The Sports Curmudgeon

Last week was not a good one for Mythical Picks. I have tried to warn those of you who are of the wagering persuasion that late season games in the NFL are only slightly more amenable to rational handicapping than opening day games in the NFL. Some examples:

I took Dallas over Philly. Who knew that Dallas would not be able to run and control the ball against an Eagle defense that had been pushed around for the last month-and-a-half? Who knew Dallas would forget how to stop the run against a mediocre rushing team and give up over 200 yards rushing?

I took Indy over Houston. Who knew that Indy would find a way not to score in the 40s against the Texans?

I took SF over Arizona. Who knew that SF would gag when they had a shot at a division championship staring them in the face?

The final tally for last week was 6-11-1. That generated a Mythical Loss of $610. That’s not very good.

The season totals are 133-124-4. That gives a Mythical Deficit for the year of $220. This is a good time to point out the effect of the vigorish to everyone. Note that I have been right more than I have been wrong this year; and still, I’d be behind if I had actually made all of these wagers. And since I mentioned the phrase “made all of these wagers”, let me reiterate yet again that it would be folly for anyone to wager on each and every NFL game. The secret to having a winning season at the sportsbook is to pick your spots carefully and to ignore totally any game you don’t think you understand. At this time of year, those kinds of inscrutable games abound.

Naturally, no one would take any information herein and use it as the basis for making a wager or deciding what side to back in a wager that involved actual money. Anyone doing that would be dumb - - so dumb that the vacuum between his ears would be all that kept his guts from falling out of his ass.

There are a few good games this weekend from the perspective that they involve teams who should be playing hard to make it into the playoffs. Sadly, they don’t tend to play one another so you have to guess what the opponent may or may not do in terms of showing up. And then there is one game that is sufficiently putrid that the NFL should do its fans a favor and decide the outcome with the toss of a coin. It doesn’t matter; the teams don’t matter; the game will stink. I think you’ll be able to pick out which one I mean.

(Sat Nite) Giants – 3 at Washington (43.5): Because of the playoff stakes involved in this game, it might be the game of the week; the only problem is that both teams stink. If I’ve done my tiebreaker analysis correctly, the Giants are in the playoffs if they win here. Of course, these are the Giants who have lost six of their last seven games so even facing a less than mediocre foe should not make them supremely confident. The Giants’ passing game has been in-and-out for much of this season and it was certainly “out” last week. This week they get to face a Redskins’ secondary missing its best cornerback and coverage guy (by a large margin) and a pair of safeties who cannot cover and don’t tackle all that well. Just in case any Redskins’ fans want to tell you about all the “big hitters” they have on defense, remind them that the Redskins are dead last in the NFL in yardage allowed per play and rank 30th in the league in yards per game given up. All of this ought to matter, but the Giants have not shown that they can take advantage of mismatches for about two months now. I don’t know if Tom Coughlin’s job is on the line here but it ought to be. I’m virtually certain that Joe Gibbs’ job is not on the line here but it too ought to be. I’m going to contemplate an error-filled game on offense by both sides and take this game UNDER. But to show you the confidence level I have in that selection, let me say that a final score of 34-31 [either way] would not be out of the question.

Buffalo at Baltimore – 9 (34): Buffalo is out of the playoff race thanks to the fact that they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week against Tennessee. Now they go on the road where they are far less successful and take on a Ravens’ team that can get home field throughout the playoffs if they can win here and if San Diego loses later in the day. But is that enough to lay more than a TD in a season finale? Here’s the reason it might make sense. The Bills need a balanced offense to win because JP Losman just isn’t up to carrying the team on his own to victory against a 12-3 NFL team. The problem here is that the Ravens have the best rush defense in the AFC and the second-best rush defense in the NFL which would seem to put that burden squarely on Losman’s shoulders. My guess is that he caves in under this burden. I’ll take the Ravens to win and cover here.

Pittsburgh at Cincy – 6 (43.5): When the Steelers wet the bed against the Ravens last week, they were eliminated from the playoffs; the best these defending Super Bowl Champions can do is to win here and finish at 8-8 for the year. I’m not sure that’s a message that will sell all that well in their locker room. And even though Ben Roethlisberger has not been nearly his “super-self” this year, the Steelers just have to want him at QB more than Charlie Batch. But Roethlisberger was injured again last week and you have to wonder if the Steelers will run the risk of throwing him out there in a meaningless game. Meanwhile the Bengals have not been “tearing it up” for the last 6-8 weeks either. I’m going to hope that the Bengals at home play as seriously here as they did in Denver last weekend – losing at the end due to a muffed snap from center on a PAT – and that they produce 24-30 points of offense. That total will be enough for them to win and cover; that’s why I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover here - - for Mythical Purposes only!

Detroit at Dallas – 13 (43.5): The Cowboys soiled themselves last week against Philly. The Lions have been soiling themselves just about every weekend for the last decade. Dallas will do scoreboard watching to see if they have any reason to play hard here; if the Eagles are beating up on the Falcons, then the Cowboys will be the fifth seed in the NFC no matter what else happens. The Lions haven’t had a real reason to play since Columbus Day. Here’s a game to ignore even if you are in Las Vegas sitting in a comfy sportsbook watching multiple big-screens and being served free drinks by lovely young ladies. For mythical purposes only, I’ll take the Lions with the points here because this line looks awfully fat. And for even more mythical purposes, I’ll take the game OVER.

Cleveland at Houston – 4 (37.5): On a tour of the palace at Versailles, the docent leading my tour told me that King Louis XIV only took two baths in his entire lifetime. You could probably conclude from that statement that he stunk up the joint but I’m sure no one bothered to mention that little detail to the king. Well, he would have been an aromatic flower garden compared to the stench that will emanate from this game. Let me inform the NFL and the TV networks and the companies paying money to advertise their products and services on the telecast of this game that this game STINKS! These are two really bad teams that need lots and lots of improvement to make it up to the level of “not totally incompetent”. Neither team has any reason to play hard; neither team would perform all that much better if it actually did play hard. Make this a venue call since the Texans have won three times at home this year. And the Browns are down to their third string QB – Ken Dorsey – for this struggle. Loser gets the shorter press conference and so they can get on the road to their vacation destinations fastest. I’ll take the Texans to win and cover here - - for Mythical Purposes only!

Miami at Indy – 9 (42): The Dolphins have gagged away two straight games that they needed to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Even though Joe Theismann on MNF tried to make it seem as if substitute QB, Cleo Lane, could give the Dolphins a shot in the arm, it turns out that all he provided was a giant laxative so the team could leave a steamy dump at midfield for their fans in their final home game. And on Christmas night too. Now these Dolphins go on the road after a short week to play an Indy team that has a shot at the #2 seed in the AFC if the Ravens can find a way to lose to Buffalo. Here’s the angle on the game. Ronnie Brown came back last week after breaking his hand in the Thanksgiving Day game and he ran pretty well against the Jets’ defense. I’m not trying to make the Jets’ defense sound like the old Cowboys “Doomsday Defense” but the Jets are tougher to run on than the Colts. So, I’ll take the miserable Dolphins here with the points because (a) it’s a lot of points, (b) the game doesn’t mean anything and so there’s no real pressure on the Dolphins and (c) I think Ronnie Brown and Sammie Morris will gain at least 150 yards on the ground here.

Jax at KC – 3.5 (37): This too could be the game of the week because both teams are alive for the playoffs. The loser is out so the game is meaningful until the final whistle. The winner will need lots of help to get in but at least both of them will still be alive when they toss the coin at the beginning of the game. Jax is not all that good on the road and KC is much tougher at home than on the road. The venue screams out to pick the Chiefs. The oddsmakers see this as a low scoring game but I don’t think that has to be the case; so, I’ll take the game OVER this meager number – for Mythical Purposes only!

St Louis – 2 at Minnesota (43): The Rams are 7-8 and if my calculations are correct, the only way for them to get into the playoffs is for them to win here and for the Giants, Packers, Panthers and Falcons all to lose. Not bloody likely. Rookie QB, Tavaris Jackson, was horrid last week for the Vikes; he completed 10 passes for 50 yards. Because he’ll be in there again, I can’t play this game OVER even though that is my initial inclination; Jackson might not put 13 points up even against a miserable Rams’ defense. But I think the Rams can score on the Vikes and so I’ll take the Rams to win and cover - - even though they don’t play nearly as well on the road as they do at home. But remember, the Rams may well be eliminated by the time of the kickoff and so whatever motivation I might like to believe might accompany them to the field may have evaporated. This is a game to watch and not to wager on for actual money.

Carolina – 3 at New Orleans (36): The Saints have wrapped up the #2 seed in the NFC. They have no interest in the outcome of this game. Carolina is still in the race for the final NFC playoff spot; they need to win here and get some help from the Redskins and the Bears. That’s why the Panthers are favored in this game on the road against a better team. But I wonder what the inspirational rallying point could be for the Panthers. Win here and break even for the 2006 season? I’ll take this game OVER - - for Mythical Purposes only!

Oakland at Jets – 12.5 (35): The sign in the Jets’ locker room should be, “Win and You’re In”. For the Raiders, it’s going to be a 3000-mile flight home after a dismal season no matter what happens on Sunday. The Jets offense is marginal; meanwhile, the only part of the Raiders team that does not conjure up abject disgust is the defense; the defense is merely poor. I want this game UNDER because I will not be shocked for the game to end 10-6 or 16-9 at the most.

Atlanta at Philly – 8 (43): Before the season started, I said in my Pre-Season Analysis piece that the winner of this game on 12/31 would be the sixth wild card entry in the playoffs. That could still be true if Atlanta wins here. The Eagles have clinched a playoff spot and cannot get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. So, their only motivation will be to assure themselves of a home field game in the first round of the playoffs. I don’t know if Jim Mora is in danger of losing his job here, but given how the Falcons have laid down and gone paws up in a few games in the past six weeks, he should have his job on the line. Hell, the Falcons lost to Chris Weinke as a starting QB last week and that brings his NFL record as a starter to 2-17. That should be embarrassing to the max. In reality, the actual “problem” for the Falcons is that they have invested a HUGE amount of salary cap money in Michael Vick and he isn’t worth anything near his cap number. But you don’t fire the players; you fire the coach. I don’t think the Eagles’ minimalist motivation factor translates into a spread this big. I’ll take the Falcons with the points here.

Seattle at Tampa Bay – 3 (36): Seattle has nothing to play for here other than avoiding the ignominy of a fourth consecutive loss. They are the NFC West champs and will host a wild card team (still TBD) at Qwest Field next week. I’ll be surprised if the Seahawks don’t yawn during pre-game warm ups. Tampa is a miserable team who has risen to the level of “not totally horrible” with Tim Rattay as their QB. He’ll be there on Sunday. Is Jon Gruden on a hot seat in Tampa? He may be but it certainly isn’t his fault that starting QB Chris Simms had to miss the year with a splenectomy back in September. I’ll assume that Seattle goes sleepwalking through this game and so I’ll take the Bucs to win and cover at home in a truly meaningless game - - for Mythical Purposes only!

New England at Tennessee – 3 (42.5): The Pats are in the playoffs; Tennessee can still get there with a win here and a lot of help in other games this weekend. [Remember, the Titans started out 0-5 this season and still have a playoff shot on the final weekend of the year; if that doesn’t get Jeff Fisher at least a few Coach of the Year votes, then they should stop giving out that award.] The Pats might move ahead of the Colts in the seeding but there isn’t a realistic chance that the Pats could get a bye in the playoffs, so their motivation is suspect at best. Tennessee has been a force to be reckoned with since Vince Young took over as the starting QB and that winning tradition can certainly extend to and through a game against a team that really shouldn’t give a rat’s ass about the outcome. That’s why the Titans are favored. I see this spread as a way to get trapped and so I’ll take the game OVER on the assumption that neither defensive unit will be busting its butt to the max.

SF at Denver – 11 (41): This game is not as meaningless as some others since Denver needs a win to assure themselves of a playoff spot. SF eliminated themselves last week when they lost to the Cardinals in SF. If Denver wins, they are in the playoffs as the #5 seed in the AFC; they could still make the playoffs with a loss but it might get very dicey under those circumstances. I don’t doubt that Denver is a better team than SF at the moment even with rookie Jay Cutler under center. What I can’t deal with is this big a line in a game at this time of the year when the Broncos only need to win. I’ll take the 49ers with the very generous helping of points here.

Arizona at San Diego – 13.5 (44.5): San Diego has clinched a first round bye in the playoffs; they are playing to hold home field advantage in the playoffs. Arizona is out of the playoffs – surprise, surprise! – and they are playing for whatever reasons they would like to conjure up. If the Chargers win here, that will make them 8-0 at home for the 2006 season and I don’t think the Chargers have ever won all of their home games in a single season before this. Arizona has nothing to play for save pride – which is sort of the way they have finished up almost every season for the last 50 years. This leads me to conclude that this should be a high scoring game where the defenses just don’t get in the way of the offenses all that much. I like this game OVER.

Green Bay at Chicago – 3.5 (36): This is the longest running rivalry in the NFL; the teams meet for the 172nd time this weekend. Historically, this game means something but this weekend …? Green Bay has playoff aspirations even though the chances aren’t great. Chicago has sewn up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Bears don’t care about this game and the Bears’ defense has not been “lights out” for the last several weeks. Green Bay stifled the Vikings last week, but that was against Tavaris Jackson at QB and not Brett Favre. I see this as a low scoring game and so I will take the Packers with more than a field goal’s worth of points.

Good luck if you are betting this week. You’ll need it.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…