July 24, 2007
NFL Off-Season Moves
Every team in the NFL has “re-tooled” for the upcoming 2007 season. To go through all 32 teams and to comment on the implications of whatever moves they have made would be a longer document than I really want to write - - and certainly too long a document for you to want to read. So, let me focus on the moves made by the teams who were at or near the top of the NFL food chain and those at or near the bottom of the food chain and see if what they have done portends any great change in the upcoming season. I’ll start in the AFC…
The Indy Colts were at the top of the food chain in the NFL last year and since winning the Super Bowl, they have lost seven players including starters on that championship team. For the record, that’s not good. The Colts did not add seven quality NFL players via free agency so one would have to believe that they might not be as strong this year as last. But the Colts’ coaching staff has shown the ability to mold a team out of individuals and the Colts still do have the Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne axis to build on. Anyone who thinks the Colts will take a nosedive this year is betting on the injury bug to hit the team, but they should not be as strong as they were last year.
The San Diego Chargers won more games in the regular season last year than any other team. Their key players are back; their entire coaching staff is not. Norv Turner brings loads of “potential” as a head coach to the Chargers but as I always try to remind you, “potential” means you haven’t accomplished anything yet. Expecting the Chargers to surpass last year’s 14-win total for the regular season would have been unrealistic even if there had been no coaching changes. The Chargers ought to be awfully good this year no matter who is on the sidelines wearing the headsets.
Somehow, the New England Patriots were a very good team last year even though their #1 receiver was Reche Caldwell (gaining all of 761 yards). The Pats rolled the dice hoping that Randy Moss’ receiving skills had not gone down the drain in Oakland but that he was unmotivated there. I think they took less of a chance signing Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker to play wide receiver; those guys will never be what Moss was four or five years ago, but they can both play well. The Pats should be real good again this year.
It seems as if the Denver Broncos tried to corner the market on defensive linemen during this off-season by means of free-agent signings and the draft. That is probably in response to the fact that the Broncos’ defensive line was pretty mediocre last year. In addition, Denver signed Dre Bly to play opposite Champ Bailey at CB and added Travis Henry and Daniel Graham to their offensive arsenal; all three of these guys should help. But the Broncos’ level of success next season probably rests on a move made in the middle of last season. Jay Cutler will be the QB. This is only his second year in the league and he really did seem overwhelmed some of the time last year. The real question for the Broncos this year is whether or not that half-year of experience for Cutler in 2006 can jump-start his offensive prowess for 2007. If so, the Broncos will be contenders for the Super Bowl; if not, they’ll be hugely disappointing to fans and disappointed as a team.
Over in the NFC at the top of the food chain, we have the Chicago Bears who dominated their division and the conference last year. Somewhat like the Colts, they have not had a very positive off-season – and I’m not even hinting at the muck and mire created by the Tank Johnson business. The Bears traded Thomas Jones; all he gave them was a rushing total over 1000 yards last year; they didn’t get a Pro-Bowl caliber player in return. Lance Briggs has said he will never play another down for the Bears – although that is probably as much bombast as it is a statement of principle. Other players have expressed a real desire to leave town even though the Bears were in the Super Bowl last year. The Bears got six TDs last year from the return game thanks to Devin Hester; he’s back but it’s asking an awful lot of him to expect that he can produce those kinds of points in the return game every year. The Super Bowl loser has not tended to do well in the subsequent season and I don’t think the Bears’ off-season moves point to a reversal of that trend. But they are in a weak division and should dominate it again this year and be back in the playoffs.
The New Orleans Saints provided the “tug-at-the-heartstrings story” for 2006. The team has been relatively quiet in the off-season so we should see if last year’s success was driven by the emotion of “returning home” after a year of exile due to Hurricane Katrina or if this is a team whose overall talent level is not yet widely recognized.
The Philadelphia Eagles were another of last season’s “last to first” stories winning the NFC East after finishing dead last in that division in 2005. And they did that with Donovan McNabb missing half the year – again. The team still lacks a game-breaking wide receiver but the only player of that type they have had in the past decade was Terrell Owens and they surely don’t want to go down that path again. Losing Donte Stallworth in free agency was not a positive move for the team. But they did add to their defensive front seven (Takeo Spikes, Monte Reagor and Ian Scott) and should be better against the run this year and that’s a very good thing. It will also help if Javon Kearse stays healthy this year and can regain most or all of his All-Pro form.
The Seattle Seahawks were the class of the NFC West last year despite injuries to Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck. Alexander has a lot of mileage on his tread but when healthy he is still a premier running back. The Seahawks needed help with rushing the passer so they signed Patrick Kerney; that was a good idea. And losing Jerramy Stevens was also a good idea - - the old addition by subtraction concept.
If we go to the bottom of the food chain in the AFC, the only place to begin is with the Oakland Raiders. To call their season in 2006 a train wreck would be to compliment it. On paper, the Raiders seem to have recognized their glaring need and seem to have taken steps to correct it. Their offense stunk; there’s no polite way to say it. So they did sign free agent Travis Taylor to play WR this year. They also acquired Dominic Rhodes to help out in the running game but he will miss the first 25% of the season with a suspension for running afoul of the substance abuse policy. Even with Roger Goodell as the “new sheriff in town”, this is not a heavy-handed suspension. The substance abuse policy is negotiated into the CBA and getting a 4-game suspension means the player has to have had multiple infractions here. And of course, the Raiders took JaMarcus Russell with the overall #1 pick in the draft - - but he hasn’t signed a contract yet so it is problematic as to whether or not he will be ready to play QB in the opening game. Like I said, it looks as if the Raiders addressed their problems on paper, but not necessarily on the field.
The Houston Texans made one very large move in the off-season. This team traded away David Carr whose performance in Houston was not spectacular by any means. They replaced him by acquiring Matt Schaub from Atlanta who has started all of two games in the NFL and he lost both of them. I am of the opinion that Carr was not solely the cause of the Texans’ offensive woes; his offensive line was horrid and there was no running game to speak of last season. So, I don’t think the Texans are poised to leapfrog over two dozen teams in the league to become one of the elite teams any time soon.
While the Raiders were the worst offensive team in the NFL last year, the Cleveland Browns were the worst rushing team in the NFL. Give the Browns credit for seeing the problem and trying to resolve it. They signed guard, Eric Steinbach, as a free agent and drafted tackle, Joe Thomas, at #3 in the draft. Assuming that they sign Thomas – they haven’t as of this moment – and he lives up to 80% of his press clippings, they will have added two quality blockers to the offensive front. That never hurt a running game. They also signed RB, Jamaal Lewis; he has had some spectacular seasons and some very disappointing ones. Pardon me if I’m skeptical about how fiery he’ll be this year with that signing bonus giving him a fat wallet to sit on. We’ll see. Oh, yeah, the Browns also drafted Brady Quinn to play QB for them - - but they haven’t signed him either.
Among the bottom feeders in the NFC, the Vikings acquisition of RB, Adrian Peterson, via the draft should be a big help to a team that will need to be able to move the ball on the ground to be successful. The Vikes will go with Tarvaris Jackson at QB; even though I did not see him play all that much last season, it would be very generous of me to say that he played fluidly or confidently or instinctively or successfully. If the Vikes can’t run and have to rely on Tarvaris Jackson to win games for them in a one-dimensional offense, it might look like the team brought an NFL Europe offensive unit with them to the stadium. Peterson and the rest of the running attack look to be the key to whatever success will accrue in Minnesota this year.
Detroit Lions QB, Jon Kitna, said he was certain the Lions would win at least 10 games this year. I thought for sure that would put him on the list for random and repeated drug testing by the league since that seemed to me prima facie evidence of a potential violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Whatever. The Lions drafted Calvin Johnson who is the latest of their “can’t miss” wide receivers. If indeed he “can’t miss” then the Lions ought to be able to score with Mike Martz calling the plays – and assuming that Jon Kitna really isn’t hallucinating out there on the field. The Lions defense needed help last year; they were in danger of losing DT Cory Redding but found a way to sign him to a long term deal. They ought to be better in 07 than they were in 06 but that ain’t saying much.
The Arizona Cardinals changed coaching staffs. I’ve always thought Dennis Greene was a good talent evaluator and drafter but an underachiever as a coach. Well now the team has Greene’s talent with a coaching staff that comes from the Pittsburgh Steeler tradition of getting the most out of the talent on the squad. The Cards lost only one free agent (OT, Leonard Davis) and they moved to replace him by taking OT Levi Brown in the first round of the draft. Davis got a huge contract in Dallas and motivation has always been the big question for him; the Cards probably didn’t want him at the price he could command and made an early decision in the matter. Matt Leinart seems to be the real deal as a QB and he has two Pro-Bowl caliber wide receivers to throw to (Boldin and Fitzgerald). Edgerrin James has been a huge disappointment since he arrived in Arizona; some say that he’s at the end of his useful life as a RB. If he has a good season left in him, then the Cards’ offense might rise above the level of moribund – where they have resided for a while now – in 2007.
If you didn’t see a comment on your favorite team here, just wait until training camp is about over and I do my Pre-Season analysis for every team in the league. And look at it from a positive perspective - - if your team isn’t in here, I didn’t include it as one of the bottom feeders on the food chain in either conference.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…
