bengals are arrested/indicted/convicted of crimes between now and Christmas. It doesn’t seem as if there are any “on-field” reasons for him to be concerned about his job, but those “off-field” actions could be killers…

AFC West:

This Division has one excellent team, one pretty good team and two teams that aspire to mediocrity. If I have to spell that out for you in the opening paragraph here, you might want to consider whether or not you want to keep on reading. There’s a lot more verbiage coming and this division looks pretty clear from the pre-season perspective.

The San Diego Chargers might have more talent on the squad than any other team in the league. I’m not going to go position-by-position down through the gunners on the punt coverage team, but suffice it to say that the Chargers had eleven Pro-Bowl selections last year – and they’re back. LaDanian Tomlinson is the best all around running back in the NFL at the moment; Antonio Gates is certainly one of the top three tight ends in the game; no DE/OLB is better at rushing the passer than Shawne Merriman and Lorenzo Neal is the best blocking fullback in the league at the moment. Other than that… The question mark for the Chargers is the coaching staff. Firing Marty Schottenheimer and hiring Norv Turner was either a bold stroke of genius or the dumbest decision since Julia Roberts decided to marry Lyle Lovett. Remember this about Norv Turner; in all his years as a head coach in the NFL, he’s only had one team in the playoffs and that was in Washington in the last century. Absent a blight of injuries, the Chargers have too much talent for any coach above the Richie Kotite/Joe Kuharich level to screw up, but I don’t see another year of 14 wins. I’ll give the Chargers 12 wins and the division championship.

The Denver Broncos have talent and they have more stability on the coaching staff than do the Chargers but they have way too many question marks to be able to say they can beat out the Chargers. Here are but a few of the questions. Was Mike Shanahan prescient when he traded up to get Jay Cutler in the draft two years ago or did he panic and grab who was available just so he could replace Jake Plummer? Who on this roster is a bona fide stud at wide receiver? (At the moment, the best I can say about the wide receiving corps in Denver is that they lead the league in “Brandons” with Brandon Stokely and Brandon Marshall.) With all the defensive linemen the Broncos brought to camp, can they actually field a unit that will stop the run effectively? Adding Dré Bly to a defensive backfield that already has Champ Bailey playing one CB position means the defensive coordinator has the luxury to be very creative with what the other nine guys do on any given play. The addition of Travis Henry could give Denver the kind of stud running back who can gain 1800 yards on the ground and another 400 yards passing. Scott Ostler had this observation about Travis Henry’s off-field exploits in the San Francisco Chronicle recently:

“Broncos running back Travis Henry has fathered nine children with nine different women. Henry’s latest signing bonus barely covers his Hallmark bill from last Mother’s Day.”

I could see the Broncos winning ten games this year. But just because I’m a skeptic about Jay Cutler being the 2007 reincarnation of John Elway, I’ll give them a 9-win season because I suspect he’ll lose one game all by himself.

The Oakland Raiders are not a good football team and they have a head coach who is probably still working on his third razor blade. By the end of last season, the Raiders’ defense was good – not great, but good – and the new coaching wunderkind made a smart move by retaining defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan. Nnamdi Asomugah is turning himself into a premier cover corner and really good defenses need one of those kinds of players. Last season the Raiders’ offense was just plain awful on most weekends and then surprised everyone in the cosmos with a few performances that were worse than usual. Can that unit turn things around this year to the point where they reach the level of “marginally competent”? That, ladies and gentlemen, is the $64K question in Oakland. The team signed Dominic Rhodes from the Colts to shore up the running game; Rhodes demonstrated his value immediately by earning a 4-game suspension from the league for violation of the substance abuse policy. The QB situation will be improved if Duante Culpepper is back from his injury; if not, the Raiders will run a “cha-cha offense” much of the time - - one, two, three, kick. With Randy Moss gone, sideline distractions will be reduced - - assuming that Jerry Porter starts to act like something other than a petulant adolescent and actually attempts to show that he can be a #1 receiver. This is a contract year for Porter so he ought to be on his best behavior and playing with high motivation. I swear that I am dead sober as I type these words; I think the Raiders will finish third in this division and that they will win 6 games. That may not sound like much of a season for the Silver and Black, but it would represent three times as many wins as they got last year.

The Kansas City Chiefs are going to finish last in this division. In the last two years, they have lost Willie Roaf and Wil Shields from their OL. Folks, if the Pro Football Hall of Fame actually allowed worthy offensive linemen to get into the Hall of Fame, both of these guys would be there in the near future. Teams don’t lose that kind of talent in that short period of time and recover from it. Larry Johnson’s holdout means he will be more prone to injury because he is not in football shape in the first weeks and it means that the Chiefs won’t be able to work him like a rented mule early on. And the bad news there is that the rest of the Chiefs’ offensive prowess can be summed up in two words: Tony … Gonzalez. Other than Eddie Kennison (who is approaching Methuselah status now), can you name two other WRs on the Chiefs? I had to look them up. The Chiefs are in a rebuilding mode and this year ought to be painful for the fans in KC. I see the Chiefs winning 5 games this year.

AFC South:

This division has one excellent team, one team with a lot of talent who is missing a QB, one team with a superb young QB and not enough talent around him to do all that much and one team that has been pretty bad for all of its existence. I am not ready to crown the Colts as the Super Bowl Champs again this year as some have done, but they ought to win this division handily.

The Indianapolis Colts have an offense that can score lots of points against just about anyone. So long as Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai are healthy, this team will score. The retirement of Tarik Glenn will hurt the Colts’ offensive line and will probably cause Peyton Manning to be sacked two or three times a month more than he is used to being sacked, but the offense ought to be just fine. The question mark is on the defensive side of the ball where the team that ranked dead last in all of the NFL in stopping the rush last season lost two defensive tackles, a starting outside linebacker and two cornerbacks. I think the Colts will be involved in a lot of games that go OVER the total this year. It would be miraculous if anyone else in this division stayed within three games of the Colts this year even factoring in the difficulty that Super Bowl champs encounter week by week, as every team gives them their best shot. I see the Colts winning 12 games this year and winning the division comfortably.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the second best team in this division and in many ways; they are the mirror image of the Colts. The Jaguars defensive unit is what carries this team; they can stop the run and they play tough pass defense; last year they finished 2nd in the NFL in overall defense. On offense, they have a couple of good-but-not-great running backs in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew but their passing attack is suspect on its best days. Now with David Garrard as the #1 QB and Byron Leftwich out of town, the pressure is on the offensive unit to get something going in the passing game. If they do, this team could make the playoffs; if they don’t I think there could be a housecleaning of the coaching staff and a subsequent housecleaning of the offensive roster. I’ll give the Jags 9 wins for the season.

The Tennessee Titans have no questions at the QB position as long as Vince Young is vertical. Remember, this team started last season with five straight losses; then Vince Young entered the line-up and the team went to the final day of the season before it was eliminated from the playoffs. When the Titans decided to let Travis Henry move on to Denver in this off-season, that elevated LenDale White to the status of featured back. The question is whether or not White has the discipline and desire to fill that role in Tennessee or anywhere else. White may be a huge football talent; but at the moment, he’s as close to eating his way out of town as he is to leading his team to the playoffs. Some folks wonder if the loss of DB, Pacman Jones will render the Titans’ defense impotent against the pass. The answer to that will be in the numbers at the end of the year; but frankly, the addition of Nick Harper and rookie Michael Griffen to the defensive backfield ought not to hurt that unit a whole lot. I love Jeff Fisher as a coach and I think Vince Young is a special talent – who merely needs to learn to throw the short ball a bit more accurately – but I think this team is too inexperienced to catch the Colts in the division or make the playoffs. I’ll give the Titans 8 wins this season - - the same as they got last year.

The Houston Texans swept the Jaguars last year and split with the Colts. So how did they wind up with such a bad record? The problem was the offensive line, which was pathetic; the only reason it was not held up to ridicule was that the Raiders’ offensive line out west was even worse. The reason I don’t think this team can move up in the division is that they really didn’t add any significant talent to that OL and I’m not sure that year-to-year improvement in that unit is sufficient. David Carr took the fall – literally and figuratively – for the futility of the franchise over the past several years and is now in Carolina; trading for Matt Schaub may or may not be an upgrade at the position for the Texans; but with Schaub on the Texans’ roster, the Falcons surely look like a team that is unable to get out of its own way. The Texans also acquired Ahman Green in the off-season; and while Green is a recognizable name, I’m not sure he’s nearly the player he was a couple of years ago. He had another 1000+ yards rushing last year but he is now 30 years old and he has missed 13 games in the past two seasons. RBs tend not to get lots better once they are north of 30 years old and RBs over 30 with recent injury histories are very speculative investments. Maybe the Texans can get lucky here. I’ll give the Texans 6 wins this season. If Matt Schaub is the next coming of Brett Favre – a Falcon back-up QB that the Falcons allowed to get away and go on to stardom elsewhere – the Texans could break even for the year. I just don’t think that’s gonna happen.

AFC North:

This division has three teams who can reasonably harbor playoff aspirations and one team that would need visits by a sequence of fairy godmothers to break even for the year. Fans in Cincy, Pittsburgh and Baltimore can rationally expect their stalwarts to continue playing well into January 2008. Mathematically, that is possible; I just don’t think it will happen that way.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win this division by winning a tiebreaker. The Steelers have a new head coach and coaching staff for the first time since 1992. The Steelers have another new “thing” this year; for the first time ever, the team will have a mascot at the games. I used to root for Pittsburgh because they did not have one of those stupid mascots and now I root that ownership will come to its senses sometime this season and jettison this nonsense. There are two question marks for the Steelers on the field this year. The first is the offensive line, which was not dominant last year and did not add any superstars in the off-season. The second is pretty obvious: Will the Ben Roethlisberger of Super Bowl renown show up this year or will the Ben Roethlisberger of last year return again? I know that Roethlisberger had a freakish year last year with the motorcycle accident and then the appendectomy, but he looked significantly less competent last year than he had in years past. I’m betting that last year was the aberration in Big Ben’s career and that he’ll be back to what he was in the past. And I have high hopes for Santonio Holmes becoming a significant force as a WR starting this year. The defense is solid so if the offense plays as if it is from Lake Woebegone (slightly above average) that ought to get the Steelers 10 wins for the year.

The Baltimore Ravens are going to lose the division on the basis of a tiebreaker with the Steelers but they will make the playoffs as a wild card. The Ravens defense is fearsome as it always is even accounting for the departure of Adelius Thomas, but the offense is likely to let the team down as it did toward the end of last season and in the playoff loss to Indy. I like Steve McNair a lot, but I think his best performances are in his rear-view mirror. And it will surely be a shock to me if any of the WRs on this squad ever get a mention for prestigious honors like “Player of the Year” or anything like that. Even if you believe wholeheartedly in the adage that defense will win you championships, you still have to score TDs more than once in a while. Acquiring Willis McGahee to replace Jamal Lewis is a positive move for the running game because McGahee gives the Ravens more of a breakaway threat than they had with Lewis. Don’t misunderstand, I don’t think McGahee is one of the premier backs in the league; he’s not. But I think he’s better for the Ravens’ offense than Jamal Lewis was or would be this year. The defense will carry the Ravens wherever their fate will take them this year and the team will win 10 games and make the playoffs. After that, anything can happen…

The Cincinnati Bengals have more offensive firepower than anyone else in this division – and maybe more than 90% of the teams in the league. The problem in Cincy is the defense and particularly the defensive line. Competing in this division, you better be able to stop the run and that hasn’t been one of the long suits for the Bengals recently. I really don’t think any of their DTs are better than mediocre and that presents them with major problems in division games. That potent offense can’t do much if it is sitting on the sidelines checking out the photos of the defensive alignments from the last series. The defense ranked 30th in the league last year and it wasn’t all the fault of the defense against the run; the Cincy pass defenders ranked 31st in the NFL. A pre-season injury to OT Willie Anderson is not a good sign here; Carson Palmer needs protection; he’s not a scrambler. I’ll give the Bengals 9 wins for the year.

The Cleveland Browns aren’t very good but they seem to be headed in a positive direction. The question is whether or not they are so bad that Romeo Crennel will not survive long enough to see them achieve “competitive” status in the league. Remember, the Browns are a combined 10-22 under Crennel and they are 1-11 in divisional games under his tutelage. Those numbers are just plain miserable. The team is doing the right thing in trying to build through the draft but they have had buzzard-luck with regard to injuries in past years to draftees like Kellen Winslow II and free agent acquisition, LeCharles Bentley. They used this off-season to try to improve the offensive line drafting Joe Thomas at #3 overall and signing free agent guard Eric Steinbach. The Browns will probably want to run Jamal Lewis to shorten their games; if Lewis is poised to return to what he was a couple of years ago, that might work; if Lewis is on the downside of his career – as I suspect – then the Browns are going to have to throw the ball a lot and that is not something they are well prepared to do. The Browns had 4 QBs on the roster during training camp; none will strike fear in the hearts of rival defensive coordinators. The Browns have started four different QBs in the opening game of the last four seasons; that’s not a lot of stability at the QB position. The Browns do have a couple of bright spots on defense. Kamerion Wimbley doesn’t get the recognition he deserves as a pass rusher because he has played on a miserable team and safety Brodney Pool is very good. But the Browns will be up against it once again this year. Because I’m feeling an overflowing of the milk of human kindness, I’ll give them 5 wins this year. (My original estimate was only 4)

AFC East:

This division has one excellent team, one very good team and two mediocre-at-best teams. The excellent team and the very good team will make the playoffs while the others will take January off once again.

The New England Patriots went to the playoffs last year, had a lead on the Colts and then lost the game. So, some retooling was in order in New England but who knew what would happen? Did Patriots’ owner, Robert Kraft, suddenly morph into Danny Boy Snyder during the off-season? After two years of not winning the Super Bowl, Kraft opened up his wallet and went on a signing spree for veteran free agents. Not to worry, Patriots’ fans; Kraft has not lost his sensibilities such that he will become a meddlesome owner who thinks he knows a ton about football. His football folks just saw an opportunity to strengthen his team and he went along with their judgment. Four new WRs arrived to help out a passing game that saw Reche Caldwell lead the team in catches and yards last year. Randy Moss may not be the physical receiver he was five years ago and Randy Moss will likely be a pain-in-the-posterior at some time this season, but he’s better than what the Pats had last year. Donté Stallworth is a fine receiver but he tends to get hurt too much; ditto Kelley Washington. The addition of Wes Welker gives Tom Brady a solid possession receiver. On defense, no team in the league is so good that it could not find a starting spot for Adelius Thomas. The bad news for the Pats’ defense is that star DT, Richard Seymour is injured and on the “PUP” list (Physically Unable to Perform) and can’t play for the first six weeks. I think the Pats will win 12 games and the division this season.

The New York Jets were a huge surprise team last year but they won’t be surprising anyone this season. All of their opponents will know ahead of time that this is a good team. The Jets had the surprise factor last year combined with a “last place schedule” which they won’t have again this year. But the Jets are more talented this year and have a full year working with this coaching staff, so the team should not collapse this year. Is Eric Mangini really a genius or did he merely catch lightening in a bottle last year? The answer is “neither”; Mangini is a solid coach who seems to get the most from the talent at his disposal. Adding Thomas Jones to their running attack is a big help; Leon Washington isn’t a back who will be able to carry the ball 350 times a season but with Jones and Washington splitting the load, the Jets should be able to run the ball effectively. And that’s good because Chad Pennington is efficient at QB but not a transcendent talent. Last year he threw 16 INTs to go along with his 17 TDs; that’s not spectacular. The Jets’ run defense was not stout last year and that is the area that they have to improve in order to play this year’s tougher schedule. It says here they will do just that, win 10 games again this year, and make the playoffs.

The Buffalo Bills will go as far as JP Lossman can take them this year. And that’s not far enough to make – or even sniff – the playoffs. The Bills’ defense isn’t going to dominate opponents so Lossman will have to be very efficient with the team’s possession opportunities. Lossman has a big play receiver outside in the person of Lee Evans who had 6 receptions over 40 yards last year and almost 1300 yards receiving for the season. That’s an average of over 80 yards per game! The Bills spent big money to get free agent guard Derrick Dockery. In Dockery’s early years, he was soft and prone to penalties; and no one has ever accused him of being “fleet afoot”. Last year he lost weight, added strength and cut down on the penalties and he remained less than “fleet afoot”. The Bills have to hope that last year was a sign that Dockery finally got what he had to do to be a competent NFL lineman and not that he busted his hump only because it was a contract year and he wanted to fatten his wallet - - which he did with the Bills’ money. With Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker gone, the Bills will play two young linebackers (Keith Ellison and rookie Paul Posluzny). Posluzny comes with an endorsement from Jack Ham who said that Posluzny was the Penn State linebacker who was in the right place more of the time than any other Penn State linebacker ever was. And Jack Ham is a Penn State linebacker who went to the Pro Football Hall of Fame… I think the Bills will take a small step backward this year and win 6 games.

The Miami Dolphins won’t have Ricky Williams to run the ball this year or to create monumental distractions for the team. On balance, that works out to a small negative – assuming that Ronnie Brown is ready to be the #1 running back for all 16 games of the season. A key question for the Dolphins is which Ronnie Brown is the real one – the one who looked like Superman in 05 or the one who looked like mild-mannered Clark Kent in 06? Ricky Williams’ suspension status comes from him being – so to speak – one toke over the line. Cue whomever it was who sang that song about 40 years ago… Cam Cameron is the new coach in Miami and he is the third new coach in four seasons; that can’t be good. The defense in Miami is the foundation of the team and Cameron made a good move in retaining Dom Capers as the defensive coordinator; a little stability is a good thing. The issue is that the defensive unit is getting long in the tooth; Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and company have been around for a while and have been carrying the Dolphins for quite a number of years now. And the Dolphins major addition on the defense was aging Joey Porter who recorded only 5.5 sacks last year and that’s a real step down from his typical performance level. Has Father Time caught up with Joey Porter? At some point, the team has to stop putting such a huge burden on its defensive unit, but it doesn’t seem as if the Dolphins have the offensive weapons to change things up this year. I’ll give the Dolphins 5 wins this year.

In summary for the AFC, here is the playoff line-up:

San Diego - 12 wins - top seed via tiebreaker
Indy – 12 wins - #2 seed via tiebreaker
New England – 12 wins - #3 seed
Pittsburgh – 10 wins - #4 seed as division champ
NY Jets – 10 wins - #5 seed via tiebreaker
Baltimore – 10 wins - #6 seed

NFC West

This division has one pretty good team, two question mark teams and a perennially bad team. On a purely random basis, in a division of four teams each should enter the season at 3-1 odds to win the division. In this case, if you took the Seahawks out of the division and substituted the USC Trojans, I think USC would be 3-1 to win this division.

The Seattle Seahawks are the class of this division. It would take a tsunami of injuries to the Seahawks roster or a miraculous confluence of career years by a half-dozen players on any of the other teams in the division to keep the Seahawks from winning the division for the fourth consecutive season and going to the playoffs once again. They will need to learn to cross time zones to play their games; they play five of their games in the Eastern Time Zone. Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck missed ten games between them last year and the Seahawks made the playoffs comfortably. If they stay healthy this year and the offensive line is competent, the Seahawks should cruise again this year because their defense looks to have improved with off-season additions. Patrick Kerney is a pass rusher, who plays with energy and attitude; that should help the Seahawks defense, which has been steady but not much more recently. I like the Seahawks to win 10 games this year.

The San Francisco 49ers will continue to improve under Dick Nolan this year. The Niners added talent at wide receiver and they will have last year’s first round pick, Vernon Davis, on the field at tight end this year. I have to assume that Alex Smith will continue to improve with experience; I doubt he has hit the peak of his performance for his career. Frank Gore is a good running back but tends to get hurt and the backups in SF are hardly thoroughbreds. The key for the Niners will be the improvement of their defense. Adding Nate Clements to the DB will help a lot; Clements signed an $80M contract as a free agent in the off-season meaning the Niners overpaid for him, but Clements is a very good CB and the Niners need help there. They also signed safety Michael Lewis in the off-season; Lewis can help toughen the defense against the run but if offenses can isolate him in pass coverage frequently, he’ll be a liability. I really liked Patrick Willis as a linebacker coming out of college this year so he should help the Niners’ defense. I’ll give the Niners 8 wins this year.

The Arizona Cardinals seem to have a maturing offense in terms of the skill positions; their offensive line has been offensive only in its body odor for the past several years and the Cards fortunes will go as far as the offensive line improvements will take them. The fact that OT, Oliver Ross, sustained a training camp injury is not a good omen. The Cards will be able to score this year and they ought to do it with a controlled offense because there isn’t an over-abundance of speed anywhere on the offensive unit; don’t expect to see lots of 70-yard TDs from this squad. On defense, the Cardinals are ordinary and nothing more than that. If they find a way to confuse opponents with defensive alignments or coverages, the Cards could be the surprise Cinderella team of the year. I don’t think that’s going to happen. I’ll give the Cards 7 wins this year.

The St. Louis Rams are a strange team. They gave 30-year old QB, Marc Bulger, a $64M contract during the off-season. I like Bulger but for the life of me, I can’t figure out what made them think he is worth that kind of money now or how he will develop into being worth that kind of money in the next three to five years. And the Rams will try to milk one more year of productivity out of Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt at the WR position; both were really good players and neither is anything close to what they were at the top of their career. Adding Randy McMichael to play tight end will help but probably not enough. The Rams do have a potential superstar at RB in Stephen Jackson. But the Rams don’t have enough offense to win a bundle of “shootout” games and they don’t have the defense to keep opponents “in the teens” very often. The big move on defense is to shift Adam Carriker inside to DT; Carriker is now over 300 lbs and the Rams want him to be the “run stopper” they desperately need. If he isn’t, then I don’t see anyone else on the roster who might be. I am underwhelmed by the Rams this year on the field and on the sidelines. I know they are very tough to beat at home, but I think this team has too many missing ingredients. I’ll give the Rams 5 wins this year.

NFC South:

This division has one team that was the sentimental favorite of the nation last year, a team that severely underachieved last year, a team that just plain stunk last year and a team that starts this year without its franchise player.

The New Orleans Saints would have been the feelgood story of 2006 even if they had not won their division and gone to the NFC title game. Their return to New Orleans in the midst of that city’s reconstruction was a PR flack’s dream. But the Saints turned out to be a really exciting team; they won games by outscoring their opponents not by stifling their opponents’ offense. I’ve read in a few places that some people think that last year’s success was due in the main to the emotion surrounding the team; I think that the talent on the field had just a bit to do with all of that. Drew Brees and Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are for real. Marques Colston snuck up on folks last year as a seventh round draft pick from Hofstra and he won’t be doing any of that this year. Defenses will focus on slowing him down; he’ll need to respond to that new level of focus on his game. The Saints’ defense was porous last year and in the off-season, they went out and signed Jason David and Kevin Kaesvisharn to make things better back there. Sean Payton did a find job last year, it would be unrealistic to expect him to repeat a 13-win season again, but he’s also not going to allow the Saints to slip back into the muck and mire where they had resided for many years before last year. Unless the defense really crumbles, the Saints will win the division and 11 games.

The Carolina Panthers underachieved last year – or did they? Jake Delhomme was up and down last year – but in reality, that’s what he’s been for most all of his career. Now they have David Carr on the bench for times when Delhomme is just stinking out the joint, which he’s probably going to do at least twice this year. Having David Carr there instead of Chris Wenke has to make the coaching staff feel a bit more secure. The Panthers’ OL had lots of injury problems last year so things might get better there if they only have half the number of OL injuries this year. Speaking of “injury-prone”, RB, DeShaun Foster is the poster child for that condition. The Saints need DeAngelo Williams to be their main RB this year and to use Foster only in spot duty to keep him healthy. I don’t think that the Panthers will catch the Saints and win this division unless the Saints go in the tank and hand the division to the Panthers. I’ll give the Panthers 8 wins this year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were just plain awful last year and I have a feeling that Jon Gruden doesn’t want to take a chance on keeping his job if the Bucs soil themselves again this season. The Bucs were bad at QB last year and Gruden has been interested in just about any QB that might have been available during the off-season including Jake Plummer who retired. He brought in Jeff Garcia to be the QB and that makes sense. Garcia’s success was in SF with the West Coast offense and then again last year in Philly (in relief of injured Donovan McNabb) with the West Coast offense. He knows this kind of system and has had success in it in the past. Running Back Cadillac Williams went from rookie sensation two years ago to journeyman back last year. Maybe that was because the Bucs QBs scared exactly no one? We’ll see this year. The Bucs added Luke Pettigout to their OL and drafted Gaines Adams to be their new pass-rushing demon. Much of the rest of the defense is aging however and aging defenses may go around the bend all together without a lot of prior notice. The Bucs will be better than last year but not nearly sufficiently better to win this division. But I will give them 6 wins this year.

The Atlanta Falcons will have to ride Joey Harrington to whatever glory he can deliver to them. Make no mistake, I like Joey Harrington because he is not your typical jock; but Joey Harrington is at best a mediocre NFL QB. Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are not hugely talented at WR and you have the ingredients for a team that won’t score a lot – even in new coach, Bobby Petrino’s high-octane system. If that is the case, the Falcons are in real trouble because their defense is not all that good; last year the Falcons ranked 29th in pass defense in the NFL and the defensive additions are not eye-popping. Michael Vick’s indictment/guilty plea put this team in a hole they will not dig out from anytime this year. If Ricky Williams’ suspension put him one toke over the line, then Michael Vick has to be wondering who let the dogs out. The Falcons should start planning a rebuilding starting in 2008. For this year, I’ll give the Falcons 4 wins and suggest that the coaching staff start analyzing next year’s draft immediately because the Falcons will be on the clock.

NFC North:

This division has a clear-cut winner, two mysterious teams and a clear-cut loser. The best defense in the division is on the clear-cut winner; that’s not a surprise. Interestingly, the second best defense by quite a bit is on the clear-cut loser.

The Chicago Bears will win this division comfortably absent a thoroughly vindictive intervention by the football gods. That is not to say that the Bears have handled with grace and aplomb the aftermath of their successful season last year. For mysterious reasons, they traded RB, Thomas Jones to the Jets and feuded with LB, Lance Briggs. Still, they are the class of the division. Several players will be under a microscope including Lance Briggs who swore he would never play another down in a Bears’ uniform and Cedric Benson who seemed not to share RB duties with Thomas Jones very well. Rex Grossman will draw ire every time he fumbles a snap from center; can you imagine if he fumbled one in a “kneel-down situation” in a one-score game? And then there is Adam Archuletta who bombed with the Redskins and is now back with Lovie Smith in the system where he flourished. Is he a “system guy” or is he finished? Devin Hester will be a marked man on special teams; he will be hard-pressed to duplicate his six return TDs number from a year ago. Having said all that, the Bears will cruise to the division championship for lots of football reasons including the fact that they have 6 games against the rest of this division and that should provide 5 victories – and maybe 6 – to get the ball rolling. I’ll give the Bears 12 wins for the year.

The Detroit Lions will become a respectable team after lots of twist and turns along the path marked out by Matt Millen. I am not buying even for a minute the idea put forth by Jon Kitna that the Lions are a mortal lock to win at least 10 games this season and maybe as many as 13. That’s just not going to happen. Nevertheless, the Lions will be better than last year and fans in Detroit should be treated to entertaining and high scoring games. Mike Martz will be designing the plays and overseeing the offense; he can put a three WR set out there consisting of Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and Calvin Johnson. That ought to give him goose bumps; also, it ought to give opposing defensive coordinators the willies. Jon Kitna threw for more than 4000 yards last year and now adds Calvin Johnson to his options. If Kevin Jones can get healthy and provide steady running to the mix, the Lions should score loads of points; if Jones can’t go, the Lions can make do with TJ Duckett and Tatum Bell back there. What will haunt the Lions is their defense and it is going to take two huge seasons by both inside DTs, Shaun Rogers and Cory Redding, to step the defense up to the level of “not embarrassing”. The loss of Dré Bly will hurt the Lions; Stanley Wilson replaces Bly on the roster but isn’t nearly the cover corner that Bly is. Lions’ fans need to fend off euphoria that might get them thinking playoffs because that’s not going to happen. But the Lions can win 7 games this year.

The Green Bay Packers are a mystery team. Brett Favre is at the helm of a bunch of youngsters on offense; scoring points may be difficult for this team. The Packers’ defense is strong with some top-shelf players such as AJ Hawk, Nick Barnett, Charles Woodsen, Al Harris and Nick Collins as foundation pieces. But the defense isn’t strong enough to carry the team to the playoffs – or even to a break-even record – if the offense doesn’t score. When the Packers went on a tear in December last year and won their last 4 games to finish the season at .500, many people thought that was a sign of a breakout year this season. But the Pack beat three teams with losing records and then beat the Bears in the season finale when all the Bears wanted to do was avoid injuries and get on with their bye week in the playoffs. I say the Packers will win 7 games this season.

The Minnesota Vikings are not a good football team. They have Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger as the QB tandem; add them both together and double the result and you have a decent NFL QB for 2007. That’s not good news. Jackson seems confused and confabulated on the field and seems to be trying to make plays work solely with his physical skill; that rarely works at the NFL level. Bollinger is the mirror image of Jackson; he’s collected and aware out there on the field but does not have the arm or legs to become a dominant passer. Here’s more “not good news” for the offense; the wide receiving corps is about as well recognized as that new guy in the neighborhood who is actually in the witness protection program. The only good news on offense is that Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson make up a very good RB tandem and the left side of the OL with Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie playing shoulder-to-shoulder is very solid. But teams are going to gang up to stop the run and dare the Vikings to beat them by throwing the ball. I don’t think they can do that. The Vikes’ defense was good last year and ought to be improved this year because they add last year’s first round draft pick, Chad Greenway, who never made the field due to injury last year. I’ll give the Vikings 4 wins this year and the second overall pick in next year’s draft. Charlie Walters quoted Vikes’ owner Zygi Wilf in yesterday’s St. Paul Pioneer-Press saying that he [Wilf] expect the Vikes “to challenge for the division championship.” That leads to the question:

Should the NFL test the owners for drugs too?

NFC East

The NFC East should be a tight race this year. Any or all of the teams could rise up and have a big year; any or all of the teams could falter; most likely, all of the teams will cluster together near the .500 level.

The Philadelphia Eagles will win the division on a tiebreaker. Now that Jeff Garcia has moved on, Kelly Holcumb has been traded and AJ Feeley broke his hand, it looks as if Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb will have to hold down the fort. The key for the Eagles is keeping McNabb on the field along with Brian Westbrook. If that happens, the Eagles will be just fine; if they both go down, then the Eagles season will come unraveled in no time flat. The Eagles also need to shore up their run defense and they added Montae Reagor and Takeo Spikes to do that. In addition, the team needs last year’s first round pick, DT Broderick Bunkley, to play like a top pick and not like a guy who was loading trucks six weeks ago. I think WR Reggie Brown is ready to establish himself as a very good NFL WR; the addition of Kevin Curtis should help the passing game too; if Jason Avent blossoms, the Eagles will have a respectable trio of WRs for the first time in a very long time. Jevon Kearse returns from injury but the question is whether he is still “The Freak” or if he is now “Just A Guy”. Cutting Jeremiah Trotter shocked lots of people but the fact is that Trotter was never great in pass coverage and had become a real liability in that facet of the game. Ignoring down and distance, the best play for an opponent to call with Trotter on the field is one that forced him to cover a running back; when that happened, nothing good happened for the Eagles. Keep an eye on S, Brian Dawkins. He will be 34 years old in mid-season and that is an age where defensive backs can go around the bend very quickly. Dawkins was still an elite safety at the end of last year and may still be one for another year or so, but when his skills start to show wear and tear, look for declining production quickly. I’ll give the Eagles 9 wins and the division championship in a tiebreaker.

The Dallas Cowboys will lose that tiebreaker to the Eagles. I’m not sold on Tony Romo and it has nothing to do with any inability on his part to overcome the infamous fumbled snap from center in the playoffs last year. I think he’s a decent rookie QB and nothing more at this stage. I like Jason Witten at tight end; I think he is an undervalued asset on that team. The Cowboys spent a lot of money to sign Leonard Davis away from the Cards to play OL for them. Going shopping on the Cards’ roster for offensive linemen is almost an act of desperation. Leonard Davis is huge; he’s so big that his butt is its own zip code. They’ve moved him from tackle to guard and that suggests to me that they won’t be running Vince Lombardi’s power sweep too many times this year. Getting Davis out in front of that play might be difficult because water flows uphill faster than he runs. And of course, the Cowboys’ offense will have to handle Terrell Owens in his second year in town. The good behavior honeymoon is over and a laid-back players’ coach like Wade Phillips may be all Owens needs to zoom into orbit at any random moment. On defense, the Cowboys seem to have no worries at all – except for a nagging foot/ankle injury to CB Terrence Newman. The Cowboys will win 9 games and make the playoffs as the #1 wild card team.

The Washington Redskins will improve on their shameful and prideless 5-11 finish last year; they will break even for the season. In order to do that, the Redskins defense with its anointed genius leader, Gregg Williams, has to finish a lot better statistically than it did last year. The Skins had all of 12 turnovers all last year; that was last in the league; that cannot happen again this year. The Skins had all of 19 sacks all last year; that was last in the league; that cannot happen again this year. The Redskins drafted a safety high in the first round again this year. That puts LaRon Landry back there with Sean Taylor. Hopefully, Landry’s ability can allow Taylor to focus on playing his own position and everyone else’s. Sean Taylor is a physical talent of immense proportion but his productivity on the field is below average because he is out of position more times than not. Acquiring London Fletcher-Baker will help that defense too. On offense, the Skins need a large improvement from QB Jason Campbell and he certainly seems capable of doing that. However, they also need a large improvement from their entire WR corps – Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle-El. That may be more problematic since Moss is injury prone and inconsistent; Lloyd is a chronic underachiever and Randle-El is the same player now that he was 5 years ago. Chris Cooley is a force at tight end and the Skins have a more than adequate tandem of running backs. I think Ladell Betts is the best “back-up” running back in the NFL at the moment. I think the Redskins will win 8 games this season.

The New York Giants could win this division – but they won’t. The Giants finished out the 2006 season with a pathetic 2-7 run. When Tiki Barber retired and took his 2100+ yards of offense with him, the team went out and signed Reuben Droughns who is a decent RB but is the same style of RB as the “other guy” on the squad Brandon Jacobs. There’s not a lot of “change of pace” here. On defense, the Giants lost three linebackers and a cornerback and DE Michael Strahan hemmed and hawed about his retirement options until training camp was over so he did not have to participate in all those practice sessions. Oh, swell. And then there are the questions related to the development of Eli Manning at QB and how constructively the fierceness of Tom Coughlin will work with this squad. It seems as if Coughlin has no “off” button and his volume control is always set at “highest”. After a while, that ceases to be a productive way to lead a team. I think the Giants will win 7 games this year.

In summary for the NFC, here’s the playoff lineup:

Chicago – 12 wins - #1 seed
New Orleans – 11 wins - #2 seed
Seattle – 10 wins - #3 seed
Philly – 9 wins - #4 seed as division winner via tiebreaker
Dallas – 9 wins - #5 seed as division loser via tiebreaker
SF – 8 wins #6 seed as wild card via tiebreaker based on strength of schedule.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it - - at least until next January when I’ll be back to give myself grades on all these picks once the season is over.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………