The Sports Curmudgeon

Well, I dodged a mythical bullet last weekend and actually came out ahead for a weekend where the games were mighty abstruse. And I managed to come out ahead even though:

I took the Bears and gave 13.5 points to the Bucs. The Bears led 31-3 late in the third quarter and coughed up a hairball from then on.

I took the Raiders and gave 2.5 to the Rams. The Raiders scored zero points; you can’t win and cover when you score zero points.

I took the Ravens and laid 11 points against the Browns but the Ravens only won by 10.

I made sixteen Mythical Picks and the record for the week was 9-7. That would produce a Mythical Profit of $130. That makes the yearly totals come to 127-113-3 for a Mythical Profit of $390.

There is a bunch of games this weekend that are inscrutable because they involve two unreliable teams and/or the game is totally meaningless to either team. Once again, let me suggest that games of that kind are not optimal for wagering action; there isn’t any rational handicapping to be done there. Like they used to say at the end of the daily briefing on Hill Street Blues:

“Be careful out there.”

There are two particularly bad games this weekend involving a pair of not good teams. Actually, there are three games of that ilk on the card for this weekend but Minnesota/Green Bay is the Thursday Night Game and I won’t be picking that one ex post facto. I’ll trust that you can figure out which of the other two games I think will be less than wonderful viewing experiences.

Naturally, no one here would look at the season record that is “in the black” and take that as an indication that these picks come from a font of wisdom. No one should use any information here as the basis for making a wager that involves any form of negotiable currency or property that might have a value measurable in actual currency. To do that you’d have to be dumb enough to whisper in your bathroom so that you won’t wake up all the sleeping pills in the medicine chest.

(Sat Nite 12/23) KC – 6.5 at Oakland (35.5): The Raiders are a sad sack team; KC still has a shot at the playoffs although their chances would be a whole lot better if the Chiefs had not soiled themselves against the Browns – how appropriate is that? – just two weeks ago. Presumably, the Raiders will be primed for this game as it conjures up the ghosts of a fierce rivalry of the past. I say presumably because that might resonate with Art Shell and Fred Biletnikoff, but I’m not sure it means didley-squat to the players who seem to rise to the level of uninterested when viewed on the sidelines. The only part of the Raiders’ team that is decent is their defense and so I think the game can be close. I’ll hold my nose and take the Raiders with the points here only because this is a Mythical Pick. My suggestion to you is to hold your money and put it in that lockbox that Al Gore kept talking about in the election of 2000.

Tennessee at Buffalo – 4 (36.5): Both teams are 7-7 and both teams have a shot at the playoffs. No one thought that either team would be in this position back around Halloween. While the Bills have been winning with a decent defense and an unspectacular offense, the Titans have been pulling rabbits out of hats. Tennessee’s win over Indy was good but the win over Jax last weekend was a bit of a mirage. They won 24-21 but their three TDs came on interception or fumble returns. I know the old magician’s adage that it’s easy to pull a rabbit out of a hat – so long as you remembered to put the rabbit in there in the first place. Nonetheless, I think it’s time for the rabbit to disappear from the hat. I like Buffalo to win and cover here and I like the game OVER. No parlay of those two bets. And if you happen to like the Titans here, shop the line; you can find it as high as 5 at one sportsbook.

New Orleans at Giants – 3 (47.5): The last time New Orleans played in the Meadowlands, the NFL tried to convince us that the Saints were the “home team”. It began their vagabond 2005 season. They are not vagabonds this year; at the moment, they would have a bye in the first round of the playoffs and a home game (a real one in the Super Dome) in the second round. They were as flat as the chest on a runway model last week and it will behoove them not to do that again this week. The Giants have been sharp at times this year and dumber than a doorstop at other times. Last week they were dumb and the rallying cry this week is that they need to win one for their fans – in the final home game. I’ll let the Giants in on a little secret here; the fans pay your salaries; it’s always a good idea to win a game or two for them. I’m going to assume that the Saints show up to play this weekend and so I’ll take them with the points here. I also want the game OVER but no parlay, thank you very much

Carolina at Atlanta – 6.5 (40): Atlanta is still in the playoff picture in the NFC. Carolina is not mathematically eliminated, but even the equipment manager there knows that it’s over for the Panthers in 2006. The Panthers lost big to the Steelers last week and it was a total team effort. The injured and beleaguered defense gave up 37 points; the offense scored 3 points. Who will play QB for Carolina this week? Who is still healthy enough to play on the Panthers’ DL this week? Which Michael Vick will show up this weekend – “Magnificent Michael” or his evil twin? Please do not wager on this game. I’ll consult my Ouija board here and it says that it is also confused but it takes the Falcons to win and cover.

Washington at St. Louis – 2 (43.5): This is a game featuring two bad teams bound for obscurity. It’s one of the games that will identify the NFL Films crews that are on the bottom level of the pecking order there; they get to put this game in the can for posterity. The Rams – despite shutting out the Raiders last week – still give up lots of points and the Rams just don’t stop the run. Jason Campbell shows promise as an NFL QB, but the Skins’ best weapon at the moment is a power running attack. That should work very well against a Rams’ defense that is undersized and depends on eleven-year vet Le Roi Glover to control the line of scrimmage. He just can’t do that any more for 65 or 70 snaps of the ball. Even the no-account Cardinals scored 34 points on the Rams. Washington’s defense relies on players who would rather deliver a “highlight hit” than make a sure tackle, so it can be vulnerable to big plays. But I think that the Skins can control this game from start to finish if they show up ready to play and stick to the run. Give me the Skins with the points here.

Indy at Houston – 8.5 (47): The Colts have a reason to play a meaningful game here. They are tied for second place in the AFC at the moment with the Ravens; whichever team winds up with the #2 seed gets a bye week and a home game in the playoffs. A home game in the playoffs is always a desirable thing, but for Indy it’s a really big deal. So I expect them to play hard here even coming off a Monday night game and having to travel the next week. Houston has played a couple of tough games this year – just ask the Jags about that – but they also throw in a stinker or two along the way and last week’s game against the Pats was a diaperful of stink. I just don’t think the Texans have a sufficient running game to exploit the run defense weakness of the Colts and I remain convinced that the Colts passing game outclasses the Houston defense. So, even with a fat line and a team on the road after a Monday night game, I’ll take the Colts to win and cover – for Mythical Picks only.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 4 (36): Baltimore is the AFC North champion; they are in the playoffs. They are tied with the Colts for that coveted #2 spot in the AFC and have a shot at the top rung on the ladder if the Chargers stub their toe along the way because the Ravens beat the Chargers back when there were still leaves on the trees. The Steelers are not out of playoff contention but they don’t control things either. The last time these two teams met, the Ravens won 27-0 and it wasn’t nearly that close. So this line seems to reflect the Steelers’ revenge factor and their home field preference and the possibility that Kyle Boller will be under center for some if not all of the plays on offense for the Ravens. Still, in a low scoring game I’ll take the Ravens with the points here.

Tampa at Cleveland – 3 (35): This is a game featuring two bad teams bound for obscurity. It’s one of the games that will identify the NFL Films crews that are on the bottom level of the pecking order there; they get to put this game in the can for posterity. Remember when your mother tried to teach you not to say anything at all if you didn’t have anything nice to say? Yeah, my mother did too. But she didn’t have to try to write something about this open latrine trench of a game. After scoring four TDs in the final 16 minutes against the Bears last week, the Bucs will start Tim Rattay at QB instead of Bruce Gradkowski. I can’t get excited about that because Rattay has had the chance to be a starter before and he couldn’t hold the job against competition such as Alex Smith in his rookie year and Ken Dorsey. I’m underwhelmed. At the same time, the QB line-up for the Browns hardly inspires anything other than heartburn. Charlie Frye has given way to Derek Anderson; I doubt that Canton needs to take note here. It could be worse; the other QB on the Cleveland roster is the aforementioned Ken Dorsey who would only be my starting QB if my choice were between him and Tommy Dorsey – who remains dead after 50 years on the other side of the grass. I’ve procrastinated enough now; I can’t stall forever; I guess I have to make a pick. Give me the Browns at home in cold weather to win and cover here. I am tempted to take the game UNDER, but I’ll resist that temptation because I haven’t been able to resist any of the temptations to eat a ton of Christmas cookies around the house here.

Chicago – 5 at Detroit (42): This is a meaningless game. Chicago will have a first round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; Detroit is 2-12 and that record seems to be a fair representation of the level of competence on that squad. Oh, and the Lions will have to play without the guidance of DL coach, Joe Cullen, this week who will sit out a suspension for DWN (Driving While Nude) through a fast-food pick-up line. The impact of his loss is incalculable… So, what to do here? Play the team that only wants to get out of the game with no injuries and lay points in the process? Or play a team that lacks talent - an important ingredient for NFL competition - and get less than two field goals’ worth of points? My Ouija board says to take the Lions plus the points on the road. I know this game is on Christmas Eve, but hitting this pick would be a huge Christmas present for anyone wagering real cash on the game. If you are thinking of betting the game for real, ask yourself if you believe in Santa Claus to deliver that present…

New England at Jax – 3.5 (37.5): Let’s get the geography out of the way first. Jax is so much better at home than on the road that it isn’t funny. New England has had difficulties playing in Florida in the past, but those travails have usually been in southern Florida not northeastern Florida. The Jags have two really good running backs but both have some “injury issues”. It’s not certain that both can play or if they can play at anything approaching their full ability. If the Jags can’t run, they have a huge problem against the Pats’ defense. Meanwhile, the Jags defense can bring a lot of pressure and if you are going to keep the Pats in check, you have to put pressure on Tom Brady. They cannot allow him to sit back and look over the offers that came in yesterday’s mail relative to his next set of commercial endorsements before having to select which receiver got open the most. Bill Belichick’s assistant coaches tend to be in great demand as head coaches; Jack Del Rio’s right hand man on the coaching staff is Mike Tice whose nickname around the league is “Meathead”. I like the Pats with the points, thank you very much.

Arizona at SF – 4 (45): Back in August, you might have circled the game and figured that the loser would get the first pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Six weeks ago, this game looked like dog meat on the schedule. But the Niners actually are still alive in the playoff hunt and with the Seahawks playing as poorly as they have for the past two weeks, they could theoretically win the NFC West at 8-8. Arizona is a team playing out the string and wondering if Dennis Green can make it from the end of the final game on December 31st to New Year’s Day as the coach of this menagerie. Frank Gore is having a really fine season in SF and is flying totally under the radar because everyone is focused on LaDanian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson and Tiki Barber and “Fast” Willie Parker. Folks, Frank Gore has a shot at gaining 1700 yards this year and the fact that he’s going against this sorry-assed defense this week should not hurt his chances. The 49ers should be 7-8 when they wake up on Christmas morning after they win here and if Seattle loses to San Diego – as they should – the Seahawks will be only 8-7. Back in August, Mike Nolan and his staff could not have asked for a better Christmas present. I like the 49ers to win and cover here.

Cincy at Denver – 3.5 (44.5): Both teams want to be in the playoffs – but you’d never know it by the way they’ve been playing. And the team that loses here is more than likely to miss the playoffs. So, this is sort of a playoff game in terms of the teams’ needing to win to play on; and that makes this the best game of the week. The Broncos finally won a game after losing four in a row; that sounds like a turnaround except the beat the Cardinals and that almost doesn’t count. The Bengals have a short week and have to travel to Denver after laying a huge egg on MNF against the Colts. The winner here has the inside track to the wild card slot. On one hand, you are asking a banged-up Denver defense to shut down Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmenzadeh and Chris Henry for a second consecutive week. On the other hand, you are asking a very inconsistent Bengals’ pass defense to stop a Denver offense being run by a raw rookie QB. I have no idea how this game will play out so I’ll consult the Ouija board now. It says take the game OVER.

San Diego – 4 at Seattle (46.5): San Diego is in a happy place now; they lead the AFC; if the playoffs started now, they would get a week off and then play any and all future games in Qualcomm Stadium. A loss to Seattle could jeopardize all that because the Ravens own the tiebreaker over the Chargers. So, the Chargers have something to play for. Seattle needs a win to wrap up the NFC West; that gives them a tangible reason to play hard. I don’t think that will be sufficient here. I also think that this line is significantly smaller than it would be on a neutral field because the betting public still thinks, “the Seahawks never lose at home”. That used to be close to true, but if you look carefully at the results for this year, the Seahawks have already lost two games outright at Qwest Field. I think San Diego is a significantly better team and that it will show up ready to play. When Seattle loses here and San Francisco wins against the Cards, the final week will make or break the NFC West champion. The schedule favors Seattle because the 49ers have to travel to Denver while the Seahawks travel to Tampa Bay. But you never know… And if they both wind up 8-8, the 49ers win the West because they swept the Seahawks this year. I’ll take the Chargers to win and cover here.

(Mon 12/25) Philly at Dallas – 7 (46): This game starts at 5:00 EST (2:00 on the West Coast) on Christmas Day. How’s that working out for the family Christmas dinner? The winner of this game will be the leader in the NFC East because if the Eagles win, they’ll own the tiebreakers over Dallas with a season sweep and a better Division record. I just don’t think that’s gonna happen. The Eagles will need a super-human effort from their defense to keep this game close enough to pull out in the fourth quarter because I don’t see them getting a dumb game plan or a bunch of bone-headed play calling from the Cowboys’ staff this week – as they did from the Giants staff last week. I like Dallas to win and cover here. I also like this game OVER. No parlay though

(Mon 12/25) Jets at Miami – 3 (36.5): This game starts at 8:30 EST (5:30 on the West Coast) on Christmas Day. How’s that working out for the family Christmas dinner? Miami could have set this game up as big one as they pushed toward the playoffs – had they not wet the bed against the Bills last weekend. Joey Harrington was so bad they replaced him with Cleo Lane at QB; given that the Dolphins were shut out, they would have done just as well with Miss Cleo or Lois Lane. The Jets can get to 10 wins for the year with a victory here and a season ending win over the Raiders in the Meadowlands. There are three other teams at 8-6 in the AFC; Jax has to play the Pats this week and the Chiefs the next; Cincy plays Denver this week so one of them will be a loser. A win here will go a LONG way to putting the Jets in the playoffs. So, I’ll take the Jets with the points here.

Good luck.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…